Replies

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Four organizations focused on global health and the economy say it will take $15 billion in grants this year, and another $10 billion annually after that to establish and maintain an adequate toolkit to respond to COVID-19 and address future pandemic threats.
The estimate is laid out in “A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-term Risks of COVID-19,” a working paper published on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund, in partnership with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), the Global Fund, and Wellcome Trust.
In the paper, the four global groups assert that ending the pandemic everywhere remains an urgent economic, health, and moral priority for the world.
OBSERVATION - Wuhan is still trying to be used by some of the GGR to leverage increased goat control of the population.
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Wuhan virus -

The Food and Drug Administration bypassed its own experts in approving a fourth dose of vaccine for Americans 50 years and older last week, despite many of its vaccine experts being skeptical about the need for another booster shot and unsure about its safety.
The evidence suggests that the risk of side effects would cause almost anyone — immunocompromised or not — to hesitate. In fact, the data gathered to date is insufficient for anyone who might need a fourth booster to make an informed decision.
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Economy -

The combination of increasing mortgage rates and rising home prices are delating the housing market. This has resulted in a drop in mortgage business that is causing layoffs at companies like Movement Mortgage and Better.com. Mortgage companies had been on massive hiring sprees in the first year of the Covid pandemic, as interest rates set more than a dozen record lows and both refinance and purchase demand surged.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Mayorkas is directing that economic migrants get every opportunity to stay once the Title 42 barrier is removed. Mayorkjas’ intentions are described in his February strategy, which was leaked to Breitbart Texas on April 4. The February strategy is titled “DHS Southwest Border Mass Irregular Migration Contingency Plan,” and it says on page 16:

“A. Secretary’s Intent.
1 ) Purpose:
The purpose of this plan is to describe a proactive approach that humanely prevents and responds to surges in irregular migration across the U.S. [southern border]. This will be done while ensuring that migrants can apply for any form of relief or protection [emphasis added] for which they may be eligible, including asylum, withholding of removal, and protection from removal under the regulations implementing United States obligations under the Convention Against Torture.”

To maximize benefits for migrants, Mayorkas minimizes the detention and deportation of migrants — even though federal law generally denies the entry of foreign workers and economic migrants into Americans’ homeland.

OBSERVATION - Its clear that the border policy is deliberately setting up to essentially eliminate the border and any checks on those who cross it.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden was cast aside like a piece of rubbish as people swarmed 0bama at yesterday’s 12 year commendation of 0bamacare.
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China -

The U.S. government has approved a sale of up to $95 million worth of training and equipment to support Taiwan’s Patriot Air Defense System, the Pentagon announced Tuesday. “The proposed sale will help to sustain the recipient’s (Taiwan’s) missile density and ensure readiness for air operations,” the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a statement.
The Defense Department added that Taiwan will use the proposed training and equipment as a “deterrent to regional threats and to strengthen homeland defense.”
OBSERVATION - China will not be happy about this.

China has continued flying aircraft into the Taiwan’s warning zone, though not on the top of the headlines due to Ukraine, and at lower numbers.

Recession watch - The latest data from China shows a slowing manufacturing sector as the NBS purchasing manager index slips back into contraction, or negative growth.

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Japan -

Japan is seeking a capability to strike enemy bases to let potential adversaries know they’d “pay a price” for attacking Japan, according to the country’s defense minister. The Japanese government, in closed-door hearings the past few months, has heard from security experts about possibly acquiring the means to conduct counterstrikes, Kyodo News reported Monday.

There’s a consensus among Japanese defense experts that their country needs a strike capability, according to Tetsuo Kotani, a senior research fellow at The Japan Institute of International Affairs.

Some of the Japanese rationale for seeking the new capability is concern about America’s reliability as an ally. “Japan has finally woken up to the fact that they are pretty much defenseless (against Chinese missiles),” retired U.S. Marine Col. Grant Newsham, a senior researcher with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies in Tokyo told Stars and Stripes by phone Tuesday.

OBSERVATION - Japan’s military is tied down by the post WW2 constitution and rules which historically been cited to limit the capabilities of the country to strictly defensive measures. Increasing threats by both China and N Korea is forcing a relook at these laws and they are finding ways around them.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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UNGA will vote Thursday on the removal of Russia from participation in the Human Rights Council.

Logistics -
- There are about 450 documented Russian tank losses (destroyed/captured) alone would be equal to 45 BTGs (other units also had tanks, APCs such as the militia units from Donestk/Luhansk or airborne forces—but we can basically say the undocumented losses would more than cover what they would have lost). They started out with about 120 BTGs, that represented the most combat ready units in the Russian Army, about a 1/3 loss of combat power in tanks alone. Russian replacement stockpiles are in poor shape - just like their personnel conditions.
- Overall, conservative count indicates Russia has had, visually confirmed, to have lost at least 2500 vehicles and pieces of equipment since it began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia does not plan to rotate troops who committed atrocities in Bucha out of Ukraine according to Ukrainian intelligence. Russia’s 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade of 35th CAA was withdrawn to Belarus & will be moved to Russia for 2 days rest before likely returning to combat in Kharkiv.

Economic Impacts -
- The American company, “Intel”, the manufacturer of electronic chips, is suspending its activities in Russia.
- More economic sanctions coming up in response to civilian massacres.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 11th with a lot of rain in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

In his address to the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated that Russia had committed war crimes and said the U.N. must hold Russia leaders accountable to show other potential war criminals “how they will be punished if the biggest one is punished.”

Thousands of people are fleeing Ukraine’s Donbas as Russia shifts the focus of its attacks to the east of the country. Ukrainian authorities are calling on people to evacuate the eastern Luhansk region, with five humanitarian corridors out of the area planned today

Incredible, fluid situation !!!!!!

It appears that Russia has kicked off its assault to capture the Dombas region. The following map I found does a pretty good job putting this phase of the battle into context.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPqT4a3XEAI1eVW?format=jpg&name=large

Widespread Russian cruse missile attacks, many of which have reportedly been intercepted by Ukrainan ADA. Increasing numbers of Russian forces continue to redeploy to the southeastern corner of the country. Targets appear to be petroleum and other industrial facilities.

Russian activity in the Transnistria region of Moldova is gaining greater scrutiny. Some unconfirmed reports that Russia airfields there are preparing for a lot of traffic. Transnistria could be used as a jump off point for Russian forces assaulting the Odesa region to support an amphibious operation. This is important given that forces from Crimea were soundly stopped by Ukraine resistance to attack Odesa from the east.

Kyiv front -
The evidence of heinous acts committed in the towns around the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv gets more horrific by the day.
On Tuesday, Associated Press journalists saw six burned and blackened corpses piled together just off a residential street near a playground, the latest gruesome scene to emerge from Bucha as world leaders push for Russia to be held accountable.
One charred body had arms raised in supplication, the face contorted in a scream. The skull of another had a bullet hole in the left temple. A child’s small, blackened foot could be seen in the tangle of bodies.
More than 400 people are missing from the town of Hostomel, a local official says. The town bore the brunt of Russian advances on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, along with Bucha and Irpin

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces have withdrawn and Ukrainan forces conducting clean up operations.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Russian forces have withdrawn and Ukrainan forces conducting clean up operations.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Heavy artillery and bombing of the Khariv area again overnight. Russian forces continue to shell cities in eastern and southern Ukraine, and strike targets elsewhere with missiles. Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, saw intense shelling overnight.

Reports of Russian forces with close air support, trying to storm Barvenkove and Slovians.
According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russia targeted Ukrainian army positions and civilian infrastructure in Borivske, Novoluhanske, Solodke, Marinka and Zolota Nyva — in the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
News about Mariupol is lacking. Ukrainan forces still hold the center of the town.
Russian troops allowed 1,496 civilians to evacuate the besieged city of Mariupol by private vehicle but blocked the entry of a convoy of evacuation buses accompanied by Red Cross workers, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.

Extensive artillery fire continues all along the LOC into the Donetsk region supporting limited assaults on Novotoshkivske, Nyzhne, Popasna, Kalynove, Stepne, Rubizhne, Troitske, Novobakhmutivka, and Novoselivka Druha, but were unsuccessful. Explosions were also reported in Dnipro and Odesa according to reports. A petroleum facility in Dnepropetrovsk was reportedly near the city of Dnipro.

Again, see map link above for better understanding of the actions and where they are happening.

Crimea Front -

Ukrianian Armed Forces report they are pressing the offensive towards Kherson city and Oleksanarvka. Heavy battles reportedly are being fought for the city. Ukrainian forces also are pressing south from the direction of Kryvi Rih towards Kherson.

RUMINT - Some reports that Russian forces beginning to withdraw across the to the east bank of the Dnieper River and set up new defensive positions there to better protect the left flank of the Crimean front. This could force Ukraine to launch a major river crossing operation that would make it very vulnerable to heavy losses.

No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near or long term.

Western Ukraine -
Russia has hit targets in the Vinnytsia region of central Ukraine, and Radekhiv in the west. Explosions heard in Lviv region in west Ukraine, according to local officials.

Explosions also being reported in northwestern cities of Lutsk and Rivne, believed due to a large missile attack by Russian Forces.

However, the race is on - how quickly can Russia refit and reorganize unit pulled out of the fight in the north and get them in the fight for Dombas before Ukraine can shift forces south and get additional equipment for NATO via Poland. The next few days will be critical in eastern Ukraine.

Russia will continue to be hammered by the documentation of horrendous war crimes against Ukrainan civilians as more of the North is cleared out of Russian forces and relief moves in. I don’t know if Russia will receive any meaningful rebuke/sanctions by the UN, but momentum is in the favor of Ukraine.

Defenders of Mariupol continue to hold to parts of the city, thwarting Russian efforts to conquer it. However, it appears that Russia is more than happy to turn the city into rubble. Civilian deaths will be sky high - more of a war crime. they cold hold out for days or weeks - just don’t have better data.

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Europe / NATO General -

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg says alliance determined to supply more weapons to Ukraine, adding they will do more for partners such as Georgia and Bosnia “vulnerable for Russian threats and interference”

The Czech Republic has been sending old Soviet-era tanks into Ukraine, providing badly needed heavy weapons to outgunned Ukrainian troops that are battling a much better-equipped Russian invasion force.
The efforts, described by three Czech and Slovak officials, mark the first time a foreign country has provided tanks to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began Feb. 24. In a potentially even more important development, both the Czech Republic and neighboring Slovakia, which shares a border with Ukraine, are considering opening their military industrial installations to repair and refit damaged Ukrainian military equipment.

Portugal to expel 10 Russian diplomats.
Norway to expel three Russian diplomats
EU has now ordered 19 Russian diplomats to leave Belgium.
The Greek authorities declared 12 members of the Diplomatic and Consular Missions of the Russian Federation, which are accredited in Greece, as personae non gratae
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Israel -

Israeli foreign minister Lapid accuses Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine: “The images and testimony from Ukraine are horrific. Russian forces committed war crimes against a defenseless civilian population. I strongly condemn these war crimes”

OBSERVATION - Israel has been walking a fine line because they have been working with the Russians to avoid inadvertently hitting any troops when thy strike Hezebollah targets. Part of this is keeping Russian ADA assets out of play. This effort has become strained by the war and may be on the verge of the loss of cooperation.

MK Idit Silman announces her resignation from the coalition, leaving them without a majority. With this, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s government loses its majority in Knesset, leaving it neck-and-neck with the opposition at 60-60. If an additional person were to leave the coalition, the government could be brought down in a law brought by the Opposition that would disperse the Knesset. Silman said that she “could not take it anymore,” and that she could not continue undermining the Jewish identity of the State of Israel, a reference to a disagreement she had with Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz over allowing chametz into hospitals over Passover.

OBSERVATION - Besides a concern over Passover practices, this could put Israel back into a cycle of parliamentary elections that could put the country in a dangerous position when facing increasing aggression by Iran and Hezbollah.
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Central / South America General-

Peru’s president declared a state of emergency in the capital Lima as violent protests over inflation led to clashes with police, blocked highways and food shortages.
OBSERVATION - Food shortages and skyrocketing inflation are key ingredients for social instability and as this crisis worsens globally these kinds of protests will grow and expand.
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Black Swans -
Unseasonably cold weather hit parts of Europe over the past weekend, following warmer-than-normal temperatures in previous weeks that caused rapid greening of flora. Damage to agriculture is widespread but it seems it’s not as bad as it was last year when a similar cold episode happened. The worst affected countries were France, Germany, Spain and Austria.

OBSERVATION - More stress on the global food supply chain.

Wuhan virus -

See China lockdown
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Economy -

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects U.S. food prices to increase by at least another 5% on average this year.
OBSERVATION - You can bet the USDA is lowballing these numbers.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said this week that he doesn’t “see high inflation going away quickly.” Harker also said that the American public should expect to pay high food and gas prices for some time.

US jet-fuel inventories have fallen to a seventeen-year low. More troubling is that jet-fuel inventories for the US East Coast have fallen to a 25-year low. Tight fuel supplies ahead of a traditionally busy travel season may suggest ticket prices could jump.
OBSERVATION - This may become a worse repeat of last spring/early summer where some airports had to cancel commercial flights because of demand compounded by early forest fire season.

Federal Reserve officials agreed to shrink the central bank’s balance sheet by a maximum of $95 billion each month, minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee revealed on Wednesday.
Fed officials in March hiked the target for overnight lending and the interest paid on reserves by a quarter of a percentage point, to a range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent. The minutes released Wednesday revealed previously undisclosed details about the Fed’s plans to shrink its enormous stockpile of bond holdings.
OBSERVATION - Continued aggressive plans by the Fed. Economic concerns that they may be pressing too hard, too fast, which could trigger a deep recession or depression.

Deutsche Bank warned this week of an “outright recession” in 2023. Deutsche is the first major bank to predict recession, and their latest expectation is that after hiking rates through 2022, the Fed will be forced to cut rates in the first half of 2023.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Democratic and six Republican senators will introduce a new bill on Thursday that would prevent the Biden administration from lifting Title 42 without a detailed plan in place to stop an expected surge of migrants at the border.

The White House admitted Wednesday that it is giving smartphones to illegal immigrants who cross the southern border in order to track them while they’re in the United States and make sure they attend their immigration hearings.
OBSERVATION - New play on 0bama phones for illegals.
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Biden / Harris watch -

Increasing scuttlebutt that recent gaffs by biden, along with imploding democrat support for the upcoming midterms, may accelerate efforts to put him out to pasture sooner now rather than later. Probably most noticeable when 0bama spoke at the 12th anniversary of 0bama care. Such an event on a none major time break (ie, normally such would be on the 10th, 20th etc anniversary) and how the assembled mob swarmed on 0bama and excluded biden just adds fuel to the fire.
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China -

China’s Foreign Ministry warned overnight that they’d take strong measures if U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) continues with her planned trip to Taiwan this weekend. The Foreign Ministry said Pelosi should cancel her trip immediately, as they’ll be forced to “take resolute and forceful measures to firmly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the US must be fully responsible for all the consequences.”(FO)

Some residents under lockdown in Shanghai say they are running out of food, amid the city’s biggest-ever Covid outbreak.
Residents are confined to their homes, banned from leaving for even essential reasons such as grocery shopping.
Nearly 20,000 cases were reported on Thursday in China’s biggest city - another near-record high.
But public anger is also being stoked by other drastic measures - such as the removal of children from their parents if they test positive. Shanghai officials later responded by allowing parents who were also infected to accompany their children to isolation centers.
OBSERVATION - The city has been on lock down for nearly three weeks now.

China’s “breathtaking expansion” of its strategic and nuclear arsenal is a quickly escalating risk for the U.S., the head of U.S. Strategic Command plans to tell lawmakers at a closed-door hearing on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - China may be taking notes of Russia’s blackmail of the west in Ukraine via nuclear threats. Unlike Putin, China may feel less restrained to use nukes in any operation to capture Taiwan.
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North/South Korea -

US officials believe that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test next week, this comes after their ICBM test on 23 March, the first since 2017.
OBSERVATION - The last test was believed to be a thermonuclear (H bomb) level. Some Geologists suggest that the tests have damaged the intergrity of the rock at the test site and further tests could result in a significant release of nuclear products and even a potential breakout of a nuclear fireball. Work appears to be rushed and that could further result in a signifiant release and even failure of a hillside.
This test, i believe, could be a an actual warhead for its Hwsong series ICBMs. The would be a logical next step.

North Korea could be preparing to restart land trade with Russia on their shared border. Satellite imagery from recent weeks shows resumed work to upgrade a freight station, suggesting a resumption may be on the horizon.
OBSERVATION - NK needs more reliable sources of food primarily and Russia could be helpful there. However, Russia may demand cold hard cash, something NK is short of.

SK President Yoon vows to strengthen deterrence against North Korea’s nuclear, missile threats. This could indicate the start of an arms race on the peninsula.
OBSERVATION - Yoon promised in his campaign to take a harder stand against NK provocations.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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UNGA will vote today on the removal of Russia from participation in the Human Rights Council.
Washington: We have enough votes to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council.

Russia is losing the latest PR battle due to the execution of civilians in towns north of Kyiv. They have tried to counter, but their arguments as clearly false on the face.

Putin is gambling that the attack to capture the Dombas region will give him a ‘victory’ that will permit him to save some face and stop the war on his terms at least. So far Russian forces are still under performing in the renewed assaults.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 16th with a lot of rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

According to US officials, “Russian forces are be preparing for a larger offensive in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the coming days, but are unlikely to generate the combat power necessary to break through Ukrainian defenses in continuing frontal assaults.”
So far this observation appears o be playing out as Russian attacks in the Dombas region appear to be rejected by Ukraine forces (see details under respective fronts). Reports continue that units pulled out of the north are being funneled to the Khariv front.

Intensive artillery, missile and bombing in the Dombas continues to intensify. Evidence now that Russia are now loading large, dumb bombs on their strategic bombers rather than just use them as cruse missile launch platforms. This could place them at risk from Ukraine ADA as well as increase indiscriminate deaths of civilians.

US estimates that over 60% of Russian forces that invaded Ukraine remain inside the country, some units have pulled back to Belarus. This number is a little meaningless in that it doesn’t break the 40% number down by KIA, WIA, MIA for personnel for instance. Tracking indicates at a minimum 30% of Russian tanks have been destroyed along with thousands of APV. Estimated KIAs of 15K from a couple weeks ago is 10% of the preiavasion forces and is likely higher now (haven’t seen any more recent estimates). The with this in mind, just how tore up are these 40% forces?

Belgorod continues to emerge as the primary concentration area for Russian forces regrouping and refitting after their retreat from Kyiv and in preparation for movement to their home stations or to join fighting in the east. However, there is no evidence of movement back to home stations.

The following map that I found does a pretty good job putting this phase of the battle into context.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPqT4a3XEAI1eVW?format=jpg&name=large

Ukrainian authorities say nearly 5,000 people were evacuated from combat areas in the south or eastern part of the country.

Kyiv front -
North of Kyiv, Ukraine is doing de-mining operations, senior U.S. defense official says.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Continued clearing of any Russian pockets and mines
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Continued clearing of any Russian pockets and mines

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Elements of Russia’s 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army continued offensive operations from Izyum towards Slovyansk but did not make any major territorial gains in the past 24 hours. This axis of attack is critical to the encirclement the eastern Dombas region.

Heavy artillery and bombing of the Khariv area again overnight. Kharkiv alone was hit 50 times last night
Russian forces continue to shell cities in eastern and southern Ukraine, and strike targets elsewhere with missiles.

Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances . Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled Russian attack at Kreminna and pushed them 6-10kms from the town.

Airstrikes in recent days are being concentrated heavily south of the Ukrainian town of Izyum and into the Joint Force Operations (JFO) area.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

News about Mariupol is lacking. Ukrainan forces still hold the center of the town.
The mayor of Mariupol said on Wednesday that 50 people were burned alive in the city during Russia’s assault on it, and 5,000 were killed over the last month.
Ukrainian troops are apparently still able to operate armor in the very outskirts of Mariupol. Not only do they still have working BTR-4s despite a nearly month-long siege, but they still operate in large parts of the suburbs. The following link is to a map that shows the current tactical situation based on the available data. (impressive video out there of a BTR taking out two Russian tanks with its 30mm cannon in an ambush from rear)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPvwmGcagAQp5-7?format=jpg&name=medium

Russian forces continued unsuccessful operations to seize Popasna and Rubizhne and continued shelling along the entire line of contact in the past 24 hours.

Ten high-rise buildings are on fire in the eastern Ukrainian town of Sievierodonetsk after Russian forces shelled the town on Wednesday, the governor of the eastern Luhansk region said in an online post. He said that there was no information yet on any casualties. Sievierodonetsk is the temporary headquarters of the regional authorities as Luhansk city has been controlled by Russia-backed separatists since 2014.

Extensive artillery fire continues all along the LOC into the Donetsk region
Russian army attempted to break through the defenses near Novotoshkivske, but failed

Again, see map link above for better understanding of the actions and where they are happening.

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian forces continued successful counterattacks towards Kherson from both Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih. The Russian push to Kryvyi Rih a couple of weeks ago may have already been cut off by recent Ukraine actions, but I have no data. I suspect that Russia is / has pulled them back to Kherson and across the Dnieper River to reinforce defenses there.
Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated Osokorivka in Kherson region, according to Ukrainan military officials. Ukraine’s counter-offensive contiunes to advance towards Khersonshchyna.

No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near or long term.

Western Ukraine -
Russia has hit targets in the Vinnytsia region of central Ukraine, and Radekhiv in the west. Explosions heard in Lviv region in west Ukraine, according to local officials.

OUTLOOK -
Russian assault to seize the Dombas region will continue ramp up. Already, intense artillery and bombing followed up by ground assault are being conducted, perhaps the best combined arms effort by Russia to date. Could be the result of a better unified Russian command.
The most aggressive assaults are coming from the Izyum-Slovyansk axises south of Khariv. Expect Russian forces redeployed from the north to be positioned here. However, I don’t expect these repositioned forces to make much difference for at least another week.
Expect continued Russian missile attacks on Dombas and Western Ukraine targets.

Defenders of Mariupol continue to hold to parts of the city, thwarting Russian efforts to conquer it. Evidence that Ukraine can still maneuver and strike Russian forces suggest that the defenders have a greater reserve and supplies than initially estimated.
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Europe / NATO General -

Finland will clarify next steps regarding a possible decision to seek NATO membership in the coming weeks, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told reporters after attending a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Thursday.
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Israel -

Bennett says security forces recently foiled more than 15 terrorist attacks.

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Iran -

Democrats are expressing alarm at a renewed nuclear deal with Iran, the Daily Mail reports.
On Wednesday, a group of 18 House Democrats warned that the Biden administration’s weak negotiating position meant there were no guarantees that the Islamic republic would not eventually develop nuclear weapons. According to the Mail, the group also said that lifting economic sanctions would allow money to flow to the state’s terrorist proxies.
OBSERVATION - Like I’ve been pointing out, Iran is getting everything they want due to the ineptitude and weakness of the biden administration. They only respect strength.

Iran has reportedly moved all its machines that make centrifuge parts from its mothballed workshop at Karaj to its sprawling Natanz site just six weeks after it set up another site at Isfahan to make the same parts, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Wednesday.
OBSERVATION - Iran getting ready for unfettered processing of uranium. Relocating them to a more secure, bunkered facility to minimize damage from any potential Israeli airstrikes

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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

A trilateral meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the President of the European Council, has begun in Brussels. This may represent the start peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to in order to address tensions over the long-disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which borders both nations, according to the office of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
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Misc of Note -

It has been confirmed that the entire island of PuertoRico was without power due to an “critical fault” overnight. There are reports of an issue with a power plant, and fires at two substations. This morning, LUMA Energy is reporting partial restoration with currently reported 347k out.

OBSERVATION - PR’s power grid has historically been jerry rigged due to corrupt and inept operation of the power system. Rebuild efforts after the hurricane a few years ago exposed deep corruption. Reconstruction under Trump’s administration put the major back bone of the system back, but apparently the system has returned to its inept, corrupt operating standards.
One thing of note are the two fires at substations - cause unknown and could have contributed to the dominos falling. At this time, no evidence of terror related causes.
Could be some time before things are straightened out.

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