Globalism / Great Reset –
The “free market experiment is over”, according to a top Tory MP and Rishi Sunak backer Tobias Ellwood, who hopes the establishment favorite will now usher in a “reset”.
Senior Tory Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the Defense Select Committee of the House of Commons, has thrown his weight behind the leadership campaign of the anti-tax cuts former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, arguing that a return to “centrist” government is required and a “reset” necessary — drawing comparisons to the World Economic Forum’s infamous Great Reset strategy.
“Time for centrist, stable, fiscally responsible Government offering credible domestic [and] international leadership. Honored to be the 100th Tory MP to support [Rishi Sunak],” the globalist politician added.
Sunak has strong connections to Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum (WEF), with Sunak’s father-in-law, N. R. Narayana Murthy, the billionaire founder of Indian tech giant InfoSys, being a listed partner of the Davos-based group. Sunak appeared at the World Economic Forum’s Green Horizon Summit in 2020 to push the idea of a “whole of economy transition” to “green energy” sources.
“The challege of climate change is clear and it is urgent,” Sunak said. “We need to ensure a positive and fair transition to Net Zero and protect our environment.”
OBSERVATION – The British swamp appears to be a key player in the resignation of Liz Truss and her 60 day stint as PM. Another clue is that Ellwood, was raised and educated in Germany and Austria, is a fervent Remainer in the 2016 Brexit referendum, and as recently as June argued that Britain should re-join the EU Single Market, claiming that this would mitigate the cost of living crisis and issues with inflation — despite the EU actually having a higher inflation rate than Britain.
This was an aggressive power play by the British swamp to get someone favorable to its agenda back in power. Of course the EU also has strong ties to GGR/WEF goals and desires, ones that Truss didn’t share and Sunak does.
Wuhan virus -
There is a lawsuit being brought forward by Pfizer whistleblower Brook Jackson claiming company’s alleged malfeasance, citing ‘falsified data’ and manipulated clinical trials. It passes a major hurdle in February, the judge ruled that the lawsuit, can proceed to pre-trial discovery phase. It is now on the verge of potentially going to trial.
OBSERVATION – This is an important trial. As noted already, Pfizer and Modera have liability protections under the EUA. These protections can be removed if fraud is proven. I’ve pointed to many articles and findings that lay the groundwork for such fraud, but this is an insider with her hands on the hard core documents proving such. If she succeeds, this could open the flood gates of lawsuits against the two companies and perhaps even complicit govt officials (Fauci et al), who helped cover up the fraud.
A new study shows that nearly everyone getting the mRNA COVID vaccines are experiencing some amount of heart damage. The study out of Switzerland shows that vaccinated people have uniformly higher troponin levels than their unvaccinated peers. Troponin is a type of protein found in the muscles of your heart. Troponin isn’t normally found in the blood. When heart muscles become damaged, troponin is sent into the bloodstream. As heart damage increases, greater amounts of troponin are released in the blood
What the study shows is that nearly everyone is getting a little heart damage when they get the COVID vaccine, some get a lot more damage than others.
OBSERVATION – This report above is second hand. I’ve not been able to trackdown the original study reference. However, it does jibe with heart problems well documented now from the jab and why it hits some worse than others. Worthy on note.
Economy –
More rumblings concerning the liquidity of Treasury bonds and the potential disaster if the country dives into too deep of a recession.
Invasion of Illegals -
In the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, migrants were stopped 2.38 million times, up 37% from 1.73 million times the year before, according to figures released late Friday night. The annual total surpassed 2 million for the first time in August and is more than twice the highest level during Donald Trump’s presidency in 2019.
Nearly 78,000 migrants from Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua were stopped in September, compared to about 58,000 from Mexico and three countries of northern Central America that have historically accounted for most of the flow.
OBSERVATION - See Hegelian Dialect pattern discussion below in CW2/Domestic violence. This is just another vector to create an ungovernable situation that can be used to force a govt solution on an unwilling peoples.
CW2/Domestic violence -
Homicide rates rose by an average of nearly 10% in 50 of the most populated U.S. cities between the third quarter of last year and the third quarter of this year — and are still rising — according to a study by WalletHub, a personal finance website.
WalletHub compared 50 of America’s largest cities based on per capita homicides for the third quarter (July through September) of each year since 2020, using locally published crime data to compile its findings.
According to WalletHub, these were the ten cities with the highest homicide cases per 100,000 residents from July through September:
1. St. Louis, Mo. (19.69)
2. Kansas City, Mo. (14.86)
3. Detroit, Mich. (13.24)
4. Baltimore, Md. (12.45)
5. New Orleans, La. (10.99)
6. Milwaukee, Wisc. (10.46)
7. Memphis, Tenn. (9.99)
8. Philadelphia, Pa. (9.36)
9. Norfolk, Va. (7.78)
10. Chicago, Ill. (7.71)
The top prosecutors in most of these cities are backed by progressive megadonor George Soros.
OBSERVATION – Though obscure to me, the WalletHub study is echoed by numerous others that show the same thing. Blue cities and especially those with Soro-backed DAs have become open crime zones and its getting worse. This is part of the Marxist left’s goals of creating an ungovernerable citizenry. It follows the Hegelian Dialect pattern –
1. The government creates or exploits a problem in which attributes blame to others.
2. The people react by asking the govt for protection and help (safety and security) to help solve the problem.
3. Then, the government offers the solution that was planned by them long before the crisis occurred.
Same pattern being followed by GGR/WEF proponents – see wuhan and climate change pushes.
What’s the outcome? The outcome of all of this is - the rights and liberties exchanged for the illusion of protection and help. It is the ‘cold’ or ‘gray’ CW2 battlefield. Their goal is a global socialist state – one country at a time. One where the left wants the federalization of the police force . Such concentration in the police force to make sure that the federal government has the most control. Control to exert its policies and demands on the sheeple.
POLITICAL FRONT –
J6 has subpoenaed Trump. Fireworks expected and it is doubtful that if forced, he will testify prior to the midterm elections. Reviewed as a desperated gamble by the illegitimate J6 committee.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
A lot of news on the combat brigade from the 101st Air Assault division currently in Poland and its ‘readiness’ to cross into Ukraine and engage Russian forces. This unit has been deployed there since February to bolster NATO defenses. Though essentially a leg unit, it is well trained to operate in a combined arms environment and with NATO allies.
China –
Xi Jinping was elected as the general secretary for an unprecedented third straight 5 year term. According to rules he pushed through, he is set on being in charge of China for the rest of his life. On Sunday he unveiled a new leadership team stacked with loyalists as he looks to consolidate his power. Shanghai party chief Li Qiang was the first member behind Xi to walk into a room packed with journalists, confirming his second-in-command rank and signaling that he will become the country’s next premier.
The pair were followed by anti-corruption chief Zhao Leji, ideology tsar Wang Huning, Beijing party head Cai Qi, top Xi adviser Ding Xuexiang and Guangdong province chief Li Xi. Most have previously worked with the 69-year-old Xi over the years as he shot up the ranks of the party.
This follows the public humiliation of former president Ho who was led out of the congress on live television - allegedly due to a ‘medical’ condition.
North/South Korea -
The recent round of North Korean ballistic missile tests revealed that a new method for launching ballistic missiles had been developed. This one involved the use of an underwater launch tube placed in lakes and used to launch SLBMs (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile). North Korea later claimed that this lake based SLBM launch involved a production model of their SLBM. North Korea already has land and railroad train silos for its ballistic missiles. Use of its air force is questionable due to the age of their aircraft and questionable maintenance status as to be useless for bomb delivery.
OBSERVATION – Unique and thinking out of the box, but not necessarily very practical in the event of war IMHO. Less damage would be necessary to disable such a launch system that would be required for a hardened silo or even finding a mobile system.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. A major withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast appears to be underway as Russian forces once again appear to have been out maneuvered and out gunned by Ukraine.
********
Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu is telling colleagues around the world about the possible use of a “dirty bomb” by the Ukrainian authorities, – Russian media reports. NOTE - Suspected false flag propaganda.
Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels announced that Russian regional officials paused the extension of the Wagner Line fortifications that run behind the line of contact in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts and into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. Prigozhin’s efforts and messaging, including the creation of the “Wagner Line,” are increasingly out of line with Kremlin rhetoric and are critical of what Prigozhin claims are slow-moving “bureaucrat-enemies.” Such activism endears Prigozhin to Russian nationalists, who are dissatisfied with limited Kremlin escalation and MoD disorganization.
RUMINT –
Wagner affiliated Telegram channel says Kherson is lost and that it will be worse than the retreat from Kharkiv as they Russians have no way to get out. NOTE – Wagner is in a political scrap with the regular Russian army types over influencing putin and his operations in Ukraine, so there may be a degree of propaganda targeting Russian readers/influencers.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian MOD says the situation in Ukraine is “rapidly deteriorating” in a message on Telegram. Nonspecific but definitely a break in the previous, scripted messages claiming Russian victories. Definitely out of the ordinary.
This “rapidly deteriorating” was evidenced yesterday by another breakthrough and surge in Ukrainian territory in northern Kherson Oblast being liberated.
More unsuccessful Russian assaults on the Bakhmut region.
Noticeable decrease in Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian electrical grid.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered and sporadic Russian artillery along the border.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Widely scattered artillery fire along the LOC to the east.
Russian sources reported Ukrainian continued counteroffensives in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continued attacks centering on Bakhmut but also around Donetsk. Heaviest Russian artillery fire in this sector. Russian sources report some gains, but very minor. Wagner Group mercenaries openly state they are pressing the fight in this region.
Open source satellite imagery shows the development of the “Wagner Line” defenses in the Luhansk region.
Crimean front ———
Overnight news that the Russian lines northeast of Kherson on the west side of the Dnipir have collapsed, allowing Ukranian forces to rapidly seize nearly 20 km of territory. Reports of Russian artillery in the same area were virtually absent.
Ukraine’s general staff confirmed that Russians are abandoning their positions in the northwestern parts of the Kherson front. Now that Ukraine has reached Mylove, Russians are forced to retreat towards Beryslav and Kakhovka dam because they are in danger to get surrounded.
Ukraine’s military command say Russian forces have also abandoned villages in southern Kherson region - left Charivne & Chkalove & officers & medical personnel left town of Beryslav near Nova Kakhovka.
Ukrainian attack appears to be forming up into two pincers. One pincer moving along the west side of the Dnipir, with the second pincer moving down from the north on the east side of the Inhulets River.
Russian occupation authorities are still demanding the evacuation of Kherson and areas west of the Dnipir. So far it seems those leaving consist primarly of Russian occupation personnel, their families and collaborators. Remember Kherson was the only city to surrender to the Russian forces without a fight. There was reportedly a historic lean towards Russia in the town.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Ukraine liberated a big chunk of Kherson Oblast territory yesterday. Russia reportedly is falling back and consolidating defensive positions in order to protect the withdrawal of forces. Such a retrograde action is very hard to successfully accomplish among well trained armies. Russia did divert better trained forces to Kherson to block the Ukraine so they could be partially successful. However, months of short supplies and a dubious escape route may well work its way into the mind of the Russian soldier as they try to hold off the advancing Ukranian army.
Ukraine once again is showing maneuver and combined arms is better than smashing ahead, with a pincer developing that could encircle a significant number of Russian units. Get armor into the rear area and wee doggies do they have fun.
Short term – Russia may try to form a last stand defense at Kherson city.
NOTE on the rumors that Ukraine will blow up the Kakhovka (or the Russians as part of a false flag scenario). Loss of the dam and reservoir would result in the loss of a significant water supply to Crimea. If false flag, it would disrupt any remaining efforts by Russia to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast. Ukraine would not benefit either, losing hydropower to the grid and further endangering the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant’s supply of cooling water.
A Zaporizhzhia offensive has been rumbled about on both Russian and Ukranian circles. A push southward would place Ukrainian forces on the east bank of the Dnipir River, avoiding a costly river crossing operation from the Kherson region. This action could open up space to allow Ukrainian forces to build bridging elements and its forces on the west side to the east side. This axis of attack would again out maneuver Russian forces focusing on holding the east bank of the Dnipir. Depending on the liberation of Kherson, I would expect a Zaporizhzhia offensive to develop in a similar manner as Kherson - intensive battlefield preparation through striking logistics, command posts and troop concentration. It is here that the loss of the Kerch Bridge will be strongly felt as supplies / troops would have to come in from the east or ferried across into Crimea. The question is how will the changing to a winter battlefield conditions affect such an attack. Initial inklings from Ukraine’s war efforts in the east and south suggest that they are prepared and capable of pressing the fight in the winter.
Belarus -
Belarus has cut off transmission of their highway traffic cameras, which coincides with the massive staging of Belarusian, Russian, and PMC along the borders of Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – This also occurred prior to the launch of Russia’s February attack into Ukraine. This has raised the concern of some that a similar operation may be in the offing.
Russian military personnel continue to arrive in Belarus - Ministry of Defense of Belarus
OBSERVATION – These troops are arriving with minimal equipment, generally trucks and vans. No armor/tanks. They are also predominantly recently rounded up mobilization conscripts absent any training.
The French press reports that 3 fiber optics cable in the Atlantic Oceans have been cut, causing connectivity issues worldwide. At the same time the internet access on the British Shetland Islands went offline. Russian submarines are suspected.
OBSERVATION - A lot of talk of sabotague of these two cables, but hard facts are not readily available. The Shetland cut was attributed to a fishing incident (scallop trawler?). However, interception of these key fiber optics elsewhere would endanger the global internet and may just be precursors / practice for when one of these other lines are attacked.
Iran -
Riots/protests continue across the country.
Probably in support of the protests, Anonymous claims it has hacked the website of Iran’s Intelligence Ministry.
According to WalletHub, these were the ten cities with the highest homicide cases per 100,000 residents from July through September:
1. St. Louis, Mo. (19.69)
2. Kansas City, Mo. (14.86)
3. Detroit, Mich. (13.24)
4. Baltimore, Md. (12.45)
5. New Orleans, La. (10.99)
6. Milwaukee, Wisc. (10.46)
7. Memphis, Tenn. (9.99)
8. Philadelphia, Pa. (9.36)
9. Norfolk, Va. (7.78)
10. Chicago, Ill. (7.71)
The top prosecutors in most of these cities are backed by progressive megadonor George Soros.
OBSERVATION – Though obscure to me, the WalletHub study is echoed by numerous others that show the same thing. Blue cities and especially those with Soro-backed DAs have become open crime zones and its getting worse. This is part of the Marxist left’s goals of creating an ungovernerable citizenry. It follows the Hegelian Dialect pattern...
This may be an interesting and historic week. Stay tuned.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Rishi Sunak will become British prime minister on Monday unless Penny Mordaunt reaches the threshold of 100 backers to force a run-off vote by party members.
OBSERVATION – As mentioned previously, Sunak is heavily into the GGR/WEFs back pocket as a key player. His selection will pretty much nail down the advancement of GGR/WEF goals for England over the next several years.
Wuhan virus -
Two women have filed lawsuits alleging their husbands died from negligence at Inland Empire hospitals after doctors prescribed remdesivir to treat COVID-19 and then failed to tell them about dangerous side effects of the anti-viral drug.
The lawsuits, filed last month in state court against Kaiser Permanente Riverside Medical Center and Redlands Community Hospital and several of their physicians, allege doctors engaged in fraud by prescribing each of the men remdesivir without their knowledge or consent. Doctors also allegedly failed to explain that the drug is ineffective in treating COVID-19, is toxic to kidneys and can cause death, the complaints say.
OBSERVATION – Important article to read as the other shoe starts to drop. In addition to the fraud being exposed about the jab, Remdesivir / ventilation treatment of wuhan patients lead to more death than recovery. This lawsuit only covers the tip of the iceberg of medical malpractice of insisting on the treatment as the only one allowed – keeping patient/family ignorant and in some instances forcibly out of the decision process. Along with this was the financial incentives – big bucks in reimbursements to the hospitals that used this protocol. Pure evil that hospital staff would so willingly and blindly follow that protocol when it essentially guaranteed the death of the patient.
Economy –
The housing market is in for more pain as mortgage rates continue to soar, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. The warning comes after the existing-home sales report on Thursday showed a 1.5% decline in September to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.71 million units. That marked the eighth consecutive drop and the longest such slump since 2007.
The housing market has been setting off more alarm bells lately. Pantheon Macroeconomics said Thursday the crash has yet to find a bottom, setting up home prices for a dive of up to 20% in the year ahead. And last week, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said he expected home prices to see the second-worst decline since World War II amid aggressive Fed rate hikes.
OBSERVATION – Noted before, the housing market is a significant indicator of overall economic health as it interfaces with so many aspects of the economy. These are not good numbers to be contemplating even as the Fed mulls two more increases to the prime rate.
In the for what its worth department, Musk is musing that the recession may continue into the spring of 2024.
The US Northeast is so short on heating oil that the fuel used to power home furnaces is being rationed even before the start of winter. Some wholesalers in Connecticut are putting retailers on allocation, meaning they can only get a limited amount of fuel based on availability, according to Chris Herb, president of the Connecticut Energy Marketers Association, which represents around 600 family-owned retailers in the state. These retailers must in turn ration their customers.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), residential heating oil in the New England area, in March 2020, was about $2.87 per gallon. It held in that range or lower for the bulk of Trump’s presidency. Not long after Biden entered office, the price began to climb. As of October 17, the latest figure, it’s $5.70 per gallon. At current prices — and keep in mind, these prices are guaranteed to rise in the coming months as demand increases and supply decreases, probably significantly — the cost to fill the typical 275-gallon residential heating oil tank is about $1,567.
That amount of heating oil, according to Shipley Energy, lasts the average home about 56 days — less than two months, but let’s call it two months. Thats $783 per month for heating oil alone, and that’s at the current rate.
OBSERVATION – Heating oil has historically been in tight supply in the NE for a long time now. This problem historically due in part to the region’s refusal to tap into the natural gas reserves in NY and allow the construction of distribution pipelines. This years shortages have been made worse to the production chaos inflicted by biden’s economic attack on the industry. Already stocks of diesel fuel are at a 25 day supply level and dropping. To produce more heating oil, refineries have to cut diesel production to increase heating oil.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that following the November elections, oil markets will be poised to increase toward $125/barrel, suggesting a gasoline retail price average of $5 per gallon across the country.
Invasion of Illegals -
The nearly 2.4 million migrant “encounters” along the southwestern border in fiscal year 2022 – the most ever recorded – included significant increases in September in the number of those from Colombia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, when compared to the same month a year earlier.
OBSERVATION – A repeat I know, but consider that this places the total since the biden regime opened the doors at over 5 million. In the Before Times, I remember that 5 million was the estimate of those living illegally in the US prior to biden. . . . .
Biden / Harris watch –
Kamala Harris was interviewed by WCCO 4 News in Minnesota and she denied she appealed for donations to the Minnesota Freedom Fund in 2020. There is a problem with her denial, though. Her tweet asking for donations is still up. Oops.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
The Department of Justice on Monday will announce U.S. action targeting “malign influence schemes and alleged criminal activity” by a “nation-state actor,” it said in a statement, without naming the entity. It will be a press conference by the attorney general.
OBSERVATION - Filed here, update tomorrow
China –
International reactions to the removal of former Chinese president Ho continue.
North/South Korea -
Warning shots were exchanged between the two Koreas’ maritime border early on Monday, KCNA says. DPRK side fired 10 multiple rocket launcher rounds at around 5.15AM, following ROK warning shots at 3.50AM. The SK military has “strengthened its readiness posture” following NK’s maritime violation and rocket fire - Yonhap
Earlier, a NK ship crossed the Northern Limit Line, causing SK military to fire warning shots.
OBSERVATION – This is a dangerous game of chicken going on and starting to escalate. One miscalculation could set the whole thing off as both nations have developed a big chip on their shoulders.
Japan –
On Saturday, Australia and Japan signed a security agreement to share intelligence and assist each other. The deal was inked by Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida and Anthony Albanese in the western Australian city of Perth.
Meanwhile, according to Reuters, Japan is rebuilding its military in a way not seen since before World War II to prepare for what some policymakers fear is an inevitable showdown with China.
Officials and analysts say that 2027, the next Communist Party Congress in China, could be the year China matches its bellicose rhetoric on Taiwan with action.
OBSERVATION – Japan, as well as other nations in the region, have only a limited window to make preparations for an eventually conflict with China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. A major withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast appears to be underway as Russian forces once again appear to have been out maneuvered and out gunned by Ukraine.
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Russian Ministry of Defense says its forces and measures are prepared for the detonation of “dirty nuclear bomb”.
Russia now just flooding social media and news space with fakes what Ukraine intends to do:
- to blow up Kakhovska dam
- Both Kakhovska and Dnipro dam
- Dirty nuclear bomb at Kherson
- Blow up all 6 units of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
- dirty bomb+same script as Khan Shaykhun(staged)
The “dirty bomb” map being posted today from the Russian MoD is literally the EXACT same one that was released on August 18th in regards to the potential false flag on Zaporizhzhia NPP
NOTE – The whole dirty bomb narrative has all the markings of psyops and even a set up for a false flag. At worse case could even be used as an excuse for a tactical nuke strike.
Margarita Simonyan, the head of Russia Today, announced that RT is terminating cooperation with Anton Krasovsky after his speech in which he wanted to drown Ukrainian children and burn Transcarpathia. “It was wild and disgusting”
NOTE – Krasovsky is an example of the extreme nationalist wing influencing putin.
NUKE WATCH -
Part of Shoigu’s phone calls was a warning of possible uncontrolled escalation in Ukraine if a “dirty bomb” goes off. Some are reading this as another nuclear threat. It was unusual for Shoigu (or Russia in general) to make so many calls to western nations on this one subject.
Kerch Bridge update –
RUMINT –
Dirty bomb and nukes
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight, but were significantly less than the previous 24hrs. There are concerns by some in Ukraine that Russia may be planning a false flag escalation after the UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace’s call with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Foreign Minister of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba said Russian lies about Ukraine allegedly planning to use a ‘dirty bomb’ are as absurd as they are dangerous. Firstly, Ukraine is a committed NPT member: we neither have any ‘dirty bombs’, nor plan to acquire any. Secondly, Russians often accuse others of what they plan themselves
Ukraine made some gains in the east while apparently consolidating gains in Kherson. Russia attacked again in the Bakhmut region and may have even been pushed back.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Widely scattered artillery fire along the LOC to the east.
Donetsk Oblast ——
More of the same, Russians attack Bakhmut and the surrounding regions, with a lot of supporting artillery. Unconfirmed report that Ukraine may have turned the tables by counterattacking out of Bakhmut following the repulse of one of the Russian attacks, recapturing territory that took Russia a month to capture.
Russian launched another attack in the Donetsk region, with artillery support, to no avail.
Crimean front ———
No additional Ukranian advances to note. However, Russia focused much of the artillery of the region towards the pincer coming north out of Davydiv Brid region. Additional artillery along the approaches from Mykolayiv.
Ukranian missile strikes were reported at Russian military targets in the Kherson city area.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Things once again appear to be relatively stable. That can change quickly as Russia is on the ropes in Kherson and as seen last week, Ukraine can make quick advancements. Some speculation that Ukraine is holding back a little because of all the Russian rhetoric and they don’t want to get caught in a trap.
Yes, the Russian claims of an impending ‘dirty bomb’ by Ukraine which can then server as an excuse for a nuke strike continue to consume a lot of oxygen in the news cycles. The overt effort Russia is making to try to pin an unconventional attack on Ukraine could be an attempt to prepare the PR cycle for retribution – the ‘escalate to deescalate’ policy attributed to putin.
With putin losing badly in Ukraine and the totally messed up and unpopular ‘mobilization’, he may be finding himself in a corner, injured. A nuclear option may be his idea of an ‘off ramp’ for the operation.
Belarus -
An estimated 3000-4000 Russian troops are believed to have arrived in Belarus as part of the most recent military build up. In country trackers indicate Belarus and Russian troop movements generally towards the southwestern quadrant of the nation.
OBSERVATION – Still low likelihood of any attack coming out of Belarus in the near term.
Israel -
See Syria on airstrikes
Israeli Minister of Defense Gantz told his Ukrainian counterpart Reznikov that “due to operational limitations faced by the State of Israel, Israel will not provide weapon systems to Ukraine”
In related - An Israeli Minister on Sunday urged the country’s government to provide military aid to Ukraine amid reports that Iran will supply Russia with ballistic missiles during the ongoing conflict. “This morning it was reported that Iran is transferring ballistic missiles to Russia,” tweeted Israel’s Diaspora Affairs Minister Nachman Shai. “There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict.” “The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid as well, just as the USA and NATO countries provide,” he demanded.
OBSERVATION – Will Iran supplying Russia with missiles be the game changer as far as Israeli support goes?
Iran -
Protests continue. Iranian govt response becoming more violent with IRGC/Basij attacking students at Yasuj University Iran.
Iran’s military is conducting large-scale military drills on its border with Azerbaijan, including practicing crossings of the Aras River, which defines a large part of the border between the two states. The exercises are apparently aimed against Azerbaijan’s policy of getting a land corridor to Nakhcivan as a part of peace treaty with Armenia.
“Iran will not permit the blockage of its connection route with Armenia, and in order to secure that objective the Islamic Republic of Iran also launched a wargame in that region,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in an October 19 interview with the IRNA news agency.
OBSERVATIONS – Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have accelerated following the Armenian/Azeri conflict. The two countries have been at odds for some time before that as well. Armenia counts on support from Tehran, one of the few nations that has come to its aid against Azeribaijan.
Syria -
Assad’s forces backed by Russia bombard with heavy artillery the outskirts of the villages of Benin, Shanan, Majdalaya and Al-Ruwaiha in the southern countryside of Idlib, Syria
OBSERVATION – Long simmering behind all the other world news. Syria’s civil war continues. This is the biggest action in a number of months. Russia has been out of the net due to Ukraine, so for them to poke up here is notable
Israeli missile strikes targeted the positions of the Pro-Assad forces and Iranian militias in the Dimas area and the residences of the Republican Guard in Damascus.
The Israeli Air Force has reportedly destroyed an Iranian drone factory in Syrian territory during a bombing raid Saturday.
The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported the facility assembled unmanned vehicles whose parts were manufactured in Iran and then secretly shipped to Dimas in southern Syria, according to news outlets Ynet and Haaretz.
OBSERVATION - No indication that this facility is shipping any drones to Russia, but were being constructed for local use eventually against Israel.