CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
More pro-hamas protests around the country. Maintaining predominately peaceful posture.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Ahmad Musa Jibril, a Michigan Islamist preacher, has called on American Muslims to wage Jihad against the “infidel West” and declared Muslims in the US should start “normalizing” Jihad.
According to The New York Post, Jibril has a history of inciting those in his community. He called for young people to travel to Syria to fight alongside the barbarians of ISIS, and he faxed an ugly fan letter to CNN after a terror bombing in Riyadh in 1995.
A perpetrator in the London Bridge 2017 terror attack was also reportedly a listener of Jibril.
Alberto Fernandez, vice president of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), told Fox News Digital, “You have pretty radicalizing, extreme content happening. This is stuff they uploaded on social media. It’s there for everybody to see.”
“If that’s the stuff that they’re saying openly, what are they saying that is not open?” Fernandez said.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/12/radical-michigan-imam-calls-muslims-wage-jihad-us/
OBSERVATION - His rhetoric is very likely to trigger lone wolf attacks by islamists in the US who have been increasingly radicalized in the course of the ongoing Gaza war. This would be fed by the passive behavior by many govt levels to the pro-hamas protests / demonstrations that display weakness. Remember, radical islam feeds off weakness and sees it as the opportunity to attack.
Economy-
I encountered this summary yesterday, and it struck home because I’ve seen the same pattern, but just didn’t take notes like the following did
The Fed Since November 1st:
1. Nov. 1: Getting inflation to 2% “has a long way to go”
2. Nov. 21: “No indication of rate cuts at last meeting”
3. Dec. 1: Talks about rate cuts are “premature”
4. Dec. 1: “We are prepared to tighten policy further” if needed
5. Dec. 13: Rates remain the same and to drop in 2024
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 15, 2023
OBSERVATION - It appears the Fed is swerving all over the place over the course of the past month. This is leading some to speculate that the Fed has come to the reality that the economy is not as happy as they say and with the 2024 elections looming, are tacking policy to assist biden.
***
The Biden administration on Friday finalized a plan to dramatically curb the number of offshore oil and gas lease sales over the next five years as it continues to aggressively push green energy development.
The Department of the Interior’s (DOI) five-year offshore oil and gas leasing program schedules just three Gulf of Mexico lease sales through 2029, marking the fewest number of sales ever included in such a plan, which the agency is mandated to issue periodically. According to the DOI, holding the sales will enable future offshore wind leases under an Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provision that tethers the two.
OBSERVATION - In parallel to Globalists agenda. US oil producers have done a yeoman’s job pumping oil, but the continued constriction of leases and open areas for exploration are making further expansion nearly impossible - and that is the goal of the regime.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has extended the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group’s deployment in the Eastern Mediterranean, a defense official told USNI News, dashing family members’ hopes of bringing the strike group back to Norfolk for the holidays.
This is now the third time the secretary of defense has extended the strike group, currently in the Eastern Mediterranean as part of the U.S.’s ongoing response to the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7. USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) and the other ships of the carrier strike group initially deployed in May to replace the George H.W. Bush CSG in the Mediterranean as part of the U.S. response to the Russo-Ukraine War. The Associated Press first reported the extension.
The last extension was in November, USNI News previously reported.
The carrier strike group has been deployed 227 days, or approximately seven and a half months.
OBSERVATION - this is the Ford’s first deployment. The use of extensions lately have some indicating that this is due to declining readiness levels affecting the ability of other CSGs to deploy in a timely manner.
***
The USS Eisenhower CSG has been observed moving to the Red Sea area where it is likely being positioned to reinforce naval units attempting to protect shipping.
***
U.S. enters 2024 with its smallest military in over 80 years as active-duty troop numbers sink to less than 1.3 million and all branches except Space Force MISS recruiting goals. Under the $886 billion annual defense bill passed by Congress this week total active-duty troop numbers will fall to 1,284,500 next year.
That is the lowest total since before the U.S. entered the Second World War in 1941 and officials said there should be a ‘national call to service’.
OBSERVATION - Call to service - potential activation of the draft. I am not a supporter of a draft, as it would further lower the quality of the troops. OTOH, the pentagon and the WH has done everything they can to alienate the patriotic sector of our young adults who would normally have signed up. Hence a deliberate weakening of the military coming from both sides.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Doctors worldwide are in meltdown after China confirmed that the mystery pneumonia taking over the country has stopped responding to ALL antibiotics.
The Daily Star has been reporting how the strange unidentified virus has been causing chaos in China for weeks, with the world on high alert over fears a new pandemic could be on the way – and no official confirmation as to what it actually is. Although it so far only seems to impact mainly children.
The panic saw officials in neighbouring countries such as India, who are wary of another virus spreading through their population following the outbreak of the coronavirus in 2019, readying themselves for action. It had already reached Europe – with Denmark and Holland confirming an influx of cases – with the World Health Organisation on high alert and said to be monitoring the situation.
OBSERVATION - Popping back up again. This particular article contains a lot of unvalidated speculation and some substantial fear mongering. However, it is in my judgement, still a very serious situation that cannot be ignored. So much of the wuhan progressed in its early stages in a similar manner.
POLITICAL FRONT –
We’ve been pretty well inundated with the story of the gay senate staffer doing it in one of the senate chambers. He’s now out of work. What I’ve not seen really addressed is who the other individual in the video was? Hmmmmm.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Campaign theme - Bring Decency Back . . . . . .
Babylon Bee couldn’t write such a theme.
Illegal Immigration –
Eagle Pass TX is the focus of one of the more recent surges across the border.
North/South Korea –
South Korea is again considering developing and manufacturing its own nuclear weapons. The cause is the growing instability of North Korea and South Korean fears that the United States won’t fulfill its pledge to attack North Korea with nuclear weapons if the North attacks South Korea with nukes.
South Korea currently sees North Korea as less stable and more prone to reckless actions against the south. This change in attitudes came after November 2023 when South Korea canceled a 2018 agreement with North Korea to reduce the surveillance and spying they carried out against each other. South Korea took a closer look at North Korean military activities and concluded that North Korea might be tempted to emulate the recent Hamas attack on Israel and back it with the threat of using nuclear weapons.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htchem/articles/20231217.aspx
RELATED - Reuters - The United States has warned North Korea that any nuclear attack against the nation or its allies “is unacceptable and will result in the end of the (Kim Jong) Un regime,” a joint US-South Korean statement said on Saturday.
“The U.S. side reiterated that any nuclear attack by the DPRK against the ROK will be met with a swift, overwhelming, and decisive response,” the statement said.
The second U.S.-Republic of Korea Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) convened in Washington on Friday for talks on nuclear deterrence as part of a commitment by the two countries to share more insight into planning in the event of conflict with North Korea. Pyongyang has developed and tested a range of ballistic missiles that can reach targets in South Korea, Japan and the U.S. mainland.
Kim Tae-hyo, South Korea’s deputy national security adviser said on Friday that North Korea may test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile this month, which was considered a nuclear threat regardless of its range because it can carry a nuclear warhead.
OBSERVATION - Strategic positioning of public opinion to justify any action by SK or the US. This past year under biden’s foreign policy relations with NK have seriously tanked.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
RUMINT – New Ukrainian general is marshaling supplies and forces for a renewed offensive once the ground freezes.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 of 20 Shahed drones and a Kh-59 missile overnight. Kyiv, Odesa and Kherson regions were reportedly targeted.
Russian ministry of defense reported 33 drones were shot down over Lipetsk, Rostov and Volgograd regions. Ukraine drones did manage to hit a key Russian airfield, damaging MIG-34s.
Avdiivka -
Reports that Russia attempted a large, armor supported attack on the northern flank of the Avdiivka salient. About 15 Tanks/APCs were used to drop troops off and on their return about half were destroyed/disabled. Russian troops reportedly were under heavy artillery fire - approximately 100-150 pinned down. .
Kherson Axis -
The 104th Air Assault Division was supposed to save the Russian campaign on the left bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. Instead, the newly-formed division “suffered exceptionally heavy losses and failed to achieve its objectives during its combat debut,” the U.K. Defense Ministry reported.
The 104th, the new fifth division in what usually is a four-division Russian airborne corps, was supposed to make good the corps’ heavy losses in the first 22 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine.
Instead, the approximately 2,000-person division itself became a casualty of an escalating war of attrition. The division “was reportedly poorly supported by air power and artillery, while many of the troops were highly likely inexperienced,” the ministry in London explained.
NOTE- Reflects the disaster that is second to Russian losses at Avdiivka. Russia may have a larger body pool to draw upon, but without training, proper equipment, proper tactics and support, they die just the same.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations.
Russia seems to attempting to launch moderately large attacks in breaks in the weather. Their tactics, however, have not changed and they keep getting hit with heavy losses. Very notably is the lack of the massive artillery support that allowed them to eventually capture Bahkmut.
Russian sources continue to bemoan the new air superiority - drones - that Ukraine has over key regions. As with the recent attack noted above in the Adviivka area, drones provided early warning, provided initial bomb attacks and provided quick, accurate artillery response. Russia is trying to counter with their own drones, but Ukraine has the distinct advantage.
Also being resurrected is the deadly ATGM fire by Ukraine, hitting Russian armor as it exits wood lines into open fields.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Continued search and clear operations.
- Military action against Houthis being contemplated and assets moved into position.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu - We received requests for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of forces from Gaza, but we will not do that
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army says it carried out strikes against some 200 Hamas sites in the Gaza Strip over the past day. It says the Paratoopers Brigade raided several apartments used by Hamas in Gaza City’s Shejaiya, and found firearms, explosive devices, and other military equipment
Israeli army says it found concealed weapons within the baby ward of Kamal al-Adwan Hospital (northern Gaza), specifically in the incubators meant for the care of premature infants
***
Army spokesperson says first attempt to pump seawater into Hamas terror tunnels is a success. Osama Hamdan, a member of the terror group, tried to downplay the effort saying Hamas’ tunnels could withstand flooding.
U.N. human rights commission claims Israel’s flooding of tunnels with saltwater could have severe adverse human rights impacts, some long term. Goods indispensable to civilian survival could also be at risk, as well as widespread, long-term & severe environmental damage. Civilians must be protected.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Twice yesterday, the Conoco Military Base east of Deir ez-Zur came under rockets attack from Iranian-backed militias.
***
Top Biden admin officials are actively weighing options to strike back at Houthis in Yemen after the Iran-backed group launched new attacks on naval and commercial ships in the Red Sea on Saturday, according to two U.S. officials.
Sec Def is going to announce “Operation Prosperity Guardian” next week, an international effort to protect Red Sea shipping, US military official tells.
Yesterday, USS Carney downed 14 Houthi drones while HMS Diamond downed 1, all part of same wave
On Saturday, a Houthi spokesman said the group has engaged in Oman-mediated talks with unnamed “international parties” over its operations in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea – which could indicate the Houthis may be willing to deescalate. The Houthis stressed in the Oman-mediated talks that their position was not subject to negotiation until Israel stops its “aggression” against Gaza and allows humanitarian aid to enter, said Mohamed Abdel-Salam, the Houthi spokesman.
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, was spotted yesterday via satellite moving southwest off the coast of Oman. Along with CVN-69 are the USS Philippine Sea (Ticonderoga Class) and an Arleigh Burke Class Destroyer. On its present course, its carrier assets have all of Yemen in range.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
French Foreign Minister warns that attacks in the Red Sea “cannot remain without a response”
French shipping company CMA CGM announces they too will halt transit of all container shipments through Red Sea. This brings the total number of major shippers pausing transit of the Red Sea to three.
France’s foreign minister has called for an “immediate and durable” truce, saying “too many civilians are being killed”.
The UK and Germany have also jointly called for ceasefire, “but only if it is sustainable” in the long-term
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is relatively routine.
The US is positioning the Ike to support/conduct strikes on Houthi positions and facilities. The Houthi are not blind and are scrambling to avoid the heat trying to come up with some sort of ‘agreement’ that it could use to stall any military strikes while it continues to nibble around the edges of any agreement to continue attacking shipping. The Houthi have mildly surprised me by their aggressiveness and success.
I’ve stated repeatedly that the islamic radicals will only respect strength and pay lip service to any toothless agreements - seeing that as weakness. Given how critical the shipping to/from the Suez via the Red Sea is to global markets, the only thing the Houthi would respond to is a massive, disproportionate military strike. Unconfirmed reports that defense officials are pushing for such a strike and that the WH is reluctant to act.
Argentina -
President Javier Milei announces a total crackdown on Argentine civil society, calling on armed forces to break strikes, arrest protestors, “protect” children from families that bring them to demos, and form a new national registry of all agitating organizations.
OBSERVATION - Newly installed, this action is certain to stir up serious domestic resistance by the left.
Thanks very much for your posts, Godzilla.
Globalism / Great Reset –
U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman signed a letter with 31 other members of Congress on Friday demanding answers from the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) about a newly proposed rule that would allow buying and selling of undefined “rights” to certain private and public lands, including to foreign nations.
The SEC proposal would let investors buy into the stock market companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) for the purpose of protecting nature — including public lands — and making money.
The proposal, if passed, would clear the way for the NYSE to offer this new kind of investment known as “natural asset companies,” or NACs.
Once in control of the land, NACs will be prohibited from engaging in “unsustainable activities” like energy production, logging and grazing; however, farming would still be allowed.
Hageman said the purpose of this rule is to end all economic activity on the lands.
OBSERVATION - This is just another of a growing means to withdraw lands from the public use - resources and all. Parallel methods started with the Nature Conservancy in the 80’s buying rights to property to prohibit development in perpetuity. Today its mega billionaires like Gates and BlackWater gobbling up terrain. Since these ‘rights’ are not defined by law, there is a wide latitude for abuse.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Biden administration is removing the Reconciliation Monument in Arlington. The monument was built 109 years ago to honor post-Civil War reconciliation and national unity.
OBSERVATION - This is not about the Confederate states or army, but about reconciliation and the ongoing attempt by the left to paint the right as white supremcists, laying out the philosophical groundwork for CW2.
***
NBC News reporter Ken Dilanian cited FBI statistics showing that crime rates across the U.S. are in decline, saying that the 77% of Americans who believe that crime is getting worse are being “conditioned” by social media and news outlets to see it that way.
In the piece, titled “Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They’re wrong,” Dilanian wrote, “Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data that contradicts a widespread national perception that law-breaking and violence are on the rise.”
OBSERVATION - Keyed into the massive and deliberate neutering of our police and justice system, MSM now trying to gaslight us into thinking there is no increase in crime!! Another example of cherrypicking the data, data that has of recent years been manipulated to rule out various crimes. This is just setting the stage for later govt actions that are designed to cause the sheeple to flock to it.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
The Secure Community Network, which coordinates security for Jewish institutions nationwide, said early Sunday that it had tracked 199 threats over the past 24 hours, with nearly 100 in California and 62 in Arizona. Synagogues in at least 17 states plus Washington, D.C., were affected, according to local media reports.
None of the threats were deemed credible after local investigations. But some of them caused significant disruption: A Boulder, Colorado, synagogue evacuated its Shabbat morning services on Saturday, for example, while a congregation in western Massachusetts canceled its Sunday religious school.
Economy-
A surge of avian flu has hit many producers forcing the culling of flocks and is expected to drive the prices af eggs and poultry higher. Secondary effects will raise prices of foods containing eggs and chicken.
***
Kalifornia has gone from a record surplus to a record deficit in one year. That means all state agencies will have to curtain all non-critical expense for over six months, until the current fiscal year ends next Summer, on June 30, 2024.
OBSERVATION - Continues feckless spending by the state, combined with the massive outflow of tax paying citizens and the reverberations of the economic slowdown over the past year have come home. This is only the tip of the iceberg folks, as there is also a massive debt the state has accrued over the decades it keeps papering over. The 68 Billion deficit is easily compared to the 90+ billion over charge for the high speed train to no where.
***
In the latest economic projections released Friday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated the U.S. successfully evaded a recession in 2023. The government agency predicted the U.S. will also likely avoid a recession in 2024, although it does project continued sluggish economic growth for the next year. The CBO forecasts a 1.5% expansion in real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024, a decrease from this year’s 2.5% growth, attributing the drop mainly to a deceleration in consumer spending and commercial construction. In the labor market, unemployment rates are predicted to rise slightly from the current 3.9% to 4.4% by the end of 2024, but will still maintain healthy levels with slight workforce growth largely propelled by immigrant labor.
OBSERVATION - Color me skeptical. Many of these numbers and conclusions are being debated by other economists and businesses like Bloomberg. These numbers are likely cooked to try to put the best face on biden’s disastrous economic policies going into the election year.
***
(FO) President of Rosenberg Research & Associates David Rosenberg said that many economists and analysts are ignoring the obvious economic risks next year, and he’s now predicting a 90% chance of a U.S. recession. Rosenberg’s team expects “real [economic] growth of no better than 1% and quite possibly zero… That is rare but not unprecedented: We saw this in 1949, 1954, 1958, 2008, and 2009 – all recessions,” he wrote in a recent research note to clients.
OBSERVATION - Contrast to the CBO happy talk above. The verdict is still out on a 2024 recession.
***
White House Economic Adviser Lael Brainard said a strong job market, higher productivity, and easing supply chain pressures mean that President Biden’s policies are beating inflation.
OBSERVATION - This has been largely driven by reductions in fuel costs- a factor that can change within literally hours now if an event (war, etc) threatens supplies, etc. The budgets of americans continue to be maxed out, savings dropping, credit card debt rising and housing costs continue to be elevated beyond the reach of most. Brainard also overlooks the massive fed debt and juggling act the Treasury dept is doing to keep things from flying apart. This is nothing more than an attempted victory lap going into the 2024 election year.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Three US destroyers entered Mediterranean Sea via Strait of Gibraltar recently.
USS Laboon (DDG-58): Dec. 11
USS Delbert D. Black (DDG-119): Dec. 14
USS The Sullivans (DDG-68): Dec. 17
US officials would not comment on if they are heading to Red Sea.
Biden / Harris Watch –
A black motorist stuck a Secret Service SUV moments after Biden walked out of his campaign headquarters in Delaware . The driver of the car is reportedly cooperating with Secret Service Agents.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegals in NYC are complaining about their free food and free shelter. Typical.
China –
Taiwan reported exceptionally low numbers of air and naval incursion numbers this weekend despite no bad weather. National elections are a month away and China may be holding back pending an aggressive push at election time to intimidate voters away from the current pro-independence party that is leading in the polls.
North/South Korea –
Following the test of a shorter range missile on Sunday night, North Korea fired a ballistic missile toward East Sea, South Korean military says. The missile flew about 570 km on a high transjectory flight path before landing in East Sea after a flight of approximately 70 minutes.
The South reported the missile flew up rather than across, a method Pyongyang has previously said it employs in some weapons tests to avoid flying over neighboring countries.
Japan’s defense ministry said it was an ICBM-class missile with a potential range covering all of the United States.
“The ICBM-class ballistic missile launched this time, if calculated based on the trajectory, depending on weight of warhead, could have a flying range of over 15,000 kilometres (9,320 miles),” said Shingo Miyake, parliamentary vice-minister of defense. “In which case the whole of the US territory would be within the range.”
North Korea has previously test-fired four ICBMS this year. The last time was in July, when it launched its solid-fuel Hwasong-18.
The Hwasong-18, which was first test-fired in April, is North Korea’s first ICBM to use solid fuel, which makes it easier to transport and faster to launch than liquid-fuelled versions. Military analysts are evaluating the launch to see if it was a Hwasong-18 or other rocket.
Security advisers of South Korea, Japan, U.S. condemn North Korea ICBM launch as ‘flagrant’ breach of UNSC resolutions.
OBSERVATION - As noted, a high transjectory flight allows testing of the whole flight pattern without having to overshoot Japan or have monitoring stations down range. This high flight profile may be used in the future to test a nuclear warhead, exploding well outside the earth’s atmosphere, avoiding some serious retaliatory consequences. However, depending on the altitude and yield, Japan and other nations in the region, could suffer the effects from a nuclear EMP. That could also trigger SK, US and others to launch strikes against NK, triggering a war on the peninsula.
***
Satellite imagery suggests that North Korea may be in the process of building an airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. Should work be underway to develop a North Korean AEW&C capability, the result could well provide a very useful addition to Pyongyang’s armory, especially the potential to offer advance warning of aircraft and missile strikes launched from the south.
The images show an Ilyushin Il-76 Candid airlifter parked at Pyongyang International Airport. Work can be seen being undertaken on the top of its fuselage, just aft of the wing, where a radome is mounted on other AEW&C versions of the type.
The KPAF is well known for its aging fleet of mainly Soviet-era aircraft, supplemented by a few Western types acquired by mainly nefarious means. Its most modern combat equipment comprises MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters and it still flies Shenyang F-5s, Chinese-made versions of the MiG-17 Fresco fighter, first flown in 1950, before the outbreak of the Korean War.
OBSERVATION - This is one realm where NK is receiving technical help from Russia as part of its munitions package for the Ukraine war. Given the ancientness of its airfare, NK may be tooling this aircraft for more of an intel collection platform as well as an enhancement of its early warning systems.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Economic Impact –
Russia’s central bank has today raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16%, hiking borrowing costs for the fifth meeting in a row under stubborn inflation pressure from widespread labour shortages, high lending and the weak rouble.
The central bank has now raised rates by 850 basis points since July, including an unscheduled emergency hike in August as the rouble tumbled past 100 to the dollar and the Kremlin called for tighter monetary policy.
The bank said pro-inflationary risks over the medium-term horizon remained substantial and warned that stabilising inflation near its 4% target would require high rates for a long time.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 Shahed drones overnight - slow night.
Russian forces continued to press the northeastern margin of the Adviivka salient.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations.
Russia to continue its localized attacks, but still lacks sufficient artillery support to overcome Ukraine defenses and allow its soldiers to move past its front line positions in any meaningful manner - all the while taking heavy losses in men and material.
Moldova/Transnistria -
On December 17, the Moldovan army began training near the Ukrainian border in Odesa and its Transnistrian region, which in March of last year the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe officially declared a zone of Russian occupation, - the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Moldova.
OBSERVATION - this is a big step, previously the country listed essentially no army but a police force.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbia’s governing populists claimed a sweeping victory in Sunday’s snap parliamentary elections.
According to a near-complete preliminary tally published Monday by the state election commission, President Aleksandar Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won 47% of the vote.
The largest opposition group, Serbia Against Violence (SPN), picked up 23%.
Vucic’s name was not on the ballot, as it was not a presidential election, but the vote was widely seen as a referendum on his leadership after a turbulent year for the country.
Tensions with neighboring Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008, have escalated. And two back-to-back mass shootings claimed the lives of 18 people in Serbia.
OBSERVATION - Moscow was quick to congratulate Vucic. This victory may cause Serbia to become even more aggressive towards Kosovo in the coming year, especially if NATO gets further bogged down by Ukraine, a growing migrant problem and economic woes.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF uncovers a massive underground tunnel network large enough to drive a vehicle thru. Located within 400 meters of the northern border between Gaza and Israel.
- Increasing rumors of another possible cease fire and hostage release for prisoners.
- Shipping thru the Red Sea coming to a standstill due to Houthi attacks.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Continued international calls for a ceasefire.
***
The Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) on Monday announced that Iran and Hezbollah were behind the cyber attack last month against Ziv Medical Center in Safed.
According to the INCD, the goal was not only to harm the specific hospital’s operations, but to damage Israel’s resilience as a whole mid-war when many hospitals have been overloaded with handling larger numbers than usual of wounded soldiers.
The hack was partially successful and partially unsuccessful.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Locally intense fighting and aerial bombardments.
***
The biggest Hamas terrorist tunnel to date has been discovered. This massive tunnel system branches out and spans well over four kilometers (2.5 miles). Its entrance is located only 400 meters (1,310 feet) from the Erez Crossing—used by Gazans on a daily basis to enter Israel for work and medical treatment in Israeli hospitals.
This tunnel system was a project led by Mohammad Sinwar, the brother of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and the commander of Hamas’ Khan Yunis Battalion. It is large enough to drive a vehicle in.
Further evidence of the use of a coring machine, similar to one discovered by the IDF when they discovered a Hezbollah tunnel near the Lebanese border.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli launched airstrikes in the Damascus area. No details as of yet as to the targets. Recent targets have been the airport, but common targets are Iranian / Hezbollah storage facilities in the area.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Oil giant BP is suspending all shipping through the Red Sea due to the “deteriorating security situation”. It comes after major shipping firms Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd & CMA CGM Group all decided to pause shipping through there amid Houthi rocket/missile/drone attacks on vessels
U.S. military official: “We are aware of reports and can confirm that on Dec. 18, at approximately 9 am(Sanaa time) the M/V SWAN ATLANTIC was attacked by multiple projectiles and that the USS Carney responded to the distress call in Southern Red Sea.” The M/V Swan Atlantic attack is the most recent in the Red Sea.
Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority: 55 ships have been redirected through the Cape of Good Hope since November
Evergreen Shipping Company announces that it will temporarily stop accepting the transportation of Israeli goods
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egypt is heavily reinforcing its border protection with Gaza to keep Hamas and refugees out.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is relatively routine.
The Houthi have successfully executed their ‘support’ by essentially shutting down shipping in the Red Sea. This follows a underwhelming attempt to directly hit S Israel and the sea ports there. US destroyers are close to running out of their air defense missiles and will need resupply soon. However, to what I’ve heard, they cannot be resupplied at sea. The USS Carney for instance has fired over 30 of its missiles at Houthi drones and cruise missiles. It is nearly out. But US response continues to be slow. Only dropping the hammer in a massive way will deter the houthis
Ongoing rumors of renewed cease fire talks persist. However, Hamas has to come up with some big concessions and I don’t think they are likely to do so. But their time is running out as stronghold after stronghold falls in Gaza. The hostages Hamas has left will likely damage their image even more that the ones recently released - who’s tales of capture and detainment sucked most of the air out of the pro-hamas drumbeat of the global community.