Heads up, I will not be posting this Saturday - Sunday due to Memorial Day and Monday’s post will likely be abbreviated/summarized.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Planting this tidbit of info here because of globalist aspirations.
“Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, filed a lawsuit (Missouri v. Biden) against the Biden Administration, including Biden himself, Anthony Fauci, the Department of Homeland Security, and nearly a dozen federal agencies and Secretaries. Schmitt has moved on to represent Missouri in the US Senate.
The suit alleges a massive coordinated effort by the Deep State (permanent administrative state) to work with Big Tech to censor and manipulate Americans – from average citizens to news outlets – on issues including the Hunter Biden Laptop from Hell, 2020 Election Integrity, COVID-19 origin and extent skepticism, COVID-19 vaccine skepticism, among other issues.”
“The most widespread and troubling discovery? CISA has designated YOUR THOUGHTS part of the government’s infrastructure. They call it “cognitive infrastructure.”
They argue they can regulate what you think as they consider it under their purview.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/05/biden-regime-designates-your-thoughts-as-part-government/
OBSERVATION - As Orwellian as this sounds, consider the extensive efforts the regime went through to throttle free speech / thought as exposed by the Twitter Files. Their obsessive drive to silence any thing opposing the official ‘narrative’ along multiple subjects -as the article indicates.
Economy –
Fitch Ratings has placed the United States’ ‘AAA’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) on Rating Watch Negative.
Meanwhile, McCarthy and biden state that there is some ‘progress’ at reaching an agreement. The Times reported negotiators were closing in on a deal that would raise the debt limit for two years while imposing strict caps on spending, with the military and veterans’ budgets protected from caps.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
RUMINT “A federal agency has two snitches inside Delta Force. They’re active-duty soldiers with 18-series MOS’s who have passed selection but they’re actually undercover cops keeping an eye on things for another agency. The unit doesn’t realize they’ve been infiltrated.”
OBSERVATION - As far fetched that this would seem, shake off the normalcy bias and realize that the regime’s surveillance push to watch potential adversaries increases the likelyhood of this being factual. Special ops forces can generally be considered to be conservative and highly motivated. In the event that things go ‘hot’ in the country, Special Ops are one element I would consider to be on the side of the citizens. This rumor may also be used to plant suspicion and upset the tight bonds Special Ops forces have as a group. I really pity the fools who are snitches - if this report is accurate.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Children of certain ages who received Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine face an elevated risk of heart inflammation, according to a new federally funded study.
Vaccinated children aged 12 to 17 face a heightened risk of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, and a related condition called pericarditis, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) researchers found.
The number of myocarditis and pericarditis events in that age group met the threshold for a safety signal, the researchers reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association on May 22.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2805184
OBSERVATION - Increasing documentation that the myocarditis associated with wuhan is a threat to younger recipients of the jab.
Illegal Immigration –
Chicago-area parents are voicing their outrage over public schools allowing migrant children to enroll without health documentation, as cities across the U.S. are dealing with an influx of migrants into their communities.
Mother Jennifer Preston joined “Fox & Friends First” on Thursday to discuss the hypocrisy of requiring vaccination records from residents, while migrants are allowed to enroll without such documents.
“Right now in the school district in which we live we have to provide residency, citizenship, health records and vaccination records on an almost annual basis. I have a child right now, and I must have five emails in my inbox stating that my child cannot return to school next year without a specific vaccine. So it’s certainly inconsistent with what they’re allowing for the migrant children coming into the Chicago public schools.”
OBSERVATION - Rude awakening for all those liberals in Chicago who voted for biden.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
********
Yesterday, it was being reported that a second Russian flagged multi-use vessel, 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 (IMO 9340609), is reported to be ‘hove to’ [adrift] in the Black Sea. It seems that the “Commander” is a recovery ship and the message was in regards to the “Ivan Khurs”. Sources indicate that the “Ivan Khurs” received serious damage to the hull and equipment. Its repair will take at least six months. There are dead.
The “Commander” rescue ship is now reportedly transporting the stricken ship to Novorossiysk. The minimum speed is 0.8 knots per hour, which once again confirms the serious damage.
News from Russian is following the same pattern as with the sinking of the Moskva over a year ago.
**
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced that Russian officials have created seven territorial defense battalions in Belgorod Oblast as of May 24, likely to posture his engagement in the defense of Russian border areas following the May 22 raid. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on May 24 that these battalions have a strong presence but are severely hindered by an inadequate weapons supply.
NOTE - It his believed that these battalions, are unfunded and unequipped, will very unlikely to have a substantial positive effect on the security of Russian border areas. The announcement seems to be more directed at propaganda to stem the concerns of those living in the border region. Saying you’ve created these battalions doesn’t mean they are on the border ready to go.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
TASS: Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu: “In the context of an extremely sharp escalation of threats on the western borders of Russia and Belarus, a decision was made to take countermeasures in the military-nuclear sphere.”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
ㅤUkrainian Defense Sources are reporting that the Russian Missile attack on the Capital City of Kyiv tonight utilizing Kh-55 Cruise Missiles launched from Tu-95MS Strategic Bombers was a “failure” with all missiles being detected and destroyed resulting in no casualties or damage.
Ukraine reported that it shot down -
10x Kh-101/Kh-555.
23x Shahed-131/136
2x Orlan
However, S-300/S-400 missiles hit Dnipro and Kharkiv. 1 person killed, 15 wounded as result of missile strike at hospital in Dnipro city where Russian struck a major hospital in Dnipro. The hospital is a hub for Ukrainian soldiers wounded at the frontlines. They are treated there before being transported to other hospitals. The regional governor says there are fatalities.
A major oil depot was struck in Kharkiv and is on fire, according to Ukrainian officials.
Kharkiv Front -
The Ukrainian military confirm that the Wagners forces have begun to leave Bakhmut, and the regular army is taking their place.
Donetsk Front ——
A factory in Russian-occupied Berdyansk was hit. The explosions are strong and caused secondary explosions. Some report an ammunition depot was hit by Storm Shadows.
Crimean front ———
Loud explosions rang out through Russian-occupied Berdiansk. Local Telegram channels reported that at least two blasts were heard in the city. Ukrainian Forces successfully struck a Russian military facility in the same city, 3 km away on May 21.
Russian Territory –
Explosions in Schebekyne district of Belgorod region.
Drones similar to Shaheds are striking Krasnodar, Russia, overnight
OUTLOOK –
Situation continues to be one of operational pauses combined with battlefield preparations for the next phase of the war - the Ukraine offensive.
Russian and Ukrainian missile strikes are designed to shape the battle field in advance of the anticipated Ukraine assault. I would say that so far, Ukraine has the advantage in economy of strikes as well as effective penetration of Russian air defenses. Ukraine knows when Russian strategic bombers are in the air and the likelihood that they are carrying cruise missiles. Same goes for Black Sea fleet vessels. This gives Ukraine ADA assets advance notice (in some cases 30 minutes or more) of incoming and likely target regions. Russia doesn’t have such flexibility with the shorter range Ukraine assets.
With the apparently successful strike against the Russian intel ship “Ivan Khurs”, Russian forces in the Black Sea will be even more cautious venturing out from their Crimean ports. The fact that these drone boats struck the “Ivan Khurs” in the southern half of the Black Sea indicates that there must have been a mother ship of some kind. This will definitely cause Russian to be even more reluctant to expose these vessels when the Ukraine offensive kicks off.
Wagner forces are apparently handing over Bakhmut to regular army forces and reportedly staying in theater for at least 2 months to recover and rearm. This suggests that they are being held as a reserve force to counter any Ukraine breakthroughs.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s Party has put forward a law proposal to Parliament that will change the Soviet-style WW2 “Victory Day” celebrated on May 9th into the type of Western celebration that takes place on May 8th.
Syria -
Assad may be preparing to renew an attempt to capture southern Idlib Provence given the increased artillery and air strikes in the region overnight. Region has been essentially static since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Mexico -
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) urged Latin voters to not support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican primary. AMLO accused DeSantis of “playing politics with migrants” over promises to shut down illegal immigration.
Remembering those who gave their all for our country.
Skimming some of the bigger items - couldn’t maintain detail over the past couple days on the road.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The WHO was to have met last week to iron out final details for a global pandemic response organization who’s rules would overrule national sovereignty. I have not yet found information on the finals of the meetings. However, what i have found indicates that the WHO has set a new target date of May 2024 for a legally binding agreement to be adopted by the UN health agency’s 194 member countries.
Economy –
The nation’s Gross Domestic Product rose 1.3% in the first quarter, half the rate of the previous quarter, as other key measures of the economy faltered, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday.
While revised up from 1.1%, the first-quarter, inflation-adjusted (“real”) GDP growth of 1.3% was half the 2.6% growth recorded in both the same period last year and the fourth quarter of 2022.
Adjusted pre-tax corporate profits fell at a 5.1% quarterly rate, more than twice the 2.0% decline the previous quarter. This marks the first time profits have fallen for three straight quarters since 2015, under the Obama Administration.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 2.3% in the first quarter, following a revised 3.3% decline in the fourth quarter of last year. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, decreased 0.5% in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.4% in the fourth quarter.
The personal saving rate (personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 4.2% in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.6 percentage point.
OBSERVATION - Economic indicators continue to slide towards a recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Bomb threats against Target for their grooming displays were not from the right, the email was sent by an LGBTQ fanatic who was upset that the store removed some items from its Pride display.
**
Formal BLM leadership organization is essentially bankrupt with its leaders purchasing multimillion dollar mansions and living the big life off of the extorted millions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The GOP-led House is expected to vote Wednesday on the legislation resulting from a compromise between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden on the debt limit.
According to the full text of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, the debt ceiling would be lifted by about $4 trillion through Jan. 1, 2025, domestic spending would revert to fiscal year 2022 levels and “top line federal spending” is limited to 1% growth for the next 6 years.
The original House-passed bill that Republicans supported had increased the ceiling by $1.5 trillion and it contained similar spending reforms.
OBSERVATION - Lots not to be happy about. Can kicked down the road for the next congress/president to address.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
(Bloomberg) — An alleged campaign by Chinese state-sponsored hackers on targets in the US and Guam has raised fears that Beijing is preparing to disrupt communications in the Pacific in the event of a conflict.
The hacking campaign was first identified by Microsoft Corp. on Wednesday and quickly confirmed by authorities in the US, UK and other allied nations. Microsoft said the hacking group, which it dubbed Volt Typhoon, had breached government, communications, manufacturing and IT organizations in the US and Guam, a crucial military post in the western Pacific Ocean.
While the identities of most of the hacking victims remains unknown, US Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro told CNBC on Thursday that the Navy was impacted by the intrusions. The extent of the breach wasn’t immediately known. A spokesperson for the US Navy declined to “discuss the status of our networks.”
Meanwhile, Rob Joyce, the director of cybersecurity at the National Security Agency, told CNN Thursday that Chinese hackers could still have access to sensitive US networks that they’ve targeted. Joyce said the intrusions stood out in how brazen they were in “scope and scale.”
OBSERVATION - Battlefield preparation - disruption of command and control being readied.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
SEE BELOW
RUMINT-
A “trusted source” within the Ukrainian national security establishment told Tsarizm that the Ukrainian leadership believes Russia is planning to use a tactical nuclear device in the Ukraine war in the coming weeks, as the West prepares for it’s ‘spring offensive’ to retake Crimea and Donbass, lost to Russian forces since 2014.
OBSERVATION - At this moment, this reads as propaganda and misinformation warfare. As Russia announces that it is already moving tactical nukes into Belarus this pops up. Russia has been beating the drum about the use of nukes since before the war began. At this stage, Russian has been thwarted on the battlefield and its attempts to change the momentum of the war with conventional missiles/drones failing as well. Tactical nukes hitting at Ukraine’ offensive is pretty much Russia’s ace in the hole to protect Crimea.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy weekend. On Kyiv day, Russia lobbed something like 54 iranian drones at the city w/ 52 shot down. Overnight, Russian continued the attack, Ukrainian air defense shot down all ‘37 missiles and 29 drones’ and in a later attack, all 11 Russian ballistic and cruise missiles Iskander in the 2d consecutive day of attacks on Kyiv.
Some ground action around Bakhmut, while most activity along the front consisted of scattered artillery strikes.
ㅤ
Kharkiv Front -
Wagner is reportedly to finish handing off its frontline positions by June 5th.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
As a probable sign of battlefield shaping, Ukraine has been hitting Russian command posts and troop concentrations throughout this Oblast.
Russian Territory –
The SIGINT intelligence collection ship Ivan Hurs is still a mystery. Looks like it is ok, but a lot of spin and (mis) information over the weekend.
OUTLOOK –
Looks like Ukraine is stepping up strategic attacks on Russian targets in the south. Russia OTOH appears to be stepping up its’ missile campaign against Kyiv. Ukraine’s missile strikes are having success, Russia’s are getting shot down.
As the looming storm that is the expected Ukrainian offensive gets closer, eyes once again shift toward the potential by Russia to use tactical nukes to blunt the attack. In specific, Crimea has been their red line - and Crimea is in Ukraine’s crosshairs. If Ukraine continues in its well developed combined arms tactics armed with better, western equipment and skilled/creative use of offensive means - Russia will get creamed at the point of the offensive. All those ‘fortifications’ are worthless if you cannot defend them with an adequate force. And Russia doesn’t have the forces available to stop the assault at those barriers. Even with some sort of mobile reserve, there will be considerable delay in the Russian response.
This brings us back to Russian use of tactical nukes. Throughout the war, Russia has displayed a callousness towards Ukraine in its indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets, and in order to capture towns, they leveled them to the ground. Now, with over 200,000 casualties (some list it at deaths), the war is hard to hide from Russians and continued losses not looking good for putin’s power base. It would almost seem that nukes are the next to be used.
BLUF - Nukes would likely be successful in blunting the Ukraine offensive - if Russia can figure out where to properly target them. The billion dollar question is does Russia appreciate the secondary consequences of such an action? China and Russia’s few ‘allies’ are working to keep nukes out of the mix. for one. Second, such an attack may trigger Poland and the Baltic states to get directly involved in the war - escalating it to potential full NATO involvement. Russia has no other countries that will run to its aid like Ukraine does (Belarus still doesn’t want anything to do with a Ukraine ground war). Very black days if Russia throws a nuke into the mix.
Shy of nukes, Russia’s only hope is that they get lucky and are able to stop the offensive with the poorly trained and equipped forces it has. Their only hope is a long game where they can keep drafting hundreds of thousands to throw at the front lines and wear Ukraine down over time.
For Ukraine - the stakes are mighty high. Some see this as one of the biggest military operations in Europe since WW2. Its not an overstatement that at this juncture, the results of the war could be decided. If Ukraine can gain results like they did in Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts, but in at a larger scale, Russia may be forced to negotiate at a disadvantage (and hence the nuke threat raises its head again).
Poland –
Poland has announced it will close the border for freight vehicles registered in Russia and Belarus indefinitely.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Kosovo Serbs rebelled against Albanian mayors entering the municipality buildings following the election boycott by Belgrade-aligned groups. Kosovo moved in to take control back and Serbia moved military forces to the border region as a threat.
NATO troops have formed security cordons in Kosovo as Serbs protest. US troops blocked off four town halls to keep back Serbs protesting against ethnic Albanian mayors taking office in north Kosovo.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has placed the country’s army on full combat alert and ordered its units to move closer to the border with Kosovo, after protesters and police clashed in a majority Serbian town in Kosovo - Reuters
OBSERVATION - This could escalate, but the quick involvement of NATO forces, combined with the democratic elections of ethnic Kosovoans, won’t gain support in the global sphere. Russia is not likely to be involved in this provocation - which may cause things to wind down relatively quickly and it won’t be able to ride to the rescue.
Iran –
Iran has moved military forces to the border with Afghanistan following escalation of a water dispute with the Taliban. Afghanistan reciprocated and fighting broke out along the border. At issue are Iranian claims on water that they say Afghanistan is withholding from them.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
See Iran Above.
Senior Taliban commander Abdulhamid Khorasani, aka Nasser Badri, has in a video message warned that the group will fight against Iranians “with more passion” than they did against the US forces. “We will conquer Iran soon if Taliban’s leaders give the green light for jihad.”
Turkey –
Erdogan easily won his bid for re-election