******* CRITICAL MASS *******
Things are getting bad fast as the Ukraine situation melts down. US naval elements have departed bases for the open ocean in mass on both coasts. Significant change in readiness posture. Watching for snap deployments of Strategic and tactical air assets as well as US Army out of the US.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
A group of more than 100 billionaires and millionaires has issued a plea to political and business leaders convening virtually for the World Economic Forum: make us pay more tax.
The group calling itself the “Patriotic Millionaires” said that the ultra-wealthy were not currently being forced to pay their share of the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
“As millionaires, we know that the current tax system is not fair. Most of us can say that, while the world has gone through an immense amount of suffering in the last two years, we have actually seen our wealth rise during the pandemic – yet few if any of us can honestly say that we pay our fair share in taxes,” the signatories said in an open letter, published on the occasion of the World Economic Forum’s “virtual Davos”, which began on January 17.
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Wuhan virus -
Israeli study shows that a second booster (4th shot) does very little to stop Omicron.
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Economy -
Oil prices are now at a 7 year high.
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Biden watch -
biden to hold first news conference in 80 days today.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Pellosi/Schumer are stlll trying to ram HR1 (federalization of voting) and BBB through. It is expected that Schumer is going to force a vote on the fillibuster some time this evening.
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Domestic Terror -
The FBI and Homeland Security are warning that faith-based communities likely will remain targets of violence. In a letter obtained by CNN, FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate and John Cohen, the top intelligence official at DHS, urged state and local officials to review their security protocols for mass gatherings and houses of worship.
“Faith-based communities have been, and will likely continue to be, targets of violence by both domestic violent extremists and those inspired by foreign terrorists,” the two officials said in the letter.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
******** WARNING - SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS *********
Observers are noting significant numbers of Naval warships departing both Pearl Harbor, San Diego and Norfork bases JAN 17 & 18.
OSINT sources include web cameras and individuals
Observed departing Pearl Harbor -
- USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) Arleigh Burke-class Flight IIA guided missile destroyer
Observed departing from San Diego -
- USS Tripoli (LHA 7)
- USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG 54) Arleigh Burke-class Flight I guided missile destroyer
- USS Shoup (DDG 86) Arleigh Burke-class Flight IIA guided missile destroyer
- USS Anchorage (LPD 23) San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock
- USS Annapolis (SSN 760) nuclear attack submarine
Observed departing Norfolk -
- USNS Medgar Evers (T-AKE-13) Lewis and Clark-class dry cargo ship
- USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) Wasp-class amphibious assault ship
- USS Bataan (LHD 5) Wasp-class amphibious assault ship
- USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44) Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship
- USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) dock landing ship
- USS Forrest Sherman (DDG 98) Arleigh Burke-class Flight IIA guided missile destroyer
- USS Mitscher (DDG 57) Arleigh Burke-class Flight I guided missile destroyer
- USS Gonzalez (DDG 66) Arleigh Burke-class Flight I guided missile destroyer
- USNS Arctic (T-AOE-8) Supply-class fast combat support ship
- USNS Joshua Humphreys (T-AO-188) Henry J. Kaiser-class replenishment oiler
Don’t forget I reported that on Jan 14th the USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) Wasp-class amphibious assault ship and USS Arlington (LPD 24) San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock were observed leaving Norfolk, Virginia.
As noted in an earlier report, Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) departed San Diego, Calif., on Jan. 10 for deployment in the Western Pacific.
Currently, the Navy is reporting the Lincoln and the Carl Vinson CSGs along with the Essex ARG and America ESG the far Western Pacific between Japan and Philippines.
The Reagan is in reports to be in port at Yokosuka, Japan for maintenance.
OBSERVATION - Seeking confirmation from naval sources, I checked the USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker: Jan. 18, 2022. Not a single naval group stationed in the US is listed on the map - no status for these groups/ships. USNI has gone silent.
The Ohio-class guided-missile submarine USS Georgia (SSGN 729), operating in the U.S. Sixth Fleet area of operations, conducted a brief stop for personnel near Limassol, Cyprus, on Jan. 15, 2022.
OBSERVATION - Again, announcing locations of boomers is unusual, especially during conditions of potential war.
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Russia -
INCREASED WARNING ONGOING - OSINT and other analysts are noting the continued build up of military assets that go far beyond those necessary for a military ‘exercise’. Putin has seriously deployed for combat and can execute several options at any moment. Current indicators are that Russia is more inclined to launch a full scale attack against the Ukraine with the purpose of overthrowing the government.
Russian deployments indicate the capability to launch an offensive against Ukraine along 7 fronts: from the Union State of Russia and Belarus, from the Russian Federation, from Russian-occupied Donbas, from the Sea of Azov, from Russian-occupied Crimea, from the Black Sea, from Russian-occupied Moldova.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told reporters on Wednesday that Russia and NATO failed to find common ground. He summed up Wednesday’s meeting: “By NATO’s decision, all practical cooperation between Russia and the alliance in areas of common interest have been suspended. Today we do not have any unifying positive agenda, none at all.” He said that the West has presented Russia with an “unacceptable threat” that Russia will have to counter.
Russia has continued to deploy aircraft closer to the Ukraine border. It has sent 24-36 Su-34 jets to join helicopters that have been positioned near the border.
“As of mid-January, there are 36 Iskander launchers near Ukraine, according to the assessment. Iskander missiles are capable of striking targets 500-700 km (approximately 310-430 miles) away and could now target areas including the capital, Kyiv. Each Iskander-M brigade typically has 12 9P78-1 launchers which means 36 launchers=3 brigades. I think they likely have 4(+) brigade’s worth including launchers at Kapustin Yar and and from the 41st CAA. We’ve also seen more Iskander-M on the move. Every launcher can carry 2 ballistic missiles so that’s at least 72 ballistic missiles in range of Ukraine, likely with more missile reloads.
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Ukraine -
British C17 aircraft have been forced to fly around German airspace after their refusal to allow arms and munitions bound for Ukraine over country. U.K. Foreign Office officials have been told to be ready to move into “crisis mode” on short notice.
OBSERVATION - Lack of US leadership on this issue is worsening cracks in NATO alliance.
U.S. officials tell CNN that evidence shows Russia is planning to try and take Ukraine’s capital and overthrow the Ukrainian government.
ten Intelligence collecting aircraft from multiple NATO members flew over the Baltics and Ukraine in the past day.
USN P-8A (PK18x)
US Army RC-12Xs (YANK01 & YANK03)
USAF RC-135W (JAKE11)
USAF E-8C (REDEYE6)
RAF P-8A (GURNY01)
RAF RC-135W (RRR7205)
Swedish S100D (SVF604)
Swedish S102B (SVF623)
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Belarus -
More Russian military movements arrive for an “exercise” with Belarus forces in February.
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Europe General -
Swedish Armed Forces says all 6 Russian landing craft have left the Baltic Sea.
OBSERVATION - There is some RUMINT that these ships are headed for Venezuela or Cuba.
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Iran -
Iran and the United States are displaying little flexibility on core issues in indirect nuclear talks, raising questions about whether a compromise can be found soon to renew the 2015 deal, diplomats say.
After eight rounds of talks, the thorniest points remain the speed and scope of lifting sanctions on Tehran — including Iran’s demand for a US guarantee of no further punitive steps — and how and when to restore curbs on Iran’s atomic work.
OBSERVATION - I don’t expect much movement. Iran is getting what it wants - defacto elimination of sanctions because of no agreement.
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****** WARNING ******
USN deployments still unexplained. biden essentially gave Russia he green light in his press conference to attack.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The direct imposition of permanent annual taxes on the earnings of the world’s richest individuals could redistribute wealth and lift millions out of poverty, a report presented to the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Wednesday outlined.
Under the globalist proposal, supranational taxation would start at a rate of two percent on wealth over $5 million and progress to five percent on wealth over $1 billion, generating $2.52 trillion. This would be in addition to – and on top of – whatever taxes are imposed at source by individual national authorities.
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Wuhan virus -
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced an end to COVID restrictions in England, including face masks in public places and vaccine passports. Johnson said on Wednesday that the government would end its advisory telling people to work from home.
According to the BBC:
* Mandatory Covid passports for entering nightclubs and large events would end, though organisations could choose to use the NHS Covid pass if they wished
* People would no longer be advised to work from home and should discuss their return to offices with employers
* Face masks will no longer be mandated, though people are still advised to wear coverings in enclosed or crowded spaces and when meeting strangers
* From Thursday, secondary school pupils will no longer have to wear face masks in classrooms and government guidance on their use in communal areas would be removed “shortly.”
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Economy -
Futures in New York rose as much as 1.9% to climb above $87 a barrel. The global oil market has tightened in recent weeks due to outages in OPEC+ producers including Libya, with buyers in Asia paying sharply higher premiums for spot cargoes.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is boosting its forecasts for global benchmark Brent, predicting $100 oil in the third quarter
IN RELATED - A spike in gas prices will likely begin in March, according to Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum at GasBuddy. De Haan says all Americans may soon be facing California-esque gas prices.
Biden’s rising inflation could push gas prices for regular unleaded fuel to above $4 a gallon. “We’ll start to see gasoline demand surge, along with refiners doing maintenance ahead of the summer driving season, creating a squeeze” De Haan told Fox Business.
Earlier this month, GasBuddy projected the national average price for a gallon of gasoline could climb to a high of $4.13 in June. California cities could have average costs of over $5. Currently the nationwide average is $3.314 per gallon according to the American Automobile Association.
OBSERVATION - Fuel prices increases will quickly spread to other sectors of the economy as those costs for increased shipping get passed on to consumers.
Canadian trucking vaccine mandates have hit and canadian grocery stores are reporting increased shortages. Jan 22 the US will impost similar, totally screwing up cross border trade as only about 80% of canadian truckers are vaccinated and a much lower percentage of US are.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to the highest level since mid-October as an unprecedented surge in COVID-19 cases driven by the highly contagious omicron variant threatened to undermine the economy’s recovery. Figures released Thursday by the Labor Department show that applications for the week that ended on Jan. 15 jumped to 286,000 from a revised 231,000 a week earlier, sharply missing the 220,000 forecast by Refinitiv analysts.
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Biden watch -
Biden on Wednesday predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine, citing existential concerns by the country’s president, Vladimir Putin, even as he warned of significant economic consequences should such an incursion occur.
But he suggested a “minor incursion” would elicit a lesser response than a full-scale invasion of the country. “I’m not so sure he is certain what he is going to do. My guess is he will move in. He has to do something,” Biden said CNN’s Matthew Chance (who’s in Kyiv) just reported that Ukrainian officials “watched those remarks with horror”
biden’s remarks required Psaki to issue a clarification statement - “If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion”
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POLITICAL FRONT -
The senate defeated the attempt at changing the filibuster rule 52-48
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
******** WARNING - SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS *********
Still no statement regarding the deployment of naval vessels from the US. USNI News still shows nothing in US. Only units depicted are those in the vicinity of the Japan Sea.
See link below to USNI map as of Jan 18, 2022
https://news.usni.org/2022/01/18/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-jan-18-2022#jp-carousel-91311
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China -
China is issuing a warning to athletes who will be competing in the games: Keep your mouth shut or else.
“Any expression that is in line with the Olympic spirit, I’m sure will be protected. Any behavior or speeches that are against the Olympic spirit, and especially against Chinese laws and regulations are also subjected to certain punishment,” Yang Shu, the deputy director general of the international relations department of the Beijing organizing committee, said on Wednesday.
“There’s really not much protection that we believe is going to be afforded to athletes,” Rob Koehler, the director general of the Global Athlete group, said during the seminar, according to Reuters. “So we’re advising athletes not to speak up. We want them to compete and use their voice when they get home.”
China lowered mortgage lending benchmark rates on Thursday as monetary authorities step up efforts to prop up the slowing economy, after data earlier in the week pointed to a darkening outlook for the country’s troubled property sector.
OBSERVATION - The Everclear meltdown combined with economic losses due to China’s Covid Zero policy locking down towns, factories and shipping ports have damaged China’s GDP growth projections. They are having to loosen the purse strings contrary to what the rest of the world which is tightening finances.
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North Korea -
North Korea hinted on Thursday that it could resume nuclear and long-range weapons tests. North Korea said that it would bolster its defenses against the United States and consider restarting “all temporally [sic] suspended activities,” state media KCNA’s English language portal reported on Thursday.
Kim Jong Un convened a meeting of the politburo of the ruling Workers’ Party on Wednesday, KCNA said.
The meeting was convened to discuss policy issues including countermeasures over “hostile” US policy.
Besides discussing the restarting “temporally suspended activities,” the politburo also called for “immediately bolstering more powerful physical means.”
“We should make more thorough preparation for a long-term confrontation with the U.S. imperialists,” the politburo said.
“The hostile policy and military threat by the US have reached a danger line that cannot be overlooked anymore.”
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Russia -
INCREASED WARNING ONGOING - OSINT and other analysts are noting the continued build up of military assets that go far beyond those necessary for a military ‘exercise’. Putin has seriously deployed for combat and can execute several options at any moment. Current indicators are that Russia is more inclined to launch a full scale attack against the Ukraine with the purpose of overthrowing the government.
Russian deployments indicate the capability to launch an offensive against Ukraine along 7 fronts: from the Union State of Russia and Belarus, from the Russian Federation, from Russian-occupied Donbas, from the Sea of Azov, from Russian-occupied Crimea, from the Black Sea, from Russian-occupied Moldova.
Six Russian naval landing ships that created a security stir in Sweden have sailed south past Britain from the Baltic Sea. According to Russian Defense Ministry, the forces of the Russian Pacific, Northern and Baltic fleets will conduct exercises in the Mediterranean Sea. The six large landing ships of the Russian Navy is heading to the Mediterranean Sea for exercises, - the Russian Defense Ministry.
The Russian Defense Ministry also said the Russian Navy will conduct drills of all fleets in January-February. 140 vessels, 60 aircraft, 10000 servicemen including maneuvers in the White Sea and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans
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Ukraine -
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken summed up Russia’s negotiating position as, “hand over Ukraine to our sphere of influence, or we will end Ukraine as it is. Those are the stakes.”
WEATHER UPDATE - Forecasts suggest sub-zero temperatures across the entirety of Belarus spreading southward into Ukraine through the 28th of the month, with a particularly cold shot of air near the 23rd.
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Belarus -
Russian troops have officially arrived in the Belarusian town of Yelsk, 18km from Ukraine according to a local news report.
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