I’ve commented that there are many, what I call ‘vectors’ converging in the late fall time frame that suggest some bad stuff his headed our way. The first is pretty simple – the midterm elections and just what will the democrats do to preserve their power. If left unchecked, it appears that republicans will soundly retake congress. How far will the democrats go to preserve their power? Martial law?
Second is the increasingly obvious signs of biden’s failing health. Any removal would be after the midterms for as to do so earlier would through the democrats further into an electoral tailspin.
Third is the growing shipping/supply chain crisis – See details below, that could hit critical mass in mid-November.
Fourth is the growing implosion of the housing market – an overall bellwether of the nation’s economy.
Fifth is the evidence that the fed will continue its aggressive rate hikes, and may possibly double down and go higher this year.
Sixth, ongoing inflation crisis and growing opinions of CEOs and economists that the Fed’s rate policy is too aggressive now and will put us into a deep recession, starting as early as the end of the year.
Finally, the great unknowns out there such as growing concern over putin pulling the pin and popping a nuke, growing Chinese aggressiveness towards Taiwan, an attempt to arrest Trump, imposition of a US digital currency and rising food production shortages.
I generally reject many of the ‘doomers’ out there who for years have called out that the world was coming to an end (many in an effort to profit from it). But there are times for some realism too. This isn’t doomerism to point out these areas, I think we are well aware of them in one fashion or another. But to pull them together into some kind of chronological context may bring thoughts of doomerism. In reality, it is breaking out of normalcy bias and seeing the world as it really is.
I’ve said before, my daily analysis of world events is for my use to see issues coming up with enough time to react to mitigate their effects. I share these with you here. One thing I can’t miss is the fact that the available time to react is becoming shorter and shorter. It is unbelievable the pace of the past couple years and it shows no signs of slowing down.
Do what you must now because there is a storm coming.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Justin Trudeau, announced the national freeze on the sale, purchase, and transfer of handguns comes into effect. From now on, people cannot buy, sell, or transfer handguns within Canada, and they cannot bring newly acquired handguns into the country.
A national handgun freeze was first announced alongside Bill C-21, the strongest gun control measures in over 40 years, in May 2022. The bill is currently being debated in Parliament.
OBSERVATION – Canada has become another one of the GGR’s beta testing nations. Trudeau’s freeze is currently an executive order type measure pending legislative approval. This action is likely to alienate western states even more. Type trial for the US and the rest of the world.
Canadian Electric vehicle (EV) owners have been shocked to find out that battery replacements for their cars, especially older models, tops $20,000. One EV owner shared his experience, saying: “At the dealership, he looked it up online and said you’re not going to like this,” before delivering a bill of $15,000 plus labor and taxes.
OBSERVATION – It’s not easy being green. High battery replacement costs have been out there for a while, now is becoming more front and center given the increased numbers of EVs out there. Hard for the greens in the GGR to stomach or cause them to slow the push for EVs.
Wuhan virus -
The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ (ACIP) approval of 3-4 dose COVID shots for adults and children starting at 6 months — a first for vaccines still under emergency use authorization — stands in sharp relief to growing reluctance abroad to jab certain age groups and ongoing research documenting serious adverse events.
This with new research finding high post-vaccination hospitalization rate in kids under 5, heart inflammation rates in 12-15 that far exceed their peak COVID hospitalization rate.
OBSERVATION – The vote already has significant push back and the CDC et al scrambling to say addition to the vaccination list isn’t “mandatory”, ignoring the fact that states/school districts rely on the list as its standard for vaccination requirements.
NOTE - Denmark has stopped offering the shots under age 18 and Sweden under age 11, while Finland, Iceland and Norway don’t recommend them for 5-11 year-olds, according to Danish-American epidemiologist Tracy Beth Hoeg. Last month, the U.K. suggested it was phasing out 5-11 vaccination, given the age group’s low risk from COVID and high natural immunity.
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO RISK TO OUR CHILDREN FROM THE VIRUS – ONLY THE ‘VACCINE’
According to a report from Reuters, Pfizer President Angela Lukin announced on Thursday that the pharmaceutical giant will charge between $110 and $130 per dose. This is a 400% increase. However, the shots will be available at no cost to Americans with private or government insurance.
OBSERVATION – Follow the money, honey. “No Cost” – comes at the expense of the insurance premiums which tend to rise as medical costs like this rise.
Economy –
The 10-year and 3-month spread on Treasuries inverted this week, suggesting that recession is now imminent, following expectations from Bank of America that there is a 100% chance of a recession over the next 12 months.
OBSERVATION – I’m taking it at its word.
Kostas Bintas, Trafigura’s cohead of metals and minerals trading, said at the FT Mining Summit on Thursday that global supply of copper is running dangerously low inventories can currently cover 4.9 days of global consumption and could finish the year at 2.9 days. For comparison, copper inventories are typically counted in weeks.
OBSERVATION – Doesn’t explain the overall reason for the shortages. Here in the Redoubt, the local copper mine is pedal to the metal. I suspect that high fuel costs as well as related smelting costs may be part of the blame.
SUPPLY CHAIN WARNINGS – lets pull together some critical items in recent news – and IMHO the potential implications are frightening.
1. Water levels continue to drop on the Mississippi shutting down more and more river barge traffic. No relief in sight
2. Cargo shipping as shifted to east coast ports to avoid backlogs on the west. However, this is causing new backups as these ports are not set up to handle the increased volumes.
3. Railroad strike is looming bigger as key unions are rejecting the White House compromise. May come into play before Christmas (November 19 is the deadline). No signs of compromise.
4. Railroads continue to give preference to its own cars over private cars.
5. Diesel stocks are at 40 year lows, industry analysts estimate only about 25 days worth in storage and production unable to make up the difference and produce fuel oil needed for the winter at the same time. No signs of any improvement in the near term
6. Trucking industry is still 60,000 or so drivers short and incapable of picking up the slack from barge and rail traffic. No signs of improvement short or long term.
These supply line issues look to be coming together to form a perfect storm scenario going into late fall/early winter and probably into 2023 as well. This will cause another serious round of shortages and associated increases in prices that will keep inflation hot.
According to biden -
“This year, the deficit fell by 1.4 trillion dollars, the largest one-year drop in American history,” Biden said. “We’re going from a historically strong economic recovery to steady and stable growth while reducing the deficit. This is the economic vision I’ve had for America.”
The big drop in the deficit from 2021 to 2022 is due to one thing, and one thing only: the expiration of the enormous COVID spending programs. You don’t have to take my word for it. According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “Of the $1.4 trillion drop in the deficit between FY 2021 and 2022, roughly $1.45 trillion—or 104 percent—was the result of shrinking or expiring COVID relief.”
OBSERVATION – Biden gaslights Americans. Additional fact is that the national debt inflated 50% during his regime so far.
Biden / Harris watch –
During an MSNBC interview, it appears that Biden is going to sleep or having some other physical issue.
BIDEN: “It’s my intention to run again.”
Q: “Dr. Biden is for it?”
BIDEN: *silence*
Q: “Mr. President?”
BIDEN: “Dr. Biden thinks that uh, my wife thinks that uh, that I uh, that, that we’re, that we’re doing something very important.”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1583601424968994816
OBSERVATION – Many, even some in the MSM, are noting an increased mental failure of biden. This could lead up to a 25th Amendment challenge and constitutional crisis after the midterms. I am still surprised that he has made it this long into his term.
CW2/Domestic violence -
NYT op-ed has given the green light for eco-terrorists to ruin, destroy and disable property because our “house is burning”.
“You may destroy an inanimate object — and no one in the climate movement is suggesting anything other than targeting dead things — so as to protect living beings. Or, put differently, if you are locked in a house on fire, you have a right to break some windows to get out.”
OBSERVATION – We are seeing some soft forms of this in Europe. This op-ed seems to imply a level of violence far beyond that.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
On Friday evening, a judge granted a motion filed by Missouri and Louisiana calling for key figures in the Biden administration to be deposed in regard to the administration’s work with social media platforms to suppress free speech.
In a Friday tweet, Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt said that the US District Court Western District of Louisiana Monroe Division granted the plaintiffs’ request to depose Dr. Anthony Fauci, former White House Press Secretary Jennifer Psaki, FBI Supervisory Special Agent Elvis Chan, as well as other Biden Administration officials.
OBSERVATION- Lawfare continues on this subject. Expect the left to try to delay and obfuscate as long as possible.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
An annual ranking of U.S. military strength has ranked the nation’s armed forces as “weak” for the first time.
American armed forces are “at growing risk of not being able to meet the demands of defending America’s vital national interests,” assessed the Heritage Founation’s 2023 Index of U.S. Military Strength, the Washington Examiner reported.
“It is rated as weak relative to the force needed to defend national interests on a global stage against actual challenges in the world as it is rather than as we wish it were,” the index said.
OBSERVATION – Heritage Foundation is an American conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C. that is primarily geared toward public policy. Thus it policy positions should be taken into account when considering its view of miliary readiness. That said, it does nail pretty hard some key points that the military / govt admit too that are impacting readiness. As such, it appears to pretty accurately paint the picture that there are serious deficiencies in the military that need to be addressed – by someone other than the progressive democrats currently in charge, who’ve deliberately created the problems the military is facing today.
China –
At its congress, China’s Communist Party enshrined opposition to Taiwan independence into its constitution.
Political intrigue as Chinese former leader Hu Jintao was led out of the closing ceremony of the Communist Party Congress. The frail-looking 79-year-old was sitting beside President Xi Jinping when he was approached and led away by officials. No explanation was given. The two most likely reasons for his departure are that it was either part of China’s power politics on full display, with a leader representing a former time being symbolically removed, or that Hu Jintao has serious health problems.
The Communist Party’s mass meetings are normally highly scripted events, leading to speculation that the timing of Hu Jintao’s departure might not have been an accident.
Hu Jintao represents a very different China to that of Xi Jinping. He ran a much more collective leadership and had to balance various factions represented on the Politburo Standing Committee. The Hu years were seen as a time of opening up to the outside world and increased tolerance of new ideas.
OBSERVATION – Intrigue indeed. DON’T MISS THIS – he was sitting right next to Xi!!!! Most likely a strong statement by Xi now facing a lifetime appointment as president of China that his regime will be the opposite of Hu’s .
Japan –
The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of Standard Missile 6, Block 1 missiles to Japan as part of a $450 million arms sale. According to a Pentagon statement, the deal covers 32 missiles and all related equipment and services. The SM-6 missiles are slated for deployment by Japan’s Air Defense and Ballistic Missile Defense units. The arms deal is part of an overall effort by Japan to build a credible deterrence force ahead of what it sees as a rapidly approaching conflict with China in the East China Sea. (FO)
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Russia may be planning another major withdrawal from the Kherson Oblast in an effort to consolidate defenses east of the Dnipir River.
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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held telephone conversations with the US Secretary of Defense, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The parties discussed the situation in Ukraine and international security. This is the first conversation in months between the two.
RUMINT –
Some analysts say Russian forces will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant to cover their withdrawal and prevent Ukraine’s forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast. The tactical reason would be to provide cover to its retreating forces and to widen the Dnipro River, which Ukrainian forces would need to cross to continue their counteroffensive.” It would also provide a buffer zone around eastern Kherson Oblast that would prevent Ukraine from getting within artillery reach of Russian-occupied Crimea.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.
RUMINT –
Some claim Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Further rumors that Russia is forcing civilians to evacuate and may be using them as human shields to protect Russian pontoon bridge at Kherson.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Reports of widespread Russian air/missile strikes across Ukraine this morning including in the Kyiv region and further west. Reports of stand off airstrikes, cruise missiles from the Black Sea and drone strikes. Ukrainian media reports power cuts across large parts of western Ukraine. The recent Russian missile campaign has reportedly damaged 30-40% of electrical grid so far.
Evidence of some Ukrainian gains in the east, but in all the lines are remaining pretty static.
Kyiv front ——
Missile/drone strikes in the region.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered and sporadic Russian artillery along the border.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian artillery targeted the border region north of Kharkiv with a limited Russian attack north of the city at the border.
Though under tight OPSEC, unconfirmed reports that Russia shelled Ukranian positions near the settlement of Karmazynivka in Luhansk region. This indicates the Armed Forces of Ukraine have advanced to less than 5 km from Route 66 and less than a dozen kilometres from Svatove. Svatove is key to the control of Route 66 and is the main supply route to Severodonetsk, seizing it will cut it off from the North East.
NOTE – This is an example where backdoor intel developed from the detailed battle trackers. General assumption here being Russia will shell Ukrainian positions/troops. By tracking where the Russian shelling is occurring, can generally be used to assess where the front line is – getting around OPSEC measures.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continued attacks centering on Bakhmut but also around Donetsk. Heaviest Russian artillery fire in this sector.
Ukrainian defenders reportedly repulsed Russian attacks on Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka in Luhansk region. Ukraine have also reportedly taken control of Zolotarivka and are carefully advancing on Lysychansk.
Crimean front ———
Unconfirmed reports of the start of a Russian withdrawal from Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipir River. Right now the only significant crossing point is a pontoon bridge next to the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson with some scattered ferries operating.
Senior Russian military staff, Russian occupation authorities and collaborators reportedly first in line. The pontoon bridge has come under a lot of Ukranian fire and has successfully interdicted some of these key personnel. Reports now of forced civilian evacuations under the guise of an impending attack to destroy / damage the dam upstream of Kherson.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Some of the overnight missile strikes hit as far west as Kovel and Lutsk with air defense assets active in the Lviv region
Russian Territory -—
Ukraine shelled Schebekino of Belgorod region, hitting an industrial complex and setting it on fire.
Power station damaged by shelling in Belgorod Oblast, Russia.
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said water and power supply had been partially cut off in the area.
In Belgorod smoke pours from a Russian warehouse. Some Russian channels claim this was a result of Ukrainian shelling.
NOTE – Belgorod being the most significant Russian city within range of Ukranian artillery is now apparently coming under consistent fire.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Well, I’d say same old, same old. Rumors surrounding reported Russian pullout in Kherson and the various other scuttlebutt is a challenge to work through. Best I can discern is the Russian bigwigs are getting out of dodge and any concerted withdrawal of the Russian army across the extremely limited (and under fire) pontoon bridge and a few ferries is very problematical.
Russia is having success attacking Ukraine’s electrical grid via Iranian supplied drones. Though Ukraine has success in downing them, the volume eventually overwhelms local areas. The Ukraine success is also tasking its ADA network supplies.
Waiting to see if the OPSEC, and fog of war clears to provide better intel on what is happening.
Belarus -
Belarusian President Lukashenko: Minsk not preparing to enter the Ukraine conflict
“We are not planning to go anywhere. There is no war as of today. We do not need it,” Lukashenko said.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khreninr said it was predictable that existing tensions would proceed into a war against a West that was “openly demonstrating its readiness to unleash aggression against Belarus.” Khreninr said attempts by the Lukashenko regime to “appeal to reason” and advance “peaceful initiatives” with the West had been “fruitless.” Citing an “unprecedented” buildup of NATO forces who had the capability to strike “the entire depth” of the territory of Belarus, The Minister further characterized drills near the Belarusian border where “Belarus was designated as an enemy,” as deliberate attempts to “build up tension” in the region in “obvious” preparations for war. (FO)
OBSERVATION – More indicators based on rhetoric that Belarus is more focused on Poland/Baltic NATO states than they are on Ukraine.
While all this posturing is going on, there are reports that Belarus has handed over 24 more T-72A tanks to Russia. “belzhd_live” telegram channel reports that 24 more T-72A tanks removed from storage were sent from Belarus towards Donetsk on October 16, 2022.
OBSERVATION – Hard to accept a Belrus/Russian invasion from the north when key items are being shipped out of country.
OTHER INTEL – Unconfirmed information on Belarus and Russian troop movements appear to have them headed towards the southwest portion of the country, and not building up north of Kyiv. This would be in line with Belarus rhetoric directed towards Poland/Baltics rather than Ukraine. Still evaluating the accuracy of these new sources.
Israel -
See Syria overnight air strikes.
Iran -
Protests continue across Iran. Tehran Uni. students bring back a very strong phrase from 1979 revolution-they are marching and chanting “Canons and guns are useless, tell my mother that her son was killed”.
Lebanon -
Lebanese Minister of Health: The cholera epidemic has spread from Syria to Lebanon in the absence of basic services from refugee camps
OBSERVATION - Lebanon is in serious economic woes and now having an epidemic hit it only increases its woes. Much of the wrath for the problems continue to be laid at the feet of Hezbollah who are in essence the defacto leaders of the country.
Syria -
Israeli air raids targeted trucks loaded with missiles belonging to the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, which were being transferred from Damascus Airport and targeted on the Al-Sabourah - Dimas road in the western Damascus countryside.
Ukraine heads up
The resumption of the offensive in northern Kherson Oblast is oh. Multiple separate confirmations of Ukrainian advanceS of over 17 km and reports of Russians fleeing cities and looting.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The “free market experiment is over”, according to a top Tory MP and Rishi Sunak backer Tobias Ellwood, who hopes the establishment favorite will now usher in a “reset”.
Senior Tory Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the Defense Select Committee of the House of Commons, has thrown his weight behind the leadership campaign of the anti-tax cuts former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, arguing that a return to “centrist” government is required and a “reset” necessary — drawing comparisons to the World Economic Forum’s infamous Great Reset strategy.
“Time for centrist, stable, fiscally responsible Government offering credible domestic [and] international leadership. Honored to be the 100th Tory MP to support [Rishi Sunak],” the globalist politician added.
Sunak has strong connections to Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum (WEF), with Sunak’s father-in-law, N. R. Narayana Murthy, the billionaire founder of Indian tech giant InfoSys, being a listed partner of the Davos-based group. Sunak appeared at the World Economic Forum’s Green Horizon Summit in 2020 to push the idea of a “whole of economy transition” to “green energy” sources.
“The challege of climate change is clear and it is urgent,” Sunak said. “We need to ensure a positive and fair transition to Net Zero and protect our environment.”
OBSERVATION – The British swamp appears to be a key player in the resignation of Liz Truss and her 60 day stint as PM. Another clue is that Ellwood, was raised and educated in Germany and Austria, is a fervent Remainer in the 2016 Brexit referendum, and as recently as June argued that Britain should re-join the EU Single Market, claiming that this would mitigate the cost of living crisis and issues with inflation — despite the EU actually having a higher inflation rate than Britain.
This was an aggressive power play by the British swamp to get someone favorable to its agenda back in power. Of course the EU also has strong ties to GGR/WEF goals and desires, ones that Truss didn’t share and Sunak does.
Wuhan virus -
There is a lawsuit being brought forward by Pfizer whistleblower Brook Jackson claiming company’s alleged malfeasance, citing ‘falsified data’ and manipulated clinical trials. It passes a major hurdle in February, the judge ruled that the lawsuit, can proceed to pre-trial discovery phase. It is now on the verge of potentially going to trial.
OBSERVATION – This is an important trial. As noted already, Pfizer and Modera have liability protections under the EUA. These protections can be removed if fraud is proven. I’ve pointed to many articles and findings that lay the groundwork for such fraud, but this is an insider with her hands on the hard core documents proving such. If she succeeds, this could open the flood gates of lawsuits against the two companies and perhaps even complicit govt officials (Fauci et al), who helped cover up the fraud.
A new study shows that nearly everyone getting the mRNA COVID vaccines are experiencing some amount of heart damage. The study out of Switzerland shows that vaccinated people have uniformly higher troponin levels than their unvaccinated peers. Troponin is a type of protein found in the muscles of your heart. Troponin isn’t normally found in the blood. When heart muscles become damaged, troponin is sent into the bloodstream. As heart damage increases, greater amounts of troponin are released in the blood
What the study shows is that nearly everyone is getting a little heart damage when they get the COVID vaccine, some get a lot more damage than others.
OBSERVATION – This report above is second hand. I’ve not been able to trackdown the original study reference. However, it does jibe with heart problems well documented now from the jab and why it hits some worse than others. Worthy on note.
Economy –
More rumblings concerning the liquidity of Treasury bonds and the potential disaster if the country dives into too deep of a recession.
Invasion of Illegals -
In the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, migrants were stopped 2.38 million times, up 37% from 1.73 million times the year before, according to figures released late Friday night. The annual total surpassed 2 million for the first time in August and is more than twice the highest level during Donald Trump’s presidency in 2019.
Nearly 78,000 migrants from Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua were stopped in September, compared to about 58,000 from Mexico and three countries of northern Central America that have historically accounted for most of the flow.
OBSERVATION - See Hegelian Dialect pattern discussion below in CW2/Domestic violence. This is just another vector to create an ungovernable situation that can be used to force a govt solution on an unwilling peoples.
CW2/Domestic violence -
Homicide rates rose by an average of nearly 10% in 50 of the most populated U.S. cities between the third quarter of last year and the third quarter of this year — and are still rising — according to a study by WalletHub, a personal finance website.
WalletHub compared 50 of America’s largest cities based on per capita homicides for the third quarter (July through September) of each year since 2020, using locally published crime data to compile its findings.
According to WalletHub, these were the ten cities with the highest homicide cases per 100,000 residents from July through September:
1. St. Louis, Mo. (19.69)
2. Kansas City, Mo. (14.86)
3. Detroit, Mich. (13.24)
4. Baltimore, Md. (12.45)
5. New Orleans, La. (10.99)
6. Milwaukee, Wisc. (10.46)
7. Memphis, Tenn. (9.99)
8. Philadelphia, Pa. (9.36)
9. Norfolk, Va. (7.78)
10. Chicago, Ill. (7.71)
The top prosecutors in most of these cities are backed by progressive megadonor George Soros.
OBSERVATION – Though obscure to me, the WalletHub study is echoed by numerous others that show the same thing. Blue cities and especially those with Soro-backed DAs have become open crime zones and its getting worse. This is part of the Marxist left’s goals of creating an ungovernerable citizenry. It follows the Hegelian Dialect pattern –
1. The government creates or exploits a problem in which attributes blame to others.
2. The people react by asking the govt for protection and help (safety and security) to help solve the problem.
3. Then, the government offers the solution that was planned by them long before the crisis occurred.
Same pattern being followed by GGR/WEF proponents – see wuhan and climate change pushes.
What’s the outcome? The outcome of all of this is - the rights and liberties exchanged for the illusion of protection and help. It is the ‘cold’ or ‘gray’ CW2 battlefield. Their goal is a global socialist state – one country at a time. One where the left wants the federalization of the police force . Such concentration in the police force to make sure that the federal government has the most control. Control to exert its policies and demands on the sheeple.
POLITICAL FRONT –
J6 has subpoenaed Trump. Fireworks expected and it is doubtful that if forced, he will testify prior to the midterm elections. Reviewed as a desperated gamble by the illegitimate J6 committee.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
A lot of news on the combat brigade from the 101st Air Assault division currently in Poland and its ‘readiness’ to cross into Ukraine and engage Russian forces. This unit has been deployed there since February to bolster NATO defenses. Though essentially a leg unit, it is well trained to operate in a combined arms environment and with NATO allies.
China –
Xi Jinping was elected as the general secretary for an unprecedented third straight 5 year term. According to rules he pushed through, he is set on being in charge of China for the rest of his life. On Sunday he unveiled a new leadership team stacked with loyalists as he looks to consolidate his power. Shanghai party chief Li Qiang was the first member behind Xi to walk into a room packed with journalists, confirming his second-in-command rank and signaling that he will become the country’s next premier.
The pair were followed by anti-corruption chief Zhao Leji, ideology tsar Wang Huning, Beijing party head Cai Qi, top Xi adviser Ding Xuexiang and Guangdong province chief Li Xi. Most have previously worked with the 69-year-old Xi over the years as he shot up the ranks of the party.
This follows the public humiliation of former president Ho who was led out of the congress on live television - allegedly due to a ‘medical’ condition.
North/South Korea -
The recent round of North Korean ballistic missile tests revealed that a new method for launching ballistic missiles had been developed. This one involved the use of an underwater launch tube placed in lakes and used to launch SLBMs (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile). North Korea later claimed that this lake based SLBM launch involved a production model of their SLBM. North Korea already has land and railroad train silos for its ballistic missiles. Use of its air force is questionable due to the age of their aircraft and questionable maintenance status as to be useless for bomb delivery.
OBSERVATION – Unique and thinking out of the box, but not necessarily very practical in the event of war IMHO. Less damage would be necessary to disable such a launch system that would be required for a hardened silo or even finding a mobile system.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. A major withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast appears to be underway as Russian forces once again appear to have been out maneuvered and out gunned by Ukraine.
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Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu is telling colleagues around the world about the possible use of a “dirty bomb” by the Ukrainian authorities, – Russian media reports. NOTE - Suspected false flag propaganda.
Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels announced that Russian regional officials paused the extension of the Wagner Line fortifications that run behind the line of contact in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts and into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. Prigozhin’s efforts and messaging, including the creation of the “Wagner Line,” are increasingly out of line with Kremlin rhetoric and are critical of what Prigozhin claims are slow-moving “bureaucrat-enemies.” Such activism endears Prigozhin to Russian nationalists, who are dissatisfied with limited Kremlin escalation and MoD disorganization.
RUMINT –
Wagner affiliated Telegram channel says Kherson is lost and that it will be worse than the retreat from Kharkiv as they Russians have no way to get out. NOTE – Wagner is in a political scrap with the regular Russian army types over influencing putin and his operations in Ukraine, so there may be a degree of propaganda targeting Russian readers/influencers.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian MOD says the situation in Ukraine is “rapidly deteriorating” in a message on Telegram. Nonspecific but definitely a break in the previous, scripted messages claiming Russian victories. Definitely out of the ordinary.
This “rapidly deteriorating” was evidenced yesterday by another breakthrough and surge in Ukrainian territory in northern Kherson Oblast being liberated.
More unsuccessful Russian assaults on the Bakhmut region.
Noticeable decrease in Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian electrical grid.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered and sporadic Russian artillery along the border.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Widely scattered artillery fire along the LOC to the east.
Russian sources reported Ukrainian continued counteroffensives in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continued attacks centering on Bakhmut but also around Donetsk. Heaviest Russian artillery fire in this sector. Russian sources report some gains, but very minor. Wagner Group mercenaries openly state they are pressing the fight in this region.
Open source satellite imagery shows the development of the “Wagner Line” defenses in the Luhansk region.
Crimean front ———
Overnight news that the Russian lines northeast of Kherson on the west side of the Dnipir have collapsed, allowing Ukranian forces to rapidly seize nearly 20 km of territory. Reports of Russian artillery in the same area were virtually absent.
Ukraine’s general staff confirmed that Russians are abandoning their positions in the northwestern parts of the Kherson front. Now that Ukraine has reached Mylove, Russians are forced to retreat towards Beryslav and Kakhovka dam because they are in danger to get surrounded.
Ukraine’s military command say Russian forces have also abandoned villages in southern Kherson region - left Charivne & Chkalove & officers & medical personnel left town of Beryslav near Nova Kakhovka.
Ukrainian attack appears to be forming up into two pincers. One pincer moving along the west side of the Dnipir, with the second pincer moving down from the north on the east side of the Inhulets River.
Russian occupation authorities are still demanding the evacuation of Kherson and areas west of the Dnipir. So far it seems those leaving consist primarly of Russian occupation personnel, their families and collaborators. Remember Kherson was the only city to surrender to the Russian forces without a fight. There was reportedly a historic lean towards Russia in the town.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Ukraine liberated a big chunk of Kherson Oblast territory yesterday. Russia reportedly is falling back and consolidating defensive positions in order to protect the withdrawal of forces. Such a retrograde action is very hard to successfully accomplish among well trained armies. Russia did divert better trained forces to Kherson to block the Ukraine so they could be partially successful. However, months of short supplies and a dubious escape route may well work its way into the mind of the Russian soldier as they try to hold off the advancing Ukranian army.
Ukraine once again is showing maneuver and combined arms is better than smashing ahead, with a pincer developing that could encircle a significant number of Russian units. Get armor into the rear area and wee doggies do they have fun.
Short term – Russia may try to form a last stand defense at Kherson city.
NOTE on the rumors that Ukraine will blow up the Kakhovka (or the Russians as part of a false flag scenario). Loss of the dam and reservoir would result in the loss of a significant water supply to Crimea. If false flag, it would disrupt any remaining efforts by Russia to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast. Ukraine would not benefit either, losing hydropower to the grid and further endangering the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant’s supply of cooling water.
A Zaporizhzhia offensive has been rumbled about on both Russian and Ukranian circles. A push southward would place Ukrainian forces on the east bank of the Dnipir River, avoiding a costly river crossing operation from the Kherson region. This action could open up space to allow Ukrainian forces to build bridging elements and its forces on the west side to the east side. This axis of attack would again out maneuver Russian forces focusing on holding the east bank of the Dnipir. Depending on the liberation of Kherson, I would expect a Zaporizhzhia offensive to develop in a similar manner as Kherson - intensive battlefield preparation through striking logistics, command posts and troop concentration. It is here that the loss of the Kerch Bridge will be strongly felt as supplies / troops would have to come in from the east or ferried across into Crimea. The question is how will the changing to a winter battlefield conditions affect such an attack. Initial inklings from Ukraine’s war efforts in the east and south suggest that they are prepared and capable of pressing the fight in the winter.
Belarus -
Belarus has cut off transmission of their highway traffic cameras, which coincides with the massive staging of Belarusian, Russian, and PMC along the borders of Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – This also occurred prior to the launch of Russia’s February attack into Ukraine. This has raised the concern of some that a similar operation may be in the offing.
Russian military personnel continue to arrive in Belarus - Ministry of Defense of Belarus
OBSERVATION – These troops are arriving with minimal equipment, generally trucks and vans. No armor/tanks. They are also predominantly recently rounded up mobilization conscripts absent any training.
The French press reports that 3 fiber optics cable in the Atlantic Oceans have been cut, causing connectivity issues worldwide. At the same time the internet access on the British Shetland Islands went offline. Russian submarines are suspected.
OBSERVATION - A lot of talk of sabotague of these two cables, but hard facts are not readily available. The Shetland cut was attributed to a fishing incident (scallop trawler?). However, interception of these key fiber optics elsewhere would endanger the global internet and may just be precursors / practice for when one of these other lines are attacked.
Iran -
Riots/protests continue across the country.
Probably in support of the protests, Anonymous claims it has hacked the website of Iran’s Intelligence Ministry.