Economy –
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released updated food inflation forecasts, with all food expected to increase 7.5% with a window between 5.5% and 9.6%. Some foods are expected to increase more, with fats and oils at the highest with a 15.4% increase. Meanwhile, beef and pork are expected to disinflate slightly.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden after 6 people dead in Nashville shooting of private Christian school:
“My name is Joe Biden. I’m Dr. Jill Biden’s husband. And I ate Jeni’s ice cream. Chocolate chip. I came down because I heard there was chocolate chip ice cream. I have a whole refrigerator full upstairs.”
OBSERVATION – Fox new cut to this as a pending commentary on the Tennessee shootings but didn’t cut back away soon enough before this was transmitted across the network live. This is unbelievable tone deafness regarding the attack and were a republican to do such would have generated instant calls for folks to rise up with pitchforks and torches.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The “Culture Wars” are turning hot and we better enhance our situational awareness.
I’ve warned that the leftists are looking to ramp up their violence as summer approaches. Actions over the last 24 hours point to leftists taking the talking points of the ‘influencers’ seriously.
Radical transgender groups have been calling for violence across the country for several months now, with a crescendo call the past few weeks.
The deceased mass shooter of the Christian school in Nashville has been identified as trans person Audrey E. Hale. Authorities believe the transgender shooter previously attended the Christian school Three children & three staff were murdered. The shooting comes amid a surge in far-left death threats in Tennessee over the state banning the medical transitioning of minors. and a search of the family home in Nashville revealed detailed maps and a manifesto of the attack.
According to police, she intentionally targeted a religious elementary school for mass murder. Hale apparently planned the attack carefully, and left behind a “manifesto.” We’ll have to wait to see if the manifesto is made public. This school was a secondary target as the first school had too much security.
This attack falls on the heels of Tennessee passing a bill outlawing gender transition ‘treatment’ of children. It also falls in line with increasing threats by transgender radicals to fight back with violence. For example, the Antifa group organizing the “Trans Day of Vengeance” outside the Supreme Court on April 1 outside the Supreme Court has locked down its Twitter account following the deadly mass shooting on a Christian school in Nashville by a trans shooter.
A popular sign/tee shirt design features the words “Trans Rights” on top, then four different style of rifles then the words “Or Else”.
Violence associated with the radical transgender activists have been noted here in my posts. To date, most violence has been directed against Feminist and anti-grooming meetings/marches. These violent transgenderists are usually flanked by supporting Antifa elements – providing muscle and helping direct violent activities.
Further violence advocated by these transgenderists include calls to arm up all across the interwebs to respond to what they call a ‘genocide’ directed against them.
The violence by the Trans activists are not limited to the US, but is a global phenomena. Just a few days ago in New Zealand, activist Posie Parker, who was attempting to give a speech in defense of traditional womanhood, was assaulted by a transmob. Similar in Britain as well.
Also within the broader framework of the left’s violent agenda are the statements by many that murder of opponents is all ok and right to do. One high visibility case was Jane Fonda’s recent appearance on “the View” where she openly and plainly advocated murder of opponents. Many, many others throughout the various social media platforms are advocating the same. One such example is a Wayne State University suspends professor for suggesting that conservatives be killed.
English Professor Steven Shaviro criticized students who shout down and intimidate conservative speakers who come to campus.
It only encourages them. He insisted it was better to kill them off. This is what young skulls full of mush are being force fed.
The shockingly sudden rise of violent transgenderism, beginning with ‘reading stories’ to children, morphing to the putrid ‘drag shows’ and now is morphing to direct violence and murder on such a short time frame – only a couple years – is concerning. The mental reasoning to commit murder and willingness of Antifa to support the cause is an uneasy indicator that they think violence will forward their cause and I expect more to come.
One last note on the shooter – MSM saying she had two AR-15 style rifles. Photos show only one AR-15 style platform. The other is a conversion where a lower from a semiautomatic handgun is attached to a rifle length upper – creating a pistol caliber rifle, in this case probably a 9mm.
**
The rise of violent transgenderism has started a split within the broader LGBT community with a move now to cut out the “T” community from the movement because it essentially by its ‘doctrine’ is counter the LGB elements and many LGB view the current trans-activism as betraying the greater community.
OBSERVATION – So not only is the left’s former golden child – radical feminism – being attacked by the new lefts transactivism, but the more recent golden child – homosexual rights are being attacked as well.
**
Monday multiple Georgia law enforcement agencies began clearing a park where left wing extremists associated with Stop Cop City have been. They have already found molotovs and nailed boards set as traps. They closed the park for this reason on Friday
OBSERVATION – I noted this closure last week. An indiscriminate threat to civilians.
IN related - The blog site for the StopCopCity Antifa terrorist network has published an ominous post with the alleged family home addresses & spouse information of the Dekalb County, Ga. judges overseeing the cases involving the Atlanta domestic terror suspects. The revenge post calls for comrades to give them a visit & pays homage to their deceased gunman, Manuel “Tort” Teran.
OBSERVATION – Same tactic as the doxing of LAPD members. They are targeting the families of law enforcement and any they see as an opposition to their cause. More of an indicator of impending directed violence.
**
Chairman of the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, is demanding answers from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Commissioner Daniel Werfel after the IRS deployed an unannounced visit to journalist Matt Taibbi’s home, following his testimony before the panel on the Twitter Files.
Jordan, on Monday, sent a letter to Yellen and Werfel demanding answers in regard to the timing and circumstances surrounding the raid on Taibbi’s home on March 9 — “the same day Mr. Taibbi testified before the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government about what he learned about Twitter,” The Wall Street Journal reported.
According to Jordan’s letter, Taibbi notified the congressman that the IRS instructed him to call the federal agency four days after his testimony before the government’s weaponization panel, at which point he was told that both his 2018 and 2021 tax filings were requested because of “concerns over identity theft.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/irs-matt-taibbi-weaponization/2023/03/27/id/1114031/
OBSERVATION – Intimidation is the order of the day by the regime towards anyone who speaks out against it. Remember, they want to add 87,000 new IRS agents – many to be assigned to swat style teams.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
According to the USNI, the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (CSG-12) recently completed its pre-deployment exercise. In early June, CSG-12 is expected to relieve the USS George H. W. Bush Carrier Strike Group (CSG-1) in the eastern Mediterranean.
OBSERVATION – The Ford will likely replace the Bush in the Med since the Bush has been on station for about a year in response to the Ukraine war. There will likely be a little overlap time as the Bush brings the Ford up to speed on the area of operations.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Speculation continues over the fate of the grand jury investigation of Trump. Will the Manhattan DA fish or cut bait?
North/South Korea –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was photographed inspecting a range of nuclear warheads at the Nuclear Weapons Research Institute, according to state media on Tuesday, urging increased production.
OBSERVATION – Many are skeptical (including myself) that these are actual warheads given how the ‘warheads’ were stored and the lack of evidence that NK has actually managed to miniaturize the warhead design to fit these devices. Secondly, given that NK is utilizing plutonium as the fission material, protection from radioactivity in the photos is also noticeably lacking. It is impossible to verify whether they are the real deal. Until North Korea tests one of these devices, we are left guessing.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
China has come out with sour statements against Russia moving tactical nukes into Belarus.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Lieutenant General Andrii Kuzmenko has been appointed temporary acting commander of the Russian Eastern Group after Muradov was dismissed.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with little change in territory.
Russia dug out some Iranian drones and managed to hit Kyiv and Dnipro overnight.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
Partisan Resistance ——
A vehicle belong to chief of occupational police in Mariupol was blown up overnight. Partisan activity has been on the increase lately in southern Ukraine.
OUTLOOK –
More of the same from past postings. Russia will continue to pressure around Bakhmut and Avdiivka but collapse of those defenses are not imminent.
Israel –
Israel remains on the edge of the abyss staring into the darkness.
Netanyahu yesterday - “I’m taking a time out in the legislation of the judicial reform. I decided to suspend the vote on 2nd & 3rd reading of the legislation in the current Knesset session, in order to try & reach an understanding on the legislation in the next Knesset session”
Netanyahu also said that there is an “extreme minority they is ready to tear the country to pieces and ignite a civil war”. Further called on all “demonstrators in Jerusalem, from the right and the left, to behave responsibly and not to act violently. We are brothers”
Netanyahu called on the heads of the security establishment to stop the refusals to serve due to the judicial plan
General strike in Israel called off following Netanyahu pausing the legislative reform.
Israel PM Netanyahu agrees to establish a “national guard” force that will be under the direct authority of Ben Gvir.
Pro-Government Protests in support of the Judicial Overhaul and Prime Minister Netanyahu are currently taking place in the Israeli Capital of Jerusalem. Anti – Govt protestors out now calling for a military coup against Netanyahu.
OBSERVATION - Netanyahu’s pulling the judicial reform measure has granted some space in the ongoing chaos. However, with pro-govt supporters now taking to the streets and the anti-govt protestors calling for a coup things can get spicy very quickly. Netanyahu’s approval of a “national guard” under Ben Gvir is of additional concern. Gvir is reportedly a hard right supporter and an organized ‘guard’ under his supervision dangerously splits the Israeli miliary and its loyality.
What could be more dangerous is if Iran and its proxies – Hamas and Hezbollah – were to strike during these massive protests, the ensuing chaos both among the people as well as the military would be potentially catastrophic.
Sour? Is China going to negotiate the end of this war? Triangulating?
FTFY
Globalism / Great Reset –
5,000 farmers are said to have taken part in a tractor rally in Slovenia in order to protest green agenda rules implemented by both national and EU officials in the country. Protests were inspired in part by the successful protests by farmers in the Netherlands.
Thousands of farmers across Slovenia reportedly took to the country’s streets in their tractors on Friday in order to protest various green agenda rules in place in the country.
The demo is reminiscent of similar events that are now regularly taking place in other EU countries, with farmers in Germany, Flanders and the Netherlands all having taken part in similar rallies protesting EU green rules.
According to a report by Euractiv, around 5,000 farmers are said to have taken part in the protest, which has largely been in response to recent ruling restricting the use of pesticides in certain areas over water pollution fears.
OBSERVATION – Under the banner of “No farms, No food”, these protests appear to be gaining traction from the local population of those countries. Definitiely a set back for the globalists.
Invasion of Illegals –
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas was roasted like a pig testifying before the senate yesterday. The sad thing is there will be nothing done to him for his deliberate sabotage of US border security.
Biden / Harris watch –
Vice President Kamala Harris stumbled over her words during a speech in Ghana Monday, serving up yet another word salad on the world stage.
“There are a number of things on the issue of the economy as a whole that we must do … and a lot of that work is the work that I am here to do on the continent,”
**
Video and mic capture of biden’s handler explaining to biden where to stand and how to walk up to that location.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Radical Transgenderism zone
Radical transgender activists, and their leftist allies and MSM doubled and tripled down in support of the gunwoman who attacked the Christian School in Tennessee, trying to deflect all blame onto republicans and those opposing the radical transgender agenda – especially the passing of laws to protect children from the drag show perverts and those pushing bodily mutilation of children. The examples are too numerous to note here, but in total were vile.
Second – the MSM continues to paint the whole violent trans movement as the real victims here – even while the calls continue for violence towards any opponents of their agenda.
Overall – there is a growing threat of violence by these radical transgenderists against people/organizations they perceive opposing their demonically inspired agenda. This includes feminists, center -right commentators, Christian churches and politicians. The violent components of these terrorists are deeply embedded into Antifa and Antifa has been a willing accomplice in many recent attacks on those speaking out against the trans agenda. The silence of the left and its resounding failure to condemn the violence promoted by these militant trans activists will only encourage further more violence because they will think they are untouochable.
**
“Hate has consequences.”
Radical trans activist group, the Trans Resistance Network, has released a statement mourning the death of the Nashville Christian school mass shooter. The statement says there were two tragedies, the murder of the children & school staff, & also that of Aubrey “Aiden” Hale, who it warns should not be misgendered. Ahead of the mass shooting, trans activists had urged “vengeance” against Tennessee & conservatives for banning the medical transitioning of children.
**
LGBTQ+ groups told Newsweek that publishing the manifesto from the perpetrator of Monday’s school shooting could have “serious consequences.” Nashville Police said it won’t make the manifesto public “during an open investigation.”
**
HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra on Tuesday defended President Biden’s intention to use federal funds through the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) to pay for sex changes for children.
The secretary said that “everyone in America” should have “access to the health care that they need, whether you’re a child or adult.”
**
Researchers at the Department of Defense (DOD) have recommended that servicemen’s children as young as seven should have access to expanded gender transition treatments.
In the latest issue of the American Journal of Public Health, the piece titled “Caring for Military-Affiliated Transgender and Gender-Diverse Youths: A Call for Protections” argued that legislative efforts in states have created a “gender-affirming care crisis” for minors by restricting medical treatments.
According to a study in JAMA Pediatrics, a monthly peer-reviewed medical journal published by the American Medical Association, at least 2,500 children actively sought gender dysphoria services through Pentagon’s insurance plan, Tricare, after it began covering puberty suppression and cross-sex hormone treatment in 2017.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-03-27-pentagon-researchers-gender-affirming-care-military-kids.html
**
The new Tiktok bill, known as the RESTRICT Act, has recently been exposed to contain numerous back doors that will enable the regime to punish opposing views on the internet by declaring the posters as being “foreign adversaries”, subjecting them to 20 years in prison and a million dollar fine.
Any one surprised that the democrats are very supportive of this bill?
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
No decisions from NYC as the grand jury will not be meeting this week to address the Trump material.
**
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stated on Tuesday that there has been “no progress” in the debt ceiling talks between House Republicans and the Biden administration.
China –
Senior U.S. official: China should not “overreact” and use Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s trip to the United States as a “pretext” for aggression against the island, according to AFP.
Japan –
Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S. are in talks to develop a trilateral security framework for the East and South China Sea region. The first discussions among principals are expected to take place in April with the goal of forging closer ties between Japan and the Philippines. The new security framework will focus on boosting deterrence against China and preparing for a potential crisis over Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
US has informed Russia that it will no longer exchange data on its strategic nuclear forces following Moscow’s decision to suspend its participation in the New START treaty cutting long-range arms: WSJ
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting intensified overnight around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with some gains by Russia.
Russian artillery strikes intensified along the Kharkiv Oblast-Russian border region.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
More of the same from past postings. Russia continues to make incremental gains in Bakhmut and Avdiivka but at a high cost of Russian lives and material. Ukrainan forces are feeling increased losses too, but it appears that the ratio of Russia to Ukraine losses is still favorable enough to cause Ukraine to continue their economy of force mobile defense of these cities as they muster the forces for an expected counter offensive later this spring.
Even if Russia can successfully (pyrrically) capture those towns, they lack sufficient forces to exploit the “win” to necessary to capture the Donbas region.
Israel –
Israel remains on the edge of the abyss staring into the darkness. Protests have calmed down significantly, likely due to the pull back by Netanyahu of the judicial reform package and called for renewed negotiations on the package.
**
The establishment of a national guard force in Israel would sabotage efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, Palestinian officials warned on Wednesday.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir reached an agreement on the force, which is expected to be approved by the Cabinet next week.
The new force will focus on fighting criminal organizations, especially in the Israeli-Arab sector, a spokesman for the National Security Minister said on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION – Looking further into the details of the mission of this ‘national guard’. It definitely hit a Palestinian nerve.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
WAR WATCH
Assassination was attempted on Azerbaijani MP Fazil Mustafa at his residence in Baku city. The MP was shot multiple times and is known for his strong stance against the Iranian government. He was lightly wounded in the attack.
Globalism / Great Reset –
5,000 farmers are said to have taken part in a tractor rally in Slovenia in order to protest green agenda rules implemented by both national and EU officials in the country. Protests were inspired in part by the successful protests by farmers in the Netherlands.
Thousands of farmers across Slovenia reportedly took to the country’s streets in their tractors on Friday in order to protest various green agenda rules in place in the country.
The demo is reminiscent of similar events that are now regularly taking place in other EU countries, with farmers in Germany, Flanders and the Netherlands all having taken part in similar rallies protesting EU green rules.
According to a report by Euractiv, around 5,000 farmers are said to have taken part in the protest, which has largely been in response to recent ruling restricting the use of pesticides in certain areas over water pollution fears.
OBSERVATION – Under the banner of “No farms, No food”, these protests appear to be gaining traction from the local population of those countries. Definitiely a set back for the globalists.
Invasion of Illegals –
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas was roasted like a pig testifying before the senate yesterday. The sad thing is there will be nothing done to him for his deliberate sabotage of US border security.
Biden / Harris watch –
Vice President Kamala Harris stumbled over her words during a speech in Ghana Monday, serving up yet another word salad on the world stage.
“There are a number of things on the issue of the economy as a whole that we must do … and a lot of that work is the work that I am here to do on the continent,”
**
Video and mic capture of biden’s handler explaining to biden where to stand and how to walk up to that location.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Radical Transgenderism zone
Radical transgender activists, and their leftist allies and MSM doubled and tripled down in support of the gunwoman who attacked the Christian School in Tennessee, trying to deflect all blame onto republicans and those opposing the radical transgender agenda – especially the passing of laws to protect children from the drag show perverts and those pushing bodily mutilation of children. The examples are too numerous to note here, but in total were vile.
Second – the MSM continues to paint the whole violent trans movement as the real victims here – even while the calls continue for violence towards any opponents of their agenda.
Overall – there is a growing threat of violence by these radical transgenderists against people/organizations they perceive opposing their demonically inspired agenda. This includes feminists, center -right commentators, Christian churches and politicians. The violent components of these terrorists are deeply embedded into Antifa and Antifa has been a willing accomplice in many recent attacks on those speaking out against the trans agenda. The silence of the left and its resounding failure to condemn the violence promoted by these militant trans activists will only encourage further more violence because they will think they are untouochable.
**
“Hate has consequences.”
Radical trans activist group, the Trans Resistance Network, has released a statement mourning the death of the Nashville Christian school mass shooter. The statement says there were two tragedies, the murder of the children & school staff, & also that of Aubrey “Aiden” Hale, who it warns should not be misgendered. Ahead of the mass shooting, trans activists had urged “vengeance” against Tennessee & conservatives for banning the medical transitioning of children.
**
LGBTQ+ groups told Newsweek that publishing the manifesto from the perpetrator of Monday’s school shooting could have “serious consequences.” Nashville Police said it won’t make the manifesto public “during an open investigation.”
**
HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra on Tuesday defended President Biden’s intention to use federal funds through the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) to pay for sex changes for children.
The secretary said that “everyone in America” should have “access to the health care that they need, whether you’re a child or adult.”
**
Researchers at the Department of Defense (DOD) have recommended that servicemen’s children as young as seven should have access to expanded gender transition treatments.
In the latest issue of the American Journal of Public Health, the piece titled “Caring for Military-Affiliated Transgender and Gender-Diverse Youths: A Call for Protections” argued that legislative efforts in states have created a “gender-affirming care crisis” for minors by restricting medical treatments.
According to a study in JAMA Pediatrics, a monthly peer-reviewed medical journal published by the American Medical Association, at least 2,500 children actively sought gender dysphoria services through Pentagon’s insurance plan, Tricare, after it began covering puberty suppression and cross-sex hormone treatment in 2017.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-03-27-pentagon-researchers-gender-affirming-care-military-kids.html
**
The new Tiktok bill, known as the RESTRICT Act, has recently been exposed to contain numerous back doors that will enable the regime to punish opposing views on the internet by declaring the posters as being “foreign adversaries”, subjecting them to 20 years in prison and a million dollar fine.
Any one surprised that the democrats are very supportive of this bill?
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Situational awareness as Ramadan continues.
POLITICAL FRONT –
No decisions from NYC as the grand jury will not be meeting this week to address the Trump material.
**
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stated on Tuesday that there has been “no progress” in the debt ceiling talks between House Republicans and the Biden administration.
China –
Senior U.S. official: China should not “overreact” and use Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s trip to the United States as a “pretext” for aggression against the island, according to AFP.
Japan –
Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S. are in talks to develop a trilateral security framework for the East and South China Sea region. The first discussions among principals are expected to take place in April with the goal of forging closer ties between Japan and the Philippines. The new security framework will focus on boosting deterrence against China and preparing for a potential crisis over Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
US has informed Russia that it will no longer exchange data on its strategic nuclear forces following Moscow’s decision to suspend its participation in the New START treaty cutting long-range arms: WSJ
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting intensified overnight around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with some gains by Russia.
Russian artillery strikes intensified along the Kharkiv Oblast-Russian border region.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
More of the same from past postings. Russia continues to make incremental gains in Bakhmut and Avdiivka but at a high cost of Russian lives and material. Ukrainan forces are feeling increased losses too, but it appears that the ratio of Russia to Ukraine losses is still favorable enough to cause Ukraine to continue their economy of force mobile defense of these cities as they muster the forces for an expected counter offensive later this spring.
Even if Russia can successfully (pyrrically) capture those towns, they lack sufficient forces to exploit the “win” to necessary to capture the Donbas region.
Israel –
Israel remains on the edge of the abyss staring into the darkness. Protests have calmed down significantly, likely due to the pull back by Netanyahu of the judicial reform package and called for renewed negotiations on the package.
**
The establishment of a national guard force in Israel would sabotage efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, Palestinian officials warned on Wednesday.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir reached an agreement on the force, which is expected to be approved by the Cabinet next week.
The new force will focus on fighting criminal organizations, especially in the Israeli-Arab sector, a spokesman for the National Security Minister said on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION – Looking further into the details of the mission of this ‘national guard’. It definitely hit a Palestinian nerve.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
WAR WATCH
Assassination was attempted on Azerbaijani MP Fazil Mustafa at his residence in Baku city. The MP was shot multiple times and is known for his strong stance against the Iranian government. He was lightly wounded in the attack.