Invasion of Illegals –
The Department of Homeland Security is reducing its fleet of surveillance blimps along the overwhelmed southern border from 12 to four, Fox News reported Thursday.
“It’s hard to believe how badly Biden has botched the border,” Senator Rick Scott (R-Fla.) told EWTN News Nightly on Thursday.
“Now, if he gets rid of these blimps, we’re not going to know how many gotaways there are. It’s going to make our border way less secure,” the Sunshine State lawmaker continued.
OBSERVATION – These blimps were originally installed to detect low flying aircraft illegally crossing the US border, most of the time carrying drugs. They were relatively successful and forced the drug cartels to devise other means to get their product into the US. Cartel use of private aircraft to haul goods is very common in Mexico and the reduction of the surveillance along the border will likely enbolden them to resume flying high value drugs into the US once again by plane.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
ISIS has increased calls for terror attacks across the globe. While these calls have been out there for a while, what is notable is that they have broken through the background noise of everything else going on around the globe to gain notice. These calls for action are primarily linked to outrage over Sweden not stopping Danish-Swedish politician Rasmus Paludan from burning copies of the Qu’ran.
This also coincides with their efforts in Syria (see below) to expand their control of Syrian and other territory in the region.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Following the shooting down of an unidentified floating thing over Alaska, Canada requested support for another ‘thing’ floating over it as their CF-18s couldn’t reach the altitude they were floating at. Then came the news that the airspace around Havre MT was closed due to a military situation. It was later lifted after the DoD decision to wait until daylight to intercept a strange radar blip that initiated the restrictions in the first place.
Origin of these objects is still being reported as unknown. CNN has reported that US Pilots approaching object shot down over Alaska said the aircraft interfered with their plane’s sensors, another said they ‘could identify no identifiable propulsion system and they did not know how it was actually staying in the air. NORAD has stated that the Aircraft that was shot down over Northern Alaska yesterday was not detected by Radar or Early Warning Systems until it had already entered U.S. Airspace over Alaska unlike the Chinese High-Altitude Surveillance Balloon that was detected and tracked long before it had entered U.S or Canadian Airspace.
OBSERVATION –
The simplicity of these balloon incursions show that sometimes low tech can work. So far only our F-22 s have the ceiling high enough to intercept these ‘things’. On the high tech side, it is possible that who ever sent these things up (likely the Chinese) may have incorporated a degree of stealth technology to them - again to gain data on US abilty to detect them.
Cheap and seemingly able to float above air defenses they could serve as excellent intelligence collection platforms as well as potential weapons carriers. So far F-22’s have three kills of these floating ‘things’.
China –
Being implicated in the recent balloon flap.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and recently demoted General Sergey Surovikin have been defeated in a bid to push out Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to a prominent Russian dissident.
According to Vladimir Osechkin, the founder of the Gulagu.net group, Prigozhin, Kadyrov and Surovikin formed a triumvirate last autumn in an unsuccessful attempt to take over the Russian Ministry of Defence and take control of the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
Osechkin says that “Prigozhin was aiming for the post of first deputy head of the Ministry of Defence or for the post of defence minister. Kadyrov had plans to head the National Guard.” Surovikin became the commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine on 8 October 2022.
However, Osechkin says, Russia’s internal security agency, the FSB, found out about the plot. The trio got cold feet in a classic prisoner’s dilemma. “Each of them was not prepared to risk his own well-being for the sake of a jointly successful bright future.”
**
Russia’s new T-14 Armata tank, which, according to reports, was seen in action in Ukraine last week. This would be a first report of this tank in Ukraine.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is suffering its highest daily casualty rate in Ukraine since the start of the war, according to UK officials.
Vladimir Putin’s forces are losing 824 troops a day as the first anniversary of the start of the conflict approaches, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) believes.
In the first week of the war, Moscow was suffering an average of 1,140 casualties a day, figures compiled by the general staff of the Ukraine army suggested.
That dropped to 173 a day last July, but has been climbing steadily since then.
In their latest intelligence update on the war, the MoD said: “Over the past two weeks, Russia has likely suffered its highest rate of casualties since the first week of the invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy fighting in and around Bahkmut and northward towards Kreminna. Bahkmut has become increasingly been encircled to the north and south, but Russian forces still haven’t been able to seal the deal.
Zaporizhzhia front relativey quiet except for artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
This is a little bit of RUMINT, but supportable by available evidence. Russia milbloggers are enraged at the poor tactics of Russia armor, leading to their destruction in mass as they enter into combat. More an more videos being released showing Russian units when they come under fire, bunch up and just sit – making Ukrainian targeting that much easier. Other videos show them running over dismounted soldiers in their haste to get out of a kill zone – with many times they then run over a landmine.
NOTE - Watched on video clip where the lead vehicle was nailed with likely an Excalibur round, 4 following vehicle came to a complete stop. Second Excalibur hit one of the middle vehicles – still no motion by the others to get out of the kill zone, they just sat still. Eventually all were in flames after being hit and dismounted troops getting nailed by HE rounds trying to run away.
One word on these Russian milbloggers, many of them are partially embedded with Russian forces so can report first hand the action. When meshed with Ukrainian information, these bloggers provide a lot of intel on Russian forces.
The US army drills these various situations as part of the basic skills responses, so that it becomes second nature to them. Russia stacking up armor like on a highway traffic jam show that this level of training is essentially non-existent. This raises doubts in the Russian milblogger world that Russia could successfully exploit any kind of significant breakout using armored units. In short, Russia still hasn’t learned how to apply combined arms tactics to the battlefield like Ukraine successfully has.
The past weeks increase in combat continues to appear to be the leading edge of a Russian offensive. It also continues to show signs of being hastily put together in order to interfer with Ukraine’s planned offensive. Key axis of attacks continue to be the line from Donetsk northward to Kreminna and even further north to Svatove. The hammer will continue to fall the heaviest around Bakhmut where Ukraine forces will soon have to decide if it is time to fall back onto deeper, prepared defenses of face physical encirclement. Another contended area will be the Kreminna area due to the key logistical centers Russia wants to assist in supplying the northern flank of the main offensive.
Syria -
The Pro-Assad forces are holding rescue and humanitarian aid essentially hostage as they use it to leverage controls over the N Syrian territories devastated by the quake, but also are the stronghold of anti-Assad forces.
ISIS is also trying to take advantage of the chaotic aftermath of the quake by expanding its operations in Syria.
Turkey -
Two German aid organizations suspended rescue operations in quake-hit Turkey on Saturday, citing security problems and reports of clashes between groups of people and gunfire.
While there are press reports of survivors still being found, most are being found dead.
Colombia -
Brazil’s socialist President, Lula da Silva, has made mandatory childhood vaccinations a condition of receiving government subsidies. The socialist president announced that parents would once again need to provide proof of vaccination for their children in order to participate in the Bolsa Familia program and receive the benefit, or else families will not receive any help from the government.
OBSERVATION – Leftist tyrants gotta do what they normally do and that is keep the peons slapped down. This is the danger in becoming reliant on govt handouts – the govt can then make demands on you for the continuation of handouts.
Misc of Note –
The weather service is tracking double two separate storm systems are set to bring severe weather, heavy snow and flooding rain to various parts of the U.S.
Specific forecast details are still uncertain as the storm systems have yet to develop, but the general timing appears to be Monday and Tuesday for the first storm and Wednesday and Thursday for the second one. Severity of the storms is still being gauged, but the back-to-back nature and the seasonal shift in gulf moisture moving north can provide the catalyst for some very nasty, dangerous weather.
OBSERVATION – These storms here in the Redoubt are more snow makers than frigid arctic air masses we’ve been hit twice with in recent months. Still, for the south risk of major tornado outbreaks is the major concern.
Black Swans
Superbowl and balloons have sucked the air out of most of the reporting on the feeds I monitor. Seems slow, but I suspect things are going fast below the surface. Pretty slim report for a Monday
Globalism / Great Reset –
A professor at Yale is calling for the elderly in Japan to kill themselves and cease being a burden on society. Fact is, these types have been endorsing death across the planet for the sick and elderly. Fully expect an increased effort here in the US to promote death beyond that of abortion.
Biden / Harris watch –
Harris once again is excited about school busses.. . .
CW2/Domestic violence –
Angry Eagle fans tore up Philadelphia overnight. They would have done the same if the Eagles had won.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
“An F-16 fighter jet shot down the object, over Lake Huron, according to a Congressional aide, who said the object was shaped like an octagon and was at an altitude of 20,000 feet, posing a hazard to commercial aircraft.”
Senator Tester is saying the object shot down over Lake Huron is the same object that was detected over Montana last night.
OBSERVATION – incredible. Even china is shooting down balloons.
**
Related? NORAD has announced that they will be conducting an Air Defense Exercise on Tuesday over Washington, D.C.
OBSERVATION - Reportedly, this is an annual drill, but in light of the balloon barrage who know?
Cyber Warfare –
Reported yesterday that the Russian-backed hacktivist group KILLNET declared today that they are going to target NATO’s infrastructure with DDoS attacks.
China –
China has claimed to have shot down an unidentified balloon over its territory.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy fighting continues to be centered around Bahkmut and northward towards Kreminna.
Apparently not wanting to be left out of the whole balloon thing, the Russian army launched a reconnaissance drone at Dnipropetrovsk region and several balloons with reflectors, - Ukrainian Air Command
OUTLOOK –
Nothing really jumping out from the overnight actions. Russian forces are pressing hard on the north side of Bahkmut with unconfirmed reports that it is sending small, special covert ops to infiltrate into the town at night.
Russian information space is not too thrilled with how this “offensive” is starting out. Reports of how soldiers are treated on the front have gotten back to the general population and is not being taken well. Conservative estimates of nearly 1000 deaths (not inclusive of causalities) hit home that Russia cannot fight using WW1/2 tactics in 2023 and expect to win.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova’s President outlined Monday what she described as a plot by Moscow to use external saboteurs to overthrow her country’s government, put the nation “at the disposal of Russia” and derail its aspirations to one day join the European Union.
President Maia Sandu’s briefing comes a week after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country had intercepted plans by Russian secret services to destroy Moldova, claims that were later confirmed by Moldovan intelligence officials.
OBSERVATION – How great of a threat this poses is uncertain. Ever since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia has wanted to be physically connected and in control of the country. Russian forces are in Transnistria, a thin strip of land adjacent to Ukraine and those forces have been drawn down due to the war. The miliary there does not pose a threat to Ukraine, but could make life difficult in Moldova. If Russia tries something in Moldova, Romania may be drawn into it – and potentially NATO with it.
Superbowl and balloons have sucked the air out of most of the reporting on the feeds I monitor. Seems slow, but I suspect things are going fast below the surface. Pretty slim report for a Monday
Globalism / Great Reset –
A professor at Yale is calling for the elderly in Japan to kill themselves and cease being a burden on society. Fact is, these types have been endorsing death across the planet for the sick and elderly. Fully expect an increased effort here in the US to promote death beyond that of abortion.
Biden / Harris watch –
Harris once again is excited about school busses.. . .
CW2/Domestic violence –
Angry Eagle fans tore up Philadelphia overnight. They would have done the same if the Eagles had won.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
“An F-16 fighter jet shot down the object, over Lake Huron, according to a Congressional aide, who said the object was shaped like an octagon and was at an altitude of 20,000 feet, posing a hazard to commercial aircraft.”
Senator Tester is saying the object shot down over Lake Huron is the same object that was detected over Montana last night.
OBSERVATION – incredible. Even china is shooting down balloons.
**
Related? NORAD has announced that they will be conducting an Air Defense Exercise on Tuesday over Washington, D.C.
OBSERVATION - Reportedly, this is an annual drill, but in light of the balloon barrage who know?
Cyber Warfare –
Reported yesterday that the Russian-backed hacktivist group KILLNET declared today that they are going to target NATO’s infrastructure with DDoS attacks.
China –
China has claimed to have shot down an unidentified balloon over its territory.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy fighting continues to be centered around Bahkmut and northward towards Kreminna.
Apparently not wanting to be left out of the whole balloon thing, the Russian army launched a reconnaissance drone at Dnipropetrovsk region and several balloons with reflectors, - Ukrainian Air Command
OUTLOOK –
Nothing really jumping out from the overnight actions. Russian forces are pressing hard on the north side of Bahkmut with unconfirmed reports that it is sending small, special covert ops to infiltrate into the town at night.
Russian information space is not too thrilled with how this “offensive” is starting out. Reports of how soldiers are treated on the front have gotten back to the general population and is not being taken well. Conservative estimates of nearly 1000 deaths (not inclusive of causalities) hit home that Russia cannot fight using WW1/2 tactics in 2023 and expect to win.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova’s President outlined Monday what she described as a plot by Moscow to use external saboteurs to overthrow her country’s government, put the nation “at the disposal of Russia” and derail its aspirations to one day join the European Union.
President Maia Sandu’s briefing comes a week after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country had intercepted plans by Russian secret services to destroy Moldova, claims that were later confirmed by Moldovan intelligence officials.
OBSERVATION – How great of a threat this poses is uncertain. Ever since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia has wanted to be physically connected and in control of the country. Russian forces are in Transnistria, a thin strip of land adjacent to Ukraine and those forces have been drawn down due to the war. The miliary there does not pose a threat to Ukraine, but could make life difficult in Moldova. If Russia tries something in Moldova, Romania may be drawn into it – and potentially NATO with it.