Economy –
(FO) California, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, and Nebraska will raise minimum wages by 13% or more in 2024, which will challenge these states’ small businesses and consumers dealing with inflation. California will increase the minimum wage for fast food workers to $20 per hour on 01 April 2024 – a 23% pay hike compared to last year’s average hourly wage for California fast food employees.
OBSERVATION - Those with a lick of common sense know exactly where this is going. Increase wages this much and the companies have few choice in order to remain in business. Pass increased costs to customers, layoff workers, increase automation and reduce other benefits. Increase costs will decrease sales proportionately, cutting deep into a company’s profits, forcing even more actions to cut overhead costs.
Even here in the Redoubt, I can’t take my grandkids out to McD’s for a happy meal for anything less than $30 anymore. Far cheaper to take them home and heat up some chicken nuggets and fries purchased at wally world. And I’m of the generation that remembers getting a burger, fries and a drink for under a dollar in the Before Years.
***
Inflation is putting the “Bah! Humbug!” into the holidays this year - especially when it comes to Christmas presents - a new survey of Americans’ spending expectations reveals.
Half (50%) of all Americans say “Santa won’t be as generous this year due to inflation,” according to a national survey conducted by WalletHub. And, one in three (34%) say they’re “foregoing gifts this year due to inflation.”
More than one in four (28%) say they’ll spend less than last year on holiday shopping.
What’s more, a quarter (24%) say they still haven’t paid off all of their holiday debt from last year, and half (47%) don’t expect to pay off this year’s credit card charges on time.In fact, one in five (19%) plan to apply for a new credit card, so they can charge this year’s holiday expenses.
U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of 2% less than last year on holiday-related items, The Conference Board reports. About six in ten cite inflation as a reason, as 59% expect the cost of gifts to rise and 55% think the cost of food will be higher.
Indeed, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show the cost of traditional holiday-food items, such as treats and turkey dinners, is already much higher than it was a year ago:
Cookies up 6.6%
Sugar and sugar substitutes up 7.7%
Candy and chewing gum up 7.5%
Poultry, such as turkey up 6.7%
Sauces and gravies up 6.7%
Bread up 6.1%
Crackers, bread, and cracker products up 6.9%
Making matters even worse, Americans’ earnings haven’t kept pace with inflation. Real average weekly earnings have fallen 0.1% over the past year, according to the latest BLS data (Sept. 2022 to Sept. 2023).
OBSERVATION - The local wally world is already advertising pre-Black Friday sales in an effort to get a jump on the Christmas shopping season. The combination of increased debt and fewer sales is a harbinger of bad news for the economy, especially smaller businesses that have traditionally relied on the season to pull them into the black for the year. The big stores like walmart and target have the resources to rough a bad season out, small businesses not to.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The weekend produced more large marches/protests in support of Hamas. However, it seems that some of the edge has worn off of them. However, the fight in Gaza will last for a considerable time, so there is more opportunity for future violence.
****
MIT takes it to another level. The administration promised to suspend students who continued to violate their policies because “a line had been crossed, “ this in regards to violence and intimidation of Jewish students. Yesterday, the administration backed down from their promise. They have shown that actions against Jews at MIT do not have consequences.
“Because we later heard serious concerns about collateral consequences for the students, such as visa issues, we have decided, as an interim action, that the students who remained after the deadline will be suspended from non-academic campus activities. The students will remain enrolled at MIT and will be able to attend academic classes and labs.”
This “serious consequences” essentially were that foreign students faced deportation if suspended for their protests.
RELATED - A letter signed by more than 300 UCLA faculty members demanded that the school administration denounce pro-Hamas protests that incite violence against Jewish students and teachers.
The letter said that the Hamas’ massacre “should be condemned irrespective of political views,” that the administration must “make the strongest possible statements” condemning the attacks, and that there is no room for moral equivalence, “both-sideism,” or ambiguity.
“[W]hile we all cherish the First Amendment and its guarantees of freedom of speech and assembly, UCLA must ensure that any hate speeches and celebrations of the Hamas massacre by students and faculty on our campus are prevented from crossing the line from protected speech to unlawful incitement,” the letter reads. “We were horrified to see Pro-Palestinian rallies on campus in which the massacres by Hamas were celebrated, including explicit calls for violence (including chanting ‘Intifada’ or event advertisements featuring images of weapons/violence).”
***
Stephen Dettelbach, the Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, stated his wish to reimpose a ban on assault weapons. He made these comments during an interview at Harvard Kennedy School this week.
During the Q&A at Harvard, Dettelbach was asked about gun control measures on his wish list.
He responded, “I think that it would be helpful if we had universal background checks in this country. I think that’s something that seems to make some sense. I agree that we ought to consider actually reinstating a ban on certain types of assault weapons.”
OBSERVATION - The regime wants a disarmed populace and they will try what ever means of go-around to the laws and congress that they can find. Already they’ve been stopped with their bump stock and ‘ghost’ gun ban efforts as overstepping their regulatory authority. They are cracking down on licensed dealers and hobbyists and are supportive of the current Ammo ban/restriction legislation currently in congress. The regime desperately wants an unarmed population - but I’m convinced that they will try to go forward with some kind of extra-legal effort. Martial law before the elections maybe? The thought of the chaos that would cause horrifies me because that action would cause so many secondary effects - economic collapse, open fighting and potential separation of red from blue states (and perhaps internal separate between red and blue counties ).
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Lone wolf attacks on Jewish related targets is the primary concern. Assassination attempts on politicians - particularly those on the right is an increasing concern as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. reinforcements are reportedly heading from the Rumailan base in Hasakah to the Al-Omar and Conico bases.
***
Observers monitoring carrier related aircraft flights suggest that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower CSG arrived in the northern Arabian Sea, off the coast of Oman, on November 12.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Speaker Johnson confirmed internally he never said he wouldn’t move forward w/Biden impeachment. He is reported to have said it was a rumor was put out by McCarthy proxies trying to weaken him. Speaker Johnson likely putting out statement early this week clarifying his position.
OBSERVATION - If true, the daggers are coming out within the republican caucus. Will have to monitor to see if there is any validity to this claim.
RELATED - House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) said the Judiciary Committee will finish interviews and depositions by the end of the year and make a decision on impeaching President Joe Biden in early 2024.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegals brought to the massive tent city constructed by NY have apparently turned their noses up at it and went back to Brooklyn (?) from whence they were bussed.
China –
China and Pakistan kicked off their largest-ever iteration of the Sea Guardian exercise on Saturday, which aims to practice guarding critical sea lanes.
OBSERVATION - While on the cover swing it is to “protect” sea lanes, it is far more likely that these exercises are in preparation to close these lanes in the event of a war - particularly Taiwan.
***
Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels continued harass Philippine Navy resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal. These harassments have the potential to increase to a more serious and lethal incident.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
By the end of this year the seventh of ten Russian Borei-class SSBN (ballistic missile carrying) nuclear submarines enters service. Three more are in various stages of completion and expected to enter service between 2024 and 2028. These may be the last SSBNs Russia can afford for a long time.
The Boreis are essential to replace the aging Delta IVs. Russia had already built a class of subs to replace the Deltas, and these were the enormous 24,000-ton Typhoon/Akula class SSBNs. These proved too expensive to build and operate. Six of them entered service between 1981 and 1989, and to save money, all were retired or scrapped by 2009. One Typhoon was still around until early 2023, to test new SLBM designs. That’s because the missile tubes on the Typhoon are so large that they can easily be modified to handle any new SLBM design. The last Typhoon retired in early 2023.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsub/articles/20231113.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with rain throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively quiet along the fronts. Action is subdued most likely due to heavy mud in the fields. This is forcing much of the fighting to be by light infantry in dismounted attacks.
Kherson Axis -
Interesting actions by the Russian media. In a series of three alerts on Monday, the RIA state news agency said that the command of Russia’s Dnepr group of forces had decided to relocate troops to “more favorable positions” east of the Dnipro.
It said that, after the regrouping, the Dnepr force would release some troops to be deployed in offensives on other fronts.
RIA said the Russian military command had agreed with the Dnepr leadership’s conclusions and ordered the relocation of troops to start.
Minutes later, RIA withdrew all three alerts without explanation.
Another state agency, TASS, published just one alert on troops regrouping to more favorable positions, and then withdrew it, saying it had been released in error.
NOTE - Such pull back would support reports that Ukraine is expanding its beachheads on the left side of the Dniper River - a move that could eventually place the Russian flank defenses against the Ukraine assault on the Tokmak front in danger. Intelligence takes all info like this, cross references to other info in order to gain a truer picture of the situation thru the fog of war. In this instance, Russia has commonly used the excuse of “relocate troops to “more favorable positions”” as soft speak for a forced retreat.
Outlook —-
Both sides in essentially an operational pause. Russia desiring to get an offensive underway in the eastern front area as well as resume operations to capture Adviivka.
I expect no significant ground action by either side for the near future.
Europe / NATO General –
Spanish Unrest -
Millions of people across 42 cities in Spain have taken to the streets in response to the socialist government’s plan to stay in power by offering amnesty to Catalan separatists. The turnout in Madrid was particularly stunning.
The uprising was sparked by socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s promise of amnesty to violent Catalan separatists who participated in the illegal and failed push for Catalan independence in 2017 in exchange for their delegates supporting his coalition in parliament.
OBSERVATION - Reporters are shocked at the size of the turnout across Spain. So far violence has been limited and legal challenges to Sanchez’s amnesty proposal are going forward. Spain is set for automatic new elections later this month should no side gain enough seats. Sanchez and the socialists are scrambling to overcome this resistance to the amnesty switch over of support before the revote mandate hits. With the across the board rejection, something like over 70% oppose the amnesty, the socialists could take a blood bath at the polls.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Rumors of a hostage deal were in effect, but Hamas later cancelled any deal.
- Continued fighting around Shifa Hospital with reporters of as many as 2000 taking shelter in the facilitiy.
- The Islamic Resistance group intensified their attacks on US bases in eastern Syria and western Iraq. Unconfirmed reports of 4 US persons (soldiers?) being killed. US airstrikes in retaliation.
GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli army has released a statement giving an update about its continuing operation in the Gaza Strip, along with some pictures.
The army said it has conducted 4300 air strikes during its campaign against Hamas, targeting tunnel shafts and Hamas command and control centers, hitting “3,000 terrorist infrastructure sites”, according to the statement.
****
In large part due to Hamas using hospitals as human shields and in particular the Shifa hospital, the media mouth pieces have upped their claims over death and destruction at Gaza hospitals. In part, Hamas counted on the historical reluctance of Israel to go after them when they hid in such facilities. That assumption has turned out to be deadly for Hamas this time around.
RELATED - The European Union on Sunday condemned Hamas for using “hospitals and civilians as human shields” in Gaza, while also urging Israel to show “maximum restraint” to protect civilians.
***
Hamas has also reportedly chased Gazans away from trucks carrying food and other relief supplies - taking them for themselves. These actions have been recorded on video and placed on social media sites.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Link below to one of the general maps showing the extent of the operation in Gaza
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-qyXikWUAA8yuR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Fighting continues to be intense around the Shifa hospital. IDF delivered some gasoline to the hospital overnight, but Hamas reportedly either stole or otherwise prevented the hospital from receiving it. Israel has also offered to evacuate those in critical care - an offer once again rejected by Hamas. Gaza’s Hamas-run (ie propaganda mouthpiece) health ministry says more than 2,000 people are inside Al-Shifa, including patients, medical staff and displaced people
***
IDF continued search and clearing operations in other portions of N Gaza, reportedly flushing out, fixing and killing pockets of Hamas terrorists, as well as locating arms caches and tunnel entrances. Overnight, Israel claimed to have captured the Port of Gaza.
***
Hamas et al still managed to shoot some rockets at Israel, but recently, they’ve tuned to trying to target Israeli forces within Gaza. these attacks are generally ineffective and have hit their own positions instead.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari: “The IDF has operational plans to change the security situation in the north. The security situation will not remain in a way where residents of the north will not feel safe to return to their homes.” Dropped leaflets warn Lebanese to stay away from Hezbollah sites immediately.
Per N12, the IDF is preparing to launch extensive strikes on Hezbollah in response to recent attacks. Strikes are expected to be significant so steps are underway to prepare for the possibility of rocket fire from Lebanon towards north and central Israel. Already, Israeli warplanes attacked a truck in Zahrani, in the south of Lebanon, 40 kilometers from the border, breaking all “red lines” in Lebanon.
Overall, the IDF estimates that war in the north is inevitable.
Israeli warnings come after Hezbollah / Hamas forces significantly increased their attacks in N Israel. In response, the IDF struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon
— Rockets were fired from Lebanon at northern Israel, with some intercepted by the Iron Dome
— Border skirmishes have resulted in civilian and military casualties on both sides
The IDF admitted to over 20 casualties, one of the worst days since the war began
Israel also warned Hezbollah of an imminent attack in response to today’s casualties, with an Israeli military analyst saying that a war with Hezbollah is ‘inevitable’
Hezbollah launched an anti-tank missile attack from Lebanon, injuring at least 14 civilians and seven soldiers near Menara
The missile hit vehicles near Dovev, with some victims being Israel Electric Corporation employees. Hezbollah claiming it targeted soldiers installing surveillance equipment
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Resistance strikes on US positions in E Syria - see below.
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli raids to arrest Hamas and other terror elements continue.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Overnight, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (a front for Iran-backed militias) claimed it carried out an attack against the Green Village, a US outpost in eastern Syria. Iranian militia also attacked U.S. Conico base with advanced Grad missiles. Unconfirmed reports of 4 US dead.
Senior U.S. defense official - 6-7 Iranian proxy fighters were killed at one of the 2 locations struck by U.S. warplanes in E Syria tonight. IRGC HQ/safe house. 2 hours of secondary explosions seen at second location suggesting large weapons and ammo storage
“Today, in response to continued provocations by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their affiliated groups in Iraq and Syria, U.S. Central Command (USCENTOM) conducted air strikes against facilities near the cities of Abu Kamal and Mayadin,” said General Michael Erik Kurilla, USCENTCOM Commander.
U.S. airstrikes have targeted one of the largest Iranian militia headquarters in Al-Siyal town in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, resulting in casualties and injuries among the militia forces stationed at the military base.
***
Not a lot of word from the Houthi’s overnight.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The pro-Hamas protests in London over the weekend were among the largest ever.
In France, very large pro-Israeli marches.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on the Al-Shifa and Qods hospitals as IDF continues to close in and prepares to seize them. IDF is facilitating evacuations from those hospitals by opening safe routes, while Hamas continues to try to keep patents and refugees in place. This will be THE defining battle of the war and won’t be resolved in a quick or clean manner.
The situation in the north is deteriorating and escalating. Israel is warning Lebanese in the border regions to get away from Hezbollah munitions storage sites, rocket launching sites, personnel facilities, etc. Mossad has for years now been cultivating intelligence sources within southern Lebanon to identify these mostly underground bunkers with rockets and other munitions with the help of locals who are disaffected with Hezbollah’s actions. Israel has maintained the bulk of their ground and air forces in a posture ready to strike Hezbollah should the need arise.
Action in eastern Syria / western Iraq is heating up quickly. “Resistance” forces have significantly upped their attacks while the US has very gradually upped its response as well. Failure to strike at these Iranian backed militias with any significant, overwhelming power is encouraging more and more attacks. Now it appears that they may have drawn US blood. Granted, targeting these militias is a challenge as they operate in a dispersed manner, we have a ton of assets in the region that can be used to overcome that advantage. Escalation in this aspect of the war may end up drawing Iran directly into the mix sooner than later.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Oh swell, the devil’s post. . . ..
I suspect I'm not the only one who fails to see a problem here.
Indeed, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show the cost of traditional holiday-food items, such as treats and turkey dinners, is already much higher than it was a year ago:
Cookies up 6.6%
Sugar and sugar substitutes up 7.7%
Candy and chewing gum up 7.5%
Poultry, such as turkey up 6.7%
Sauces and gravies up 6.7%
Bread up 6.1%
Crackers, bread, and cracker products up 6.9%
Biden is soooooo proud of Bidenomics.... what a fool.
Globalism / Great Reset –
lazmataz has a thought provoking post here -
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/4196358/posts
A couple key excerpts
“The Social Credit Score system is fundamentally oppressive, especially when wielded by a government. When a government implements this sort of system, any deviation from any official government narrative results in a lower score and is a form of punishment. A person with a low Social Credit Score can be (and is) denied essential services and products.”
“How can this oppressive constraint on thought, speech, and action be enforced? George Orwell, author of the dystopian novel 1984, envisioned a world with cameras virtually everywhere. One never knew whether they were being watched or not and had to assume that they were being watched. Yet, even in Orwell’s novel, there was not enough manpower to oversee all people at all times.
Enter Artificial Intelligence. I foresee a day in which every person is assigned a slice of the processor time in a series of AI Oversight and Monitoring programs, and who’s every action and utterance is closely monitored. The emergence of Natural Language Processor programming informs us that such an ability is very near, and nearly every government – even the formerly-free Constitutional Republic of America – would be keen to implement such a framework. This would allow governments to closely monitor any forms of resistance and squash any attempts to deviate from official government wishes.”
OBSERVATION - The advent of AI has greatly accelerated the capabilities of the globalists to eventually establish controls via digital ID and currency. China is already implementing such a system. One additional aspect I would add is the advent of quantum computing - a simple raw power in the speed at which computers can run. Combined with AI, the potential for trouble increases substantially.
***
In an attempt to address the escalating incidents of hate crimes and harassment, New York Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul has announced an intensification of surveillance efforts on Americans targeting hate speech on social media.
A questionable aspect of this initiative is the focus on monitoring social media platforms for hate speech. The Governor emphasized the increased efforts of the media analysis and social media analysis units in detecting incitements to violence and direct threats.
Throughout history, several communist regimes have employed extensive surveillance systems. Notable examples include the Stasi in East Germany and the KGB in the Soviet Union. These organizations were infamous for their widespread networks of informants and advanced surveillance techniques, which they used to monitor virtually every aspect of citizens’ lives. Now, the Democrat Party is the modern Stasi and KGB.
OBSERVATION - What this also brings up is the amorphous definition of “hate speech”.
We’ve already seen how that phrase is used to censor / silence those on the right. Now will anyone who speaks ill of the NY gov be accused of “hate” and receive a visit from the state police? The answer is yes, most likely. This kind of action goes hand in hand with the constant efforts to keep ‘misinformation’ off the interwebs. As we’ve seen from the plandemic, truth was commonly designated ‘misinformation’ and those voices were silenced and efforts taken to discredit them and remove their employment. Now we see that they were right all along and the true purveyors of misinformation was the various mouthpieces of government.
Under the new global order / dictatorship, such censoring and surveillance will increase astronomically as a vehicle to control the masses.
Economy –
(FO) Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, predicts that the U.S. economy will be in a recession by the second quarter of 2024, and rising rates and deficits will further hurt the economy.
“We have a lot of major indicators that have been in recessionary signaling for a year-plus,” Gundlach said.
OBSERVATION - More focus (refocus) on 2024 recession. Such would be a big player in the 2024 elections.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Antifa et al managed to rally some violent protests at the underconstruction police facility and training site in Atlanta. The “Stop Cop City” protestors attempted to force their way onto the construction site. Police responded with flash bangs, and pepper spray.
***
Today is the The “March for Israel,” backed by the Jewish Federations of North America. The “March for Israel,” is backed by the Jewish Federations of North America, has requested a permit for up to 60,000 attendees, but some groups expect 100,000 to show up.
D.C. National Guard is mobilizing in support of police as the city braces for disruption between pro-Israel and pro-Hamas factions. Additionally, there will be “heightened security and an increased police presence” at the Capitol complex according to a House Sergeant-at-arms.
OBSERVATION - Will Antifa et al with pro-Hamas show up today? Likely, but what isn’t certain is the size of the turnout. This is believed to be the largest planed pro-Israel march since Oct 7th. It is hard to believe anti-Israel groups will not try to disrupt it.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Lone wolf attacks on Jewish related targets is the primary concern. Assassination attempts on politicians - particularly those on the right is an increasing concern as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Eisenhower CSG has officially reached the Gulf of Oman. With it is reported to be an Italian Frigate. Also reported, U.S. Navy Task Force 52 Minesweepers, and Royal Navy Operation Kipion minesweepers are associated with the Ike. This array of minesweepers is to address one of the major responses that Iran may take against the west should it get in a direct shooting war with Israel or the US - mining the Straits of Hormuz. These preparations suggest that readiness for a much larger conflict are being put into place.
POLITICAL FRONT –
More discussions on another CR for the FY 2024 budget. What is bothering is that Chucky Schumer is happy about Speaker Johnson’s plan.
Biden / Harris Watch –
There are rumors that biden will unfreeze another $10 billion to Iran on top of the $100 billion they already released.
Illegal Immigration –
Eight Republicans joined with Democrats on Monday to block articles of impeachment filed from advancing against Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. The resolution, which was introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, was referred back to the House Homeland Security Committee, effectively stalling out the effort.
A dozen other Republicans didn’t vote at all. Including three republicans from Texas!
OBSERVATION - The republicans in congress are mostly worthless. If anyone, besides biden, deserved to be impeaches, it is Mayorkas. They’ve aided and abetted the eventual illegal overthrow of this country.
***
Media reports that some illegals have become disenchanted with the so called opportunities here in the US that they are voluntarily retiring to their county of origin. Sadly this is just a small portion of the over 8 million that have flooded into the country since the biden regime opened the southern doors.
Also great horror from the left over Trump comments indicating that he was in favor of large internment camps and massive deportations.
China –
Foreign businesses have been pulling money out of China at a faster rate than they have been putting it in, official data shows. The country’s slowing economy, low interest rates and a geopolitical tussle with the US have sparked doubt about its economic potential.
China recorded a deficit of $11.8bn (£9.6bn) in foreign investment in the three months to the end of September - the first time since records began in 1998. This suggests that foreign companies are not reinvesting their profits in China, rather they are moving the money out of the country.
OBSERVATION - China is a dedicated communist country that has dabbled at trying to tap capitalism to bolster its economy as one facet of its effort to exert power on the global stage. Its current economic woes have accomplished that in a way - creating tremors across global economies as China struggles to come out of its wuhan woes.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with rain throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 7 of 9 Shahed drones overnight.
Targets were mostly in eastern and southern Ukraine with one reported shot down in western Ukraine.
Russia continued its attacks to seize Avdiivka with no reported successes. Russia also launched attacks to regain lost ground south of Bakhmut.
Outlook —-
Both sides in essentially an operational pause. Russia desiring to get an offensive underway in the eastern front area as well as resume operations to capture Adviivka.
I expect no significant ground action by either side for the near future.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF has virtually sealed off the area around the Shifa Hospital
- Fierce fighting reported in more central areas of Gaza City
- Unconfirmed reports that a hostage exchange is being negotiated for 80 hostages - women. One woman hostage reported dead.
- Hamas demands any hostage release to be linked to a 5 day ceasefire
GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli Army has captured the Rantisi Children’s Hospital in Gaza & found Hamas tunnels below the hospital. They found areas down there in which there were baby cups, ropes, improved toilets and other evidence of hostages having been held. Notably, the access shaft was 20 meters deep.
IDF has also issued videos showing Hamas fighters entering another hospital, one of which was carrying an RPG-7.
***
Israel and the Hamas terror group are allegedly close to closing a deal to free some of the civilians held by the Hamas terror group, alongside female and minor convicted terrorists, according to a report by David Ignatius on the Washington Post.
The Post article follows a Saturday report by Al Arabiya that Israel and Hamas have agreed to a “humanitarian” prisoner swap under which Hamas would release 100 Israeli hostages, in exchange for Israel releasing female and minor terrorists.
In addition to the release of convicted terrorists, the deal would see Israel agree to a temporary ceasefire, possibly five days long, allegedly to allow “safe travel” for the Israeli hostages and allow additional aid to reach Gazans.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF forces have pushed into the governmental sector of Gaza City and photographed in the legislative chambers.
IDF continues to press from the south, west and north into Gaza City, seizing more terrain and forcing Hamas forces into a smaller area.
Hamas mustered a rocket attack on central Israel.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued harassing attacks by Hezbollah and Hamas affiliated terror groups with Israeli artillery and airstrike replies. Seems that the increase in conflict over the past couple days has slowed.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Resistance strikes on US positions in E Syria - see below.
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli raids to arrest Hamas and other terror elements continue.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Last night Al-Omar oil field base east of Deir ez-Zur located west of the Euphrates River
was targeted by Iranian militias. At least 6 explosions are said to have been heard in the direction of the base.
The White House: If Iranian proxies continue to target U.S. forces, we will respond
NOTE - Islamic terrorists don’t respond to talk, but to power. US has only launched two retaliatory air strikes versus the 50 ish attacks by these jihad groups.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The pro-Hamas protests from the weekend have wound down. The British govt has taken a turn for the worse in some measures by approvingly showing support for the pro-hamas elements to the disrespect of britain’s who were offended by the moslem acts and memorial vandalism.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on the Al-Shifa and Qods hospitals as IDF continues to close in and prepares to seize them. IDF is facilitating evacuations from those hospitals by opening safe routes, while Hamas continues to try to keep patents and refugees in place. This will be THE defining battle of the war and won’t be resolved in a quick or clean manner.
Israel has provided substantial proof that Hamas is using facilities like hospitals to cover/protect underground command and munition centers. The fierceness of the defense of the Shifa Hospital and the corresponding shrieking of the propaganda media over how conditions there are degrading - endangering patents is further evidence that it overlies a major, if not THE major underground center in N Gaza.
A limited hostage exchange / ceasefire is not in the best interests of the current military operation and political goals of eliminating Hamas. The fact that Hamas has allegedly increased the proposed numbers of hostages to be exchanged is evidence that they are against the ropes and their level of desperation increasing. Reports for the battle lines indicate that Hamas has virtually lost all ability to conduct a coordinated defense with commands and units being cut off and decimated. Five day cease fire would give them enough time to regroup and reorganize their defenses.
I respect the increased desires to free the hostages, but to fail to eliminate Hamas will only guarantee that future terror and hostage taking will continue through another generation. Looking at the source - The WaPo, it is likely that they are relaying propaganda as last look indicates that Israel officially still isn’t accepting by an means any ceasefire that doesn’t result in the release of all hostages.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Misc of Note –
A large series of fissures / cracks have opened up in the ground along a SW-NE line that also cuts through the northwest corner of Grindavík, Iceland. The link below depicts the approximate location of the dike being created by the intrusive mass of magma. The Icelandic meteorological office estimates that currently the magma is 800m from breaking ground, and as a result the likelihood of an eruption is “high” and could happen in the coming days.
Quakes and inflation have repeatedly slowed for the moment, but an eruption is still anticipated.
Again, why is this important other than to keep the fancy of this old grumpy geologist happy? There is still the potential of an explosive ash cloud that could shut down air traffic in the N Atlantic / Great Britain region. In April 2010, the Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruption, caused the largest closure of European airspace since World War II, as a result of an extensive ash cloud, with losses estimated at between 1.5bn and 2.5bn euros (£1.3-2.2bn).
The circumstances of this volcanic activity are very different and therefore such an extensive impact is not expected. But it still warrants monitoring.
Black Swans
