Very abbreviated post today as I have other pressing matters to take care of today. Tomorrows post likely to be more extensive.
Economy –
Prices at the gas pump have been bucking the forecasted trend this past month by dropping significantly. Led in part to decreased demand as global economies slow due to the approaching recession. Also earlier, high demand periods now have oil companies sitting on excess they need to move. Now futures are starting to factor in the reintroduction of Iranian crude to the market - increasing the supply side of the equation.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
More pro-Hamas protests, some blocking highways and bridges. Protestors overnight approached the WH, but not in the numbers of previous and without the same level of violence.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Lone wolf attacks on Jewish related targets is the primary concern. Assassination attempts on politicians - particularly those on the right is an increasing concern as well.
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Concern at a recent pro-football game when drones made two appearances over the stadium - causing pauses to the game.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Studies on data from the VAERS database indicate that post-wuhan jab era, cancers have increased something of the magnitude of 1000+%. This correlates to the medical community alerting to what is being called “turbo” cancers and links to the jab as well.
Biden / Harris Watch –
A year-long probe into the management of classified documents by President Joe Biden and his staff will likely not result in charges, according to two people close to the investigation. Special Counsel Robert Hur, along with his team, have been investigating the discovery of classified documents from Biden’s Vice Presidential tenure at his former office at the Penn Biden Center in Washington, DC, and at his home in Delaware. The Wall Street Journal initially noted that a criminal case was not anticipated, an analysis echoed by CNN.
OBSERVATION - Two tiered justice system.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
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RUMINT- Rumors persist that putin died and that his appearances are by a body double. A rumor that really hasn’t gotten much traction given the very limited evidence for and the more substantial evidence against.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with rain throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Same old, same old. Exceptions being the Ukraine effort in Kherson Oblast. Reports confirming that Ukraine has joined all the crossing sites on the left bank of the Dniper River and are pushing to the southwest.
Russians continuing to face staggering losses in the Avdiivka effort. Causalities (killed/wounded) are reaching 1000 / day and are the primary source for all casualties. Similar spike with armor / tanks losses.
Avdiivka -
Russia continues its costly push to seize Avdiivka
Outlook —-
Both sides in essentially an operational pause. Uncertain just how much longer Russia can sustain the losses at Adviivka. They have given it an almost Bakhmut level of priority and are losing a lot of troops and equipment. As weather conditions continue to cause the effectiveness of offensive actions to decline (muddy fields degrade maneuver necessary to defeat defensive positions) Russia has to expose more infantry to Ukrainian artillery fire.
Still very slow - Ukraine efforts in Kherson Oblast continue to grow and could accelerate if they are able to construct a temporary bridge to speed the crossing of vehicles, equipment and ammo.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The body of a second hostage in as many days, has been found in a building adjacent to the Shifa hospital compound.
- Excavation at the Shifa Hospital complex has revealed upper level of the underground bunker complex - and the storage of a considerable amount of munitions and weapons.
- IDF also finding that some tunnels were recently sealed off to give the impression that they ended and went no further.
- IDF focusing further now on S Gaza concentrations of Hamas facilities.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on the Al-Shifa and Qods hospitals now that IDF has entered and is in the process of securing them. The topside battle for Shifa is pretty much done, the underreported action is in the underground realm and it may be days before news is released on that battle. The Hamas command bunker below the hospital is reportedly as deep as 200 feet and consists of as many as 18 levels with deep tunnels reaching out to other areas in N Gaza.
IMHO - The directors and staff at these hospitals should be sweating bullets since it is increasing apparent that Hamas has used these facilities to conduct war against Israel. What did they know and how much. Cooperation with the military use is clear. What is also becoming clear is that they had a hand in the retention of hostages in these ‘hospitals’ as well.
Continued methodical search and clearing operations in N Gaza with intensity of combat declining as Hamas forces are eliminated. Expect increased aerial bombing of terror facilities in S Gaza to increase.
With Iran saying that they will not enter the war, the likely hood that Hezbollah will enter it has declined significantly. They will provide limited support to the Hamas and related terror cells in S Lebanon to continue to harass IDF, but there are no precursors to suggest anything bigger.
Thanks for your work and information.
Todays launch of the Musk Starship was spectacular. A couple of my observations in comparison to the first test
- All first stage Raptor engines performed nominally - in comparison to the many that failed on the first due on large part to launch pad design that allowed back pressures to damage them
- The “hot” separation went well. The first stage did fail during rotation maneuvers, very possibly due to damage from the second stage separation. SpaceX was expecting damage and this will provide critical data on how to reinforce for future tests.
- The six Raptor engines on the second stage performed flawlessly. An unknown situation caused the auto destruct to kick in at / near the moment of engine shut down.
I’ve not been this excited about the space program since the 60’s. Incredibly impressive and shows the incompetence of NASA in getting its heavy off the ground. Musk has some seriously smart people working for this project and it shows.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Macquarie Bank, Australia’s fifth-largest bank, announced it will phase out cash, cheque and phone payments in 2024 as it transitions to digital-only transactions.
The bank told customers they’ll be unable to write or deposit cheques and withdrawal or deposit cash over the counter by November 2024.
“Between January 2024 and November 2024, we’ll be phasing out our cash and cheque services across all Macquarie banking and wealth management products, including pension and super accounts,” the bank told customers, according to news.com.au.
The outlet noted Macquarie Bank’s announcement sparked criticism as another move towards a cashless society.
OBSERVATION - Australia has been one of the willing ‘test beds’ for globalist intentions, ranging from draconian wuhan restrictions to now attempts to drive the digital “cash less’ society. Something tells me that this abrupt move by the bank will generate considerable backlash. How severe? Depends on a lot of factors, one being just how kowtowed the Australian people are. Other banks in Australia as well as around the world will be watching closely.
Economy –
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said Friday that more interest rate hikes could yet be needed to bring down inflation. Inflation reports this week showed a slowing pace in both consumer and producer prices. However, Collins said recent data has been “noisy.”
“We need to look holistically at the data,” she said. “So [there has been] promising news, which is great. But I remain focused on really looking at the kind of full complement of information that we’re getting and making assessments in real time about the right thing to do.”
OBSERVATION - Forecast of continued high fed rates with a stronger likelihood of increasing them further. Not good news for the economy as it struggles to stablize under the current, relatively stable record high rates.
***
The cost of many items on Americans’ traditional Thanksgiving holiday grocery list have been rising faster than the increase of inflation for all items, in general, and this year is no different.
Over past year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items is up 3.2%, before seasonal adjustment, CNSNews reported Tuesday following the release of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data comparing October 2023 to October 2022. Some of the Thanksgiving meal items experiencing price hikes surpassing the nation’s CPI increase include:
- Uncooked Poultry, such as turkey: up 7.2%
- Sauces and gravies: up 7.5%
- Bread: up 6.3%
- Crackers, bread, and cracker products up: 6.0%
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Pro-Palestine protesters stormed a campus building at U Mich chanting support for terrorism, referencing the intifadas that slaughtered Israeli civilians.
OBSERVATION - Pro - Hamas demonstrations / riots appear to be trying to gain their second wind. An interesting feature that has been identified is the pre-positioning of signs and other riot/protest related materials in a very similar manner last seen during the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020 - indicating a wealthy and coordinated effort going on.
Also, different target zone. BLM/Antifa hit urban business centers. The current pro-hamas riots have a big target centering on colege/university campus as well as political sites off campus.
***
A pro-Palestinian activist group shared a frightening map of New York City newsrooms, businesses and landmark buildings — and called for “direct action” to “globalize intifada.”
In addition to news buildings, Within Our Lifetime, which describes itself as a Palestinian-led community organization, also called for followers to target the offices of technology companies
“Each of the locations on this map reflects the location of an office of an enemy of both the Palestinian people and colonized people all over the world. Today and beyond, these locations will be sites for popular mobilization in defense of our people,” the sickening Wednesday night post read.
“May this map serve as a call for every struggle to act in their own interest. As we do so, we uplift one another’s struggles and free Palestine from the river to the sea,” it continued, repeating the Palestine Liberation Organization mantra adopted by Hamas that calls for the eradication of Israel.
The controversial post has since been deleted.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-6/
OBSERVATION - This map still resides on parts of the interwebs. It clearly serves to layout future options to strike areas, building upon momentum in the pro-Hamas elements. Could also cross reference with Terrorism.
***
There have been at least 234 pro-Hamas rallies on U.S. college campuses since the October terrorist attacks against Israel, the Anti-Defamation League told Congress on Wednesday.
The large number of protests highlights the growing influence of pro-terrorist and anti-Semitic groups at American universities, a trend that has drawn condemnation from lawmakers and calls for banning Hamas-supporting groups on college campuses.
“We tracked 234 anti-Israel and pro-Hamas rallies on U.S. campuses,” said ADL director Jonathan Greenblatt during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing on Wednesday. “Not calls for a two-state solution, not calls for a one-state solution. These were calls for a final solution.”
OBSERVATION - There are some serious issues with the ADL and Shapiro notes some of them in the X link under POLITICAL FRONT below. Some of these issues are linked to the internal political civil war brewing within the democrat party. However, their message and tracking of pro-Hamas/anti-Israel events is a reasonable good assessment - so don’t kill the report due to the messenger at this stage. Clearly universities/colleges have skyrocketed to the forefront of anti-Israel action.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Two men on the FBI’s terrorist watch list are in custody after a burglary and pursuit that happened earlier this month in Granite Bay, according to the Placer County Sheriff’s office.
The sheriff’s office said deputies were alerted on Nov. 10, around 7:10 p.m., that two masked people were caught by security cameras trying to break into a Granite Bay home.
Arrested were 27-year-old Placido Lopez-Vargas and 23-year-old Angel Emmanuel, both are connected to what the FBI has deemed a South American Theft Group (SATG). Both individuals arrested this weekend were on an FBI terrorist watch list for being involved in transnational organized crime.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Navy has missed its recruiting goals for fiscal year 2023 by a wide mark, according to Navy Recruiting Command. On Tuesday, the command said that it brought in 30,200 enlisted active duty sailors this year, about 7,500 people (20 percent) short of its goal. It also missed its target for Navy Reserve enlisted recruits by 1,000 people.
For active-duty and reserve officers, recruitment fell short by 500 and 800 people respectively.
OBSERVATION - I’m not shocked at this. Woke military polices across all branches have demonized the primary demographic that historically has volunteered for service - red state Americans, who are predominantly white, heterosexual males. I can see how this trend could well be manufactured in order to justify the left’s desire to reintroduce the draft for “equality” purposes - further watering down our military readiness and permitting expansion of the military ‘woke’ agenda.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A number of major corporations have simultaneously launched a boycott of X, suspiciously within hours of their CEO/Leadership meeting with Xi in San Fran yesterday. They are claiming that X is now anti-semitic, while ignoring that they are maintaining presence on Meta/Fakebook, instagram and other social sites that have openly supported anti-Israeli actions.
A lot of this boycott effort appears to be coordinated via the leftist group Media Matters, and Musk is not going to let that go unopposed. Musk promised early Saturday morning to go “thermonuclear” against Media Matters.
“The split second court opens on Monday, X Corp will be filing a thermonuclear lawsuit against Media Matters and ALL those who colluded in this fraudulent attack on our company”
Musk also shared a video of Ben Shapiro, someone who ain’t afraid to call out antisemitism if he sees it, explaining the situation.
***
Speaker Johnson has fulfilled his promise to release the thousands of hours of J6 videos and boy are they ever condemning of pelosi and the faux tribunal. One video that stands out is the fake arrest of a FED infiltrator who is taken down a side hall, unhand cuffed and fists bumps a police officer. Another frame shows 4 photographers standing behind a police officer getting ready to open the door to the protestors - raising the question, how did these photographers get into the building and imbed with the police before all this got started? Remember also pelosi had a video team following her around as well that day - coincidence? I think not.
A public ‘online viewing room’ has been developed for watching Jan. 6 security video, but individual clips released to media or others will have faces blurred.
***
Democrats in Chicago planning the 2024 Democratic National Convention next summer are getting worried following a pro-Palestinian protest at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday night.
The fear comes from the recent increasing protests due to the events in Israel and Gaza, reminding Democrats of the infamous 1968 DNC convention in Chicago that saw massive anti-Vietnam War riots during the August event, CBS News reported.
OBSERVATION - The Gaza has already opened a rift in the democrat party between the moderate who support Israel and the marxist leftists (like the Squad) that support the annihilation of Israel. The only bright spot for the dems is that the convention is still many months away and that could give time for the Gaza situation to cool enough to draw away pro-Hamas supporters.
Biden / Harris Watch –
U.S. energy experts are warning of the economic and national security implications of Biden’s pact with China this week to move towards shutting down fossil fuel production in favor of green energy.
OBSERVATION - The Paris accords punish the low polluting nations and favor continued/extended pollution by China. This seems to be biden’s intention to force the conversion to ‘green’ energy and further kill the fossil fuel industry.
Illegal Immigration –
NYT reports NYC Mayor Eric Adams has announced that due to the financial impact of ongoing migrant arrivals, the city will have to make budget cuts that will reduce NYPD officers to below 30,000 & slash the Education Department by $1 billion, amongst other cuts. He warns more cuts will be necessary unless the city receives more federal money to help with migrant arrivals.
OBSERVATION - Poorly designed response will expose the city to even more crime from ‘locals’ as well as the illegals. This appears to be a typical response to cut those areas that will hurt the civilians to the point where they will be willing to shell out more tax dollars to restore those services - and come under greater control of the city.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with rain throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
About 10 drones were shot down near Kyiv overnight. A total of 29 of 38 Shahed drones launched by Russia were shot down. An Oil depot was damaged in Odesa region as result of drone attack overnight.
Ukraine forces expanded the salient in the Tokmak front to the east and west.
Russian forces appeared to be shifting their attack axis at Avdiivka, trying to directly attack the city via an industrial area instead of attacking from the flanks.
Outlook —-
Minor dynamics changes but the situation is remaining relative static across the fronts.
Interesting to note that in addition to ceasing naval missile attacks against Ukraine, the strategic bombers have also been silent. All the more evidence that they are trying to conserve limited cruise missiles for a later blitz on the Ukraine power grid.
Europe / NATO General –
Finnish border guards are forced to use tear gas as a large group of illegal migrants from Syria and Iraq are trying to force its way into Finland from Russia at the Niirila border crossing. Other Baltic countries facing similar surges in illegals being facilitated by Russia. Observers suggest this is a form of weaponized migration being used as a tool of hybrid warfare
Postimees media reports that Estonia has brought anti-tank “dragon teeth” barriers to the border with Russia in Narva.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The bodys of hostages being found mostly adjacent to the Shifa Hospital complex.
- IDF forces now pushing west to east across N Gaza, continuing to systematically capture and clear of Hamas et al forces
- Significant rocket attack from Lebanon with retaliation by IDF
GENERAL ——————————-
I haven’t noted a lot of these, but just about every day Israel announces the termination of key Hamas et al leadership. The key leaders, however, are embedded ‘safely’ in their multimillion dollar mansions in Qatar, far away from the war they inflicted on Gaza.
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US President Joe Biden’s top adviser on the Middle East said on Saturday the release of hostages held by the Palestinian terror group Hamas would lead to a surge in the delivery of humanitarian aid and a significant pause in fighting in Gaza.
“The hostages are released, you will see a significant, significant change,” Brett McGurk said at the IISS Manama Dialogue security summit in Bahrain.
Bahrain’s crown prince, speaking at the summit on Friday, called on Hamas to release Israeli women and children held hostage and for Israel in exchange to release from its prisons Palestinian women and children who he claimed were non-combatants.
US President Joe Biden’s top adviser on the Middle East said on Saturday the release of hostages held by the Palestinian terror group Hamas would lead to a surge in the delivery of humanitarian aid and a significant pause in fighting in Gaza.
“The hostages are released, you will see a significant, significant change,” Brett McGurk said at the IISS Manama Dialogue security summit in Bahrain.
Bahrain’s crown prince, speaking at the summit on Friday, called on Hamas to release Israeli women and children held hostage and for Israel in exchange to release from its prisons Palestinian women and children who he claimed were non-combatants.
OBSERVATION - Interesting how these non-Israelis like to speak for Israel. Israeli policies and goals have been pretty clearly stated - Hamas will be eliminated no matter what. A “pause” (euphemism for cease fire) would be a victory for Hamas and undercut the operational momentum Israel currently has. This proposal may be a regurgitation of an earlier, similar one that was flat out rejected by Israel.
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Commanding Officer of the Southern Command in the Shifa Hospital: “We see the presence of Hamas in all the hospitals, it is a definite, clear presence. They are cynically using these hospitals as we can see here in the heart of Shifa”
***
According to a November 14 poll by the Arab World for Research and Development, Palestinians living in the West Bank overwhelmingly answered that they supported the attack to either an extreme or “somewhat” extent (83.1%.) Only 6.9% answered that they were “extremely” or “somewhat” against the attack, and 8.4% expressed that they had no opinion either way.
Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip show a little less consensus but the overall majority supported the attack. A mass of 63.6% said that they supported the attack “extremely” or to a “somewhat” extent. A further 14.4% answered that they did not oppose or support the attack. Showing a greater rift than that of the West Bank, 20.9% of Palestinians living in Gaza opposed the attack to some degree.
A total of 75% of respondents agreed with the October 7 attack to any extent.
OBSERVATION - They brought this upon their own heads. They are not the ‘innocents’ the pro-hamas media mouth pieces make them out to be.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF says that over the past day it carried out strikes against dozens of targets and Hamas operatives in the Gaza Strip. The sites included command rooms, rocket launch sites, and weapons production labs, it says.
IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari said on Friday evening that IDF troops located additional underground infrastructure in Shifa Hospital in Gaza, and continue to work in order to “collect all information about the hostages”.
Hamas or affiliated group managed a rocket barrage against Tel Aviv overnight. This shows elements still present in the areas of N Gaza not under the control of IDF ground forces.
IDF continues to shift its attention to S Gaza with IAF airstrikes in the vicinity of Hamad Towers, west of Khan Yunis.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
More than 20 shells and missiles were fired from southern Lebanon towards Israeli settlements overnight. IDF responding with artillery and air strikes. In one instance, hitting an aluminum plant.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli airstrikes early Friday targeted several sites near Syria’s capital city of Damascus, aiming at sites with militia units reportedly backed by Iran and pointing to a widening war in the region.
The airstrikes reportedly killed two pro-Iranian fighters at the city of Sayyidah Zaynab, located on the southern outskirts of Damascus while conducting raids targeting a Hezbollah arms depot and other sites, reports The Times of Israel.
Syria’s state news agency SANA, citing sources in the military, earlier reported “material damage” from the strikes.
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli raids to arrest Hamas and other terror elements continue. Multiple arrests made.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A defense official tells there have been multiple attacks against US forces in Syria today that have resulted in multiple minor injuries. We’re now at more than SIXTY attacks on US forces in Iraq & Syria in one month
Israeli Air Force Commander, Tomer Bar, says the Israeli Air Force has plans to strike in Yemen.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on the Al-Shifa and Qods hospitals now that IDF has entered and is in the process of securing them. The topside battle for Shifa is pretty much done, the underreported action is in the underground realm and it may be days before news is released on that battle. The Hamas command bunker below the hospital is reportedly as deep as 200 feet and consists of multiple levels with deep tunnels reaching out to other areas in N Gaza.
Israel will continue to methodically search and clear sections of Gaza city as its forces now move eastward. IAF will also increase targeting of Hamas et al elements in S Gaza.
With the pulling of Iranian support, i suspect that much of the “resistance” movement will not grow very much, other than to try to keep Israeli forces harassed, hoping for a lucky shot. One cannot rule out a possible deception by Iran, and they have the capability to launch, with Hezbollah, a major attack. But currently that doesn’t seem likely but must be watched closely anyway.
Iran –
See Israel above - tossing Hamas under the bus.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Central / South America General-
Brazil’s economy, governed by socialist leader Lula da Silva, entered negative territory in Q3, 2023.
OBSERVATION - Being true to form, leftist govts in Central/south America will have their economies severely damaged under their rule. Since many have just recently completed their presidential/parliamentary election cycles, this means multiple years of economic hits for the people.
A crash of the Brazilian economy could cause added pressure on the US border from economic refugees.