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Wuhan virus -
Doom is back. DOOOOOOM
The more contagious omicron subvariant BA.2 has become the dominant COVID-19 strain in the U.S., but international health experts are putting an increased focus on a new hybrid variant that may even be more infectious.
The XE variant is a recombinant, meaning it is comprised of genetic material from two other strains, which in this case are BA.1, the original strain of omicron, and BA.2, known as “stealth omicron.”
According to an epidemiological update published March 29 by the World Health Organization, estimates show XE is 10% more transmissible than BA.2, however the findings require further confirmation.
OBSERVATION - May be more infectious, but no expectation of increased death or hospitalization.
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Economy -
According to the German Retail Association (HDE), consumers should prepare for another wave of price hikes for everyday goods and groceries with Reuters reporting that prices at German retail chains will explode between 20 and 50%!
In February, Germany’s cost of living rose at the highest level since reunification, with everyday goods increasing by an average of 7.3%. The federal statistics agency Destatis said the jump from January’s figure of 5.1 percent to February’s 7.3 percent reflected the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has sent the price of oil and gas soaring.
According to Joachim Rukwied, president of the farming association, the food supply in Germany is assured for at least another year – though after this the forecasts are less certain. With rumors of shortages swirling around, however, supermarket owners have been complaining of the sort of panic-buying not seen since the first months of pandemic.
OBSERVATION - There is concern from some quarters that similar is coming for the US. Some would argue that it is already here.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Moochle 0bama - the former ‘vice president’ of the US.
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Japan -
Japan’s PM says the country will consult with allies regarding new sanctions on Russia
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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US is pushing to remove Russia from the UN Human Rights Council
Russia hasn’t announced a theatre commander for the war effort, though Putin is expected to designate one.
Russia redeploying helicopter assets. Observers noted today at 12:05, a group of 14 Russian helicopters took off from the airfield in Machulishchy. At 12:50, 14 more Russian helicopters, incl. Ka-52 and Mi-8, took off from the airfield. Reportedly flying towards Russia, and the movement infers that they will no longer be in play in northern Ukraine
Russian state-owned propaganda outlet RIA published the new programmatic article with the title “What Russia must do with Ukraine”. The article reveals a detailed plan for a genocide, starting from full elimination of Ukrainian state.
OBSERVATION - Doesn’t help their PR when juxtaposed against Russian denials of the atrocities in northern Ukraine.
Logistics -
- With complete pullouts from nearly all of northern Ukraine, equipment replacements may take some time.
- Tip of the iceberg as far as Russia losses. Just tanks alone - Tanks (416, of which destroyed: 197, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 171) H/t oryx, only documented losses, likely higher.
Economic Impacts -
- Russian gas giant Gazprom has officially halted all deliveries to Europe via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, a critical artery for European energy supplies.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 11th with a lot of rain in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
RUMINT -
Russian frigate “Admiral Essen” reportedly was hit by Ukrainian Neptune cruise missile. I’ve found no confirmation yet.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Incredible, fluid situation !!!!!!
Russian forces have pulled out of northern part of the Country, remaining Russian Forces are reportedly scattered around the Sumy Region but are slowly being pushed back towards the Russian Border by Ukrainian Offensives. Apparently have completely pulled out of the Chernihv region. I wasn’t expecting a total pull out of these areas so quickly. The Russian forces throughout the Northern Ukraine have been chewed up pretty well, and any reconstitution should take weeks. However, the
tactical situation in East-Southeast Ukraine may force a quicker turn around.
The following map depicts the current situation on the ground. It isn’t perfect, but give a pretty good overview of what’s been happening minus propaganda (as much as possible)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPWaZFQaQAc2z6D?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Situation continues to be VERY fluid.
In Bucha, a Russian headquarters has been identified where civilians were interrogated and then shot. The worst was in the basement of the dacha. ‘We found 18 bodies in there,’ he said. ‘They had been torturing people. Some of them had their ears cut off. Others had teeth pulled out. There were kids like 14, 16 years old, some adults.’”
“410 bodies of killed civilians have been found in the territory of Kyiv region, for April 1-3, 140 of them have already been examined by prosecutors and other specialists,” Prosecutor General Irina Venediktova.
President Zelensky visited liberated Bucha to see the destruction and Russian atrocities
Russia on Sunday denied Ukrainian allegations that it had killed civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces in this front executed a poorly organized withdrawal over the past couple days.
“Ukraine’s Armed Forces and territorial defense battalions have pushed them away through Chernihiv Oblast,” Zhyvytsky said, warning that small groups of Russians might still be around.
See map link above
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
“The withdrawal of occupation troops continues in the Sumy Oblast. The enemy provides cover and logistical support for individual units assigned to the territory of the Russian Federation... Sumy Oblast Governor Dmytro Zhyvytsky reported on April 3 that Russian forces have been withdrawing from Sumy Oblast and taking their equipment with them. In parts of the Sumy region, control over state border has been fully restored by Ukraine.
Some reports indicate that the withdrawal was more organized than around Chernihv.
See map link above
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Heavy artillery and bombing of the Khariv area overnight. Russian forces reportedly organizing for an attack in the southern portion of the front.
Modification of the attack plans, based on Ukrainan assessments. The attacks will be directed south-southwest in the direction of Severodonetsk and Velyka Novosilka. This is not as far west as I presumed yesterday but makes better sense. A pronounced Ukrainan salient now exists in the Kramatorsk area and it makes sense to cut this off before trying to tackle the rest of the Dombas region.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
News about Mariupol is lacking. Ukrainan forces still hold the center of the town. Cant tell if Russians are pursuing the assault as vigorously as in the past weeks. This could represent the potential that Russia is satisfied in containing the Ukraine forces while shifting more intact units eastward to support the expected Donbas offensive.
Besieged Ukrainian city Mariupol ‘90 percent’ destroyed, around 130,000 remain trapped: mayor
Reports of Russian units assembling it the region in preparation for resumption of an offensive action.
Crimea Front -
The wreck of the Alligator class LST at the Port of Berdyansk has not moved, and no additional traffic seen since the attack. This has likely impaired resupply efforts in Southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces continue to push Russians south from Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia.
Heavy rocket/bombing attacks on Mykolaiv and Odessa.
It appears that Russian forces in this region are operating in a defensive posture .
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.
Western Ukraine -
Missile strikes as several locations in Central and Western Ukraine.
OUTLOOK -
Sudden Russian pullouts from Chernihv and Konotop/Sumy regions caught me off guard. That and the redeployment of Russian helicopter assets out of Belarus suggest that there is a degree of urgency to gather support for the impending Dombas offensive. This could indicate that the Russian forces are more desperate for men and equipment and recent import of units/equipment may be inadequate. Conventional wisdom would suggest that it should take weeks to reconstitute and reequip the pulled out units but I think other forces are at work.
Actions suggest there is some kind of unified command and that they are on a short time table. The rumored May 9th deadline could be a driver. This could force these recently pulled out units back into the fight largely as is, before they are prepared. Russia will be lacking the better trained VDV forces, having them get chewed up in the North and parts of Odessa fronts, to lead this new offensive. Russia will have to rely on the lower quality forces to drive this attack.
Ukrainian General Staff warns Russians are preparing the offensive in Donbas, “which may begin tomorrow”. They may be seeing indicators of action sooner than later. They were on top of the original invasion. Weather is on the side of Ukraine, with rain in the forecast for the next week, limiting Russian advances to roads.
Russian units in the Dombas region have been trying for the past 5 weeks to make progress and largely been stalled out after the first week of fighting. Combat capabilities of the Russian there are diminished without reinforcements, but capable at least to initiate the offensive provide follow on forces are ready.
The attack to seal off the Kramatorsk salient makes sense - eat the elephant one bite at a time - and give Russia at least one area where they could claim victory. However, Ukraine forces have fought exceptionally well in situations where they’ve been partially or mostly cut off and put Russian forces into a meat grinder for every foot of ground they gained. Ukraine also has the advantage of internal supply lines, permitting them quicker response to a Russian assault.
SUMMARY- A Russian assault into the Dombas is imminent but not a given victory I expect Russia to try another blitzkrieg style attack hoping to capture the Kramatorsk salient as quickly as possible and prevent Ukraine from catching them into another meat grinder. A unified command will help Russian action, but there appears to be a rush to get things started - push for too fast of action when not ready for that action could spell another disaster from Russia. Cessation of Russian action in the north gives Ukraine a chance to reinforce the Dombas region quicker than Russia can reposition forces. Finally the Russian atrocities in the north will steel the will and morale of Ukraine forces for the vicious battle to come.
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Europe / NATO General -
Poland’s Prime Minister says Germany is the main obstacle in the way of tougher sanctions on Russia
Poland proposes the creation of an international commission to investigate genocide in Ukraine
The Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki has called for an Emergency European Union Summit to discuss the Massacres perpetrated by the Russian Military in Ukraine, he has also reportedly proposed a Complete Sever in Trade Relations with the Russian Federation.
There are also unconfirmed reports that Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithonia have made the decision to completely Ccose their border crossings with both the Russian Federation and Belarus within the next 48-72 hours.
Germany to expel a “significant number” of Russian diplomats after making a decision this week:
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Israel -
Things quieter but still tense as Ramadan continues.
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Turkey -
Turkey’s annual inflation rate rises to 61% in March, the highest in two decades. This will further civil discontent towards the ruling regime.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
UN scientists have unveiled a plan that they believe can limit the root causes of dangerous climate change.
A key UN body says in a report that there must be “rapid, deep and immediate” cuts in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
Global emissions of CO2 would need to peak within three years to stave off the worst impacts.
Even then, the world would also need technology to suck CO2 from the skies by mid-century
OBSERVATION - Expect more global warming ‘justifications’ for a GGR desired emergency declarations and shutdowns based upon the wuhan shutdowns.
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Wuhan virus -
Branch covidians still trying to drum up fear over the latest variant, but it isn’t gaining traction.
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Economy -
In his annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns that the global economic picture may continue to worsen. Three points follow. First, he says the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war risks a sharp global economic downturn. Dimon notes that further sanctions against Russia are possible, adding that the situation “could easily worsen.” Dimon continues that the “confluence [of war, sanctions, and economic instability] may dramatically increase the risks ahead” and characterizes worsening conditions as “a potentially explosive situation.”(FO)
March 2022 Logistics Manager’s Index Reports the LMI at 76.2, the highest in the history of the index, up (+1.0) from February’s reading of 75.2. The first three months of 2022 have been marked by high levels of inventory, and insufficient capacity to deal with it. This trend started at the end of 2021 when inventories increased by 2.4% in December 2021 – an all-time month-to-month record.
OBSERVATION - Basically there isn’t enough truckers to get stuff to the market and that products are staking up in warehouses. This is also driving prices higher through a combined of Inventory, Warehousing, and Transportation Costs.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - This summer may be a hinge point for the country if inflation and shortages continue as they have. This will make the political climate even more intense in the lead up to the midterms.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Biden is looking to further slash deportations by having federal prosecutors drop cases against illegal aliens unless they are considered a “public safety threat,” a newly leaked internal memo reveals. The memo, reviewed by BuzzFeed News, directs prosecutors for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency to drop deportation cases against illegal aliens who are not considered a threat to national security or public safety or who have not recently crossed the United States-Mexico border.
Drugs cartels will control the U.S. border once the Biden administration lifts Title 42 at the end of May, warns Border Patrol union chief Brandon Judd. “They’re going to create gaps in our coverage and going to cross more of their drugs, their fentanyl — and more of our U.S. citizens are going to die simply because this administration doesn’t want to give the proper policies to protect U.S. citizens.”
Missouri, Arizona and Louisiana are suing the biden administration decision to stop Title 42 policies, saying the move would lead to a ‘crisis’ at the US-Mexico border.
OBSERVATION - I expect more states to join in the coming days.
OVERALL - The tsunami of illegals the cessation of Title 42 will create will be more than the MSM can cover up and may well trip a substantial crime wave as cartels take greater control of the border. Arizona and Texas have already made plans to increase NG presence on the border and this time they may be armed and dangerous, not in a supporting role. DC will oppose such a response, setting up another confrontation between border states and biden.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Harris’ deputy chief of staff Michael Fuchs has resigned. His departure adds to the increasing number of senior staffers jumping off her ship.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
Billionaire Elon Musk bought 9.2% of Twitter stocks, becoming the largest single shareholder. Reportedly he did so was the anti-free speech of the platform. Leftist heads immediately exploded.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Biden admitted that he’d like to see former President Donald Trump prosecuted for the Jan. 6 riots and that he’s disappointed Attorney General Merrick Garland has not taken tougher action . Push back from the GOP and the merging with the dumpster fire of Hunter biden investigation is creating even more attention on corruption in the biden administration.
0bama to give a speech on the 12th anniversary of the (un)affordable care act in an effort to divert public attention from biden’s woes to show that democrats have done positive things for the country. 0bama’s first visit to the WH since biden was elected.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
The National Fraternal Order of Police is reporting that as of this month, 101 officers have been shot in the line of duty. This marks a 46% year-to-date (YTD) increase from 2021 and a 63% YTD increase from 2020. The report notes a significant increase in ambush-style attacks.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The Army this week admitted it was having problems recruiting and announced an unprecedented reduction in its numbers that would shrink the active duty Army to its smallest size since World War II.
10 additional U.S. Marine F-18 fighter jets have arrived in Poland.
The Biden administration’s $813 billion budget for fiscal year 2023 projects 2.2% inflation for Defense-related costs, despite the likelihood of the country running high inflation indefinitely.
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North/South Korea -
Kim Yo-jong said it was a ‘very big mistake’ to threaten Pyongyang and declared the North’s nuclear forces were ready to respond.
OBSERVATION - The war of words between North and South have been escalating over the past week, reflecting in part a harder line by the South.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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US to ask for a UN General Assembly vote to remove Russia from the the UN Human Rights Council. Two thirds of 193 members of the UNGA would have to vote in favor of expelling Russia.
Logistics -
- Videos and photos of Russian armor pulled out of storage and arriving in theatre show evidence of poor storage conditions, which may also reflect on combat readiness.
Economic Impacts -
- According to the Central Bank of Russia, since the war began its foreign reserves dropped from USD643.2 billion on 18 Feb to USD604.4 billion on 25 Mar. The bank is spending on average USD7.76 billion a week to prop up the economy and meet international financial commitments
- The German Bundestag has just Announced that Gazprom Germania, a Subsidiary of the Russian Energy Giant Gazprom, has been Taken Under the Control of the German Government and effectively Nationalized to reportedly Secure Critical Energy Infrastructure across the Country.
- Europe’s development bank has suspended funds to Russia and Belarus due to the war.
- The Russian Embassy in Ireland is running out of fuel for heating and hot water and is complaining that numerous Irish oil companies have refused to deliver supplies.
- Russia’s latest sovereign bond coupon payments have been stopped, putting it closer to a historic default. The country has a 30-day grace period to make the payment.
- The EU proposes an import ban on Russian coal which will cut off 4 billion euros of annual trade.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 11th with a lot of rain in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Incredible, fluid situation !!!!!!
Zelenskyy scheduled to address the UN security council.
Widespread Russian cruse missile attacks, many of which have reportedly been intercepted by Ukrainan ADA. Increasing numbers of Russian forces building up in the southeastern corner of the country. It is suspected that many of these units were the better quality forces withdrawn from northern Ukraine. That withdrawal left the poorer quality forces in defensive positions as cover, then their disorganized withdrawal / near rout after those chosen units has pulled out.
The combat readiness/ capability of these redeployed units is still questionable, with unknown personnel and equipment losses.
The following map depicts the current situation on the ground. It isn’t perfect, but give a pretty good overview of what’s been happening minus propaganda (as much as possible)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPWaZFQaQAc2z6D?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Situation continues to be VERY fluid.
Satellite images refute Russia’s claim that the killing of civilians in Bucha, a suburb of Ukraine’s capital, occurred after its soldiers had left town, a New York Times analysis found.
The UN Human Rights Office says that civilians in Bucha were “directly targeted and directly killed”
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces have withdrawn and Ukrainan forces conducting clean up operations.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Russian forces have withdrawn and Ukrainan forces conducting clean up operations.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Heavy artillery and bombing of the Khariv area again overnight. Russian forces fired considerable artillery attacks all along the LOC, probably in preparation for the impending ground assault into the Dombas.
In Rubizhne an artillery projectile damaged a tank with nitric acid. Hazmat situation declared, and civilians warned to take cover and use personal protection equipment
Sources are noting that considerable numbers of Russian forces have entered the province in the past couple days. This is likely driving increased Russian attacks to try to regain the offense south of Khariv.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
News about Mariupol is lacking. Ukrainan forces still hold the center of the town.
Reports overnight of a 250 man element of Ukrainan marines surrendering in Mariupol. Not confirmed yet.
Red Cross says its team traveling to Mariupol was stopped, now being held - Reuters News. No information of when / if they have been released.
Russian army shelled a chemical plant in Donetsk region, no leak of dangerous chemicals
Extensive artillery fire all along the LOC into the Donetsk region supporting limited assaults on Novotoshkivske, Nyzhne, Popasna, Kalynove, Stepne, Rubizhne, Troitske, Novobakhmutivka, and Novoselivka Druha, but were unsuccessful. Likely precursors to the impending Russian Dombas offensive.
Crimea Front -
Small Russian attacks against Ukraine forces pressing in on Kherson.
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.
Western Ukraine -
Missile strikes as several locations in Central and Western Ukraine.
OUTLOOK -
Russia will kick off the Dombas invasion phase soon. However, does Russia have the capability to pull this off? Larger means more complexity in logistics as well as communication and coordination. So far Russia has been unable to do anything of this before. What is the morale status of the Russian forces? They have been put through a meat grinder, especially those from the north. Fresh troops may not be too willing to enter combat having been exposed to the results of the Ukrainan resistance. And on top of it is the quality of those soldiers is questionable.
Expect the Russian attack to begin in earnest within a week with probing attacks and abundant artillery and bombing until then. I expect the new offensive to be ushered in by the most intense artillery and bombing of the war to date to neutralize Ukrainan defenses and assist Russian forces to break out. To delay any further will permit an even stronger Ukrainan redeployment of assets and defensive preparations. Refit works both ways as western military supplies continue to come into Ukraine at a high tempo.
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Europe / NATO General -
Sweden has decided to expel three Russian diplomats who did not work in accordance with the Vienna Convention, says Foreign Minister Ann Linde
Italy expelled 30 Russian diplomats
Denmark expelled 15 Russian diplomats
Berlin expels 40 Russian diplomats.
The Lithuanian Government has officially announced that they are downgrading their diplomatic status with the Russian Federation, expelling the Russian Ambassador from the country and recalling their own Ambassador from Moscow, Lithuania is the first EU Country to do this.
France expels 35 Russian diplomats
OBSERVATION - Overall about 178 Russian Diplomats have been expelled within the last 20 hours.
EU ‘ready to send’ investigators to probe Ukraine war crimes: von der Leyen
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Israel -
Things quieter but still tense as Ramadan continues.
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Iran -
Iran will only return to Vienna to finalize an agreement to revive its landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said Monday
OBSERVATION - biden administration has lost all credibility in these negations. Iran is getting everything it wants and in doing so will destabilize the region even further.
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