Heads up, I will not be posting this Saturday - Sunday due to Memorial Day and Monday’s post will likely be abbreviated/summarized.
Globalism / Great Reset –
WHO meetings contine.
Economy –
Global corn production is forecast to sharply increase, driven primarily by a forecast of continued high production in Brazil and rebounds in the United States and Argentina. Supplies in Ukraine are forecast to fall as the ongoing war limits production. Trade is forecast to increase as ample supplies from major exporters Brazil, Argentina, and the United States lower prices and supports a rebound in global demand. Global consumption of corn for both feed and non-feed uses is forecast up. Ending stocks are also forecast to rise, primarily due to a strong surge in stocks in the United States.
The global wheat outlook is for larger production and consumption with declining global trade and ending stocks. Production is projected to increase with larger crops in Argentina, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, and Turkey more than offsetting large declines for Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. Global trade will contract with lower imports for China. Declines in exports for Australia, India, Ukraine, and the United States will more than offset increases for Argentina, Canada, and the EU. Global consumption is forecast up on larger Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use more than offsetting lower feed and residual use. Ending stocks are forecast down, with smaller stocks in the EU, Russia, and the United States.
Global rice production is forecast at a record with larger production in Asia, especially on record crops in Bangladesh, India, and China along with a recovery in Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to rise to a new record, primarily from strong growth in India, Bangladesh, and Sub- Saharan Africa. Global trade is forecast virtually unchanged with India remaining the top exporter. Pakistan is expected to see significant growth in exports amidst a rebounding crop, while forecasts for Thailand and Vietnam – the next largest exporters – are down due to less demand from Indonesia. Global stocks continue a downward trend to a 6-year low.
OBSERVATION - This has potential to bring food prices down eventually.
Terrorism -
DHS issued a new domestic terror alert -
“The United States remains in a heightened threat environment. Lone offenders and small groups motivated by a range of ideological beliefs and personal grievances continue to pose a persistent and lethal threat to the Homeland. Both domestic violent extremists (DVEs) and those associated with foreign terrorist organizations continue to attempt to motivate supporters to conduct attacks in the Homeland, including through violent extremist messaging and online calls for violence. In the coming months, factors that could mobilize individuals to commit violence include their perceptions of the 2024 general election cycle and legislative or judicial decisions pertaining to sociopolitical issues. Likely targets of potential violence include US critical infrastructure, faith-based institutions, individuals or events associated with the LGBTQIA+ community, schools, racial and ethnic minorities, and government facilities and personnel, including law enforcement.”
https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-may-24-2023
OBSERVATION - this in parallel with the stated position that whites are the greatest threat to the country, it is apparent that this broad brush terror alert is in line with that position. Also note emphasis on recipients being LGBTQIA+. We are entering a month of Gay Pride Month perversion - watch for false flags.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Navy ordered the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group to head to the island of Guam to assist in the recovery effort from the Typhoon Mawar, according to reports.
The Nimitz, along with the USS Bunker Hill, a cruiser, and the USS Wayne E. Meyer, a destroyer, were south of Japan headed to Guam, where they were expected to arrive in three or four days.
POLITICAL FRONT –
All kinds of maneuvering and chest thumping as ‘negotiations’ for the debt ceiling raise continue. Judging from the intensity of the democrat bleats, the republicans may hold the edge for once.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Chinese government-backed hackers have attacked and compromised “critical” US infrastructure, according to Microsoft. Microsoft says it discovered a Chinese government hacking group targeted sensitive telecommunications providers around the U.S. to install code that could disrupt critical communications infrastructure
Illegal Immigration –
Illegals continue to pile up at the border, but the massive surge that has been expected is still pending.
China –
See Cyber Attacks/war above.
North/South Korea –
SK and US start a several week series of live fire exercises.
Japan –
Japan has scrambled jet fighters after spotting Russian military planes over the Pacific Ocean and Sea of Japan (East Sea), the defense ministry says.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
See Belarus for latest on storing nukes there.
RUMINT-
Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, warned that Russia could face a revolution similar to those of 1917 and lose the conflict in Ukraine unless the elite got serious about fighting the war.
As per Russian military bloggers, the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade is being redeployed to the border of Ukraine in Belgorod Oblast from Zaporizhizhia Oblast
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Wagner Group’s announced two-month reconstitution period could have Wagner forces sitting out key parts of the Ukrainian counteroffensive depending on when and how it begins.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
RUMINT –
“Freedom of Russia Legion conquered more territories in a day than Wagner Group did in a year in Bakhmut”
- Bild.
Wagner’s Prigozhin - “Western analysts consider the breakthrough of the sabotage group into the Belgorod region as evidence that the Russian line of defense is extremely vulnerable, which is another proof that Putin is unable to wage this war, since the “grand” plan “Kyiv in 3 days” has reached a point where Russia cannot defend their own territory. If the Russians want to prepare to repel further raids, it will have to withdraw 60,000 soldiers from Ukraine.”
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 36 of 36 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight.
Belgorod region saw 6 persons wounded as result of shelling at Kozinka and Grayvoron border checkpoint yesterday evening. RDK again entered the territory of Russia yesterday.
Fighting in Bakhmut proper has dropped off significantly, while fights on the flanks have increased.
Kharkiv Front -
PMC Wagner mercenaries reportedly started withdrawal from Bakhmut. More scattered fighting along the southern flank of the city. The pullout has yet to be confirmed.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Explosions and fire reported at airport in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region
Russian Territory –
The SIGINT intelligence collection ship Ivan Hurs was attacked by Ukrainian naval drones in the Bosphorus area yesterday. No damage caused - Russia’s Ministry of Defense. However, there is video evidence that at least one of the drones made it to the ship and exploded.
OUTLOOK –
Operational tempo continues to change. Raids into the Belgorod region appear to have created the desired effect in having Russia pull forces out of Ukraine to bolster the border region. Wagner’s Prigozhin has said it would take 60,000 troops to secure the border. That would be a huge hit to Russian plans to defend southern Ukraine.
Ukraine has adjusted to the threat from the Iranian drones quite well. Russia’s success now appears to be when multiple types and numbers of missiles are launched in addition to the Shahed drones - in a saturation attack. However, even those attacks are losing effectiveness and causing Russia to waste assets.
Belarus -
This morning, Belarusian Defense Minister Khrenin and Russian Defense Minister Shoigu met in Minsk. and signed documents determining the procedure for storing Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. They also signed documents determining the procedure for storing Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in a special storage facility on the territory of Belarus.
Shoigu stated that the Russian Federation will exercise control over nuclear weapons, as well as decide on their use.
Iran –
Iran unveiled the fourth generation of its Khorramshahr ballistic missile under the name Khaibar, with a range of 2,000 km (1,243 miles) and a 1,500 kg (3,300 lb) warhead, the official IRNA news agency reported on Thursday.
OBSERVATION - Iran continues to expand its arsenal that not only threatens Israel, but its opponents in the Persian Gulf region.
Turkey –
Turkish runoff election is fast approaching and it appears that Erodogen stands to be reelected.
Should help with inflation the world over... Nice happy news about crops.
Heads up, I will not be posting this Saturday - Sunday due to Memorial Day and Monday’s post will likely be abbreviated/summarized.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Planting this tidbit of info here because of globalist aspirations.
“Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, filed a lawsuit (Missouri v. Biden) against the Biden Administration, including Biden himself, Anthony Fauci, the Department of Homeland Security, and nearly a dozen federal agencies and Secretaries. Schmitt has moved on to represent Missouri in the US Senate.
The suit alleges a massive coordinated effort by the Deep State (permanent administrative state) to work with Big Tech to censor and manipulate Americans – from average citizens to news outlets – on issues including the Hunter Biden Laptop from Hell, 2020 Election Integrity, COVID-19 origin and extent skepticism, COVID-19 vaccine skepticism, among other issues.”
“The most widespread and troubling discovery? CISA has designated YOUR THOUGHTS part of the government’s infrastructure. They call it “cognitive infrastructure.”
They argue they can regulate what you think as they consider it under their purview.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/05/biden-regime-designates-your-thoughts-as-part-government/
OBSERVATION - As Orwellian as this sounds, consider the extensive efforts the regime went through to throttle free speech / thought as exposed by the Twitter Files. Their obsessive drive to silence any thing opposing the official ‘narrative’ along multiple subjects -as the article indicates.
Economy –
Fitch Ratings has placed the United States’ ‘AAA’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) on Rating Watch Negative.
Meanwhile, McCarthy and biden state that there is some ‘progress’ at reaching an agreement. The Times reported negotiators were closing in on a deal that would raise the debt limit for two years while imposing strict caps on spending, with the military and veterans’ budgets protected from caps.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
RUMINT “A federal agency has two snitches inside Delta Force. They’re active-duty soldiers with 18-series MOS’s who have passed selection but they’re actually undercover cops keeping an eye on things for another agency. The unit doesn’t realize they’ve been infiltrated.”
OBSERVATION - As far fetched that this would seem, shake off the normalcy bias and realize that the regime’s surveillance push to watch potential adversaries increases the likelyhood of this being factual. Special ops forces can generally be considered to be conservative and highly motivated. In the event that things go ‘hot’ in the country, Special Ops are one element I would consider to be on the side of the citizens. This rumor may also be used to plant suspicion and upset the tight bonds Special Ops forces have as a group. I really pity the fools who are snitches - if this report is accurate.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Children of certain ages who received Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine face an elevated risk of heart inflammation, according to a new federally funded study.
Vaccinated children aged 12 to 17 face a heightened risk of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, and a related condition called pericarditis, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) researchers found.
The number of myocarditis and pericarditis events in that age group met the threshold for a safety signal, the researchers reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association on May 22.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2805184
OBSERVATION - Increasing documentation that the myocarditis associated with wuhan is a threat to younger recipients of the jab.
Illegal Immigration –
Chicago-area parents are voicing their outrage over public schools allowing migrant children to enroll without health documentation, as cities across the U.S. are dealing with an influx of migrants into their communities.
Mother Jennifer Preston joined “Fox & Friends First” on Thursday to discuss the hypocrisy of requiring vaccination records from residents, while migrants are allowed to enroll without such documents.
“Right now in the school district in which we live we have to provide residency, citizenship, health records and vaccination records on an almost annual basis. I have a child right now, and I must have five emails in my inbox stating that my child cannot return to school next year without a specific vaccine. So it’s certainly inconsistent with what they’re allowing for the migrant children coming into the Chicago public schools.”
OBSERVATION - Rude awakening for all those liberals in Chicago who voted for biden.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
********
Yesterday, it was being reported that a second Russian flagged multi-use vessel, 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 (IMO 9340609), is reported to be ‘hove to’ [adrift] in the Black Sea. It seems that the “Commander” is a recovery ship and the message was in regards to the “Ivan Khurs”. Sources indicate that the “Ivan Khurs” received serious damage to the hull and equipment. Its repair will take at least six months. There are dead.
The “Commander” rescue ship is now reportedly transporting the stricken ship to Novorossiysk. The minimum speed is 0.8 knots per hour, which once again confirms the serious damage.
News from Russian is following the same pattern as with the sinking of the Moskva over a year ago.
**
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced that Russian officials have created seven territorial defense battalions in Belgorod Oblast as of May 24, likely to posture his engagement in the defense of Russian border areas following the May 22 raid. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on May 24 that these battalions have a strong presence but are severely hindered by an inadequate weapons supply.
NOTE - It his believed that these battalions, are unfunded and unequipped, will very unlikely to have a substantial positive effect on the security of Russian border areas. The announcement seems to be more directed at propaganda to stem the concerns of those living in the border region. Saying you’ve created these battalions doesn’t mean they are on the border ready to go.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
TASS: Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu: “In the context of an extremely sharp escalation of threats on the western borders of Russia and Belarus, a decision was made to take countermeasures in the military-nuclear sphere.”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
ㅤUkrainian Defense Sources are reporting that the Russian Missile attack on the Capital City of Kyiv tonight utilizing Kh-55 Cruise Missiles launched from Tu-95MS Strategic Bombers was a “failure” with all missiles being detected and destroyed resulting in no casualties or damage.
Ukraine reported that it shot down -
10x Kh-101/Kh-555.
23x Shahed-131/136
2x Orlan
However, S-300/S-400 missiles hit Dnipro and Kharkiv. 1 person killed, 15 wounded as result of missile strike at hospital in Dnipro city where Russian struck a major hospital in Dnipro. The hospital is a hub for Ukrainian soldiers wounded at the frontlines. They are treated there before being transported to other hospitals. The regional governor says there are fatalities.
A major oil depot was struck in Kharkiv and is on fire, according to Ukrainian officials.
Kharkiv Front -
The Ukrainian military confirm that the Wagners forces have begun to leave Bakhmut, and the regular army is taking their place.
Donetsk Front ——
A factory in Russian-occupied Berdyansk was hit. The explosions are strong and caused secondary explosions. Some report an ammunition depot was hit by Storm Shadows.
Crimean front ———
Loud explosions rang out through Russian-occupied Berdiansk. Local Telegram channels reported that at least two blasts were heard in the city. Ukrainian Forces successfully struck a Russian military facility in the same city, 3 km away on May 21.
Russian Territory –
Explosions in Schebekyne district of Belgorod region.
Drones similar to Shaheds are striking Krasnodar, Russia, overnight
OUTLOOK –
Situation continues to be one of operational pauses combined with battlefield preparations for the next phase of the war - the Ukraine offensive.
Russian and Ukrainian missile strikes are designed to shape the battle field in advance of the anticipated Ukraine assault. I would say that so far, Ukraine has the advantage in economy of strikes as well as effective penetration of Russian air defenses. Ukraine knows when Russian strategic bombers are in the air and the likelihood that they are carrying cruise missiles. Same goes for Black Sea fleet vessels. This gives Ukraine ADA assets advance notice (in some cases 30 minutes or more) of incoming and likely target regions. Russia doesn’t have such flexibility with the shorter range Ukraine assets.
With the apparently successful strike against the Russian intel ship “Ivan Khurs”, Russian forces in the Black Sea will be even more cautious venturing out from their Crimean ports. The fact that these drone boats struck the “Ivan Khurs” in the southern half of the Black Sea indicates that there must have been a mother ship of some kind. This will definitely cause Russian to be even more reluctant to expose these vessels when the Ukraine offensive kicks off.
Wagner forces are apparently handing over Bakhmut to regular army forces and reportedly staying in theater for at least 2 months to recover and rearm. This suggests that they are being held as a reserve force to counter any Ukraine breakthroughs.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s Party has put forward a law proposal to Parliament that will change the Soviet-style WW2 “Victory Day” celebrated on May 9th into the type of Western celebration that takes place on May 8th.
Syria -
Assad may be preparing to renew an attempt to capture southern Idlib Provence given the increased artillery and air strikes in the region overnight. Region has been essentially static since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Mexico -
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) urged Latin voters to not support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican primary. AMLO accused DeSantis of “playing politics with migrants” over promises to shut down illegal immigration.