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To: null and void; aragorn; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; ...

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Globalism / Great Reset -

TOPIC NOTE- These protests and national responses to the wuhan disease are evidence that it is not about the disease but control. The WEF has openly stated that they want to us this to usher in the ‘great reset’ ( a desire echoed by biden as well). However, as long as the population refuses to succumb to these lockdowns and restrictions, the WEF will find its goals delayed. Hence I’m tracking them here rather than wuhan. If action in the US starts to turn violent, I’ll track under CW2//Domestic Violence.

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Canada’s largest banks were offline yesterday. Royal Bank, BMO Bank of Montreal, CIBC Bank. Some consider this to be the result of a bank run for people to draw money out before Trudeau locks down accounts under Emergerncies Act dictates.
- “The federal government has not met the threshold necessary to invoke the Emergencies Act,” the Canadian Civil Liberties Association said. “This law creates a high and clear standard for good reason: the Act allows government to bypass ordinary democratic processes. This standard has not been met.”
- The threat of police violence has risen in recent rhetoric. Interim Police Steve Bell said on Wednesday that officers will “take back the entirety of the downtown core and every occupied space” in the “coming days”. The powers will also be used to compel the provision of essential services, namely tow truck drivers and companies to help remove vehicles from Ottawa’s congested downtown.
- Trudeau still being slammed by Parliament. During questioning in Parliament on Wednesday, Mr Trudeau was rebuked for telling a Jewish MP that “Conservative Party members can stand with people who wave swastikas”. The Speaker of the House warned Mr Trudeau against using “inflammatory” language. The Conservative MP that Mr Trudeau was addressing, Melissa Lantsman, later demanded an apology from him.
- Doxxed Canadian contributors to the protest are being threatened with violence.
- According to Reuters, premiers in Quebec, Manitoba, Alberta, and Saskatchewan have came out against Trudeau’s plan.
OBSERVATION - Trudeau is completely sold out to the GGR and his fellow leftist minions are crossing into dangerous territory. Public opinion stills sees the protest as largely peaceful, inspire of the media blitz. He may not get his Emergency Powers edict passed by parliament. Meanwhile, potential violence from his brownshirt syncopates continues to rise.

Protests in New Zealand continue with Maori protesting outside and performing the Haka, a ceremonial war dance.
They are protesting outside the New Zealand Parliament Building calling for an end to COVID-19 vaccine mandates and they are joined by many in their war dance. Prime Minister Ardern believes these current protests are “imported” and are a result of the Canadian trucker protests
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Wuhan virus -

Fauci has poked his head out of his hole. Now laying the foundation for a 4th jab. “The potential future requirement for an additional boost, or a fourth shot for MRNA or a third shot for J&J is being very carefully monitored in real time.”

A California bill aims to require all businesses in the state to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine for their employees.
Democratic Assms. Buffy Wicks of Oakland, Cecilia Aguiar-Curry of Winters, Evan Low of Cupertino and Akila Weber of San Diego introduced Assembly Bill 1993 last week. The bill would require all businesses in California to have their employees show proof that they either have been vaccinated against COVID-19 or have a religious or medical reason not to get the shot.
OBSERVATION - Swimming counter to public opinion - even for Kalifornia. But is serves notice that the branch covidians are not going to give up their power grab.
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Economy -

The White House stated it may scrap federal gasoline taxes to bring immediate relief from rising gas prices. This push contrasts the Administration’s long-term agenda to provide disincentives for the oil industry for electric alternatives. The pressure comes from average gas prices rising almost 50% and consumer prices rising by 7.5% since January 2021. Silence from the media on the non-impact the sale from the strategic reserve to prices.
NOTE - Here in the Redoubt, prices have gone up five cents/gallon. Sadly, we may hit $4+ by summer.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s measure of business expectations for inflation showed that on average firms in February expect to raise prices 3.6 percent. Economists are now looking at the possibility of an even higher rate increase in March.

More Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week following three straight weeks of declines. Jobless claims rose by 23,000 to 248,000 for the week ending Feb. 12, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Claims were revised up to 225,000 the previous week.
OBSERVATION - Govt blaming rise on wuhan.
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Cyber Warfare -

Two cybersecurity research firms determined the popular TikTok app can bypass user preferences, avoid code audits, and essentially access all data on mobile devices.
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Russia - T-?

WAR WATCH - Putin has deployed the Russian army for combat and can execute several options at any moment. Russian deployments indicate the capability to launch an offensive against Ukraine along 7 fronts: from the Union State of Russia and Belarus, from the Russian Federation, from Russian-occupied Donbas, from the Sea of Azov, from Russian-occupied Crimea, from the Black Sea, from Russian-occupied Moldova.

****Update ****
Here are the current indicators of an impending attack -
- Increased shelling between separatist forces in the Dombass region and Ukraine forces

POTENTIAL DIRECT THREATS TO THE US -
- Cyber attacks on energy and economic targets

********

We are now well into the waiting game, many calling it a “shell ‘game?. Propaganda flowing from both sides. Russia continues to claim that they are pulling forces back, particularly in the Crimea area, posting videos of armor vehicles being loaded on trains. Since is it Russia doing the posting to social media, it is highly suspicious, given the wide coverage from non-Russian sources documenting trains coming into the region. A similar flood of videos hasn’t occurred.
NOTE - Crimea would be a minor front in a potential conflict as Russia has massed most of its forces opposite of the breakaway areas controlled by separatists as well as on Ukraine’s northern border.

OSIMINT suggests a mixed bag of intel. Some imagery related by US-based Maxar Technologies show Russia has pulled back some military equipment. However, it said other hardware had arrived and that Russia still has a lot of forces and equipment near its border with Ukraine.

SecDef Austin: no sign of de-escalation, “quite the contrary we see them add to the more than 150 thousand troops that they have already arrayed on that border even in the last couple of days.” Added: “We even see them stocking up their blood supplies” He adds that “I was a soldier myself not that long ago. I know firsthand that you don’t do these sorts of things for no reason”

OVERALL OBSERVATION - The general consensus of the OSINT community is that Russia hasn’t started to redeploy forces from the border areas. Russia remains poised for an imminent attack, and the is their court.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru Feb 26 show temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. Today is a waning Gibbous moon.

Russia-backed separatist authorities in eastern Ukraine have accused the Ukrainian military of a major escalation and of preparing for a full-scale offensive. The reports are headline news in most Russian media.
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Belarus -

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Thursday that Russian troops will be in his country for “as long as necessary.”
“As long as necessary, the Russian Armed Forces will be here. This is our land, our territory,” Lukashenko told Belarusian state media. “We are working here, studying and will continue to study.”

Much has been made about a pontoon bridge constructed about 6 km north of the Ukraine border. Evidence indicates it could be part of the Belarus/Russian ‘exercise’ going on thru Feb 20th. However, its proximity of the Ukraine border would give it an additional crossing point in the event of an attack on Ukraine via Belarus.
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Europe / NATO General -

CNN has learned a Navy P-8 had an “extremely close” encounter with multiple Russian military jets over international waters in Med this weekend, according to multiple US officials. Maneuvers by the Russians were described as “unsafe and unprofessional” as one of the Russian aircraft reportedly passed within 5 feet of the P-8.
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Israel -

See Syria below on Hezbollah strike.
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Lebanon -

Hezbollah SG Nasrallah said yesterday the group has been producing drones in Lebanon and has the ability to turn thousands of rockets into precision missiles. He called on “whoever wants to buy them to submit an order”
OBSERVATION - Iran has accelerated development and deployment of drones with it’s proxy forces in Yemen, Iran, Syria and now Hezebollah. This is why Israel has accelerated air defense systems that can detect and destroy this threat.
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Syria -

Israelis conducted an operation near Damascus tonight, looks like an Iranian-linked (Hezbollah) target was bombed.
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87 posted on 02/17/2022 8:22:24 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: null and void; aragorn; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; ...

Russian update

There have been nearly 50 violations by dombass separatists so far today. This compares to 3-5 daily average.

Real-time network data show a significant disruption to internet connectivity in Luhansk, eastern Ukraine, resulting in a loss of mobile service on operator Vodafone. Most service has been restored


88 posted on 02/17/2022 5:21:44 PM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: null and void; aragorn; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; ...

*********
NOTE - Russia and Ukraine status raised to RED as increased fighting between Russian backed separatists and Ukraine forces.
*********

Threat Trending Code
Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - The Canadian Trucker and related protests are poising a significant threat to GGR power.

Canadian Trucker Protest Update items NOTE - NEXT WEEK CONVOY PROTESTS WILL HAVE THEIR OWN ITEM LINE.
- According to the acting Ottawa police chief, it is now unlawful to protest against the govt.
- Ottawa police warn journalists to say out of the protest zone.
- Canadian police on Friday started arresting protesters as part of an operation to end a three-week blockade of Ottawa. This follows arrests of the ‘leaders’ of the protest yesterday.
- Ottawa police are also threatening to remove children from protesting parents as well as conficating pets (euthanization)
- The Canadian Civil Liberties Association (CCLA) announced Thursday that it plans to sue the federal government over its decision to invoke the Emergencies Act in response to ongoing protests and blockades. “Emergency powers cannot and must not be normalized,” said CCLA executive director Noa Mendelsohn. She said use of the act “seriously infringes on the Charter rights of Canadians.”. In a statement released Thursday, Amnesty International also expressed concerns about the act, saying in a French news release that it “raises concerns and questions relating to the respect of human rights.”
- Parliament is expected at this point to endorse, by a thin margin, Trudeau’s declaration of Emergency Powers.

The New Zealand Defense Force (NZDF) warned Wednesday it was poised to deploy “Defence Force assets” to Wellington to disband an anti-coronavirus vaccine mandate protest near New Zealand’s parliament building after the rally pushed into its ninth consecutive day.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - Blue states see the science - political science that is - changing and grudgly rolling back wuhan restrictions and mandates.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday announced the first shift by a state to an “endemic” approach to the coronavirus pandemic that emphasizes prevention and quick reactions to outbreaks over mandates, a milestone nearly two years in the making that harkens to a return to a more normal existence.
OBSERVATION - Read of the plan shows it to be a continued ‘soft’ tyranny with the maintenance of edicts put into effect and resumptions of other mandates/lockdowns ready to go on a moments notice. Population separation on a vaxxed/unvaxxed basis with differing ‘rights’ between them.

New Zealand is fining people for not wanting to get tested for covid. If you don’t pay the fine you can get arrested, have your accounts and property seized, and be put on a no fly list.

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Economy - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Maintaining color code pending first Fed rate increase. Increasing threat of deep recession / depression as the Fed tries to control inflation.

New construction of single-family homes fell sharply and unexpectedly in January as homebuilders struggled with huge costs increases, data from the Department of Commerce showed Thursday.
Single-family home starts dropped 5.6 percent in January compared with the prior month, exasperating a shortage of houses that has sent home prices soaring. U.S. homebuilders started new single-family projects at a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 1.116 million units, 2.4 percent below the rate of construction a year ago.
OBSERVATION - The housing market is on the precipice, demand still high, but loan rates set to take off like a rocket.

Average gas prices is now $3.51/gal. Forecasts now of upwards of $110/barrel for oil, likely to skyrocket if full blown war breaks out in Ukraine.

Stock morket had a shaky week due to Russia/Ukraine war concerns as well as trying to read the tea leaves on how big the Fed will increase rates in the face of record high inflation numbers that came out.

The Senate gave final approval Thursday to legislation averting a weekend government shutdown, sending Biden a measure designed to give bipartisan bargainers more time to reach an overdue deal financing federal agencies until fall. The House easily approved the legislation last week. The legislation will finance government through March 11.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts

A new court document filed in Texas v. Biden reveals that of the 153,941 people who attempted to enter the United States illegally at the southern border in January, nearly 30% were released into the country.
Of the approximately 75,000 migrants who were taken into custody, roughly 46,000 were released into the U.S. on parole or after being placed in immigration court proceedings. Rather than return people to Mexico, federal law enforcement released tens of thousands of migrants into the U.S., despite a pandemic public health protocol requiring they be returned to Mexico and a mandate that noncitizens entering the U.S. at ports of entry be fully vaccinated, the Washington Examiner reported.

The Biden administration is expanding the size of migrant processing facilities on the southern border, a sign it does not see the immigration crisis ending any time soon.
An internal document sent to senior Customs and Border Protection officials, obtained by the Washington Free Beacon, describes plans by the agency to construct three permanent processing facilities for up to 1,000 migrants at a time in Del Rio, Laredo, and El Paso, Texas. An existing temporary U.S. Border Patrol processing site in Yuma, Ariz., will double in size and also be made permanent.
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Biden watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade

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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending neutral to down *updated 01/21/22*
DISCUSSION - Generally quiet activity on the BLM/Antifa front. Rampant crime continues

A Soros sponsored district attorney, José Garza, announced the indictment of a stunning 19 police officers for their efforts to quell the riots during the summer of 2020. A Texas grand jury indicted 19 Austin, Texas, police officers on charges of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon for their actions during 2020 protests over racial injustice that spread nationwide following the killing of George Floyd, sources told The Associated Press. Prosecution of rioters is non-existent.

Less than two years after donating a cool $10 million to “social justice” organizations including the Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation (BLMGNF), Amazon has removed the foundation from its list of approved AmazonSmile charities. The move comes after the states of Washington and California ordered BLMGNF to cease accepting donations immediately until the controversial non-profit resolves serious transparency issues and complies with financial reporting requirements.
OBSERVATION - Most will probably note that tens of millions of dollars raise are missing from BLM coffers and spent by the founders of this BLM ‘organization’ for mansions across the country and Canada.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
DISCUSSION - Democrats scramble to improve public approval prior to the 2022 midterms.

Hillary came out of her hole to address the Special Counsel John Durham’s investigation that appears to be closing the noose around her and her campaign’s actions in the “Russian collusion” scandal.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*

More US troops and equipment deployed to Poland.
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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW

Warnings continue over possible Russian cyber attack in conjunction with any Ukraine invasion.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward

Olympic woes bringing bad publicity.
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North Korea - YELLOW (UPDATED 01/21/22)

Increased activity in missile and nuclear programs.

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Russia - RED * updated 02=18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -

****** Condition raised to RED due to significant increase in combat between separatists and Ukraine forces. No sign of any pull back / redeployment of Russian forces. Noncombatants in the separatist held areas are being evacuated. *******

OSINT and other analysts are noting the continued build up of military assets that go far beyond those necessary for a military ‘exercise’. Putin has seriously deployed for combat and can execute several options at any moment. Current indicators are that Russia is more inclined to launch a full scale attack against the Ukraine with the purpose of overthrowing the government.
Russian backed separatists have significantly increased artillery attacks against Ukraine forces, who’ve returned fire. Russia can use this as an excuse to justify an invasion.

WEATHER - Temperatures are warming above freezing thru mid Feb, increasing likelihood of muddy field conditions.

INDICATORS -
- Civilians reportedly in the separatist Dombass region are being mobilized to evacuate the region.
- Significant 10 fold increase in separatist artillery attacks on Ukraine positions.

*********

Putin demanded on Thursday that the U.S. remove all of its forces from Eastern and Central Europe and expelled U.S. Deputy Ambassador Bartle Gorman from Russia.

A State Department spokesperson confirmed the expulsion of Deputy Chief of Mission Bart Gorman, the No. 2 diplomat at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, and described it as “unprovoked.”

Putin: all Kyiv needs to do is sit down at the negotiating table with representatives of Donbass and agree on political, military, economic and humanitarian measures to end the conflict.
OBSERVATION - Russia in addition to recognizing separatist controlled Dombass region as a separate country is trying to force Ukraine to do the same. This will not stop that conflict as separatists are continuing to try to gain more territory.

U.S. ambassador to OSCE says we assess that Russia probably has massed 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on Jan. 30.
NOTE - OSINT sources have placed the higher number since January.

Russia has agreed to the U.S. proposal for a Blinken-Lavrov meeting in Europe and suggested dates late next week. U.S. will proceed “provided there is no invasion of Ukraine,”

Russia says that Moscow will be forced to respond due to Washington’s unwillingness to agree on security guarantees, according to Russian state news TASS.
OBSERVATION - Based on all the statements on this subject by Russia over the past couple months, the only action that they said they would take is war.

The Russian military on Friday announced massive drills of its nuclear strategic forces. Exercise will include multiple practice launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22*
Engaged in increasing conflict with Russian supported separatists.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba: We categorically refute Russian disinformation reports on Ukraine’s alleged offensive operations or acts of sabotage in chemical production facilities. Ukraine does not conduct or plan any such actions in the Donbass. We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution only.

Interfax reporting the plan to evacuate several hundreds of thousands of people from occupied parts of Donetsk region of Ukraine (Separatist controlled region). Russia denies any knowledge of this evacuation.

Overnight, wires were cut on Vodafone lines in 3 cities in Eastern Ukraine. Zero connection for few hours and was restored by morning.
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Belarus - YELLOW *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION -

Putin expressed satisfaction with the level of integration processes between Russia and Belarus. Russia and Belarus will continue to collectively take measures to ensure security in the light of NATO activity,

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Poland - YELLOW trending upward *updated 121021*

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Friday the planned sale of 250 Abrams tanks to Poland, as Washington moves to strengthen the defense of a key eastern European ally amid a mounting threat of war between neighboring Ukraine and Russia.
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Europe / NATO General - YELLOW TRENDING UPWARD *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.

NATO: We are concerned about Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad and Iskander missiles in Belarus
NOTE - Kalinigrad is a tiny nation along the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania.
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Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Iran continues.

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Iran - ORANGE *unchanged*

Iran’s parliament has refused to end a $10 billion food subsidy scheme fearing protests and unrest. The indirect subsidies are a tremendous burden on the government’s finances since the US sanctions stopped most of its oil export earnings in dollars
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Syria - YELLOW

Significant decrease in Russian operations, likely due to shift of resources to the Ukraine theater.
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89 posted on 02/18/2022 7:52:22 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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