Replies

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Sri Lanka Is the latest experiment by the GGR before taking it globally.
Sri Lanka tried to implement GGR Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scoring. To meet this desired score, President Rajapaksa forced farmers to grow food organically and banned the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, thus causing the nation’s rice crop to fall by 20% in the first six months. Crop productions dropped 40-50%. Food shortages were the result. Inflation also rose to 54.6% as of June.
Sri Lanka incurred outrageous expenses importing food and “organic” fertilizer in an effort to maintain food production. Tea production, Sri Lanka’s largest export, was decimated. And with inflation half a million Sri Lankans slid into poverty.

OBSERVATION - While Sri Lanka is not a direct threat to our security, it does expose the application of GGR goals and means of attaining those goals - and the resultant dumpster fire. ESG scoring is one element of Blackrock’s efforts to force the economy here towards GGR goals. Its roots are communistic, pure and simple. Like in the Netherlands, one key avenue of attack is farming - purposeful food shortages. Remember the adage - he who controls the food controls the people. We may well be seeing this on a different track here and elsewhere with the fertilizer shortages that will affect our crop yields.

IN RELATED Canadian researchers want to study how much carbon is released into the air from cow burps and farts. That study would open the door for the federal government to put a carbon tax on cow burps and farts like New Zealand implemented.
In an interview with the Western Standard, University of Alberta researcher Cameron Carlyle talked about a new study he’s putting together to measure the carbon released into the air from cow belches and toots.
“I was just in a meeting … to discuss trying to put together a new project where we tackle that question because it’s an important one for the beef industry,” said Carlyle.
“And it’s an important one for conservation of grasslands … from the beef industry perspective. They’re criticized for their greenhouse gas footprint, which is largely emissions from cattle. So, all their burping of methane out into the atmosphere.”

OBSERVATION - Anything to attack food production - even asinine things like cow burps and farts.

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Wuhan virus -

In a study published in the Journal of Clinical Medicine, the researchers concluded that there is “no increase in the incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in COVID-19 recovered patients compared to uninfected matched controls.” This Israeli study contradicts the findings of earlier studies that suggested there may be a connection between cardiac inflammation and coronavirus infections.

OBSERVATION - This study firm indicates the increased myocarditis and pericarditis cannot be blamed on the disease itself, but on the jab.

ADDITIONAL OBSERVATION - Along the similar lines, the term “excess deaths” has been running for some time now in regards to wuhan as separate from deaths associate with wuhan. I haven’t commented much in the past on it as hard facts were too lean. Now with a lot of money - in the form of life insurance payouts - coming forward, forcing a closer look by the medical establishment. New reports out of England indicate that there has been an increase of 163% in life insurance claims. These are not “statistical fluctuations.” The deaths are all caused by a huge intervention that is affecting the health of millions of people. Again, these aren’t wuhan deaths. Evidence is pointing to the COVID vaccine as the culprit.

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Economy -

Oil will hit $140 a barrel with recession risks overplayed, Goldman Sachs says. This is based on an analysis that the economy will weather the recession better than anticipated, maintaining high oil demand. This is counter to what recessions commonly produce - decreased demand due to decreased economic activity.

In Medford OK, authorities responded to a massive explosion at a natural gas plant. Residents living south of Main Street asked to evacuate immediately. Expect delays in approval for repairs like the other plant.

The Fed is looking at the probability of high inflation rates. The consumer price index is expected to rise to nearly 9% in June from a year earlier, a fresh four-decade high, based on the median projection of economists in a Bloomberg survey. This will likely push them to raise their benchmark rate 75 basis points for a second consecutive meeting on July 27.

OBSERVATION - In spite of these potential numbers, the is a lot of hopium out there that that price pressures at the producer level are stabilizing as commodities costs — including energy — retreat. What I see is that these inflationary rates are projections of future costs increases as those additional costs work their way through the system and we won’t see them for a couple of months.
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Invasion of Illegals -

The Department of Homeland Security anticipates as many as 161,000 children coming across the border alone without a parent or guardian this year, surpassing last year’s record, according to federal data obtained by the Washington Examiner. Children arriving at the border and taken into Border Patrol custody at the border, children are turned over to HHS to be placed with an adult sponsor in the U.S., oftentimes a family member or family friend.
Shortly after Biden took office in January 2021, the number of unaccompanied children coming across the border rose to record highs. From February through August 2021, 112,433 unaccompanied children were found after crossing the southern border, more than the previous 12-month record of 80,000 set in 2019.
The monthly figures in each month of Biden’s first year were higher than the yearly totals between 2004 and 2009, data compiled by the Migration Policy Institute show.

OBSERVATION - Just another facet of the complete breakdown in our country’s immigration system. These kids disappear into there “system” unless/until they are involved in crime and arrested.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

RUMINT- The Democrats are planning to arrest former President Trump in a desperate bid to turn the tide ahead of their imminent midterm election defeat, according to reports. The Democrats hope their planned arrest of Trump just before the midterms will spark a ripple effect that will foment into more “mini insurrections” .

OBSERVATION - RUMINT in that they are actually planning to execute this. There has been plenty of talk recently on the left of having Trump arrested on bogus Jan 6 related charges. This takes it a couple steps further with an indicated purpose of fomenting violence via “mini insurrections”. No doubt these ‘insurrections’ could serve as a basis for some level of martial law or federal actions that could alter elections, allowing a fresh democrat steal of the vote or even cancelling it - keeping democrats in charge. Democrats are looking for an excuse to derail the apparent red tsunami coming in November and are apparently willing to approach a civil war to keep power.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Japan -

Yamagami reportedly believed that Abe was the leader of an unnamed religious group that broke up his family and bankrupted his mother. Japanese media is breaking it’s silence on the religious group that Shinzo Abe’s assassin had a grudge against, it is the Unification Church. His mother allegedly became involved in the group, and the assassin believed Shinzo Abe to have ties to it.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia issued a final warning on the Kaliningrad embargo yesterday, with the Spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova saying:
“If the situation will not return to normal in the coming days, Russia will take harsh measures against Lithuania and the European Union.”

Logistics -
- Another night of Russian ammo dumps being savaged by Ukraine long range assets, in large part associated with the use of HIMARs missiles. Unconfirmed reports that as a result, ammo is starting to be rationed to some units.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia is moving reserve forces from across the country and assembling them near Ukraine for future offensive operations, British military intelligence said on Saturday.

- The UK Ministry of Defense asserted that many current Russian reinforcements are “ad hoc groupings, deploying with obsolete or inappropriate equipment” as compared to better-equipped Russian first echelon units from the beginning of the war.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with increasing thunderstorms and rain over the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine continues to hammer Russian ammo/supply dumps. Russian tries to maintain pressure in the east thru artillery and limited ground attacks.

While the famine is growing around the world, gain harvests in areas occupied by Russia Kherson region are burning. Reported by the media and the local residents. Ukraine is blaming deliberate Russian targeting of ripe fields of grain, but it is more probable that these fields are catching fire form the artillery and associated combat by both sides.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued air, artillery, and rocket strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure and settlements north, northeast, and east of Kharkiv. Kharkiv itself continues to be hit by Russian missiles. Russian forces continued localized attacks northwest of Kharkiv City, likely in an effort to defend Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the area by keeping Ukrainan artillery out of range.

Artillery fires from Izyum continue to focus along the axis of the E40 main road. Control of the E40, which links Donetsk to Kharkiv, is likely to be an important objective for Russia as it attempts to advance through Donetsk Oblast. Ukranian counterattacks on the southwestern margin of the Izyum salient are working to keep some Russian forces pinned and prevent them from joining the attacks to the south and south west.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Described as “relentless” shelling of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk continues. Russian artillery likely being used to preempt any Ukrainan counter attacks while Russian units ‘pause’ to reman and rearm. This doesn’t mean Russian ground forces have been entirely inactive.

Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults northwest of Slovyansk and conducted offensive operations east of Siversk from the Lysychansk area. This is seen as consolidation efforts and preemptive operations to stop any Ukranian counter attacks.

Russian forces continued launching ground assaults south of Bakhmut but did not make confirmed territorial gains.

Russia lost 35 tanks in one attack today in failed attempt to advance south from Dovhenke. It is the most devastating loss of Russian tanks and armor in one single attack during the war.

Russia is back to targeting apartment buildings with missiles. Most recent attack is in Chasiv Yar where 30 reportedly have been killed when their apartment building was hit by MLRS rockets.

Further to the southwest along the LOC, Russian forces were relative quiet, believed to be improving their positions.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian artillery hit all long the LOC with no significant ground operations by either side.

Crimea Front -
Liberation of Snake Island eases navigation from Danube River to Black Sea.
According to the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority, ships are now allowed to use the Danube-Black Sea Canal in the Danube Delta

There are reports of civilian evacuation efforts are underway for parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. The rumored reason is that a Ukranian offensive is anticipated.

Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces are focusing on defending Kherson and restraining Ukrainian advances with “available fire means,” implying that Russian forces are facing worsening logistics problems in the region.
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Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance -
Reports of sabotage of railing lines in the Crimea front region, interdicting trains coming across the Kirsch Strait bridge .

Ammunition / logistical sites hit - NEW
With all the ammo sites being hit, I’ve decided to just listing them here.
In the past 24 hours Ukraine has hit ammo dumps in Torez, Shakhtersk, Illovaisk, Zuhres , Alchevsk, Khartsyzsk, Kherson City International Airport in Chornobaivka and Chystiakove.

Of particular note, the ammo dump at Shaktersk, about 50km from the front line, resulted in a massive series of secondary explosions. Things got so bad that the occupation authorities began to evacuate people from some parts of Shakhtersk. Fire could be seen from 20+ miles way. This is the SECOND warehouse to be targeted this week in Shakhtarsk.

Massive secondary explosions were also noted at Alchevsk.

Ukrainian intelligence has documented the exact location for many of these sites for YEARS now. Never had the tools to take care of them so effectively until now.

Russia may have a 10:1 artillery superiority, but how long can that hold if they have no ammo to shoot?

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Both sides are taking a breather of sorts. Russia continues to try to control the tempo in the east with a lot of artillery fire.

There appears to be increased indicators that Ukraine may be close to kicking off an offense in the south towards Kherson. I’ve commented in the past that this would endanger Russian supply lines coming up through Crimea. Indicators are that Russian forces have been stripped of a lot of their reserve forces, diverted to support the fight in the east, with the quality of the remaining forces degraded. With control of a key river crossing at Davydiv Brid to the north and strong positions between Kherson and Mykolaiv to the west-northwest, Ukraine has the potential to take a good portion of Kherson Oblast back.
Ukraine may further be in a good position to do this given in spite of the loss of land in the east, they are falling back onto even better defendable land to the west - with more secure LOCs, while Russia loses some of its advantages of concentrating firepower.

Finally, replacements for Russian personnel and equipment losses are indicating that they will be coming in as less combat capable or equipped as the original forces. Unlikely that they will be able to create much of an advantage other than being cannon fodder, forcing Russia to rely more on Wagner group and other mercenaries to lead key attacks.

Finally, speaking of cannon fodder, I expect to see more impacts from Ukrainan strikes on Russian ammo dumps in the coming weeks. If they cannot keep up the volumes of fire like they have, then their ground offensive will suffer severely. Russia may have to rely more upon ammo dumps further away from the front, to avoid having more dumps closer to the battle being hit. This will place an increased stress on Russian logistics to keep they ammo hungry artillery supplied. This also may play into the hands of partisans who could target the relatively unprotected convoys.

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Europe / NATO General -
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Germany is now rationing hot water, dimming its street lights and shutting down swimming pools as the impact of its energy crunch begins to spread like the proverbial Ice-Nine wave, from industry to offices, leisure centers and residential homes. The reason behind Germany’s slow motion paralysis is well-known: the huge increase in gas prices triggered by Russia’s move last month to sharply reduce supplies to Germany has plunged Europe’s biggest economy into its worst energy crisis since the oil price shock of 1973. This has created a run on fireplaces and wood/pellets.

On Sunday, Lithuania will start implementing the EU embargo also on cement and alcohol that Russia is transporting from Belarus to Kaliningrad through Lithuanian territory. Russia is threatening actions against Lithuania and the EU unless the embargo is lifted. (See Russia section above)

Four passenger aircraft have over the last few days lost GPS signals when flying in Norway’s northeastern region. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, jamming has been registered more than 20 days.

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Middle East / N. Africa General -

Biden on Saturday defended his decision to travel to Saudi Arabia saying human rights would be on his agenda as he gave a preview of a trip on which he aims to reset ties with the crown prince, who he previously denounced as a pariah. Biden will hold bilateral talks with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and his leadership team, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on his visit to the Middle East next week. The president will first stop in Israel on his July 13-16 trip.

OBSERVATION - Though biden is loath to say it, he is begging increased oil production. However, I think gulf states are still reluctant to ‘help’ the president given the profits they are raking in after years of limited returns.

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Iran -

Iran has begun to use advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium at the underground Fordo facility, according to an International Atomic Energy Agency report obtained by international media on Saturday. Iran has told the IAEA it only plans to reach 20 percent enrichment with the upgraded centrifuges, below the necessary 90% needed for a nuclear weapon. However, it is only a small step to go the rest of the way to obtain the 90% level.

OBSERVATION - I’m pretty sure the Mossad has serious assets monitoring this development an d new plans afoot to throw a monkey wrench into the works. This is getting close to the final red line for Israel.
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Black Swans -

More about water. In this case too much The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued numerous major flood warnings across southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales (NSW) with a severe weather warning remaining current for several parts of the region. Multiple major flood warnings remain current for north-eastern NSW including the Tweed, Richmond, Wilsons, Clarence, Brunswick rivers and Marshall Creek. Authorities are describing the situation as unprecedented and warning the worst is yet to come!
* At least 8 people have been killed and three remain missing in Queensland after a year’s worth of rain fell on parts of the southeast.
* Record river flooding has been reported, in parts of the region 2 m (6.5 feet) above record.

I am on the road tomorrow and most of Wednesday. I expect to be back on line fully by Thursday.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

See China below - using the wuhan app as a social credit population control beta run.

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Wuhan virus -

Schumer has tested positive for wuhan, in spite of getting all four shots.

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Economy -

The real-time GDP tracker run by the Federal Reserve, called GDPNOW, fell into negative territory weeks ago and remains there even now. On Friday afternoon, it registered a 1.2 percent contraction in the economy in the second quarter.

The median forecast for the consumer price index (CPI) is 8.8% for its year-over-year measure and will be released officially this Wednesday, yet another result that takes inflation up to its 40-year high. This confirms expectations that the Fed will increase rates by at least 75 basis points at its July meeting on the 26-27th.

Economists look at the price of copper as an indicator that the economy is at risk of recession, and it is flashing red. Historically, when its price goes up, so typically goes the economy. But when its price starts to fall, it could mean the economy is heading in the same direction.

Copper is now trading at about $3.57 per pound. That is a steep and aggressive decline from its peak of $4.94 in March — a nearly 28% decline in just a matter of months. The U.S. GDP in the first quarter of this year declined by 1.6%. Seems the two are hand in glove.

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo admits that inflation is a “problem,” but she doesn’t think we should be “talking ourselves into a recession.”

OBSERVATION - Remember, this is the same administration that was saying to us last year that inflation was ‘transitory’.

The US drought Monitor has expanded the nation’s doubt footprint and is now reporting that 70% of the U.S. is affected by abnormal dryness/drought. The service notes drought conditions are rapidly expanding in the Ohio, Tennessee, and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Drought conditions also grow throughout the midwest, negatively impacting agriculture and crop yield. Drought conditions currently affect 30% of Corn, 22% of soybeans, 19% of wheat, and 68% of Cotton Crops. (FO)

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Biden / Harris watch -

The New York Post headline reads “Biden’s approval rating craters to 30% after brutal week.” A Saturday Civiqs poll revealed reports that just 29 percent of voters approve of Biden. Media stories question if biden it too “old” to be president.

OBSERVATION - MSM attacks on biden are almost unprecedented. openly attacking a democrat president ahead of a crucial midterm is unbelievable, unless the powers that be ar looking to dethrone him - but then they have to deal wit harris.

Biden said Sunday he is considering declaring a public health emergency to free up federal resources to promote abortion access, even though the White House has said it doesn’t seem like “a great option.”

OBSERVATION - That would be a bad option. Hard to get around the Hyde amendment and would be seen by most as a petty political action.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Continued attacks on pro-life affiliated organizations/buildings. A few more churches were vandalized/set on fire over the weekend.
Otherwise, BLM/Antifa action levels have dropped to very low levels - exceptions being some limited violence in typical strongholds like Portland.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Air Force announced that promotion opportunities for enlisted troops will significantly decrease, delivering a crushing blow to new airmen who were hoping to climb the ranks in the near future.
A press release from the service attributed the decrease in promotion opportunities to restructuring, a decrease in end-strength numbers and higher retention levels.

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China -

Hundreds of people in China’s Henan province attended a banking protest on Sunday which turned violent after a clash with a group of unidentified men.
Protesters said the banks had frozen their deposits because of supposed upgrades to their internal systems, but had not been in communication since. Some 39bn yuan ($5.8bn; £4.9bn) is believed to have been frozen, leaving hundreds of thousands affected. Chinese Banks stopped depositors from withdrawing money back in April and have not enabled withdrawals since.

Some bank customers who had visited Zhengzhou later said they had run into issues on their Covid-19 tracing app, which in many Chinese cities is necessary for residents to enter buildings and shops, use public transport or leave the city. If this status turns red, it indicates the person has tested positive for Covid recently or is suspected to have Covid, and must be quarantined for 14 days. Some customers of the four banks said their status had turned red, despite their not having been in contact with any Covid cases.

OBSERVATION - China’s economy is in a world of hurt. Rumors are afoot that the govt has taken the funds fo its own use. Second aspect of this story is the govt’s use of the wuhan passport app to control peoples responses and movements. This is a beta version of what to expect from an eventual social credit passport / credit system that the govt can use to control the population.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

South Korea’s military said on Sunday it had detected the trajectories of what appeared to be shots fired by North Korea, possibly from multiple rocket launchers (MLRs).

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Japan -

Shinzo Abe’s political party wins supermajority in parliamentary elections. The supermajority will allow the coalition to change Japan’s pacifist constitution, opening up the potential for the country to become a military power.

OBSERVATION - Japan has been trending to increase its military over the past several years facing increased aggressive actions of China and Russia. The urgency may have been made greater with the rise of the biden regime and shaky support from the US.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Logistics -
- Observers noting trains full of rail road ties - suggesting that Russia is working hard to maintain the rail network in captured regions that are being destroyed by artillery and partisan efforts.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Wagner Group is offering 4-month contracts to volunteers with a 240k-rubles-a-month salary plus bonus (150k-700k rubles). Volunteers are trained in Molkino, and they are recruiting for engineer, artillery, armor, and other specialties.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with increasing thunderstorms and rain over the 10 day forecast period

RUMINT - I’ve commented on Russian milbloggers being very negative towards putin and the military’s handling of the war. These are not hack but folks who’ve been there, done that for the Russian govt. One of the biggest names out there is former Russian FSB officer - Igor Sterlkov, the man who crossed the border to lead the original 2014 Donbas “separatist” uprising, a veteran of Bosnia, and both Chechen wars. He has recently been complaining of Ukraine HIMARS success against Russian ammo, logistics and command posts saying the strikes have lead to high personnel losses and ammunition shortages. His and other milbloggers voices have become so loud that Russia is looking to censor them.
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24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Zelensky has ordered the liberation the south of Ukraine according to Minister of Defense Reznikov. To do so Ukraine is mobilizing a million man army.
NOTE - At the start of conflict, mobilization of one million was started. Now four months into this there are a lot of these reservists trained and ready.

Russian missiles of all kinds have been striking more civilian/residential areas of Ukraine. Increased use of old or altered systems (KM-22 and S-300 for example) with relatively poor accuracy is making matters worse.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian army continue to shell border communities of Sumy and Chernihiv regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More artillery fire around the region with very heavy missile strikes on Kharkiv.

Donetsk Oblast -
Continued “relentless” shelling of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk continues. Russian artillery likely being used to preempt any Ukrainan counter attacks while Russian units ‘pause’ to reman and rearm. There have been limited Russian probing attacks, but nothing significant.

Crimea Front -
Substantial Russian artillery strikes along the Kherson - Mykolaiv border with Mykolaiv getting hit with 6 missiles overnight. Increased artillery may be due to Ukraine’s announcement of an offensive in the south.

Ukraine reportedly destroyed a Russian command post and communication systems in Tavriysk .

Russia jets launched 11 Kh-31 missiles at Odesa region
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Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance -
Nothing significant to report

Ammunition / logistical sites hit - NEW

Overnight there were at least 11 new missile strikes on Russian military targets suspected to be by HIMARS.
Big Explosions occurred in Mariupol, Alchevsk, Shakhtarsk, Kirovske, Khartsyzk, Chystiakove, Zuhres, Prydorozhnje, Ilovaisk, Kalina Mine & Leninskyi District in Donetsk City and Nova Kakhovka

2 HIMARS missile strikes were also reportedly conducted on Chornobaivka in Kherson destroying Russian equipment, command posts, and ammunition warehouses

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Both sides are taking a breather of sorts. Russia continues to try to control the tempo in the east with a lot of artillery fire.

A lot of news continues regarding suspected HIMARS strikes on Russian ammo dumps and CPs. Some of these attacks could have been pulled off with conventional artillery, but many sites are located up to 50 KMs from the front. Russia seems powerless to stop/intercept these strikes.

Ukraine projecting an offensive in the south puts Russia on the horns of a dilemma. They just don’t have the forces and equipment to face a major offensive toward Kherson and Crimea. They have the bulk of their efforts focused on the east, leaving lesser quality and equipped forces in the south and west. Ukraine OTOH has far better defensive terrain in the east as well as must be seeing the effects of their interdiction strikes on Russian command and logistics. Additionally, defense can be achieved with fewer forces.

Other sources look at the southern offensive being linked to the flood of western arms and munitions. With Ukraine mobilization into its fourth month, there are plenty of motivated troops for them to draw on.

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Belarus -

Putin and Lukashenka in a phone call discussed possible joint response to Lithuanian restrictions on goods transit to Kaliningrad.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko might be bracing for a revolt from his own military officers after they recently expressed their opposition to the Russian war in Ukraine.
Senior officers from the fifth brigade of the Special Forces warned in an open letter to Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, against sending troops to fight in Ukraine, describing that such decision is “pure suicide,” the Express reported Saturday.
“By entering the war against Ukraine, Belarus will be evicted from the community of civilized states and will be an international outcast for many years to come,” the military officers wrote.

OBSERVATION - Lukashenka is the weakest link in Putin’s web. He is facing potential rebellion from his military if he gets too involved in supporting the war against Ukraine. I’ve noted in the past the military’s reluctance to get involved and these warning letters from elements of the Special forces should get his undivided attention.
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Poland -

Poland PM’s Morawiecki’s speech at the 77th anniversary of the Augustów Roundup, where at least 600+ Poles were killed by the NKVD: “We’ll never allow a Russian soldier to step on Poland soil again. We’ll never let that happen, unless one of them wants to kneel under one of those crosses.”

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Europe / NATO General -
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EU nations are scrambling to prepare for a likely complete cutoff of Russian gas. France believes that a cutoff of Russian gas is the most probable outcome, while Germany scrambles to get coal plants back on line.

Expectations of Russia weaponizing gas against Europe’s major economies have grown since Nord Stream drastically cut gas supply to the EU. Inffact Nord Stream 1 is down today for ‘maintenance’, european authorities are concerned Russia won’t turn the supply back on.

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Middle East / N. Africa General -

Biden still in the process of final plans for his middle east trip.

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Iraq -

Turkish aircraft launched attacks on Kurdish forces in N Iraq, the most significant action in weeks.
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Syria -
Turkish Defense Minister Akar says that his country is being targeted by armed forces in northern Syria, especially from Manbij and Tal Rifaat, and indicates the increase in military attacks against Turkish forces in those areas. Further, Turkey will not postpone the military operation in northern Syria.

OBSERVATION - This operation has been long announced, yet delayed for weeks.

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Turkey -

See Syria and Iraq above.
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