Replies

Anniversary of the non-insurrection Jan 6 protests. Democrats holding their somber memorial today in rememberance.

Economy –

Utility companies warned federal lawmakers of a severe shortage of power transformers. According to Grid Assurance CEO Dave Rupert, large transformers have increased in price by 20% to 50% since 2020, and the time to procure new transformers has increased to as long as 39 months. American Public Power Association CEO Joy Ditto said the average price for distribution transformers has at least doubled, and the shortage caught utilities by surprise. According to Ditto, only a few domestic manufacturers make distribution transformers, and those manufacturers are dealing with constraints on labor, materials, and capacity. (FO)

OBSERVATION – This has been a problem for several decades now, and the recent vandalism of substations has highlighted this concern once again. Many large transformers are almost custom made – meaning even longer waits if one goes out. In the Before Years replacement, though slow, could be counted on – eventually. Today, reliance on China and other foreign countries critically jeopardizes replacement.

According to data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global, manufacturing in the U.S. shrank for the second month in a row in December 2022. ISM data showed a 10.4-point drop in their manufacturing index, the biggest drop since the Great Recession in 2008. The S&P Global manufacturing index hit its lowest level since May 2020. (FO)

OBSERVATION - A major contraction in manufacturing is an indicator of shrinking consumer demand and a strong sign of recession.

The survey of business establishments is likely to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 200,000 jobs last month after rising 263,000 in November, according to a Reuters poll of economists. That would be the smallest gain in two years.
However, job growth would far exceed the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 range that economists associate with tight labor markets.

OBSERVATION – The fed will be looking closely at these numbers, likely to see them as a threat to its efforts to reduce inflation or see them as a sign that the rate increases are having the desired effect to cool the job market. One has to remember that the job market is just beginning to catch up to per-wuhan levels and doesn’t mark anything specifically ‘new’ beyond that. Only in the past month or so have service related positions - food industry for example – finally regained pre-wuhan levels.

The Biden administration signed off on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations to protect small streams, wetlands and waterways as part of the Clean Water Act, just before the end of 2022. The EPA signed off on the revised definition of “Waters of the United States” on Dec. 29 while the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers signed off on the revised definitions on Dec. 28.
The revised rules define what types of water bodies are protected under the Clean Water Act and were based on definitions that were put in place before 2015 during the Obama administration.

Congressman Doug LaMalfa, a Republican who represents California, is opposed to the regulations.
“Rural America doesn’t need yet another rule giving the federal government more power over farming and private property,” he said in a statement last week. “The federal government shouldn’t have jurisdiction to regulate puddles, ditches, seasonal creeks or culverts. All this rule does is make it more difficult to grow food or build anything.”

OBSERVATION – Basically reinstates the nonsensical rule that just about any mud puddle or surface trickle is now considered to be a ‘wetland’ under full protection of the US govt. This will have (and has in the past) serious detrimental impacts to to farmers, builders, and oil producers, who were concerned about feds regulating ravines and creeks on private property, like farms. For power hungry regulators, this is a jackpot. For the rest of Americans, an unmitigated disaster. The economic impacts will be significant - reduction in food and energy production for starters.

NOTE – personal experience . in cleaning up an environmental site that once was a military base, old building foundations that retained water were to be protected under these 0bama era regulations as ‘wet land’ because they found fairy shrimp in them. So puddles in old building foundations suddenly became ‘wetlands’ and ‘waters of the US’.

Invasion of Illegals –

In the confused jumble of words from biden speaking on the border crisis, he appears to be looking at reinstating rules set down by Trump that he reversed shortly after taking office.

Biden / Harris watch –

President Biden let it be known first thing yesterday morning that he would visit El Paso this coming Sunday. This is something that his designated border problem solver – harris – refuses to do.

“[S]ince August of last year, Customs and Border Patrol [it’s Customs and Border Protection] have seized more than 20,000 pounds of deadly fentanyl,” President Joe Biden said. “That’s enough to kill — kill as many as 1,000 people in this country. Twenty thousand pounds of fentanyl. It’s a killer. It’s a flat killer,” Biden said.

Biden is headed to Mexico City this weekend for Sunday’s North American Leaders Summit

OBSERVATION – Mexican state of Sinaloa erupted into near war yesterday with the arrest of Ovidio Guzman, Sinaloa Cartel leader and son of the notorious “El Chapo” Guzman. There is a significant chance that the cartel will attempt to disrupt this summit and even attempt to assassinate participants.

POLITICAL FRONT –

After failing to be elected after 11 votes, there are reports that the house republicans will “participate” in a conference call regarding another so called plan of reconciliation to get the votes needed for McCarthy elected speaker. There is not much optimism.

OBSERVATION – The conservatives want things in writing – not just his ‘word’. Further, the conference call format can control input of all parties involved.

As the standoff continues, more background on McCarthy is coming out. Rep. Kevin McCarthy revealed he had “dinner” with billionaire Klaus Schwab at the World Economic Forum in 2018 during remarks he made on a panel with Mitch McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, a shipping heiress of Chinese descent.
McCarthy attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in 2018, the same year 45th President Donald Trump spoke to the elite group of wealthy businessmen, politicians, and journalists.
McCarthy is publicly listed as a member of the World Economic Forum on its website and the Internet archive suggests he has been affiliated with the elite body since at least January of 2016.

OBSERVATION – another WEF plant? Perhaps Rep Crenshaw could enlighten us further.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has threatened to resign if the Republican party will negotiate with Democrats in voting to elect Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker. Gaetz announced his intentions to resign from Congress in an interview on Fox News Channel’s “The Ingraham Angle” Thursday night if he and other GOP patriots continued to refuse to back Kevin McCarthy’s speakership campaign.

OBSERVATION – kinda a stupid remark, I can see democrats crossing over just to get the mushy republican McCarthy elected and get Gaetz out of congress – a win, win for them.

China –

WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.

I’ve encountered no new indicators/contraindicators to report.

The U.S. Navy continued its Freedom of Navigation operations (FONOPS) in the Taiwan Straits Thursday. The Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer U.S.S. Chung-Hoon carried out the transit.

OBSERVATION – This is a relatively routine action but one that raises the hackles of China as it claims the strait in its entirety to be Chinese domain.

According to a Bloomberg report coming out of Taiwan, the government in Taipei is concerned over recent discoveries of Chinese spy rings inside Taiwan’s military. So far, Taiwan has detained three active-duty military officers and a retired air force officer on charges of espionage. A Colonel in charge of the Taiwanese military’s infantry training school was arrested late last year after authorities found documents indicating he had pledged to surrender his military unit when China invaded Taiwan. The spying problem is reportedly affecting the highest levels of Taiwan’s military and includes its former Vice Defense Minister. (FO)

OBSERVATON – Chinese infiltration into key operations, not just military, has been standard practice for many decades now. However, uncovering spies/collaborators in Taiwan’s military is hypercritical particularly since it is facing potential actions to force the island to surrender in the near future.

Japan –

During a press conference yesterday, a Defense Department spokesman said that Japan is the “cornerstone of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.”

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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A temporary unilateral Russian ceasefire ordered by Putin during Orthodox Christmas was due to have taken effect in Ukraine at 0900 GMT on Friday till 2100 GMT on Saturday. His announcement was not widely received favorably by either Ukraine who dismissed it as an empty gesture and an attempt to gain time to regroup its force and Russian milbloggers/nationalists who decried it as giving Ukraine time to resupply and reinforce defenses in Bakhmut and other objectives in the Donbas region.
There is further speculation that Russia will renege on the cease fire and continue attacks.
NOTE – Part of the putin narrative is that he is the champion of Christianity in Ukraine (and the rest of the world) – trying to build support for one of the reasons for the invasion.

RUMINT-
A Russian war analyst and reputed former loyalist to Vladimir Putin says that the fight to overthrow the Russian dictator has already started. Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has essentially begun publicly arguing for power, Strelkov says, while Sergei Shoigu and his clique work more quietly to compete.

The fight at the top of the Kremlin focuses on insurgent Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner private army, and loyalist forces in the defence ministry around weakening defence minister Sergei Shoigu, according to Strelkov.

Others believe security apparatchiks around ex-FSB head Nikolai Patrushev – secretary of the powerful security council – are more likely to pull the trigger on Putin in a bid to save the elite ruling circle if the war continues to go wrong.
Some claim the security bloc is lining up his son Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev as the frontman for a coup replacing Putin if he is forced out by war setbacks or ill health.

‘The grouping of Yevgeny Prigozhin [head of Wagner private army] stands against grouping which includes Sergei Shoigu [Russian defence minister],’ said Strelkov, real name Igor Girkin, former defence minister of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic.

Prigozhin/Shoigu feud is not new. When it became clear that Russian commanders had proven incompetent and military preparation a myth in the first weeks of the war, Shoigu reportedly was on his way out. Clearly, his base of power in the Kremlin is stronger than first thought, but his performance is every bit as bad as it has been all along.

OBSERVATION – A coup or death of putin will definitely put the current war in Ukraine into a different realm. Neither result would be good as some of the contenders are super war hawk/nationalist who could very well use nukes that putin has so far been holding back.

Kerch Bridge update – The Crimean bridge was struck almost three months ago and satellite imagery shows that workers are still repairing the damage.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing. However, due to heat retention by soils, it will take a prolonged sub-freezing period to render the soils frozen enough for maneuver by tanks/armor.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More of the same, scattered artillery fire along the LOC in the south and east along with the daily Russian ground assaults along the Kreminna – Donetsk portion of the line.

There is no evidence that Ukraine will honor the Russian declared unilateral ceasefire during the Orthodox Christmas period.

US announced that that 50 US Bradley fighting vehicles will be delivered to Ukraine and troops trained in how to use them. Includes hundreds of TOW rounds. This along with other modern Western armored vehicles / tanks that are being sent instead of left over Russian designed vehicles left over from the cold war. Germany will provide Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine️. Germany also join the U.S. in supplying an additional Patriot air defense battery

OUTLOOK ——
A continuation of the current status quo. If rumblings from Russian milbloggers is true, Russian has been losing ground in the Bakhmut area and the Russian offensive there is petering out.

The unilateral ceasefire by putin is worth monitoring to see if he keeps his word or launches more attacks. Ukraine OTOH, may be able to seize the moment if Russia foolishly clusters troops together for ‘celebrations’ and Mr HIMARS pay a visit.

Belarus -

A Defense Department spokesman said yesterday that the DOD is seeing “no indications” that Russia intends to use forces stationed in the joint Belarus-Russia battlegroup in another front in the Ukraine war.

Russia is shipping some equipment into Belarus with at least 50 more units of Russian military equipment were transferred to Belarus from Russia in recent days.

Belarusian MoD reported that another echelon with military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces had arrived in Belarus. Many trucks are marked with the identification symbol “Z”. included about 43 KamAZ and Ural trucks, BAZ-6306, 5 fuel trucks, 2 ZU-23-2, field kitchens and water barrels. One of the vehicles had license plates with the 44th region of Russia – the Western Military District.

OBSERVATION – The equipment shipped have mostly been cargo trucks and the like. Very little in the way of tanks or APCs. Russia has the capability to fall in on existing Belarus equipment, provided they allow it. But the items being brought in are no where near the same as was deployed there a year ago in advance of the start of the war.

Belarusian border guards accuse Ukraine of provocative actions on the border, saying Ukrainians behave aggressively, pointing guns at them and verbally insults them.

Israel –

The United States is expected to join other countries condemning Israel at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting Thursday that is convening to discuss the brief visit of a Jewish minister to the Temple Mount earlier this week.

RELATED - Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) on Wednesday attacked the Biden administration’s “pathological obsession” with undermining Israel was endangering U.S. national security, following the U.S.’ condemnation of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s visit to the Temple Mount. The Biden administration has “consistently sought to undermine Israel’s security and sovereignty over its territory,”

OBSERVATION – More evidence that the biden regime is moving towards positions against Israel, moves that may force it to consider taking actions on its own without Washington support.

Iran –

Iranian regime officials and entities are endorsing an expansive, collective-punishment model to implement mandatory veiling laws as anti-regime demonstrations enter their fourth consecutive month in Iran.

Mexico -

Culiacán Mexico was described as a war zone yesterday following the arrest of Ovidio Guzman, son of el Chapo. Sinaloa Cartel sicarios almost immediately began blocking roads into Culiacán and launched an assault on the airport in an effort try to free him from custody. Mexico reaponsed by deploying military forces to the region and even used helicopter gun ships to battle the sicarios. Releated fighting besides in Culiacan broke out in Mazatlán, Navolato, Badiraguato and Los Mochis. Nayarit, Sinaloa reporting sicarios blockade as well.

This morning the Mexican military reported 10 mexican military dead and 35 injured. 19 cartel sicarios dead. These numbers will likely rise. Sporatic fighting was still being reported.

During yesterday’s battle in Culiacán, there was total anarchy with widespread looting seen across the city.

OBSERVATION – Sinaloa province is a narrow strip of land along the gulf of Baja. Ovidio Guzman has been wanted for quite some time. I’ve not seen any reports on his current whereabouts, some suspect he has been extradited to the US. This is the kind of stuff that awaits the US and the control over the border breaks down.

ALSO NOTE- Sunday’s North American Leaders Summit could be at risk of an attack of some sort.

Black Swans -

A major solar flare measuring X1.2 at its peak erupted from Active Region 3182 at 00:57 UTC on January 6, 2023. This sunspot group just came around the edge of the sun and hasn’t yet positioned itself for a direct shot at earth. It will be in position in the coming days. A X1.2 is a big flare/CME, but I look at things in the X15 range and above. X15 shut down the Quebec power grid a several of decades ago and the famous Carrington event was something like an X45. Eyes are monitoring this closely.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Regulators advised banks and other financial institutions to avoid cryptocurrencies, a warning that comes after the implosion of digital asset company FTX and deliberations over a possible central bank digital currency in the United States.

A joint statement from the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currencysaid that the nascent sector is characterized by “significant volatility” and possible fraud, warning executives of scams, legal uncertainties, and contagion between firms rocked by recent tumult in cryptocurrency markets.

OBSERVATION – Crypto has to be killed as an alternative currency so that the WEF approved digital currency and be introduced and take over. The turbulence over the past year and in specific, the FTX scandal most likely reflect WEF insider work to discredit and destabilize crypto in advance of CBDC.

Wuhan virus –

See China - wuhan breakout below.

People who suffered from myocarditis after receiving an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine were found to have persistently higher levels of circulating spike protein compared to those who also received an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine but did not develop myocarditis, according to findings from a new study.
The study, published Jan. 4 in the Journal of the American Heart Association, sought to understand better the immune profiles—also referred to as immunoprofiles—of people who suffered from myocarditis after receiving an mRNA-based vaccine.

The researchers flagged what they called a “notable finding,” which was that “markedly elevated levels of full-length spike protein (33.9±22.4 pg/mL), unbound by antibodies, were detected in the plasma of individuals with postvaccine myocarditis, whereas no free spike was detected in asymptomatic vaccinated control subjects (unpaired t test; P<0.0001).”

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.061025

OBSERVATION – More evidence that the jabs are dangerous and should have been vetted more thoroughly.

Economy –

The UN’S Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 143.7 points in 2022, up 14.3 percent from 2021, and the highest since records started in 1990, the agency said on Friday.
The index had already gained 28 percent in 2021 from the previous year as the world economy recovered from the impact of the pandemic.

OBSERVATION – They expect prices to continue to remain high due to significant market disruptions, adverse weather, high fertilizer and fuel costs in addition to growing demand.

Southern California residents, get ready for a severe case of sticker shock as your natural gas bills across the region soar more than double this winter, according to the region’s two chief utility companies.
Southern California Gas Company — a subsidiary of Sempra Energy that serves more than 21.8 million customers in Central and Southern California — along with Long Beach Utilities, the city’s independent gas provider, recently warned customers to prepare for unavoidable increases in their gas bills this month.

“There’s no easy way to put this: January bills are likely to be shockingly high,” SoCalGas said in a Thursday, Dec. 29 announcement. “As a result, our customers can expect to see higher gas bills in the coming weeks.”
Long Beach Utilities put out a similar statement on Wednesday, Jan. 4.
SoCalGas rates are expected to more than double over the cost of last winter. If a customer’s natural gas bill totaled $130 last winter, for example, that household can expect a $315 bill this winter, according to the gas company. And the average Long Beach single-family residential customer should prepare for an increase of $200 or more on their bill, that city’s utility said.

OBSERVATION – Kalifornia has natural gas reserves but refuses to allow them to be developed. This is a scenario that is playing out all across the country. People will be screaming about how high their bills are and how evil the utilities are – but they are having to deal with economic realities while the customer is directing their anger towards the wrong entity.

One other note – the economic ignorance is not just limited to kalifornia. Last month here in my corner of the Redoubt people were crying over how much more their utility bills were. They didn’t have the common sense to read the bill, look at just how much energy (Kwh and therms) they used in comparison to the average temperature for the billing period. Use twice the amount – your bill will double.

Reversing recent declines, the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work increased slightly to 62.3 percent in December, up one-tenth of a point from November, and four basis points higher than the 61.9 percent in December 2021.

In its final report for 2022, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics counted a record 159,244,000 employed Americans in December, an increase of 717,000 from last month’s 158,527,000 (revised number); and the number of Americans counted as not in the labor force dropped below the hundred million level to 99,879,000.

The unemployment rate has remained in the 3.5-3.7 percent range since March.

OBSERVATION – The labor market is one of the factors the Fed uses to see if their prime rate increases are working or not. This report seems to indicate that the rate increases are not working, given that the Fed is anticipating a move towards unemployment in the 5% range. This increases the likelihood of more rate increases in the coming months.

IMHO, the increase in the labor force may well reflect the impact of inflation, drawing many back into the job market by necessity.

Invasion of Illegals –

On Thursday, the president announced he was expanding a “legal immigration” plan including using an existing parole system to allow an additional 360,000 illegal foreign nationals to be released into the United States. Biden announced that part of his plan to expand “safe, orderly, and humane processing” for illegal foreign nationals included expanding a federal parole system to allow an additional 30,000 people a month to remain in the U.S. from Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba and Nicaragua – 360,000 in total for the year.

Biden made the announcement after a record 68,044 Cubans and Nicaraguans and 6,232 Venezuelans were apprehended in November illegally entering the U.S., according to CBP data; and after more than 600,000 foreign nationals from all over the world were apprehended or evaded capture in November and December 2022 combined, and a record 3.3 million were apprehended in fiscal 2022.

The change is already being challenged in court by a lawsuit brought by Florida, arguing the administration’s abuse of it is illegal. Moody argues the administration’s misuse of the parole system is unconstitutional and violates federal law established by Congress. The majority of people being released into the U.S. by the Biden administration don’t have a legal basis under current asylum law, the practice doesn’t comply with mandatory detention laws and is illegal, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody maintains.

OBSERVATION – So typical of the democrat regime, seeking cracks and loopholes to continue to press their agenda. Biden et al knows this will be tied up in courts for years to come and even a restraining order(s) will be ignored by rephrasing some of the EOs.

CW2/Domestic violence –

A new California gun law allowing private citizens to sue manufacturers and retailers for selling banned firearms went into effect this year.
California’s new regulations give private citizens the ability to sue anyone who imports, distributes, manufactures, or sells assault firearms, homemade weapons, ghost guns, or .50 BMP rifles. The law, Senate Bill (SB) 1327, also restricts the sale of firearms to anyone under 21 years old.

These restrictions are already enforced by California; however, this new law allows citizens to sue violators for at least $10,000.
This is modeled after the Texas Heartbeat Act which allows private citizens to sue anyone involved in providing abortions after a doctor has detected a fetal heartbeat. In that law, citizens can file lawsuits against doctors, clinics, or anyone involved in the abortion.

OBSERVATION – Another angle of attack against Second Amendment rights. Tyrants cannot execute full control of their agenda as long as the citizenry is armed.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The first season’s congressional soap opera saw McCarthy finally getting the votes necessary to be elected to the Speakership on the 15th attempt. McCarthy got 216 votes, a bare majority that was lower than the normal 218 votes needed because all six of his remaining GOP opponents relented and voted “present.”

OBSERVATION – This promises to be only the first battle between the conservative caucus and the more moderate (some say drifting left of center) eGOP. Some good concessions were forced out of McCarthy – and done in writing. If this standoff hadn’t been initiated, it would have been business as usual with little difference between the Marxist democrat control and the incoming eGOP.

Cyber Warfare –

Word is just coming out about a Russian hacker group called Cold River who targeted three different nuclear research labs in the United States between the months of August and September of 2022. During the months the attacks were carried out, Russian President Vladimir Putin had been voicing Russia’s willingness to use nuclear weapons in response to threats to its territory.

The three nuclear research labs that were targeted were: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) according to a Reuters Report citing internet records.

The internet records that Reuters cited showed login pages that had been faked for each laboratory, as well as emails from hackers sent to nuclear scientists at each location attempting to get them to disclose their login passwords.

OBSERVATION - These Russian groups operated with the tacit approval of the Russian govt, much like Wagner Group does.

China –

Contraindicator –
Continues to be the wuhan infection situation. Impact to the civilian population has to be hitting the military equally hard. However, this doesn’t necessarly stop the initiation of a ‘soft blockaide’, but does challenge a stronger action as the national leadership is having to address the wuhan problem – read more below.

Chinese government claims fewer than two dozen people have died nationwide during the massive coronavirus outbreak sweeping the country, but the true number is believed to be in the thousands and could be heading into the millions. Increasing numbers of countries around the world are instituting travel restrictions on individuals from China.

Going along with this are other reports that with crematoriums overwhelmed with the dead, ome families are resorting to amateur cremations in the streets.

OBSERVATION – China holds close its actual numbers, but the death toll is most likely much larger than a couple dozen.

Now, does this pose a threat to the US as the initial breakout of wuhan from China did? Too early to tell. Given a 1 billion population and an estimated 50-70% currently infected, even a small percentage of mortalities adds up to a lot of people. Not enough information at this time to tell if this is the start of a new plandemic that the medical community and govt tyrannists have been clamoring for.

Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban signed their first international agreement with a Chinese petroleum company Thursday to extract and develop oil reserves in the country’s north

OBSERVATION – China is aggressively working to secure oil, gas and coal supplies that can bypass any potential sanctions at a bargan basement price. This is part of their long term, strategic plan to ensure energy supply.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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A temporary unilateral Russian ceasefire ordered by Putin during Orthodox Christmas has not even remotely been held by Russia, as fighting has continued in eastern Ukraine.

Economic Impact – Putin’s recently released plan to update the Russian army in the face of its awful debut in Ukraine is expected to far exceed the nation’s economic capability to accomplish it in the time frame laid out by putin.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No sign of a ‘cease fire’ as scattered artillery and Russian ground attacks continued along the Donbas front. Many didn’t expect Russia to execute the ceasefire anyway, given its track record of saying one thing and doing another.
Only other thing of note was increased Russian shelling along the border north - northeast of Khariv. Activity here has been sporadic over the past couple months.

Fighting around Kreminna has reportedly intensified in forested areas surrounding the city. Both sides working hard to call in and adjust artillery fire, having to rely heavily on drones to adjust fire.

OUTLOOK ——
Need I say it ? No significant changes on the ground are expected in the near future. Incoming packages of modern western armor and tanks are anticipated to have some impacts for Ukraine, but there is a time delay due to training necessary. It is uncertain if the equipment and associated troops will be tactically ready in time for the anticipated start of the potential winter offensive in the next few weeks. It is unlikely that Ukraine will hold off that offensive based on waiting for this equipment to be available, they have done quite well with the Soviet style systems and modern artillery they’ve been provided so far.

Belarus-watch continues, and so far the concensus is that the current rounds of training between Belarus and Russian forces have helped Belarus’ defensive capabilities. However, being able to operate offensively in the medium to high intensity environment that is Ukraine is still far from being obtained.
Russian / Belarus troop movements still seem to be more focused on the southwestern corner of the nation versus the assembly areas necessary for a second push towards Kyiv. Trainloads of equipment continue to be primarily support type vehicles, and limited armor/tanks. Nothing close to what was observed in the build up to the start of war last February.

Belarus -

See Ukraine Outlook above for assessment.

Iran –

Iran executed two more people for participating in protests. In doing so, they are creating more martyrs and refueling the protests.

Iraq -

The Iraqi supreme court has issued an arrest warrant for former U.S. President Donald Trump for the assassination on Iraqi soil of Iran’s Quds Force commander, Qasem Soleimani, Iraqi News reports, citing a Baghdad news agency.

The warrant was issued on Thursday in connection both with the killing of Soleimani and of another Iraqi militia leader, chief of staff of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq–both of whom were killed in a drone strike in January 2020 near the Baghdad airport. That assassination operation led to Iranian strikes on the Aia Al-Assad U.S. base in Iraq.

The arrest warrant charges Trump with premeditated murder. While the warrant is clearly symbolic, a conviction of this nature carries the death penalty.

OBSERVATION – These courts are slanted strongly in favor of Iran, which recently held ceremonies of remembrance for Soleimani.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

See oil deal with China above

Mexico -

The situation is still tense in Culiacan following the capture/arrest of the infamous gang kingpin El Chapo‘s son Ovidio. El Chapo is currently serving life in prison in the US for trafficking hundreds of tons of drugs into the United States over a 25-year period.

Mexican courts have put a temporary halt to his extradition to the US pending his appeal. Violence continues in other cities in the region. Overall, however, it appears that govt forces have the upper hand.

OBSERVATION – I would avoid Mexico at all costs.