Viewing in speculation the forecast of upwards of 8 inches of snow early next week. Weather here in the Redoubt can change a half dozen times between now and then.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Studies show that Elon Musk’s new tech can bend your mind in strange and troubling ways.
Musk’s company is far from the only group working on brain-computer interfaces, or systems to facilitate direct communication between human brains and external computers. Other researchers have been looking into using BCIs to restore lost senses and control prosthetic limbs, among other applications. While these technologies are still in their infancy, they’ve been around long enough for researchers to increasingly get a sense of how neural implants interact with our minds. As Anna Wexler, an assistant professor of philosophy in the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy at the University of Pennsylvania, put it: “Of course it causes changes. The question is what kinds of changes does it cause, and how much do those changes matter?”
OBSERVATION – link describes some initial review of how a person’s perception of reality have changed after receiving an implant. That which has a chance to cause good is in reality moving towards a more evil application.
**
Speaking of AI, last week, Microsoft announced the new AI-powered Bing: a search interface that incorporates a language model powered chatbot that can run searches for you and summarize the results, plus do all of the other fun things that engines like GPT-3 and ChatGPT have been demonstrating over the past few months: the ability to generate poetry, and jokes, and do creative writing, and so much more.
I’m not sure how valid the exchanges that the following link claims were made with “bing” but the computer responses are unnerving.
https://simonwillison.net/2023/Feb/15/bing/
Wuhan virus –
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky suggested during congressional testimony Tuesday that the organisation will never change its policy on masking for children, despite multiple studies showing that the face coverings do nothing to stop the spread of COVID.
During a hearing in the House on the government’s response to the pandemic, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers asked Walensky if the CDC is going to consider revising its guidance on masking in schools (which is still happening in many areas of the country) in the wake of perhaps the most extensive study yet confirming that masks are not effective.
OBSERVATION - Its all about power, not the disease.
**
More on the medical tracking code instituted by the CDC to identify those who’ve not been vaccinated. Apparently this was/is being integrated into the WHOs efforts to track the unjabbed as part of its efforts to mandate a global vaccination ‘passport’.
**
Cedars Sinai hospital is reporting that 30% more young people are dying from heart attacks than before the pandemic.
The rise in heart attacks is so striking because the demographic it has hit is shocking: people from 25-44 years old. People in this age group are not generally known for dropping like flies from heart disease.
CBS News claims the heart attack deaths in younger folks (age 25-44) are 30% higher than average over the past two years blaming on anti-maskers and the unvaxxed.
OBSERVATION – Where are the fact checkers on cBS news on this one.
Economy –
Avian flu has reached new corners of the globe and become endemic for the first time in some wild birds that transmit the virus to poultry, according to veterinarians and disease experts, who warn it is now a year-round problem.
Reuters spoke to more than 20 experts and farmers on four continents who said the prevalence of the virus in the wild signals that record outbreaks will not abate soon on poultry farms, ramping up threats to the world’s food supply.
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/3210388/bird-flu-spreads-new-countries-threatens-non-stop-war-poultry?utm_source=rss_feed
OBSERVATION – This is not good news for the poultry industry or consumers. Farmers were unable to extinguish the disease thru multiple culls over the past year and it looks like efforts are continuing to fall short. Now the evidence of global spread will make matters worse.
**
The United States will run out of ways to prevent the government from defaulting sometime this summer, between July and September, the Congressional Budget Office projected Wednesday.
That deadline is later than the one that has been given by the Treasury Department, which is for June. The U.S. hit its debt ceiling last month, and the Treasury Department began “extraordinary measures” to prevent default. The measures essentially amount to shifting money around government accounts in order to pay incoming bills without issuing new debt.
OBSERVATION – The game of chicken between the congress and biden continues and it is apparent that biden et al are trying to lay the groundwork to level the blame on republicans should this deadline pass without a raise of the ceiling. Thanks to senate republicans the house lost all abilty to control the budget bloat via the CR, now have to deal with the nuclear bomb that is the national debt ceiling. Biden’s handlers don’t care – they would that the national economy get crashed – it would advance the GGR goals.
Invasion of Illegals –
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has encountered 2,999 Chinese nationals at the southern border so far in fiscal year 2023—a 719 percent increase year over year, according to CBP data released on Feb. 10.
OBSERVATION – The ethnic mix of those coming across the southern border is very diverse and that diversity is increasingly troublesome.
**
Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) have proposed their “DREAM Act” amnesty that would provide green cards and, eventually, naturalized American citizenship to nearly two million illegal aliens.
OBSERVATION – Graham is a trainwreck and flips back and forth on the cultural scene like a ship in an ocean storm. Such an amnesty scheme will definitely be used by the left to shove as many illegals into a legitimate status here above the 2 million (!) this bill is supposedly authorized, through all sorts of worm holes in the bill and adjacent legislation/regulations.
Biden / Harris watch –
President Biden arrived at Walter Reed Medical Center on Thursday morning to undergo his annual physical.
Biden arrived for his physical around 9:15 a.m. The White House will publicly release a written summary of the president’s physical later in the day after it is completed, the press office said.
Biden did not have a physical during the 2022 calendar year, which the White House chalked up to “scheduling around what has been a busy and evolving travel schedule in recent weeks.”
His last physical was completed in November 2021, and his physician determined at that time that he was healthy and fit to execute the duties of the presidency.
OBSERVATION – As we know from previous queries on biden’s health, there will be an abundance of “no comments” and other obfuscation.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) has moved to the eastern Med in support of earthquake relief in Turkey. It has been stationed for months just south of the Black Sea ready to support any response to the Russian – Ukraine war needed for NATO countries.
OBSERVATION – There is very little the carrier can do to support relief efforts. It can supply some medical support, but is there more for show.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russia said it would call a meeting of the United Nations Security Council to discuss the sabotage of its Nord Stream gas pipelines. The meeting, scheduled for February 22nd, was reported by the Russian state-backed media outlet RIA news agency.
The Kremlin has also reportedly ordered all Russian TV Channels to broadcast President Putin’s Address to the Nation on February 21st.
Logistics –
- According the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Russia lost around 50% of its pre-invasion fleet of modern T-72B3s and T-72B3M main battle tanks. The inventory of T-80BV/U tanks is estimated to have been reduced by even two-thirds.
This is a major reason that many see any potential Russian offensive as in precarious reality as facts are it has had to rely upon outdated replacement tanks like the T-62 for its forces.
Economic Impact –
- Head of department of financial supply of Russian Western Military District Marina Yankina has committed suicide in St.Petersburg, falling out of the window
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 32 cruise missile at critical infrastructure objects across Ukraine overnight, 16 were shot down. Only 16 have been intercepted primarily because of the usage of Kh-22 which cannot be intercepted with the current inventory, according to Ukraine sources. The Kh-22 Burya (Storm) is a Soviet nuclear-tipped (refitted for Ukraine with conventional explosive warheads) anti-ship missile. Development of this missile began back in 1958. It was taken out of service in 1980’s
Heavy fighting continues to be centered around Bahkmut and Donetsk this morning.
Renewed Russian attacks in the Vuhledar area.
Massive explosions overnight in Russian occupied parts of southern Kherson region as well as the land bridge region with Crimea of Armyansk
Inclusive of the standard lethal attacks on Ukraine comes the increase in Russia’s use of balloons for intelligence collection. This is a noted change in Russian tactics – of course the question is WHY?
The balloons have the potential to confuse radar systems and entice the Ukrainian military into launching very expensive surface-to air-missiles (Sams) at so-called “false targets”.
Given the balloons’ size and speed, the air force spokesman argued that Ukrainian radar was able to identify the objects correctly and on at least two occasions bring them down with bullets instead of wasting missiles.
But the balloons could also act as decoys. Ukraine constantly scans the skies for Russian aircraft and missiles using ground-based radars, many of which are part of their own Soviet-era Sam systems along with modern equivalents supplied by the West.
The Ukrainian military said the balloons had reflectors, which would entice Ukrainian aircraft defenses to lock on to them. That ‘lock on’ provides intelligence to Russia on radar location and type, which could be used in an escalated suppression operation by Russia forces to attempt to gain control over Ukranian airspace, something Russia has failed to do since the start of the war.
Locating the structure of the air defense network also permits analysis of ‘holes’ in the defense through which drones and cruise missiles can exploit. This could account for the unusually low intercept rate from the last cruise missile attacks overnight (following a balloon “barrage”) – a very quick intelligence turnaround for an attack.
OUTLOOK –
Still a lot of voices out there saying there will be a massive application of airpower by Russia to try to jump start their winter/spring invasion. How successful will it be? Many analysts see the communication problem between ground forces and artillery support being duplicated by ground/air comms. The bureaucracy of the Russian military has hampered its artillery support as fire calls have to go through many layers before approval. I see nothing different for the air force. To gain air superiority necessary for such an effort, a significantly coordinated suppression effort must be made, otherwise they will be flying into an airborne sausage grinder. True for the alleged helicopter support – the battle space is rife with MANPADS and other ADA systems – even more so than at the start of the war. I still judge this as a big gamble by Russia if the rumors are true.
I anticipate more grinding battles around Bahkmut. Russia faces some set backs and friction between Wagner and regular Russian command forces may be getting worse, with the regular Russians willing to see Wagner get wiped out in attacks just for political purposes. As I’ve noted elsewhere in the past, there is no love lost between Wagner and the MoD- it is a nasty political knife fight.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Rumbling continues over potential attempts by Russian sponsored elements to overthrow the govt.
Syria -
The area ravished by the recent earthquake – N. Syria – is also the home to independent forces against Assad as well as Kurds. Well, while they are still recovering their dead, Turkish army shelled the town of Tal Rifaat in Shahba region.
Misc of Note –
News out of the ongoing Ohio train disaster is becoming more disturbing. The train cars containing vinyl chloride that were burned create as a byproduct hydrogen chloride and phosgene, according to the International Programme on Chemical Safety. Phosgene is highly poisonous and was used extensively during World War I as a choking agent, while hydrogen chloride is irritating and corrosive to any tissue with which it comes into contact.
The rail company and state/govt entities (especially EPA) are trying to keep this disaster under wraps, but the effects are too large and too many people are ticked off – the cover is threatening be be blown off. Vinyl chloride was bad enough but PHOSGENE! That stuff has a very long life span – they continue to encounter pockets of this and mustard gas in France and Belgium.
This hasn't been a story I've been following - so my question is sincere... Did this disease originate in China?
Globalism / Great Reset –
According to a panelist at the World Government Summit in the United Arab Emirates this week, the “international order” needs some reorganizing — and not in a “gradual” way, but with a “shock.” Panelist agreed that global institutions, which of course have little to no accountability to the citizens of specific countries, need more power to stop crises. The unanswered question is, just what sort of “shock” do these globalists have in mind?
Professor Arturo Bris, director of IMD World Competitiveness Center, made the somewhat vague but “shock”ing comment during the panel. –
“How — how is this transition going to happen?” Bris stammered. “I mean, I agree, totally agree, that the world order, the way it is built today, doesn’t make any sense. “
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/catherinesalgado/2023/02/16/world-government-summit-panelist-says-shock-needed-for-transformation-of-international-order-n1671286
OBSERVATION – We already know that the WEF/GGR viewed wuhan plandemic “crisis” as a stepping stone to implement their globalist goals. Since then, a number of potential ‘crisis’s’ have been put forth by WEF’rs such as a mega cyber attack, another plandemic and most favorably (for their GGR) a massive economic crash. IMHO they are working towards the economic crash model and the other things will only contribute to the chaos surrounding the event. To “Build Back Better”, you have to destroy the existing system.
**
In an interview on a German program, “Handelsblatt Disrupt,” Gates calls for unleashing AI to stop certain views from being “magnified by digital channels.” The problem is that we allow “various conspiracy theories like QAnon or whatever to be blasted out by people who wanted to believe those things.”
Gates added that AI can combat “political polarization” by checking “confirmation bias.”
Confirmation bias is a term long used to describe the tendency of people to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms their own beliefs. It is now being used to dismiss those with opposing views as ignorant slobs dragging their knuckles across the internet — people endangering us all by failing to accept the logic behind policies on COVID, climate change or a host of other political issues.
https://jonathanturley.org/2023/02/15/free-speech-is-futile-gates-goes-full-borg-on-ai-censorship/
OBSERVATION – More of the same from our wannabe global overlords. This takes us way past Orwell and into seriously uncharted waters.
**
Globalist billionaire George Soros predicted that Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will defeat former President Donald Trump for the GOP presidential nomination ahead of the 2024 election, and that Trump will run as a third-party candidate.
OBSERVATION – Is this the kiss of death for DeSantis, or clever maneuvering by Soros to poison the well by this apparent endorsement?
Wuhan virus –
The NFL Players Association (NFLPA) is being urged to offer players cardiac screening in light of the growing concern over COVID-19 vaccines causing heart inflammation.
The Health Freedom Defense Fund urged the association in a recent letter to implement screening because the vaccines can cause myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation. Young males are the most at risk.
Most NFL players received a COVID-19 vaccine under pressure from teams and the league.
“Safety signals illustrate that the near and long-term health outcomes of the COVID-19 vaccines remain uncertain,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the fund, told DeMaurice Smith, executive director of the players association, in the letter.
“A multitude of adverse reactions to these injections, including myocarditis, are wide-ranging and confirmed, and as such, prudence dictates that the NFLPA investigate the extent to which the COVID-19 shots may have resulted in injury, compromised health or death of players,” Manookian said.
OBSERVATION – the sudden deaths of high profile sports stars – many on the field in front of thousands – that have exploded over the past year should have athletes who were forced to receive the jab concerned. It will be bitterly opposed by the owners and the medical tyranny of the CDC because it would provide significant data on the deadly effects of the jab – data and follow on studies that have eroded the credibility of the CDC, FDA and the medical community in general.
**
Immunity acquired from a Covid infection provides strong, lasting protection against the most severe outcomes of the illness, according to research published Thursday in The Lancet — protection, experts say, that’s on par with what’s provided through two doses of an mRNA vaccine.
Infection-acquired immunity cut the risk of hospitalization and death from a Covid reinfection by 88% for at least 10 months, the study found.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)02465-5/fulltext
OBSERVATION – Shunned medical experts made this claim years ago as this plandemic got underway. The medical tyranny tried to minimize any beneficial immunity derived from infection down to a level that was below the alleged ‘protection’ that the jab was claimed to provide. Time (and double basic jabs plus two boosters later) have proven that the jab is worthless in preventing the disease and new data coming out that the jabbed have something like an 85% increased chance of infection (can’t find that source reference – just going off my memory). This is just another of the many “I told you so” that medical experts, using SCIENCE, have laid out against the medical tyrannist who suppressed these facts in order to justify the mandate of the jabs.
BTW – I still have to work out my normalcy bias over the fact that the medical community would go along with such a plan knowing the jab was far more dangerous than the infection for most of the population. One that may even been designed to depopulate the planet.
Economy –
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Philip Swagel said Social Security funds will begin running a shortfall starting in 2032, a year earlier than previously expected.
OBSERVATION – SS has been raped over the years by both parties – placing IOUs into the fund as they take $$$ out to fund pork.
**
Congressional Budget Office released projections that show cumulative deficit projections increased by $6 trillion in the two years since biden was sworn into office.
As a matter of fact, tax-revenue projections are up about $7 trillion as the economy emerged from the pandemic. So that is not the issue. The issue is that spending projections have soared $13 trillion, as a result of trillions of new spending from Biden, the growth of entitlements, and significantly higher projected interest on the debt.
OBSERVATION – Many have noted our national debt is beyond any meaningful effort to bring under control and reduce. Many of the ‘programs’ instituted by both sides of the aisle have morphed into worthless money consuming monsters. From a WEF/GGR aspect, this is playing right into their “reset” plans. You can’t really ‘reset’ something unless it is crashed. And oh how great the crash here and globally will be.
**
Kalifornia is facing a wildfire of a different sort – one of a massive budget crisis. After claiming a 90 Billion surplus last year, the state is paying the piper with an expected 30 billion (and growing) shortfall this year. This is on top of the billions and billions of red ink carried over from previous other years.
Kalifornians proudly used to say that they are the trend setters and what happens there will eventually spread to the rest of the nation. God Help Us.
**
For what its worth, OpenAI’s ChatGPT has reportedly predicted that the stock market will crash on March 15, 2023.
OBSERVATION – Take it for what its worth, however, one of the stated goals of AI has been to sort through data and predict trends and events. Worth a placeholder on the calendar.
Invasion of Illegals –
Judiciary Committee ranking member Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) announced Thursday that committee Democrats would not attend an official border hearing next week in Arizona, misleadingly claiming “there was no consultation” with them about it.
OBSERVATION – Grandstanding by both sides, but Nadler has very little for his defense – they were notified 3 weeks ago. For their part, it seems republicans are making an effort to take their committee meeting out to where the public is and bypass the censors of the MSM that have a choke hold on DC.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden “remains a healthy, vigorous, 80-year-old male, who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the Presidency.”
**
Biden gave a speech on the US response to the recent “aerial objects” . it turned out to be a real nothing burger with very little new information made available.
One statement was that the three objects that U.S. fighter jets downed over the United States and Canada last weekend were “most likely balloons tied to private companies, recreation, or research institutions, studying weather, or conducting other scientific research,”
CW2/Domestic violence –
Most of the Antifa et al actions of late are focused once again in supporting radical trans-activist marches and protests.
**
Black students at an elementary school in Springfield, Ohio, allegedly hunted down, captured, and dragged white students to the playground, where they forced them to recite identitarian Marxist slogans against their will on camera.
OBSERVATION – These black children will be on the front lines for the next Floyd riots. Indoctrinated in CRT and white hatred, the precursors of a race war are shaping up quickly.
**
An Oregon judge accused sheriffs who, citing the Constitution, refuse to enforce federal and state gun control laws of embracing “racist and white nationalist ideologies.”
The Oregon Court of Appeals on Wednesday ruled that local governments in the state cannot declare themselves Second Amendment sanctuaries and prohibit police from enforcing statewide gun laws. It was the first court defeat for the concept, which has been adopted by as many as 1,200 conservative local governments in response to Democrat-run cities and local jurisdictions that have declared themselves “sanctuary cities” and refuse to enforce federal immigration laws.
Some of these ordinances are symbolic, but the court reviewed a measure enacted in Columbia County that would have imposed thousands of dollars in fines on officials who attempt to enforce federal and state gun laws. It said the ordinance would “create a ‘patchwork quilt’ of firearms laws in Oregon, where firearms regulations that applied in some counties would not apply in Columbia County,” which the court found would violate state law.
OBSERVATION – Development of alternative, parallel local and state govts that are the result of citizens splitting off from tyrannical govts is one stage in the formation of the groundwork for a hot CW2. Of course, with this is the apparent two-tiered legal system that allows for sanctuary cities for illegals – creating a ‘patchwork’ of enforcement. Lawfare will continue as this ruling will no doubt be appealed. However, Oregon’s leftist court system is unlikely to rule power away from the Marxists in the state and fed govt. The fact that the court invoked the “racist and white nationalist ideologies” argument only confirms the judicial bias.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
According to Defense Department data, fentanyl overdoses in the military jumped from 36% of overdoses in 2017 to 88% in 2021.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has threatened to unleash “unprecedentedly persistent and strong counteractions” if South Korea and the United States carry out planned military exercises in the coming weeks, local media reported.
A spokesperson for North Korea’s foreign ministry issued the warning on Friday before the annual Freedom Shield joint military exercises of South Korea and the US and accused Washington of stoking tension by conducting earlier drills which included US stealth fighters and a B1-B strategic bomber that can be equipped with nuclear weapons.
The springtime Freedom Shield field training is scheduled to begin in mid-March in South Korea and will run for 11 days.
OBSERVATION – This is a typical NK threat and if they decide to act, will most probably result in some more short to midrange missiles being launched. Some analysts think this may rise to an actual launch of the suspected new solid fuel ICBM or even a nuke test. Reality is NK needs no provocation to conduct such tests and most of the chest thumping is for domestic consumption.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
There are reports of regular Russian forces refusing to supply ammunition to Wagner. There are also reports Wagner are being replaced by regular Russian army around Bakhmut.
NOTE – Knife fight between Wagner and the Russian MoD may not be going in Wagner’s favor.
**
Continued chatter on the interwebs about a Russian plan to extensively use its Air Force, in support of its ground offensive despite knowing that the losses would be high.
This kind of operation requires a great deal of coordination between air and ground elements. This level of cooperation has largely been absent between ground units and extending that to controlling ground stikes on a large scale is a formula for high losses. An alternative view would be that the airforce would attack deeper targets – exposing them to the well developed Ukrainian air defense network that has cut its teeth shooting down ballistic and cruise missiles.
Some note that this plan is so insane and desperate that it has a high probability to be actually true. Ukraine’s air defense would have a field day.
Economic Impact –
The Russian Association of Banks has asked the Russian Government to increase the undeclared limit on the import of foreign currency into Russia by 10 times. Now up to 100,000 US Dollars.” This is seen as an effort to prop up the Russian currency but will likely only increase inflation as this money hits the market.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures still ranging in the 20s and 30s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. Weather systems generating about 75-100% cloud cover, not very optimum for CAS.
RUMINT –
RUMINT. “There are 10,000 Russian troops massed on the other side of the border with Sumy. It’s the largest concentration there has ever been here. And they have built a field hospital”, senior lieutenant Andrei Hulakov says.
NOTE – For those who followed the build up to the invasion last year, OSINT and other intelligence groups were able to track the units, strengths and locations. This 10,000 number has not been confirmed via any other source.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Continued Russian assaults against Bahkmut and surrounding areas. Ukraine has called for all remaining civilians to evacuate the town. Ukraine has launched several, successful counter attacks around the town, giving its defenders some breathing room.
Ukraine counterattacks in the south around Vuhledar have also driven Russian forces away from the city.
OUTLOOK –
Looks like Russia if trying to increase its efforts to capture Bahkmut – before the anniversary of the start of the invasion according to some. Expect intensity of fighting to remain high.
Also trying to sift through the conflicting views on the follow-on Russian offensive actions. Force distribution and the hyped discussion of a major Russian air campaign. If their air force is as screwed up as their ground forces (and many indicators pretty much confirm this) it will be a turkey shoot. May gain some measure of success just by overwhelming numbers, but CAS in winter/stormy/cloudy conditions with very poor coordination with ground elements has a tendency to not do well. I suspect that to compensate that Russia may well resort to planned missions, not the standard CAS we are accustomed to. This kind of set piece operation avoids targeting confusion but absent of a successful suppression campaign, Russian planes flying around in unsecured airspace with every ada asset targeting them would not be a situation that leads to long term success.
Belarus -
Putin met with Lukashenka at his residence in Moscow region. More arm twisting to try to get Belarus more directly involved in the Ukraine war. Lukashenka reinterated that would only happen if Ukraine or other NATO country attacked it.
OBSERVATION – Lukashenka statement generated a lot of ‘false flag’ type warnings that Russia would stage such an attack and have it blamed on Ukraine or one of the Nato nations.
Iran –
Iran has seen its most widespread anti-government protests in weeks, after small crowds marched overnight in Tehran and a number of other cities. Videos showed people chanting “Woman, life, freedom” and “Death to Khamenei” - a reference to the Supreme Leader. It followed calls to mark the 40th day of mourning for two men executed on protest-related charges, Mohammad Mehdi Karami and Seyed Mohammad Hosseini.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64675060
Misc of Note –
The hits keep coming in regards to the Ohio train disaster –
The CDC update changed the lethal exposure from 100PPM to 100,000PPM. The lethal exposure level had remained the same for 17 years before the CDC decided to update the number just prior to the derailment, where highly toxic chemicals spilled or were burned off, leaving a chemical stench in the air nearly two weeks later. The catastrophe has been downplayed by Biden administration and the media, and the Environmental Protection Agency has deemed the water “safe to drink” – despite the existing reports of wildlife and pets dying in the affected area.
This change was made just 11 days before the train derailment and the ensuing environmental disaster.
MORE –
The Biden administration is rejecting a request for federal disaster assistance from Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine in the aftermath of the train derailment and ecological disaster that has devastated the area around East Palestine, Ohio.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) told Ohio’s state government that it was not eligible for disaster assistance, a spokesperson for DeWine told Fox News Digital on Thursday. The Dewine spokeseman explained that FEMA believed the incident qualified as a traditional disaster, such as a tornado or hurricane, for which it usually provides assistance.
“The DeWine Administration has been in daily contact with FEMA to discuss the need for federal support, however FEMA continues to tell Governor DeWine that Ohio is not eligible for assistance at this time,” DeWine’s office said in an earlier statement. “Governor DeWine will continue working with FEMA to determine what assistance can be provided.”
“Just in case you were wondering why Biden and Buttigieg are ignoring the toxic chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio,” O’Handley remarked. “Columbiana County voted 71% for Trump in 2020.”
OBSERVATION - This is a crisis that will not go away any time soon. A lot of screw-ups on many levels and its eventually going to cost people their lives from cancer and other ailments. Agriculture will be taking a major hit as well.
Black Swans
I noted above that Kaliforina is facing an economic firestorm. This summer/early fall kalifornia will be facing a real firestorm. With the abundance of precipitation this winter will come an explosion of grass and bush growth – ladder fuels that drive major forest fires. Last year after several years of drought, there were relatively few major wildfires – because lack of rain prevented the growth of these ladder fuels. That is all gone and as the heat of summer dries this growth out, expect megafires this fall.