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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; ...

Wuhan virus -

See China lockdown
_____________________________

Economy -

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects U.S. food prices to increase by at least another 5% on average this year.
OBSERVATION - You can bet the USDA is lowballing these numbers.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said this week that he doesn’t “see high inflation going away quickly.” Harker also said that the American public should expect to pay high food and gas prices for some time.

US jet-fuel inventories have fallen to a seventeen-year low. More troubling is that jet-fuel inventories for the US East Coast have fallen to a 25-year low. Tight fuel supplies ahead of a traditionally busy travel season may suggest ticket prices could jump.
OBSERVATION - This may become a worse repeat of last spring/early summer where some airports had to cancel commercial flights because of demand compounded by early forest fire season.

Federal Reserve officials agreed to shrink the central bank’s balance sheet by a maximum of $95 billion each month, minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee revealed on Wednesday.
Fed officials in March hiked the target for overnight lending and the interest paid on reserves by a quarter of a percentage point, to a range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent. The minutes released Wednesday revealed previously undisclosed details about the Fed’s plans to shrink its enormous stockpile of bond holdings.
OBSERVATION - Continued aggressive plans by the Fed. Economic concerns that they may be pressing too hard, too fast, which could trigger a deep recession or depression.

Deutsche Bank warned this week of an “outright recession” in 2023. Deutsche is the first major bank to predict recession, and their latest expectation is that after hiking rates through 2022, the Fed will be forced to cut rates in the first half of 2023.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Democratic and six Republican senators will introduce a new bill on Thursday that would prevent the Biden administration from lifting Title 42 without a detailed plan in place to stop an expected surge of migrants at the border.

The White House admitted Wednesday that it is giving smartphones to illegal immigrants who cross the southern border in order to track them while they’re in the United States and make sure they attend their immigration hearings.
OBSERVATION - New play on 0bama phones for illegals.
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Biden / Harris watch -

Increasing scuttlebutt that recent gaffs by biden, along with imploding democrat support for the upcoming midterms, may accelerate efforts to put him out to pasture sooner now rather than later. Probably most noticeable when 0bama spoke at the 12th anniversary of 0bama care. Such an event on a none major time break (ie, normally such would be on the 10th, 20th etc anniversary) and how the assembled mob swarmed on 0bama and excluded biden just adds fuel to the fire.
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China -

China’s Foreign Ministry warned overnight that they’d take strong measures if U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) continues with her planned trip to Taiwan this weekend. The Foreign Ministry said Pelosi should cancel her trip immediately, as they’ll be forced to “take resolute and forceful measures to firmly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the US must be fully responsible for all the consequences.”(FO)

Some residents under lockdown in Shanghai say they are running out of food, amid the city’s biggest-ever Covid outbreak.
Residents are confined to their homes, banned from leaving for even essential reasons such as grocery shopping.
Nearly 20,000 cases were reported on Thursday in China’s biggest city - another near-record high.
But public anger is also being stoked by other drastic measures - such as the removal of children from their parents if they test positive. Shanghai officials later responded by allowing parents who were also infected to accompany their children to isolation centers.
OBSERVATION - The city has been on lock down for nearly three weeks now.

China’s “breathtaking expansion” of its strategic and nuclear arsenal is a quickly escalating risk for the U.S., the head of U.S. Strategic Command plans to tell lawmakers at a closed-door hearing on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - China may be taking notes of Russia’s blackmail of the west in Ukraine via nuclear threats. Unlike Putin, China may feel less restrained to use nukes in any operation to capture Taiwan.
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North/South Korea -

US officials believe that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test next week, this comes after their ICBM test on 23 March, the first since 2017.
OBSERVATION - The last test was believed to be a thermonuclear (H bomb) level. Some Geologists suggest that the tests have damaged the intergrity of the rock at the test site and further tests could result in a significant release of nuclear products and even a potential breakout of a nuclear fireball. Work appears to be rushed and that could further result in a signifiant release and even failure of a hillside.
This test, i believe, could be a an actual warhead for its Hwsong series ICBMs. The would be a logical next step.

North Korea could be preparing to restart land trade with Russia on their shared border. Satellite imagery from recent weeks shows resumed work to upgrade a freight station, suggesting a resumption may be on the horizon.
OBSERVATION - NK needs more reliable sources of food primarily and Russia could be helpful there. However, Russia may demand cold hard cash, something NK is short of.

SK President Yoon vows to strengthen deterrence against North Korea’s nuclear, missile threats. This could indicate the start of an arms race on the peninsula.
OBSERVATION - Yoon promised in his campaign to take a harder stand against NK provocations.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

UNGA will vote today on the removal of Russia from participation in the Human Rights Council.
Washington: We have enough votes to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council.

Russia is losing the latest PR battle due to the execution of civilians in towns north of Kyiv. They have tried to counter, but their arguments as clearly false on the face.

Putin is gambling that the attack to capture the Dombas region will give him a ‘victory’ that will permit him to save some face and stop the war on his terms at least. So far Russian forces are still under performing in the renewed assaults.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 16th with a lot of rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

According to US officials, “Russian forces are be preparing for a larger offensive in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the coming days, but are unlikely to generate the combat power necessary to break through Ukrainian defenses in continuing frontal assaults.”
So far this observation appears o be playing out as Russian attacks in the Dombas region appear to be rejected by Ukraine forces (see details under respective fronts). Reports continue that units pulled out of the north are being funneled to the Khariv front.

Intensive artillery, missile and bombing in the Dombas continues to intensify. Evidence now that Russia are now loading large, dumb bombs on their strategic bombers rather than just use them as cruse missile launch platforms. This could place them at risk from Ukraine ADA as well as increase indiscriminate deaths of civilians.

US estimates that over 60% of Russian forces that invaded Ukraine remain inside the country, some units have pulled back to Belarus. This number is a little meaningless in that it doesn’t break the 40% number down by KIA, WIA, MIA for personnel for instance. Tracking indicates at a minimum 30% of Russian tanks have been destroyed along with thousands of APV. Estimated KIAs of 15K from a couple weeks ago is 10% of the preiavasion forces and is likely higher now (haven’t seen any more recent estimates). The with this in mind, just how tore up are these 40% forces?

Belgorod continues to emerge as the primary concentration area for Russian forces regrouping and refitting after their retreat from Kyiv and in preparation for movement to their home stations or to join fighting in the east. However, there is no evidence of movement back to home stations.

The following map that I found does a pretty good job putting this phase of the battle into context.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPqT4a3XEAI1eVW?format=jpg&name=large

Ukrainian authorities say nearly 5,000 people were evacuated from combat areas in the south or eastern part of the country.

Kyiv front -
North of Kyiv, Ukraine is doing de-mining operations, senior U.S. defense official says.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Continued clearing of any Russian pockets and mines
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Continued clearing of any Russian pockets and mines

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Elements of Russia’s 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army continued offensive operations from Izyum towards Slovyansk but did not make any major territorial gains in the past 24 hours. This axis of attack is critical to the encirclement the eastern Dombas region.

Heavy artillery and bombing of the Khariv area again overnight. Kharkiv alone was hit 50 times last night
Russian forces continue to shell cities in eastern and southern Ukraine, and strike targets elsewhere with missiles.

Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances . Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled Russian attack at Kreminna and pushed them 6-10kms from the town.

Airstrikes in recent days are being concentrated heavily south of the Ukrainian town of Izyum and into the Joint Force Operations (JFO) area.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

News about Mariupol is lacking. Ukrainan forces still hold the center of the town.
The mayor of Mariupol said on Wednesday that 50 people were burned alive in the city during Russia’s assault on it, and 5,000 were killed over the last month.
Ukrainian troops are apparently still able to operate armor in the very outskirts of Mariupol. Not only do they still have working BTR-4s despite a nearly month-long siege, but they still operate in large parts of the suburbs. The following link is to a map that shows the current tactical situation based on the available data. (impressive video out there of a BTR taking out two Russian tanks with its 30mm cannon in an ambush from rear)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPvwmGcagAQp5-7?format=jpg&name=medium

Russian forces continued unsuccessful operations to seize Popasna and Rubizhne and continued shelling along the entire line of contact in the past 24 hours.

Ten high-rise buildings are on fire in the eastern Ukrainian town of Sievierodonetsk after Russian forces shelled the town on Wednesday, the governor of the eastern Luhansk region said in an online post. He said that there was no information yet on any casualties. Sievierodonetsk is the temporary headquarters of the regional authorities as Luhansk city has been controlled by Russia-backed separatists since 2014.

Extensive artillery fire continues all along the LOC into the Donetsk region
Russian army attempted to break through the defenses near Novotoshkivske, but failed

Again, see map link above for better understanding of the actions and where they are happening.

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian forces continued successful counterattacks towards Kherson from both Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih. The Russian push to Kryvyi Rih a couple of weeks ago may have already been cut off by recent Ukraine actions, but I have no data. I suspect that Russia is / has pulled them back to Kherson and across the Dnieper River to reinforce defenses there.
Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated Osokorivka in Kherson region, according to Ukrainan military officials. Ukraine’s counter-offensive contiunes to advance towards Khersonshchyna.

No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near or long term.

Western Ukraine -
Russia has hit targets in the Vinnytsia region of central Ukraine, and Radekhiv in the west. Explosions heard in Lviv region in west Ukraine, according to local officials.

OUTLOOK -
Russian assault to seize the Dombas region will continue ramp up. Already, intense artillery and bombing followed up by ground assault are being conducted, perhaps the best combined arms effort by Russia to date. Could be the result of a better unified Russian command.
The most aggressive assaults are coming from the Izyum-Slovyansk axises south of Khariv. Expect Russian forces redeployed from the north to be positioned here. However, I don’t expect these repositioned forces to make much difference for at least another week.
Expect continued Russian missile attacks on Dombas and Western Ukraine targets.

Defenders of Mariupol continue to hold to parts of the city, thwarting Russian efforts to conquer it. Evidence that Ukraine can still maneuver and strike Russian forces suggest that the defenders have a greater reserve and supplies than initially estimated.
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Europe / NATO General -

Finland will clarify next steps regarding a possible decision to seek NATO membership in the coming weeks, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told reporters after attending a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Thursday.
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Israel -

Bennett says security forces recently foiled more than 15 terrorist attacks.

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Iran -

Democrats are expressing alarm at a renewed nuclear deal with Iran, the Daily Mail reports.
On Wednesday, a group of 18 House Democrats warned that the Biden administration’s weak negotiating position meant there were no guarantees that the Islamic republic would not eventually develop nuclear weapons. According to the Mail, the group also said that lifting economic sanctions would allow money to flow to the state’s terrorist proxies.
OBSERVATION - Like I’ve been pointing out, Iran is getting everything they want due to the ineptitude and weakness of the biden administration. They only respect strength.

Iran has reportedly moved all its machines that make centrifuge parts from its mothballed workshop at Karaj to its sprawling Natanz site just six weeks after it set up another site at Isfahan to make the same parts, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Wednesday.
OBSERVATION - Iran getting ready for unfettered processing of uranium. Relocating them to a more secure, bunkered facility to minimize damage from any potential Israeli airstrikes

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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

A trilateral meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the President of the European Council, has begun in Brussels. This may represent the start peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to in order to address tensions over the long-disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which borders both nations, according to the office of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
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Misc of Note -

It has been confirmed that the entire island of PuertoRico was without power due to an “critical fault” overnight. There are reports of an issue with a power plant, and fires at two substations. This morning, LUMA Energy is reporting partial restoration with currently reported 347k out.

OBSERVATION - PR’s power grid has historically been jerry rigged due to corrupt and inept operation of the power system. Rebuild efforts after the hurricane a few years ago exposed deep corruption. Reconstruction under Trump’s administration put the major back bone of the system back, but apparently the system has returned to its inept, corrupt operating standards.
One thing of note are the two fires at substations - cause unknown and could have contributed to the dominos falling. At this time, no evidence of terror related causes.
Could be some time before things are straightened out.

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230 posted on 04/07/2022 8:35:16 AM PDT by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 229 | View Replies ]


To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; ...

If you haven’t figured this out yet, the world is becoming less stable at an increasing rate. This summary tries to snapshot the stability (or lack thereof) on a subjective basis (mine). We are an interconnected world, and what happens in parts of the world has ripples that affect us.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.

Obama spoke Wednesday at an event sponsored by The Atlantic and the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics, “Disinformation and the Erosion of Democracy.” He called for government control over the Internet in order to stem the “demand for crazy” that was spreading what he called “disinformation.”

OBSERVATION - Claims of ‘disinformation” or ‘misinformation’ is all over out there being used as a basis to control discussions. GGR needs tight control of the narrative to maintain control of the sheeple. This was brought fully into the picture from the wuhan dumpster fire where the govt claimed individuals passed ‘misinformation ‘ and those people lost their jobs.
________________________________

Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.

Democrats facing a ‘super spreader’ event fallout from recent democrat events. Pelosi may have exposed biden to the wuhan before diagnosed herself.

An Israeli study found that a fourth dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine doesn’t offer long-lived protection against the Omicron variant of the CCP virus.
Using Ministry of Health data on more than 1.2 million people, researchers found that a second booster dose of the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine offered protection against significant COVID-19 infections for six weeks. But protection against all virus infections started to drop quickly after four weeks and nearly disappeared after eight weeks, according to the study, which was published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Several weeks ago, Israeli researchers found in a separate preprint study that the protection from a second Pfizer booster quickly diminished.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.

Jim Bullard, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, during a presentation Thursday at the University of Missouri-Columbia said inflation is “a mess that we haven’t seen in 40 years,” and the Fed’s benchmark interest rate needs to increase to 3.5% from the current 0.5%.

OBSERVATION - increasing rates too high, too fast could backfire and crash the economy into a depression. Many economists pessimistic about the Fed’s ability to land the interest plane without crashing it.

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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s removal of Title 42 measures guarantees an uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month. States of AZ and TX may take stronger measures by declaring an invasion and deploying forces to the border.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

Increasing rumors that the swamp is viewing biden as a detriment in spite of their ability to control him and may be looking to put him out to pasture sooner rather than later. Their problem is what to do with airhead Harris.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa maintaining lowered presence outside of base areas (Portland, Seattle etc). There are continued events like first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022)

US actively delivering war supplies to Poland for shipment into Ukraine. US forces are deployed to the region as well as maintaining presence in the Western Pacific to deter China.
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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW

Continued warnings of Russian cyber attacks against US power and financial networks.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward

Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan has been canceled due to her coming down with wuhan.
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)

Nuclear test watch over the next week. Hurried preparations continue to be observed at the test site.

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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT -Russia has pivoted its focus to Eastern Ukraine and capture of the Dombas region. Russian troops pulled from northern Ukraine are reportedly being refurbished and transferred to Eastern Ukraine to support the attack.
Russia facing a propaganda nightmare due to the massacre of civilians north of Kyiv as well as indiscriminate bombing of residential areas.

*********
The U.N. General Assembly voted Thursday to suspend Russia from the world organization’s leading human rights body over allegations of horrific rights violations by Russian soldiers in Ukraine, which the United States and Ukraine have called tantamount to war crimes.

Hackers who operate on behalf of the cyber collective Anonymous claim that they’ve gained access to the Kremlin’s CCTV system. They warned Putin: “We won’t stop until we reveal all of your secrets. You won’t be able to stop us.”

Personnel Issues -
- In a shocking admission, Russian officials acknowledge heavy personnel losses.
- Unconfirmed reports that Russian military has begun recruiting conscripts who have been discharged from military service since 2012 and is summoning them for a special three-month training period before deployment to active units
- Reports that Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine are currently residing in tent camps and face declining morale.

Equipment Issues -
- Russia continuing to suffer from heavy equipment losses. Documented losses have skyrocketed as Ukraine forces consolidate the north.

Economic Hits -
- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has announced new sanctions on Russia, including a coal ban, slamming Moscow for violations of international law in Ukraine
- US Senate has voted to end normal trade ties with Russia over their invasion of Ukraine

____________________________________

Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine has entered its second month.

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 15th show warm with increasing rain/showers. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russia continued missile and bombing attacks across the nation, focused mostly on the Dombas region. Ukranians are departing the region to avoid being caught up in the fighting. Ukrainian forces “are absolutely adapting and adjusting in real time to Russian efforts now to increase their activities there” in eastern Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says. Russia has continued to gain the initiative in the east but are repulsed by Ukraine forces.
Intelligence assessments on the fight for Dombas indicate that Russian forces will likely attempt to regroup and redeploy units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine to support an offensive, but these units are unlikely to enable a Russian breakthrough.

More and more evidence of war crime atrocities in the north continue to be revealed. The scale of atrocities in Melitopol may well be orders of magnitude greater.

Kyiv front -
Indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are conducting “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place. It is unlikely that these forces have signifiant combat capability and unlikely to launch any attacks.

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, Foreign Affairs rep of the European Union Josep Borrell, and Prime Minister of Slovakia Eduard Heger visited Bucha.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Consolidation and clean up of Russian mines ongoing.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Consolidation and clean up of Russian mines ongoing.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian and Ukraine forces still are clashing in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Russian forces along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis did not make any territorial gains in the last 24 hours.

Russian forces continued to shell civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and its outskirts and seek to fix Ukrainian forces in place. More intense artillery and bombing in the eastern Ukraine LOC around Izyum and Slovyansk.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. It is unclear how much longer the Ukrainian defenders can hold out.
Russian proxy forces claimed to have captured central Mariupol on April 7, but Ukrainian forces still dispute the area and apparently have better control of suburb areas.

Russian troops seized evacuation buses with humanitarian aid to Melitopol’ according to the head of regional administration.

Separatist/Russian forces made little to no gains in the sector to join forces trying to come down out of the north from Izyum-Slovyansk

Overnight Russian forces launched at least two Tochka-U rocket from separatist held area and hit the rail road station in Kramatorsk, killing at least 50 and wounding hundreds of civilians who were gathered there to evacuate out of the region ahead of the impending Russian assault.
Kremlin affiliated media first proudly reported the Kramatorsk massacre, claiming their missile hit an ammunition train that arrived yesterday evening. After the appearance of civilian casualties, they started blaming Ukraine.

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian advances in Kherson Oblast have slowed as Russian forces continued efforts to improve their defensive positions in Kherson.

Russian amphibious operations against the Odessa region are off the table for now.

Western Ukraine -
Missile attacks in the region were reported but no significant targets reported were hit. Silence on this point may be OPSEC to deny Russia BDA.

OUTLOOK -

Continued build up of Russian forces in the east as those that were battered in the north are refitted, reconsolidated and moved there. Russia is betting it all on the capture of the Dombas region and is devoting the bulk of its resources to the fight. Some of this may also be driven by a theatre commander running the show rather than each CAA doing their own thing. The assessment that the redeployed Russian forces will not be adequate to sway the battle in this area and that Ukraine is showing great flexibility in getting reinforcements and equipment there quicker than the Russians are able to. Old saying - who ever gets there the firstist with the mostest wins.

More civilian deaths are being discovered. Combination of deliberate assassination by Russian troops along with deliberate targeting of residential areas and civilian shelters killing even more. This is resulting in Russia becoming increasingly isolated diplomatically as well as economically.

Ukraine still holds out in Mariupol, and their dogged determination is amazing, how much longer they can hold out is uncertain.
____________________________________

Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.

Belarus facing increasing sanctions due to their support of the Russian invasion.
________________________________________

Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

________________________________________

Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Russian threats against these countries are less vocal/open. Russia may be very wary of hitting any of these nations (particularly Poland) conventionally due to Article 5 and the sorry state of its military forces in and around Ukraine.

Spanish Foreign Minister: The attack on the Kramatorsk station is a flagrant violation of international law aimed at punishing civilians

Finland making preparations to apply for NATO membership as early as this summer.

Greece will ask the International Criminal Court to investigate war crimes in Mariupol. There is a substantial Greek population in the town.

Eighteen countries (Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Greece, Portugal, Estonia, Latvia, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, North Macedonia, Luxembourg, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, and Denmark) have now expelled a total of 318 Russian diplomats.
Japan joins Western nations in expelling Russian diplomats, kicking out eight, Foreign Ministry says
Montenegro announced the expulsion of 4 Russian diplomats

Slovakia gives S-300 air defense systems to Ukraine
____________________________________

Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.

Two Israeli civilians killed in shooting attack in Tel Aviv. The terrorist who carried out the deadly attack was identified as 28-year-old Jenin resident Ra’ad Hazem. He was killed in a pre-dawn firefight near a closed Jaffa mosque where he was hiding out hours after the killing spree. Hazem wa from the Shin Bet. He had no apparent terror group affiliation. No prior arrests. Illegally in Israel at the time of attack. No terror group has claimed credit for the attack either, though several praised it.
Bennett ordered northern West Bank crossings closed ‘until further notice’.

OBSERVATION - Israel is close to dropping the hammer on Palestinians in the West Bank, but are trying to hold off because of Ramadan and such would be adding fuel to the fire.
____________________________________

Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*

Iran continues to have its way in talks over a new nuclear agreement.
_________________________________

Armenia/Azerbaijan - BLUE ( updated 03/25/22)

Both countries are meeting to try to work out recent issues

____________________________________


231 posted on 04/08/2022 7:59:25 AM PDT by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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