This is going to be a bit abbreviated today - have a bunch of work that has to take priority such has helping my daughter get her house ready for my next grandbaby.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Dr. Phillipa “Pippa” Malmgren, a technology entrepreneur and economist, spoke at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum being held in Davos, Switzerland, this week, dropping a bombshell prediction that the world is well on its way to implementing an electronic banking system that would open every transaction of every person to government scrutiny.
“And what we’re seeing in the world today is I think we are on the brink of a dramatic change where we are about to - and I’ll say this boldly - we’re about to abandon the traditional system of money and accounting and introduce a new one, and the new one - the new accounting - is what we call blockchain.”
“It means digital,” she continued. “It means having an almost perfect record of every single transaction that happens in the economy, which will give us far greater clarity over what’s going on.”
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OBSERVATION - With “clarity” comes greater control.
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Wuhan virus -
Residents of Shanghai are starting to protest the ongoing total lockdown of the city. Authorities now say they will ease restrictions after another mass test in China’s most populous city.
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Economy -
A national shortage of baby formula brought on by pandemic-related supply-chain issues has forced US retailers such as Walgreens to ration the all-important product.
The company - the second-largest pharmacy store chain in the United States behind CVS - said Friday that amid the supply-chain crunch, it is limiting customers to three infant and toddler formula product purchases at a time, at its 9,021 US locations.
OBSERVATION - Walmart and Costco has been rationing for at least the past 6 months now and IIRC I noted back then the impending shortage crisis. BTW I stocked up about 9 months worth for my grandbaby due later this month .
Prices for food commodities like grains and vegetable oils reached their highest levels ever last month because of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the “massive supply disruptions” it is causing, the United Nations said Friday.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said its Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of commodities, averaged 159.3 points last month, up 12.6% from February. As it is, the February index was the highest level since its inception in 1990.
OBSERVATION - The war has made a preexisting bad situation even worse.
(Reuters) - The macro-economic picture is deteriorating fast and could push the U.S. economy into recession as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy to tame surging inflation, BofA strategists warned in a weekly research note.
“’Inflation shock’ worsening, ‘rates shock’ just beginning, ‘recession shock’ coming”, BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note to clients, adding that in this context, cash, volatility, commodities and crypto currencies could outperform bonds and stocks.
OBSERVATION - Doesn’t this make you harken back to the days of “transitory” inflation. . . .
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Invasion of Illegals -
Border states taking more steps in anticipation of the tsunami of illegals expected in the coming month.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
Still laughing at how Musk is causing twitter - heads exploding.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Pelosi has tested positive for COVID-19, a day after appearing unmasked at a White House event with President Joe Biden. ...The 82-year-old Democratic leader’s announcement came ahead of her weekly press appearance on Capitol Hill. The House is set to start a two week spring recess.
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China -
See Wuhan above
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North/South Korea -
According to U.S. officials to CNN, North Korea’s nuclear test site could be ready in days. The U.S. is worried that North Korea could conduct a nuclear test or another missile test next week, especially on or around their Day of the Sun holiday (April 15th).
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russia’s ambassador to the US warns that West’s actions may lead to a military confrontation between Moscow and Washington
We now have an idea who’s in-charge of the Ukraine operation. Reports are that military leadership in Ukraine has been assigned to Gen Alexander Dvornikov. Western officials say the general has extensive experience of Russian operations in Syria.
The Russian Foreign Ministry transfers its “denazification” rhetoric on Ukraine to Latvia:
“The ruling regime in Latvia has long been well known for its neo-Nazi preferences and attempts to whitewash the atrocities of Nazi Germany ‘s henchmen”
OBSERVATION - The Baltic countries have been warning about Russian aggression and this rhetoric from Russia just reinforces the concerns.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia mobilizing 60,000 reservists to join the war in Ukraine: U.S. senior defense official NOTE - Its going to take weeks / months before these reservists are equipped, organized and made combat ready
- Russian forces are increasingly refusing to reenter combat, and the Kremlin remains unlikely to quickly redeploy effective forces from northeastern Ukraine to operations in Donbas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that more than 80% of personnel in some unspecified Russian units previously involved in combat operations are refusing to return to the front. Russian commanders are reportedly refusing to release soldiers whose service contracts have expired, forcing them to stay with their units.
- Another one bites the dust. Colonel Alexander Bespalov, the commander of the 59th Guards Tank Regiment (part of the 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division), was killed in Ukraine.
- Now rough estimates of Russia KIA stands at 19,000. Rough estimate of wounded would be about 57,000
Economic Impacts -
- S&P cuts Russia’s foreign currency rating to ‘selective default’
- Biden has signed into law the Suspending Normal Trade Relations with Russia and Belarus Act
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 16th with a lot of rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
‘Overwhelming’ number of Russian air strikes in past 24 hours are in Mariupol and other areas of eastern Ukraine . Intensive artillery, missile and bombing in the Dombas continues to intensify.
Ukraine keeps defeating attacks in the Dombas region while Russia struggles to redeploy combat effective forces from the North. New overall Russian CG named and will have his hands full trying to coordinate the effort.
Ukraine forces still advancing on Kherson and may potentially attempt to cross the Dniper River north of the town.
Kyiv front -
North of Kyiv, Ukraine continues doing de-mining operations, senior U.S. defense official says.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Continued clearing of any mines
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Continued clearing of mines
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces remain concentrated on taking Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk Oblast and concentrated on Marinka in Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces are establishing minefields around Kharkiv in expectation of Ukrainian counterattacks.
Russian forces continued attacks south of Izyum toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove on April 8 but did not take any new territory.
Heavy artillery and bombing of the Khariv area continue. Russian forces continue to shell cities in eastern and southern Ukraine, and strike targets elsewhere with missiles.
Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances .
Airstrikes in recent days are being concentrated heavily south of the Ukrainian town of Izyum and into the Joint Force Operations (JFO) area.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders. Russian forces have reportedly made it to the southern part of the port area. Other reports of Russian forces said to be just blocks away from Mariupol station. Remaining Ukrainian positions along the eastern bank of the Kal’mius are in trouble, too. However, it appears that Ukrainian forces retain control of defensive positions in eastern and southwestern Mariupol, despite Russian claims to have captured most of the city.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful operations to seize Popasna and Rubizhne and continued shelling along the entire line of contact in the past 24 hours.
Extensive artillery fire continues all along the LOC into the Donetsk region
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian counterattacks have likely taken further territory west of Kherson, threatening Russian control of the city. Russian forces in the southern direction remain on the defense and continue to lose ground.
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near or long term.
Western Ukraine -
More missile attacks across the region, but no signification targets mentioned, likely to maintain a degree of OPSEC.
OUTLOOK -
Continued Russian buildup in the East/Southeast Ukraine in anticipation of an offensive to seize the rest of the Dombas region. Russian difficulties in getting the redeployed units ready for combat may be the cause for the current delay, but analysts note that full operations are imminent. Russian attacks of recent may be probing attacks seeking ways to get the large contingent of forces through Ukrainan defenses.. A road bound assault will face a meat grinder as the failed attacks in the north have.
Russian air activity is expected to increase in Ukraine’s south and east, the UK’s Ministry of Defence says in its latest defense intelligence update.
Mariupol will continue to doggedly hold out - but unknown for how much longer. As with the rest of the Ukrainian defense, these units have over performed expectations, lasting weeks longer than they were believed they could.
Moscow’s forces are continuing to hit Ukrainian non-combatants, like those killed in Friday’s rocket strike on Kramatorsk railway station, it says.
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Belarus -
There are Unconfirmed reports that Multiple Eastern European/Asian Countries have begun to request their Citizens leave Belarus Immediately, these include Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, some have also started preparing Evacuation Flights from Belarus beginning today.
OBSERVATION - Observers are not certain as to the reason for the sudden action by these countries. One RUMIT thought is that Russia may be considering forcibly conscripting these individuals into the war effort.
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Europe / NATO General -
U.S. sending a Patriot missile system, manned by American troops, to Slovakia, after they provided Ukraine with an S-300 air defense system. The Pentagon Press Secretary affirmed that those sent to Slovakia are on “temporary” assignment.
US will deploy one Patriot missile system to Slovakia, US Defense Secretary Austin says
Appears like in exchange of Slovakia sending its S-300 to Ukraine
Finland bans overland freight transport with Russian, Belarusian license plates. The measure came into effect on April 9 according to the sanctions imposed by the European Union.
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Israel -
IDF to ramp up northern West Bank activity as PA said to be losing control of Jenin. Yesterday, ther were armed clashes during Israeli military patrols storming Jenin refugee camp .
OBSERVATION - Concerns of continued ‘lone wolf’ terror attacks based from the Jenin camp. If so, then Israeli responses will become stronger and stronger.
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Iran -
The Biden administration will not remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the US terror list even though it may be a dealbreaker for Tehran signing a revived nuclear deal, an unnamed US official has told The Washington Post.
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Wuhan virus -
Locally rising cases of the weak new wuhan variant is giving govts thoughts about reinstating mask mandates. As early as Monday, Philadelphia is expected to reimpose an indoor mask mandate because of increasing positive tests and hospitalizations.
Also, two prominent universities — Georgetown and Johns Hopkins — are mandating masking and have instituted testing requirements before students return from spring break.
There are still several states that are maintaining their emergency powers even though most of the rest of the country has ended theirs.
OBSERVATION - Its not about the disease, its all about power.
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Biden / Harris watch -
While introducing newly-confirmed Judge Ketanji Jackson at the White House, biden rambled on saying “I was in the the foothills of the Himalayas with Xi Jinping, traveling with him, that’s when I traveled 17,000 miles when I was Vice President. I don’t know that”
OBSERVATION - Verbal word salad like this is becoming an increasing standard when biden speaks. To swing into a conspiratorial mode, the powers that be may be allowing him to dig his own hole as ammunition for is eventual removal from office.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas delivered a speech to Al Sharpton’s National Action Network conference in New York City on Friday. He told those attending the conference that “the greatest terrorism-related threat that we face in the homeland is the threat of domestic violent extremism.” By this Mayorkas was confirming that to represent White supremacists.
OBSERVATION - This has been a recurring theme since 0bama years. After Jan 6th, this list has expanded to include many ‘white’ ideas and thought such as love of country, God, etc.. Policies like this are setting up potential govt targeting of much of the population if things go sidewise.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The Patriot battery going to Slovakia will include US personnel to operate it.
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North/South Korea -
After a conference between US and South Korean officials in Washington on Tuesday (April 5), South Korean lawmaker Park Jin stated that “deploying strategic assets is an important part of strengthening extended deterrence” and that both countries “discussed the issue today in that sense.” Among the US strategic assets South Korea wants to be redeployed to its territory are nuclear-powered submarines, aircraft carriers and long-range bombers.
OBSERVATION - This level of cooperation between the US and SK is going to cause Kim fits. It is a 180 degree reversal of previous SK policy of appeasement.
NK holiday - North Korea will celebrate the birth of the country’s founder, Kim Il Sung, on April 15. Kim is the grandfather of current dictator Kim Jong Un.
OBSERVATION - This is why analysts and observers are looking to this date for a possible nuclear test.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russia staged war games in Kaliningrad according to Reuters News “Up to 1,000 military personnel. and more than 60 military equipment units were involved,” - Russian Baltic Fleet Command’s press service.
Russia has forcibly relocated many Ukraines into Russia. There Russia has fast tracked the adoption of Ukraine Orphans. This is just another war crime as identified below.
Article II of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide:
E) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
War could potentially spread outside of Ukraine if Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria serves as an air base for Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine Ukraine has warned that it will shoot down Russian jets that are en route to Tiraspol
A lot of discussion on the assessment of Russian losses and the combat readiness of redeploying units from the north. 29 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups are reportedly combat ineffective after sustaining heavy losses & logistical failures in Ukraine per U.S. officials to CNN. Others assess the loss of BTGs at 20 “destroyed” and about 40 more combat ineffective. This comes out to about a loss of a third of Russia’s pre invasion forces.
Many of the losses were concentrated in some of Russia’s best units - airborne. Naval Infantry. and Guards tank regiments. This does not take into account other BTGs that lost some vehicles/personnel but are still considered “fit”. This analysis is essential to evaluate the combat effectiveness of the Phase 2 Dombas campaign by Russia. In addition to it, unit cohesiveness/coordination and morale are key issues.
A good discussion of the issue if found at the following link.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9
RUMINT -
Top FSB general was ‘moved to high-security Moscow jail’ as Putin steps up purge of spies who ‘told him Ukrainians would welcome invasion’. Sergei Beseda, now former head of the 5th Service of the FSB, was earlier under house arrest. He has now been placed in pre-trial detention in notorious Lefortovo Prison The move will be seen as a warning to other senior aides of Vladimir Putin
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is trying to keep as many as 30 BTGs in a position to threaten Kyiv in an effort to freeze the transfer of forces by Ukraine to the Dombas region.
Logistics -
- Discussion among analysts on how long it will take Russia to refit units pulled out of N Ukraine to make them ready for the impending Dombas campaign. Some are placing this in the range of weeks or even months. There is evidence that Russian forces are in the process of moving to the Eastern Ukraine area - most noteworthy VDV forces, so there appears to be a spectrum of deployment dates.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian troop call ups continue, however, many thing it will take as long as months to have them ready to deploy into the Ukranian fight.
Economic Impacts -
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 19th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
RUMINT -
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a surprise visit to Kyiv. He met with Zelensky and promised more aid including Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
Fighting in the Dombas region is ongoing, but ho significant Russian or Ukrainan gains/losses.
Heavy missile and air strikes in the Dombas region.
Kyiv front -
North of Kyiv, Ukraine continues doing de-mining operations
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Continued clearing of any mines
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Continued clearing of mines
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian military forces destroyed big Russian military column on the way to Izyum.
Other unconfirmed reports that this column was grouped in Kupianki. They were ambushed before the intersection of the road to Izjum and suffered substantial losses. Ukrainian forces have effectively blocked the intersection, at least for the time being.
It is also unknown if this is the same 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk from a video posted by a Russian(?) source.
Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances .
Numerous airstrikes and missile attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk region including at least 7 striking Dnipro itself
OOOPS After hitting the industrial facility with artillery, Aerosols from the explosion of a cylinder with 4 tons of nitric acid spread towards the positions of the Russian military near Kudryashivka and Varvarivka.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders. Russian forces have reportedly made it to the southern part of the port area. Other reports of Russian forces said to be just blocks away from Mariupol station. Getting a clear picture of the fighting and force distribution is difficult as much of the fight is now on a house to house basis.
Crimea Front -
Ukraine forces continue to pressure Kherson from both the southwest and north.
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near or long term.
Western Ukraine -
No significant activity noted.
OUTLOOK -
Continued force build up in Eastern Ukraine along with Russian probing attacks to pin and identigy weaknesses in Ukrainan forces for later exploitation. Continued heavy bombing and missile attacks deeper in the Dombas region. I don’t think Russia has enough forces yet to launch a major attack and doesn’t want to peace-meal units into the attack as they arrive.
Continued slug fest in Maripol with Ukraine defenders holding on by their fingernails. It appears that Russia wants to end this as soon as possible in order to redirect forces into the Dombas campaign.
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Europe / NATO General -
‘If President Putin wants less NATO on his borders, he will get more NATO at his borders’ An interview with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
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Pakistan -
Pakistan’s lawmakers have voted to remove Prime Minister Imran Khan from office in a vote of no confidence. The nuclear-armed Islamic nation has been in political turmoil for weeks. But he was accused by his detractors of economic mismanagement and foreign-policy mistakes.
Skyrocketing inflation, rising unemployment, a weak currency and a heavy debt burden also hurt his popularity.
While Khan’s supporters viewed him as the last hope for Pakistani politics, opponents chastised him for his willingness to accommodate Islamists and antagonize the West.
Shehbaz Sharif is likely to become the next Prime Minister of Pakistan. He is known for his “can-do” administrative styles & wants to have better relations with the United States.
High alert was ordered at all Pakistani airports, no senior state member or government official is allowed to leave the country without an NOC. Hospitals in Islamabad placed on high alert also, says police commandos, paramilitary, and snipers are deployed in Islamabad, reports Pakistani Army vehicles roam the streets.
Protests are erupting in the streets of Pakistan over Parliament’s removal of PM Imran Kahn from office. The Pakistan military has banned any government officials from leaving the country.
India’s military is on increased alert status due to this political turmoil.
OBSERVATION - This is a nuclear armed country that needs stable leadership to prevent a nuclear war with India. It has had a lot to turmoil over recent history. Right now it appears the military is supporting the idea of a new govt, ensuring as relatively smooth power transition.
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Israel -
The IDF says 20 Palestinians suspected of terror activity were arrested in overnight raids across the West Bank. 11 Palestinians were injured in clashes with Israeli forces in the areas of Jenin and Tulkarm.
Unusually fierce bombardment by Israeli yesterday. At least 5 aistrikes hit 3 different places in area of Masyaf Syria. One, a weapons laboratory near Zawi, known to have produced barrel bombs & currently used by Iran/Hezbollah was among the targets. This facility has been hit in the past.
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