Reality time - the countdown clock to the 2024 elections is now at 11 months. At current trends 2024 is building to be potentially worse than 2020. Buckle up folks.
Globalism / Great Reset –
COP28, featured a Tuesday discussion on sustainable yachting.
The discussion centered on finding “a variety of technical solutions developed to make the yachting experience more responsible and sustainable,” according to its official COP28 website. The event, titled “Responsible Yachting. Today & Tomorrow,” was moderated by Nico Rosberg, a yacht-owning former race car driver, and organized by Sunreef Yacht, a company that builds custom yachts and luxury vessels.
The discussion also included “a conversation about electric, hybrid and hydrogen propulsion, battery technology, plant-based composites, bottom paints, modern photovoltaics, sustainable interior finishing, water management, energy management (and) air conditioning,” according to the event’s COP28 website
OBSERVATION - Something worthy of the Babylon Bee.
***
A new draft of the controversial United Nations Cybercrime Treaty has only heightened concerns that the Treaty will criminalise expression and dissent, create extensive surveillance powers and facilitate cross-border repression.
The Cybercrime Treaty that is currently being negotiated by the United Nations has the potential to substantively reshape international criminal law and bolster cross-border police surveillance powers to access and share users’ data, implicating the human rights of billions of people worldwide.
Without a clearly defined scope and sufficient safeguards, the Treaty could endanger human rights – both online and offline – and repressive governments could abuse its provisions to criminalise online free speech. It could also threaten digital rights by legitimising intrusive investigations and unhindered law enforcement access to personal information.
OBSERVATION - Anyone catching the pattern here - increased censorship and surveillance. At a global level, this would permit the powers that be to sculpt public opinion globally and maintain the narrative - while jailing those speaking out against it.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Hundreds of pro-Palestine supporters marched to the Kalifornia Capitol on Tuesday, carrying flags and chanting messages of support for Gaza, but those demonstrators also had a different goal in mind.
They vocalized their anger and disappointment in Gov. Gavin Newsom’s decision to move a scheduled public event online.
“He has chosen to keep it behind closed doors with select people only and not enjoy it with the public,” said Makeez Sawez, of Youth for Palestine and an organizer of Tuesday’s march. “Our goal was originally to come and have conversations and have the governor see us.”
OBSERVATION - Their goal was to remove the ‘enjoyment’ of the lighting. This, like other Christmas related events this season, are ‘soft’ targets for these protests designed to silence and intimidate the population.
***
In a Washington Post article, the husband of State Dept official Victoria Nuland, a man named Robert Kagan, wrote an op-ed effectively calling for President Trump to essentially be assassinated.
“[…] Are we going to do anything about it? To shift metaphors, if we thought there was a 50 percent chance of an asteroid crashing into North America a year from now, would we be content to hope that it wouldn’t? Or would we be taking every conceivable measure to try to stop it, including many things that might not work but that, given the magnitude of the crisis, must be tried anyway?
Will those who balked at resisting Trump when the risk was merely political oblivion suddenly discover their courage when the cost might be the ruin of oneself and one’s family?”
OBSERVATION - More increasing rhetoric preparing the public for an assassination attempt on Trump, and trying to build support for such an act. Kagan is a deep, deep state insider who’s opinion carries a lot of what the powers that be are thinking and planning.
***
FBI Director Chris Wray admitted to Sen. Josh Hawley that he has not fired anyone at the FBI’s Richmond office over the memo urging the FBI to investigate “radical traditional Catholics.” “You haven’t fired anybody,” Hawley, a Missouri Republican, said to Wray in a Senate hearing Tuesday. “In fact, what the House found …, you admonished them,” Hawley said. Mockingly, he added, “Oh I feel much better. They’ve been sent to bed without food.” “Do you have a problem with systemic bigotry against Catholics at the FBI?” Hawley also asked. Wray flatly responded, “No.”
OBSERVATION - The face of the deep state continues to unapologetically wage war on the citizens of the US.
***
In Texas, there is a growing secessionist movement, being organized under the Texas Nationalist Movement, which since 2005 has advocated for the Lone Star State to break away from the United States — a “TEXIT,” as they call it.
OBSERVATION - The secessionist effort has been going for some time now, first gaining my attention back in the 0bama years. Current efforts are a state wide referendum declaring such - a toothless but loud declaration of grievances with the deep state lead fed govt. It is thought by some that should biden totally lose it and resort to totalitarian measures Texas cold lead an exodus of red states in the midwest and Redoubt area in a secessionist styled revolt.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
FBI Director Christopher Wray testified Tuesday that the terror threat facing the United States has reached unprecedented levels since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., asked Wray to describe the current “threat matrix” facing the United States at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing.
“What I would say that is unique about the environment that we’re in right now in my career is that while there may have been times over the years where individual threats could have been higher here or there than where they may be right now, I’ve never seen a time where all the threats or so many of the threats are all elevated, all at exactly the same time,” the FBI director replied.
OBSERVATION - The FBI has been making this warning since the Gaza war began on Oct 7th.
On a very dark sided view, the regime could use ‘terrorism’ as a false flag to marshal in crackdown on the conservative, MAGA right - since so much effort has been made to demonize that portion of the population. I really hope I’m just getting too tinfoil here, but given the rhetoric of public officials, high profile progressives and the media, I can no longer rule out such an action in my preparations.
Economy-
Drug shortages in the U.S. have hit a record high and lawmakers warn they could mean life or death for millions of patients. A House committee is investigating what Congress can do to the supply chain to make sure doctors don’t have to keep rationing essential drugs like cancer treatments.
OBSERVATION - Disruptions from the wuhan plandemic and the aftermath of having to rely on China for many of these drugs in an increasing hostile situation.
***
Today’s preliminary jobs report – the JOLTS or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey – came in well below expectations this morning. It was considered a big miss, with job openings “falling dramatically.”
Job openings tumbled in October to their lowest in 2½ years, a sign the historically tight labor market could be loosening.
Employment openings totaled a seasonally adjusted 8.73 million for the month, a decline of 617,000, or 6.6%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The number was well below the 9.4 million estimate from Dow Jones and the lowest since March 2021.
OBSERVATION - They are spreading hopium
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Speaker Mike Johnson told fellow Republicans on Tuesday that sweeping changes to U.S. border policy would be their “hill to die on” in negotiations over President Joe Biden’s nearly $106 billion package for the wars in Ukraine and Israel and other security needs.
OBSERVATION - Republicans are carving out a substantial position on illegals, one that could well pull a sizable number of urban blacks and other minorities to the party in November as dissension over illegals usurping the entitlement class for resources increases.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden wants to effectively ban Christians from adopting children in the foster care system. Biden wants to essentially ban Christians from adopting foster care children based on their religious beliefs and opposition to radical LGBTQ ideology. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has proposed a new rule that would prohibit families who do not support LGBTQ ideology from caring for foster children.
OBSERVATION - On going culture war that will only help to increase the red-blue chasm.
China –
China’s military said Wednesday it sent fighter jets to monitor and warn a U.S. Navy patrol aircraft that flew over the sensitive Taiwan Strait, a mission that took place weeks before Taiwan holds elections.
The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet said the P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance plane, which is also used for anti-submarine missions, flew over the strait in international airspace.
Taiwan is gearing up for presidential and parliamentary elections on Jan. 13, which China has cast as a choice between war and peace.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian signed an agreement to counter unilateral sanctions
Putin to Saudi Arabia to meet with officials there regarding oil production and prices.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-30 degree range with mostly cloudy conditions and more snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 41 of 48 Shahed drones overnight.
Ukraine launched strikes against Russian targets in Berdyansk, Mariupol and central Luhansk.
Finding out overnight that Ukraine targeted several key targets in the vicinity of the Kersch Bridge - a key one being a very important radar facility that provides early warning to a sizable area of southern Crimea.
Russia launched a series of ground assaults in the northeastern front opposite of Sumy. Most activity there in a while.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations.
The last few days, Ukraine has conducted some critical attacks in Crimea. The most significant is taking out the Russian early warning radar system. Being rare in the Russian inventory, it will create a gap in the air defense early warning and tracking system. The goal may well be to open a window of attack towards the Kersch Bridge. Shutting the bridge down again as winter sets in and Russian capabilities already strained would significantly hurt forces. It could set up a renewed offensive in the south towards Crimea.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck 250 terror targets in the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours, including two rocket launchers used in Tuesday’s barrage on the Tel Aviv area.
- IDF preparing to flood Hamas terror tunnels with sea water.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that the resident visa of the U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator for the Palestinian Territories, Lynn Hastings has been revoked due to her refusal to condemn Hamas and assist the Israeli Government; Hastings who lives in eastern Jerusalem has two weeks to leave Israel before she will be deported.
***
National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby says eight U.S. nationals still being held hostage by Hamas in Gaza Strip
***
Osama Hamdan warns that future violence against Israel will be bigger than October 7. Osama Hamdan, a Beirut-based senior official of Hamas, made the statement during an interview last week with Lebanese media outlet Bel Moubashar Online, When the interviewer asked if the “war of liberation” would occur in the foreseeable future, Hamdan said “I do not think it is far off.”
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called out women’s groups and human rights groups on Tuesday over their silence about Hamas’ brutal, sadistic sexual violence against Israeli women.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
On Tuesday, Israel said its troops had reached “the heart of Khan Younis” - the largest southern city - on the “most intense” day of fighting in its ground operation.
According to Arab reports, IDF armored bulldozers were operating in eastern Khan Yunis. The bulldozers are directed to tear up roads to uncover IEDs and level buildings to expose Hamas terror tunnel shafts so as to provide clearance for ground troops. IDF forces are widening the salient into S Gaza towards Khan Yunis.
In N Gaza, IDF continues to systematically isolate and eliminate Hamas and affiliated terror groups, locate tunnels and munitions stockpiles. Fighting is intense at the Jabalia refugee camp and Shejaiya in northern Gaza
Hamas fired more rockets at Israel, but the numbers and intensity have once again been severely degraded.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah/Hamas continued to fire ATGMs, mortars and rockets into N Israel and the IDF responded with artillery and airstrikes.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to operate to capture Hamas and affiliated terrorists.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Israeli Arrow anti-ballistic missile successfully took out a Houthi missile aimed at the southern regions of Israel.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel resumes the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. Action in S Gaza at this stage appears to be focused on quickly isolating Hamas leadership in Khan Younis. Israel has taken out a plethora of Hamas’ leadership at multiple levels and this is very evident in the north where an organized resistance has failed to develop and the IDF is able to isolate and destroy groups.
Revelatons from the released hostages and the clearly exposed use of hospitals and the like for military bases has for now cooled supportive propaganda by global media. As noted in CW2 above, pro-Hamas protests are targeting soft targets like Christmas celebration events - but that is starting to cause loss of support.
Houthi’s will continue to be a problem child towards Red Sea shipping and will continue to be so as long as the war continues and the US fails to launch any punitive strikes.
Iran –
See new agreement with Russia under Russia above.
Venezuela - Increasing potential for war
Maduro has announce tonight that the Esequiba Region of Western Guyana is now “Official” a territory of Venezuela, with a state map being released with that change.
Maduro also said he will grant licenses for oil exploitation in the area disputed with Guyana.
Venezuelan military seen beginning construction of a new base camp near the Guyana border.
The president of Guyana, Irfaan Ali, said on national television that the measures announced by Maduro tonight are an “imminent threat.” Says UN Secretary General and other leaders have been informed
President of Guyana warned of “defense cooperation with the US” if Maduro takes action in Essequibo.
OBSERVATION - There have been rumors elsewhere of potential US involvement with ground troops. In his recent address, Maduro designated political appointees to run the Esequiba state, with offices in Venezuela until the territory is seized.
Central / South America General-
Brazil has moved additional troops to the border of Guyana in anticipation of military action by Venezuela.
Dec 7th, a day that will live in infamy.
Today, our country has been set up for possible equivalent attacks across several sectors, and the WEF driven agendas of the biden regime are only making matters worse. Many commentators suggest that 2024 could be the most dangerous period in our country’s history. This is not national paranoia, but rational examination of all the goings on in the country - economic, politically, militarily, socially, etc. It is scary to think that we may look at 2023 as good times, but realities going back to 0bama show otherwise.
Globalism / Great Reset –
COP28 continues.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
It seems that the pro-hamas elements / protests have plateaued off or even declined slightly over the past week. They still have some traction to pull supporters for action events, but recent revelations of Hamas additional atrocities and lies may have taken some steam out of them.
Universities remain a hot bed for anti-Israeli sentiment however, the disgusting testimony of three Ivy League college presidents - with their sudden backpedaling the next day - indicates that the campus leaders may be realizing that they are on increasingly thin ice. This may put a chill in some support to pro-hamas campus groups and their rallies and protests.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
DHS is warning of increased terror threats. However, to me they are still inferring that the primary threat is still from white Christian conservatives.
Economy-
Crude oil prices drop below $70/barrel for the first time since July 2023. Since the September 28th high, oil prices are now down ~27%. Meanwhile, the national average gas price is down for 10-straight weeks to $3.25/gallon.
OBSERVATION - Early this year OPEC+ set production goals and prices expecting China’s economy to finally get rebooted. This hasn’t happened and its economy has continued to falter. Drops in oil consumption are a symptom of an incipient recession - no industrial demand. The drop in prices, even after another significant production reduction accentuates the economic realities of a likely recession.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Fourth presidential ‘debate’ was held last night. Lots of personal attacks, but little on issues passing today. None of the candidates on the stage even come close to Trump who didn’t attend..
OBSERVATION - Some pundits think these debates are essentially to see who will fill the VP portion of the ticket. However, they haven’t bothered to discuss this with Trump. I cannot see him having a #2 who is openly willing to stab him in the back again.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden was confronted on his interactions with hunter’s business ‘partners’. He called it a lie and then walked out of the press conference. CNN later showed the receipts documenting biden was the one lying.
Illegal Immigration –
Per CBP sources, there were more than 12,000 migrant encounters at the southern border yesterday, the highest single day total ever recorded. This includes 10,200+ Border Patrol apprehensions of illegal immigrants, amongst the highest daily totals for BP ever recorded.
OBSERVATON - The border situation is completely coming unraveled even more - if that was ever possible to begin with. Even more illegals are getting into position south of the border to cross in another massive wave.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
putin continues his middle east meetings in an apparent effort to shore up support for his regime in the region.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-30 degree range with mostly cloudy conditions and more snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Moderately busy day with Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 18 Shahed drones overnight. Most of the artillery and infantry fighting continued sporadically along the eastern and southern fronts.
Significant statement from the biden regime are ominous. John Kirby is prepping the press corps for a NATO vs Russia war with America ground troops:
“If you think the cost of supporting Ukraine is high now, just imagine how much higher it’s gonna be, not just in national treasure but in American blood!”
biden and Sec Def Austin have threatened to put US boots on the ground in Ukraine if congress fails to pass additional aid for Ukraine. This is a serious raising of the stakes between the House Republicans and biden.
OBSERVATION - How willing is biden to commit US forces to directly engage Russians in Ukraine? One thing is for certain, such an act prior to the 2024 elections will certainly increase the level of chaos into the campaigns as well as further degrade our overall military readiness.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. No real significant battles today, just a continuation of minor skirmishes.
What is needed to be noticed is the continued absence of Russian high tech missiles. They continue to rely on Shahed drones. Neither the Black Sea missile cruisers, or Strategic bombers have sortied out in months. This suggests that Russia is building their stockpile of these weapons while trying to force Ukraine to waste air defense resources on the cheaper drones.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UN Sec Gen invokes Art 99 of the UN charter.
- Unconfirmed reports that Israeli forces have surrounded the house of Yahiya Sinwar, the Hamas leader responsible for the October 7th attack.
- Israel has started pumping seawater into Hamas tunnels.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres on Wednesday invoked Article 99 of the UN charter for the first time, citing a “severe risk of collapse of the humanitarian system in Gaza,” as the war rages on between Israel and militant group Hamas. The invocation of Article 99 allows the UN secretary-general to bring the attention of the security council to “any matter which in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security,” per the UN. Gutteres called on the Security Council to “press to avert a humanitarian catastrophe,” and reiterated his “urgent appeal for a humanitarian cease-fire to allow the means of survival” to be restored and the safe and timely delivery of aid to Gaza.
Israel’s foreign minister accused United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres of supporting Palestinian terror group Hamas, called for his resignation, and said his tenure as head of the world body was “a danger to world peace,” in a furious reaction on Wednesday to Guterres’ letter urging an immediate ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas and his invocation of a rare clause in the UN charter to urge Security Council intervention.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Observers note that air strikes throughout Gaza are essentially ‘non-stop’.
Hamas launched rocket attacks towards Sderot and the Gaza Strip settlements.
Israel has made further gains in the south of Gaza city, and also advanced into the Jabalia camp.
Though Israel reported that it has Khan Yunis ‘surrounded’, battle tracking by OSINT folks do not see closure, although they admit their data may be relatively old.
The IDF has advanced into the centre of Khan Yunis. Their advance has followed 2 main routes, one from the northeast and one from the east.
The Israel Defense Forces’ 98th Division, which includes the Commando Brigade and other special forces, is spearheading the fight at Khan Yunis. IDF Spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari announced on Wednesday evening, adding that Hamas was surprised by the raid. From the outset, the troops eliminated a number of terrorists and with aerial support, located approximately 30 tunnel shafts and destroyed them,”
The 98th is one of the most elite units of the IDF and historically the go to force when they want something done and done quickly.
The folks at War mapper provide the latest ground action map
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GAs4G3SXwAAoAo5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
(War mapper)
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah/Hamas continued to fire ATGMs, mortars and rockets into N Israel and the IDF responding with artillery and airstrikes.
***
Defense Minister Gallant to the heads of regional/local councils and mayors in northern Israel: “The evacuees will not return until the UNSC Resolution 1701 will not be implemented and Hezbollah will leave southern Lebanon beyond the Litani river, low chances that this will be achieved through diplomatic means and if not, military force will be used”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to operate to capture Hamas and affiliated terrorists.
Israeli security forces storm the Jalazoun camp, north of Ramallah.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
G7: Regional parties must stop destabilizing activities, and we call on Iran to refrain from providing support to Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
Global leaders continue to call on Israel to ‘limit civilian casualities”, which is essentially a euphemism for a unilateral cease fire. Literally, no other military force has gone as far as Israel has to warn civilians out of harms way.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel resumes the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. The lightening strike on Khan Yunis is moving fast and Israel may have the terror center of S Gaza sealed off within days. It is probable that the most senior of Hamas battle leadership relocated here after Israel announced its broad invasion plans for the north. In Hamas mind, their forces in the north would provide sufficient delay that command and control could be reestablished in the south with minimal Israeli action. They misjudged Israel.
For those who pay attention, the quick, focused strike to encircle Khan Yunis is also one that preserves civilian lives. Israel avoids the bulk of the refugees from the north and has already warned the civilian population of Khan Yunis to flee. I think this tactic has successfully taken a lot of the air out of the hamas victim propaganda.
Israel may be telegraphing a more aggressive action against Hezbollah once Hamas has been dealt with. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 is a resolution that was intended to resolve the 2006 Lebanon War. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that his militia would honor the call for a ceasefire. He also said that once the Israeli offensive stops, Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel would stop.
Three key other components of the resolution that the UN has failed to enforce include -
- Disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon (implying Hezbollah)
- No armed forces other than UNIFIL and Lebanese (implying Hezbollah and Israeli forces) will be south of the Litani River
- No foreign forces in Lebanon without the consent of its government
Since Hezbollah continued to maintain forces S of the Litani River and not disarm, Israel sees them in violation of the agreement and subject to Israeli action.
NOTE- Any significant ground action in S Lebanon is unlikely to occur for several months at least - until Israel is done mopping up the remnants of Hamas and affiliated terror groups. The only thing that could change is if Hezbollah launches a peremptory attack which from a global perspective would be bad PR.
An Israeli attack against Hezbollah will most certainly bring Iran into direct combat with Israel and involve the rest of the world thru likely oil blockades at the Straits of Hormuz, cyber attack and terror attacks. That they have been very reluctant to get deeper involved in the Gaza war suggests that they are’t ready for such confrontation yet and are likely working to replan any action and response to this new, aggressive Israeli resolve. Its evident that Israel has learned from its mistakes in the 2006 War, while Hezbollah/Iran haven’t
Venezuela - Increasing potential for war
The US has vowed its “unwavering support” for Guyana after Nicolás Maduro threatened to snatch more than half of the country and take its oil.
Guyana‘s tiny army is on full alert for an invasion from Venezuela, and Brazil also moved troops to the area amid fears a conflict could spill over the border.
A possible incursion by Venezuela into Guyana by land could see Venezuelan forces passing through Brazil, which shares a border with both countries, to reach the southern half of the disputed territory.
OBSERVATION - If Madero launches an attack, the most likely center of mass will be the northern half of Essequibo, where it could immediately place claims on the off shore oil deposits recently discovered, then pivot south to seize the remaining portions with the minerals therein. This would avoid direct combat with Brazilian forces.