Globalism / Great Reset –
U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman signed a letter with 31 other members of Congress on Friday demanding answers from the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) about a newly proposed rule that would allow buying and selling of undefined “rights” to certain private and public lands, including to foreign nations.
The SEC proposal would let investors buy into the stock market companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) for the purpose of protecting nature — including public lands — and making money.
The proposal, if passed, would clear the way for the NYSE to offer this new kind of investment known as “natural asset companies,” or NACs.
Once in control of the land, NACs will be prohibited from engaging in “unsustainable activities” like energy production, logging and grazing; however, farming would still be allowed.
Hageman said the purpose of this rule is to end all economic activity on the lands.
OBSERVATION - This is just another of a growing means to withdraw lands from the public use - resources and all. Parallel methods started with the Nature Conservancy in the 80’s buying rights to property to prohibit development in perpetuity. Today its mega billionaires like Gates and BlackWater gobbling up terrain. Since these ‘rights’ are not defined by law, there is a wide latitude for abuse.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Biden administration is removing the Reconciliation Monument in Arlington. The monument was built 109 years ago to honor post-Civil War reconciliation and national unity.
OBSERVATION - This is not about the Confederate states or army, but about reconciliation and the ongoing attempt by the left to paint the right as white supremcists, laying out the philosophical groundwork for CW2.
***
NBC News reporter Ken Dilanian cited FBI statistics showing that crime rates across the U.S. are in decline, saying that the 77% of Americans who believe that crime is getting worse are being “conditioned” by social media and news outlets to see it that way.
In the piece, titled “Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They’re wrong,” Dilanian wrote, “Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data that contradicts a widespread national perception that law-breaking and violence are on the rise.”
OBSERVATION - Keyed into the massive and deliberate neutering of our police and justice system, MSM now trying to gaslight us into thinking there is no increase in crime!! Another example of cherrypicking the data, data that has of recent years been manipulated to rule out various crimes. This is just setting the stage for later govt actions that are designed to cause the sheeple to flock to it.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
The Secure Community Network, which coordinates security for Jewish institutions nationwide, said early Sunday that it had tracked 199 threats over the past 24 hours, with nearly 100 in California and 62 in Arizona. Synagogues in at least 17 states plus Washington, D.C., were affected, according to local media reports.
None of the threats were deemed credible after local investigations. But some of them caused significant disruption: A Boulder, Colorado, synagogue evacuated its Shabbat morning services on Saturday, for example, while a congregation in western Massachusetts canceled its Sunday religious school.
Economy-
A surge of avian flu has hit many producers forcing the culling of flocks and is expected to drive the prices af eggs and poultry higher. Secondary effects will raise prices of foods containing eggs and chicken.
***
Kalifornia has gone from a record surplus to a record deficit in one year. That means all state agencies will have to curtain all non-critical expense for over six months, until the current fiscal year ends next Summer, on June 30, 2024.
OBSERVATION - Continues feckless spending by the state, combined with the massive outflow of tax paying citizens and the reverberations of the economic slowdown over the past year have come home. This is only the tip of the iceberg folks, as there is also a massive debt the state has accrued over the decades it keeps papering over. The 68 Billion deficit is easily compared to the 90+ billion over charge for the high speed train to no where.
***
In the latest economic projections released Friday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated the U.S. successfully evaded a recession in 2023. The government agency predicted the U.S. will also likely avoid a recession in 2024, although it does project continued sluggish economic growth for the next year. The CBO forecasts a 1.5% expansion in real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024, a decrease from this year’s 2.5% growth, attributing the drop mainly to a deceleration in consumer spending and commercial construction. In the labor market, unemployment rates are predicted to rise slightly from the current 3.9% to 4.4% by the end of 2024, but will still maintain healthy levels with slight workforce growth largely propelled by immigrant labor.
OBSERVATION - Color me skeptical. Many of these numbers and conclusions are being debated by other economists and businesses like Bloomberg. These numbers are likely cooked to try to put the best face on biden’s disastrous economic policies going into the election year.
***
(FO) President of Rosenberg Research & Associates David Rosenberg said that many economists and analysts are ignoring the obvious economic risks next year, and he’s now predicting a 90% chance of a U.S. recession. Rosenberg’s team expects “real [economic] growth of no better than 1% and quite possibly zero… That is rare but not unprecedented: We saw this in 1949, 1954, 1958, 2008, and 2009 – all recessions,” he wrote in a recent research note to clients.
OBSERVATION - Contrast to the CBO happy talk above. The verdict is still out on a 2024 recession.
***
White House Economic Adviser Lael Brainard said a strong job market, higher productivity, and easing supply chain pressures mean that President Biden’s policies are beating inflation.
OBSERVATION - This has been largely driven by reductions in fuel costs- a factor that can change within literally hours now if an event (war, etc) threatens supplies, etc. The budgets of americans continue to be maxed out, savings dropping, credit card debt rising and housing costs continue to be elevated beyond the reach of most. Brainard also overlooks the massive fed debt and juggling act the Treasury dept is doing to keep things from flying apart. This is nothing more than an attempted victory lap going into the 2024 election year.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Three US destroyers entered Mediterranean Sea via Strait of Gibraltar recently.
USS Laboon (DDG-58): Dec. 11
USS Delbert D. Black (DDG-119): Dec. 14
USS The Sullivans (DDG-68): Dec. 17
US officials would not comment on if they are heading to Red Sea.
Biden / Harris Watch –
A black motorist stuck a Secret Service SUV moments after Biden walked out of his campaign headquarters in Delaware . The driver of the car is reportedly cooperating with Secret Service Agents.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegals in NYC are complaining about their free food and free shelter. Typical.
China –
Taiwan reported exceptionally low numbers of air and naval incursion numbers this weekend despite no bad weather. National elections are a month away and China may be holding back pending an aggressive push at election time to intimidate voters away from the current pro-independence party that is leading in the polls.
North/South Korea –
Following the test of a shorter range missile on Sunday night, North Korea fired a ballistic missile toward East Sea, South Korean military says. The missile flew about 570 km on a high transjectory flight path before landing in East Sea after a flight of approximately 70 minutes.
The South reported the missile flew up rather than across, a method Pyongyang has previously said it employs in some weapons tests to avoid flying over neighboring countries.
Japan’s defense ministry said it was an ICBM-class missile with a potential range covering all of the United States.
“The ICBM-class ballistic missile launched this time, if calculated based on the trajectory, depending on weight of warhead, could have a flying range of over 15,000 kilometres (9,320 miles),” said Shingo Miyake, parliamentary vice-minister of defense. “In which case the whole of the US territory would be within the range.”
North Korea has previously test-fired four ICBMS this year. The last time was in July, when it launched its solid-fuel Hwasong-18.
The Hwasong-18, which was first test-fired in April, is North Korea’s first ICBM to use solid fuel, which makes it easier to transport and faster to launch than liquid-fuelled versions. Military analysts are evaluating the launch to see if it was a Hwasong-18 or other rocket.
Security advisers of South Korea, Japan, U.S. condemn North Korea ICBM launch as ‘flagrant’ breach of UNSC resolutions.
OBSERVATION - As noted, a high transjectory flight allows testing of the whole flight pattern without having to overshoot Japan or have monitoring stations down range. This high flight profile may be used in the future to test a nuclear warhead, exploding well outside the earth’s atmosphere, avoiding some serious retaliatory consequences. However, depending on the altitude and yield, Japan and other nations in the region, could suffer the effects from a nuclear EMP. That could also trigger SK, US and others to launch strikes against NK, triggering a war on the peninsula.
***
Satellite imagery suggests that North Korea may be in the process of building an airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. Should work be underway to develop a North Korean AEW&C capability, the result could well provide a very useful addition to Pyongyang’s armory, especially the potential to offer advance warning of aircraft and missile strikes launched from the south.
The images show an Ilyushin Il-76 Candid airlifter parked at Pyongyang International Airport. Work can be seen being undertaken on the top of its fuselage, just aft of the wing, where a radome is mounted on other AEW&C versions of the type.
The KPAF is well known for its aging fleet of mainly Soviet-era aircraft, supplemented by a few Western types acquired by mainly nefarious means. Its most modern combat equipment comprises MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters and it still flies Shenyang F-5s, Chinese-made versions of the MiG-17 Fresco fighter, first flown in 1950, before the outbreak of the Korean War.
OBSERVATION - This is one realm where NK is receiving technical help from Russia as part of its munitions package for the Ukraine war. Given the ancientness of its airfare, NK may be tooling this aircraft for more of an intel collection platform as well as an enhancement of its early warning systems.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Economic Impact –
Russia’s central bank has today raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16%, hiking borrowing costs for the fifth meeting in a row under stubborn inflation pressure from widespread labour shortages, high lending and the weak rouble.
The central bank has now raised rates by 850 basis points since July, including an unscheduled emergency hike in August as the rouble tumbled past 100 to the dollar and the Kremlin called for tighter monetary policy.
The bank said pro-inflationary risks over the medium-term horizon remained substantial and warned that stabilising inflation near its 4% target would require high rates for a long time.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 Shahed drones overnight - slow night.
Russian forces continued to press the northeastern margin of the Adviivka salient.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations.
Russia to continue its localized attacks, but still lacks sufficient artillery support to overcome Ukraine defenses and allow its soldiers to move past its front line positions in any meaningful manner - all the while taking heavy losses in men and material.
Moldova/Transnistria -
On December 17, the Moldovan army began training near the Ukrainian border in Odesa and its Transnistrian region, which in March of last year the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe officially declared a zone of Russian occupation, - the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Moldova.
OBSERVATION - this is a big step, previously the country listed essentially no army but a police force.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbia’s governing populists claimed a sweeping victory in Sunday’s snap parliamentary elections.
According to a near-complete preliminary tally published Monday by the state election commission, President Aleksandar Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won 47% of the vote.
The largest opposition group, Serbia Against Violence (SPN), picked up 23%.
Vucic’s name was not on the ballot, as it was not a presidential election, but the vote was widely seen as a referendum on his leadership after a turbulent year for the country.
Tensions with neighboring Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008, have escalated. And two back-to-back mass shootings claimed the lives of 18 people in Serbia.
OBSERVATION - Moscow was quick to congratulate Vucic. This victory may cause Serbia to become even more aggressive towards Kosovo in the coming year, especially if NATO gets further bogged down by Ukraine, a growing migrant problem and economic woes.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF uncovers a massive underground tunnel network large enough to drive a vehicle thru. Located within 400 meters of the northern border between Gaza and Israel.
- Increasing rumors of another possible cease fire and hostage release for prisoners.
- Shipping thru the Red Sea coming to a standstill due to Houthi attacks.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Continued international calls for a ceasefire.
***
The Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) on Monday announced that Iran and Hezbollah were behind the cyber attack last month against Ziv Medical Center in Safed.
According to the INCD, the goal was not only to harm the specific hospital’s operations, but to damage Israel’s resilience as a whole mid-war when many hospitals have been overloaded with handling larger numbers than usual of wounded soldiers.
The hack was partially successful and partially unsuccessful.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Locally intense fighting and aerial bombardments.
***
The biggest Hamas terrorist tunnel to date has been discovered. This massive tunnel system branches out and spans well over four kilometers (2.5 miles). Its entrance is located only 400 meters (1,310 feet) from the Erez Crossing—used by Gazans on a daily basis to enter Israel for work and medical treatment in Israeli hospitals.
This tunnel system was a project led by Mohammad Sinwar, the brother of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and the commander of Hamas’ Khan Yunis Battalion. It is large enough to drive a vehicle in.
Further evidence of the use of a coring machine, similar to one discovered by the IDF when they discovered a Hezbollah tunnel near the Lebanese border.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli launched airstrikes in the Damascus area. No details as of yet as to the targets. Recent targets have been the airport, but common targets are Iranian / Hezbollah storage facilities in the area.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Oil giant BP is suspending all shipping through the Red Sea due to the “deteriorating security situation”. It comes after major shipping firms Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd & CMA CGM Group all decided to pause shipping through there amid Houthi rocket/missile/drone attacks on vessels
U.S. military official: “We are aware of reports and can confirm that on Dec. 18, at approximately 9 am(Sanaa time) the M/V SWAN ATLANTIC was attacked by multiple projectiles and that the USS Carney responded to the distress call in Southern Red Sea.” The M/V Swan Atlantic attack is the most recent in the Red Sea.
Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority: 55 ships have been redirected through the Cape of Good Hope since November
Evergreen Shipping Company announces that it will temporarily stop accepting the transportation of Israeli goods
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egypt is heavily reinforcing its border protection with Gaza to keep Hamas and refugees out.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is relatively routine.
The Houthi have successfully executed their ‘support’ by essentially shutting down shipping in the Red Sea. This follows a underwhelming attempt to directly hit S Israel and the sea ports there. US destroyers are close to running out of their air defense missiles and will need resupply soon. However, to what I’ve heard, they cannot be resupplied at sea. The USS Carney for instance has fired over 30 of its missiles at Houthi drones and cruise missiles. It is nearly out. But US response continues to be slow. Only dropping the hammer in a massive way will deter the houthis
Ongoing rumors of renewed cease fire talks persist. However, Hamas has to come up with some big concessions and I don’t think they are likely to do so. But their time is running out as stronghold after stronghold falls in Gaza. The hostages Hamas has left will likely damage their image even more that the ones recently released - who’s tales of capture and detainment sucked most of the air out of the pro-hamas drumbeat of the global community.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) called for labor unions, professional associations, progressive forces, and supporters to join a global strike in solidarity with Palestinians every Monday until the end of the Israel-Gaza war.
OBSERVATION - While pro-hamas protests persist, they have come down from their high water marks of a couple weeks ago. Many seem to be smaller and more directed at disruptions of traffic and disturbing holiday activities. Once the holidays are past, having events to disrupt become far fewer, until political rallies hit. This seems to be an effort to expand the protests into a more mainstream realm. However, much of the pro-hamas actions have only ticked most people off, and not gained any substantial support of the people at large but rather as generated resentment.
***
Pro-hamas elements in San Francisco are rallying to the courthouse as the initial defendants arrested in the Bay Bridge closure last month face first hearings. Attempting to swamp the courtroom to disrupt proceedings they were kept outside. Their demands are for all charges to be dropped.
However, with a new DA this is not very likely. Post closure assessment reports that in the midst of the blockage, three organ transplant couriers were trapped, delaying or canceling three surgeries. Not confident at this stage that pro-hamas elements will continue vocal but peaceful protests - but I think the probability is high that they may stage another shutdown in support of the defendants.
Economy-
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is concerned about a potential 2024 recession and that higher-than-expected inflation will persist next year. (FO)
“There are a variety of problems – declining flows of credit, inverted yield curves, aspects of consumer behavior, rising evidence of credit strains – that raise the possibility that the landing won’t be soft if there is one,” Summers said.
OBSERVATION - Continued mixed reviews concerning the state of the economy in 2024. The biden regime is already on the public opinion ropes for its handling of the economy inspire of their recent PR blitz to try to sell the country that things are good. A clear recession in 2024 will almost be the final nail in biden’s presidency - if the deep state allows an election that is.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
SecDef announces Operation Prosperity Guardian, which brings together multiple countries including the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, “to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden”
OBSERVATION - If you are not going to use the force, all the ships in the world are not going to deter anything.
***
Carrier Strike Group 1 (CSG-1) led by the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is moving west and has arrived in Singapore after operations in the Philippine Sea; this would allow her to arrive in theater near Yemen or Iran if needed within roughly 5-7 Days.
The USS Reagan is still at port in Japan.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Driver who crashed into Biden’s motorcade charged with driving under the influence of alcohol.
***
Americans may have found something they like less than a hypothetical Kamala Harris presidency — four more years of Joe Biden.
A new poll out Monday shows the veep’s favorability rating inching above the commander-in-chief’s for the first time, as reports indicate growing alarm inside the White House about Biden’s prospects in 2024.
The Monmouth University survey showed the 81-year-old Biden receiving just a 34% approval rating — the lowest in the poll’s tracking of his administration and down 20 percentage points from its peak in April 2021 — and a 61% disapproval rating.
Harris fares little better, but her 35% approval rating and 57% disapproval rating are positively glowing marks compared to her boss.
https://nypost.com/2023/12/18/news/harris-tops-biden-favorability-as-dems-panic-over-polls/
Related - Monmouth poll has Biden job rating dropping to all time low since taking office.
34% approve
61% disapprove
OBSERVATION - How much longer before we see the rats jumping ship in mass?
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. border officials on Sunday closed two rail bridges that move freight between Texas and Mexico after detecting a surge in the smuggling of migrants through Mexico by train.
The move by U.S. Customs and Border Protection was the latest in a series of similar closures along the border in order to redeploy enforcement resources elsewhere in response to large numbers of migrants.
The international railway crossing bridges in Eagle Pass and El Paso were closed “in order to redirect personnel to assist the U.S. Border Patrol with taking migrants into custody,” CBP said in a statement.
“After observing a recent resurgence of smuggling organizations moving migrants through Mexico via freight trains, CBP is taking additional actions to surge personnel and address this concerning development, including in partnership with Mexican authorities,” the statement said.
BP agents in Eagle Pass tell me this is by far the worst they have ever seen it there with no end in sight.
CBP has imposed similar temporary closures in recent weeks, shutting the Lukeville port of entry in Arizona, a pedestrian entrance in San Diego, and a vehicle crossing in Eagle Pass.
After the Lukeville closure, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs on Friday ordered National Guard troops to the border with Mexico, saying the U.S. federal government’s decision had put public safety and commerce at risk.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/12/us-closes-two-rail-bridges-to-mexico-amid-migrant-surge/
***
Texas governor Greg Abbott signed a new law Monday which gives law enforcement officers in the state the power to arrest anyone suspected of entering the country illegally.
OBSERVATION - Interesting work around of fed laws. I expect the DoJ will file a lawsuit to ban it shortly.
China –
China has escalated tensions in the South China Sea by deploying a sonic weapon sparking worries that President Xi Jinping aims to create a crisis during the Christmas period. (AP)
Philippines moving to establish a second base in the Seychelles Islands - a zone disputed by China.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said on Tuesday it had launched a Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Monday as a drill to confirm the war readiness of its nuclear deterrence force in the face of mounting hostility by the United States.
OBSERVATION - This is another launch of its newest and solid fueled rocket, confirming yesterday’s speculation.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 of 2 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Russia was targeting areas in western Ukraine.
Russia shot down Ukraine drones in the Briansk region as well in the neighborhood of Moscow and Kaluga region
Russia continues to press the attacks around Adviivka.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. Expect russia to keep pressing Adviivka area.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Operations reaching final stages in N Gaza.
- Operations in S Gaza/Khan Younis intensified overnight as IDF forces confront Hamas and affiliated strongholds.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Continued rumors over another ceasefire and hostage release. Hamas reportedly reluctant to release any hostages, holding up progress.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army forces have reached Palestine Square in the Shejaiya neighborhood of Gaza City. Troops destroyed the Hamas monument there, which celebrated an ATGM attack on an Israeli APC that left 6 soldiers dead, including Oron Shaul.
Observers are noting that IDF operations in N Gaza are close to wrapping up. The central Gaza city not under control by IDF has grown very small. Many of the actions consist of through screening of the area for more tunnel and their destruction. Hamas and affiliated factions are putting ever decreasing resistance to the IDF.
Al-Qassam Brigades claimed the recent rocket attack against Tel Aviv. This is the first attack in days and was basically inconsequential.
Operations in S Gaza continue at a high pace. IDF continues to hammer targets in Khan Younis as they work to isolate remaining Hamas and affiliated strongholds.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
***
IDF spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus told reporters Monday that Hezbollah has fired “more than 1,000 different types of ammunition, rockets, missiles, drones, mortars and others toward Israel” since October 8, the day after the Palestinian Hamas movement led an unprecedented surprise attack against Israel from Gaza.
Conricus warned that “Hezbollah, who as everybody knows is a proxy of Iran, is dangerously dragging Lebanon into an unnecessary war that could have potential devastating consequences for the state of Lebanon and for the people of Lebanon.
“And it is a war that I think neither Lebanon nor Israel deserves to be fighting.”
***
In a joint press conference today with US Secretary of Defense Austin, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant stated that if Hezbollah does not move north of the Litani River (as UN resolution 1701 calls for) through diplomatic efforts, Israel “will not hesitate to act [militarily]”.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
British Ministry of Defence - The security situation in the Red Sea is deteriorating.
CVN-69 - the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower - is now less than 20 nautical miles from the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. The carrier has traveled nearly 2,000 nautical miles in less than one week. It is in position to strike Houthi targets in Yemen.
Carrier Strike Group 1 (CSG-1) led by the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is moving west and has arrived in Singapore after operations in the Philippine Sea; this would allow her to arrive in theater near Yemen or Iran if needed within roughly 5-7 Days.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is relatively routine.
Time to fish or cut bait for the US as it amasses an armada to protect Red Sea shipping. Until the US and allies make a substantial strike on Houthi positions in Yemen, they will continue to take pot shots at ships. So far biden has shown no desire to really shut the Houthi down.
Actions by other “Islamic Resistance” forces have tapered off over the past week. They still are conducting attacks, but with increasing intervals between them.
Israel is continuing to lay the groundwork to justify military actions against Hezbollah - most likely following operations in Gaza. This places any major escalation in combat several month out, provided Hezbollah doesn’t conduct a preemptive attack first..
Iran –
Massive explosion overnight at Iran’s aviation and space force headquarters in Tehran.
These headquarters supply missiles and UAVs to regime proxies in the region.
OBSERVATION - Mossad or internal resistance forces stike probably.
Syria -
Jordan launched air strikes inside Syrian territory along its borders against hideouts of drug smugglers.
Misc of Note –
A volcano has erupted on the Reykjanes peninsula of south-west Iceland after weeks of intense earthquake activity. The eruption can be seen from Reykjavik, which is about 42km north-east of Grindavik.
The length of the crack in the volcano is over 4km, with the lava flowing at a rate of around 100 to 200 cubic metres per second, the Met Office said, adding that this was many times more than recent eruptions on the Reykjanes peninsula.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
OBSERVATIONS - Ah, this warms the cackles of this grumpy old geologist’s heart. Spectacular eruption. Scientists are assessing if this eruption is going to impact air travel across the region. Initial observations are no, but being monitored.