If you haven’t figured this out yet, the world is becoming less stable at an increasing rate. This summary tries to snapshot the stability (or lack thereof) on a subjective basis (mine). We are an interconnected world, and what happens in parts of the world has ripples that affect us.
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
_____________________________
Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.
Obama spoke Wednesday at an event sponsored by The Atlantic and the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics, “Disinformation and the Erosion of Democracy.” He called for government control over the Internet in order to stem the “demand for crazy” that was spreading what he called “disinformation.”
OBSERVATION - Claims of ‘disinformation” or ‘misinformation’ is all over out there being used as a basis to control discussions. GGR needs tight control of the narrative to maintain control of the sheeple. This was brought fully into the picture from the wuhan dumpster fire where the govt claimed individuals passed ‘misinformation ‘ and those people lost their jobs.
________________________________
Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.
Democrats facing a ‘super spreader’ event fallout from recent democrat events. Pelosi may have exposed biden to the wuhan before diagnosed herself.
An Israeli study found that a fourth dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine doesn’t offer long-lived protection against the Omicron variant of the CCP virus.
Using Ministry of Health data on more than 1.2 million people, researchers found that a second booster dose of the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine offered protection against significant COVID-19 infections for six weeks. But protection against all virus infections started to drop quickly after four weeks and nearly disappeared after eight weeks, according to the study, which was published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Several weeks ago, Israeli researchers found in a separate preprint study that the protection from a second Pfizer booster quickly diminished.
_____________________________
Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.
Jim Bullard, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, during a presentation Thursday at the University of Missouri-Columbia said inflation is “a mess that we haven’t seen in 40 years,” and the Fed’s benchmark interest rate needs to increase to 3.5% from the current 0.5%.
OBSERVATION - increasing rates too high, too fast could backfire and crash the economy into a depression. Many economists pessimistic about the Fed’s ability to land the interest plane without crashing it.
______________________________
Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s removal of Title 42 measures guarantees an uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month. States of AZ and TX may take stronger measures by declaring an invasion and deploying forces to the border.
______________________________
Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Increasing rumors that the swamp is viewing biden as a detriment in spite of their ability to control him and may be looking to put him out to pasture sooner rather than later. Their problem is what to do with airhead Harris.
___________________________
CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa maintaining lowered presence outside of base areas (Portland, Seattle etc). There are continued events like first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
_________________________________
Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022)
US actively delivering war supplies to Poland for shipment into Ukraine. US forces are deployed to the region as well as maintaining presence in the Western Pacific to deter China.
_________________________________
Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
Continued warnings of Russian cyber attacks against US power and financial networks.
_________________________________
China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan has been canceled due to her coming down with wuhan.
____________________________________
North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
Nuclear test watch over the next week. Hurried preparations continue to be observed at the test site.
___________________________________
Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT -Russia has pivoted its focus to Eastern Ukraine and capture of the Dombas region. Russian troops pulled from northern Ukraine are reportedly being refurbished and transferred to Eastern Ukraine to support the attack.
Russia facing a propaganda nightmare due to the massacre of civilians north of Kyiv as well as indiscriminate bombing of residential areas.
*********
The U.N. General Assembly voted Thursday to suspend Russia from the world organization’s leading human rights body over allegations of horrific rights violations by Russian soldiers in Ukraine, which the United States and Ukraine have called tantamount to war crimes.
Hackers who operate on behalf of the cyber collective Anonymous claim that they’ve gained access to the Kremlin’s CCTV system. They warned Putin: “We won’t stop until we reveal all of your secrets. You won’t be able to stop us.”
Personnel Issues -
- In a shocking admission, Russian officials acknowledge heavy personnel losses.
- Unconfirmed reports that Russian military has begun recruiting conscripts who have been discharged from military service since 2012 and is summoning them for a special three-month training period before deployment to active units
- Reports that Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine are currently residing in tent camps and face declining morale.
Equipment Issues -
- Russia continuing to suffer from heavy equipment losses. Documented losses have skyrocketed as Ukraine forces consolidate the north.
Economic Hits -
- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has announced new sanctions on Russia, including a coal ban, slamming Moscow for violations of international law in Ukraine
- US Senate has voted to end normal trade ties with Russia over their invasion of Ukraine
____________________________________
Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine has entered its second month.
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 15th show warm with increasing rain/showers. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia continued missile and bombing attacks across the nation, focused mostly on the Dombas region. Ukranians are departing the region to avoid being caught up in the fighting. Ukrainian forces “are absolutely adapting and adjusting in real time to Russian efforts now to increase their activities there” in eastern Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says. Russia has continued to gain the initiative in the east but are repulsed by Ukraine forces.
Intelligence assessments on the fight for Dombas indicate that Russian forces will likely attempt to regroup and redeploy units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine to support an offensive, but these units are unlikely to enable a Russian breakthrough.
More and more evidence of war crime atrocities in the north continue to be revealed. The scale of atrocities in Melitopol may well be orders of magnitude greater.
Kyiv front -
Indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are conducting “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place. It is unlikely that these forces have signifiant combat capability and unlikely to launch any attacks.
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, Foreign Affairs rep of the European Union Josep Borrell, and Prime Minister of Slovakia Eduard Heger visited Bucha.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Consolidation and clean up of Russian mines ongoing.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Consolidation and clean up of Russian mines ongoing.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian and Ukraine forces still are clashing in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Russian forces along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis did not make any territorial gains in the last 24 hours.
Russian forces continued to shell civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and its outskirts and seek to fix Ukrainian forces in place. More intense artillery and bombing in the eastern Ukraine LOC around Izyum and Slovyansk.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. It is unclear how much longer the Ukrainian defenders can hold out.
Russian proxy forces claimed to have captured central Mariupol on April 7, but Ukrainian forces still dispute the area and apparently have better control of suburb areas.
Russian troops seized evacuation buses with humanitarian aid to Melitopol’ according to the head of regional administration.
Separatist/Russian forces made little to no gains in the sector to join forces trying to come down out of the north from Izyum-Slovyansk
Overnight Russian forces launched at least two Tochka-U rocket from separatist held area and hit the rail road station in Kramatorsk, killing at least 50 and wounding hundreds of civilians who were gathered there to evacuate out of the region ahead of the impending Russian assault.
Kremlin affiliated media first proudly reported the Kramatorsk massacre, claiming their missile hit an ammunition train that arrived yesterday evening. After the appearance of civilian casualties, they started blaming Ukraine.
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian advances in Kherson Oblast have slowed as Russian forces continued efforts to improve their defensive positions in Kherson.
Russian amphibious operations against the Odessa region are off the table for now.
Western Ukraine -
Missile attacks in the region were reported but no significant targets reported were hit. Silence on this point may be OPSEC to deny Russia BDA.
OUTLOOK -
Continued build up of Russian forces in the east as those that were battered in the north are refitted, reconsolidated and moved there. Russia is betting it all on the capture of the Dombas region and is devoting the bulk of its resources to the fight. Some of this may also be driven by a theatre commander running the show rather than each CAA doing their own thing. The assessment that the redeployed Russian forces will not be adequate to sway the battle in this area and that Ukraine is showing great flexibility in getting reinforcements and equipment there quicker than the Russians are able to. Old saying - who ever gets there the firstist with the mostest wins.
More civilian deaths are being discovered. Combination of deliberate assassination by Russian troops along with deliberate targeting of residential areas and civilian shelters killing even more. This is resulting in Russia becoming increasingly isolated diplomatically as well as economically.
Ukraine still holds out in Mariupol, and their dogged determination is amazing, how much longer they can hold out is uncertain.
____________________________________
Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
Belarus facing increasing sanctions due to their support of the Russian invasion.
________________________________________
Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
________________________________________
Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Russian threats against these countries are less vocal/open. Russia may be very wary of hitting any of these nations (particularly Poland) conventionally due to Article 5 and the sorry state of its military forces in and around Ukraine.
Spanish Foreign Minister: The attack on the Kramatorsk station is a flagrant violation of international law aimed at punishing civilians
Finland making preparations to apply for NATO membership as early as this summer.
Greece will ask the International Criminal Court to investigate war crimes in Mariupol. There is a substantial Greek population in the town.
Eighteen countries (Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Greece, Portugal, Estonia, Latvia, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, North Macedonia, Luxembourg, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, and Denmark) have now expelled a total of 318 Russian diplomats.
Japan joins Western nations in expelling Russian diplomats, kicking out eight, Foreign Ministry says
Montenegro announced the expulsion of 4 Russian diplomats
Slovakia gives S-300 air defense systems to Ukraine
____________________________________
Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.
Two Israeli civilians killed in shooting attack in Tel Aviv. The terrorist who carried out the deadly attack was identified as 28-year-old Jenin resident Ra’ad Hazem. He was killed in a pre-dawn firefight near a closed Jaffa mosque where he was hiding out hours after the killing spree. Hazem wa from the Shin Bet. He had no apparent terror group affiliation. No prior arrests. Illegally in Israel at the time of attack. No terror group has claimed credit for the attack either, though several praised it.
Bennett ordered northern West Bank crossings closed ‘until further notice’.
OBSERVATION - Israel is close to dropping the hammer on Palestinians in the West Bank, but are trying to hold off because of Ramadan and such would be adding fuel to the fire.
____________________________________
Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
Iran continues to have its way in talks over a new nuclear agreement.
_________________________________
Armenia/Azerbaijan - BLUE ( updated 03/25/22)
Both countries are meeting to try to work out recent issues
____________________________________
This is going to be a bit abbreviated today - have a bunch of work that has to take priority such has helping my daughter get her house ready for my next grandbaby.
________________________________
Globalism / Great Reset -
Dr. Phillipa “Pippa” Malmgren, a technology entrepreneur and economist, spoke at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum being held in Davos, Switzerland, this week, dropping a bombshell prediction that the world is well on its way to implementing an electronic banking system that would open every transaction of every person to government scrutiny.
“And what we’re seeing in the world today is I think we are on the brink of a dramatic change where we are about to - and I’ll say this boldly - we’re about to abandon the traditional system of money and accounting and introduce a new one, and the new one - the new accounting - is what we call blockchain.”
“It means digital,” she continued. “It means having an almost perfect record of every single transaction that happens in the economy, which will give us far greater clarity over what’s going on.”
\
OBSERVATION - With “clarity” comes greater control.
_____________________________
Wuhan virus -
Residents of Shanghai are starting to protest the ongoing total lockdown of the city. Authorities now say they will ease restrictions after another mass test in China’s most populous city.
_____________________________
Economy -
A national shortage of baby formula brought on by pandemic-related supply-chain issues has forced US retailers such as Walgreens to ration the all-important product.
The company - the second-largest pharmacy store chain in the United States behind CVS - said Friday that amid the supply-chain crunch, it is limiting customers to three infant and toddler formula product purchases at a time, at its 9,021 US locations.
OBSERVATION - Walmart and Costco has been rationing for at least the past 6 months now and IIRC I noted back then the impending shortage crisis. BTW I stocked up about 9 months worth for my grandbaby due later this month .
Prices for food commodities like grains and vegetable oils reached their highest levels ever last month because of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the “massive supply disruptions” it is causing, the United Nations said Friday.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said its Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of commodities, averaged 159.3 points last month, up 12.6% from February. As it is, the February index was the highest level since its inception in 1990.
OBSERVATION - The war has made a preexisting bad situation even worse.
(Reuters) - The macro-economic picture is deteriorating fast and could push the U.S. economy into recession as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy to tame surging inflation, BofA strategists warned in a weekly research note.
“’Inflation shock’ worsening, ‘rates shock’ just beginning, ‘recession shock’ coming”, BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note to clients, adding that in this context, cash, volatility, commodities and crypto currencies could outperform bonds and stocks.
OBSERVATION - Doesn’t this make you harken back to the days of “transitory” inflation. . . .
______________________________
Invasion of Illegals -
Border states taking more steps in anticipation of the tsunami of illegals expected in the coming month.
______________________________
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
Still laughing at how Musk is causing twitter - heads exploding.
__________________________________
POLITICAL FRONT -
Pelosi has tested positive for COVID-19, a day after appearing unmasked at a White House event with President Joe Biden. ...The 82-year-old Democratic leader’s announcement came ahead of her weekly press appearance on Capitol Hill. The House is set to start a two week spring recess.
_____________________________________
China -
See Wuhan above
____________________________________
North/South Korea -
According to U.S. officials to CNN, North Korea’s nuclear test site could be ready in days. The U.S. is worried that North Korea could conduct a nuclear test or another missile test next week, especially on or around their Day of the Sun holiday (April 15th).
__________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
Russia’s ambassador to the US warns that West’s actions may lead to a military confrontation between Moscow and Washington
We now have an idea who’s in-charge of the Ukraine operation. Reports are that military leadership in Ukraine has been assigned to Gen Alexander Dvornikov. Western officials say the general has extensive experience of Russian operations in Syria.
The Russian Foreign Ministry transfers its “denazification” rhetoric on Ukraine to Latvia:
“The ruling regime in Latvia has long been well known for its neo-Nazi preferences and attempts to whitewash the atrocities of Nazi Germany ‘s henchmen”
OBSERVATION - The Baltic countries have been warning about Russian aggression and this rhetoric from Russia just reinforces the concerns.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia mobilizing 60,000 reservists to join the war in Ukraine: U.S. senior defense official NOTE - Its going to take weeks / months before these reservists are equipped, organized and made combat ready
- Russian forces are increasingly refusing to reenter combat, and the Kremlin remains unlikely to quickly redeploy effective forces from northeastern Ukraine to operations in Donbas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that more than 80% of personnel in some unspecified Russian units previously involved in combat operations are refusing to return to the front. Russian commanders are reportedly refusing to release soldiers whose service contracts have expired, forcing them to stay with their units.
- Another one bites the dust. Colonel Alexander Bespalov, the commander of the 59th Guards Tank Regiment (part of the 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division), was killed in Ukraine.
- Now rough estimates of Russia KIA stands at 19,000. Rough estimate of wounded would be about 57,000
Economic Impacts -
- S&P cuts Russia’s foreign currency rating to ‘selective default’
- Biden has signed into law the Suspending Normal Trade Relations with Russia and Belarus Act
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 16th with a lot of rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
‘Overwhelming’ number of Russian air strikes in past 24 hours are in Mariupol and other areas of eastern Ukraine . Intensive artillery, missile and bombing in the Dombas continues to intensify.
Ukraine keeps defeating attacks in the Dombas region while Russia struggles to redeploy combat effective forces from the North. New overall Russian CG named and will have his hands full trying to coordinate the effort.
Ukraine forces still advancing on Kherson and may potentially attempt to cross the Dniper River north of the town.
Kyiv front -
North of Kyiv, Ukraine continues doing de-mining operations, senior U.S. defense official says.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Continued clearing of any mines
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Continued clearing of mines
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces remain concentrated on taking Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk Oblast and concentrated on Marinka in Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces are establishing minefields around Kharkiv in expectation of Ukrainian counterattacks.
Russian forces continued attacks south of Izyum toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove on April 8 but did not take any new territory.
Heavy artillery and bombing of the Khariv area continue. Russian forces continue to shell cities in eastern and southern Ukraine, and strike targets elsewhere with missiles.
Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances .
Airstrikes in recent days are being concentrated heavily south of the Ukrainian town of Izyum and into the Joint Force Operations (JFO) area.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders. Russian forces have reportedly made it to the southern part of the port area. Other reports of Russian forces said to be just blocks away from Mariupol station. Remaining Ukrainian positions along the eastern bank of the Kal’mius are in trouble, too. However, it appears that Ukrainian forces retain control of defensive positions in eastern and southwestern Mariupol, despite Russian claims to have captured most of the city.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful operations to seize Popasna and Rubizhne and continued shelling along the entire line of contact in the past 24 hours.
Extensive artillery fire continues all along the LOC into the Donetsk region
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian counterattacks have likely taken further territory west of Kherson, threatening Russian control of the city. Russian forces in the southern direction remain on the defense and continue to lose ground.
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near or long term.
Western Ukraine -
More missile attacks across the region, but no signification targets mentioned, likely to maintain a degree of OPSEC.
OUTLOOK -
Continued Russian buildup in the East/Southeast Ukraine in anticipation of an offensive to seize the rest of the Dombas region. Russian difficulties in getting the redeployed units ready for combat may be the cause for the current delay, but analysts note that full operations are imminent. Russian attacks of recent may be probing attacks seeking ways to get the large contingent of forces through Ukrainan defenses.. A road bound assault will face a meat grinder as the failed attacks in the north have.
Russian air activity is expected to increase in Ukraine’s south and east, the UK’s Ministry of Defence says in its latest defense intelligence update.
Mariupol will continue to doggedly hold out - but unknown for how much longer. As with the rest of the Ukrainian defense, these units have over performed expectations, lasting weeks longer than they were believed they could.
Moscow’s forces are continuing to hit Ukrainian non-combatants, like those killed in Friday’s rocket strike on Kramatorsk railway station, it says.
___________________________________
Belarus -
There are Unconfirmed reports that Multiple Eastern European/Asian Countries have begun to request their Citizens leave Belarus Immediately, these include Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, some have also started preparing Evacuation Flights from Belarus beginning today.
OBSERVATION - Observers are not certain as to the reason for the sudden action by these countries. One RUMIT thought is that Russia may be considering forcibly conscripting these individuals into the war effort.
______________________________________
Europe / NATO General -
U.S. sending a Patriot missile system, manned by American troops, to Slovakia, after they provided Ukraine with an S-300 air defense system. The Pentagon Press Secretary affirmed that those sent to Slovakia are on “temporary” assignment.
US will deploy one Patriot missile system to Slovakia, US Defense Secretary Austin says
Appears like in exchange of Slovakia sending its S-300 to Ukraine
Finland bans overland freight transport with Russian, Belarusian license plates. The measure came into effect on April 9 according to the sanctions imposed by the European Union.
____________________________________
Israel -
IDF to ramp up northern West Bank activity as PA said to be losing control of Jenin. Yesterday, ther were armed clashes during Israeli military patrols storming Jenin refugee camp .
OBSERVATION - Concerns of continued ‘lone wolf’ terror attacks based from the Jenin camp. If so, then Israeli responses will become stronger and stronger.
____________________________________
Iran -
The Biden administration will not remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the US terror list even though it may be a dealbreaker for Tehran signing a revived nuclear deal, an unnamed US official has told The Washington Post.
__________________________________