The computer ate some of my overnight notes, so I may have missed a few items - don’t have the time to reconstruct, so going off memory for some.
However, with that, the pace of events has slowed down a little, giving my fingers a chance to recover from the past week.
Economy –
Unconfirmed rumors that Bank of America (BOA) is nearly insolvent due to impacts from high treasury bonds. Some say that if the treasury bond hits 6%, BoA may take a hit at the waterline and start to go down. They also include Wells Fargo in the potential meltdown as well.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Riots/Protests by pro-Hamas groups in NYC marked Veterans day for the big apple. There was some vandalism reported.
More evidence that the pro-Hamas are increasingly rejecting the support and presence of LGBT/TRANS community in their marches. Videos show confrontations between these elements at recent protests.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Lone wolf attacks on Jewish related targets is the primary concern. Assassination attempts on politicians - particularly those on the right is an increasing concern as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army has changed their marketing methods / videos to that which has more white males and the absence of women and trans. This appears to be a pivot back to trying to reach the red staters who have largely filled the ranks of the military but who the regime and military leadership have demonized over the past three years.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The house is putting together a 2 part, 2 month CR for the fed budget.
The new speaker is taking a lot of heat for delaying the release of the J6 videos and for saying that there isn’t enough evidence at this stage to go forward with a biden impeachment action.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden appearing to forget what he was supposed to be doing at the official Veterans Day memorial at Arlington National Cemetery on Saturday.
X users tore into Biden for freezing at the wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and having to be directed where to stand by U.S. service members attending to the solemn memorial.
OBSERVATION - biden is way, way past the stage he should be removed from office due to his dementia alone. To screw up on an important ceremony as this is unforgivable.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with rain throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively quiet along the fronts. Action is subdued most likely due to heavy mud in the fields. This is forcing much of the fighting to be by light infantry in dismounted attacks.
Outlook —-
Both sides in essentially an operational pause. Russia desiring to get an offensive underway in the eastern front area as well as resume operations to capture Adviivka.
I expect no significant ground action by either side for the near future.
Europe / NATO General –
Remembrance Day/Veterans Day - London police arrested more than 120 people Saturday night, as a pro-Palestinian rally in the city drew a crowd of over 300,000 protesters. Demonstrators were observed wearing face coverings, setting off fireworks, waving Palestinian flags and carrying anti-Israel signs. Right-wing counter-protesters also attended the event, causing skirmishes to break out.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF continues to close in on Al-Shifa Hospital.
- Increased calls for cease fire by the international community.
- Results from the emergency Arab council in Saudi Arabia largely talk.
GENERAL ——————————-
Organizations like the World Health Organization and Red Cross are bemoaning that hospitals in Gaza are now apparently out of power. The Israeli military says it has agreed to help evacuate babies from the hospital to a “safer” facility but denies Al-Shifa has lost power. An evacuation corridor is being opened from the Al-Shifa hospital to Gaza’s main road south, the Israeli military’s Arabic spokesman has announced.
Israel’s president Isaac Herzog says Hamas has its base underneath the building - something Hamas denies. The Israeli military says it is not hitting the hospital during fighting.
Gaza’s second biggest hospital, Al-Quds, is also reported by a charity to have run out of fuel
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF reportedly eliminated Saturday Hamas’ Sabra Tel al-Hawa Battalion, after a week and a half of intense battles led by the Golani Brigade.
The Sabra Battalion of the terror organization is considered one of the four strongest battalions in Gaza City. According to Golani Brigade data, its troops, together with forces from the 7th Armored Brigade, undoubtedly killed about 300 terrorists. And approximately 150 more are estimated to be under the rubble of buildings or in destroyed tunnels. Additional senior Hamas figures were also taken out.
By Friday night, the IDF announced that the 401st Brigade had destroyed Outpost “Badr” of Hamas’s Shati Battalion, killing 150 terrorists in the stronghold.
***
As with other days, Hamas rocket attacks are becoming fewer and fewer with larger time gaps between barrages.
The link below depicts the projected Israeli force deployments and key locations
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-sw-LmXAAAeD9D?format=jpg&name=large
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued tit - for - tat with Israel gradually expanding the target list in southern Lebanon to include more Hezbollah munitions and other facilities.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army is striking Syrian territory after two launches were detected into the Golan. The rockets fell in open areas - Israeli army
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli raids to arrest Hamas and other terror elements continue.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Continued attacks on US bases in eastern Syria/western Iraq. Houthi continue launching drones and ballistic missiles towards southern Israel.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Arab summit in Saudi Arabia finished with very little other than rhetoric to show.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on the Al-Shifa and Qods hospitals as IDF continues to close in and prepares to seize them. IDF is facilitating evacuations from those hospitals by opening safe routes, while Hamas continues to try to keep patents and refugees in place. This will be THE defining battle of the war and won’t be resolved in a quick or clean manner.
The rest of the arab world has essentially tossed Hamas under the bus. Apart from beating their chests and wordy statements, they are sitting on the sidelines.
Iraq -
An Iraqi armed faction announces the targeting of the “Ain al-Assad” base, where American forces are stationed in Anbar Governorate
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Arabia on Saturday helped to block a bid by Arab and Muslim countries to militarily and economically isolate Israel, according to Israeli media reports.
Most of the states present at an Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) emergency summit in Riyadh focusing on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza sought to impose five measures against the Jewish state, Channel 12 reported.
The demands were to prevent the transfer of U.S. military equipment to Israel from American bases in the Middle East region; suspend all diplomatic and economic contacts with Israel; cut back oil sales to the United States over Washington’s support for Israel; stop Israeli air traffic over the skies of the Gulf and send a joint delegation to the United States, Europe and Russia to push for a ceasefire.
The resolution to adopt these measures was blocked by Israel’s Abraham accords partner states the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. They were joined by Egypt and Jordan, two countries with long-standing peace agreements with Israel. Saudi Arabia, Mauritania and Djibouti also opposed the measures.
OBSERVATION - The Abraham accords and the prospect of prosperity with trade relations with Israel did show fruit at the conference. Hamas has been tossed under the bus and these nations are looking past the war to restoration of a more stable region.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Ping above and sorry for the double clutch - darn mouse!
Ping above and sorry for the double clutch - darn mouse!
Economy –
(FO) California, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, and Nebraska will raise minimum wages by 13% or more in 2024, which will challenge these states’ small businesses and consumers dealing with inflation. California will increase the minimum wage for fast food workers to $20 per hour on 01 April 2024 – a 23% pay hike compared to last year’s average hourly wage for California fast food employees.
OBSERVATION - Those with a lick of common sense know exactly where this is going. Increase wages this much and the companies have few choice in order to remain in business. Pass increased costs to customers, layoff workers, increase automation and reduce other benefits. Increase costs will decrease sales proportionately, cutting deep into a company’s profits, forcing even more actions to cut overhead costs.
Even here in the Redoubt, I can’t take my grandkids out to McD’s for a happy meal for anything less than $30 anymore. Far cheaper to take them home and heat up some chicken nuggets and fries purchased at wally world. And I’m of the generation that remembers getting a burger, fries and a drink for under a dollar in the Before Years.
***
Inflation is putting the “Bah! Humbug!” into the holidays this year - especially when it comes to Christmas presents - a new survey of Americans’ spending expectations reveals.
Half (50%) of all Americans say “Santa won’t be as generous this year due to inflation,” according to a national survey conducted by WalletHub. And, one in three (34%) say they’re “foregoing gifts this year due to inflation.”
More than one in four (28%) say they’ll spend less than last year on holiday shopping.
What’s more, a quarter (24%) say they still haven’t paid off all of their holiday debt from last year, and half (47%) don’t expect to pay off this year’s credit card charges on time.In fact, one in five (19%) plan to apply for a new credit card, so they can charge this year’s holiday expenses.
U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of 2% less than last year on holiday-related items, The Conference Board reports. About six in ten cite inflation as a reason, as 59% expect the cost of gifts to rise and 55% think the cost of food will be higher.
Indeed, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show the cost of traditional holiday-food items, such as treats and turkey dinners, is already much higher than it was a year ago:
Cookies up 6.6%
Sugar and sugar substitutes up 7.7%
Candy and chewing gum up 7.5%
Poultry, such as turkey up 6.7%
Sauces and gravies up 6.7%
Bread up 6.1%
Crackers, bread, and cracker products up 6.9%
Making matters even worse, Americans’ earnings haven’t kept pace with inflation. Real average weekly earnings have fallen 0.1% over the past year, according to the latest BLS data (Sept. 2022 to Sept. 2023).
OBSERVATION - The local wally world is already advertising pre-Black Friday sales in an effort to get a jump on the Christmas shopping season. The combination of increased debt and fewer sales is a harbinger of bad news for the economy, especially smaller businesses that have traditionally relied on the season to pull them into the black for the year. The big stores like walmart and target have the resources to rough a bad season out, small businesses not to.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The weekend produced more large marches/protests in support of Hamas. However, it seems that some of the edge has worn off of them. However, the fight in Gaza will last for a considerable time, so there is more opportunity for future violence.
****
MIT takes it to another level. The administration promised to suspend students who continued to violate their policies because “a line had been crossed, “ this in regards to violence and intimidation of Jewish students. Yesterday, the administration backed down from their promise. They have shown that actions against Jews at MIT do not have consequences.
“Because we later heard serious concerns about collateral consequences for the students, such as visa issues, we have decided, as an interim action, that the students who remained after the deadline will be suspended from non-academic campus activities. The students will remain enrolled at MIT and will be able to attend academic classes and labs.”
This “serious consequences” essentially were that foreign students faced deportation if suspended for their protests.
RELATED - A letter signed by more than 300 UCLA faculty members demanded that the school administration denounce pro-Hamas protests that incite violence against Jewish students and teachers.
The letter said that the Hamas’ massacre “should be condemned irrespective of political views,” that the administration must “make the strongest possible statements” condemning the attacks, and that there is no room for moral equivalence, “both-sideism,” or ambiguity.
“[W]hile we all cherish the First Amendment and its guarantees of freedom of speech and assembly, UCLA must ensure that any hate speeches and celebrations of the Hamas massacre by students and faculty on our campus are prevented from crossing the line from protected speech to unlawful incitement,” the letter reads. “We were horrified to see Pro-Palestinian rallies on campus in which the massacres by Hamas were celebrated, including explicit calls for violence (including chanting ‘Intifada’ or event advertisements featuring images of weapons/violence).”
***
Stephen Dettelbach, the Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, stated his wish to reimpose a ban on assault weapons. He made these comments during an interview at Harvard Kennedy School this week.
During the Q&A at Harvard, Dettelbach was asked about gun control measures on his wish list.
He responded, “I think that it would be helpful if we had universal background checks in this country. I think that’s something that seems to make some sense. I agree that we ought to consider actually reinstating a ban on certain types of assault weapons.”
OBSERVATION - The regime wants a disarmed populace and they will try what ever means of go-around to the laws and congress that they can find. Already they’ve been stopped with their bump stock and ‘ghost’ gun ban efforts as overstepping their regulatory authority. They are cracking down on licensed dealers and hobbyists and are supportive of the current Ammo ban/restriction legislation currently in congress. The regime desperately wants an unarmed population - but I’m convinced that they will try to go forward with some kind of extra-legal effort. Martial law before the elections maybe? The thought of the chaos that would cause horrifies me because that action would cause so many secondary effects - economic collapse, open fighting and potential separation of red from blue states (and perhaps internal separate between red and blue counties ).
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Lone wolf attacks on Jewish related targets is the primary concern. Assassination attempts on politicians - particularly those on the right is an increasing concern as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. reinforcements are reportedly heading from the Rumailan base in Hasakah to the Al-Omar and Conico bases.
***
Observers monitoring carrier related aircraft flights suggest that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower CSG arrived in the northern Arabian Sea, off the coast of Oman, on November 12.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Speaker Johnson confirmed internally he never said he wouldn’t move forward w/Biden impeachment. He is reported to have said it was a rumor was put out by McCarthy proxies trying to weaken him. Speaker Johnson likely putting out statement early this week clarifying his position.
OBSERVATION - If true, the daggers are coming out within the republican caucus. Will have to monitor to see if there is any validity to this claim.
RELATED - House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) said the Judiciary Committee will finish interviews and depositions by the end of the year and make a decision on impeaching President Joe Biden in early 2024.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegals brought to the massive tent city constructed by NY have apparently turned their noses up at it and went back to Brooklyn (?) from whence they were bussed.
China –
China and Pakistan kicked off their largest-ever iteration of the Sea Guardian exercise on Saturday, which aims to practice guarding critical sea lanes.
OBSERVATION - While on the cover swing it is to “protect” sea lanes, it is far more likely that these exercises are in preparation to close these lanes in the event of a war - particularly Taiwan.
***
Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels continued harass Philippine Navy resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal. These harassments have the potential to increase to a more serious and lethal incident.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
By the end of this year the seventh of ten Russian Borei-class SSBN (ballistic missile carrying) nuclear submarines enters service. Three more are in various stages of completion and expected to enter service between 2024 and 2028. These may be the last SSBNs Russia can afford for a long time.
The Boreis are essential to replace the aging Delta IVs. Russia had already built a class of subs to replace the Deltas, and these were the enormous 24,000-ton Typhoon/Akula class SSBNs. These proved too expensive to build and operate. Six of them entered service between 1981 and 1989, and to save money, all were retired or scrapped by 2009. One Typhoon was still around until early 2023, to test new SLBM designs. That’s because the missile tubes on the Typhoon are so large that they can easily be modified to handle any new SLBM design. The last Typhoon retired in early 2023.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsub/articles/20231113.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with rain throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively quiet along the fronts. Action is subdued most likely due to heavy mud in the fields. This is forcing much of the fighting to be by light infantry in dismounted attacks.
Kherson Axis -
Interesting actions by the Russian media. In a series of three alerts on Monday, the RIA state news agency said that the command of Russia’s Dnepr group of forces had decided to relocate troops to “more favorable positions” east of the Dnipro.
It said that, after the regrouping, the Dnepr force would release some troops to be deployed in offensives on other fronts.
RIA said the Russian military command had agreed with the Dnepr leadership’s conclusions and ordered the relocation of troops to start.
Minutes later, RIA withdrew all three alerts without explanation.
Another state agency, TASS, published just one alert on troops regrouping to more favorable positions, and then withdrew it, saying it had been released in error.
NOTE - Such pull back would support reports that Ukraine is expanding its beachheads on the left side of the Dniper River - a move that could eventually place the Russian flank defenses against the Ukraine assault on the Tokmak front in danger. Intelligence takes all info like this, cross references to other info in order to gain a truer picture of the situation thru the fog of war. In this instance, Russia has commonly used the excuse of “relocate troops to “more favorable positions”” as soft speak for a forced retreat.
Outlook —-
Both sides in essentially an operational pause. Russia desiring to get an offensive underway in the eastern front area as well as resume operations to capture Adviivka.
I expect no significant ground action by either side for the near future.
Europe / NATO General –
Spanish Unrest -
Millions of people across 42 cities in Spain have taken to the streets in response to the socialist government’s plan to stay in power by offering amnesty to Catalan separatists. The turnout in Madrid was particularly stunning.
The uprising was sparked by socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s promise of amnesty to violent Catalan separatists who participated in the illegal and failed push for Catalan independence in 2017 in exchange for their delegates supporting his coalition in parliament.
OBSERVATION - Reporters are shocked at the size of the turnout across Spain. So far violence has been limited and legal challenges to Sanchez’s amnesty proposal are going forward. Spain is set for automatic new elections later this month should no side gain enough seats. Sanchez and the socialists are scrambling to overcome this resistance to the amnesty switch over of support before the revote mandate hits. With the across the board rejection, something like over 70% oppose the amnesty, the socialists could take a blood bath at the polls.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Rumors of a hostage deal were in effect, but Hamas later cancelled any deal.
- Continued fighting around Shifa Hospital with reporters of as many as 2000 taking shelter in the facilitiy.
- The Islamic Resistance group intensified their attacks on US bases in eastern Syria and western Iraq. Unconfirmed reports of 4 US persons (soldiers?) being killed. US airstrikes in retaliation.
GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli army has released a statement giving an update about its continuing operation in the Gaza Strip, along with some pictures.
The army said it has conducted 4300 air strikes during its campaign against Hamas, targeting tunnel shafts and Hamas command and control centers, hitting “3,000 terrorist infrastructure sites”, according to the statement.
****
In large part due to Hamas using hospitals as human shields and in particular the Shifa hospital, the media mouth pieces have upped their claims over death and destruction at Gaza hospitals. In part, Hamas counted on the historical reluctance of Israel to go after them when they hid in such facilities. That assumption has turned out to be deadly for Hamas this time around.
RELATED - The European Union on Sunday condemned Hamas for using “hospitals and civilians as human shields” in Gaza, while also urging Israel to show “maximum restraint” to protect civilians.
***
Hamas has also reportedly chased Gazans away from trucks carrying food and other relief supplies - taking them for themselves. These actions have been recorded on video and placed on social media sites.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Link below to one of the general maps showing the extent of the operation in Gaza
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-qyXikWUAA8yuR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Fighting continues to be intense around the Shifa hospital. IDF delivered some gasoline to the hospital overnight, but Hamas reportedly either stole or otherwise prevented the hospital from receiving it. Israel has also offered to evacuate those in critical care - an offer once again rejected by Hamas. Gaza’s Hamas-run (ie propaganda mouthpiece) health ministry says more than 2,000 people are inside Al-Shifa, including patients, medical staff and displaced people
***
IDF continued search and clearing operations in other portions of N Gaza, reportedly flushing out, fixing and killing pockets of Hamas terrorists, as well as locating arms caches and tunnel entrances. Overnight, Israel claimed to have captured the Port of Gaza.
***
Hamas et al still managed to shoot some rockets at Israel, but recently, they’ve tuned to trying to target Israeli forces within Gaza. these attacks are generally ineffective and have hit their own positions instead.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari: “The IDF has operational plans to change the security situation in the north. The security situation will not remain in a way where residents of the north will not feel safe to return to their homes.” Dropped leaflets warn Lebanese to stay away from Hezbollah sites immediately.
Per N12, the IDF is preparing to launch extensive strikes on Hezbollah in response to recent attacks. Strikes are expected to be significant so steps are underway to prepare for the possibility of rocket fire from Lebanon towards north and central Israel. Already, Israeli warplanes attacked a truck in Zahrani, in the south of Lebanon, 40 kilometers from the border, breaking all “red lines” in Lebanon.
Overall, the IDF estimates that war in the north is inevitable.
Israeli warnings come after Hezbollah / Hamas forces significantly increased their attacks in N Israel. In response, the IDF struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon
— Rockets were fired from Lebanon at northern Israel, with some intercepted by the Iron Dome
— Border skirmishes have resulted in civilian and military casualties on both sides
The IDF admitted to over 20 casualties, one of the worst days since the war began
Israel also warned Hezbollah of an imminent attack in response to today’s casualties, with an Israeli military analyst saying that a war with Hezbollah is ‘inevitable’
Hezbollah launched an anti-tank missile attack from Lebanon, injuring at least 14 civilians and seven soldiers near Menara
The missile hit vehicles near Dovev, with some victims being Israel Electric Corporation employees. Hezbollah claiming it targeted soldiers installing surveillance equipment
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Resistance strikes on US positions in E Syria - see below.
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli raids to arrest Hamas and other terror elements continue.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Overnight, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (a front for Iran-backed militias) claimed it carried out an attack against the Green Village, a US outpost in eastern Syria. Iranian militia also attacked U.S. Conico base with advanced Grad missiles. Unconfirmed reports of 4 US dead.
Senior U.S. defense official - 6-7 Iranian proxy fighters were killed at one of the 2 locations struck by U.S. warplanes in E Syria tonight. IRGC HQ/safe house. 2 hours of secondary explosions seen at second location suggesting large weapons and ammo storage
“Today, in response to continued provocations by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their affiliated groups in Iraq and Syria, U.S. Central Command (USCENTOM) conducted air strikes against facilities near the cities of Abu Kamal and Mayadin,” said General Michael Erik Kurilla, USCENTCOM Commander.
U.S. airstrikes have targeted one of the largest Iranian militia headquarters in Al-Siyal town in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, resulting in casualties and injuries among the militia forces stationed at the military base.
***
Not a lot of word from the Houthi’s overnight.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The pro-Hamas protests in London over the weekend were among the largest ever.
In France, very large pro-Israeli marches.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on the Al-Shifa and Qods hospitals as IDF continues to close in and prepares to seize them. IDF is facilitating evacuations from those hospitals by opening safe routes, while Hamas continues to try to keep patents and refugees in place. This will be THE defining battle of the war and won’t be resolved in a quick or clean manner.
The situation in the north is deteriorating and escalating. Israel is warning Lebanese in the border regions to get away from Hezbollah munitions storage sites, rocket launching sites, personnel facilities, etc. Mossad has for years now been cultivating intelligence sources within southern Lebanon to identify these mostly underground bunkers with rockets and other munitions with the help of locals who are disaffected with Hezbollah’s actions. Israel has maintained the bulk of their ground and air forces in a posture ready to strike Hezbollah should the need arise.
Action in eastern Syria / western Iraq is heating up quickly. “Resistance” forces have significantly upped their attacks while the US has very gradually upped its response as well. Failure to strike at these Iranian backed militias with any significant, overwhelming power is encouraging more and more attacks. Now it appears that they may have drawn US blood. Granted, targeting these militias is a challenge as they operate in a dispersed manner, we have a ton of assets in the region that can be used to overcome that advantage. Escalation in this aspect of the war may end up drawing Iran directly into the mix sooner than later.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.