Welllllll...
I live smack dab in the middle of farm country ( including some amish farms )...
Fields are being plowed
Crops are being planted
Winter wheat is a growin...
I believe what I see, not what some talking head on the boob tube tells me
Good to hear.
That's all baked in. Except maybe for the cost of bread or other wheat products when that wheat you see in the fields gets put on your grocer's shelves as a retail product.
How about you actually talk to a few of those farmers*? Or go on some farming forums. How are their costs looking?
*I already have. Here in the USA, we will have food. The prices will get nasty, though. Countries whose poor can't afford the prices are gonna have a problem.
Welllllll...
I live smack dab in the middle of farm country ( including some amish farms )...
Fields are being plowed
Crops are being planted
Winter wheat is a growin...
I believe what I see, not what some talking head on the boob tube tells me
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
How about a global perspective versus local?
What crops are “a growin?” — some crops require less nitrogen fertilizer than others—ex. wheat and soybeans, and savvy farmers will plant crops that require less nitrogen if ROI is not profitable...Corn requires a lot of nitrogen, wheat not so much...soybeans nada nitrogen.
Fields plowed? If wheat, when was the winter wheat planted? Usually in the Fall...before some of the wheat shortages took hold...certainly before the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Again, wheat does not require a lot of nitrogen—which is impacted by nat. gas...
When did the Amish buy their fertilizer for what they are planting? Farmers who bought last year are fortunate.
And true, for corn, will put down nitrogen in the Fall... savvy for them...Some have to put down more if wet fields in Spring...
Just trying to provide a different perspective as I have family member with PhD in Agronomy (Worked for years in agriculture) who has been concerned about global crop and fertilizer shortages since last August...They are not a talking head on “boob tube.”
I don’t think it is a bad idea to to plant garden, have some supplies on hand, invest in energy/agribusiness/energy companies...
Those stocks have increased substantially...crude nearly 50% since first of year..
I think the real drama is likely coming in Fall 2022 and Spring 2023.
Just my 2 cents listening to PhD in Agronomy...