Are you positing that this is close to the final map for this conflict?
No. I don’t want to make predictions as things change so rapidly, but it does seem like Ukraine is going to get back the coastline to the sea of Azov — if circumstances favor them (a big if) - by February.
Russians don’t care enough about this war and as it hits closer and closer to home with more defeats by ukraine (a nation they looked down upon), they will be more disheartened.
This is not a defence of the motherland - Russians are having a hard time understanding “Hans, are we the baddies?”