Replies

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Globalism / Great Reset -

.This is a harbinger of things to come - though the effect is economically based, its is part of the plan of the GGR to kill not only fossil fuels, but maintain economic chaos.
In May, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) announced it would be raising the default market offer (DMO) – or the price providers are allowed to charge their customers – with the changes coming into effect from July 1.
The hikes mean Queenslanders could see an increase of up to 12.6 per cent, while those in NSW could see up to 18.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent in South Australia.
From August 1, one of the country’s biggest retailers, AGL, will slug NSW electricity customers close to 18 per cent, likely to lead to many households paying annual increase of hundreds of dollars.
The prices of some smaller energy companies are also set to soar after July 1, with ReAmped and LPE increasing their prices by 100 per cent, while Discover Energy will increase by 285 per cent and GloBird by 147 per cent.

OBSERVATION - This is the bold, new world the GGR wants for us.

Farmers in the Netherlands are none too happy with govt plans to shut down farms in the name of meeting new climate goals. Farmers have taken to the highways, setting up blockades. They have also gone a far as spraying manure at the local town hall in Lochem.

OBSERVATION - They should be happy they aren’t in New Zealand where the govt wants to implement a tax on cow farts and burps!
Reality - Expect the push for radical (and stupid) means to attain “climate goals” to accelerate, even to the point of wuhan style ‘emergencies’ being declared.
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Wuhan virus -

A former Pfizer employee turned whistleblower says that the main goal of the COVID-19 injections falsely being labeled “vaccines”, is to weaponize a human being’s immune system to kill itself. Karen Kingston, a former Pfizer employee, and current analyst said that the ingredients in the Pfizer “vaccine” are “poison.”
“Their mission statement is harnessing the immune system’s full potential to fight human disease,” Kingston read on a slide projected on the screen during her appearance at “Matrixxx Grooove with Jeff and Shady” on Brighteon.TV. “I mean, this is straight out of ‘Agent Smith’s mouth.’ I don’t mean to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but then BioNTech is like ‘we’re gonna edit people’s immune system so it kills themselves.’”

OBSERVATION - If Kingston’s word can be verified and accepted, this would be a huge crime. Rumors of the Pfizer jab being designed to damage the human immune system have been out there for over a year now, and medical studies are beginning to leak out verifying its danger. However, the weight of the current regime and the associated medical community / big pharma are keeping honest studies at bay.

Biden and Dr. Anthony Fauci have touted the Pfizer drug Paxlovid as an effective treatment for COVID-19.
But Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease official, said Tuesday he experienced a rebound of COVID symptoms after he was treated with the drug, DailyMail.com reported.
In fact, Pfizer’s own trial data showed the drug may not be effective for people who have received a COVID vaccine. Fauci has been “double-boosted,” meaning he has received four doses of the experimental mRNA vaccine. And in May, the Centers for Disease Control issued a formal warning that a course of Paxlovid could produce a rebound of COVID-19.

OBSERVATION - Can’t say I’m sorry for Fauci. He destroyed the lives of millions. Remember, he lied about the coronavirus shots to be virtually 100% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 before gradually lowered their estimations to as low as 20% after only six months.
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Economy -

As Reuters reports, the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), which operates under DOT Secretary Pete Buttigieg, has prevented Freeport LNG’s 15 million tonne per year (mtpa) Quintana plant in Houston, TX, exacerbating the global energy crunch.

“Continued operation of Freeport’s LNG export facility without corrective measures may pose an integrity risk to public safety, property or the environment,” PHMSA said in its preliminary report, after a problem with a safety valve led to an 18-inch stainless steel pipe to overpressurize and burst. This released LNG and methane, leading to the blast.”

“The actual process (of reviews, repairs and approvals) will take longer than three months, and potentially take six to 12 months,” said Alex Munton, director of global gas and LNG at consultants Rapidan Energy Group.
According to the report, PHMSA ordered the company to submit a plan within 60 days for an outside investigator to report on the extent of the damage to the facility - and gave no indication of how long it would take to approve a plan. Freeport must also contract with a third-party to review the condition of its LNG storage tanks. Then, and only then, can the company submit a repair plan, derailing their goal of a partial restart in September, and full operation by year-end.

OBSERVATION - Fully expect the administration to do everything in its power to delay the needed repairs on this plant. this is a situation not unlike the baby food plant, delay, delay delay. Again, energy crisis to cram the green agenda down our throats.

This July 4th holiday weekend Americans are paying an average of $4.822 for gas. This is down from a peak of $5.02 just a couple of weeks ago.

California on Thursday approved a plan to tax the electric vehicle battery metal lithium to generate revenue for environmental remediation projects despite industry concerns that it will harm the sector and delay shipments to automakers.
The tax is structured as a flat-rate per ton and will go into effect in January. The tax will be reviewed every year, and state officials have agreed to study potentially switching to a percentage-based tax.
The largest American state sits atop giant lithium reserves in its Salton Sea region, east of Los Angles, an area heavily damaged in the 20th century by years of heavy pesticide use from farming. Funds generated from the tax are earmarked in part to cleanup of the area.
Two of the area’s three lithium companies warned the tax would scare off investors and customers. Both said they may leave the state for lithium-rich brine deposits in Utah or Arkansas.

OBSERVATION - Once again the leftist nut jobs in Kalifornia find a way to kill the goose that lays golden eggs.

A US Supreme Court decision could force California’s 70,000 truck owner-operators to stop driving is set to create another choke point in already-stressed West Coast logistics networks, a truckers’ organization said. The USSC upheld Kalifornia bill AB5 which designated independent truckers as an employee of any trucking firm they are contracted with. As a result, they are considered to be an employee entitled to job benefits The trucking industry relies on contractors, and has fought to be exempt from state regulations for years because of federal law.

OBSERVATION - Either through the loss of truckers or increased shipping costs (as those benefit costs are shifted to consumers) this is not a good thing. The trucking industry is already hurting by the lack of trucks and this will not help matters either.
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Invasion of Illegals -

RUMINT - There is talk about biden granting citizenship to illegal aliens flooding across the southern border with a Presidential Executive Order shortly before the mid-term election in November. The purpose would be to allow illegals to vote in the midterms.

OBSERVATION - Such a move could create near revolt on border states and other red states. Such an over the top order could be the final straw that starts open separation of red from blue. Almost unthinkable, but still RUMINT - needing close monitoring to see if there really a plan to screw this country in this manner.

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Biden / Harris watch -

biden found a new villian for high gasoline prices - the stations themselves. In a tween biden said - ‘My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product. And do it now.’
biden’s tweet was hammered by leftist Bezos who tweeted in response “Ouch. Inflation is far too important a problem for the White House to keep making statements like this. It’s either straight ahead misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics.”

OBSERVATION - More throwing spaghetti on the wall to see what sticks. So wrong that Bezos couldn’t refrain from responding.

President Joe Biden’s approval rating is down to the lowest of his presidency, at only 31 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval, according to the CIVIQS rolling job-approval average as of Saturday.

OBSERVATION - More and more he is a drain on the rest of the democrats in congress. Nearly 3/4 of democrats don’t want him in the WH, let alone run again. This is stimulating a secondary effort of “anyone but Harris in 2024) movement. However, the amount of damage these two have caused to this nation in just two years in almost incalculable and what they can do over the next is mind boggling apocalyptic.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Haven’t tracked this much as it has been throughly covered by other FR thread, but with time new evidence is coming forth that the J6 riot wasn’t not what is being claimed by democrats. Internal email reveals day before Jan 6 riot, US Capitol Police intel unit warned “BLM from Baltimore” was bussing in rioters: “BLM/Antif will wear MAGA hats, wear camo, and attempt to blend in with MAGA crowd” so violence blamed on Trump supporters attending Trump rally.

OBSERVATION - BLM/Antifa actions are entirely within their MO and numerous reports are out there saying the same.

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

A Seattle man was arrested for reading aloud the Gospel of Saint Matthew in a public park as a “Gay Pride*” event was taking place.
Matthew Meinecke, often referred to as a “street preacher,” was on public property reading aloud from the Bible without the benefit of amplification when he was rousted and then arrested by Seattle’s finest.

OBSERVATION - Expect a lawsuit.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

The webpage of the U.S. National Archives that hosts the nation’s founding Constitution has a “harmful language alert” for readers at the top of the page.
The warning now occurs on many pages on the archives.org website and links to a page entitled “NARA’s Statement on Potentially Harmful Content.”

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Heavy rain has flooded North Korea’s region containing its core nuclear reactor, state media reported.
“Yongbyon county is the area that has received the most rainfall this monsoon season in North Phyong province,” KCTV claimed.

OBSERVATION - No word if the nuclear facility has faced any damage.
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Japan -

Japan is to consider acquiring pre-emptive strike capability in response to an increasingly assertive China, North Korea and Russia.

OBSERVATION - This trend has been increasing since biden took control and Japan realized the US was increasingly an unreliable partner in security matters.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war .

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia’s capture of Lysychansk and the potential control of Luhansk Oblast puts the battle in eastern Ukraine into a new phase and analysts watching to see if it can maintain the initiative and press on, or pause for a breather.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian defense minister Shoigu reported to Putin that Russian troops have completely captured Luhansk Oblast of Ukraine. This follows the apparent loss of Lysychansk to the Russians.

Logistics -
- Ukraine artillery / missile strikes on ammo and other logistical sites have been increasing in numbers and success.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Russian MoD posted a slideshow of images that reportedly prove that Gerasimov still holds his position as Chief of General Staff

- Russian media reported on July 2 that a volunteer battalion of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Northern Fleet is preparing to deploy to Ukraine. his battalion consists of reservists, volunteers, military policemen, servicemembers from coastal defense units, and sailors from various naval vessels, which likely means that the volunteers are inadequately trained and do not have the requisite infantry experience to be effective in high-intensity combat.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot and dry over the 10 day forecast period.

Ukraine hit significant Russian supply targets overnight. While Lysychansk appears to have fallen in the east and with it control over Luhansk Oblast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces apparently captured Lysychansk and as result in all of the Luhansk Oblast is coming under Russian / separatist control. Russia also continued extensive missile strikes across Ukraine, striking mostly civilian targets (while claiming

Ukraine has answered recent Russia missile attacks by hitting Russian supply depots in Kursk & Belgorod with Tochka-U systems and another depot in Melitopol with the HIMARS system.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue center attacks on the ground in an effort to force Ukrainan forces from the border and get the upgraded Ukrainian artillery away from covering the supply routes to Izyum.
The Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Kraken Special Unit, Konstiantyn Nemichev, stated that Ukrainian forces will use US-provided HIMARS rocket artillery systems to disrupt Russian GLOCs running through Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Izyum. Kupyansk is a significant logistical hub for Russian forces operating on the Kharkiv axis and is located approximately 50km from the frontline. Vovchansk lies approximately 15-20 km from the frontline, but Russian operations in northern Kharkiv have prevented Ukrainian forces from targeting Vovchansk with indirect fire thus far. Russian GLOCs to Izyum are the most exposed, approximately 15km east of the nearest frontline, and NASA FIRMS heat anomaly detection has observed heat anomalies consistent with indirect fire attacks in wooded areas west of Izyum in recent weeks.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continues to launch attacks through the sector.

Reports that Russian has captured Lysychansk. Ukranian forces are reportedly staging a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk, resulting in the Russian seizure of the city” Russian forces, under heavy covering artillery fire, are attempting to squeeze the remainder of the pocket from the north and south.

With the encirclement and capture of Lysychansk, Russian forces how have initial control of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Intense artillery and air strikes by Russian / separatists along the entire front.

Melitopol in occupied Zaporizhzhia region reportedly got hit hard overnight. From the accuracy of the strikes on what looks like two targets, possibly HIMARS were used. Geolocation of videos from the strikes in Melitopol last night suggest two logistics/storage areas near the airfield were struck.
The mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, says Ukrainian armed forces have launched 30 strikes and destroyed one of four Russian military bases located in the city.

Crimea Front -

‘Near Mariupol, a landing craft of the Black Sea Fleet D-106 blew up on a mine,’ said a Telegram channel related to the Russian navy near Mariupol. The crew is said to have survived the friendly-fire incident, but the reputation of Russia’s naval commanders is not so unscathed.

Ukraine forces continued limited counter attacks, liberating Ivanivka (northwestern Kherson Oblast)

More details coming out of the Russian withdrawal from Snake Island. Apparently they made a hasty withdrawl, leaving a number of Pantsyr S-1 SAMs and other systems on the island (such as a Russian Tornado-G MLRS), many of which Ukraine later destroyed (after Russian aircraft failed to hit them).

Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
There are injured following a large explosion in Belgorod with secondaries, suggesting an ammo dump was hit.

In Belgorod, after explosions in the city “due to the operation of air defense” (Russian translation)
* Three people are dead.
* Four people are injured.
* 11 apartment buildings and at least 39 private homes were damaged. Five homes were destroyed completely.
This via Vyacheslav Gladkov: governor of Belgorod Oblast.

Seems to be a growing consensus that a majority of the damage we’ve seen so far is from Russian interception efforts.

Kursk was also hit overnight by probable Tochka-U missiles, likely striking ammo storage sites. 2 Tu-141 Strizh drones were also shot down over Kursk.

Partisian Resistance -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

One key item that may have also assisted Russia’s successes in the east - that is the end of the Ukrainan “mud” season. Little rain and high temperatures have dried out the soils, permitting off road maneuvering for Russian forces that have been largely denied through out much of the war. This has permitted a higher concentration of ground units to advance over a broader area rather than being concentrated in a linear fashion being road bound. OTOH, Russian forces are reportedly severely depleted and that their maneuver must be covered by the extreme artillery fire cover.

I expect Russia to launch a large missile strike operations in response to Ukraine’s. Kyiv, Kviv, Odessa among others in the likely cross hairs. Ukraine appears to have put the capabilities of the western supplied longer ranged weapons to good tactical/strategic use and observers are monitoring to see how effective the reduction of Russian munitions will be on the fighting.
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Belarus -

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko says Ukraine had tried to strike military facilities on Belarusian territory three days ago, but all its missiles had been intercepted, the state-run Belta news agency reported.
Lukashenko, who did not provide evidence for the claim, said Belarus did not want war with Ukraine, but would fight if its own territory was invaded. Says now Belarusian missiles aimed to “centers of decision making against Belarus”

Lviv is preparing to counter a possible Belarusian offensive in West Ukraine to cut off western supplies.

OBSERVATION - Belarus’ military is still one of the most poorly trained and equipped forces in Europe. This is still in spite of recent Russian supplied equipment and numerous readiness exercises. The Belarus military doesn’t want to go to war and Lukashenko faces open rebellion If he tries to force war.

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Poland -

A year after migrants started crossing into the European Union from Belarus to Poland, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and top security officials visited the border area on Thursday to mark the completion of a new steel wall.

OBSERVATION - A remembrance to the before times when the dangers of the region were Belarus enabling illegal islamic migrants to get into Poland.
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Europe / NATO General -
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The European Commission plans to issue a clarification that will allow Russia to resume sending supplies to the exclave of Kaliningrad via Lithuania. Berlin supports the idea, but some in Vilnius are not pleased. Moscow will be allowed to use the transit route for all goods, but only limited amounts.

OBSERVATION - Looks like the EU/NATO dodged a bullet here, but the Baltic countries are not pleased with this as it seemly looks like they are being left out to dry in the gray conflict zone with Russia.
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Israel -

IDF shot down three Hezbollah drones heading for the Karish gas field today, using F16 jets and navy ships. Some analysts believe I they could have been a potential variant of a Samad drone made by Iran.
Israeli intelligence had Intel about Hezbollah’s attempted attack on Karish natural gas field, Intel that led to the IAF and the Israeli Navy being put on high alart prior to the attack.

Israel bombed early this morning the Costal Area for the first time this year. Warehouses were blasted few km SE. of Tartus-city. Bombardment came from the sea.

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Syria -

Turkish attacks in the northern part of the country continue to remain relatively muted. Currently has been limited to artillery and drone strikes.
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Libya -

Long relatively quiet since a wobbly truce was implemented between its warring parties. Now in the vacuum created by Russian pullout to support its war in Ukraine the stability of the nation is once again in flux.
Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) declared force majeure on crude exports from its oil terminals amid continued blockades of production and ports, which have severely crippled Libya’s oil exports.
The force majeure comes after weeks of protests and closures amid the new rift in Libya’s political class over who should be governing the country.

OBSERVATION - Though not a major player on the oil market, any loss at this stage will pressure costs globally higher. The absence of Russian influence is likely making matters worse.
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Well, as the echos of the fourth fade into the 5th, I think about the hundreds of dollars per minute expended by ordinary citizens, across my little city here in the Redoubt. Where every one got that money from for such fire power amazes me given the costs put on us by biden’s crashing of our economy. But still spectacular just the same.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Dutch mayors declaring states of emergency and mobile police units deploying to disperse farmers protesting the “nitrogen” rules for cows under a national “climate change” policy.
Blockades at food distribution centers led to empty shelves in Dutch stores today.
There were also tractors and other vehicles staging blockades on highways and at bridges across the Netherlands among other locations.
Arrests have been made. There have been fines issues to hundreds in connection with the blockades.

OBSERVATION - GGR mandated global warming emission policies are being applied to the periphery countries, those deemed by GGR insiders/country’s politicians, as being the most compliant or ready for imposition. However, these farmers are not going down without a fight and may temporary awaken the citizens to the utter nonsense these “climate change” policies will have on their country. REMEMBER - He how controls the food can control the population.
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Wuhan virus -

Former White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx revealed that the federal government was relying on “hope” that COVID-19 vaccines would prevent infection when officials publicly stated that Americans who received the jab would become immune to the virus.

OBSERVATION - Though Birx et al would be loathe to admitting it, the jab has in many ways now is showing itself as making the plandemic even worse.
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Economy -

Provident Bank, based in New Jersey, found that 83% of respondents slashed personal spending due to soaring prices of food and gasoline, with 23% indicating they had to make “drastic changes” to their spending for financial survival.

According to the survey results of 600 adults, 10.5% of respondents eliminated all non-essential purchases, and nearly 72% said they made at least some changes to personal travel habits.

While some consumers have cut back on some non-essential spending, like dining out and unnecessary travel, others reported much more drastic changes such as skipping meals, conserving water, and eliminating meat from their diets. People are feeling an immense amount of financial pressure right now. Unfortunately, this is not surprising after the Labor Department reported earlier this month that the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit a 40-year high in May. — Provident Bank

Respondents said rising prices of groceries and gas had put the most significant dent in their pocketbooks. According to the survey results, 53% said they now spend between $101 - $500 more per month on groceries, and 32% spend between $101 - $250 more on gas. They also said that skyrocketing prices of baby products, meat, utilities, household goods, milk, and alcohol have led to economic discomfort.

OBSERVATION - Except for the wealthy (who’s support for biden seems to remain high), this has hit EVERYONE. Sorry democrats, Roe isn’t what will drive the midterms, economics will.
LET ME BREAK IT TO YOU - Even a red tsunami this fall will not turn things around, as the embedded swamp in DC will keep the momentum going towards melt down. The GGR needs this to gain global power.

Driven by rising energy costs, consumer prices in Eurozone jumped 8.6% over the year through June, hitting another record high since the creation of the Euro in 1999. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 8.6% in June 2022, up from 8.1% in May according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

OBSERVATION - Yes, this is Europe, not the US but it serves as an indicator of what to expect in the US as well, since global economies are so tightly tied now a days.

More than 5 million barrels of oil that were part of a historic U.S. emergency oil reserves release aimed at lowering domestic fuel prices were exported to Europe and Asia last month, according to data and sources, even as U.S. gasoline and diesel prices touched record highs.

OBSERVATION - These barrels of oil were ‘sour’, technically high sulphur that our refineries are poorly set up to handle - desiring the ‘sweet’, lower sulphur oil like from the middle east. What isn’t seen is a reverse flow back of either sweet oil or refined gasoline and related products.

Rail congestion is threatening grain deliveries to feed users, according to the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA), which reports that some major meat producers have very low supplies. California-based Foster Farms reported feed shortages so bad that they’re considering killing off millions of chickens. The NGFA is warning that conditions may worsen by September.

OBSERVATION - I noted this story a few weeks ago. Things are now getting worse and may even worsen still. Poultry prices to continue to be high for the foreseeable future.

Global oil and gas operations will come under additional strain this week as workers in Norway begin striking against low pay. Trade union officials say they have plans to escalate the strikes this week, which will lead to a 50-60% reduction in oil and gas exports.

OBSERVATION - Direct impacts to Europe that will echo back to the US as Europe looks market wide for replacement during the strike.

Citigroup is warning that a recession this year could cause the price of oil to collapse to $65/barrel, a roughly 40% drop from today’s price of $105. The estimate forecasts an eventual decline to $45 by the end of 2023 if the recession is prolonged. Currently, Citi’s economists do not expect a recession, however, they expect that recessionary risks will continue to increase as the Federal Reserve navigates its interest rate hiking cycle. (FO)

OBSERVATION - This reads to me like hopium. A recession will impact oil demand, but also hit production hard as well as the oil industry. Citi is swimming against the flow by being anti-recessionist, as most major banks are ‘banking’ on it.
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Invasion of Illegals -

“We were very pleased with the Supreme Court’s decision” that says the Biden administration can end the Trump administration’s “remain in Mexico” immigration policy, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said on Sunday. “And we continue to enforce immigration law, as is our legal responsibility,” he said.

OBSERVATION - Obscenities and curses at Mayorkas.
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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden renewed his gun control push following the July 4 attack on a parade in the Highland Park suburb of Chicago.

OBSERVATION - As noted below, the shooter was another wacked out leftie - perhaps democrats / leftists should be disarmed.

OBSERVATION - Conservative commentators and analysts are viewing the recent unfavorable news reporting on biden and his junta as part of an effort to get him removed from office or at least prevent him from trying to run in 2024. Their problem is that they are stuck with harris or the evil witch of Arkansas - hillary.
Quite frankly, I’m surprised biden has remained in office this long.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Considerable gun and other violence over the 4th. Two key events

First - 22-year-old Robert E. Crimo III, killed 8 in a wealthy Chicago suburb of Highland Park, wounding dozens. He was a wannabe rapper and leftist. Social media is currently being overrun by people trying to say he was was a MAGA guy. The evidence that he was part of or at least supportive of Antifa and other far-left domestic terrorist groups is far greater.
He has been captured by police. Evidentially he was known to law enforcement, and his father, a former mayoral candidate who ran for mayor in 2019 was well aware of his son’s mental issues. I’ve not seen any word on the type of rifle used other than it was ‘high powered’.

Secondly, Riots broke out in Akron, Ohio, following the shooting by police of Jayland Walker. The incident occurred in June, but release of police bodycam footage has sparked the riots. Rioters claim he was unarmed when shot, but facts show he fired on police. BLM/Antfa affiliated groups are pushing the violence and there is evidence they art trying to build the same narrative as with Kenosha, Wisconsin and Brooklyn Center, Minnesota. Critical that we keep eyes on this to see if it gains traction as the midterms approach, serving as a catalyst for more violence.

Other shootings and violence elsewhere across the nation. Notably in the Antifa/BLM strongholds like Chicago, Portland, DC, etc. In DC Antifa militants in black bloc marched for a direct action over abortion on Monday night, chanting the threat popularized by terror group, Jane’s Revenge: “If abortions aren’t safe, neither are you.”

OBSERVATION - The Antifa loving leftist nut job in Highland Park doesn’t help the democrat narrative and may soon drop off the screens. BLM enhanced rage in Akron may develop into something more wide spread but hasn’t really gotten the press coverage that the 2020 riots did. This does show that another summer of rioting is building.

The city of Orlando, Fla., is apologizing for an invitation to attend its July 4 fireworks display that declared the country is now full of “so much division, hate and unrest.”
“A lot of people probably don’t want to celebrate our nation right now, and we can’t blame them. When there is so much division, hate and unrest, why on earth would you want to have a party celebrating any of it?,” reads the announcement sent last week that appears to try to be funny or sarcastic.
“But in all seriousness, you know in your heart, Fourth of July fireworks are amazing, especially when you are standing in 90° heat, 100% humidity, next to 100,000 of your closest friends,” the statement continued. “In that moment, something takes over and we all become united in an inexplicable bond. Yes, America is in strife right now, but you know what ... we already bought the fireworks.”
However, city officials issued an apology Saturday, amid the backlash, according to local NBC affiliate WESH-TV2.
“The city of Orlando sincerely regrets the negative impact our words have had on some in our community,” the statement reads. “We understand these words offended some of our residents, which was not our intent. We value the freedoms we have in this country and are thankful to the men and women who fought and continue to fight for those.”

OBSERVATION - Blue cities/leadership cannot but help to attack America, as its founding core principles are antithetical to their marxist beliefs and goals.

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Domestic Terror -

Article from Front-page mag (h/t Oorang) discusses the likelihood of Iranian terror cells in the US preparing to go into action mode. The biggest ongoing threat is to kill former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and CIA Director Gina Haspel in retaliation for their role in the drone strike that killed Suleymani and 17 others on Route Irish at the Baghdad airport. They have other capabilities as well.

OBSERVATION - Back in the before times, much of TM was focused on AQ (and other islamists) terror cells continuing to operate in the US after 9/11. Key to cells of this sort is keeping off the radar screen and hitting when the time is ripe. Well, this country is a ripe as ever. Iran (and radical islamic elements) recognize strength and will exploit weakness. biden is projecting weakness on a mammoth scale. Given the key emphasis of assassinating officials associated with the drone strike that killed Suleymani, I think the strong probability of an assassination attempt is the most likely course of action rather than a larger terror strike. Much less chance of blow back.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments

U.S. Air Force F-35A stealth fighters arrived in South Korea on Tuesday on their first publicly announced visit since 2017 . Joint military drills had been publicly scaled back in recent years, first in 2018 because of efforts to engage diplomatically with North Korea and later because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The six F-35As will be in South Korea for 10 days, South Korea’s Ministry of Defence said in a statement.
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China -

South Asia is becoming a growing problem for China. India (officially) and a growing number of Pakistanis (unofficially) see China as a major threat. Currently China continues to move more troops to the Indian border to confront Indian forces and slowly advance into Indian territory. China has not been idle in areas where there is little direct military confrontation. Along the Indian border Chinese troops and engineers continue building roads, structures and fortifications. Lately the border conflicts with China have remained quiet, mainly because China has more urgent problems to deal with. One of those problems does impact India. China backs the military government in Myanmar (Burma).
Read more at this link for a good detailed account.

https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/20220705.aspx

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Continued warnings of a potential nuclear test at any time as OSINT suggests that work at the test site is complete and all is ready.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war. It has now been 77 days since the Russians launched the Battle of the Donbas.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
It is likely that there will be two simultaneous actions. First, Russian forces that expended themselves in the main effort will pause and maybe even rotated to the rear to re-arm and re-man. Secondly, Russian forces on the flanks will pursue attacks backed by greater artillery support.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Putin reportedly celebrate and congratulates his generals on the seizure of Luhansk Oblast, and indicates that the fight will go on to seize the rest of the Donbas region. Putin also stated that the Russian units that participated in the battle for Lysychansk should rest to increase their combat capabilities.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot and dry over the 10 day forecast period with chances of thunderstorms.

The weekend has been rather hard on Ukraine forces, being forced to withdraw out of Luhansk Oblast. But one has to keep in mind, it took Russia 77 days to achieve this Phase 2 goal!!! Huge amounts of men and munitions were expended in a tactical situation that Russia already had an advantage in - closure of a pocket of Ukrainian resistance. Some have likened this to other battles of WW2, noting that this battle has far exceeded the others in time, personnel lost and material.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine forces are withdrawing to a new series of defensive lines from their stronghold in Sloviansk to Bakhmut, some 45 kilometers to the south. Ukrainian missile units continue pinpoint attacks on Russian ammo/munition depots.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions. Russian army launched over 60 projectiles, including missiles at Sumy region this morning. Damage in Shostka and Seredyna Buda

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued air, artillery, and rocket strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure and settlements north, northeast, and east of Kharkiv. Russian counterattacks largely unsuccessful

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continues to launch attacks through the sector.

Considerable artillery attacks continue in eastern Ukraine with intensified shelling of Sloviansk and the neighboring city of Kramatorsk. Reports that Russian forces are in the process of clearing pockets of Ukraine resistance. Further reports that Ukraine is withdrawing forces in an orderly manner to the west. As noted above, Ukraine is falling back on defensive lines from their stronghold in Sloviansk to Bakhmut, some 45 kilometers to the south.

Russian forces are beginning to institute administrative occupational control over Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Evidence that Russia is moving forces south of Izyum in the direction of Barvinkove, suggesting that Russian forces are preparing for renewed offensives southeast of Izyum towards Barvinkove. Russian forces in this area have been largely stopped by Ukraine forces over the past month. NASA FIRMS data for July 4 showed large concentrations of heat anomalies in the wooded areas to the southeast of Izyum indicating probable locations for Russian indirect fire and Ukrainian counterbattery fires.

OBSERVATION - NASA FIRMS satellite imagery has been a newfound tool for OSINT analysis, providing detailed supporting documentation of reported major artillery or missile strikes.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Intense artillery and air strikes by Russian / separatists along the entire front.

Explosion at Russian / Separatist military warehouses at Topaz plant in Donetsk.

Russian ammo dump in Stakhanov (Kadiivka), Luhansk region hit.

Russian ammunition dump was hit far behind the lines in Snizhne, Donetsk Oblast (approximately 75 km from the frontlines). Fire lasted for hours with numerous, massive secondary explosions.

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russian ammunition depots in Dibrivne, Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian army launched missiles at Bashtanka, Mykolaiv and Shostka in Mykolaiv region.

NASA’s FIRMS data showed abnormally high numbers of fires along the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast frontline on July 4, indicating intense indirect fire attacks. Russian and Ukrainian forces continued shelling across the line of contact along the entire Southern Axis on July 4.

Russia has been taking action to protect the bridge from Crimea into Russia. This has been a key artery of their resupply to the fight. Recently, they conducted a ‘smoke’ exercise to try to obscure the bridge. They have also deployed barges with metal cubes designed to confuse radar targeting by weapons system. Clearly they are concerned that Ukraine has some tricks up their sleeves and that by taking out the bridge Russia would be faced with a grave logistical situation.

Western / Central Ukraine -
Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 missiles over Dnipro city this morning, 7th hit a house in Pokrov

Russian Territory -
The Bryansk Governor says Zernovo village on the border of Ukraine was shelled.

The governor of Kursk oblast announced the shelling of villages on the border with Ukraine.

Partisan Resistance -
According to reports, two trains en route from Crimea to occupied Melitopol have been disabled today. One went off the rails apparently due to guerrilla actions and the second was struck by MLRS near Melitopol.

Ukrainian partisans reportedly blew up a railway bridge near occupied Lyubimivka between #Melitopol and Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast on July 3 and reportedly derailed a separate Russian armored train near Melitopol on July 2.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - With the apparent fall of Luhansk Oblast to Russia, Russia’s next moves(s) come into question. Some think Russia will temporally pause to consolidate control of the recently captured territory before pressing the attack westward towards Ukrainian positions in Siversk before turning to Slovyansk and Bakhmut. This assumes a Ukrainian withdrawal to Siversk allowing Ukrainian forces reduce the risk of immediate encirclement, but Ukrainian forces may continue a fighting withdrawal to a line near the E40 highway from Slovyansk to Bakhmut. Russian forces will likely continue efforts to move west of the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway to eventually drive on Bakhmut and Siversk, although some analysts and observers question their ability to do so successfully following losses sustained during attempts to take Lysychansk is questionable.

Putin’s statement indicating a limited pause in the operation for those forces that fought for the capture of Luhansk Oblast. However, he indicated that these forces comprised one of three ‘battle groups’ and that the other two groups will continue (proceed?) with their attacks. I’ve not seen any OSINT analysis of these battle groups, but I strongly suspect that they are units north and south of the former Ukrainian pocket. One being units operating out of Izyum and the other out of the Popasna or Donetsk region to the south. This may signal the resurgence of the large envelopment maneuver initially attempted in April. Russian has been expending a lot of artillery rounds in both regions and with artillery assets being freed up following the Luhansk Oblast we could see more.

However, such a maneuver, once again, has the potential of Russian forces out running their supply train. Being more widely separated, supporting fires will become more difficult to effect. And the BIG question is just how combat capable are the Russian and Separatist units? It was suggested that the only reason Russia captured the small portion of Luhansk Oblast was the withering artillery support they dished out (10:1 advantage).

The increased ability of Ukrainian forces to target critical Russian military facilities with Western-provided weapon systems, plus relaying of key target locations by partisans is beginning to create new headaches for the Russian supply chain. Russia keeps showing up with tons of artillery. Will these hits make any dent? This is where I see the unspoken partisan efforts providing time critical targeting data to Ukrainan artillery / missile units. You can’t hop ammo dumps around like you can a tactical unit on a moments notice.
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Belarus -

The Belarusian Ministry of Transport Minsk has announced that it has asked Lithuania’s state-owned railway company LTG to relaunch passenger train services between Minsk and Vilnius.
Lithuania has declared that it is out of the question.
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Europe / NATO General -
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All thirty NATO members signed the accession documents to expand the alliance, providing the new members access to intelligence and diplomatic resources. Finland and Sweden’s foreign ministers signed their portion, leaving each current and new member’s country to ratify the documents in their legislatures and implement NATO’s common defense provision. Turkey’s foreign minister said the U.S. will supply 40 modernized F-16s in exchange for their cooperation.

Turkey halted a Russian-flagged cargo ship off its Black Sea coast and was investigating a Ukrainian claim that it was carrying stolen grain.

Bulgaria expelled Russian “diplomats” on espionage charges. This is half the Russian diplomatic presence in Bulgaria.
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Israel -

The IAF begins a drill over Romania, dubbed “Blue Sky,” aimed at training the C-130 and C-130J transport aircraft for flights in unfamiliar territory at low altitudes, the military says

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Syria -

There was an explosion near a US military base in the Al-Omar oil field, east of Deir ez-Zor. Few details, though no US personnel were reported to be injured.
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Turkey -

See seizure of Russian cargo ships under Europe/NATO general.

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Misc of Note -

“I’ve been sort of screaming for a month about how bad the diagnostic situation is for monkeypox. And that really was a clear error, preventable, and it’s very clear that this administration has not learned lessons from early COVID,” said James Krellenstein, co-founder of the HIV treatment advocacy group Prep4All.

OBSERVATION - The pox remains confined to the Gay community and efforts are under way to spread fear to the normal community.
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