Posted on 05/02/2023 2:52:04 PM PDT by Widget Jr
Putin is terrified for his life- this is the claim by a former FSB officer who has now defected to the west and brought startling intelligence with him that could shape the course of the Ukraine war. Since the war in Ukraine started, Russia has experienced a mass exodus of people from its country- most notably young, military age men. An estimated 1 million Russians- or around .6% of the total population, have fled the country since the start of Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine.This mass exodus has been disastrous for Russia's future, as many of the people who fled were entrepeneurs and those with technical skills. Russia's IT industry alone has experienced a catastrophic worker shortage, crippling the nation's future economy.
However, lesser known to the public is a similar exodus from Russia's military. Since the war began, thousands of Russians have willingly surrendered- to the point that now the Russian military is threatening anyone who surrenders without cause with execution. While this is to be expected of the rank and file soldiers, many of which are conscripts who didn't choose to fight in the war, what's more surprising is the number of high ranking Russian defectors. A 3 star Russian general defected months into the war, his identity continues to remain a secret as he remains under the protection of NATO security services.
Russia's Federal Security Bureau, its equivalent to the American CIA and sucessor to the KGB, has been rife with defections. According to one defector, the environment inside Russia's top spy agency in the wake of Putin's disastrous invasion has been one of quote- every man for himself. This is hardly surprising given what we learned early in the war, when Putin punished the FSB for its massive intelligence failure inside of Ukraine.Putin kept his invasion plan a secret from almost all of his government save for a select few officials. He did not include his security services in this plan, and instead tasked them with finding out what sort of reception the Russian army could expect from Ukrainians if there was to be an invasion, and how many would be willing to collaborate. According to unconfirmed reports, the FSB officers tasked with the assignment took the millions of rubles allocated to the mission and pocketed most of it for themselves, then simply fabricated glowing reports about Ukrainians greeting Russians with open arms.
Based on this incredibly faulty information, Putin planned his invasion, and it's very likely that this was the direct cause for the catastrophic assault on Kyiv. One can hardly blame the FSB agents for pocketing the money allocated to their operation and simply inventing field reports. After all, talk of an invasion of Ukraine after the successful annexation of Crimea in 2014 was not uncommon, and as for the stealing of the money- well Russia's entire political, military, and intelligence system is built on corruption.
What the FSB couldn't imagine was that Putin was serious, and while reports of the FSB's failure remain unconfirmed and likely will for years after the war, what is known is that senior FSB officers were put in prison shortly after the invasion. Others were placed under house arrest. The unraveling credibility of the FSB and Putin's growing anger as the invasion turned into a massive disaster led to a dog-eat-dog attitude within the spy agency, with agents more concerned with their personal survival- either professional or sometimes literally-than with accomplishing the mission at hand.
Inevitably, this prompted many FSB officers to defect to the west, and to ensure they would receive a warm reception, they made sure to come with gifts. Vladimir Osechkin is an exiled human rights activist living in the west. While in Russia he worked as an investigative journalist and anti-corruption activist, making him an enemy of the state. Forced to flee, Osechkin now works to help others defect to the west- but on one condition: they must bring with them something to aid in taking down the Russian state.
For military and intelligence officers, this means secret or at least sensitive intelligence. In 2011, Osechkin founded Gulagu.net to target corruption and torture inside of Russia. His agency has launched multiple investigations into various Russian institutions and government ministries, including taking on the nefarious Russian prison system.
The Gulagu project has been exceeding expectations, not just in exposing secrets, but in bringing those secrets to light in the eyes of the people who matter most: other Russians. One group of FSB officers was so disgusted at Gulagu's discoveries that the men all turned whistleblowers.
After the invasion of Ukraine though, Russians seeking the aid of Osechkin's organization to fleet to the west exploded in number. Most were ordinary Russians, from professional soldiers who no longer wanted to fight in a senseless war to conscripts forced to do so. However, some of the Russians seeking aid were far more important and valuable to western intelligence agencies- among them the previously mentioned 3-star general and even a government minister, both of which remain hidden away by NATO security services for their own protection. And the threat to their lives is very serious, as Russia is notorious for aggressively pursuing defectors and critics of the regime.
Alexander Litvinenko, former officer in the KGB and later its sucessor the FSB, defected to the UK and brought with him bombshell allegations that Russia was targeting Russian critics abroad, as he was ordered to kill a Russian businessman and former Duma legislator, Boris Berezovsky. Berezovsky fled Russia after the election of Vladimir Putin and has been highly critical of the new Russian president ever since. In retaliation for his defection, Litvinenko was poisoned with polonium-210 in a cafe in London. The brash attack, which left radioactive contamination across the city as the assassins carried the polonium around, led to a diplomatic crisis between Russia and Great Britain. But Russia would not be deterred, and in 2018 carried out another brazen assassination attempt inside Britain. This time the assassination targeted Sergei Skripal and his daughter, a former Russian military intelligence officer and secret British double agent. Arrested in 2004 by Russia's FSB, he was sentenced to 13 years in prison but would be released in a spy swap in 2010.
This time the tool of choice was a nerve agent sprayed via a dispenser, which would also poison a police officer who found the two unconcious. Luckily for all, they would survive albeit with lasting damage to their health. Sadly, the disguised perfume bottle used in the poisoning would be found in a trash can later by a man who gave it to his partner. When she sprayed it on her wrist she fell ill within minutes and died shortly after.
Vladimir Osechkin would receive the same treatment from Russia, with at least two different attempts on his life. In one of the attempts, Osechkin spotted the tell-tale red laser of a weapon sight dancing across his dining room wall as he brought dinner plates to his seated children and wife. Ducking for cover, the Russian assassin instead fired on responding French police officers who maintain a constant watch on Osechkin.
Since the war started and Osechkin has become more vocal against the Putin regime, the attempts have continued- though tip-offs have helped him avoid death more than once. On a recent incident a tip-off via text message simply read: “Vladimir, be careful. There has already been an offer for an advance payment to eliminate you.”
In exchange for his help, Osechkin received intelligence from the various arms of the Russian government, which he promptly passes along to NATO intelligence agencies. Recently, Osechkin helped former senior FSB lieutenant Emran Navruzbekov to defect, and in exchange received details on ongoing FSB intelligence operations inside of Europe. One of these operations was the identification of foreign fighters seeking to enter Ukraine to aid in the war, “terrorists” as Russia has called them.
The ultimate goal is unknown, but it's possible Russia could have been looking to kill would-be volunteers before arriving in Ukraine in order to deter the flow of foreigners seeking to join the fight against Russia.
One of the big revelations from Osechkin's growing list of defectors is the extent to which the FSB is involved in the politics of the Russian military. The agency has rooted itself deep in the Russian military, even to the point of directly influencing individual units. This has great political value for a regime built on blackmail and corruption, but is destructive for troop morale as well as unit cohesion.
And a growing list of intelligence on the Russian military itself paints a very disturbing picture for Russia's armed forces. Since the start of the war it's become clear that the Russian military is not a single unified structure.
Western militaries are single entities who unite their recruits under one banner and one doctrine. The United States for example has 50 states, but when a volunteer enters basic training and then joins an active military unit, they do so as part of a collective unified under one banner. This is not the case in Russia.
Rather than unifying their military, Russia largely leaves it up to each individual republic to recruit, train, and often even equip their contribution to the larger Russian military. This has led to catastrophic problems with unit cohesion, morale, and standardization of both equipment and tactics. But disunity in the Russian armed forces is not a flaw, it's a feature. Inside of Ukraine there is not one Russian military fighting for control of the country, but multiple different entities generally fighting for the same goal.
Of most prominent note is the regular army itself which consists of professional volunteers and professional volun-tolds, or conscripts, who make up the bulk of Russia's military power. However, private military companies make up a significant amount of Russia's on-the-ground forces, and like any private, for-profit enterprise, they are heavily discouraged from working cooperatively with each other or the Russian military.
Chief amongst the PMCs inside Ukraine is the Wagner mercenary group and Patriot. One is owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the other by Sergei Shoigu, and although they both own mercenary groups, the two are worlds apart from each other. Wagner is a brute-force army that recruits from prisons, while Patriot is made up of Russia's most elite former soldiers- typically special operators and the like. While a Wagner recruit would be lucky to make a few hundred bucks a month, Patriot pays as much as $15,000 US a month for two-month contracts, making it high risk but very high reward for its members.
Naturally, the two groups hate each other, even to the point of sabotage- the extent of which, revealed by Wagner and Russian government defectors, is shocking. There are strong reasons to suspect that Wagner purposefully leaks the location of political opponents to Ukrainian forces, who in turn target them for precision strikes.
The internal war between the two factions, which has spilled out into the public sphere with Prigozhin continously attacking the ministry of defense, has likely done more to sabotage the Russian war effort than Ukraine could have hoped to with its own intelligence operations. And the rivalry has deadly battlefield consequences beyond sabotage- during the Battle for Vuhledar, which has become the largest tank battle of the war, neither of the three groups involved- Wagner, the Russian army, or Patriot- shared information with each other. This led to all three groups falling for the same Ukrainian ambushes time and time again.
But Wagner defectors have also brought with them some horrifying stories about the group's violence against both civilians and itself, as well as the way it operates. One defector fled Russia with the help of a human rights organization by crossing the Russian-Norway border. He was recruited from a prison where he was serving a three year sentence, and having grown up on the streets, saw Wagner as his only real option in life. He detailed stories about lack of training and leadership. According to him, his unit did not receive training or instruction in how to carry out military operations on an objective. Instead, his unit was told to capture an objective and then left to figure out how on its own. This has been evident in the constant human wave attacks launched against Ukraine's defenses in Bakhmut, where the Ukrainian army has inflicted horrible losses on Wagner.
The defector also detailed how Wagner keeps its troops in line. Wagner is no longer allowed to recruit from prisons- a move brought on by the fact that the Russian defense ministry is now doing it itself. In February a news story broke of the capture of Russian convicts who claimed it was the Russian Ministry of Defense who had taken over recruitment. One such recruit, Viktor Sevalnev, had been in jail for armed robbery and assault when he was sent to fight in Ukraine. He sent a message to his wife after surviving a fatal attempt to take an objective, saying, “I am being taken to be shot. I lost a lot of people there. Remember this: do not send more people here. It's enough, they want to kill us all.” His wife would never hear from him again, and days later was presented with his body.
However, while prison recruitment was ongoing, Wagner had a distinct way of keeping them in line. Upon arriving in Ukraine, new recruits would be called into formation and then forced to watch as a would-be defector, or someone who had refused to obey orders, was executed in front of them. This was meant to instill fear and bring the consequences home: once in Ukraine, you do was you're told or you will be killed.
And the methods of execution were famously gruesome- as Wagner has a reputation of using sledgehammers for the task. While involved in Syria, a video of Wagnerites crushing a Syrian man's legs, hands, and feet using a sledgehammer, all as the Russians laughed, went viral. The Syrian was eventually executed with a blow to the head. Now Russian Wagner recruits are facing the same consequences for retreating or disobeying a direct order.
But that's only for those who manage to survive the use of blocking forces by both Wagner and the Russian military. A tactic pulled straight out of the World War II Soviet play book, Russia is so desperate to avoid losing more ground on the battlefield that it has taken to the use of blocking forces- units set directly to the rear of an assault, with orders to kill anyone who retreats from the assault wave.
This is again, not surprising, given that Russian defectors have also brought news of how conscripts and even professional soldiers have been getting creative about not following orders. A common practice amongst units is to simply fake contact with Ukrainian forces, firing their weapons at nothing while calling in a contact report over the radio. Others however have taken to more creative approaches, such as sabotaging their own equipment and even vehicles, or simply dumping fuel. The practice was very popular at the height of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Brutal punishments for sabotage have been introduced, but some soldiers still risk the punishment over heading to almost certain death.
But it's been the flow of well-placed or high ranking Russian defectors that has been an intelligence gold mine for the west. Often these individuals might not even be aware of the value of the intelligence that they bring, or have nothing specific to bring with them. But even the smallest details can open up a window into the shadow workings of the Kremlin. One former FSB doctor defected to the west and brought with her medical records and taped conversations with senior officials. Her medical records documented how a Russian military intelligence officer had been diagnosed with malaria, allowing her western handler to identify an ongoing secret operation in Africa.
Her taped conversations detailed how Chechen officials are being largely given judicial impunity inside of Russia itself- something which would surely anger most Russians to hear. However, Putin is desperate to keep Chechnya under control, given its two disastrous wars against the rebellious province in the last thirty years.
Other taped conversations, secretly recorded on her cell phone, revealed government officials secretly discussing the ongoing collapse of the Russian armed forces- giving a direct insight into just how long Russia may or may not be able to continue fighting in Ukraine.
However, one recent defector has given the west a unique view directly into the life of Vladimir Putin himself, painting a portrait of a deeply disturbed dictator with a very loose grasp on what's really going on in his own military.
Gleb Karakulov was an FSO communications officer who worked directly alongside Putin on foreign trips for years. His job was to set up secure communications for the traveling president in order to keep him in contact with his own government and military. However, after seeing how the war in Ukraine started to play out, and perhaps sensing big troubles ahead for Russia, Karakulov decided it was time to flee.
Karakulov stated that after the invasion of Ukraine he changed his plans- originally he'd planned to serve his time in the FSO, the Russian equivalent of the American Secret Service, and retire. However, his conscience got the better of him as reports of Russian atrocities poured in, and in his own words, he could no longer serve a war criminal.
Shortly after the start of the war, Karakulov says that he took three months of sick leave as he came to grips with the ongoing war. That was when he started making plans to flee Russia, but his passport had expired and it would take time to renew it. Meanwhile he was forced to continue his job as a communications specialist. While working he sat in on discussions amongst other senior officers discussing the war and savoring the atrocities being committed. Karakulov says he was disgusted, but while he could terminate his contract, when the mobilization began he realized he could just end up being mobilized and sent to the front, so he decided to remain in the FSO.
Then he discovered that he'd been assigned to a trip to Astana in Kazakhstan, and he knew it would be his only chance to make an escape. On October 6th, ahead of a visit by Putin, Karakulov and his team were sent to Kazakhstan to prepare the location for his arrival.
Karakulov’s wife and daughter remained behind in Moscow for three days, and then joined him in Kazakhstan. In order to avoid raising suspicion, she stayed at a different hotel and the two only contacted each other once before making their getaway. Karakulov kept postponing the escape attempt as complicating factors kept popping up- but then on the morning of October 14th he was told he would need to hand in his external passport, as the team was due to return home the next day. Time was up, Karakulov couldn't wait any longer.
When the day of their escape came, he sent his wife to his hotel to grab his suitcase, as it would be suspicious for him to be seen departing his hotel with a suitcase. Claiming that he was going to go souvenir shopping, Karakulov excused himself from his team, and at 3pm he and his wife fled to the airport. However, their flight was delayed and Karakulov's phone was blowing up with text messages from his team asking where he was. He delayed suspicion by claiming he was feeling sick, but as the minutes dragged on it was becoming more and more obvious that Karakulov was defecting. Finally, they were able to board the flight for Instanbul, and upon landing Karakulov turned on his phone to see text messages from very angry agents. But at last he was safe, and free to tell the world what he knew about Putin.
According to Karakulov, Putin has placed his yes men well, and his bosses in the FSO, quote- worshipped Putin. Nobody dares criticize him and he is referred to as “the Boss” by all senior officers. However, Putin's yes-men are also his only source of information. According to Karakulov, Putin doesn't travel with a mobile phone nor use the internet at all. The Russian dictator lives in a complete information vacuum, relying only on his intelligence reports and, perhaps unsurprisingly, Russian propaganda for his information.
In another report, Karakulov said that Putin demands that Russian television be made available no matter where he goes. This lines up perfectly with what the west has theorized about the Russian dictator.
Shortly after the invasion of Ukraine, it became clear just how bad the Russian military was at its job. Poor tactics, even worst doctrine, and equipment in horrible states of disrepair. Multimillion dollar aircraft were falling out of the sky due to lack of maintenance, and the Russian military was wholly incapable of integrated operations between its various branches, even down to the unit level. Only an absolute madman would have sent such a force to invade Ukraine- or one who lived in an information vacuum where the only reports were those shaped by his closest yes-men. And like in any dictatorship, nobody wants to tell the boss something bad, so the Russian military's deficiencies were never made known to Putin.
However, Russia is such a deeply corrupt state that it's almost certaint even Putin's closest confidants were themselves unaware of just how bad things were. Trickle down economics may be a Reagan myth, but trickle down orruption is very real, and when you create an entire culture of corruption at the very top, it's bound to roll downhill to the individual unit level. Thus the only people who truly knew what terrible shape the Russian armed forces were in, were thoses on the lowest rung of the totem pole- and they weren't about to tell their bosses the truth.
Such a culture almost always leads to the downfall of nations, and destroys militaries from the inside out. Putin's information vacuum dooms any chance at reform, and spells disaster for Russia's continued war in Ukraine. However, Karakulov also gives us insight into Putin's mental state. According to the former security services officer, Putin lives in a state of paranoia, fearful for his life. For years he has kept mostly to his private residences, which the Russian public jokingly calls his 'bunkers'.
However, there may be more truth to this than you think, as a paranoid Putin apparently demanded secure communications be wired into an actual bunker during a trip to Kazakhstan. It's long been theorized that Putin is afraid of getting Covid, and that's why he makes everyone stand so far away from him during official meetings. However, Karakulov paints a picture of a man who has been terrified of assassins for years, and given the state of Russian politics, this is hardly surprising. Unfortunately for the world though, Karakulov also says that Putin appears to be in excellent health despite his age. So there doesn’t seem to be any hope of him croaking anytime soon. In 13 years, Karakulov says that only two trips were canceled due to him being ill.
The topic of Putin's personal life is a mysterious one, including his direct family. It's known that he has children, but Karakulov says that not much is known about them aside from the fact that his daughters have security personnel assigned to them. He was unable to offer any insight into how often Putin sees his children, if ever at all. However, rumors of Putin owning lavish homes are true, as confirmed by one of Karakulov's colleagues who regularly goes to a lavish palacial mansion owned by Putin in order to test communications. He also confirmed that Putin owned the Scheherazade yacht, news of which broke after the invasion of Ukraine.
Karakulov also revealed that a paranoid Putin started to prefer traveling in special trains disguised as regular trains sometime in 2014. This was so he could avoid traveling by plane, as they could be easily tracked. It's much more difficult to find out the origin of a train- especially when it's been camouflaged to secretly hold the leader of Russia. In order to confuse foreign intelligence and prevent attempts on his life, Putin also frequently faked leaving for travel via plane. His security services would stage an elaborate show of getting the President to his plane, only to have it take off with no one on board. A fan of boats though, Putin also has secure communications installed onto several vessels, each lavishly decorated- though Karakulov believes that only some of these are on the official government balance sheet, helping confirm rumors of Putin's vast wealth, nearly all of which was stolen from the Russian people.
Karakulov remains under the protection of NATO intelligence, with his exact location a closely guarded secret. While his insights into Putin are greatly illuminating, Karakulov's value to NATO is also in his detailed knowledge of Russian secure communications equipment and practices, making him one more in a growing list of very high value defectors.
Comments, questions, informed critiques, angry ranting and raving?
Tear Collection Kits available at poster's expense.
🇺🇦 Слава Україні! 🇺🇦 Sláva Ukrayíni! 🇺🇦 ☭ No CCCP 2.0 ☭
Since early April, when Pentagon briefing slides about the state of the Ukrainian army 'leaked' onto the web, the writing in 'western' media about the much discussed Ukrainian counteroffensive has become more gloomy.The hyping is largely gone and the assessments become more realistic. Three days ago the London Times offered a piece in that category:
Ukraine isn’t ready for its big offensive, but it has no choice (paywalled, archived version)
Kyiv is locked into a spring or summer push despite burning through ammo so fast that the West can’t keep up.
[W]hile the Ukrainians are moving quickly to assimilate their 230 new and reconditioned western tanks and 1,550 armoured vehicles, they still lack proper air defences for any big offensive operation. That puts them at risk from Russian airpower. Western defence sources are also uncertain whether senior commanders can adapt to the new systems as well as their soldiers on the ground.
Yet Kyiv has little real choice but to launch a major spring or summer offensive. Its leaders are increasingly boxed in. As an American defence official put it: “The Ukrainians have surprised us as well as Putin in the past, but have much less room for manoeuvre now . . . and the Russians know it.”
President Zelensky has managed the West with great skill, but to maintain its support he has to show what Washington insiders rather tastelessly call a “return on investment”.
He must also balance domestic politics. Hawks such as Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, prevent any meaningful talk about negotiations, even though some in the government think now is the time to put out feelers. One western diplomat in Kyiv described a “surreal parallel experience” as his interlocutors “discuss potential formats for negotiations one evening” and then “shout that there can be no talks with Russia” in public the next day.
During the war Kiev first burned through its standing army material and personnel. It then received a large amount of Soviet era equipment from former Warsaw Pact members and burned through that stash. It has now received 'western' arms for a third army that will largely consist of mobilized civilians with little military experience. After the counteroffensive has run its course, no matter the outcome, that third army will largely be destroyed. There will be no more material and personnel for a fourth army.
What is the INFOGRAPHICS SHOW???
Guess we’ll find out soom enough,eh Jacko?
So let’s see.
Few nations are NOT experiencing huge problems today.
MOA likes whistling past the graveyard before the funeral. They read into everything they use what they want to believe.
When the counter offensive happens, then we will know. Everything else is just guessing.
Click the link, look around, think, figure it out.
When they get to Stalinesque numbers, the alarm will mean something. By my count, they have at least 30 million more to go.
The spring summer fall winter offensive is coming...
So it's a cartoon show for low IQ'ers?
Wow! Usually if I see a really long post I’ll get to a point where they are repeating themselves and then just scan the rest, but that was not the case here. There was no repeating. It just kept getting worse. Thanks for posting this information.
Your welcome. The situation in Ukraine is obviously severe. What is fascinating is how the manufactured Russian mythos is falling apart, and it is mostly the Russian government’s fault.
Puty is dumber than a box of rocks. Did he think everyone was going to jump onto his death train? Total moron.
China will happily repopulate Russia (as well as every other country it takes over).
Ukraine ping
[Puty is dumber than a box of rocks. Did he think everyone was going to jump onto his death train? Total moron.]
What a joke. Do you even know a Ukrainian? Have you been there? Do you have Ukrainian relatives? If you’re so motivated for Ukraine’s bloody border, why won’t you defend our border In the US?
Bad news for Putin is good news for the world!
“www.moonofalabama.org”
Ironic that you support Billmon, the guy behind your site.
Billmon was a stalwart supporter of John McCain and the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ that was orchestrated by McCain and Obama. In particular they orchestrated the civil war in Syria which was intended to deprive Russia of their base in the Med and to facilitate the Qatar/Saudi gas pipeline to Europe and undercut Russian gas exports.
Please, carry on supporting this useful idiot. I approve.
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