[hardspunned]

I had an Oklahoma wheat farmer, on this forum, tell me his yield could be off as much as 50% if he had to plant with no fertilizer. If that’s the case globally, we are already screwed.

[EBH]

And the naysayers here are not concerned.

There is a huge normalcy bias still happening here and in the population general.

Bumped into a Mother & Father shopping in Walmart this morning. She stood in front of the near empty pasta aisle and asked out loud where all the pasta was at. She looked dead at me confused by the evidence in front of her.

I told her what Biden said this week about food shortages are coming. Her response was with 6 kids she doesn’t have time to watch the news. I responded, “Well, ya’ better start.”

What we have right now is still the supply chain issues. By late July-early August the food shortages will be getting real.

[JohnDeereGreen]

I was reading that thread earlier. I am a central texas farmer growing mostly forage and small grains and hay for animal production. Fourteen months ago I bought UAN 32 fertilizer for 232 a ton. 18 days ago I bought another load to top off my storage silos for 820 a ton. Friday a friend in South texas called in a panic because he had been quoted 2000 a ton for fertilizer. I gave my supplier a quick call and he had already been selling for 1200 a ton delivered and this next week was planning to go to 1600.

Part of this issue is the fertilizer price and part is the almost 5 dollar a gallon diesel fuel. Fertilizer in this area mostly all gets trucked in from Houston as it is needed.

What people need to realize is what these inputs actually mean as we are just into spring planting here and it goes to the north as it warms up. If fertilizer hits 2320 dollars which it appears it will easily, that will mean my input cost on one single item will be 1000 percent higher. Figure in diesel costs twice as much this year and parts are ridiculously expensive and hard to come by as well as oil and lubricants to service my equipment and you are basically going to come up with a commodity price that is 15 times what it was last year.

All that will rapidly filter down to the grocery stores as most all of it is traded on the futures and what that boils down to is if a grocery bill from last year cost 200 dollars I wouldn't be surprised to see it north of 2000 before very long for the same items.

I highly recommend planting a garden if a person is able to and stock up on flour, salt, yeast, dry goods and can goods while the market is still sane.

[Ellendra]

I had an Oklahoma wheat farmer, on this forum, tell me his yield could be off as much as 50% if he had to plant with no fertilizer. If that’s the case globally, we are already screwed.

Add in the herbicide shortage, and the number could easily be more like 75%-95%.

I'm planting lots of potatoes this year.

[PeterPrinciple]

I had an Oklahoma wheat farmer, on this forum, tell me his yield could be off as much as 50% if he had to plant with no fertilizer. If that’s the case globally, we are already screwed.

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Or it could be that with all the fertilizer in the world and a dry crop year.

he will buy crop insurance with govt subsidy. Nobody is going to lose money, but we might not complain with our mouthful next year.