I am angry and frustrated today. Republicans are backstabbing their constituents over Jordan, biden et al are doing what they can to frustrate the Israeli ground assault into Gaza, Global MSM have committed blood libel in regards to the claim of an Israeli air strike on a hospital, and most of the sheeple are just blissfully stumbling towards a growing disaster.
There is a storm coming folks, better get ready.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Biden HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra calls for “a universal system of public health” for addressing climate change: “Unfortunately, because the Constitution left the authority for health care to the states…”
OBSERVATION - Universal everything- that is the mantra of the left. They continue to blame that pesky constitution. As things get closer to the ‘great reset’, expect more attacks on the constitution to arise. The biggest being the WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ that could centralize ALL healthcare under it. BTW - their definition of ‘health care’ is broad and includes things like gun violence, etc and most likely will try to enforce a gun ban in the US in time.
Economy –
A lot of rosy forecasts for 2024 - I can’t say my pocket book agrees with these pundits.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
According to multiple news sources, the Lake City ammo plant has cancelled all of its commercial contracts. This means that stores will no longer be able to purchase ammo from Lake City, which currently supplies 30% of the civilian market for 5.56 ammunition.
OBSERVATION - Will need to get out and get some more 5.56 this weekend.
***
Expect more pro-hamas protests / riots with increasing violence, most likely hitting the end of the week and weekend.
Terrorism -
Pending documentation - but there is evidence that the latest islamic terror threats has caused gun sales to spike upward.
Recent widespread false narrative regarding the Gaza hospital has increased the threat in this category. I expect an increase in lone wolf and the potential development of some cells activating, focusing on Jews and Israeli related activities and businesses.
POLITICAL FRONT –
In the midst of the world and country coming apart at the seams, 20 Republicans voted against Jim Jordan for speaker. They need to quit sitting on their thumbs and get to work as they are only playing into the hands of the democrats who are relishing the chaos.
Another vote is scheduled for today. There are some thoughts that these thumb sitters will switch their vote as yesterday’s was a ‘statement’ in principle.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris is AWOL on the Hamas terror attacks.
Illegal Immigration –
Governor Abbott has ordered a concertina wire barrier installed along the Texas border with New Mexico. The Texas National Guard has been deployed to do the work to deter illegal immigration. This barrier is to stop the flow of illegal immigrants going into El Paso. Abbott told an audience at the Manhattan Institute in New York City last month that this would happen. The border between the two states is necessary to stop illegal immigrants from crossing from Mexico into New Mexico and then walking back into El Paso.
OBSERVATION - This could be the beginning of a new fracture between red and blue states. New Mexico and Texan democrats already decrying the action. The DHS could find themselves getting arrested if they try to take down this fence.
China –
Putin talked with Xi on “fully confidential topics”. Putin praised Xi for China’s Belt and Road Initiative and pitched global investment in the Northern Sea Route, which could deepen trade between East and West.
North/South Korea –
The Russian Foreign Minister arrives in North Korea on an official visit. This following documented shipments of arms and ammo to Russia from NK.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin has reportedly stationed planes with Kinzhal missiles to patrol airspace over Black Sea, as a response to situation in Mediterranean Sea - a reference to the build up of US forces there.
Putin continued his stay in China and reportedly talked with Xi on “fully confidential topics”.
Russia’s movements to withdraw from the nuclear test ban treaty is designed to send a political message. From a legal point of view, it meant there was one less reason for Russia to adhere to its self-imposed moratorium. Some experts note that Russia’s withdrawal from the treaty should be taken seriously. While the detonation of a nuclear bomb would provide no military gain, Russia would be signaling that it was ready to kill a great many people: tens or hundreds of thousands, millions.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
While the news feeds are swarmed by the events in Gaza and Israel, Ukraine continues to chew up Russia bite by bite.
Ukraine confirmed that the US has supplied them with ATACAMS missiles.
A Russian Su-25 was shot down at Zaporizhzhia axis, making this the third or forth in a week.
Ukraine hit a Russian military camp near Khalino airfield in Kursk region of Russia with multiple drones. Russia claimed to have shot down most of those drones.
Partially confirmed reports of a major crossing of the Dniper River near Kherson. A multi brigade force reportedly is attacking along the railway bridge near Prydniprovs’ke. towards Pishchanivka.
Ukraine has reportedly taken control of Poima after which they started entering Pishchanivka on the northern outskirts
Ukrainian units are also reportedly attempting to breaktrough between Kozachi Laheri and Krynky a bit more north.
OUTLOOK -
Ukraine’s use of ATACMS will be interest to watch. Yesterday’s attack on key Russian military airfields threatens to force Russia to redeploy aircraft farther away from the front. However, the range of ATACMS covers all of Crimea - so it will be impractical for Russia to deploy their helicopter assets much further back. This put the Russian air wing in the same “boat” as the Black Sea fleet.
Monitoring the development of a potential bridgehead and breakthrough at Kherson over the Dniper River. Russian defensive forces have been severely drawn down to reinforce against Ukraine attacks in other sectors. Units that remain are under manned/equipped and some in the process of rebuilding following being mauled by Ukraine. A successful push by Ukraine to the thin peninsula connecting Crimea to the southern occupied regions could threaten Russian defenses with severe logistical cut off - triggering a retreat.
Europe / NATO General –
Airports across France have been forced to evacuate after receiving bomb threats as Europe remains on high terror alert. The airports of Lille, Lyon, Nice, Nantes, Paris Beauvais Tillé and Toulouse have been forced to close after they all received bomb warnings this morning.
OBSERVATION - Threats most likely from pro-Hamas, pro-islamic radical elements base on the Hamas/Israel war.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* Global media played right into the hands of Hamas overnight uncritically announcing that Israel had hit a hospital with a bomb causing hundreds of deaths. More below
* Massive riots across the world, US, Israeli and some European embassies attacked.
* biden arrived in Tel Aviv to meddle in the conflict. His follow - on meetings in Jordan have been cancelled by Jordan.
GENERAL ——————————-
By far the biggest news is the explosion at the Gaza hospital. Hamas and there willing propagandist news medias when hard and fast claiming it was an Israeli airstrike and that only minutes after the event claimed hundreds of deaths. This triggered massive pro-Hamas riots all across the middle east, targeting Israeli and US embassies in numerous countries.
OSINT analysts immediately tore into the available data and conclusively proved that the explosion was due to a malfunctioning PIJ rocket.
1. They mapped the flight path of a PIJ barrage that passed over the hospital at the time of the explosion. Rocket launch time also equaled the time of the explosion at the hospital.
2. They took the video taken by Al Jazeera to document the aberrant launch/minor explosion and timed it to the explosion at the hospital.
Follow-evidence from Israel provided radar data that tracked precisely along the path the OSINT group projected. Israel also provided before/after aerial photos of the site showing an explosion in the parking lot and that the hospital itself was essentially undamaged.
IDF also released a recording of an intercepted phone call conversation between two Hamas operatives confirming that it was an Islamic Jihad rocket that fell short of Israel and landed within the compound of the Gaza hospital.
Morning light brought more videos of the explosion site and damning evidence of the false narrative Hamas and its coconspirators in the media spun. The damaged vehicles in the parking lot matched exactly the vehicles in the IDF photo. Only three vehicles displayed structural damage - from the blast. Besides being burned in the ensuing fire, cars slightly further away showed no damage from a blast.
A small, approximately 3 foot wide and half foot deep crater was identified. Anyone who’s watched very many of the airstrikes by Israel will be quick to note that even the smallest of the ordnance used by Israel makes a substantially larger crater, which this doesn’t even begin to come close to matching.
During the media feeding frenzy, they promulgated images of collapsed buildings that were claimed to be the hospital. Video from hamas shows that there was essentially no damage to the buildings of the hospital other than some broken windows. This fully confirmed IDF photos.
The media frenzy also fed upon other false photos, some AI generated, others from other conflicts to claim building destruction and wounded. The evidence today is where are the casualties? Were 500 + people just hanging around the parking lot? Hamas medical within minutes put out the 500 death claim. Pretty fast counting and recovery for a parking lot strike.
Some global media is trying to soften their headlines back to an ‘explosion’, but the damage has been done globally and Hamas now has a new “war crime” to rally its brainwashed islamic syncopates around.
In the midst of this, biden shows up to meddle in the Israeli war plans. One surprise is that our intel concurs with the evidence of a misfired PIJ rocket and biden has openly said the same. However, he has no business being in Israel at this time. And most clearly he has dropped the issue of Hamas holding Americans hostage.
Speaking of hostages, a senior Hamas official told NBC News on Tuesday evening that the terrorist group would be willing to release all civilian hostages in one hour if the IDF stops its strikes on the Gaza Strip.
NOTE - We’ve heard this song many times before in other conflicts with Hamas - they lie.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Apart from the hospital debacle, hamas rockets and Israeli counter strikes continued. Egypt continues to refuse to allow any relief convoys into southern Gaza.
IDF spokesman confirms that 450 rockets launched by Gaza terror groups misfired and landed within Gaza. This is on track with previous episodes of hamas et al rocket attacks.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
According to IDF spokesman - “Israel has seen increase in Hezbollah activities on the northern border.”
The Northern Command of the Israeli Army informed the army forces along the Lebanese border of the need to prepare for a “sudden and strong” attack from Southern Lebanon. With this in mind, Israel has expanded the civilian evacuation zone to 5 km from the Lebanese border.
Israel increased the intensity and depth of attacks against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon overnight.
The nature of the Hezbollah threat consists an army of approximately 20,000 soldiers and approximately 150,000 rockets in its arsenal that could easily dwarf the recent rocket attacks launched by Hamas.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
in a psyops move, Iranian Embassy in Syria posted, in Hebrew. - “Time is up”
WEST BANK——————————-
Post hospital riots all over.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Hezbollah announces tomorrow “a day of unprecedented anger” against Israel - Reuters
Iran continues to threaten a preemptive strike on Israel - soon.
Israel calls on its citizens to leave Turkey immediately. Turkish protesters are shooting fireworks at the Israeli Embassy in Ankara and setting it on fire.
Protesters in Jordan Just set the Israeli embassy on fire
The Lebanese army attempted to block protesters from reaching the American embassy near Beirut, but protestors have made it to the embassy and set it on fire. US has placed a Level 4 do not travel to Lebanon advisory into effect.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. As soon as Israel gets biden out of its hair.
Bumbling US policy efforts in this situation has just made matters far worse and the likelihood of Iranian/Hezbollah involvement skyrocketing. The willing accomplices in the global media have made Israel’s defense of its attacks on Hamas seem weak and false - the blood thirsty slaughter and hostage holding by Hamas has been completely submerged on the now very apparent false story of an Israeli airstrike on the hospital. And Iran sees weakness as an opportunity to strike.
Once the dotard leave Israel to go back to DC, the ground offensive should kick off - in spite of all the bad PR. Israel cannot afford to stand down at this stage. Recent events also make it more likely that Israel may preemptively strike Hezbollah in conjunction with the ground offensive into Gaza.
The globalists wanted a world war, we are on a fast track for that to happen.
Iran –
See Israel above on mixed threats.
A black flag is raised over Imam Reza shrine in Iran for first time in history.
Symbolism in Islamic historic tradition:
“When the black flags come from Khorasan (Persia/Central Asia) go to them, even if you have to crawl on snow, among them is the Caliph of Allah, the Mahdi”
OBSERVATION - This is a call to arms across the moslem world. The reference to the “Mahdi”is a moslem apocalyptic reference to the end times final battles.
Iraq -
Protests directed against the US embassy.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
Turkish forces send new military reinforcements to frontlines in the west of Aleppo, NW Syria, in tandem with reinforcements sent by the HTS to the northern countryside of Aleppo. Syrian / Russian forces continued to bombard Idlib and Aleppo areas with artillery and bombers .
>>The DHS could find themselves getting arrested if they try to take down this fence.
Let’s hope so. I’m a bit resigned to the need to get the party started.
The maelstrom of chaos surrounding the terror attack by Hamas combined with all the other issues of the day continue to irritate me to no end. I know that there are many other things worming around under the cover of the war, we just have to be alert and ready for anything.
One way I’ve been forced to adjust is to refocus on local news and activities that could reflect the global issues. Fortunately in my corner of the Redoubt we do have some space for the more significant actions, we are not totally immune. Adjusting my preparations and intelligence requirements on almost a daily basis now. You should too.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Speculation - are the globalist working behind the scenes to create WW3, or at least a level of multi regional wars that approach that level, to facilitate the transition into their “new world order”? War destroys supply chains, the energy sector, food supply and the workforce, which creates dependency on government, which in turn will be taken over by private interests and central banks through the collapse of the global economy.
Economy –
Mortgage rates last week rose for the sixth straight week, causing demand for home loans to drop to the lowest level since 1995.
Total application volume fell 6.9% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 7.70% from 7.67% and points decreased to 0.71 from 0.75 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That is the highest rate since November 2000. The rate was 6.94% during the same week one year ago.
Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 6% week to week and were 21% lower than the same week one year ago.
OBSERVATION - Our housing market is desperately sick and until it gets healthy any rosy forecast of a wonderful economy in 2024 is invalid. Because that sector of the economy touches such a wide area, continued depression will become an increasing burden on the overall economy.
IN RELATED - From 2020 to 2023, the median purchase price of homes in the US rose from $320,000 to over $420,000 – That’s a 33% increase in only 3 years. In 2011, the average price of a home was around $200,000, meaning prices have doubled in a single decade. The average apartment rental price in the US is now $1300 per month, compared to $1000 in 2020, and home rentals have risen to over $2000 per month on average.
MORE RELATED - Potential U.S. homebuyers are increasingly turning to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) with a lower introductory rate after housing affordability has fallen to the lowest level since the early 1980s. This may provide an entry for home ownership, but the risk once the introductory period is over is huge.
FWIW, my last loan was a VA ARM, that had strong limits to how much the interest rate could rise in a year. I don’t think banks are setting out ARMs with similar interest growth limits.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Hundreds of pro-Hamas insurrectionists stormed Capitol facilities demanding a ceasefire in Gaza among other things. All the wile Rep Tlaib riled the crowds out side by reciting the now throughly debunked claim that Israel struck and destroyed a gazan hospital.
OBSERVATION - The anti-Israel movement has gained some traction through the absorption of totally false news narratives like the Gazan hospital. The slippery slope from relatively “peaceful” actions to violence will steepen once the ground offensive starts.
***
Announced protests and pro-Hamas rallies are not at the level of this past weekend, but that is sure to change if the ground offensive kicks off in the next day or so.
***
According to a new poll from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, 31% of former President Donald Trump’s supporters and 24% of President Joe Biden’s supporters said “democracy is no longer viable.” In the same poll, 41% of Biden supporters and 38% of Trump supporters said employing political violence to prevent political opponents from achieving their goals was acceptable. (FO)
OBSERVATION - The divide between red and blue continues to grow and the inclination towards political violence looms large as the 2024 election nears. The Hamas/Israel war appears to have triggered the left out of its post 2020 complacency and back into active and aggressive protesting. Increasing likelihood of it shifting into anti-republican action as the war progresses is almost certain.
Terrorism -
General threat of terror remains high. Primary concern is that of more ‘lone wolf’ attacks which have increased in recent days globally.
Potential for larger attacks will escalate if the war in Gaza expands to include Hezbollah and Iran - especially if Iran is directly hit by either Israel or the US in response to any action it takes against Israel.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Mount Whitney (LCC-20) a Blue Ridge-Class Command Ship which is forward deployed to Gaeta, Italy as the Command and Flag Ship of the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet has now departed from port and is head towards the Eastern Mediterranean in order to link up with U.S. naval forces in the region.
OBSERVATION - Deployment of a combat control vessel to coordinate the actions of two CSGs and a MEF is a serious step up and likely serves as further warning against Hezbollah and Iran getting too froggy.
***
Elements within the rarified atmosphere of the pampered princes of the pentagon are more positioning to prepare for a reinstitution of the draft. A concept that displayed its utter failure during the Vietnam era when Reagan’s all volunteer army came from and center. It brought more volunteers than there were positions - allowing the military to select the brightest and most educated to man modern weaponry and technology. It created a military second to none until Clinton and following globalists took over the presidency.
Today, the military has demonized the very core of those who’ve volunteered in the past - red blooded Americans from Red states. From initial purges of leadership under 0bama, to purges of ranks under biden, these American loving young men and women don’t see the military as anything but supporting leftist govt.
Full disclosure - I’ve said it before. As a veteran I cannot nor will recommend military service for any young person.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep Jordan failed to get the votes needed for speakership - a third vote is scheduled for today. Nasty rumors/reports that some of the RINOs holding out on Jordan may be in some discussions with democrats for power sharing or even having a democrat elected speaker with their support. Current forecast is that the third time will not be a charm for Jordan.
***
Several big law firms have publicly fired or stopped the hiring process of pro-Hamas law graduates/students. In some cases these snowflakes are crying that these firms are committing “violence” by withdrawing their offer of employment. This follows on to the withdrawal of multiple million/billionairs support to leftist universities and colleges.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden to deliver major primetime address tomorrow night to the American people from the Oval office. Reportedly to speak about Ukraine and the Hamas/Israeli war.
BTW - What the heck is happening to biden’s chin?????
Illegal Immigration –
Buried in the news, illegals continue to pour across the southern border at record rates with ever increasing numbers of ‘got aways’.
China –
Trying to closely monitor given the high possibility that they may take advantage of US involvement in Ukraine and Gaza to make a move on Taiwan. However, they may wait until the first of the year - post Taiwan national elections - for action since the current trends of both wars is to increase and spread the US thin.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
*****
Putin has been mocking the delivery of ATACMS systems to Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
In the vicinity of Avdiivka, reports of large numbers of Russian armored vehicles burning. This is associated with reports that Russia has restarted a push around the city.
Post strike analysis by OSINT folks of satellite imagery of the Russian airbases hit with ATACMS a few days ago suggests that even more damage was done that initially reported.
Still hard to wade through the Hamas/Israel situation to get to good info / intel on Ukraine.
OUTLOOK -
Some analysts see Russia’s push on Avdiivka now devolving into a matter of pride. It should be noted that this is the first major operation that Russia hasn’t used Wagner group as shock troops. If the reports of another assault are confirmed, the losses for this assault appear to be stacked against Russia. How long Russia can stand for this level loss is uncertain at this stage, but now on its 10th day, it appears that 3 or more BTG equivalents are history. These forces are not replaceable in either the near or medium term.
Europe / NATO General –
Officials from Belgium, Sweden, and the European Union promised on Wednesday to tighten border security and step up repatriations after a failed asylum seeker from Tunisia murdered two Swedish citizens in Brussels, Belgium.
OBSERVATION - Aggressive migration “controls” are almost too little, too late. The predominately moslem migrant communities have burrowed into these countries like cockroaches. Flooding countries with non-assimilating migrants is a component of the WEF’s plans to destabilize nationalism and force borderless ‘nations’. Follow the money, globalist checkbooks are funding entities moving migrants around the globe. It seems that European countries are finally beginning to say ‘enough’.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* biden departed Israel after an embarrassing series of talks with Israel leaders. He announced Wednesday that the United States will be sending $100 million in aid to the West Bank and Gaza just days after the terrorist organization Hamas stole humanitarian supplies. biden did not bring the issue of American hostages up AT ALL during his time in Israel.
GENERAL ——————————-
More indicators of Israeli preparedness to cross into Gaza and execute the long awaited ground offensive.
Indicators-
- Govt war council meetings and announcements
- biden finally out of Israel.
- Evacuation of civilians from around Gaza and the Lebanese border
- Setting up of numerous field hospitals
- Continued movement of armor and tank to the Gaza border.
Israeli war cabinet met overnight following biden’s departure, probably to cross the “T’s” and dot the “I’s”.
Aftershocks from the now clearly debunked Hamas claim of a destroyed Gaza hospital continues to echo. The false narrative was bought whole hog by global media - and from what i’ve seen, media has yet to apologize for the knee jerk publication of such inflammatory reporting. The common bleat is that they got caught up in the “fog of war”.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas rocket attacks continue on the down trend. The space between barrages has Increased to 14 hours in some instances.
IDF hit more targets affiliated with Hamas leadership, killing more leaders.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Tit for tat attacks continuing on the northern border between IDF and Hezbollah. Hezbollah continues to sporadically launch ATGMs to harass Israeli forces. Israel has reportedly intensified artillery and air strikes on Hezbollah positions in S Lebanon.
Multiple countries have alerted their citizens inside Lebanon that they should immediately evacuate as an Iranian-backed terrorist organization in the country ramps up its attacks on Israel’s northern border amid concerns that a second front could soon be opened in Israel’s war against Islamic terrorists in the region.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Explosions in Quneitra, Syria, as a result of Israeli bombing of Syrian army positions.
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces have conducted a series of arrests in the West Bank, apprehending 83 individuals in recent days, with 51 of them identified as Hamas combatants. Among those detained are prominent figures within the terrorist organization, including Adnan Atzfour, a senior Hamas official in the West Bank, and Na’al Abu Kuwaik, a Hamas leader in the Ramallah area.
Fighting overnight within the City of Qalqilya in the West Bank between IDF troops and Palestinian militants; Israeli reinforcements in Armored Vehicles have been seen heading towards the city.
Police say officers are clashing with Palestinian gunmen in the Nur Shams refugee camp near the West Bank city of Tulkarem, amid an arrest raid
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Hezbollah announced “a day of unprecedented anger” against Israel - was largely a no show.
Pro-Hamas protests continue around the world. Here in the US Capitol Police say about 300 people were arrested after protesting at the US Capitol. Most of them were Jewish activists supporting Palestinians.
Egyptian-Jordanian statement: Al-Sisi and King Abdullah confirmed that any attempt at forced displacement to Jordan or Egypt is rejected.
While flying home, Mr Biden discussed aid for Gaza with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi by phone. Biden told journalists that Mr Sisi had agreed to open the Rafah crossing from Egypt to Gaza to allow about 20 lorries carrying humanitarian aid into the territory. Egypt confirmed its president and Mr Biden had agreed to provide aid to Gaza “in a sustainable manner”. Details are still vague.
French Foreign Ministry: The French death toll since the Hamas attack on southern Israel has risen to 28 people
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent.
Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are likely reassessing their options as the time for invasion closes in. They got a PR bump from the false hospital story - making Israel, US and other western Israeli supporters look weak. The clear and aggressive counter of the narrative and expose of the gross lie is causing the narrative to quickly drop off the radar screen as the deception is not supportable.
The other part of this reassessment is the determination of Israel to follow thru with the ground invasion in spite of global PR and the old stand by defenses of Hamas - hiding behind hostages and civilians. The US also hasn’t backed down its warning to intervene should Hezbollah and Iran get involved.
There are many wild cards still out there and potential scenarios that can come into play once the ground offensive starts. Right now the most immediate reaction may be an increased level of attacks by Hezbollah, drawing just short of full blown rocket and ground attacks.
Israel is hoping to hit Hamas quickly enough to deter any aggressiveness by Hezbollah beyond their current harassment attacks.
Like I said, speculation on events following invasion can follow many paths.
Iran –
Wednesday marked “Transition Day” for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, when all nuclear-related sanctions on Iran expired. On Wednesday, the U.N. will lifted missile restrictions, Iran will seek ratification of its additional protocol, the EU will terminate all remaining nuclear sanctions, and the U.S. will remove certain entities from the sanctioned list and seek legislative termination of certain sanctions, according to the Arms Control Association.
OBSERVATION - Iran has worked around these restrictions for years now and biden’s massive backtracking on sanctions has encouraged Iran to pursue these technologies as well as expand its terror efforts across the region and world.
Iran is understood to be capable of producing enough fissionable material for a nuclear bomb in about two weeks. Chances are they likely have enough already - held under the strictest of security. The biggest question is has Iran obtained the technology necessary to construct a bomb? Its historical partnership with NK and its new found relationship with Russia may well be towards that end.
Iraq -
Continued anti-American protests in Bagdad.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
Explosions of unknown origin have been heard near the Conoco Gaz field base in eastern Deir ez-Zur. It is believed that Iranian militias targeted the vicinity of the Conoco base where U.S. forces are based.
The U.S. intercepted two one-way attack drones targeting Iraq’s al-Asad air base where U.S. troops are located. This happened early Wednesday morning local time. No injuries have been reported, according to U.S. defense officials.
OBSERVATION - Increased attacks on Coalition forces in eastern Syria due in part to the Hamas/Israel conflict, although I’ve noted a lot of buildup in the past months directed by Iran and Syria to make those bases/operations difficult and to try to force them out.
***
ISIS has launched a major assault on several Assad government positions to the south & east of al-Sukhna on Syria’s M20 highway, including a number of gas facilities, one of which is the strategic Doubayat gas field
Africa general –
Houthi elements are reportedly executing a military call up to support Hamas.