Welcome to Threat Matrix 2022
For historical reference TM2021 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3920606/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 21st year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few year.
Conditions in our world have dramatically changed over those 21 years, an even more so in the past three. I tend increasingly to refer to 2019 as the ‘before years’ as 2020 to date has resulted in essentially a TEOTWAWKI situation – minus the earth shaking boom. Today globalist forces have taken advantage of the wuhan virus to create global panic and start forcing its plans for a global ‘reset’.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regards to how it will affect the US. Every Friday I attempt to assess a heat “code” to the area that captures the trends that get buried in daily reports.
Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
What are my expectations for 2022? Quite simply, this year will make 2021 look tame just like 2021 made 2020 look meek. Below are key topics and my specific outlooks.
Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward
No longer conspiracy theory/tinfoil hat, Globalism has come out of the shadows with the face of WEF being Klaus Schwab. The WEF openly calls for a 4th industrial revolution where -
- There is a society that owns nothing.
- You will no longer have a job in the sense that it has traditionally been understood. Instead, you will work various and sundry “gigs,” all of which place you in a precarious position at any given time. You will receive a fee for services performed, with no benefits, paid time off, healthcare, or anything else that the middle class in the West has become accustomed to.
- Rural populations will be moved into urban areas since dispersed populations have too high a “carbon footprint.”
- Global Warming/Green solutions take priority over all else.
At its core, the Great Reset is an attempt to enforce socialism through private companies rather than only through the government. Globalist forces work behind the scenes, with friendly national governments doing the dirty word. They use vague euphemisms like the main slogan for the Great Reset, “build back better.” Hence readers will need to realize that a post under another topic also doubles with that of the Great Reset. Things are tightly intertwined and getting worse.
For 2022 I expect globalist efforts to utilize multiple forces to control people thru wuhan related mandates, global warming mandates, economic and social mandates. _____________________________
Wuhan virus - YELLOW
Globalists will continue to push every means to use this virus to condition and control the population. Omicron is the latest example.
However, Omicron has caused serious doubts to be casts by the sheeple and the narrative is starting to slip. Evidence will continue to push through the censors of media that the mRNA vaccines are ineffective and in fact are creating deadly conditions on their own both directly and long term (damage to natural immunological systems). CDC et al will continue to move goalposts to keep the public confused and uninformed to the real science.
In compliant blue states, oppressive mandates will be kept up for as long as possible. The purpose is to condition the people to be compliant to government demands – unquestioningly.
2022 Forcast – narrative erosion will continue, but govt will push forward with falsely based mandates to maintain power. I fully expect to see -
- Universal ‘passport’ requirements and restrictions
- The unvaxxed in the US will be barred from more and more essential services, travel (mandated fully vax passports for airtravel, etc) and eventually medical care.
- Loss of medial care will start with government based systems (ease of “executive order” enforcement), such as VA (veterans), Medicare, etc. Expect to see private policies adding surcharges and even dropped coverage. - Forced ‘quarantine” of the unvaxxed – already practiced in Australia and initially proposed for NY State.
It has ceased to be about the disease, but is about control
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Economy - ORANGE
A key component of the Great Reset that will progressively make our lives miserable. The biden administration is not seemingly incompetent, but deliberate in their destructive actions.
2022 forecast – The fed will totally “loose” control of inflation and potentially create even worse inflation/hyperinflation.
Cryptocurrency will continue to be targeted by banks and governments – globalist cannot have transactions occurring without their oversight and blessing. This will be part of a push to a digital currency under full government control that will eventually be tied to a “social credit” score to roll in components of social justice and green agenda.
Efforts to increase federal spending and national debt, setting stage for global takeover.
Parallel issues of global shortages, with biggest being food and fuel shortages – both to drive inflation.
2022 forecast – Increasing possibility of an economic collapse and global recession.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE
Illegals are creating chaos in society with increased crime and stresses to social systems. Purpose to keep citizenry fearful and looking for a ‘solution’
2022 forecast – things will only get worse. ______________________________
Biden watch - ORANGE
The fact that biden has remained in office so far is that the democrats have realized that harris is an abyssal replacement. His ‘decisions’ have caused his support to collapse, leading to a train wreck at the midterms. His mental facilities continue to fall apart on a world stage.
2022 forcast - His handlers will continue to use him to move the globalist agenda and prep the country for a reset.
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW
The US is increasingly pulling apart, with both left and right increasingly talking about a ‘divorce’ either peacefully or violently. Red states are increasingly challenging not only federal ‘legislative’ power but even military authority. The country is armed to the teeth and there are elements on both sides ready to pull the trigger.
The foot soldiers for the left – BLM/Antifa are operating at a low key, needing only a unifying incident or cause to trigger more violence. One major trigger is the 2022 midterms where if polling is correct, the left faces a bloodbath at the polls.
2022 forecast – Absent rioting, fully expect more looting sprees in upscale neighborhood store and residences to maintain social unbalance. Pressure gauge is in the red zone and many actions could push the button to kinetic actions.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW
Politics will be at the forefront this year. Democrats are facing loss of both houses and will likely do a full court press to get their voting reforms and ‘build back better’ plans passed while they have votes. It will get ugly and we will see an attempt to revoke the filibuster to get measures passed. Leftists will also trigger BLM/Antifa elements to create chaos and cover.
2022 forecast – This will get very ugly and conflicts here will ripple into other categories.
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Domestic Terror – BLUE
Open southern border and weak international policies will embolden enemy terrorist govts to strike a weakened US
2022 forecast – Expect ‘lone wolf’ attacks as well as increasing narco-terrorism from an uncontrolled border.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - BLUE
Our military is deliberately being demoralized and disassembled. Afghanistan fiasco is an example. We will be caught up in one or more major conflicts, perhaps beginning as early as this winter.
2022 forecast - Personnel losses due to wuhan mandates (zero religious exemptions have been given; Continued purging of ‘extremists’ under standards that are deliberately vague. Continued indoctrination in woke subjects (CRT, LGBTeieio, Other social justice issues)
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Cyber Warfare – YELLOW
2022 forecast – More of what we’ve seen and in the event of a conflict with Russia, China or Iran expect substantial cyber attacks that could cripple our economy on many fronts.
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China -
Increasing threat. China is watching biden/US for weakness and opportunity to move against Taiwan. However, China has never executed an amphibious operation the size and scope of one needed against Taiwan and in doing so will not only have to face the US but Australia, Japan and European forces.
China is also facing critical economic issues and food supply weaknesses. Wuhan has damaged its production and shipping. It maintains control over foreign businesses by brute force / control of factories and resources.
2022 forecast – Moderate potential for a move against Taiwan. Actual action will depend on the condition of the US to respond.
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North Korea – BLUE
2022 forecast – Recent party congress address by Kim lacked blusterous attacks on the US and calling for more nuclear and conventional weapons development. Kim’s address was focused on economic development and feeding its citizens. He is facing severe internal chaos and it looks like he is trying to bolster his support there to cut off a potential replacement effort.
2022 forecast – I expect a relatively tranquil NK to continue.
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Russia - ORANGE and increasing
Putin has designs on a restored Soviet Union and is looking to exploit the current lack of leadership from the US to accomplish that.
2022 forecast – Putin will order a military operation into Ukraine, scale depending upon perceived NATO weakness and response. Options I see are ;
- Limited operation to secure the Dombass region from Ukraine control. Least probability of NATO involvement.
- Limited operation to secure lands east of the Depner River,
- Unlimited operation to conquer the entire nation – most dangerous action in that it will likely involve NATO forces and draw in the US.
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Poland - YELLOW trending
2022 forecast – Poland may be the first NATO country to engage Russia depending on the size of their attack. May also face Belarus forces.
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Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
2022 forecast – continued strikes against Hezbollah in Syria and Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon. Moderate probability of striking Iranian nuclear faculties. Low probability of Israeli use of nuclear weapons.
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Iran - ORANGE
2022 forecast – Coffers filled by dropped/bypassed sanctions, Iran will increasingly prepare for an Israeli attack. I think they will wait for Israel to strike first for PR purposes. Hezbollah will launch its attack as Iran’s proxy. Any war will cause closure of the Straits of Hormutz , and oil wars/shortages.
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Misc of Note and Black Swans
I’ve skipped over some topics/regions in this forecast and there are unforeseen events and natural disasters that can make life incredibly miserable.
Rising higher on my radar is severe weather. Not based on ‘global warming’ but on other processes. I’ve struggled with this to filter out data bias – the idea that what appears to be out of normal conditions is actually due to more reporting of previously unreported events. The last two years have seen massive crop losses due to flooding, locusts and droughts. Other mega events could tip many other areas given the weakened nature of our world.
I’m back again. Recovery is going very well, just trying to rebuild stamina and re-establish the old wake/sleep pattern. You sleep a lot from something like this. So starting this week, I’m putting more effort to return to consistent commentary. Thanks for your kind words and patience.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Fingers of the G/GR are visible in dark blue states. One aspect consists of proposals by NY state last month (withdrawn after exposure ) and Washington state this week show movement towards forcible isolation of unvaxxed into ‘camps’. This follows a similar pattern Australia and other counties are developing to coerce the unjabbed into compliance.
Rhetoric from national leaders around the world has become increasingly nasty towards the anti-vaxxed. France Macron stirred nation wide protests after he called the unvaxxed “non citizens”. Canada’s Trudeau said recently ““They don’t believe in science/progress and are very often misogynistic and racist. It’s a very small group of people, but that doesn’t shy away from the fact that they take up some space.”
“This leads us, as a leader and as a country, to make a choice: Do we tolerate these people? Over 80% of the population of Quebec have done their duty by getting the shot. They are obviously not the issue in this situation”
Vaccine skeptics and others angered by COVID curbs have protested in Brussels, Prague and other European cities over the weekend.
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Wuhan virus -
Goalposts moving again. Fauci/CDC is in the process of redefining “fully vaccinated” to include the booster shot.
Some officials are reporting that Omicron has peaked many states. Similar reports from other nations around the world. However, Omicron has underperformed in creating more hospitalizations as well as only a minuscule numbers of deaths.
News hitting the wires include that many ‘cover’ hospitalizations are not due to the wuhan virus, but actually other causes, with a later detection of wuhan.
The impending passing of the Omicron peak hasn’t stopped some branch covidians from demanding more harsh measures against the unjabbed. As I’ve noted, this includes draconian increases in health insurance costs, But a lot of these bleats are based on the now falsified claims of the pandemic of the unvaccinated.
It is increasingly evident that the vaccines do not prevent infections and that current infection rates include significant numbers of ‘fully vaccinated’ individuals. Most recent examples are Whoopie and AOC.
New statistics from New York show that more than 40 percent of the state’s hospitalized coronavirus-infected patients were admitted for “non-COVID reasons” — with the ratio in New York City “about 50-50,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said Friday.
As 2022 progresses, the trend showing that the jab is creating more problems/deaths than it is preventing sill continue to comer out. One of the biggest reports I’ve seen on this is a 99-page study titled “Worldwide Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis of Vaccine Administration on Deaths and Cases Associated with COVID-19: A BigData Analysis of 145 Countries” found that in the US specifically, the jab has caused a whopping 38% more Covid cases per million – and an even more astonishing 31% increase in deaths per million.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356248984_Worldwide_Bayesian_Causal_Impact_Analysis_of_Vaccine_Administration_on_Deaths_and_Cases_Associated_with_COVID-19_A_BigData_Analysis_of_145_Countries
Negative effects have been hard to ignore in the world of sports with fully vaxxed athletes collapsing on the playing fields with heart problems. Continued deadly effects will continue to increase and media will scramble to keep this under wraps.
Guidance issued by the Biden administration states certain individuals may be considered “high risk” and more quickly qualify for monoclonal antibodies and oral antivirals used to treat COVID-19 based on their “race or ethnicity.”
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shortened the recommended interval between the initial inoculation and boosting from six to five months. The CDC updated its recommended waiting period for those who completed their primary vaccination series with Pfizer’s shots while leaving the booster interval recommendation for people who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine (two months) or the Moderna vaccine (six months) unchanged on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - These changes reflect not only the ineffectiveness of the ‘vaccines’ but a desperation to try to control a miminal virus with over vaccination that is increasingly being demonstrated as not working.
Biden’s wuhan mandates didn’t get a very favorable hearing at the USSC with many seeing that they will be struck down.
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Economy -
Last week, jobs data reflected the economy still in deep doo-doo, being lass than half of what was expected. Biden has essentially defaulted to the Fed to control inflation.
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Invasion of Illegals -
SMH - the flood of illegals continues. Detention rates for illegal immigrants have dropped by almost 10% from the previous month despite the historic surge across the border. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) Alternative to Detention program has reported limited effectiveness with remote tracking technologies, such as ankle monitoring, with over 150,000 people in the program.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
An Antifa member, Garrett James Smith, 22, was arrested and found carrying an active pipe bomb, Antifa propaganda and a written document on what to bring for his direct action. The arrest occurred near a right-wing rally outside the Pinellas County Courthouse in Florida on Jan. 6. He had recently returned from Portland, Ore.
Other BLM/Antifa activity continues at low levels.
Commentators are noting increasing talk by influencers on the left advocating a civil war to subjugate their opponents and protect “democracy”.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi decries corporate greed, but that hasn’t stopped her from raking in as much as $30 million personally from insider stock trades on the very Big Tech companies she oversees in Congress.
No surprise then that she is also blocking bipartisan efforts to prevent members of Congress from engaging in individual stock picks.
OBSERVATION - This is insider trading at its worst. Her public arrogance will not carry well with rank and file americans on both sides of the divide.
The whole Jan 6 anniversary has gained little to no traction judging from MSM response. This in spite of the PR efforts of the MSM but were burnt by the hyperbolic claims of equivalence to Pearl Harbor and 9/11.
Desperation at having HR1 and BBB stuck in the senate due to filibuster rules, Schumer is scheming to overturn it. Biden administration is focusing its domestic efforts on voting rights legislation. The stalled Senate voting rights bill is unable to pass without changing the filibuster rules. The unofficial deadline to pass voting reform is Martin Luther King Jr. Day as advocates claim inaction would make “a mockery of the holiday.” Sens. Manchin (D-WV) and Sinema (D-AZ) remain the Democratic holdouts, but Majority Leader Schumer indicated his willingness to use procedural rule changes and legislative negotiations to overcome their resistance.
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Domestic Terror -
Iran continues to threaten terrorist attacks against the US on US territory. Given the porous border, Iranian terror teams are likely in country and could execute attacks.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the strike group to remain in the Mediterranean Sea, rather travel to U.S. Central Command.
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China -
Evergrande has proceeded to destroy 39 buildings in response to its meltdown. On December 16, 2021 it was reported that Evergrande was now considered ‘SD’ (Selective Default) by Standand and Poor’ and normally would be liquidating its holdings. Some observers are convinced the company is following a ‘scorched earth’ policy by essentially saying ‘We are going to put it in your face that we are not going to pay you and you will watch the assets that we could use to pay you vaporize in a controlled demolition’.
Hitting headlines last week was China’s ‘hoarding’ of about 50% of the global grain supplies. I noted last summer that China was trying to buy as much grain as it could lay its hands on due in part to two disastrous harvest seasons. I noted that this has caused a global increase in food prices.
China has also been facilitating Iran’s breaking of sanctions by buying considerable amounts of oil.
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India/China -
China reportedly expanding facilities within the disputed zone with India.
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North Korea -
Last week NK launched a ballistic missile into the sea of Japan. NK reportedly said it was a test of a hypersonic glide warhead. Other observers say it was a conventional warhead.
OBSERVATION - Even with this launch, aggressive posturing by NK has been very minimal. Could be associated with the apparent health change/extreme weight loss by Kim. Only recent belligerence is the NK claim that they created the burrito. . . . .
Word is coming out that dissension within the ranks of the NK military are increasing with desertions , insubordination and even threats against officers. Sources blamed the apparent rise in examples of insubordination — as well as a corresponding increase in incidents of superior officers brutally hazing enlisted personnel — on the stresses presented by a worsening North Korean economy due in part to COVID restrictions that have largely shut off trade with China.
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Russia -
INCREASED WARNING ONGOING - OSINT and other analysts are noting the continued build up of military assets that go far beyond those necessary for a military ‘exercise’. Putin has seriously deployed for combat and can execute several options at any moment.
RUSSIA in the process of a major deployment to Kazakhstan, an allied nation like Belarus. Some reports of as much as a CAA enroute. Known deployed units include Russia’s 98th Guards Airborne Division and the 31st Separate Guards Airborne Assault Brigade are actively securing government and strategic facilities. As many as 70 military cargo aircraft have reportedly been dedicated to moving troops and equipment into the region. Kazakhstan contains the Russian space complex, the vast majority of natural gas/oil deposits and a lot of other key infrastructure for Russia.
Riots there started initially over the doubling of gas prices and expanded to overall anti government protests. A week after violence erupted, the authorities say the situation has now stabilized, with troops continuing “clean-up” operations and guarding strategic facilities. A state of emergency and a nationwide curfew remain in place. Almost 8,000 people have been detained throughout the country, the Interior Ministry said on Monday.
OBSERVATION - Russia forces are hurrying to secure secure facilities with some airborne forces reinforcing local units. Security forces have been given clearance to “fire without warning”.
FURTHER - The diversion of military resources may have disrupted any potential invasion timelines for Ukraine.
Russia is also being accused of fomenting potential ivil war in the former Yugoslavia by their support of ethnic Serbs in the multiple breakaway countries. More specially in Bosnia, where in 1995 it was divided into two separate territories of the Muslim-Croat Federation (MCF) and the Republika Srpska (RS). Russia has been suppling the RS with a lot of new military equipment.
OBSERVATION - Instability in this region furthers Russia’s goal of a buffer zone by pulling serbs into their sphere of influence even deeper and consternate NATO operations. Russia has always sided with the Serbs and this is just another place where Putin will try to set Russia up to be the sole regional mediator and security guarantor, thus weakening NATO and the West by proving that they are unreliable.
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Ukraine -
Russia rules out any concession with US at talks on Ukraine, security in Europe, adding it is “disappointed” with US signals so far
“We will not agree to any concession. That is completely excluded,” Russia deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov says.
NATO rules out Russian demands that the alliance not admit new members.
The United States is not planning to pull U.S. troops out of Eastern Europe, nor has it ruled out Ukraine’s future membership in NATO, as Russia has demanded, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN’s “State of the Union” with Jake Tapper on Sunday.
Ukraine has continued the call up and training of reserves in preparation for a Russian invasion.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg says it’s “not realistic” to expect Russia-US/NATO talks this week to resolve Ukraine/Europe security crisis. But he hopes there’s the will to “engage in a process” to prevent conflict. Aim is to agree on a “way forward. a series of meetings”
OVERALL OBSERVATION - Putin may be offering some kind of ‘out’ with the continued negotiations with NATO. However, neither side is stepping back. With winter soon to come to an end (and frozen ground assisting movement of armored vehicles) Putin is running out of time and now with Kazakhstan diverting assets and attention on at least the short term, his window is getting smaller.
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Belarus -
Belarus forces reportedly have been deployed to Kazakhstan to support that govt.
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Israel -
Kind of the standard weekly point attack/counter attacks against Hamas.
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Iran -
Officials have increased the rhetoric against the US on the anniversary of the strike that took out IRGC commander Soleimani. Iranian supported militias have launched many attacks against US bases in Syria and Iraq over the past week. Threats include terror attacks in the US as well qs against President Trump.
Iran on Saturday announced the sanctions against 52 Americans for their role in the death of Iranian commander Soleimani
A few days before Soleimani anniversary, the US reportedly has sent a message to Tehran via an Iraqi delegation warning that if attacks on US bases in Iraq & Syria cause damages or harm to troops, “the consequences won’t be confined to Iran-backed groups”
Nuclear control talks are going nowhere in Geneva, as Iran holds to its preconditions and demands.
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Iraq -
Muqtada al-Sadr rebased a statement that the election of Parliament Speaker and deputy speakers is the first signs of a “national majority government.” Govt is forming on a more anti Iranian foundation.
OBSERVATION - Al Sadr , the boil on the butt of US forces has been on the outs with Iran for a considerable time and his backing of the recent elections and results put the Iranian backed militias on notice to get out of Iraqi politics.
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Turkey -
Lyra continues to crash further, throwing the country into economic chaos.
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