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Wuhan virus -

Locally rising cases of the weak new wuhan variant is giving govts thoughts about reinstating mask mandates. As early as Monday, Philadelphia is expected to reimpose an indoor mask mandate because of increasing positive tests and hospitalizations.
Also, two prominent universities — Georgetown and Johns Hopkins — are mandating masking and have instituted testing requirements before students return from spring break.
There are still several states that are maintaining their emergency powers even though most of the rest of the country has ended theirs.

OBSERVATION - Its not about the disease, its all about power.
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Biden / Harris watch -

While introducing newly-confirmed Judge Ketanji Jackson at the White House, biden rambled on saying “I was in the the foothills of the Himalayas with Xi Jinping, traveling with him, that’s when I traveled 17,000 miles when I was Vice President. I don’t know that”
OBSERVATION - Verbal word salad like this is becoming an increasing standard when biden speaks. To swing into a conspiratorial mode, the powers that be may be allowing him to dig his own hole as ammunition for is eventual removal from office.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas delivered a speech to Al Sharpton’s National Action Network conference in New York City on Friday. He told those attending the conference that “the greatest terrorism-related threat that we face in the homeland is the threat of domestic violent extremism.” By this Mayorkas was confirming that to represent White supremacists.

OBSERVATION - This has been a recurring theme since 0bama years. After Jan 6th, this list has expanded to include many ‘white’ ideas and thought such as love of country, God, etc.. Policies like this are setting up potential govt targeting of much of the population if things go sidewise.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Patriot battery going to Slovakia will include US personnel to operate it.
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North/South Korea -

After a conference between US and South Korean officials in Washington on Tuesday (April 5), South Korean lawmaker Park Jin stated that “deploying strategic assets is an important part of strengthening extended deterrence” and that both countries “discussed the issue today in that sense.” Among the US strategic assets South Korea wants to be redeployed to its territory are nuclear-powered submarines, aircraft carriers and long-range bombers.

OBSERVATION - This level of cooperation between the US and SK is going to cause Kim fits. It is a 180 degree reversal of previous SK policy of appeasement.

NK holiday - North Korea will celebrate the birth of the country’s founder, Kim Il Sung, on April 15. Kim is the grandfather of current dictator Kim Jong Un.
OBSERVATION - This is why analysts and observers are looking to this date for a possible nuclear test.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia staged war games in Kaliningrad according to Reuters News “Up to 1,000 military personnel. and more than 60 military equipment units were involved,” - Russian Baltic Fleet Command’s press service.

Russia has forcibly relocated many Ukraines into Russia. There Russia has fast tracked the adoption of Ukraine Orphans. This is just another war crime as identified below.
Article II of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide:
E) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

War could potentially spread outside of Ukraine if Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria serves as an air base for Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine Ukraine has warned that it will shoot down Russian jets that are en route to Tiraspol

A lot of discussion on the assessment of Russian losses and the combat readiness of redeploying units from the north. 29 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups are reportedly combat ineffective after sustaining heavy losses & logistical failures in Ukraine per U.S. officials to CNN. Others assess the loss of BTGs at 20 “destroyed” and about 40 more combat ineffective. This comes out to about a loss of a third of Russia’s pre invasion forces.

Many of the losses were concentrated in some of Russia’s best units - airborne. Naval Infantry. and Guards tank regiments. This does not take into account other BTGs that lost some vehicles/personnel but are still considered “fit”. This analysis is essential to evaluate the combat effectiveness of the Phase 2 Dombas campaign by Russia. In addition to it, unit cohesiveness/coordination and morale are key issues.
A good discussion of the issue if found at the following link.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9

RUMINT -
Top FSB general was ‘moved to high-security Moscow jail’ as Putin steps up purge of spies who ‘told him Ukrainians would welcome invasion’. Sergei Beseda, now former head of the 5th Service of the FSB, was earlier under house arrest. He has now been placed in pre-trial detention in notorious Lefortovo Prison The move will be seen as a warning to other senior aides of Vladimir Putin

Unconfirmed reports that Russia is trying to keep as many as 30 BTGs in a position to threaten Kyiv in an effort to freeze the transfer of forces by Ukraine to the Dombas region.

Logistics -
- Discussion among analysts on how long it will take Russia to refit units pulled out of N Ukraine to make them ready for the impending Dombas campaign. Some are placing this in the range of weeks or even months. There is evidence that Russian forces are in the process of moving to the Eastern Ukraine area - most noteworthy VDV forces, so there appears to be a spectrum of deployment dates.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian troop call ups continue, however, many thing it will take as long as months to have them ready to deploy into the Ukranian fight.

Economic Impacts -

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 19th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

RUMINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a surprise visit to Kyiv. He met with Zelensky and promised more aid including Harpoon anti-ship missiles.

Fighting in the Dombas region is ongoing, but ho significant Russian or Ukrainan gains/losses.

Heavy missile and air strikes in the Dombas region.

Kyiv front -
North of Kyiv, Ukraine continues doing de-mining operations

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Continued clearing of any mines

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Continued clearing of mines

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian military forces destroyed big Russian military column on the way to Izyum.
Other unconfirmed reports that this column was grouped in Kupianki. They were ambushed before the intersection of the road to Izjum and suffered substantial losses. Ukrainian forces have effectively blocked the intersection, at least for the time being.
It is also unknown if this is the same 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk from a video posted by a Russian(?) source.

Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances .

Numerous airstrikes and missile attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk region including at least 7 striking Dnipro itself

OOOPS After hitting the industrial facility with artillery, Aerosols from the explosion of a cylinder with 4 tons of nitric acid spread towards the positions of the Russian military near Kudryashivka and Varvarivka.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders. Russian forces have reportedly made it to the southern part of the port area. Other reports of Russian forces said to be just blocks away from Mariupol station. Getting a clear picture of the fighting and force distribution is difficult as much of the fight is now on a house to house basis.

Crimea Front -
Ukraine forces continue to pressure Kherson from both the southwest and north.
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near or long term.

Western Ukraine -
No significant activity noted.

OUTLOOK -
Continued force build up in Eastern Ukraine along with Russian probing attacks to pin and identigy weaknesses in Ukrainan forces for later exploitation. Continued heavy bombing and missile attacks deeper in the Dombas region. I don’t think Russia has enough forces yet to launch a major attack and doesn’t want to peace-meal units into the attack as they arrive.

Continued slug fest in Maripol with Ukraine defenders holding on by their fingernails. It appears that Russia wants to end this as soon as possible in order to redirect forces into the Dombas campaign.
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Europe / NATO General -

‘If President Putin wants less NATO on his borders, he will get more NATO at his borders’ An interview with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

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Pakistan -

Pakistan’s lawmakers have voted to remove Prime Minister Imran Khan from office in a vote of no confidence. The nuclear-armed Islamic nation has been in political turmoil for weeks. But he was accused by his detractors of economic mismanagement and foreign-policy mistakes.

Skyrocketing inflation, rising unemployment, a weak currency and a heavy debt burden also hurt his popularity.
While Khan’s supporters viewed him as the last hope for Pakistani politics, opponents chastised him for his willingness to accommodate Islamists and antagonize the West.

Shehbaz Sharif is likely to become the next Prime Minister of Pakistan. He is known for his “can-do” administrative styles & wants to have better relations with the United States.

High alert was ordered at all Pakistani airports, no senior state member or government official is allowed to leave the country without an NOC. Hospitals in Islamabad placed on high alert also, says police commandos, paramilitary, and snipers are deployed in Islamabad, reports Pakistani Army vehicles roam the streets.

Protests are erupting in the streets of Pakistan over Parliament’s removal of PM Imran Kahn from office. The Pakistan military has banned any government officials from leaving the country.

India’s military is on increased alert status due to this political turmoil.

OBSERVATION - This is a nuclear armed country that needs stable leadership to prevent a nuclear war with India. It has had a lot to turmoil over recent history. Right now it appears the military is supporting the idea of a new govt, ensuring as relatively smooth power transition.

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Israel -

The IDF says 20 Palestinians suspected of terror activity were arrested in overnight raids across the West Bank. 11 Palestinians were injured in clashes with Israeli forces in the areas of Jenin and Tulkarm.

Unusually fierce bombardment by Israeli yesterday. At least 5 aistrikes hit 3 different places in area of Masyaf Syria. One, a weapons laboratory near Zawi, known to have produced barrel bombs & currently used by Iran/Hezbollah was among the targets. This facility has been hit in the past.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

UN Claim: “Humans have less than three years to halt the rise of planet-warming carbon emissions and less than a decade to slash them by nearly half, UN climate experts said. … It’s a last-gasp race to ensure the world has a “liveable future”.
OBSERVATION - Expect wuhan like emergency declarations soon. This is next on the GGR hit parade.
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Economy -

The average American household will have to spend an additional $5,200 this year ($433 per month) to live the exact same life as a result of record inflation, according to a study from Bloomberg.

Commodities prices could rise by 40 percent and will likely continue to go higher, according to a note from JPMorgan Chase from April 7, as raw materials hit a record high last month following Western sanctions on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.
The commodities affected include oil, which is already up 33 percent from the same month the previous year, while natural gas has gone up by 65 percent since the invasion roiled the markets.
Metals excluding gold, such as copper, are up by 7 percent from 2021, while wheat has surged upward by 33 percent.

OBSERVATIONS - Look at your budget and needs 6 months out NOW and try to purchase those essentials now. Fun money is going to be scarce very soon, so readjust your budget.
PERSONAL - I’ve been following my own advice here in the Redoubt. Months ago when I posted on impending baby formula shortages, I stocked upon with about 9 months worth to make sure my soon to arrive next grandbaby is covered. Now I’m getting 2+ cords of wood to beat prices and availability (fire season may shut down wood cutters).
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Invasion of Illegals -

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) says President Joe Biden could potentially entice 20,000 to 30,000 border crossers and illegal aliens to the United States-Mexico border every day if he follows through on plans to end the Title 42 public health authority.
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Biden / Harris watch -

The Hunter scandal continues to gain traction in the MSM! suggesting that things may be hot for brandon and his reign in the WH.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Biden will announce new federal regulations on so called “ghost guns”, targeting privately made firearms that can be assembled from do-it-yourself kits purchased online or in a store. The new rules will clarify that the unfinished parts sold in the kits, such as the fame of a handgun or the receiver of a long gun, will qualify as firearms under federal law.

OBSERVATION - More to diminish the 2d amendment rights and disarm americans.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

MSM increasingly reporting that the democrats are facing a dumpster fire disaster in November. Not good when they start to jump ship.

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China -

China delivered newer ADA missile systems to Serbia over the past couple days. This spiked European concerns that this ally of Moscow is preparing to escalate against other former Yugoslavian states.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia’s newly appointed battlefield commander in Ukraine made his reputation crushing resistance to Syrian President Bashar Assad during that country’s devastating civil war. Russian forces led by Gen. Alexander Dvornikov destroyed whole cities while dropping barrel bombs that targeted civilians. With Moscow supporting Assad, the war in Syria has killed more than 350,000 people.
OBSERVATION - Could signal Moscows designs for a similar scorched earth campaign in Ukraine.

The Russian Ambassador to the United State; Anatoly Antonov, recently said that western shipments of arms to Ukraine which are being used against Russia Forces are beginning to reach a breaking-point in which an Ddrect conflict between the U.S/NATO and Russia is very likely.

OBSERVATION - This is not new rhetoric though the ambassador to the United States rarely makes such inflammatory statements. So far Russia hasn’t been able to stop the resupply effort to Ukraine and make take more direct efforts to do so, especially if the Dombas offensive boggs down.

Logistics -
- There are those who state that Russia will overwhelm Ukraine by there volumes. One measure they like to point out are the thousands of tanks Russia reportedly have. On paper Russia had thousands of fully armed and equipped tanks and other armored vehicles in reserve for quickly replacing combat losses. Not surprisingly those reserve vehicles were often in bad shape, having been poorly maintained by conscripts and larcenous civilians who made a lot of money by taking key items from these vehicles and selling them on the black market. These missing items were usually not reported missing until troops received these vehicles, which were generally mobile enough to be driven onto a railroad flatcar for transportation to units needing them. Once received these reserve vehicles were found missing equipment and in need of extensive repairs to make the vehicles combat ready.
- Current baseline Russian armor losses. Based on confirmed counts by Oryx, we have the following-
- Russian Army have visually lost 18/187=9.6% of its T-90A fleet,
- 151/1054=14.3% of its T-72B3/B3M fleet,
- 60/186=32.3% of its T-80U fleet,
- 21/72=29.6% of its T-80BVM fleet.
- Actual figure will be significantly larger with the 60 unknown pieces.
- So the Russian Ground Forces have visually (always note it is the baseline figure!) lost 467/1400=33.35% tanks deployed in Ukraine in the first 46 days of battle. ( oryx)

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Britain’s Ministry of Defence said: ‘In response to mounting losses, the Russian armed forces seek to bolster troop numbers with personnel discharged from military service since 2012.. ‘Efforts to generate more fighting power also include trying to recruit from the unrecognized Transnistria region of Moldova.’
- At least 15,000 Russian troops have been killed in Ukraine, with a total 40,000 wounded, dead or captured since Putin’s invasion began on February 24. This is about 55K out of a starting force of about 180K - approximately 1/3. To keep in perspective, Russian losses for their entire time in Afghanistan was something like 10K.

Economic Impacts -
- Russian economy to contract 11.2%: - World Bank
- Russian Railways are in default
- Russia’s finance minister said the country would take legal action if it’s forced to default on its external debt, the Izvestia newspaper reported on Monday.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 19th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia focused heavy artillery and bombing on the Khariv region, likely due to trying to fix Ukrainan forces in place and allow its formerly northern forces to move southward to the Izyum region unopposed. However, Ukraine hunter/killer teams and other elements are still managing to hit these columns.

Russians used more missiles last night, striking the Dombas region as well as Western Ukraine / Livi area.

The defenders of Maripol are still holding on.

In other areas, action seems to have dropped to a lower level. A calm before the storm.

Kyiv front -
North of Kyiv, Ukraine continues doing de-mining operations
Residents of Borodianka expect to find dozens of victims under the rubble of the several buildings destroyed during fighting between Russian forces and Ukrainian troops. The town is about 75 kilometers (47 miles) northwest of the capital of Kyiv

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Continued clearing of any mines

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Continued clearing of mines

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Intense bombing and artillery strikes hit Kharkiv and surrounding suburbs and towns overnight.

Russian troops remotely deployed anti-personnel mines in residential district in Kharkiv, rescuers asking citizens not to approach them

Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances .

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders. Getting a clear picture of the fighting and force distribution is difficult as much of the fight is now on a house to house basis.

Crimea Front -
Mykolaiv had major missile strikes in the city suburbs overnight.

Western Ukraine -
Missile strikes reported in the Lviv outskirts.

OUTLOOK -

Rainy season is progressing and that bodes ill for Russian armor. This may limit its armor superiority it is massing to try to capture the Dombas region. Tankers like to maneuver, and not get road bound. Unlike in the north, the terrain is more open with fewer big cities and chokepoints that aided the Ukraine forces. However, Ukraine forces in the south are the best trained and have been preparing for war since 2014 separatist fight. Open, exposed areas will make Russian tanks very open to the layers of ATGMs Ukraine has.

Analysts still crystal balling when Russia will kick things off. If you looked at the Russian tank losses, there is a lot of reconstitution northern forces will need to accomplish. Plus, how hard was the road convoy on those poorly maintained vehicles and how may will make it to jump off locations. Observers/analysts are not convinced that the designation of Gen. Alexander Dvornikov as overall theatre commander will be enough to sort out the logistics mess nor correct Russian’s poor performance so far. Russia does have a better situation, concentrated forces, less stretched out, but still a logistical nightmare as well as a combat coordination challenge.

Russia’s buildup and eventual kick off of the offensive will be under better intelligence eyes than the attacks in the north. Up to a dozen intel aircraft from multiple NATO nations have been up daily flying the Ukraine southern border and shifting to southern Ukraine will place their collection capabilities in their sweet spot. Ukraine will benefit from more real-time actionable intel.

Finally, watching to see if Transnistria will play a similar support role that Belarus has for Russian air and missile strikes.
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Europe / NATO General -

Lithuania announces plans to train Ukraine to use Western weapons

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Israel -

Armed militants deployed throughout Jenin, West Bank, anticipating another raid by Israeli forces.
OBSERVATION - There is a lot of Ramadan to go and radical groups like Hamas and PIJ have elements in Jenin wound up tight.
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Iran -

Iranian Foreign Ministry: Washington has not even shown that it is serious about returning to the nuclear agreement
OBSERVATION - Iran continues to allow this to drag out to their advantage.
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Misc of Note -

Puerto Rico slowing getting power back on line. Still narrowing down the reason for the outage but looking closely at a ‘breaker’ in one of the substations failing for an unknown reason.
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