Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

A week out from election day – midterms 2022 – and though I’m hopeful, I won’t accept polling until the real pole – the vote is tallied. Even then, with the multiple avenues of fraud the left is continuing to put on us there will be concerns. Will this be a fair election or another corrupted dumpster fire that keeps the Marxist left entrenched in congress.
I hate being pessimistic but then they say the a pessimist is only an optimist with experience.

Wuhan virus –

Following the pattern of President Biden and his coronavirus adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, “fully vaccinated” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky experienced a “rebound” of COVID-19 after completing a round of Pfizer’s antiviral treatment Paxlovid.
The CDC said Monday that Walensky tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month and eventually tested negative after taking Paxlovid, which is under emergency use authorization. On Sunday, however, she “began to develop mild symptoms and has again tested positive.”
When the rebound issue surfaced in the spring, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told Bloomberg that patients should take another course of the treatment, “like you do with antibiotics.” But the FDA’s infectious disease director, Dr. John Farley, reacted, saying there is “no evidence of benefit at this time for a longer course of treatment or repeating a treatment course of Paxlovid in patients with recurrent COVID-19 symptoms.”
Bourla, the Pfizer chief, also tested positive for COVID-19 after receiving four doses of his company’s vaccine. When the shots were rolled out, he promised they would be 100% effective in preventing infection.
In July, virology researchers at Austria’s Medical University of Innsbruck published an analysis of the Pfizer trial in which they found little difference in the number of hospitalizations or deaths between placebo and Paxlovid recipients.

OBSERVATION - Ka Ching! Follow the money, honey.

A potentially deadly new strain of COVID has been created in a University lab in London, according to a report.
The Daily Mail reports that researchers at Imperial College London have hybridised the original Wuhan strain of the disease with both the Omicron or Delta variants separately.
The College is yet to reveal how effective the strain they have created is, and has denied that the work constitutes gain of function, the process now widely believed to have been responsible for the original strain in Wuhan.
Molecular biology expert Dr. Richard Ebright warned that the new mutant strain, which was injected into hamsters in London, “is insanity, both in terms of the redundancy and waste,” and that it has zero “foreseeable practical applications.”

OBSERVATION – What the heck are they trying to do – play around and make a more lethal form of wuhan that could ‘leak’ to the general population. This is the second public incident, the first being Boston U’s experiments.

Economy –

Biden has threatened to seek a new windfall tax on major oil and gas companies unless they invest their record profits in lowering household costs and ramping up production.
A windfall tax is a one-off tax imposed by a government on a company. The idea is to target firms lucky enough to benefit from something they were not responsible for.
Biden said if oil companies did not lower prices at the pump, his administration would work with Congress to require them to pay higher taxes on their excess profits and face other restrictions.
“If they don’t, they’re going to pay a higher tax on their excess profits and face other restrictions,” he told reporters at the White House on Monday.

OBSERVATION – Democrats continue to ‘fix’ things by wanting to tax them.

“There’s this cliff that’s happening in January,” said Gene Myers, CEO of Thrive Homebuilders in the Denver area, which was one of the hottest markets in the years leading up to and through the coronavirus pandemic.
Barely six months ago, single-family housing starts were still up 10% year over year. That was just before mortgage rates really started to jump quickly. To go from a 10% annual gain in construction to a 19% drop in that time frame is an historically sharp turn. Demand for new homes is down 89% from last year.

OBSERVATION – Repeating myself here, housing market shows just how dangerously sickly and weak the US economy is and the expected rate increases by the Fed will crater it.

Oil prices could climb back to $100 this year and trade above $120 in 2023 as a looming, unpredictable winter arrives while energy stockpiles shrink, according to top analyst Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects — but the diesel shortage is a more pressing issue.

“We are expecting [oil] prices to go towards $100 into the year end, and really trade into the $110s and $120s for most of next year,” Sen told Bloomberg on Monday, adding that a cold winter poses the greatest upward pressure on prices.

OBSERVATION – Global instability a continuing cause compounded by biden policies limiting domestic efforts to extract and refine more oil. By its nature, a recession historically reduces oil demand do to decreased economic activity. However, our economy is not in a “normal” phase.

CW2/Domestic violence –

As much as I loath her, her words must be taken into account here.

“The Republican Party and its mouthpieces now regularly spread hate and deranged conspiracy theories. It is shocking, but not surprising, that violence is the result. As citizens, we must hold them accountable for their words and the actions that follow.”

OBSERVATION – Anyone who doesn’t understand the tyranny behind hildabeast’s words is sadly uneducated. The Marxist democrats time and again have alluded to punishing their opponents – some actually going as far as calling for jailing/detention camps and yes, even murder. In this timing and context, hildabeast may be telegraphing democrat condoned ( and potentially even sponsored) violence after the midterms.

Republicans privately expect Attorney General Merrick Garland to indict former President Donald Trump between 60 and 90 days after the midterm elections, according to a report on Monday.
GOP aides on Capitol Hill and former strategists said they do not have insider knowledge about an indictment on Trump, but they claim that a deadline to indict the former president is quickly approaching and Garland is facing heat from Democrats to act fast. However, indicting Trump could have negative consequences for Democrats, some aides suggested.
“[An indictment] could actually end up helping the [former] president politically,” an anonymous Republican aide told the Hill. “People have been talking about splintering support and dampening enthusiasm among Republican voters for him. An indictment could actually galvanize and reunify Republicans around him.”

OBSERVATION - This continues as speculation. It was once thought the left could splinter republicans by indicting him before the midterms – then they opened their eyes and saw the potential backlash. There is a saying that goes “The proverb “when you strike at a king, you must kill him” (alternative - “If you try to kill the King, you best not miss”). As recent actions and accusations against Trump have show – the left has missed miserably and has only gotten away with it due to the deep swamp protecting the “shooters”.

An indictment, even that far ahead of the 2024 election, could bring the country dangerously close to a hot civil war. Any jackbooted arrests – as the FBI/DoJ has been fond of recently, will (not would or could) inflame a significant portion of the US into action – and not just words. This will bring dangerous times to the country and could instigate the circumstances where the left can call for a martial law scenario and negate the 2024 elections – perhaps going as far as to negate the 2022 mids by removing Trump supporting republican congress members.

The Constitution is clear –
“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

Yet the DHS attempted to establish a “Disinformation Governance Board” and just recently it has come forward that the govt has worked to censor thought/speech on social media through pressure on private platforms.
Facts are not determined by experts, and the pandemic proved it. In order for a free society to function, each individual person must be allowed to dissent and speak without fear of reprisal.
Joe Biden and the DHS want to stop that.

OBSERVATION – Not only Orewellian but harkens to the era of the Soviet Union. Too much of today’s generation has no knowledge of how the KGB and the Stazi operated in that period and is too blind to see the dangers of resurrecting it today.

MORE RELATED – DHS has expanded efforts to root out disinformation across social media. This effort has expanded to encompass sub-agencies such as ICE, the Secret Service, and the DHS Science and Technology Directorate. The draft Quadrennial Homeland Security Review calls for DHS to hire specialists and leverage data analytics technology to better understand how threat actors use online platforms to spread “toxic narratives” intended to incite violence. It also calls for DHS to work with NGOs and civil society groups to build resilience to the impacts of false information. Before the 2020 election, the FBI and CISA met with social media companies monthly to coordinate the handling of misinformation during the election. (FO)

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

The Department of Homeland Security has been working to influence big tech platforms. This became originally evident when the Biden administration launched the ill-fated Disinformation Governance Board early in 2022, but has been a focus of their efforts even beyond that now-defunct unit, and before.
Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt filed a lawsuit that revealed via appended meeting minutes that former Microsoft executive Matt Masterson, who was formerly an official with DHS, told a DHS director in February 2022 that “Platforms have got to get comfortable with gov’t. It’s really interesting how hesitant they remain.” This according to The Intercept.
Prior to 2020, it was reported that DHS met with Twitter, Facebook, Wikipedia, and other platforms in order to coordinate “content moderation” operations. These meetings were part of an ongoing initiative which saw collusion and collaboration between DHS and big tech to determine how “misinformation” would be dealt with on those platforms.

OBSERVATION – Musk is now owner of the Twitter side of these discussions. Be interesting how he plays this hand.

POLITICAL FRONT –

I’ll be glad when midterms are over and the political ads are gone.

China –

COVID-19 cases in mainland China are rapidly increasing at nearly 3000 cases per day, prompting public health officials to call for widespread restrictions on individual movement.

OBSERVATION – Lock downs have devastated local economies as well as disrupted global networks. Expect more to continue as China shoots itself in the economic foot.

For a reminder, China is still flying 10-20 aircraft a day into the Taiwan ADZ.

North/South Korea -

North Korea on Monday demanded that the United States and South Korea stop large-scale military exercises, calling them a provocation that may draw “more powerful follow-up measures” from Pyongyang.

“The situation in the Korean Peninsula and its vicinity has entered the serious confrontation phase of power for power again due to the ceaseless and reckless military moves of the U.S. and South Korea,” North Korea’s foreign ministry said.

OBSERVATION – Typical of the NK rhetoric. Most likely scenario are more missiles – perhaps even another intermediate range BM. Not sure is a nuke test is in the mix.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russia appears to be focusing more on a missile campaign targeting electrical infrastructure to stress Ukraine as winter approaches.

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Russians fired at civilian tugboats transporting a barge with grain near Ochakiv, the Operational Command “South” reported. Two crew members were killed, and one with injuries was rescued. The fate of another one is not yet known.

Russian Defense Ministry says movement of ships along Black Sea security corridor is unacceptable. Russia says no one can guarantee the security of any object in the Black Sea corridor until Ukraine accepts additional obligations not to use this route for military purposes.

“The Russian Federation cannot allow the unimpeded passage of ships through the Black Sea without inspection” - Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya

At LEAST 22 vessels have departed the Port of Odesa in the last 24 hours. Most are bulk grain carriers. These ships were also reportedly escorted part of the way by Turkish naval vessels.

NUKE WATCH -
Britain Monday warned Russian President Vladimir Putin of severe consequences if Moscow uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, saying such a step would change the nature of the conflict. - Reuters

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period. Although wet, temperatures have been relatively mild, mitigating the mud, but that is apparently coming to an end.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Iranian supplied drones were back at it again last night, hitting targets throughout Ukraine.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Sporatic Russian artillery along the border northeast of Kharkiv.

Ukraininan forces continue to push eastward towards Hwy 66 south of Svatov

Donetsk Oblast ——
Ukranian forces are continuing to attack north and south of Kreminna. Russian forces were able to make small gains around Bahkmut area.

Crimean front ———
In what is widely being considered a rouge to depopulate the area, occupation authorities announced evacuation in range of 15kms to Dnipro river. This is based on a restatement of the threat that Ukraine would be blowing up the dam.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian drone strikes in numerous areas

Russian Territory -—
Explosions reported in Belgorod, probable Ukrainian strike on an undefined target.

A video surfaced allegedly showing the planting of explosive charges on a Russian Ka-52 helicopter by a saboteur on Veretye Air Base, Pskov Oblast - according to Russian media two helicopters there were damaged due to unknown explosions on October 30th.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Conditions appear to be static for now. Ukraine is making progress in the east to cut off Svatov and major Russian supply lines south to Lukansk. Russia keeps hammering the Donetsk – Bahkmut line.

Things are still unclear in Kherson. Persistant reports of Russian force withdrawals to the east side of the Dnipir River and construction of defenses of Kherson city.

Belarus -

Belarus continues to ship its armor/tanks to Russia for use in Ukraine. Continuation of this effort reduces the probability that they would have the capability to launch any kind of a credible attack into Ukraine from the north.

Poland -

Looking to host US nuclear weapons, see below

.
Europe / NATO General -

In a move that could risk infuriating Russia, nuclear weapons could be positioned in Finland if the country’s application to join NATO is approved, according to a report from a Finnish newspaper.
Poland has also indicated they would consider the same.

Norway announced Monday that it will increase its military preparedness in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the “serious security situation in Europe.” This from concerns over damage to its oil pipelines and numerous U/I drones flying over strategic facilities, some drones being linked to recently arrested Russian spies.

Israel -

Polling stations open in Israel’s legislative elections, 5th in 3 years. Final polls on Friday indicated that Israel’s right-wing former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could come just one seat short of an outright majority in his push to return to power. What gives the ex-PM a boost in this vote is a deal between Likud and the far-right party, Religious Zionism, which has seen a sharp rise in popularity.

Iran -

In spite of increasingly violent repression by govt elements, protests remain strong throughout Iran.

Central / South America General-

Situation remains tense in Brazil Following Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s victory in Sunday’s runoff elections. Brazilian Truckers are blocking roads in 12 Brazilian states in protest. Truckers are a key support group of incumbent President Bolsonaro and have previously shut down the nation’s highways to back Bolsonaro’s political moves. Initial concerns on how long and how much impact to Brazil’s agricultural exports will result.

Get up to go to the bathroom during the night, check twitter and see things going nutz in the Korea’s . So much for a restful night’s sleep after that.

Wuhan virus –

Massive rejection of the “Atlantic’s “ ‘Lets declare a pandemic amnesty’ article continues. I could say a lot, but one article by NC Renegade says it best found here - https://ncrenegade.com/a-slap-in-the-face-and-righteous-idignation/

“We are filled with Righteous Indignation.
You need to seek forgiveness, in sackcloth and ashes, from the God you have offended for the Evil you have enabled. For the elderly who were left to die alone. For the children who had their childhoods stolen. For your neighbors who had their lives and livelihoods destroyed so you could feel safe. For your fellow citizens who will NEVER be able to return to “normal” after what you’ve done. God’s Justice DEMANDS there be trials AND punishments. To demand “forgiveness” without accountability is NOT WWJD.
We cannot and WILL NOT “work with you.” To order us to AGAIN comply by granting you “amnesty” and an ease of conscience that is not ours to give, shows that you will only repeat your prior actions when TPTB unleash the next “crisis.” You called us “Grandma killers” then and “unloving and unforgiving” now. And all of history shows you will happily comply with Evil when this happens again.”

Economy –

Analysts and markets predict the Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points later today at its November meeting to 4%, the highest since 2008. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers believes that “rates have to go somewhat above 5, perhaps 5.5%”.

37% of small businesses, which employ almost half of all Americans working in the private sector, were unable to pay their rent in full in October. This is a 7% increase over August, in which 30% of small businesses were delinquent on rent.

Republicans are preparing an ambitious energy plan if they take the House in November. The plan includes measures to stimulate oil and gas production, ease permitting regulations, and reduce reliance on Russia and China for critical materials.

OBSERVATION – They may prepare such a plan, but the chances of getting such a bill signed by biden are nil to zero.

A common antibiotic used to treat ear and sinus infections in children is in short supply in the US. Four drugmakers behind the nation’s amoxicillin supply now have limited doses of the liquid form of the medication.
The Food and Drug Association (FDA) blamed a surge in demand for the shortage — with respiratory illnesses at unseasonably high levels.

OBSERVATION – File also under wuhan. The medical community leadership (and the sheeple practitioners who willingly complied ) set our kids up for this outbreak.

Following a lack of capacity in 2020, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has granted $73 million to small and medium-sized meat processing businesses for expansion. A lack of processing space led to excess waste in 2020 that contributed to higher meat prices, which the USDA is trying to cushion for the future.

OBSERVATION – A part of the initial processing space capacity issue was the dual meat processing system that was operating. A number of processors dealt with supplying commercial businesses (restaurants, etc.) meat products. With the closure of restaurants, these plants couldn’t adapt rapidly to the different packaging requirements for consumer outlets. Add to it personnel shortages severely limited production at these larger plants. More, smaller plants are a smart way of dealing with any future crunch.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden AGAIN: “I’m thinking about Iraq because that’s where my son died.”

CW2/Domestic violence –

Candidate for the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, Richard Ringer, reported being beaten in his driveway early Monday Morning. The candidate’s house was graffitied less than a week ago. Ringer claims the motivation behind the attacks are political.

OBSERVATION – I am still surprised that there hasn’t been more political violence by the left. However, with less than a week to go to election day, there is still chances that more will occur.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Need more popcorn for the Musk twitter show.

POLITICAL FRONT –

More weirdness from the hammer time at pelosi’s
Still bewilderment of how a gay, nudist supporter in underwear broke into the Pelosi mansion – and did not trigger a single alarm or any security – in spite of this being the residence of the third in line to the WH. Now, reports that the Capitol police had camera monitors that ‘caught’ the assault - but no one was watching the video feeds.
And, of course, Pelosi is refusing to release any video evidence that may actually exist.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Monitoring for any US response to the latest NK missile and rhetoric barrage.

China –

With NK going nutz, some think China has encouraged the behavior as a cover for an action against Taiwan. I don’t believe so at this time.

North/South Korea –

Things have calmed down for the past few hours.

NK is not happy with the current US-SK military exercises. I noted yesterday they would likely fire off some missiles to register their disagreement – but I didn’t imagine they would go to this extreme.

Things got tense fast after NK launched an unprecedented series of missiles. Latest count is about 23, according to South Korea’s military, plus a hundred rounds of artillery into the buffer zone.

Initial round started off with a salvo of three missiles, with one missile landing 57km east of Sokcho according to the South Korean military. The other two landed 26km south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) maritime zone, and 167km northwest of Ulleungdo.

The two fired towards Ulleungdo, represent a major shift in tactics and geographical direction as North Korean missiles typically land in waters near their own coast or at least north of the inter-Korean border. (Or over Japan in space.) Ulleungdo that would have been farthest east southward flight done by NK. Air raid alert issued for residents on S. Korean island of Ullleungdo after NK missile launch.

President Yoon Suk-yeol called an emergency meeting of the National Security Council following North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile toward the East Sea. Armed forces of both SK and the US went to high alert status.

In response, SK fired 3 air to ground missiles towards north of the maritime border. The last time South Korea did this, the Bombardment of Yeonpyeong occurred, 2010.

(FYI - The Bombardment of Yeonpyeong was an artillery engagement between the North Korean military and South Korean forces stationed on Yeonpyeong Island on 23 November 2010. Following a South Korean artillery exercise in disputed waters near the island, North Korean forces fired around 170 artillery shells and rockets at Yeonpyeong Island, hitting both military and civilian targets. The shelling caused widespread damage on the island. South Korea retaliated by shelling North Korean gun positions.)

NK has continued firing missiles and the current count is approximately 23, most into the East and Yellow Seas, most south of the NLL with at least one landing outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to TV Asahi.

Earlier in the day, NK issued a veiled threat to use nuclear weapons to get the U.S. and South Korea to “pay the most horrible price in history,” an escalation of its fiery rhetoric targeting the ongoing large-scale military drills between its rivals. “If the U.S. and South Korea attempt to use armed forces against (North Korea) without any fear, the special means of the (North’s) armed forces will carry out their strategic mission without delay,” Pak said, in an apparent reference to his country’s nuclear weapons.

OBSERVATION – There is no end foreseen in the current escalation between the Koreas. The north is engaging in a dangerous game of chicken where one miscalculation could result in open warfare on the peninsula.

NK CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT – NK has developed a wide range of short to medium range ballistic missiles and would rely heavily upon them in the initial stages of any resumption of the war with the south. Longer ranged missiles could be used to target US assets in Guam or Japan.

NK possesses the capability to use a nuclear weapon up to low range thermonuclear (H-bomb) size, but delivery capability is uncertain. Though likely working towards that capability it is uncertain if NK has been able to miniaturize a warhead to fit any of its missiles or aircraft bombs.

NK airforce consists of old Soviet era airframes of questionable maintaince and readiness. They were able to recently sorte nearly 100 in a show of force along the border. However, they are sorely outmatched by the more modern systems of SK and the US.

NK ground forces, though large in number on paper, have lost a lot of their edge over the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union. With the exception of some of the elite units, the bulk of the army have been forced to work in the farm fields just to stay above starvation levels. Again, mostly equipped with Soviet era systems and very little training on combat operations, it is at a severe disadvantage against the more modern systems of the south. Still strong are the artillery units NK would be expected to deploy to hardened positions along the DMZ where it could reach Seoul.

A ground attack from the north will face rough, channelizing terrain that will make it difficult for NK to proceed against SK defenses. Further, season is transitioning to winter – a very bitter cold time of the year and may stress NK more than SK due to poor winter gear supplies.

On the flip side, the military is still very loyal to Kim and would be expected to (at least initially) fight fanatically. Lacking a solid logistics tail, the NK army would soon be forced to scrounge the SK country side for food and fuel, slowing its advance and throwing its offensive into disarray. Looting may also be a significant factor when faced with the kind of stuff that even the poorer SK population has versus the north.

In summary, the initial fighting would be fierce, but NK no longer packs the punch it once had during the Soviet era. It is almost guaranteed that Kim would try to use a nuke as part of the initial attacks, but the delivery method is still not certain. Most likely via a ballistic missile with Seoul as the primary target. Kim and SK’s Yoon both seem to be itching for a fight and they may well get one.

US FORCE POSTURE- United States Forces Korea (USFK) is a sub-unified command of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command(USINDOPACOM). USFK is the joint headquarters for U.S. combat-ready fighting forces and components under the ROK/US Combined Forces Command (CFC) – a supreme command for all of the South Korean and U.S. ground, air, sea and special operations component commands. Major USFK elements include U.S. Eighth Army (EUSA), U.S. Air Forces Korea (Seventh Air Force), U.S. Naval Forces Korea (CNFK), U.S. Marine Forces Korea (MARFORK) and U.S. Special Operations Command Korea (SOCKOR). It was established on July 1, 1957. Approximately 28,500 U.S. soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines in South Korea.

Additionally, US has the USS Ronald Reagan CSG operating in the N Phillippines region and the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) amphib group near Taiwan. USS America (LHA-6) currently at port in Sasebo, Japan. US recently deployed 4 B-2 bombers to Guam and is capable of deploying more. US has marine and air force elements at Okinawa, Japan.

Final note – Was in S Korea in the late 80s for the Team Spirit exercises. Tough terrain and very dense urban areas, especially around Seoul. Initial fighting would be very ugly, very ugly indeed.

Japan –

Watching closely the developments between the Koreas.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

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UN expects that loaded ships will leave Ukrainian ports on Thursday: UN Coordinator for Black Sea deal. no reports of any attacks or obstruction so far of merchant grain ships passaging through the waters, with reportedly Turkish support for safe passage.
Russia has resumed participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative - Russian Defense Ministry
NOTE - Huge international pressure to continue to allow Ukraine wheat transit. If Russia started to interdict, there was a growing likelihood of an international military convoy protection developing.

NUKE WATCH -
Rhetoric has quieted down lately.

Logistics –
- Ukrainian intelligence reports that Iran is getting ready to ship approximately 400 more drones to Russia.

- Iran is also believed to be preparing to ship hundreds of short ranged ballistic missiles to Russia as well, to replace the stockpile Russia initially had.

- British Ministry of Defense (MOD) officials revealed the deployment of Russian hypersonic missiles to a base in Belarus. MOD officials said satellite imagery of the base showed the presence of Russian MIG-31K fighters and storage containers containing Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. (NOTE - Kinzhal missiles have a range of over 2000 km and are capable of delivering a 10-15 kiloton nuclear or a conventional warhead at speeds in excess of Mach 10 while maneuvering to avoid interception, making them a premier first strike weapon. )

Ukraine -

RUMINT –
U.S. military personnel are now on the ground in Ukraine, keeping track of and inspecting weapons the U.S. has shipped to Ukrainian forces, a senior defense official announced during a Pentagon background briefing on Monday. These U.S. personnel are some of the first the Pentagon has acknowledged have entered Ukraine since Russia launched its large scale invasion of the country in February.
The senior defense official who spoke on background during an official Pentagon event, said, “U.S. personnel have recently resumed on-site inspections to assess weapon stocks in country whenever and wherever the security conditions allow.” The official said “the return of our defense attaché and Office of Defense Cooperation personnel in country has allowed us to resume this critical function.”

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More Iranian made drone attacks overnight. Ukrainian air defense reportedly shot down 12 of 13 Shahed-136 drones launched against central and eastern regions overnight. Otherwise, there has been little change in the status of the eastern and southern fronts.

Kyiv front ——
The Kyiv Oblast Military Administration planes to prepare up to 425 special shelters in case of a nuclear strike by Russia in the next two weeks per Oleksii Kuleba Head of the Kyiv Oblast Military Administration.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Widely scattered and sporatic Russian artillery fire at border area targets.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Scattered Russian artillery fire along the border northeast of the city. Russia attempted some counterattacks along the Svatov – Kreminna line.

Donetsk Oblast ——
With some artillery support, Russia once again launched attacks along the eastern LOC, with the fiercest one in the area surrounding Bahkmut.

Crimean front ———
Activity on both sides was relatively quiet in northern Kherson Oblast. Continuing reports of Russian defenses being established around Kherson as well as units being pulled back to the eastern side of the Dnipir River.

It is looking more like Russia is attempting to establish a new defensive line along the eastern bank of the Dnipir River. A logical choice given the size of the river and the extensive requirements for any kind of opposed river crossing necessary for Ukraine to pursue the attack to the south and east.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Several explosions and fire reported in Dnipropetrovsk region near Dnipro from drone attack

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Looks like Russia backed down and is not going to interfere with grain shipments out of Ukraine.

Russian reliance on Iranian made drones is evident by the significant reduction in the use of Russian made missiles. Iran is slated to ship hundreds more of the drones – but considering that Russia fires a boat load of them in order to get enough past the ADA to actually hit the target, the question is how deep are Iran’s stocks and how quickly can they create new ones?

Action on the fronts is anticipated to be at relatively low levels with the exception of the Donetsk – Bahkmut line, where Russian Wagner group mercenaries continue to throw themselves at Ukrainian defenses for little or no gains.

Belarus -

Belarusian troops who at the end of regular conscription service are being actively pressed to sign up for a contract. According to one report, they are being told to that “otherwise they will be mobilized later on”.

OBSERVATION – Belarus is trying to maintain an aggressive military posture against Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States. It is questionable just how successful this appeal will be at keeping conscripts in the service.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Unknown UAVs were spotted over the barracks and positions of the Serbian Armed Forces in the area of Merdar and Raška in Serbia, near the border with Kosovo.
The objects left the Serbian airspace after MiG-29 fighter jets were scrambled

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has just announced that Orders have been given to the Military and Federal Police to Eliminate any Hostile Drones that are seen over the Country and to begin preparations to Defend the Republic of Serbia from further “Intruders”.

Serbian MiG-29 fighter jets are allegedly now flying and Vucic has ordered to destroy all spying drones.

OBSERVATION – Ok, who’s messing with the Serbs. Possibly Kosovars – see following.

Serbian Defence Minister Miloš Vučević announced the Serbian Military had been placed on high alert under the orders of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. The orders come after a decision by the Kosovan government to enforce a requirement for ethnic Serbs in Kosovo to purchase and display Kosovo license plates with illegal license plates resulting in fines issued by police. Cautioning Kosovo from playing “war games,” Serbian officials said the Serbian army was ready to “implement every order of President Vučić” and protect all Serbian citizens, “including the Serbs in Kosovo.”

OBSERVATION – Serbia has been brewing for a fight ever since NATO put them in a box during clinton’s years. Some suggest that Russia is pushing for a conflict in order to divert NATO’s attention from Ukraine.

Israel -

With more than 80% of the ballots from national elections counted it looks like Netanyahu is solidifying his victory. Meretz, Ra’am and Balad are all still under threshold, with Labor & HT on edge. May still change, but if projections hold, Netanyahu bloc could end up with 65+ seats!

OBSERVATION - That margin of victory would solidify Netanyahu in place for a considerable amount of time and stabilize the govt.

Iran -

The Flag of Revenge has been raised on the dome of a mosque in Shiraz, Iran as Saudi Arabia warned of an imminent Iranian attack on U.S. assets across the Saudi Kingdom and Iraq. The flag will only be lowered once the “revengeful act” will be successful.
This is where a terrorist attack was carried a few days ago leaving multiple people dead. Iranian President Raisi put the blame on ISIS, the ongoing Iranian protests and U.S./Israel

This may be related to reports that the United States and Saudi Arabia have shared intelligence with each other that indicates that Iran may be planning an imminent attack on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, a US official tells CNN.

OBSERVATION – Some analysts have linked Iran’s attacks on the kurds to the ongoing protests (which are still going strong BTW) as a vehicle to distract and diffuse the rioting. Right now RUMINT is suggesting that Iran is looking to target Saudi oil infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia -

See Iran threat above

Central / South America General-

So far it looks like the transition of power in Brazil is going to happen without significant violence, but not continued political intrigue. Bolsonaro has not conceded but says he will “follow the constitution” in first speech after Brazil’s election. In that speech, Bolsonaro thanked his supporters and praised ongoing protests in Brazil as a “popular movement” while refusing to acknowledge his defeat. Saying that the protests were the fruit of “indignation and a sense of injustice” over the elections, Bolsonaro called on protestors to avoid destroying property and “impeding the right to come and go.”

Brazilian military are deployed to major cities in the event they are needed to maintain order.

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