Globalism / Great Reset –
The Federal Communications Commission has adopted final rules to prevent digital discrimination of access to broadband services based on income level, race, ethnicity, color, religion, or national origin.
Under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the FCC is required to adopt rules to ensure that all Americans have equal access to reliable, high-speed broadband services without discrimination based on the characteristics listed in the statute.
Under the new rules, the Commission can investigate possible instances of discrimination of broadband access, work with companies to solve problems, facilitate mediation, and, when necessary, penalize companies for violating the rules.
The rule would give the FCC power to micromanage the industry. Marketing materials that feature too many white people could be ruled discriminatory. Companies could be forced to scrap credit checks that cause more minorities to be rejected for smartphone leasing plans.
Providers could even be punished for charging the same prices to all customers since their rates might have a disparate financial impact on minorities. The FCC could likewise prohibit low-cost wireless plans that include data caps because these are selected more often by people with lower incomes. If you think these are unlikely, you haven’t been watching the left.
OBSERVATION - Though this is not the end of the free internet, it is another brick in censorship desired by the global elites and the deep state here in the US. Will this result in lawsuits that get this expansion stopped because it exceeds its regulatory authority? Perhaps, that remains to be seen. What is evident is that this becomes another tool of the CRT crowd that can be used to force censorship and skew policy for alleged impacts on minorities.
Economy –
Janet Yellen is dealing with a situation where she has $8 trillion in US debt maturing in the next 12 months that needs to roll over and be refinanced at the new higher interest rates. Add in a deficit is about $2 trillion to $3 trillion and the US needs to find buyers for all those fresh new US Treasury bonds.
All of the traditional big buyers of US govt debt are on the sidelines, including China.
OBSERVATION - In fact, China has been leading a global sell off of US debt bought over the course of the past decade. No buyers means interest offered will have to increase until it reaches a level that buyers want - at the same time further increasing national debt.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Within hours of the very peaceful, pro-Israeli rally in DC, Pro-Palestinian and Hamas supporters are began rioting at the Headquarters for the Democratic National Committee in Washington, D.C. trapping dozens inside. The demonstrators attempted to force their way into the main entrance of the building and blocked adjacent streets. Capital Police and Metro Police resorted to tear gas and physically pulling rioters away from the building.
Reports that at least 6 police officers were injured, no count of arrests that I’ve seen yet.
OBSERVATION - The radicalized left is furious that the Democrats have not gone totally against Israel and are venting that anger towards them in an effort to intimidate them into withdrawing support for Israel’s military operation to eliminate Hamas. This appears to be a phase in the internal war in the democrat party between the moderates/pro-Israel establishment and the marxist DSA wing.
***
Palestinian Arab American Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib (D-Mi) is a member of a secret Facebook group that glorified the Hamas terrorist organization following the massacre of over 1,200 Israelis on October 7, Fox News reported.
According to the report, Tlaib is a member of the Palestinian American Congress group on Facebook, a group that is hidden from non-members. The group was founded by Maher Abdel-qader, an activist with ties to Tlaib and other left-wing politicians in the US who has a history of antisemitic social media posts, including Holocaust denial.
One post on the group’s page on October 12, five days after the massacre, read: “We don’t want to throw you in the sea…we want you to ride it back from where you came.” The post included a photograph of an elderly woman kidnapped by Hamas with one of her captors.
Another post from October 19 extolled the “achievements” of Hamas in killing IDF soldiers and wounding of Israeli civilians.
OBSERVATION - To say she is in conflict with the oath she took as a congresswoman is an understatement. Placing this here because it demonstrates a new front being developed in the growing confusion that will be CW2. For years now, the influence of radical islam in the US has been papered over by leftist apologists. Heck, even the WH press liar when asked about anti-Israel attacks went down the road of decrying ‘islamophobia’ - totally side stepping the question. Islamic population in portions of the US have reached a level where various aspects of shriah law are being forced on Americans. Further, they carry over the willingness to rely on violence to get their way - strength over compromise/appeasement. While currently affiliated with the marxist left, that can quickly change as religion/ideology between the two are not really compatible .
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Lone wolf attacks on Jewish related targets is the primary concern. Assassination attempts on politicians - particularly those on the right is an increasing concern as well.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Canadian research published last month continues to expose the deliberately hidden contamination in the mRNA jabs created by Pfizer and Moderna.
All the vaccines in this study contained billions to hundreds of billions of DNA fragments, and they each exceeded the DNA adulteration standard of 10 nano-grams per dose set by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the World Health Organization (WHO). In fact, these batches exceeded FDA standards by 188 to 509 times that limit.
Govt agencies aided and abetted these companies. The FDA, Health Canada and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) have all acknowledged that plasmid DNA adulteration does occur, but all these agencies refuse to enforce labeling requirements for DNA fragments, effectively forfeiting informed consent and deceiving public health officials, physicians and patients.
OBSERVATION - I think I may have touched on this particular study earlier last month, but it is worth repeating. It builds the case of fraud by the companies and knowing participation to cover it up by the govt. More and more, conspiracy theories that this was a deliberate effort to reduce the population are now appearing to be factually based. From the study, these contaminations are believed to enhance the rapid development of cancers. Additionally, this DNA contamination could cross the placenta and concentrate in ovarian tissue, increasing the likelihood of birth defects. Once again - reproductive effects being brought forward in addition to infertility and miscarriage hazards.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Senate passed the CR to prevent govt shutdown, punting the can down range for 2 months.
Biden / Harris Watch –
(FO) The Biden-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in San Francisco resulted in.
- Military-to-military emergency communication lines will be reopened.
- The Sunnylands Statement, a joint statement that promises a partnership on climate change, includes a return to the Paris Agreement.
- Xi demanded the U.S. stop arming Taiwan and stop encouraging Taiwan Independence.
- The two sides said they would co-operate to fight drug trafficking, and China agreed to crack down on chemical companies in order to stem the tide of illegal fentanyl into the US which has contributed to a rise in overdose deaths.
OBSERVATION - Observers noted that overall, biden appeared physically weak and mentally checked out. The ‘results’ above are very minor and inconsequential. For instance, China can agree to the Paris Agreement on climate change since it allowed it to continue to pollute on a massive scale, while the US has to impose economy damaging reductions.
China –
See Biden/Harris above
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia’s rocket forces loaded an intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with the nuclear-capable “Avangard” hypersonic glide vehicle into a launch silo in southern Russia, according to a defense ministry TV channel broadcast on Thursday.
President Vladimir Putin announced the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle in 2018, saying it was a response to U.S. development of a new generation of weapons and a U.S. missile defense system that it could penetrate.
As it approaches its target, the Avangard glide vehicle detaches from the rocket and is able to maneuver sharply outside the trajectory of the rocket at hypersonic speeds of up to 27 times the speed of sound (about 21,000 miles per hour or 34,000 kilometers per hour).
OBSERVATION - Technically, all ballistic missiles are ‘hypersonic’. What is the issue here are warheads being able to maneuver at hypersonic speeds. Such maneuverability can make the development of anti-ballistic missile systems very difficult to create. One solution may well be to go back to some of the Cold War systems that were designed to launch a nuke at the incoming warhead, detonating and causing the warheads to detonate as well or be torn apart by the nuclear blast. Other solutions would be mid flight targeting - hitting the warhead clusters before separation. Development of effective countermeasures is many years down the road.
Logistics –
See “Europe / NATO General” below on potential closure of the Finnish sea to Russian oil tankers.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with rain throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
An almost routine, Ukrainian air defense shot down 16 of 18 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight.
If the Ukrainian military estimate is correct, in the last 24 hours Russia has lost nearly double the personnel reported lost on a daily basis, along with a whole snoot full of armor, tanks and artillery. They don’t report where these losses were concentrated.
Avdiivka -
Russia continues its costly push to seize Avdiivka
Kherson Axis -
The flurry of activity on this front is creating a great deal of discomfort among Russian milbloggers and commentators. A true breakthrough here would place Russia on the horns of a dilemma.
Crimean front —
Loud explosions reported in Sevastopol, earlier Russian Ministry of Defense claims intercepting 3 drones over Black Sea.
Outlook —-
Both sides in essentially an operational pause. Russia desiring to get an offensive underway in the eastern front area as well as resume operations to capture Adviivka.
More developing on the bridgehead in Kherson Oblast as more Ukraine equipment and men move onto the left bank of the Dipner River and towards the Crimean peninsula.
Europe / NATO General –
Not officially confirmed yet, but it’s reported Denmark will be tasked with inspecting and potentially blocking tankers carrying Russian oil through the Danish Straits under new EU plans. Russia sends around a third of its seaborne oil exports, through the Danish straits. Denmark would target tankers carrying Russian oil that did not have western insurance.
OBSERVATION - Definite step of escalation over the enforcement of international sanctions on Russia and oil in particular. Russia has been relatively successful in getting its oil sold, and taking 1/3 of its export capacity down will be a serious hit.
***
Finland is reportedly in the process of closing its border with Russia. This follows the actions of other NATO border nations. Finland has also become the target of Russian directed / supported passage of migrants seeking to get into Europe.
***
Pro-Hamas demonstrations broke out again in London, with protestors vandalizing war memorials. London police quickly secured the Cenotaph but essentially let rioters have their way with other memorials. The parliament voted to call for a cease fire in the Gaza war.
Pakistan –
Pakistan’s recent missile technology advancement, shown by the Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) test launch with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities, signifies a pivotal development in South Asia’s strategic balance and defense capabilities.
The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) reports that Pakistan last month conducted its second test launch of the Ababeel MRBM designed to carry MIRVs, moving a step closer to achieving the enhanced capability to penetrate India’s nascent missile defenses.
IISS says that the recent test at Sakhi Sarwar range in Punjab province followed the 2005 India-Pakistan agreement on pre-notification for ballistic-missile tests, which included seven Notice to Air Missions issued by Pakistan. It mentions the test was conducted to revalidate various design and technical parameters and evaluate the performance of different subsystems.
IISS notes that the Ababeel is one of two nuclear-capable MRBMs that Pakistan is developing, with the main difference being its MIRV capability, which increases deterrence by increasing the chances of penetrating India’s emergent ballistic-missile defenses.
The institute says that India is also preparing its own MIRV capability, linked to its Agni VI intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that is designed primarily to penetrate Chinese missile defenses and not for use against Pakistan.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/pakistan-mirv-test-heats-up-south-asias-arms-race/
OBSERVATION - Pakistan is a very politically unstable country that is also dealing with a Taliban - based insurgency. Currently, the country is expelling 1.7 million resident Afghans as a result. In recent years, the country has drifted more and more towards the more militant islamic circle. With on going tensions with India, if Pakistan destabilizes further, chances of a regional nuclear war increase.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF begins operations to clear the subterranean bunker network at Shifa Hospital
- IDF taking over control of operations at Shifa Hospital, bringing supples and equipment in.
- IDF has dropped leaflets over Khan Yunis warning residents to flee the town.
GENERAL ——————————-
Reuters: Iran will not fight Israel on the side of Hamas. Iranian leader Ali Khamenei made this clear to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh during their meeting in Tehran.
OBSERVATION - Pretty much stick a fork in it, Iran has tossed Hamas under the bus. I noted in a previous post that some believe that Hamas prematurely triggered the attacks and that they were supposed to be done in conjunction with Hezbollah. This is why Israeli quick response units initially went north - expecting Hezbollah invasion, thus delaying the response to Hamas. However, Hamas leadership wanted to get the glory and started on their own.
Iran reportedly stated that they would only get involved if Israel / US or some other third party nation attacks it.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Several stockpiles of weapons and munitions have been discovered inside of the MRI Center of the Al-Shifa Medical Complex in Gaza City. IDF states this is the tip of the iceberg as the operation at the hospital shifts to finding and exploiting the underground bunkers beneath the hospital and compound. The tunnel complex is understood to have been laced with all kinds of traps prior to Israel seizing the compound.
IDF is bringing in heavy construction equipment - excavators and bull dozers - to start digging access to the tunnels beneath the hospital complex. Possible reasoning is that the hospital entrances have been damaged or mined by Hamas, making them unsafe to enter so effort is to bypass and gain access to upper levels via excavation.
***
In leaflets distributed by the Air Force, the IDF calls on the residents of the eastern neighborhoods of Khan Yunis:
“For your safety, you must evacuate your place of residence immediately and evacuate to one of the known shelters
OBSERVATION - This suggests that Israel is beginning to move on its next phase of the surface war. Khan Yunis is one of Hamas’ secondary zones of control. This suggests an increased aerial bombardment similar to N Gaza to prepare for an eventual ground campaign.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued attacks and counter attacks along the border. Two main area of fighting are being better defined. First (and largest) is in the northern most tip of Israel around the town of Kiryat Shmona. The other center on the western most border area near the Med Sea.
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli raids to arrest Hamas and other terror elements continue. Local pockets of fierce fighting develop during such raids.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
On November 15th, while transiting the international waters of the Red Sea, the crew of the USS Thomas Hudner engaged a drone that originated from Yemen and was heading in the direction of the ship. The Hudner’s crew engaged and shot down the drone to ensure the safety of U.S. personnel. There were no U.S. casualties or any damage to the ship.
***
Reports USAF CAPs yesterday targeted and destroyed a truck in Anbar preparing to target the Ain Alasad Airbase with rockets. A number of rockets were also reportedly intercepted. Coalition forces continue to be based here and targeted by IRGC backed militia factions.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on the Al-Shifa and Qods hospitals now that IDF has entered and is in the process of securing them. The topside battle for Shifa is pretty much done, the underreported action is in the underground realm and it may be days before news is released on that battle. The Hamas command bunker below the hospital is reportedly as deep as 200 feet and consists of as many as 18 levels with deep tunnels reaching out to other areas in N Gaza.
Keep this in mind as the pro-Hamas propaganda machine, aided and abetted by major news outlets, tries to capitalize on the current lack of photos, etc of the bunkers beneath the hospital. In conjunction with this media full court press, expect more from Qatar on hostage releases. Remember, Qatar is a sanctuary for Hamas leadership, who have over 11 Billion dollars in assets - skimmed off international aid to Gaza.
Iran’s essential abandonment of Hamas confirms what I noted from nearly the very beginning of the conflict - Iran and its attack dog Hezbollah are reluctant to commit to supporting Hamas in a meaningful way. Even the “Islamic Resistance” is basically a token effort, hoping to get a lucky shot in, but doing enough to let their followers believe they are great supporters of Hamas.
The shift in attention to the southern half of Gaza is not totally unexpected but seems kind of early. However, if IDF takes a couple weeks to soften up the targets like they did up north, then the search and clearing of N Gaza can continue to its conclusion. I cannot see Israel starting a massive ground effort in the south before enough strings are tied up in the north. Nor can i see Israel settling for cleansing Hamas in the north without dealing with the stragglers and secondly command facilities in the south that could provide the nucleus for a restored Hamas. Keep in mind, hamas soldiers dropped their uniforms for civilian wear - a violation (gasp) of the rules of war and likely scampers south, mixing in with the other refugees, leaving the hard cord fighters to try to delay and disrupt Israeli operations.
The big issue will be what to do with the hundreds of thousands of N Gazans that fled south - Egypt and Jordan have refused to take them in - under threat of war.
Iran –
See Israel above - tossing Hamas under the bus.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Turkey –
Turkish president tells Israel “YOUR END is near.”
“Hey Israel, you have a nuclear bomb and you are threatening with this. We know this. YOUR END IS NEAR…whether you have nuclear weapons or not. You’re on your way out.”
OBSERVATION - Erodgen has shifted the Turkish politics further and further to the radical islam level in his move to be the next Caliphate. The Gaza war and Turkey’s response pretty much kills any effort that was being made to reconcile differences between the two countries.
Central / South America General-
Tens of thousands of Brazilians took to the streets today to protest against Lula government and in repudiation of its non-support for Israel.
OBSERVATION - The Gaza war is bringing out some stark contrasts. Leftist Brazil is one of these moments, where pro-Israeli elements are taking a stand.
Misc of Note –
Tomorrow morning the launch window opens (8 AM eastern) for Musk’s Starship rocket - the largest and most powerful one ever made - for the second test flight. Should be spectacular and the way his technical team has overcome previous engineering challenges with the Falcon program, there is a pretty good reason to expect some degree of success. Will be watching closely.
IMHO - This is how the US space program should have proceeded but instead got mired down in big buck mega US contractors and lack of vision by leadership. The current NASA effort to build a rocket/capsule system to reach the moon again is multiple years behind schedule and over twice the original budget. Musk is showing just how terrible that model is.
Israel knew they had to move quickly - and that type of insight is what's been keeping them safe all these years. Hamas is evil, but luckily also stupid...and vain.
Very abbreviated post today as I have other pressing matters to take care of today. Tomorrows post likely to be more extensive.
Economy –
Prices at the gas pump have been bucking the forecasted trend this past month by dropping significantly. Led in part to decreased demand as global economies slow due to the approaching recession. Also earlier, high demand periods now have oil companies sitting on excess they need to move. Now futures are starting to factor in the reintroduction of Iranian crude to the market - increasing the supply side of the equation.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
More pro-Hamas protests, some blocking highways and bridges. Protestors overnight approached the WH, but not in the numbers of previous and without the same level of violence.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Lone wolf attacks on Jewish related targets is the primary concern. Assassination attempts on politicians - particularly those on the right is an increasing concern as well.
***
Concern at a recent pro-football game when drones made two appearances over the stadium - causing pauses to the game.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Studies on data from the VAERS database indicate that post-wuhan jab era, cancers have increased something of the magnitude of 1000+%. This correlates to the medical community alerting to what is being called “turbo” cancers and links to the jab as well.
Biden / Harris Watch –
A year-long probe into the management of classified documents by President Joe Biden and his staff will likely not result in charges, according to two people close to the investigation. Special Counsel Robert Hur, along with his team, have been investigating the discovery of classified documents from Biden’s Vice Presidential tenure at his former office at the Penn Biden Center in Washington, DC, and at his home in Delaware. The Wall Street Journal initially noted that a criminal case was not anticipated, an analysis echoed by CNN.
OBSERVATION - Two tiered justice system.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
RUMINT- Rumors persist that putin died and that his appearances are by a body double. A rumor that really hasn’t gotten much traction given the very limited evidence for and the more substantial evidence against.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with rain throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Same old, same old. Exceptions being the Ukraine effort in Kherson Oblast. Reports confirming that Ukraine has joined all the crossing sites on the left bank of the Dniper River and are pushing to the southwest.
Russians continuing to face staggering losses in the Avdiivka effort. Causalities (killed/wounded) are reaching 1000 / day and are the primary source for all casualties. Similar spike with armor / tanks losses.
Avdiivka -
Russia continues its costly push to seize Avdiivka
Outlook —-
Both sides in essentially an operational pause. Uncertain just how much longer Russia can sustain the losses at Adviivka. They have given it an almost Bakhmut level of priority and are losing a lot of troops and equipment. As weather conditions continue to cause the effectiveness of offensive actions to decline (muddy fields degrade maneuver necessary to defeat defensive positions) Russia has to expose more infantry to Ukrainian artillery fire.
Still very slow - Ukraine efforts in Kherson Oblast continue to grow and could accelerate if they are able to construct a temporary bridge to speed the crossing of vehicles, equipment and ammo.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The body of a second hostage in as many days, has been found in a building adjacent to the Shifa hospital compound.
- Excavation at the Shifa Hospital complex has revealed upper level of the underground bunker complex - and the storage of a considerable amount of munitions and weapons.
- IDF also finding that some tunnels were recently sealed off to give the impression that they ended and went no further.
- IDF focusing further now on S Gaza concentrations of Hamas facilities.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on the Al-Shifa and Qods hospitals now that IDF has entered and is in the process of securing them. The topside battle for Shifa is pretty much done, the underreported action is in the underground realm and it may be days before news is released on that battle. The Hamas command bunker below the hospital is reportedly as deep as 200 feet and consists of as many as 18 levels with deep tunnels reaching out to other areas in N Gaza.
IMHO - The directors and staff at these hospitals should be sweating bullets since it is increasing apparent that Hamas has used these facilities to conduct war against Israel. What did they know and how much. Cooperation with the military use is clear. What is also becoming clear is that they had a hand in the retention of hostages in these ‘hospitals’ as well.
Continued methodical search and clearing operations in N Gaza with intensity of combat declining as Hamas forces are eliminated. Expect increased aerial bombing of terror facilities in S Gaza to increase.
With Iran saying that they will not enter the war, the likely hood that Hezbollah will enter it has declined significantly. They will provide limited support to the Hamas and related terror cells in S Lebanon to continue to harass IDF, but there are no precursors to suggest anything bigger.
Very abbreviated post today as I have other pressing matters to take care of today. Tomorrows post likely to be more extensive.
Economy –
Prices at the gas pump have been bucking the forecasted trend this past month by dropping significantly. Led in part to decreased demand as global economies slow due to the approaching recession. Also earlier, high demand periods now have oil companies sitting on excess they need to move. Now futures are starting to factor in the reintroduction of Iranian crude to the market - increasing the supply side of the equation.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
More pro-Hamas protests, some blocking highways and bridges. Protestors overnight approached the WH, but not in the numbers of previous and without the same level of violence.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Lone wolf attacks on Jewish related targets is the primary concern. Assassination attempts on politicians - particularly those on the right is an increasing concern as well.
***
Concern at a recent pro-football game when drones made two appearances over the stadium - causing pauses to the game.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Studies on data from the VAERS database indicate that post-wuhan jab era, cancers have increased something of the magnitude of 1000+%. This correlates to the medical community alerting to what is being called “turbo” cancers and links to the jab as well.
Biden / Harris Watch –
A year-long probe into the management of classified documents by President Joe Biden and his staff will likely not result in charges, according to two people close to the investigation. Special Counsel Robert Hur, along with his team, have been investigating the discovery of classified documents from Biden’s Vice Presidential tenure at his former office at the Penn Biden Center in Washington, DC, and at his home in Delaware. The Wall Street Journal initially noted that a criminal case was not anticipated, an analysis echoed by CNN.
OBSERVATION - Two tiered justice system.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
RUMINT- Rumors persist that putin died and that his appearances are by a body double. A rumor that really hasn’t gotten much traction given the very limited evidence for and the more substantial evidence against.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with rain throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Same old, same old. Exceptions being the Ukraine effort in Kherson Oblast. Reports confirming that Ukraine has joined all the crossing sites on the left bank of the Dniper River and are pushing to the southwest.
Russians continuing to face staggering losses in the Avdiivka effort. Causalities (killed/wounded) are reaching 1000 / day and are the primary source for all casualties. Similar spike with armor / tanks losses.
Avdiivka -
Russia continues its costly push to seize Avdiivka
Outlook —-
Both sides in essentially an operational pause. Uncertain just how much longer Russia can sustain the losses at Adviivka. They have given it an almost Bakhmut level of priority and are losing a lot of troops and equipment. As weather conditions continue to cause the effectiveness of offensive actions to decline (muddy fields degrade maneuver necessary to defeat defensive positions) Russia has to expose more infantry to Ukrainian artillery fire.
Still very slow - Ukraine efforts in Kherson Oblast continue to grow and could accelerate if they are able to construct a temporary bridge to speed the crossing of vehicles, equipment and ammo.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The body of a second hostage in as many days, has been found in a building adjacent to the Shifa hospital compound.
- Excavation at the Shifa Hospital complex has revealed upper level of the underground bunker complex - and the storage of a considerable amount of munitions and weapons.
- IDF also finding that some tunnels were recently sealed off to give the impression that they ended and went no further.
- IDF focusing further now on S Gaza concentrations of Hamas facilities.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on the Al-Shifa and Qods hospitals now that IDF has entered and is in the process of securing them. The topside battle for Shifa is pretty much done, the underreported action is in the underground realm and it may be days before news is released on that battle. The Hamas command bunker below the hospital is reportedly as deep as 200 feet and consists of as many as 18 levels with deep tunnels reaching out to other areas in N Gaza.
IMHO - The directors and staff at these hospitals should be sweating bullets since it is increasing apparent that Hamas has used these facilities to conduct war against Israel. What did they know and how much. Cooperation with the military use is clear. What is also becoming clear is that they had a hand in the retention of hostages in these ‘hospitals’ as well.
Continued methodical search and clearing operations in N Gaza with intensity of combat declining as Hamas forces are eliminated. Expect increased aerial bombing of terror facilities in S Gaza to increase.
With Iran saying that they will not enter the war, the likely hood that Hezbollah will enter it has declined significantly. They will provide limited support to the Hamas and related terror cells in S Lebanon to continue to harass IDF, but there are no precursors to suggest anything bigger.