Replies

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Globalism / Great Reset -

UN Claim: “Humans have less than three years to halt the rise of planet-warming carbon emissions and less than a decade to slash them by nearly half, UN climate experts said. … It’s a last-gasp race to ensure the world has a “liveable future”.
OBSERVATION - Expect wuhan like emergency declarations soon. This is next on the GGR hit parade.
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Economy -

The average American household will have to spend an additional $5,200 this year ($433 per month) to live the exact same life as a result of record inflation, according to a study from Bloomberg.

Commodities prices could rise by 40 percent and will likely continue to go higher, according to a note from JPMorgan Chase from April 7, as raw materials hit a record high last month following Western sanctions on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.
The commodities affected include oil, which is already up 33 percent from the same month the previous year, while natural gas has gone up by 65 percent since the invasion roiled the markets.
Metals excluding gold, such as copper, are up by 7 percent from 2021, while wheat has surged upward by 33 percent.

OBSERVATIONS - Look at your budget and needs 6 months out NOW and try to purchase those essentials now. Fun money is going to be scarce very soon, so readjust your budget.
PERSONAL - I’ve been following my own advice here in the Redoubt. Months ago when I posted on impending baby formula shortages, I stocked upon with about 9 months worth to make sure my soon to arrive next grandbaby is covered. Now I’m getting 2+ cords of wood to beat prices and availability (fire season may shut down wood cutters).
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Invasion of Illegals -

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) says President Joe Biden could potentially entice 20,000 to 30,000 border crossers and illegal aliens to the United States-Mexico border every day if he follows through on plans to end the Title 42 public health authority.
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Biden / Harris watch -

The Hunter scandal continues to gain traction in the MSM! suggesting that things may be hot for brandon and his reign in the WH.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Biden will announce new federal regulations on so called “ghost guns”, targeting privately made firearms that can be assembled from do-it-yourself kits purchased online or in a store. The new rules will clarify that the unfinished parts sold in the kits, such as the fame of a handgun or the receiver of a long gun, will qualify as firearms under federal law.

OBSERVATION - More to diminish the 2d amendment rights and disarm americans.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

MSM increasingly reporting that the democrats are facing a dumpster fire disaster in November. Not good when they start to jump ship.

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China -

China delivered newer ADA missile systems to Serbia over the past couple days. This spiked European concerns that this ally of Moscow is preparing to escalate against other former Yugoslavian states.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia’s newly appointed battlefield commander in Ukraine made his reputation crushing resistance to Syrian President Bashar Assad during that country’s devastating civil war. Russian forces led by Gen. Alexander Dvornikov destroyed whole cities while dropping barrel bombs that targeted civilians. With Moscow supporting Assad, the war in Syria has killed more than 350,000 people.
OBSERVATION - Could signal Moscows designs for a similar scorched earth campaign in Ukraine.

The Russian Ambassador to the United State; Anatoly Antonov, recently said that western shipments of arms to Ukraine which are being used against Russia Forces are beginning to reach a breaking-point in which an Ddrect conflict between the U.S/NATO and Russia is very likely.

OBSERVATION - This is not new rhetoric though the ambassador to the United States rarely makes such inflammatory statements. So far Russia hasn’t been able to stop the resupply effort to Ukraine and make take more direct efforts to do so, especially if the Dombas offensive boggs down.

Logistics -
- There are those who state that Russia will overwhelm Ukraine by there volumes. One measure they like to point out are the thousands of tanks Russia reportedly have. On paper Russia had thousands of fully armed and equipped tanks and other armored vehicles in reserve for quickly replacing combat losses. Not surprisingly those reserve vehicles were often in bad shape, having been poorly maintained by conscripts and larcenous civilians who made a lot of money by taking key items from these vehicles and selling them on the black market. These missing items were usually not reported missing until troops received these vehicles, which were generally mobile enough to be driven onto a railroad flatcar for transportation to units needing them. Once received these reserve vehicles were found missing equipment and in need of extensive repairs to make the vehicles combat ready.
- Current baseline Russian armor losses. Based on confirmed counts by Oryx, we have the following-
- Russian Army have visually lost 18/187=9.6% of its T-90A fleet,
- 151/1054=14.3% of its T-72B3/B3M fleet,
- 60/186=32.3% of its T-80U fleet,
- 21/72=29.6% of its T-80BVM fleet.
- Actual figure will be significantly larger with the 60 unknown pieces.
- So the Russian Ground Forces have visually (always note it is the baseline figure!) lost 467/1400=33.35% tanks deployed in Ukraine in the first 46 days of battle. ( oryx)

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Britain’s Ministry of Defence said: ‘In response to mounting losses, the Russian armed forces seek to bolster troop numbers with personnel discharged from military service since 2012.. ‘Efforts to generate more fighting power also include trying to recruit from the unrecognized Transnistria region of Moldova.’
- At least 15,000 Russian troops have been killed in Ukraine, with a total 40,000 wounded, dead or captured since Putin’s invasion began on February 24. This is about 55K out of a starting force of about 180K - approximately 1/3. To keep in perspective, Russian losses for their entire time in Afghanistan was something like 10K.

Economic Impacts -
- Russian economy to contract 11.2%: - World Bank
- Russian Railways are in default
- Russia’s finance minister said the country would take legal action if it’s forced to default on its external debt, the Izvestia newspaper reported on Monday.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 19th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia focused heavy artillery and bombing on the Khariv region, likely due to trying to fix Ukrainan forces in place and allow its formerly northern forces to move southward to the Izyum region unopposed. However, Ukraine hunter/killer teams and other elements are still managing to hit these columns.

Russians used more missiles last night, striking the Dombas region as well as Western Ukraine / Livi area.

The defenders of Maripol are still holding on.

In other areas, action seems to have dropped to a lower level. A calm before the storm.

Kyiv front -
North of Kyiv, Ukraine continues doing de-mining operations
Residents of Borodianka expect to find dozens of victims under the rubble of the several buildings destroyed during fighting between Russian forces and Ukrainian troops. The town is about 75 kilometers (47 miles) northwest of the capital of Kyiv

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Continued clearing of any mines

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Continued clearing of mines

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Intense bombing and artillery strikes hit Kharkiv and surrounding suburbs and towns overnight.

Russian troops remotely deployed anti-personnel mines in residential district in Kharkiv, rescuers asking citizens not to approach them

Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances .

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders. Getting a clear picture of the fighting and force distribution is difficult as much of the fight is now on a house to house basis.

Crimea Front -
Mykolaiv had major missile strikes in the city suburbs overnight.

Western Ukraine -
Missile strikes reported in the Lviv outskirts.

OUTLOOK -

Continued slug fest in Maripol with Ukraine defenders holding on by their fingernails. It appears that Russia wants to end this as soon as possible in order to redirect forces into the Dombas campaign.

Rainy season is progressing and that bodes ill for Russian armor. This may limit its armor superiority it is massing to try to capture the Dombas region. Tankers like to maneuver, and not get road bound. Unlike in the north, the terrain is more open with fewer big cities and chokepoints that aided the Ukraine forces. However, Ukraine forces in the south are the best trained and have been preparing for war since 2014 separatist fight. Open, exposed areas will make Russian tanks very open to the layers of ATGMs Ukraine has.

Analysts still crystal balling when Russia will kick things off. If you looked at the Russian tank losses, there is a lot of reconstitution northern forces will need to accomplish. Plus, how hard was the road convoy on those poorly maintained vehicles and how may will make it to jump off locations. Observers/analysts are not convinced that the designation of Gen. Alexander Dvornikov as overall theatre commander will be enough to sort out the logistics mess nor correct Russian’s poor performance so far. Russia does have a better situation, concentrated forces, less stretched out, but still a logistical nightmare as well as a combat coordination challenge.

Russia’s buildup and eventual kick off of the offensive will be under better intelligence eyes than the attacks in the north. Up to a dozen intel aircraft from multiple NATO nations have been up daily flying the Ukraine southern border and shifting to southern Ukraine will place their collection capabilities in their sweet spot. Ukraine will benefit from more real-time actionable intel.

Finally, watching to see if Transnistria will play a similar support role that Belarus has for Russian air and missile strikes.
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Europe / NATO General -

Lithuania announces plans to train Ukraine to use Western weapons

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Israel -

Armed militants deployed throughout Jenin, West Bank, anticipating another raid by Israeli forces.
OBSERVATION - There is a lot of Ramadan to go and radical groups like Hamas and PIJ have elements in Jenin wound up tight.
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Iran -

Iranian Foreign Ministry: Washington has not even shown that it is serious about returning to the nuclear agreement
OBSERVATION - Iran continues to allow this to drag out to their advantage.
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Misc of Note -

Puerto Rico slowing getting power back on line. Still narrowing down the reason for the outage but looking closely at a ‘breaker’ in one of the substations failing for an unknown reason.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Crisis upon crisis, conflict upon conflict. What are the puzzle pieces the GGR are putting together.
- Economic crisis, trending to a hard recession ore even depression
- Energy crisis
- LGBTQ issues - trying to recruit our children’
- CRT (and renamed equivalents)
- Illegal tsunami
- Govt spying on citizens
- Corruption of the election system
- Food and other supply shortages
- Rampant crime
- homelessness
- war

These and I’ve probably missed a couple, are being manipulated by the power that be to drive sheeple towards some one who can solve these problems. None of the following sections are isolated from GGR influences and attempts to manipulate.

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Wuhan virus -

The Philadelphia Department of Public Health announced Monday that it will reinstate the city’s indoor mask mandate, just over a month after lifting it.
Health Commissioner Dr. Cheryl Bettigole said the department will allow a one-week education period for businesses, with masks required in all indoor public spaces, including schools and child care settings, business, restaurants and government buildings, as of April 18.

OBSERVATION - Once again, its not about the disease but power.

Covid cases are starting to rise once again in parts of the U.S. after nearly three months of declines coming off of the massive winter Omicron surge - but health officials say it’s not a cause for concern because hospitalizations and deaths remain low. - Dr Ashish Jha, the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator

OBSERVATION - “Stealth” variation with very mild symptoms.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) bypassed many of its own protocols to speed through the authorization of Pfizer’s second booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine last week.
That FDA vaccine panel, the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC), is meeting Wednesday, and part of the agenda will be to discuss the fourth vaccine dose and the Israeli studies which are being used to exhibit its effectiveness. Typically, the vaccine authorization process would involve a meeting and vote by VRBPAC on whether to recommend authorization, followed by the FDA head granting that authorization. Then, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) vaccine committee would vote on how to recommend the vaccine, which would then be determined by the CDC director.
Dr. Paul Offit, a co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine and member of VRBPAC, said he couldn’t explain why the FDA didn’t present its data to the committee first before moving ahead with authorization: “The way it’s working here is that the government basically just declares that this is what they’re going to do.”..

OBSERVATION - At this stage of the game, the FDA and CDC just don’t care anymore. Others are calling the shots.

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Economy -

The President is slated to announce that the Environmental Protection Agency will issue an emergency waiver permitting year-round sales of E15 gasoline, which contains a 15% ethanol blend, on a trip to Menlo, Iowa, where he’ll visit POET Bioprocessing, a biofuels plant that specializes in the creation of bioethanol.
OBSERVATION - this will not ease prices. Already US crops are having difficulties due to drought, lack of fertilizer and other chemicals and grossly higher prices to grow (diesel etc).

The latest estimates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) show around 24 million poultry birds like chickens and turkeys have died or been culled due to the virus since February. National egg prices are off the charts for this time of year because of tight supplies. The average price of a dozen eggs has jumped to $2.60, up from $1.20 in early January.
OBSERVATION - This flu is bad because it resides in wild birds that don’t get sick and easily spread it around during spring migration.

The U.S. winter wheat crop has emerged from dormancy in miserable condition following a historically dry winter in key production states, almost guaranteeing that the harvest will not rank among the country’s better ones.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture late on Monday said 30% of U.S. winter wheat was in good or excellent condition as of April 3, well below the trade expectation for 40% and the year-ago 53%. That was the agency’s first national assessment of wheat conditions since late November.
Crop health has rarely been this poor in early April. Only 27% of winter wheat in 1996 was good or excellent within the first 10 days of the month, and 2018 was close behind with 31%. Final yields were poor in 2018 but terrible in 1996.
OBSERVATION - Given poor growing conditions in many other countries (and China facing another miserable year) from droughts and lacking fertilizer yields will be way globally. Throw in Ukraine and Russia grain losses, things aren’t looking good. Some are forecasting a really messed up fall for food prices.

Chinese authorities continued enforcing COVID measures, including the lockdown of Shanghai, and the Port of Shanghai. The minimized operation of the port will eventually impact US ports once full operations begin again. Logistics analysts warn that the U.S. could experience another backlog at busy ports like Long Beach and Los Angeles .
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Invasion of Illegals -

Over a hundred Texas National Guard members in full riot gear practiced military maneuvers on the Texas border last week. The training is a part of Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s sweeping border security plans in anticipation of the federal government ending Title 42 practices.

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Biden / Harris watch -

BIDEN: “I know it’s controversial but I got it done once—ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines!”
“What do you think the deer you’re hunting wear Kevlar vests? What the hell ya need 20 bullets for? You must be a hell of a terrible shot. No, I’m serious. Think about it.”
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CW2/Domestic violence -

All House Democrats on the Judiciary Committee voted against a proposed amendment to a domestic terrorism bill that would have prevented American intelligence and security agencies from receiving taxpayer funds to “monitor, analyze, investigate or prosecute” Americans unvaccinated against COVID-19.
The bill in question, H.R. 350 or the Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2021, authorizes various federal agencies including the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Justice, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation to use taxpayer-funded resources to “analyze and monitor domestic terrorist activity” and “take steps to prevent domestic terrorism.”
The term “domestic terrorism,” however, has seen its definition reoriented under President Joe Biden, with a recent memo from the Department of Homeland Security claiming individuals spreading “conspiracy theories” and “disinformation” pose a significant threat to American national security. The document, released February, singled out individuals sharing election fraud and COVID-19-related stories.

OBSERVATION - democrats at war agains American citizens again. If, rather when the govt comes after citizens they will have a big list.

The United States Postal Service has suspended services in one neighborhood in Santa Monica, California, because of repeated attacks on mail carriers since January, according to a report. The notice explained that “multiple carriers have been subjected to assaults and threats of assault from an individual who has not been located or apprehended.”
A spokesperson for the Santa Monica Police Department told the outlet that the suspect is well known among officers, who’ve had several issues with him in the past, mostly related to domestic incidents.

Oak Park, CA – A burglary suspect was punched in the head and held down by an angry homeowner who allegedly found the suspect inside his residence last week.
Police said at least one of the suspects involved in the April 1 break-in at Sal Mercado’s Oak Park home is part of a so-called “crime tourist” ring from South America known as the South American Theft Group, KABC reported.
These offenders travel to California to burglarize residences, according to the news outlet.
Ventura County sheriff’s deputies arrived and took the suspect into custody. He was later identified as 43-year-old Alexis Provoste Aranguiz, who is from Chile, KABC reported.. Investigators said Aranguiz suffered multiple facial fractures during the scuffle.

OBSERVATION - NOW “crime tourist”!!!!

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
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Japan -

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian Personnel Issues -
- Another senior Russian officer has been killed in Ukraine. Colonel Vyacheslav Savinov was deputy chief of staff of the Russian Missile Troops and Artillery. Russia’s catastrophic losses in Ukraine now reportedly include 32 colonels and 7 generals
- Rumors of more difficulties signing up retirees, and former soldiers for the war effort.
- The Russian Defense Ministry is reportedly offering cash bonuses to incentivize forces withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine to reenter combat operations.

Economic Impacts -
- Nokia pulling out operations.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 19th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Yesterday the big stir was the report of Russia dispersing a poisonous substance of unknown origin against Ukrainian military and civilians in the city of Mariupol, which was dropped from an enemy UAV. The victims have respiratory failure. Apparently only a few people suffered effects. This claim was absent any further documentation or confirmation. Morning arm chairing by analysts and experts suggest two explanations. One could be the use
phosphorus (willie P). A more likely cause was put forth by a chemical weapons expert from the Royal United Services Institute, Dan Kaszeta, who said that the symptoms that the Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly showing - such as shortness of breath - might be explained by the inhalation of fumes caused by fighting in a heavily industrial area.
“Mariupol is one big toxic burn pit at the moment,” he said. “Somehow we’re supposed to assume that one small drone payload of something is tragically unhealthier than the rest of this mess of an environment.”
OBSERVATION - Meanwhile in Russian state media: more talk of using chemical weapons in Ukraine. The alleged attack came just hours after a pro-Russian general in Donbas appeared to promote the idea of using chemical weapons, telling state media it would ‘smoke the Ukrainian moles out of the underground’.

The defenders of Maripol are still holding on.

Fighting in the Donbas region continues with Russian assaults being turned back with no territorial gains. Very heavy artillery and bombing of the region by Russians.

Kyiv front -
North of Kyiv, Ukraine starting clean up.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Continued clearing of any mines

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Continued clearing of mines

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Intense bombing and artillery strikes continue to hit Kharkiv and surrounding suburbs and towns overnight. In part the artillery is designed to keep Ukrainan forces pinned and allow units to pass by to the east of Khariv. This has not stopped Ukrainan strikes on Russian convoys, inflicting a lot of armor and vehicle losses.

Ukrainian sappers stuck a key railroad bridge to the east of Khariv used to transport supplies and equipment to staging areas of of eastern Ukraine. The repair will likely take many months, impacting Russia logistics for the Donbas attack.

Russian forces failed to make significant advances in continued assaults on Severodonetsk, Popasna, and Rubizhne on April 11. They continue to a suffer heavy tank/armor losses in doing so. The Ukrainian General Staff stated Ukrainian forces repulsed four Russian attacks in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and claimed Ukrainian forces destroyed a battalion tactical group (BTG) of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment, killing the battalion commander and his Chief of Staff.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders. Getting a clear picture of the fighting and force distribution is difficult as much of the fight is now on a house to house basis. Reports of heavy fighting near the harbor. Unconfirmed reports from Ukrainan defenders suggest that they are near the end of their ability to maintain the defense and may only be able to hold out for just a few more days.

No advances northward from the separatist region.

Crimea Front -
Russian forces did not make any significant advances against Ukrainian positions in Kherson Oblast and continued to attempt to improve their defensive positions. Ukraine continues to push Russian forces southward from Kryvyi Rlh towards Kherson.

Western Ukraine -
No significant attacks overnight.

OUTLOOK -
Interesting view from the UK Ministry of Defence. They expect that over the coming two to three weeks that the fight in the east will grow worse as forces finally get redeployed fully from the north. This assessment suggests that Russia will continue to throw units essentially piecemeal in the Khariv sector of eastern Ukraine and not mass for a large assault incorporating the redeployed elements from the north. This seems to be just more of the same and Russian equipment losses continuing to be high, almost negating the redeploying forces. This is not what I expected, though the current trend doesn’t rule out a massive, combined assault within a couple weeks. Ukraine military anticipates this kind of massed attack.

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Europe / NATO General -

Austrian chancellor: Talks with Putin were not friendly

Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said NATO will undergo a major “reset” and plans to put enough troops in states that border Russia to repel an invasion. The alliance currently has 40,000 troops in eastern member states.

The Prime Minister of Slovakia: We are studying the supply of MiG-29s to Ukraine.

NATO has Announced today they will be Deploying 2 Multi-National Naval Groups consisting of 16 Ships to the Baltic Sea for Operational Exercises and to reassure Allies in the Baltics Region over the next week, the Groups will include Minesweepers, Amphibious Ships and Frigates.
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Israel -

Hamas stops Islamic Jihad from military escalation with Israel in Gaza.
OBSERVATION - Very nonspecific, however in the past this seems to refer to Hamas stopping PIJ from launching rockets from Gaza.

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Lebanon -

An explosions in the village of Houmine El-Tahta, Lebanon appears to have been a weapons/ammunition warehouse/storage. Explosion occurred near an office of the Amal movement. 3 injured and now one dead.
OBSERVATION - Ammo dumps are all over the place in Lebanon, holdovers from the civil war and now for current tensions driven by Hezebollah.

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