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Globalism / Great Reset -
A paper by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is expected to say that dangerous climate change will be avoided only if vast quantities of carbon dioxide are removed from the air, the Times of London reported.
“Carbon dioxide removal is necessary to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions globally and nationally,” a draft version of the summary report said, according to The Times. If “negative emission” technologies fulfill their potential, it continues, they could even enable a reversal of global warming.
However, carbon-capturing technology is nowhere near where it needs to be. Today, 19 operational plants capture only 10,000 tons of carbon dioxide a year, compared to the 36 billion tons the world produces annually, according to the report.
The paper also says that an urgent and wholesale shift away from fossil fuels is needed for there to be any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Scientists believe topping that threshold will lead to significant and irreversible harm to Earth’s climate.
OBSERVATION - More global warming leverage for the GGR
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Wuhan virus -
Sweden lifted All COVID Travel Restrictions on April 1.
Denmark lifted last of COVID entry restrictions on March 29th.
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Economy -
California drought: Sierra snowpack falls to one of lowest April 1 levels in 70 years January-March was driest such three-month period in San Francisco since records began during Gold Rush
OBSERVATION - Kalifornia is a bread basket for the US and world. Loss of production will increase the cost of groceries everywhere. But the drought covers more than Kalifornia and with it harvests will be diminished. This on top of fertilizer shortages and skyrocketing fuel costs.
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Invasion of Illegals -
According to various reports, the Biden administration is reportedly considering diverting doctors from the Department of Veterans Affairs in order to treat illegal aliens who are expected to flood the southern border this spring and summer.
The insulting slight to American veterans was first reported by Fox Business’s Hillary Vaughn, who cited a source with U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Harris blessed us with two minutes of word salad yesterday .
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CW2/Domestic violence -
A bill to require parents or guardians with a student in public or charter school to annually disclose if they have firearms at home has been proposed in Kalifornia. The bill on the proposed requirement failed its first committee vote Wednesday after facing opposition from the American Civil Liberties Union and National Rifle Association, two groups that rarely agree on anything related to guns.
OBSERVATION - Backdoor gun registration. Remember, under 0bama a similar attempt was tried using the medical community.
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North/South Korea -
North Korea to ‘reconsider’ their relations with South Korea after South Korean defense minister Suh Wook stated that South Korea had the capability to “accurately and swiftly strike any targets in North Korea”.
North Korea’s Pak Jong Chon and Kim Yo Jong warns South Korean defense minister: You’re “crazy” and a “fool” to mention preemptive strike against a country that possesses nuclear weapons
In response to increasing provocations being conducted by North Korea, South Korea has strengthened their combined defense posture and increased the readiness of their reconnaissance assets according to sources to Yonhap.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting. More details under Ukraine.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Reports of Explosions in BELGOROD - Russia. No details as I write.
According to US officials to CNN, Russia wants to take control of Donbas & other regions in Eastern Ukraine by early May. Putin is focused on May 9th due to it being known as Russia’s Victory Day.
“The US also assesses Putin is now preparing, for the first time, to name an overall commander of the war to achieve greater Russian successes, two US officials said.”
OBSERVATION - This would be a theatre commander who’s job would be to herd the cats under him. To date, the CAA generals were operating semi-independently, competing for resources and poorly coordinating actions between them. Placing a general over them could resolve many of these issues, and that is a big could.
By placing a May 9th deadline, Russia could be painting itself into another corner if tactical operations go as poorly as the previous phase. Many units are combat ineffective and those that are still relatively intact have huge holes cut into them. Elite, high trained units Russia relied on early in the war are the hardest hit and those trained soldiers at this stage are irreplaceable as too the losses of senior officers.
RUMINT -
Discussion that Putin may be suffering from thyroid cancer. Also, the May 9th deadline to achieve new military goals may be just speculation.
Logistics -
- Russia has brought in some intact BTGs from other military districts, but these are of lower quality than those originally deployed.
- It is still expected that to refit battered units that have been withdrawn from Ukraine could take weeks, and with poor quality equipment.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- A local group of Cossacks are being organized collaborate with Russian occupiers in Melitopol to “maintain law & order.”
Economic Impacts -
- The number of European countries disconnecting from Russian gas completely is growing.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 11th with a lot of rain in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Incredible, fluid situation. The fog of war and time shifted reporting over the past couple of days made me concerned that the withdraw and local rout of Russian troops may have been overstated. It is clear that much of it wasn’t overstated or propaganda. Kyiv is no longer threatened by a ground assault.
First the good news - Ukraine said Saturday it has regained control of the Kyiv region. Russian forces have completely withdrawn to Belarus from the Northwest quadrant of Kyiv. The fleeing Russian soldiers left tons of destroyed, damages and abandoned vehicles in their rush leave.
Now the bad news - Intensity of combat has increased in the southeastern corner of the country with largely a stalemate developing. This is in spite of intense Russian bombing and artillery support to ground troops. Russian precision attacks have also moved to east central Ukraine areas as well as Odessa, now targeting oil / fuel related facilities.
The ugly - Ukrainan forces entering cities abandoned by Russian forces have discovered evidence and proof of extensive civilian killings, rapes of women and children (younger than 10 yrs old) and looting. In Bucha, mayor, Anatoly Fedoruk, told @AFP by phone that they “have already buried 280 people in mass graves,” since the Ukrainian army retook control of the key town outside Kyiv
Numerous videos have been posted showing the heavily destroyed town’s streets littered with corpses not buried.
Reports are also coming in, mostly confirmed at this time, of this atrocity being repeated in every occupied village north northwest of Kyiv. Many victims were handcuffed and shot in the head, in groups or house to house, pushed into mass graves, piled up and burnt, or left in the street. The bodies of around 20 civilians have also been found all over the Zhytomyr highway. Some pundits are equating the murders to the zachistki, or ‘cleansing operations’, in Chechnya in 1999-2000+.
Looting was also extensive. A 3 hour CCTV recording from a courier service in Mazyr, Belarus was posted on the internet showing Russian servicemen sended almost endless numbers packages with what they stole back home.
With the mass civilian executions in this region, concerns are even higher for Mariupol potentially an order of magnitude larger.
Sadly, I seriously doubt that no one from russia will be held accountable for these war crimes.
With the change in the operational situation, I’m going to be modifying the different fronts to account better for this next stage of the war. I’ll keep the Kyiv Front active to cover war crimes. The Northern Front stays active though much of the Russian forces have pulled out of country, there is still a Russian defensive presence and continued attacks off Chernihv.
The biggest change will be to split Khariv off from the northeastern front. Ukrainian forces have cleared Russian troops out of the country to the border between Khariv and Sumy. So the sector from the vicinity of Khariv southeastward to the southeast corner of Ukraijne will now be the eastern front. This realignment also takes the northern portion of the Dombass sector and places it in the eastern front. This is largely due to the emphasis to cut off Dombas region.
Eastern Dombas will be renamed Southeasterrn Dombas.
Crimea and Western Ukraine Fronts will be otherwise unchanged except as noted above
I’ve lined two maps that try to depict the ground that has changed hands over the past week. They aren’t perfect, but give a pretty good overview of what’s been happening minus propaganda (as much as possible)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPXWQ1OXEAYuyXS?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPWaZFQaQAc2z6D?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Situation continues to be VERY fluid.
This front is now officially cleared of major Russian forces. Suspect that there may be pockets of Russian troops that were left behind that need to be ferreted out, but for now there is not more threat on this front.
As noted above, the big story playing out is the massive murder of civilians and the numerous booby traps Russian forces left behind. Incredible numbers of armor and other vehicles destroyed, damaged and abandoned.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces did not conduct any major operations along the Chernihiv and Sumy axis in the past 24 hours. Ukraine forces continue to recapture cities and towns around Chernihiv, expanding the freed zone around it.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Russian forces still falling back under pressure from Ukrainan elements. The Konotop and Sumy Russian road bound ‘pincers’ are essentially non existent any more. Gaps in Russia occupation are also beginning to develop between Konotop, Sumy and Khariv.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Heavy artillery and bombing of the Khariv area overnight. Russian forces have been observed entering the Oblast overnight as well.
Fierce fighting continues south of Khariv, as it appears that Russian forces are attempting to by pass the city to reinforce the push from Izyum or create its own axis to the south west.
Russian forces are attempting to push south- southwestward from Izyum. Combat appears to be see-sawing between forces resulting in little to no gains by Russian troops.
The apparent objective of the Russian assault in this sector is to punch southwest from Khariv and Izyum towards Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, trapping a large number of Ukraine forces on the east where Russian attacks from the southeastern most half of this front, combined with the northern half of the Dombas front can eliminate the pocket of Ukrainian forces this moved would create.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half. Continued heavy bombing and artillery of Ukrainan controlled areas.
My estimation a week ago that it probably had less than a week is apparently too pessimistic but absent significant help and reinforcement I can’t see it holding out much longer.
With the exception of Mariupol, this front remains relatively static, with no apparent success in pushing towards elements trying to push south out to
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian forces continue to push Russians south from Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia.
Heavy rocket/bombing attacks on Mykolaiv.
Oil storage depots in Odesa were hit by Russian cruise missile strikes and are on fire.
It appears that Russian forces in this region are operating in a defensive posture / economy of force and not venturing out offensive to try to link up with forces coming from. Khariv and Izyum
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.
Western Ukraine -
No significant missile strikes overnight.
OUTLOOK -
Continued Ukrainian offensive operations combined with Russian pull outs in the Northern and Northeastern fronts is expected. Russia is incapable of seizing Kyiv in the long term.
Continued intense fighting in Southeast Ukraine if Russia is seeking to meet a May 9th deadline to wrap up operations . Key question is how quickly and completely Russia can refit BTGs mauled in northern Ukraine and bring them into the battle.
Continued missile and bombing of Odessa and central/western Ukraine targets, focusing on fuel storage, maintenance and munitions storage.
One thing to watch is if a Theatre commander is designated and how successful he will be untangling the logistical and operational mess that the Russian army finds itself in. CAA commanders are used to operating independently and may chafe at a higher command level. Time frame is also important. Comms between units and Moscow have been poor and a whole new network has to be established for this theatre command to all CAA elements. If the new commander cannot efficiently and clearly communicate to subordinate elements, then operations may continue to be messed up. Finally, this general needs to pull together a functional staff that can translate his view of this new phase into orders that the subordinate commands can understand. The Russian army isn’t used to this.. I noted prior to the start of the war Russia hasn’t maneuvered a force of this size since WW2 and is not prepared for it. We will see just how far up the learning curve the Russian high command has gotten soon.
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Belarus -
Observers noting a lot of Russian military convoys passing through areas, but no further evidence that it will be joining the fight any time soon.
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Poland -
Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslav Kaczynski expresses openness to deploying U.S. nuclear weapons on Polish soil
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Europe / NATO General -
European Council President: Shocked by haunting images of atrocities committed by Russian army in Kyiv liberated region. EU is assisting Ukraine and NGO’s in gathering of necessary evidence for pursuit in international courts. Further EU sanctions & support are on their way.
British Defense Ministry: We are collecting evidence to support an ICC investigation into war crimes in Ukraine
Germany reportedly wants to purchase Israeli or U.S. missile defense systems to counter the threat from Russian Iskanders in Kaliningrad
The Baltic states have announces they halt gas imports from Russia.
The European Union will impose new sanctions on Russia, the exact nature of them have not been specified.
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Israel -
Tensions still high as Ramadan inspired violence continues.
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Wuhan virus -
Doom is back. DOOOOOOM
The more contagious omicron subvariant BA.2 has become the dominant COVID-19 strain in the U.S., but international health experts are putting an increased focus on a new hybrid variant that may even be more infectious.
The XE variant is a recombinant, meaning it is comprised of genetic material from two other strains, which in this case are BA.1, the original strain of omicron, and BA.2, known as “stealth omicron.”
According to an epidemiological update published March 29 by the World Health Organization, estimates show XE is 10% more transmissible than BA.2, however the findings require further confirmation.
OBSERVATION - May be more infectious, but no expectation of increased death or hospitalization.
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Economy -
According to the German Retail Association (HDE), consumers should prepare for another wave of price hikes for everyday goods and groceries with Reuters reporting that prices at German retail chains will explode between 20 and 50%!
In February, Germany’s cost of living rose at the highest level since reunification, with everyday goods increasing by an average of 7.3%. The federal statistics agency Destatis said the jump from January’s figure of 5.1 percent to February’s 7.3 percent reflected the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has sent the price of oil and gas soaring.
According to Joachim Rukwied, president of the farming association, the food supply in Germany is assured for at least another year – though after this the forecasts are less certain. With rumors of shortages swirling around, however, supermarket owners have been complaining of the sort of panic-buying not seen since the first months of pandemic.
OBSERVATION - There is concern from some quarters that similar is coming for the US. Some would argue that it is already here.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Moochle 0bama - the former ‘vice president’ of the US.
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Japan -
Japan’s PM says the country will consult with allies regarding new sanctions on Russia
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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US is pushing to remove Russia from the UN Human Rights Council
Russia hasn’t announced a theatre commander for the war effort, though Putin is expected to designate one.
Russia redeploying helicopter assets. Observers noted today at 12:05, a group of 14 Russian helicopters took off from the airfield in Machulishchy. At 12:50, 14 more Russian helicopters, incl. Ka-52 and Mi-8, took off from the airfield. Reportedly flying towards Russia, and the movement infers that they will no longer be in play in northern Ukraine
Russian state-owned propaganda outlet RIA published the new programmatic article with the title “What Russia must do with Ukraine”. The article reveals a detailed plan for a genocide, starting from full elimination of Ukrainian state.
OBSERVATION - Doesn’t help their PR when juxtaposed against Russian denials of the atrocities in northern Ukraine.
Logistics -
- With complete pullouts from nearly all of northern Ukraine, equipment replacements may take some time.
- Tip of the iceberg as far as Russia losses. Just tanks alone - Tanks (416, of which destroyed: 197, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 171) H/t oryx, only documented losses, likely higher.
Economic Impacts -
- Russian gas giant Gazprom has officially halted all deliveries to Europe via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, a critical artery for European energy supplies.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 11th with a lot of rain in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
RUMINT -
Russian frigate “Admiral Essen” reportedly was hit by Ukrainian Neptune cruise missile. I’ve found no confirmation yet.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Incredible, fluid situation !!!!!!
Russian forces have pulled out of northern part of the Country, remaining Russian Forces are reportedly scattered around the Sumy Region but are slowly being pushed back towards the Russian Border by Ukrainian Offensives. Apparently have completely pulled out of the Chernihv region. I wasn’t expecting a total pull out of these areas so quickly. The Russian forces throughout the Northern Ukraine have been chewed up pretty well, and any reconstitution should take weeks. However, the
tactical situation in East-Southeast Ukraine may force a quicker turn around.
The following map depicts the current situation on the ground. It isn’t perfect, but give a pretty good overview of what’s been happening minus propaganda (as much as possible)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPWaZFQaQAc2z6D?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Situation continues to be VERY fluid.
In Bucha, a Russian headquarters has been identified where civilians were interrogated and then shot. The worst was in the basement of the dacha. ‘We found 18 bodies in there,’ he said. ‘They had been torturing people. Some of them had their ears cut off. Others had teeth pulled out. There were kids like 14, 16 years old, some adults.’”
“410 bodies of killed civilians have been found in the territory of Kyiv region, for April 1-3, 140 of them have already been examined by prosecutors and other specialists,” Prosecutor General Irina Venediktova.
President Zelensky visited liberated Bucha to see the destruction and Russian atrocities
Russia on Sunday denied Ukrainian allegations that it had killed civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces in this front executed a poorly organized withdrawal over the past couple days.
“Ukraine’s Armed Forces and territorial defense battalions have pushed them away through Chernihiv Oblast,” Zhyvytsky said, warning that small groups of Russians might still be around.
See map link above
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
“The withdrawal of occupation troops continues in the Sumy Oblast. The enemy provides cover and logistical support for individual units assigned to the territory of the Russian Federation... Sumy Oblast Governor Dmytro Zhyvytsky reported on April 3 that Russian forces have been withdrawing from Sumy Oblast and taking their equipment with them. In parts of the Sumy region, control over state border has been fully restored by Ukraine.
Some reports indicate that the withdrawal was more organized than around Chernihv.
See map link above
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Heavy artillery and bombing of the Khariv area overnight. Russian forces reportedly organizing for an attack in the southern portion of the front.
Modification of the attack plans, based on Ukrainan assessments. The attacks will be directed south-southwest in the direction of Severodonetsk and Velyka Novosilka. This is not as far west as I presumed yesterday but makes better sense. A pronounced Ukrainan salient now exists in the Kramatorsk area and it makes sense to cut this off before trying to tackle the rest of the Dombas region.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
News about Mariupol is lacking. Ukrainan forces still hold the center of the town. Cant tell if Russians are pursuing the assault as vigorously as in the past weeks. This could represent the potential that Russia is satisfied in containing the Ukraine forces while shifting more intact units eastward to support the expected Donbas offensive.
Besieged Ukrainian city Mariupol ‘90 percent’ destroyed, around 130,000 remain trapped: mayor
Reports of Russian units assembling it the region in preparation for resumption of an offensive action.
Crimea Front -
The wreck of the Alligator class LST at the Port of Berdyansk has not moved, and no additional traffic seen since the attack. This has likely impaired resupply efforts in Southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces continue to push Russians south from Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia.
Heavy rocket/bombing attacks on Mykolaiv and Odessa.
It appears that Russian forces in this region are operating in a defensive posture .
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.
Western Ukraine -
Missile strikes as several locations in Central and Western Ukraine.
OUTLOOK -
Sudden Russian pullouts from Chernihv and Konotop/Sumy regions caught me off guard. That and the redeployment of Russian helicopter assets out of Belarus suggest that there is a degree of urgency to gather support for the impending Dombas offensive. This could indicate that the Russian forces are more desperate for men and equipment and recent import of units/equipment may be inadequate. Conventional wisdom would suggest that it should take weeks to reconstitute and reequip the pulled out units but I think other forces are at work.
Actions suggest there is some kind of unified command and that they are on a short time table. The rumored May 9th deadline could be a driver. This could force these recently pulled out units back into the fight largely as is, before they are prepared. Russia will be lacking the better trained VDV forces, having them get chewed up in the North and parts of Odessa fronts, to lead this new offensive. Russia will have to rely on the lower quality forces to drive this attack.
Ukrainian General Staff warns Russians are preparing the offensive in Donbas, “which may begin tomorrow”. They may be seeing indicators of action sooner than later. They were on top of the original invasion. Weather is on the side of Ukraine, with rain in the forecast for the next week, limiting Russian advances to roads.
Russian units in the Dombas region have been trying for the past 5 weeks to make progress and largely been stalled out after the first week of fighting. Combat capabilities of the Russian there are diminished without reinforcements, but capable at least to initiate the offensive provide follow on forces are ready.
The attack to seal off the Kramatorsk salient makes sense - eat the elephant one bite at a time - and give Russia at least one area where they could claim victory. However, Ukraine forces have fought exceptionally well in situations where they’ve been partially or mostly cut off and put Russian forces into a meat grinder for every foot of ground they gained. Ukraine also has the advantage of internal supply lines, permitting them quicker response to a Russian assault.
SUMMARY- A Russian assault into the Dombas is imminent but not a given victory I expect Russia to try another blitzkrieg style attack hoping to capture the Kramatorsk salient as quickly as possible and prevent Ukraine from catching them into another meat grinder. A unified command will help Russian action, but there appears to be a rush to get things started - push for too fast of action when not ready for that action could spell another disaster from Russia. Cessation of Russian action in the north gives Ukraine a chance to reinforce the Dombas region quicker than Russia can reposition forces. Finally the Russian atrocities in the north will steel the will and morale of Ukraine forces for the vicious battle to come.
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Europe / NATO General -
Poland’s Prime Minister says Germany is the main obstacle in the way of tougher sanctions on Russia
Poland proposes the creation of an international commission to investigate genocide in Ukraine
The Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki has called for an Emergency European Union Summit to discuss the Massacres perpetrated by the Russian Military in Ukraine, he has also reportedly proposed a Complete Sever in Trade Relations with the Russian Federation.
There are also unconfirmed reports that Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithonia have made the decision to completely Ccose their border crossings with both the Russian Federation and Belarus within the next 48-72 hours.
Germany to expel a “significant number” of Russian diplomats after making a decision this week:
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Israel -
Things quieter but still tense as Ramadan continues.
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Turkey -
Turkey’s annual inflation rate rises to 61% in March, the highest in two decades. This will further civil discontent towards the ruling regime.
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