Ok, who had Spanish civil war in November on their Bingo card?
News literally exploded on my feeds overnight - see CW2 and Spain for details. With all heck breaking loose in the world, now potential civil war .
Today Veteran’s Day is observed though tomorrow is the actual Holiday. I thank my fellow veterans for their service and dedication to our country.
Globalism / Great Reset –
It appears that “AI bots” are now posting false comments on climate change related articles online. In an article about glaciers in Chile, there are several pro-climate alarm comments that have a suspicious similarity. Expansion of AI bot propaganda will have a very dangerous end - obfuscating truth from misinformation.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
American Jews and supporters of Israel will descend on the National Mall on Tuesday, November 14, for a massive “March for Israel” to show solidarity with the Jewish state in its war against terror, and to stand up against rising antisemitism at home.
The march, which is drawing participants from all over the country, is being organized by the Jewish Federations of North America and the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. Many local communities are sending buses.
Participants will be demanding the return of the estimated 240 hostages Hamas terrorists abducted during its October 7 onslaught on Israel, Fingerhut said. They will also be calling for efforts to combat antisemitism, which has spiked worldwide since the attack. And they will be demonstrating their support for the unabashed backing Israel has so far received from both parties in Congress and the Biden administration.
A similar march in 2002 supported Israel in the midst of the second intifada, and one in 1987 supported Soviet Jews in their effort to leave the USSR for Israel, the U.S., and elsewhere.
The march will take place on the National Mall from 1:00 to 3:00 p.m. on November 14. Gates are expected to open at 10:00 a.m. It is unclear whether there will be counter-demonstrations.
OBSERVATION - Without a doubt, the pro-Hamas, antifa embedded, left will be deploying to oppose this gathering and to inflict as much damage and chaos as possible. The potential for ugly confrontations is high.
****
Kinda putting the cart before the horse here, but that is due to the outline I use. Events in Spain could potentially play out here in the US should a high level political figure get targeted - such as a Trump, or Gaetz, etc. Violence literally exploded overnight and the country is on the precipice of a civil war, with marxist/socalists on one side and nationalists on the other. Much like the first Spanish civil war.
***
It appears that “AI bots” are now posting false comments on climate change related articles online. In an article about glaciers in Chile, there are several pro-climate alarm comments that have a suspicious similarity. Protesters then started to march and made their way to the NY Times building with some of them getting inside the lobby and held chants demanding a ceasefire.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Unknown assailant fires a gun at 2 Jewish facilities - Yeshiva Gedolah and Talmud Torah Elementary School - in Montreal, Canada
Happening in Canada, can easily happen here as well.
.
***
Pierce County Elections confirmed that this is the letter it received yesterday that prompted the emergency response.
It had a white powdery substance on it and the building was evacuated
Letter has Antifa, trans, and satanic emblems on it.
***
Follow-up.. Authorities have identified the armed man apprehended near the United States Capitol in Washington, DC on Tuesday as Ahmir Lavon Merrell of Georgia. The 21-year-old black Atlanta native was tased and arrested by US Capitol Police in a park just blocks from the house of government after refusing to drop his firearm.
According to the USCP, “it is not yet clear what Merrell was doing in Washington, DC.” He has been charged with felon in possession of a firearm, unregistered ammunition, unregistered firearm, fugitive from justice, and unlawful activities.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
An international campaign — funded in large part by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation — to inject tens of millions of young girls with the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is drawing fire from critics who allege the vaccine will cause far more harm than good.
Claiming the initiative will avert “over 1.4 million future deaths,” Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance announced it is investing more than $600 million to reach its goal of vaccinating 86 million girls in low- and middle-income countries by 2025.
The Gates Foundation co-founded Gavi and is one of its four permanent board members. UNICEF, the World Bank and the World Health Organization (WHO) — whose second-largest donor is Gates — hold the other permanent seats.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/gates-gavi-invest-vaccinate-african-girls-hpv/
OBSERVATION - Anything Gates is associated with should be avoided like the plague.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Jill Stein announced that she is entering the 2024 presidential race as a Green Party candidate - Washington Post
OBSERVATION - The democrats will use every dirty trick in the book to keep the greens off the ballots. With leftist dissatisfaction with biden over support to Israel, this would syphon a lot of votes away from him.
Joe Manchin’s announced that he will not seek reelection. initial analyst of the move strongly suggests a republican pick-up. What his status will be in Nov 2024 is unknown at this time.
***
Congress recessed and when it returns will only have 8 days to address the federal budget or face a govt shutdown.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 of 6 Shahed drones, 1 Kh-31 and 1 Kh-59 missile overnight.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is attempting to restart an offensive on Kupyansk that failed 3 months ago. These reports state that Russia is now actively deploying units there.
Kherson Axis -
Reports that Ukraine is shuttling armor and other materials across the Dniper River unopposed and growing the bridgehead breakout.
Crimean front —
Ukrainian Military intelligence claims destruction of 2 Russian speedboats in Chornomorske town in occupied Crimea
Partisan Resistance ——
A vehicle belonging to occupational police was blown up in Mariupol
OUTLOOK - Continued status quo along all fronts. The most significant of current battles/operations are those to improve their local tactical situation versus larger offensive actions.
Europe / NATO General –
SPANISH Civil Unrest/War -
Background - This past July, Spain held its parliamentary elections with the results being that no single party won enough parliamentary seats to form a government. The center-right Partido Popular (PP) is set to come in first, winning 136 seats. The upstart far-right Vox party, a possible coalition partner to PP, is forecast to win 33 seats.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s ruling center-left Socialist party meanwhile is on course to win 122 seats, with likely coalition partners Sumar at 31 seats. In order to govern, a party or coalition must achieve a working majority of 176 seats in the 350-seat legislature. The results showed the center-right increasing its support to 33% up from 21%.
Thus began a prolonged effort by both sides to sway the support of smaller regionalist parties in order to gain the working majority. The deadline is the end of November, if neither group has success, new elections will be held.
Current - Earlier this week, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez gov’s made an agreement to issue an amnesty to the separatist leaders behind the illegal 2017 Catalan independence referendum. This in exchange for its key backing of acting Sánchez in forming a new government. Opposition parties declared the action a “coup”. The move angered many traditional socialist voters as well. A poll in mid-September showed 70% of Spaniards opposed an amnesty, and about 200,000 people have taken part in three large, recent rallies against the measure, organized by the PP and Vox.
The legality of such amnesty was immediately challenged. The Permanent Commission of the Spanish General Council of the Judiciary has just pronounced against Sánchez’s amnesty. Their vote in favor of the statement included 2 judges appointed by the socialist ruling party: Roser Bach and Mar Cabrejas. They stated that the amnesty would tear apart the constitution of the country.
Matters went from bad to volcanic overnight when Alejo Vidal-Quadras, the founder of Vox (3rd largest party, anti-immigration, pro-family) was shot in the face. He is in stable condition, while his assailant escaped on a motorcycle and has yet to be found.
President of Vox called for mass mobilization in the streets of Madrid amid socialist takeover of the Spanish government
“Now is not the moment for parties. Now is the moment to defend the nation”
Tens (hundreds?) of thousands poured into the streets of Madrid in answer to the call. Fighting with police broke out as the crowds converged on the socialist party headquarters.
Adding fuel to this fire is broad dislike of the massive number of moslems from N Africa that have poured into the country in recent years under the socialist rule. Chants of ‘Spain is Christian, not Muslim!’ were heard on the streets of Madrid with the anti-socialist protests.
OBSERVATION - Passions are very high over these events, and could continue to escalate into full blown civil war between the socialists and nationalist. One wild card is the presence of a substantial population of N African moslems that will most likely side with the socialists - to protect themselves from being deported. This could make things very ugly indeed.
A scenario like this in the US could be looming, another stolen election, an attempt on the life of Trump, pro-Hamas riots, illegal immigrant riots, etc are all pushing higher and higher on the threat meter. No doubt that an attempt - successful or not - on Trump will light a fire that won’t be quenched and grant the regime the excuse it needs to declare martial law prior to the election, perhaps as a way to stop the election and retain power; an act that would only serve to inflame matters worse.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel demands accountability from major news networks over employed “journalists” participation in the Oct 7 terror attacks.
- IDF continues to close in on hospitals believed to have Hamas command bunkers located beneath them.
- biden claims Israel accepted a call for a 4 hour daily pause in fighting. Israel denied the claim.
GENERAL ——————————-
US claims Israel has agreed to 4-hour pauses in fighting for humanitarian relief efforts. Israel has denied the claim. Claim is denied by Israel.
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration is demanding answers from several prominent news agencies after criticism emerged of their photographers appearing to have been embedded with Hamas terrorists during the October 7 attack.
In a statement, the National Public Diplomacy Directorate of the Prime Ministers’s Office demanded action by news agencies:
The National Public Diplomacy Directorate in the Prime Minister’s Office views with utmost gravity that photojournalists working with international media joined in covering the brutal acts of murder perpetrated by Hamas terrorists on Saturday October 7th in the communities adjacent to the Gaza Strip.
These journalists were accomplices in crimes against humanity; their actions were contrary to professional ethics.
Overnight the Government Press Office issued an urgent letter to the bureau chiefs of the media organizations that employed these photographers and sought clarifications on the matter.
The National Public Diplomacy Directorate demands that immediate action be taken.
Israel’s Government Press Office (GPO), which regulates press access in Israel, also issued a statement demanding explanations:
GPO Director Nitzan Chen demands explanations from the bureau chiefs of AP, Reuters, CNN and The New York Times regarding the disturbing findings in the Honest Reporting report on the involvement of their photographers in the events of October 7th, which crosses every red line, professional and moral.
Four photographers who work for these networks documented the horrors perpetrated by the Hamas terrorists after they broke through border fence with Israel. They filmed the murder of civilians, the abuse of bodies and the abduction of men and women.
RELATED - AP, and CNN have cut ties to Gaza-based freelance photojournalist Hassan Eslaiah. He was photographed with a hand grenade in his hand, riding on a motorcycle used by the Hamas terrorists.
CNN spokesperson told DailyMail.com: ‘We had no prior knowledge of the October 7th attacks. Hassan Eslaiah, who was a freelance journalist working for us and many other outlets, was not working for the network on October 7th. As of today, we have severed all ties with him.’
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Multiple interceptions reported over central Israel. First rocket fire on Tel Aviv since Tuesday night
According to reports from Gaza: the encirclement of Shifa’ hospital has been completed. There is an exchange of fire on the outskirts of the hospital between Israeli army forces and Hamas militants. Questions remain just how close Israel is to the hospital. Reports have IDF forces between 400 and 2000 meters away. IDF has also taken control over night of several other, smaller hospitals and are preceding to evacuate the patients and medical staff.
Israeli army says overnight ground forces killed a number of members of Hamas’s elite Nukhba forces, who participated in the October 7 massacre. Among them was Ahmed Musa, a Nukhba company commander, and Amr Alhandi, a platoon commander, who were holed up in Jabaliya
IDF says the 162nd Division is operating in Hamas’s “security quarter” of Gaza City, clashing frequently with terror operatives. According to the IDF, the so-called security quarter, adjacent to Shifa Hospital, is “the heart” of Hamas’s intelligence and operational activities, and sites in the area were used to plan and prepare the October 7 onslaught.
It says that in recent days forces of the Givati Infantry Brigade and tanks entered the quarter to destroy Hamas infrastructure. Amid clashes in the area, more than 50 Hamas operatives were killed, the IDF says.
The IDF says troops found intelligence materials, tunnels, weapons manufacturing plants, and anti-tank missile launch positions.
The quarter houses “strategic” Hamas sites, according to the IDF, including the terror group’s intelligence and air defense headquarters, political bureau offices, and a police station.
The IDF says the largest Hamas training camp is also in the quarter, along with other military positions, weapons manufacturing plants and warehouses, command centers, offices of Hamas commanders, and underground infrastructure.
Thousands of Gazans continue to move south along designated evacuation routes.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued tit - for - tat with Israel gradually expanding the target list in southern Lebanon to include more Hezbollah munitions facilities.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army says it carried out bombing in Syria in response to a drone attack on Eilat on Thursday
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli forces raided the Palestinian city of Jenin on Thursday and fought an hours-long battle with gunmen in which 14 people were killed, one of the heaviest clashes in the occupied West Bank in months
Armed clashes broke out after an Israeli storming of Balata camp, east of Nablus
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” (new add) ———————————
An unknown attack drone has reportedly struck the City of Eilat in southeastern Israel on the Red Sea causing a large explosion; another blast was also reported at a school in Eilat.
East Syria: US airstrike in outskirts of Deir ez-Zur Airbase killed last night at least one Assad’s soldier. This is a first since 2019. He was from E. Homs province
US defense official now tells VOA there have been FORTY-SIX attacks on US forces in Iraq & Syria since 10/17. 4 of these happened AFTER the US strike overnight on IRGC weapons storage facility. 3 Americans were injured during the attack today at MSS Green Village
A significant attack was launched overnight on U.S. Forces at Al-Asad Airbase in Western Iraq by Iranian-Backed Militias, with at least 3 waves of rockets and drones said to have struck in and around the base. Damage to base facilities and casualties are currently unknown.
A missile interception overnight over Eilat was with an Arrow 3, for the first time. Previous interceptions used the Arrow 2
Confirmation of another missile intercepted by the IDF launched from Yemen towards southern Israel. The Arrow Air Defense System was used again. Reports of drones also intercepted by IDF/others over the Red Sea today. Houthi militants claiming attacks.
Israeli army says it intercepted a “suspicious target” in the Arabah region in southern Israel using the Patriot air defense system. The target did not enter Israeli airspace, according to the Israeli army
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
President Erdoğan on Riyadh Summit: The decisions that will come out of this summit, where the countries of the region and the Islamic world are represented, will be a big step to stop Israel’s oppression.”
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel will continue its attacks in N Gaza to eliminate Hamas from that portion of land before turning south or turning to confront Hezbollah in a more substantial way if necessary. As it moves deeper into Gaza City, more substantial battles are expected. Israel has not effectively gained control of almost half of the northern Gaza operational area.
Houthi and the other ‘resistance’ forces increased their activities overnight. Houthi’s are managing to range their drones and missiles more effectively towards southern Israel while the Iranian backed militias have increased the number and intensity of attacks. Again, the currency is the show of strength and the US’ lack of response tells them the US is weak. This does not bode well for forces there.
So called peaceful protests around the world have not yielded the desired goal of swinging opinion away from Israel and onto its narrative. Acts of violence are increasing as it appears they can only get attention via that method of intimidation.
Apart from the pittance Hezbollah, the ‘resistance’ and Iran have offered, Hamas is essentially on its own.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Black Swans
What was already a strong El Niño event is getting stronger, and the odds of it reaching “historic” levels have increased for the winter, according to NOAA’s latest update on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, where El Niño thresholds are calculated, reached 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in the October measurement, keeping this event squarely in the “strong” category. Other areas farther east in the Pacific have reached 2.2 degrees Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.
OBSERVATION - Much crystal ball looking as El Nino’s can have a mind of their own. This could be bad news for the Pacific Northwest and northern plains with less moisture affecting hydropower production and winter/spring crops.
Thank you so much for this thread.
Your work is appreciated.
:-)
Happy Veterans day.
Our world is increasingly becoming a less stable environment, and the memory of the destructive WW1, reflected in Veterans Day, is lost to most of the world. Today, it is not Axis vs Allies - its islam vs civilization, with globalist overlords maneuvering behind the scenes to come to outcomes that favor the establishment of a global govt that puts them in charge.
Globalism / Great Reset –
President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, announces the launch of the EU’s central bank digital currency (CBDC)—the digital euro—which will enable unelected technocrats at the ECB to program how, when, where, on what and by whom it can be spent, including the imposition of social credit, carbon allowance and vaccine passport systems.
OBSERVATION - Great time to roll this out while everyones eyes are fixed on Ukraine and Gaza.
***
The executive order on “Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence”, signed by President Biden last week, sets out in detail how federal agencies are to use and regulate artificial intelligence (AI), including promoting global standards to moderate online content.
The new tools to silence and cancel conservatives are being created under the rubric of providing “safeguards” against discrimination, bias, and disinformation and promoting “rights-affirming” approaches in digital technologies.
OBSERVATION - Ive noted this before but deserves a repeat. Beta test of means to control global information for the globalists. We saw how biden used people interface to control “disinformation” over the past three years, now it will become orders of magnitude larger with use of AI.
Economy –
The outlook on the US credit rating was changed to negative from stable by Moody’s Investors Service, citing risks to the nation’s fiscal strength.
OBSERVATION - Others apparently don’t share the regime’s view that everything is awesome with our economy.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Massive pro-Hamas protests/riots broke out in NYC overnight. In one instance demonstrators attempted to kick down a door in at Grand Central trying to get at police sheltering inside. Jews in New York were told to “shelter in place.”
OBSERVATION - These ‘protests’ are building toward 2020 scale violence. As the focus of the Hamas crowd is against the city/state/fed govt, it is picking up support from Antifa/BLM elements as well as transtifa forces (though they really don’t seem to realize that Hamas would happily throw them off the roof of skyscrapers when their usefulness is finished). This level of violence is spreading globally - See under Israel violence in Australia and New Zealand as well as in England.
With today being Veterans / Armistice day - things could continue to grow more violent as they focus on disrupting those events as well.
Also - major cities have lost a lot of their police forces due to hostile marxist democrat administrations and “defund the police’ efforts. The pull of participants for these riots may well exceed police capabilities to keep them contained. This would put other areas - primarily richer neighborhoods - in danger of a crime spree as police resources are pulled out to deal with these riots.
Folk living in blue urban areas need to pay close attention to what is happening around them.
IN RELATED - The Jewish Federations of North America conducted a comprehensive poll revealing the sentiments and concerns within the American Jewish community following the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas terrorists on Israel.
The poll found that 70% of Jewish respondents felt less safe than a few months ago, with none reporting increased feelings of safety.
A significant number of Jews expressed apprehension that their communities could feasibly face security challenges due to the ongoing conflict. Accordingly, gun sales to Jews seem to be spiking since the hamas terror attack last month.
***
Interesting view on the current alliance of radical leftists and moslem, pro-Hamas forces. Currently the standard of “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” that has stoked a lot of the current protesting appears to be starting to unravel. Good read at links below.
https://pjmedia.com/christopherskeet/2023/11/10/grab-the-popcorn-islamists-versus-leftists-n4923792
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Lone wolf attacks on Jewish related targets is the primary concern. Assassination attempts on politicians - particularly those on the right is an increasing concern as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group entered the Gulf of Aden. The CSG transited the Bab el-Mandeb strait after covering the entire Red Sea from north to south in 5-6 days.
***
The B-21 Raider has taken its first flight yesterday. One feature that some seem to overlook is that this plane can operate unmanned - a big freeking nuclear capable drone.
***
The Space Force announced yesterday that X-37B Mission 7 is scheduled to launch from the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, on December 7, 2023. The spaceplane’s first mission on a Falcon Heavy rocket will be designated USSF-52 and it will be run by the Space Force together with the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office.
In a typically tersely worded statement, the Space Force said that X-37B Mission 7 will have “a wide range of test and experimentation objectives.” It continued: “These tests include operating the reusable spaceplane in new orbital regimes, experimenting with future space domain awareness technologies, and investigating the radiation effects on materials provided by NASA.”
OBSERVATION - Speculation that the term “new orbital regimes” may represent maneuvering further into orbits, perhaps as deep as the moon. The use of the Falcon Heavy also permits larger payloads.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Republican National Committee has warned some of the 2024 GOP presidential candidates about attending an Iowa Christian organization’s Thanksgiving forum, saying it would disqualify them from participating in future RNC presidential debates.
Five candidates – former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott – were invited to the Family Leader’s “Thanksgiving Family Forum” on November 17.
“It has come to the attention of the RNC Counsel’s Office that several Republican presidential candidates have been invited to participate in an open-press event in Iowa in November at which they would ‘gather around the table to have a moderated, friendly, and open discussion about the issues.’ In other words, a debate,” the RNC counsel’s office said in a letter obtained by CNN.
“Accordingly, please be advised that any Republican presidential candidate who participates in this or other similar events will be deemed to have violated this pledge and will be disqualified from taking part in any future RNC-sanctioned presidential primary debates,” the office said.
In its letter, dated October 28, the office reminded the candidates that they had agreed not to participate in any non-RNC-sanctioned debates during the campaign.
OBSERVATION - RNC unwisely trying to control the primaries and keep others from interacting with candidates. This follows the disastrous viewing of the third debate, where almost more people attended the Trump rally than watched the debate (sarc). The candidates who attend should assert their 1st Amendment rights over that of the ruling eGOP at the RNC.
***
Lots of other political chaos I don’t have time to get into - FR threads cover them pretty well.
Illegal Immigration –
Thousands of illegals marching towards the US were video’d chanting “biden, biden, biden” last week.
China –
(Daily Caller)—China is offloading its production abroad, flooding the world market with cheaper goods, as its domestic economy struggles with its own citizens having less discretionary income for purchases, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The price of exports from China has dropped around 20% this year, partially reflecting the need of Chinese sellers to discount their products to offload excess inventory, expanding their market share abroad and hurting countries’ domestic industries that have to compete with the discounted goods, according to the WSJ. The Chinese economy has recently faced a number of concerning indicators, including disappointing economic growth, falling consumer spending, possible deflation and decreasing producer prices, according to the Financial Times.
China’s real estate industry, which accounts for a large amount of its growth, is also in crisis, with the country’s top developers facing the possibility of defaulting on huge debts to both foreign and domestic bondholders. Since the beginning of the debt crisis in the real estate market in 2021, companies that are responsible for 40% of Chinese home sales have defaulted.
OBSERVATION - The immensity of China’s export market significantly affects the global economy. It historically has attacked other markets by undercutting prices and creating reliance on it as source of critical items - a situation that was clearly illustrated during the wuhan plandemic. If its economy goes further down the tubes, it could drag the rest of the world into a recession as a result.
***
China’s Xi is coming to the U.S. on November 14-17th. Meets with Biden in San Fran and suddenly the streets of SF are clean and free of homeless and druggies.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
The President of Kazakhstan pulled what appears to be a power move by starting his speech to Vladimir Putin and the Russian delegation by speaking Kazakh instead of Russian.
This is extremely abnormal and offensive to the Russian government. Many of those on hand were shocked.
Many of those in the Russian government feel similar about Kazakhstan as they do about Ukraine.
NOTE - This is huge and a major put down of putin.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia continues to pull up the guard rail treaties on nuclear weapons. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed an order on Thursday that eliminated his country’s agreement with Japan that aimed to reduce and contain nuclear stockpiles.
That agreement between Moscow and Tokyo came together in 1993 after North Korea stated that it would no longer negotiate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 40’s- 50’s with scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Kyiv was targeted by Russian missiles for the first time in months. Ukrainian air defense shot down ballistic missile near Kyiv. Overall, Ukrainian air defense shot down 19 of 31 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Explosions were heard in Zaporizhzhia and Odesa as well.
Russian forces have resumed efforts to surround and capture Avdiivka. However it appears muddy soil conditions are limiting their use of armor, and the attacks seem mostly by leg infantry.
Outlook —-
More of the same. Rumored Russian offensive actions will likely be very limited because they can’t get support from their remaining armor/tanks due to the onset of the mud season. This is reflect in the continued high personnel losses being reported, but with fewer tanks/apc’s being destroyed - indication more leg infantry “meat” attacks.
Appears that Russia is beginning to ramp up its winter missile/drone campaign targeting Ukraine power grid.
Europe / NATO General –
Tensions are high in London ahead of Remembrance Day/Veterans Day on Nov. 11 because of the “Million Man March” being organized by groups with links to Hamas. They’ve refused to cancel the direct action and have announced they will bus people in & target the US embassy in London. Meanwhile, Antifa have put out a call for their members to come as well.
Today, British police attempted to stop patriotic citizens from going to the Cenotaph. They pushed through the police lines anyway. World War I soldiers will be remembered in Britain on Saturday and there are fears that the pro-Hamas demonstration planned that day will desecrate memorials and the honor of the fallen.
UPDATE
Now reports that British hooligans and right-wing groups are descending on London today to crack down on pro-Hamas protesters.
****
SPANISH Civil Unrest/War -
Situation remains tense across the country. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz & Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez have been trapped in a building in Malaga by a large crowd of anti-separatist protesters spearheaded by opposition groups. The German Chancellor’s security detail is trying to figure out a way to get him out of the building
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The noose around Al-Shifa and Al-Quds hospitals grows tighter
- More global calls for an unconditional ceasefire by Israel, soundly rejected by Israel.
- Arab conference meeting on ways to stop the Gaza war.
GENERAL ——————————-
Another speech by Hezbollah is expected today. A teaser video message was released:
“On the occasion of Hezbollah Martyr’s Day, a gift from His Eminence the Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, to all the families of the martyrs, and a message to them in his handwriting: “You should be proud of your martyrs in this world and rejoice in them in the afterlife because they are your relics and intercessors with God.”
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News reports that Israel is preparing for possible Fentanyl-filled rockets from Hamas, Hezbollah.
NOTE - The possibility is real. Fentanyl based terror has been a concern here in the US for quite a while as a very, very little bit can kill and the drug is easily absorbed through the skin - making it a bane to first responders. The question is do they have the warhead/delivery capability to get it to targets and how much would be released from an Iron Dome interception. Even an attempt would be very nasty and create a serious level of fear. OTOH, that would qualify as an NBC attack and especially Hezbollah would quickly be in the receiving end of a massive retaliation by Israel, and Iran may catch some of the retaliation as well.
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An analysis of the Israel-Hamas war by leading strategic expert Ayelet Frish at the link below - gives great insight to the Israeli psyche on the current war.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-772649
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Health sources in Gaza claiming Al-Shifa and Al-Quds hospitals are out of service due to running out of fuel.
NOTE - these same sources claimed that these hospitals ran out of fuel over three weeks ago.
Four hospitals in Gaza are now surrounded by the IDF based on precise data and intelligence that Hamas leaders are hiding inside alongside massive piles of weapons and bombs.
Gazan civilians are exiting the hospital with white flags (very significant) and are being brought to safety as the IDF advances toward the hospitals. Hamas forces have been firing at them to try to prevent them from leaving (and thus losing their human shields).
Sources in the Arab media report the cooperation of thousands of Gazans with the IDF in handing over locations of Hamas forces, locations of tunnels and IDF warehouses and launch sites. The cooperation began after the IDF distributed leaflets calling for the provision of information about the location of the Israeli abductees while promising financial compensation and safety for informants. The sources report that, most of the information transmitters do not demand money but safe passage for them and their families.
Tens of thousands continue to move southward along designated routes in spite of Hamas efforts to force them to remain in place.
Heavy clashes and IAF strikes reported outside Shifa Hospital as Israeli army forces move further into Gaza City. It is still unclear just how close to the hospital IDF forces have penetrated. Unconfirmed reports that Israeli snipers have the facility surrounded. Artillery/Air strikes continue to form a ring of fire around the facility.
IDF says troops have captured key Hamas outposts in Gaza City today, killing some 150 terror operatives in the process. The military says that in recent days, its 401st Brigade led an assault on the so-called Bader outpost — the main outpost of Hamas’s Al-Shati Refugee Camp Battalion — located adjacent to civilian homes near the refugee camp. It says that during the raid on the Bader post, troops destroyed military headquarters and rocket launching sites
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued tit - for - tat with Israel gradually expanding the target list in southern Lebanon to include more Hezbollah munitions facilities.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Monitoring for another speech by Hezbollah is expected today. Current assessment is that it will be another nothing burger, but one never knows.
WEST BANK——————————-
Hamas- Our operations against the Israeli army in the West Bank are continuing.
Israeli raids to arrest Hamas other terror elements continue.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Continued attacks on US bases in eastern Syria/western Iraq. Houthi continue launching drones and ballistic missiles towards southern Israel.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
President Erdoğan on Riyadh Summit: The decisions that will come out of this summit, where the countries of the region and the Islamic world are represented, will be a big step to stop Israel’s oppression.”
Hamas is calling for Arab-Islamic action to stop the Israeli aggression and save Gaza’s hospitals. Emir of Qatar (Hamas ally) How long will Israel be allowed to violate international laws with its brutal and endless war on the country’s indigenous people
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Pro-Hamas supporters travelled an hour from Melbourne’s north to the Jewish community in Caulfield only to break through a police line and violently attack local Jews. Reports included pro-Hamas protesters attempting to run down locals in the Melbourne Jewish community. Jewish residents reportedly assembling to defend against future attacks.
In New Zealand, leftists attempted to disrupt and attack a pro-Israeli rally. That was until a Maori contingent arrived and threatened them off with a haka.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel will continue its attacks in N Gaza to eliminate Hamas from that portion of land before turning south or turning to confront Hezbollah in a more substantial way if necessary. The battle is now focused on the Al-Shifa and Al-Quds hospitals - both considered to contain beneath them extensive Hamas underground bunkers. It may take on the order of weeks to completely seize and then penetrate into these bunkers.
Captured Hamas documents, combined with more Gazans providing intel to Israeli forces appears to have accelerated the success and lethality of IDF attacks. However, IDF appears to be holding back to a degree to avoid running into traps/ambushes by Hamas in their haste.
Nations and globalist entities continue to call for unconditional cease fire by Israel - and are completely silent on the issue of Hamas holding hostages as well as the terror attack that started this. As the Jpost article i linked to above indicates, Oct 7 caused Israel to cross a Rubicon of sorts, recognizing that a policy of appeasement is deadlier to the nation than putting Hamas out of business permanently.
The arab summit will likely just put out a lot of chest thumping and hot air for moslem consumption. The only players that could act militarily - and have already threatened to do so - are Iran and Turkey. Iran prefers not to get its hands dirty, relying on its proxy forces and seeing the US hammer over its head. Turkey will face pushback and even combat with NATO if they challenge the multi-national naval fleet in the eastern Med operating to deter Hezbollah and Iran. Turkey’s time is not quite now.
Global riots / protests will continue and attempt to grow. However, they are meeting with greater pushback as locals resentment of these islamic migrants are reaching a boiling point as well.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Misc of Note –
Moving away from man-caused chaos, nature is taking center stage for those interested in Iceland.
Iceland’s Department of Civil Protection has just ordered a mandatory evacuation of the city of Grindavík and the Svartsengi Power Station as a volcanic eruption appears imminent. Over 1,000 earthquakes reported over the past 24 hours. Data from the meteorological office indicate that a magma tunnel has extended under Grindavík. That’s why the town was evacuated and the Civil Defense Level of Danger was declared. It cannot be ruled out that a volcanic fissure may open within the town limits.
OBSERVATION - The potential magnitude of the impending eruption at this stage looks to be larger than both of the previous two. Again, it is expected that this eruption will follow typical basaltic pattern, creating dazzling lava fire fountains and extensive lava flows. But even basaltic events, when pushed, can be much more severe.
The area in danger also has a major geothermal power plant that supplies power to 30,000.