Threat Matrix 2022

Yep, I’m back and a little loopy from the long drive and time changes. So today is kinda a catch up day. Sadly things haven’t gotten better, only worse.

Globalism / Great Reset -

The Swiss government has taken drastic steps to alleviate the energy crisis gripping Europe, the newspaper Blick reported on Tuesday. Those who violate the government’s heating regulations this winter could be given a fine or even jail time, it said.
Natural gas prices in Europe rose 30% on Monday after Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline failed to resume operations due to sanctions-related maintenance issues. Russian energy giant Gazprom, which operates the pipeline, said the gas route would remain shut down indefinitely. Moscow added that pipeline operations will be hampered as long as Western sanctions remain in place.

OBSERVATION - Europe is facing a potentially catastrophic winter with Russia gas supplies being cut off along with other green energy related shortages. If there ever was a disaster the GGR folks could exploit (which they started to implement years ago) it is this. The Swiss are one component of the bait and switch over green energy.

The UK’s Queen Elizabeth II has been placed under medical supervision over concerns for her health, the royal family announced on Thursday. “Following further evaluation this morning, The Queen’s doctors are concerned for Her Majesty’s health and have recommended she remain under medical supervision,” the family said in a statement. “The Queen remains comfortable and at Balmoral [Castle]” — the Scottish estate where she has spent the summer.

OBSERVATION - The British monarchy is little more than a figure head, but Elizabeth has done a lot to stabilize the politics of of Britain. Leftists will see the successor to the throne - Charles - as an advocate and push policies to destabilize the country and force the GGR green agenda on the country. BTW, Chaz is in one of the GGR/WEFs inner circles.

The California Teachers Association (CTA) has been caught spying on kalifornian parents who were pushing to get the schools reopened last year. Obviously the goal of the GGR supporters is to destroy parental authority over school kids as well as perpetuate the wuhan scare and dictatorial mandates.

https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2022/09/07/california-teachers-union-caught-spying-on-parents-n623390

IN RELATED - Teachers in a conservative county in Michigan are pushing back against parents concerns over the inclusion of one book in the district’s 9th-grade curriculum. The book “Speak” by Laurie Halse Anderson, a novel about a 13-year-old girl who is the victim of a sexual assault.

OBSERVATION - Increasingly forgetting just who these teachers and school boards are suppose to be working for - the people.

Europe is our future. GGR forcing its green agenda will likely cause food shortages and power outages this winter. Here in the US, the “Inflation Reduction Act” puts farmers under the control of the EPA to govern nitrogen emissions. Additionally, it allocates $20 billion to fund “climate-smart agricultural practices.” News from Europe helps us to predict how bureaucrats will use this money. Regulators will spend it reducing meat production further, especially beef, and lowering food output by restricting fertilizer and energy from fossil fuels.

OBSERVATION - I’ve been saying this a lot - start stocking up now. You’ve missed a window of lower food prices and you are now being the 8 ball if you are starting. This is a global crisis of the GGR’s making - and no one will be coming to help us.

Wuhan virus -

Death claims for working-age adults under group life insurance policies spiked well beyond expected levels last summer and fall, according to data from 20 of the top 21 life insurance companies in the United States.
While COVID-19 played some role in the majority of the excess deaths for adults over the age of 34 during the two pandemic years, the opposite was true for younger people. For people 34 and younger, the number of excess non-COVID deaths was higher than those related to COVID, the data show.
During the third quarter of last year, deaths in the 25-to-34 age bracket were 78 percent above the expected level and, for people aged 45 to 54, 80 percent higher than expected. Excess mortality was 53 percent above the baseline for adults aged 55 to 64.

OBSERVATION - We have passed a threshold where the “cure” is officially worse than the disease itself.

Economy -

Congress is looking to pass another Continuing Resolution before 30 September, when the fiscal year ends. Debate on Biden’s spending plan started last week in the Senate.

OBSERVATION - Same old, same old, kick the can down the road.

Jason Furman , chairman of the White House Council on Economic Advisers under Obama, observes that the Fed is going to need to run a 6.5% unemployment rate for two years to get the rate of inflation back to 2%. In other words, the Fed is going to have to put more people out of work, which likely means running a recession.

OBSERVATION - The jobs report is already convoluted and doesn’t tell the story anyway. But looking at equals, he sees the ‘official ‘ doubling of the rate - so translate it to current conditions and apply liberally.
Consolidated rumblings from the Fed indicate that they see now expect weakening economic conditions through the middle of 2023. However, they are loath to use the “R” word to describe it.

BlackRock ($8 trillion assets under management) said they expect a “large drop” in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by mid-2023, signaling the start of a recession by early next year at the latest.

OBSERVATION - Technically, we are in recession conditions. This forecast suggests fa worse is coming this way.

A potential nationwide freight rail strike is looming, threatening to cripple the U.S. economy ahead of the holiday shopping season and November’s midterm elections. Roughly 115,000 rail workers could walk off the job as soon as Sept. 16 if they cannot agree to a new contract with railroads. That’s the first day workers could legally strike after a White House-appointed panel released collective bargaining recommendations aimed at ending years of contentious negotiations.
Five of the 12 unions representing rail workers have reached tentative agreements with railroads to enact the Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) recommendations, which call for 24 percent pay raises, back pay and cash bonuses. But the bulk of railroad workers belong to unions that haven’t yet agreed to a deal. It’s also unclear whether workers would vote to ratify PEB recommendations that don’t address their concerns about punishing hours and rigid schedules that make it difficult to take time off for any reason.

OBSERVATION - This was warned about earlier this year. A PEB was instituted to break the dead lock at that time. It appears that the unions are not signing on to the recommendations. Our supply/shipping issues are still acute and a rail shutdown would have potentially devastating effects on the economy. The Association of American Railroads, which estimates that a national rail shutdown would cost the U.S. at least $2 billion a day.

An outbreak of bird flu that has led to the deaths of 43 million chickens and turkeys this year across the U.S. has been found at a giant egg-laying operation in Ohio, state and federal agriculture officials said Wednesday.
The case confirmed over the weekend in Ohio’s Defiance County has affected roughly 3 million chickens, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The egg-laying farm has started euthanizing all of its flock, said Dennis Summers, the state’s veterinarian.

OBSERVATION - This version of the bird flu has been especially virulent and hard to suppress. Poultry and egg prices can continue to be substantially higher than normal. Watching this to see if this may predict a second major round of flock callings across the country.

Aluminum, copper and steel plants are shutting down worldwide as well as fertilizer plants - all due to excessive prices for electricity and natural gas. These shutdown will ripple back into the economy if the form of shortages and higher prices.

Biden / Harris watch -

Bad blood between biden and 0bama boiled up when the evil one’s portrait was unveiled at the white house. biden refused to rise of the chosen one.

CW2/Domestic violence -

If you were in denial, biden’s speech last week sold have ripped off the blinders. The leftists/deep state is now openly at war with half of the country.

Senator Warren (D-MA), Representative Dean (D-PA), and workers union-owned Amalgamated Bank are pushing payment processors to make a new Merchant Category Code for gun and ammunition sales, allowing for easier tracking of these purchases.

OBSERVATION - Another method to coerce the private sector into doing the dirty work for the leftists. Their stated ‘goal’ is to track purchases to prevent individuals from getting guns or spotting patterns fo purchases. Its bottom line os to deny all purchases altogether. Left has been pushing credit card companies to suspend purchases of guns and ammo for a while.

Leftists/Antifa et al in Portland are on a PR campaign within its influence zone of other leftists to push increased violence targeting conservatives across the country.

China -

There are rumors that China’s regulators are forcing Chinese banks to meet high loan quotas in an effort to stimulate the economy. The implosion of the property market is causing increasingly large ripples through the rest of the economy.

BTW, China continues air and sea incursions around Taiwan.

Japan -

.Japan’s Ministry of Defense announced it is constructing two large ballistic missile defense ships. The vessels would replace the U.S.-built Aegis Ashore system that Japan rejected in 2020. Both ships, effectively large Aegis Destroyers.

OBSERVATION - The arms race is on in the far east as Japan is trying to produce defensive and offensive ams to counter the China threat

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have modified their immediate goals to try to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. Russia is struggling to contain the Ukraine offensive and is loosing ground on several fronts.

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Putin threatened to cut delivery of all European energy supplies saying, “We will not supply gas, oil, coal, heating oil – we will not supply anything” during a speech in response to G7 proposals on price caps on Russian oil and gas. Already, NS 1 deliveries are stopped indefinitely untill current sanctions are lifted.

Logistics -
- American Intelligence officials have confirmed the validity of recently declassified reports indicating the Russian Ministry of Defense has purchased millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea to overcome the crippling supply shortages faced by its troops in Ukraine. You think Russia has quality control issues with its stuff now

- Russia has sent S-350 SAM (Surface to Air Missile) defense systems to airbases in Ukraine where Su-25 ground attack aircraft are based. The S-350 is expected to provide protection against Ukrainian HIMARS guided rocket attacks. S-350 was designed to provide short range protection against ballistic and cruise missiles as well as armed UAVs and helicopters. S-350 units have been in Ukraine for about a month but do not seem to have intercepted anything yet. If they had, Russia would be boasting about it.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia still having problems recruiting new cannon fodder for its Ukraine ‘action’.

Economic Impact -
- Sanctions are failing to hurt Russia as it has made many work arounds with China as well as western countries desperate for Russian resources such as food, and energy.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
I’ll say up front, what I’m putting here is contrary to some FR threads where clear Russian propaganda sources are being touted as authentic information. Those posts are BS imho and shouldn’t be bothered with. The posters should be ashamed.

A bit more substantial than 24 hours. While out, the Ukranian counter offensive has gained steam, in large part due to poor Russian planning and implementation. Instead of only worriyng about a front in Kherson, counter offensives have kicked off in the east, threatening its hold on terrain gained at great cost over the past few months. I’ll detail some of the points below.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Routine scattered artillery strikes

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv are conducting a significant ground maneuver spanning over 50 km deep and capturing about 400 square kilometers so far, liberating over 20 settlements. Ukrainian forces captured many settlements north of Balakliya. lines to Ukrainian military entered Schevchenkove in Kharkiv region in what appears to be a push towards the Russian controlled transportation center of Kivsharivulka. This poses a serious threat to the Izyum operations. Ukraine is reportedly taken advantage of poorly trained Russian national guard and police units and executing a high speed out maneuvering of those Russian forces. With reserve forces deployed to the Kherson front, Russia has very little to stop the break through with.

Russia has intensified artillery attacks south of Izyum but attacks southward failed to make any gains. are now seriously threatened

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian artillery and airstrikes intensified all along the LOC. Supported Russian ground attacks failed to gain ground particularly around the hard fought battles around Bakhmut.

Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant continues to be a sword of Damocles in the region as UN inspectors confirmed Russian use of the power plants to store military vehicles and supples.

Crimean Front ——
Ukraine forces continue to push southeastward from the vicinity Bezimenne, Andriivka and Bila Krynytsa. Russian artillery focusing on the push as well as targeting in the north and Kherson area. Ukraine continues strikes into Crimea targeting CP, troop gatherings and logistics bases.
Ukrainian aviation conducted over 30 airstrikes at gatherings and bases of Russian forces.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russia launched 10 missile strikes and 22 airstrikes across Ukraine. Most were centered on the current front lines.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
Several explosions have targeted Russian collaborators in Melitopol.

Ammunition / logistical sites hit —
Ongoing

OUTLOOK ——

What appeared as a very slow development of the Kherson counter offensive has broken out into a new dynamic situation.

Concerning Kherson - Ukraine’s stated objective essentially look to lure critical units, ammunition and leadership into range of HIMARS and systematically rip them apart. They have been doing so very successfully, particularly in conjunction with Ukrainian Partisan resistance.
They have not been sluggish on the ground though. There are currently three axis of advancement. First is a direct attack towards Kherson from the Mykolaheiv region. Russia has place most of its defensive forces against advance.

Some see the second and third axises being the same but i like to separate for clarity. The second axis is a sailent that has developed. Ukrainian forces are making gains in western Kherson Oblast in the Sukhyi Stavok pocket (about 65km northeast of Kherson City and along the Inhulets River). This axis can essentially split the Russian forces between the Inhulets River on the west and the much larger Dinepro River to the east southeast.

The third axis works with the second. This involves attacks southwards from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This traps Russian forces between the Inhulets and the reservoir created by the dam at Nova Kakhovka on the Dinepro. Some estimates that as many as 10,000+ Russian forces could be trapped.

Russians are very tight lipped over the situation in Kherson Oblast which has made the situation worse in the east. Here as noted above Ukraine has taken advantaged of stripped and poorly prepared forces. this attack if followed to its optimistic conclusions could effectively cutoff Izyum from most of its resupply. The Izyum effort has already been a failure but its loss could cause the collapse of the northern portions of the Eastern Urkaine offensive by Russia. It just doesn’t have the assets to quickly shift to defend that flank.

Speaking of the Russian offensive - it has bogged down in its efforts to take Bakhmut. They have devoted Wagner Group forces as well as VDV to take it. However, Russian artillery is far more silent than it was due to no ammo and no replacement barrels for its artillery pieces. This has placed the southern portion of the eastern offensive front at a similar risk as the Kharkiv region - areas being manned by poorly trained and equipped forces.

For the near term, I see continued success by Ukraine exploiting Russian weaknesses. Ukraine has the tighter OODA loop and is showing the ability to plan and react quicker than Russia can.

Belarus -

Belarusian ministry of defense announced beginning of new military exercise today in the eastern part of the country near Poland.

Europe / NATO General -

Be expecting posting on the impending energy and food shortages looming in Europe and associated riots and protests.

Iran -

White House announced that NATO members will decide how to respond to cyber attacks from Iran after the attack on Albania, including activating Article 5. Albania announces the end of diplomatic ties with Iran and orders all Iranian diplomats and embassy staff to leave the country within the next 24 hours over cyberattacks.

OBSERVATIONS - This may well be the monkey wrench thrown into the nuclear negotiations with Iran. The question being how big of a response for little Albania by NATO.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported the Iranian government increased its uranium stockpiles and could produce 25kg of weapons-grade (90%+) uranium in as little as three weeks. The Iranian government denounced the IAEA claims saying its stockpile of 60% uranium is for medical purposes and has no intention of producing nuclear weaponry.

OBSERVATION - This 3 week period has been out there for a long time. It is acknowledged that the last 30% purification jump is technologically feasable for iran for a while now. Only major change is that Iran now possesses enough 60% uranium to feed a 90% effort.
NOTE ALSO This increases the chance of an Israeli strike to cripple Iran’s nuclear program - likely resulting in Hezebollah launching its attack on Israel - with potential support from Hamas.

Iraq -

Things appear to be relatively calm after Sadr’s display of power last week.

Turkey -

Turkey is threatening war with Greece again. Monitoring.

Mexico -

Cartel wars continue as govt forces attempt to quell them by targeting leadership.

Headed into the weekend, a touch of fall is in the air here in the Redoubt. Gotta hurry and get the outside tasks done before first snows.

Globalism / Great Reset -

King Charles is being referred to as the ‘king’ of the GGR.

Then Prince Charles at the COP26 said this: “Here we need a vast military style campaign to marsh the strength of the global private sector, with trillions at his disposal far beyond global GDP, and with the greatest respect, beyond even the governments of the world’s leaders. It offers the only real prospect of achieving fundamental economic transition. So how do we do it?”

At the onset of COVID Mania, Charles sat down with World Economic Forum leader Klaus Schwab, in which the pair excitedly championed a “Great Reset” to “solve the climate crisis and restore the natural world.” In a podcast with Schwab, Charles advocated “carbon pricing” of goods and a “net zero” agenda, which, of course, would result in mass human suffering.

OBSERVATION - Again, who is the “he” Chaz is referring to? Charles is a figure head, now real power except that to influence parliament and general population.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday admitted that Joe Biden’s ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ is actually the Green New Deal repackaged. Yellen said Biden’s Marxist spending bill will “rid ourselves” of oil and gas.
“The Inflation Reduction Act will put us on our way toward a future where we depend on the wind, the sun and other clean sources of energy. We will rid ourselves from our dependence on fossil fuels,” Yellen said.

OBSERVATION - The green ‘agenda’ is the focus of the GGR in this cycle. The economic engine cannot run without fuel, and the globalists are doing everything they can to take away the energy supplies needed.

In an effort to further its control of the populace and allegedly to help fight climate change, Germany’s Green Party and Social Democrats have proposed skyrocketing the country’s value added tax on meat to 19%, up from the current 7% charged on most foods.
The proposal, however, is running into resistance from conservatives who think it’s an overreach of government and environmental extremists who said it doesn’t go far enough to satisfy their demands.

OBSERVATION - Food is becoming an increasing important tool for GGR compliance and the cattle and dairy industry in particular.

Wuhan virus -

Children between the ages of 6 months and 5 years experienced “local and systemic reactions” after receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, according to data from June 18, 2022, to August 21, 2022, released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The CDC collected the information with the help of a program called V-Safe, a smartphone-based monitoring system that functions with an app that parents download and use on their devices.

OBSERVATION - This report goes on to say most symptoms are mild, but can it be trusted? See below

When reports first surfaced in 2021 that some cases of myocarditis — the inflammation of the heart muscle, potentially leading to blood clots and heart attack or stroke — were potentially associated with the Covid-19 vaccine, the corporate media and its fact-checkers were quick to label them as misinformation, saying the benefits of the vaccine far outweigh its small risks.
A year later, though, the media can no longer deny that what they called misinformation actually has data to back it up. As Matt Shapiro detailed in his Substack post on the matter, “Last year’s misinformation on vaccine-associated myocarditis in young men is this year’s well-established fact.”
According to Vaccine Safety Datalink surveillance data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) conducted in 2022, within a week of receiving the “Dose 2 Primary Series” of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, there were 14 verified cases of myocarditis or pericarditis among the 102,091 males aged 16-17 who got the shot. Among the nearly 206,000 12-15-year-old males who received the same series, 31 cases were confirmed within a week.

OBSERVATION - Millions have been exposed to potentially deadly side effects of the jab. Yesterday’s ‘misinformation ‘ is today’s factual follow-the-science truths. And as noted above - they want us to believe it is safe for children.

Economy -

Freddie Mac lists interest rates at 5.9%. Highest in decades.

BofA analysts have warned about liquidity issues in T bonds, said it could blow up larger than ‘07. “In our view, declining liquidity and resiliency of the Treasury market arguably poses one of the greatest threats to global financial stability today, potentially worse than the housing bubble of 2004-2007,” BofA analysts write. It’s not just Bank of America. In a note to clients this month, JPMorgan analysts are also warning that “Bond and currency markets have seen more severe and more persistent deterioration in liquidity conditions this year,” noting that market depth “has been hovering… around the historically low levels of March 2020.”

OBSERVATION - Transitioning into a potentially severe recession has treasuries with very unstable prices - something the market really doesn’t like. Treasuries are suppose to be stable. According to the New York Fed, the Federal Reserve is going to either announce it will purchase or actually lock itself into purchasing Treasuries when these sell-offs and flights to cash occur – the same thing the Fed always does. It appears they’re going to become a middleman to solve the liquidity problems.

The European Central Bank on Thursday raised interest rates by 75 basis points as the eurozone battles to keep spiraling inflation in check.

The FedEx Ground network relies upon local delivery companies to make the package and parcel dropoffs on behalf of the $54 billion multinational conglomerate. But now one of the largest delivery contractors is warning that the entire system is on the brink of falling apart with local workers unable to absorb any more rising costs.
‘The FedEx Ground network is in far more peril than what anyone realizes. If Wall Street analysts, if FedEx corporate, and FedEx ground understood the degree to which the network is in danger, there would be widespread panic,’ said Spencer Patton, President of Route Consultant.

OBSERVATION - Order your amazon stuff now. There may be a short reprieve now that gasoline prices have dropped a little, but the damage has been done. Labor and vehicle costs are also hammering these contractors.

Fear of power rationing in Kalifornia led top power consumers, such as hospitals, data centers, and manufacturing plants, to fill up their diesel storage tanks to ensure generators had enough fuel to prepare for future brownouts and blackouts, according to Bloomberg, citing fuel distributors in the state. The move to top off the tanks of diesel generators helped push supplies at storage facilities across the state to the lowest levels since 2019 — making the fuel primarily used in industrial applications even more scarce, resulting in higher prices.

OBSERVATION - While we may chuckle at kalifornia’s problems, we forget that those economic impacts do ripple outward to effect the rest of the economy. BTW, kalifornia has outlawed generator purchases starting some time in the near future.

European energy trading is being strained by margin calls of at least $1.5 trillion, putting pressure on governments to provide more liquidity buffers, according to Norway’s Equinor ASA.
Aside from fanning inflation, the biggest energy crisis in decades is sucking up capital to guarantee trades amid wild price swings. That’s pushing European Union officials to intervene to prevent energy markets from stalling, while governments across the region are stepping in to backstop struggling utilities. Finland has warned of a “Lehman Brothers” moment, with power companies facing sudden cash shortages.
“Liquidity support is going to be needed,” Helge Haugane, Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power, said in an interview. The issue is focused on derivatives trading, while the physical market is functioning, he said, adding that the energy company’s estimate for $1.5 trillion to prop up so-called paper trading is “conservative.”

OBSERVATION - A meltdown will not go unnoticed here in the US, and will undoubtedly hit us hard as well.

Biden’s daily release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is set to expire in October. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in an interview with Reuters on Thursday that the Biden administration is considering extending the release schedule.

OBSERVATION - Reserves are lower than they have been since the 80s, and if a global crisis occurs to interrupt supplies, we will be in a world of hurt in short order. Killing drilling for more oil combined with no emergency reserves is a formula for the GGR’s heavy handed push into the new ‘green’ economy.

Invasion of Illegals -

Washington, DC, Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) has declared an emergency in the region as nearly 11,000 border crossers have arrived on buses from Texas and Arizona — a fraction of the number of illegal aliens who arrive in American border towns every few days. She claims the city’s been turned into a ‘border town’.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa et al continues to be operating at a diminished tempo - mostly supporting leftist community help events and rallies.

China -

Xi appears to be doubling down on the China’s Covid Zero policy, a move that may not only cause more pain in the already struggling economy, but also undermine confidence among investors and the general public.
The new measures, which start on Sept. 10 and end on Oct 31, seem to be designed for minimizing outbreak risks before the Party Congress scheduled for mid-October.
Even before the new rules were announced, economists were already busy lowering forecasts for China’s economy. Nomura this week cut its forecast for 2022 growth to 2.7% from 2.8%. On Thursday, Barclays lowered its growth estimate to 2.6% from 3.1%, citing challenges including Covid lockdowns. Of 78 market participants polled by Bloomberg, 25 now see China’s growth below 3% this year.

OBSERVATION - How China is managing to keep things afloat beats me. its economy is hemorrhaging big time.

After two years of border skirmishes in the western Himalayan border area, India has begun a phased disengagement of some of the 50,000 troops deployed to the area.

OBSERVATION - Doubtful China will reciprocate. They have invested millions on improving the infrastructure in and near the contested area.

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea passed a law enshrining the right to use pre-emptive nuclear strikes to protect itself. The law also reinforces that their nuclear status is irreversible. Kim Jong Un also stated that there will be no bargaining over their nuclear weapons.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have modified their immediate goals to try to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. However, with the dynamic Ukraine offensive in the east, Russian military leaders are having problems responding and fighting a two front war.

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Russian forces in eastern Ukraine have had a very, ugly bad 48 hours.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine in the past 48-72 hours has recovered more territory than Russia was able to capture since the start of their ‘phase 2’ offensive in the Donbas. It is looking like Kupyansk will soon be liberated - heavily damaging Russian supply to Izyum and south.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Routine scattered artillery strikes

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russia massed artillery fire north and northeast of Kharkiv in an effort to discourage Ukranian attacks in those area.

The Ukraine attack towards Kupyansk continues at brake neck speed, with some analysts noting excellent combined arms tactics. The latest news indicate that Ukraine forces have reached the outskirts of Kupyansk. At minimum, Ukrainian forces are now able to shell critical Russian supply lines to Izyum in the area. Russian Air Force has been noticeably ineffective in blunting the current Ukrainian advances in the area.
Ukrainian forces have also been successfully widening the salient. This evident in the Ukrainian military reportedly liberating Senkove village (also on the Donets River) about 30-40 km south of Kupyansk.

To the south of the Kupyansk axis, Ukraine has developed a supporting attack directly towards Izyum. Other Ukraine attacks making small gains south of Izyum

Meanwhile, Russian troops again tried to push southward out of the Izyum area and were repelled. With the chaos north of these attacks, it is becoming more unlikely they will continue to launch them and instead turn their attention northward.

I’ve found a couple of maps that depict the Kupyansk offensive that are relatively accurate, given the fog of war, based on best information available open sourced.

The first link shows the original front and the initial break out I noted yesterday.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcJsi8tWYAYLw7j?format=jpg&name=large

The next link depicts estimated Ukrainian gains over the past 24 hours, depicting the widening of the salient and the situation at Kypyansk.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcNBA-SWYAU2mz1?format=jpg&name=large

Donetsk Oblast ——
Fighting continues around Bakhmut with no Russian gains. Russian artillery and ground attacks also targeted the Avdiivka area north of Donetsk.

Crimean Front ——
Overnight, Ukrainian aviation conducted 20 air strikes, shot down Ka-52 helicopter in support of the Kherson offensive.

Ukraine continues to press the attacks on the three axis I noted yesterday. OPSEC covers much, but agglomeration of reports indicates they continue to retake ground.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR, except explosions reported over Belgorod and region, reportedly one of the missiles launched towards Kharkiv exploded.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

Ammunition / logistical sites hit —
Ongoing
Explosions reported from a logistic site in Kakhovka, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast
Russian barges were blown up in Hola Prystan, Kherson Oblast

OUTLOOK ——
Ukraine is kicking tail and taking names in its drive toward Kypyansk. The Ukraine military staff is claiming that Kypyansk will be liberated within the next 72 hours, and that looks very feasible at this time. Russian’s with a significant river to their back I think will be hard pressed to try to make a stand in the city (unlike Ukraine would) and will continue to try to get across the river ASAP. These are not the best trained soldiers in the world and they are receiving an a$$ kicking.

The offensive has also exposed a lot of the Russian rear area to direct attacks. This has reportedly (propaganda alert) spread fear in the Russian logistical units and sites.

I expect Kypyansk to be liberated soon. I also expect that after that occurs, the attacks will sweep southwards towards Izyum to link up with the secondary attacks. With the Donets River helping to secure their left flank, they could really maul the Russians. Tertiary attacks south of Izyum will only make matters worse for the Russians.

I’m also watching for Ukranian attacks of opportunity further north as Russia tries to divert troops south, Ukraine forces closer to Kharkiv will get a chance to exploit weaknesses too.

I think with the success in the east, Ukraine will continue to make Kherson a meat grinder for Russia and will be poised to take advantage of the confusion of the Russian staff trying to decide which Ukrainian offensive will receive priority support. Ukraine is operating a tighter OODA loop than Russia and I doubt that Russia can quickly respond to a now two front war. Russia military has essentially seized up. The new forces Russia has conscripted entering the theater are too poorly trined, and equipped to make any difference in the current situation.

ONE LAST NOTE - Ukraine conducted several attacks in the breakout area several weeks ago. One could assume that they were recon in force operations to test those portion for the Russian defenses. They found a weakness and exploited. I’m noting similar probing attacks elsewhere in eastern Ukraine, potentially indicating that they are looking to duplicate a similar, successful attack (s).

Black Swans -

Weather forecasters are increasingly predicting a third season of La Niña weather conditions, which are to blame for drought in the Western hemisphere.

OBSERVATION - This would be the third time La Niña conditions three-peat; the last two being 1973-1976 and 1998-2001. Current Global droughts will be expected to continue and potentially worsen, threatening even more of the food supply chain. Additional impacts will be to hydropower production decreases due to lower river flows.

Fast and furious

Globalism / Great Reset -

A study published at -

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6613697/

Indicates that among the bugs, the GGR wants us to eat, there is a “transmission of parasitic diseases to humans and animals,” issue.

OBSERVATION - The GGR powers that be have no concern about the safety of the bug food they want us peons to eat - as they will still engorge themselves with the finest meats still available.

Wuhan virus -

Several large U.S. companies are rolling back COVID-19 vaccine mandates but staying mum during the process, reports Axios.
Goldman Sachs lifted vaccination requirements everywhere but New York City this week while JPMorgan & Chase Co. said in March that it would start hiring unvaccinated individuals again. Cisco in June stopped requiring vaccination for “office entry, travel, event attendance, or visiting customers, partners, and other third parties.”
“[Companies] decided that the rationale for [mandates] had become weak enough that they don’t want to continue,” Jeff Levin-Scherz, population health leader at Willis Towers Watson, told the news outlet.

OBSERVATION - The integrity of these companies has already been damaged now that the CDC has backtracked on so many of the claims it made that formed the basis for these mandates in the first place.

Economy -

The U.S. army is recommending soldiers apply for SNAP benefits, also known as food stamps, to help cover their rising costs from inflation. The U.S. Army cites the higher prices on a range of goods because of inflation in its recently released official guidance.
“With inflation affecting everything from gas prices to groceries to rent, some Soldiers and their families are finding it harder to get by on the budgets they’ve set and used before,” the guidance written by Sergeant Major of the Army Michael A. Grinston reads. “Soldiers of all ranks can seek guidance, assistance, and advice through the Army’s Financial Readiness Program.”
“Based on the Pentagon’s own data, 24 percent of enlisted personnel are food insecure,” said Mackenzie Eaglen, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. “While food stamps are a Band-Aid, they’re also an admission that basic pay for enlisted troops and their families is too low—further exacerbated by unyielding inflation causing paychecks to shrink more.”

OBSERVATION - This has been a persistent problem going as fa back as the Vietnam War era. Commissaries not holding prices do and on base housing is inadequate.

Going to rebound and affect the US as well, India restricted some rice exports and placed levies on others, exacerbating a world already squeezed by a food crisis.
Bloomberg reported India imposed a 20% duty on white and brown rice exports and banned shipments of broke rice — parboiled and basmati rice were excluded from the export duty and/or trade restrictions. The new curbs apply to about 60% of India’s rice exports and go into effect Friday.

OBSERVATION - My recent trip back to Kalifonia i noted that the vast rice fields in the Sacramento region were dry and unplanted. Buy your rice now.

CW2/Domestic violence -

The international organization responsible for creating merchant category codes for credit card purchases has given its approval to establish one for transactions made at gun stores. The International Organization for Standardization’s Registration and Maintenance Management Group met on Wednesday to discuss a request made by Amalgamated Bank to set up such a code.
“Considering the application met all the criteria from ISO 18245 and no material arguments pertaining to the approval criteria outlined in the ISO 18245 standard to reject the code were made, SC9 leadership has approved this MCC application in order to comply with the standard,” the ISO said in a statement provided by Maria Lazarte, the organization’s team leader for media and engagement.
That decision came less than a week after New York Attorney General Letitia James and California Attorney General Rob Bonta sent a letter to chief executives at American Express, Mastercard and Visa, urging them to support a merchant category code.

OBSERVATION - Noted yesterday that the left will coerce willing businesses to do their dirty work. Saw this with the wuhan jab mandates. This move sets up a tracking system that can be used as a form of a registry that can be used by govt to identify gun/ammo owners.

More polling out there indicating that the general public is anticipating a civil war in growing numbers.

POLITICAL FRONT -

RUMINT - file also under CW2. Rumors that over 35 Trump supporters have been raided by the FBI as part of the J6 investigations. According to attorney Harmeet Dhillon on with Tucker Carlson show implied that that up to 50 Trump supporters had their homes raided or received.

OBSERVATION - If true, then the govt’s assault on americans has stepped it up as the midterms approach.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have modified their immediate goals to try to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. Russia is also working to redeploy forces to face an anticipated Ukraninan offensive to retake Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts

********
It was another bad, terrible, bad day for Russia in Ukraine.

RUMINT -
Silence from the Kremlin, but prime time political commentators as well as Russian milbloggers are screaming that Russian forces hav been routed in Kharkiv. This could be a foundation for a political push back against Putin. It was rumored that he personally was directing the war effort, bypassing his general staff.

Russian Personnel Issues -
As at 10 September Russian senior officer losses
- 3 Admirals, 37 Generals, 2 Colonels, 1 Lt Colonel & 150 FSB officers arrested/fired
- 12 Generals KIA
- 1 General captured
- 56 Colonels KIA (+1)
- 103 Lt Colonels KIA (+2)
- 11 Navy Captains

- One of the recent volunteer units put together and recently deployed to the Kharkiv region - the 3d Armor Corps - has essentially been decimated by the Ukraine offensive, with reports of equipment abandonment enmass and large numbers of POWs.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

RUMINT -
Rumors floating that Ukrainian forces have captured a Russian Lieutenant General.
Images closely resembling Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi, commander of the Russian Federation’s (RF) Group of Forces West, appeared on Ukrainian social media, and then on independent news platforms on Wednesday, September 7. Yet to be confirmed.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Incredible progress made by Ukranian forces in Kharkiv Oblast.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Routine scattered artillery strikes

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More Russian artillery fire along the LOC northeast of Kharkiv. However, the big play is the Izyum region.

The shock offensive in the Kharkiv Oblast has left analysts stunned. It’s defying even the most optimistic of expectations. Russian lines in Kharkiv are reportedly collapsing at a rate that Ukraine didn’t expect. Highly mobile Ukrainian forces are moving astonishingly quick, but the Russian lines are collapsing faster than they can move.

Ukraine has liberated the critical transportation hub of Kupiansk and are pushing northeast toward Velyski Burluk. Meanwhile the main attack is directed south towards Izyum, crashing through Russian rear areas and apparently instilling panic in Russian forces.
Ukranian forces are attacking along a front south of Izyum northwards towards the city.

Reportedly last night, Russian units received orders to withdraw from their positions around Izyum. Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops have reached the city from the north.

More unconfirmed reports that Russian forces are fleeing other cities/towns in the region including Svyatohirs’k and Lyman (Lyman is another vital railway city. It was seized by Russian Armed Forces on May 27th). A Russian telegram account is claiming that Russian forces have left Svatove, too, located east of Kupiansk.

Reports showing considerable amounts of vehicles and equipment being abandoned. One particularly humorous video released on social media shows a Russian tank with soldiers on top speeding down a road when it encounters a Ukranian force, causing some of the riding soldiers to fall off. The tank continues at max speed and takes a corner too fast, slamming into a 3-4 foot diameter tree.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces continued to assault Bakhmut and surrounding town, with no success. Same goes for Russian attacks northeast of Donetsk.

Crimean Front ——
Minor gains reported along the three axis of advance being used by Ukraine.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

Ammunition / logistical sites hit —
Russian base destroyed in Polohy, Zaporizhzhia region
Missile strikes reported in Vovchansk, in Russia occupied Kharkiv Oblast

OUTLOOK ——
Things are developing faster than many can keep up with. If the reports are confirmed, much of the Russian presence in Kharkiv Oblast has or is in the process of collapsing. However, much is still covered with the fog of war concerning the timing and actual location being liberated by the Ukraine army. The following link has a map that attempts to consolidate the rapid changes in the conflict to date.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcPmZLjXkAE_AoY?format=jpg&name=360x360

Note - Dispositions of forces is estimated and not solid, but gives a general idea of what’s happening.

Some are raising concerns that Ukraine may fall into the same trap Russia did by over extending its logistic train. That is valid, however, the conditions are not the same given that Russia is in no position to exploit the extended supply lines (total cluster in the command rooms of Russian generals at the moment) and Ukraine has internal supply lines - much easier to adjust too.

Near term, I expect Izyum to be retaken by Ukraine very soon. High possibility that areas further away, such as Lyman and even Svatove area can be retaken. With its focus on stopping the announced Ukraine offensive in Kherson, Russia just doesn’t have the forces available to respond to the Kharkiv region - now made even more difficult with the loss of key roads and rail networks to get those forces into play. Russia has been forced to go back to square one in many instances.

Black Swans - The state of New York declared a state of emergency Friday over the continued spread of polio. New York Governor Kathy Hochul made the declaration Friday, after multiple counties in the state discovered traces of the virus in wastewater. One case of polio has been reported in a man in July who got infected in a country where oral vaccines are prevalent, based on upon identification of the strain found infecting him.. Oral vaccines are banned in the US.

OBSERVATION - Made poplar by the wuhan scam, viruses in poop are not a solid indicator. When one considers the volume of sewage and the equivalent volume of ‘infected’ waste necessary to permit discovery , the scale of the problem is vague - particularly when only one case is present.

21st remembrance of the attacks of 9/11 - never forget.

Globalism / Great Reset -

A study published at -

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6613697/

Indicates that among the bugs, the GGR wants us to eat, there is a “transmission of parasitic diseases to humans and animals,” issue.

OBSERVATION - The GGR powers that be have no concern about the safety of the bug food they want us peons to eat - as they will still engorge themselves with the finest meats still available.

Wuhan virus -

Three hospitals in California face lawsuits alleging they treated patients with the controversial antiviral drug remdesivir without receiving informed consent, using a protocol which two attorneys allege led to wrongful death.
The lawsuit references a study found in the New England Journal of Medicine in which a safety board found it to be the least effective and deadliest drug in the trial before it was suspended after 53 percent of the Ebola patients who took the drug died.
The National Institute of Health (NIH) has said it’s the only drug approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to treat COVID-19.

“A patient comes to the hospital often for a problem unrelated to COVID-19,” the lawsuit says. “They are told they have COVID-19 or ‘COVID pneumonia.’”
From there, they are separated from loved ones and placed in a room where they are told remdesivir is the only option, the lawsuit says. “Their phone and the signaling instrument for the nurse are typically placed beyond their reach,” the lawsuit alleges.
The patients are also kept malnourished, and eventually intubated, the lawsuit states, where the patient then dies.
“It takes a ‘protocol patient’ about nine days to die on average,” the lawsuit states.
The lawsuit goes on to address federal financial incentives the hospital gets for each step in the protocol.

OBSERVATION - This lawsuit could open the flood gates for further actions. Those who’ve followed how the medical community applied wuhan protocols will quickly recognize the actions taken by the hospital to force remdesvir on patients.

Economy -

In between reports, mood is still very negative and inclined towards a recession.

Invasion of Illegals -

Mayors of DC and Chicago getting heat for their handling of the crisis of a few busses of illegals imported from Texas.

Biden / Harris watch -

Biden on vacation AGAIN and Harris continues with word salads.

China -

China continues daily air and ship incursions into Taiwanese space.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - With the defeat of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, its ability to sustain its offensive to capture the Donbas region is in jeopardy. Retreat of Russian forces have reversed 5 months worth of effort and resulted in huge losses of equipment.

********
It was another bad, terrible, bad day for Russia in Ukraine.

Russian defense ministry spokesman ws forced to go on air to report that Russian forces were “repositioning” and not getting the snot kicked out of them.

Russian occupation administration in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region calling for a full evacuation. “Our army is doing all it can” but admits it can’t stop Ukraine. Stunning defeat in towns and villages where Russia told local collaborators it was there to stay.

RUMINT -
Putin intends to “exterminate” everyone responsible for the catastrophic rout of the Russian army in Kharkiv region. Not certain if the remark is directed to his military leadership or Ukraine.

Logistics -
- Very rough estimate of Russian equipment losses in Kharkiv are visually confirmed to have lost to captured or destroyed an equivalent of 27 companies or 7 battalions. These numbers are thought to be on the low side.
- Additional reports of a substantial number of armored vehicles captured in Izyum from a logistical base.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian authorities in the Kherson Oblast region are restricting movements of men for further mobilization,

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal but are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum. Ukrainian forces have pushed through Izium already. Videos show Russians abandoned tons of armor, vehicles, munitions and other items in their haste to flee the Ukranian forces.

So far Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 (some are putting the number closer to 5000) square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all operations since April.

Of note also, it is believed that the main attack used the NATO equivalent of 5 division sized elements - at full strength. Also, a lot of press out there regarding the US involvement in providing increased intelligence and planning support for the offensive.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Operation tempo continues to be very high and the situation is changing moment by moment.

Ukrainian offensive continues with operations to clean up pockets of Russian units bypassed and or unable to flee. This is slowing operations down, however Russian retreat from the Kharkiv region continues to increase. Ukrainian forces are making gains throughout the sector.

Reports that Russian forces are retreating back into Russia from the contested areas north of Kharkiv. Russian Forces have also reportedly left Vovchans’k, Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukraine forces are in the process of securing Izyum as forces converge from both the north and south.

Lysychansk and Severodonetsk have been reportedly reached by Ukrainian Armed Forces. Rubizhne are just now reporting Ukainian forces in the center of the city, flying Ukrainian flags. Lyman has been abandoned by Russian forces.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian shelling remains intensive north and west of Donetsk at times and towards Bakhmut, but was far more sporadic in most other impacted regions.

Rumors yesterday that Ukrainian Army attacked the Donetsk Airport. Rumors were found to be false.

Crimean Front ——
Ukrainian forces continued to gain ground along the central axis of advance. Ukrainian aviation conducted 23 air strikes at Russian forces during the day. Russian Su-25, Su-34 planes, 1 Ka-52 helicopter, 2 drones and one missile were shot down.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian army launched 2 cruise missiles at Dnipro district overnight, 1 was shot down by air defense, another hit industrial enterprise. Analysts have noted that these air launched missile strikes have been on a significant decline, some think due to missile shortages, others due to inability to keep aircraft repaired and flying.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

Ammunition / logistical sites hit —
Missile strike near Razdolne village in the Kherson region

OUTLOOK ——
Ukraine should be wrapping up the consolidation of liberated territories within the next few days. With effort being directed north of Kharkiv as well as the northern margin of the Donbas operation, Russia will lose considerably more territory.

The immensity of the route is still being illustrated by the vast quantities of armor and vehicles abandoned in good working conditions (that is for Russian forces). the flood of Russian troops headed east has been clogged up by Ukrainian Russia collaborators. Non military have been held back at the borders.

Ukraine will continue to advance on the Kherson front, taking advantage of coordination with partisans to strike Russian logistic, command posts and troop concentrations.

Russia has been essentially paralyzed by the events of the past few days. They lack reserve forces to stem the offense in the east - hoping to run far enough away to establish some kind of defensive line. This ‘run away’ plan is partially practical as it will take time for Ukraine to consolidate the massive gains it has made.

The Russian offensive to capture the Donbas is essentially dead. Attacks will continue towards Bakhmut and north out of Donetsk, but will be lacking even more men and equipment now that the northern supply lines have been cut off.

Russia is also frozen in place on the Kherson front. This has direct strategic threats to Crimea and Russia can ill afford to weaken the force build up there (which resulted in the weak Kharkiv region forces) else the Ukrainian army could easily duplicate the success there.

Of particular note - Russian air power has been ineffective in both tactical ground support as well as stratigic strikes with cruse missiles. The Russian Black Sea fleet has been relegated to floating around trying to stay out of range of Ukrainian missiles with the threat that we monitored early on - of an amphibious assault on the Odessa region now no longer a concern.

Europe / NATO General -

Albania says it has suffered a second cyber attack from Iran

See Turkey as tensions rise with Greece.

Iran -

Albania says it has suffered a second cyber attack from Iran

Turkey -

Tensions between Turkey and Greece have increased more with Turkish allegations that Greece locked
radars linked to S-300 missiles locking on to Turkish F-16s and harassment fire against a Turkish operated cargo ship.

Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays will be later reporting in the day for an indefinite period

Globalism / Great Reset -

CEO of GnS Economics Tuomas Malinen forecasts the imminent collapse of the European economy. Focusing on the ill-advised sanctions against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine and the shutting down of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, he reports that “[m]any households and corporations are seeing their energy prices multiply by 10, or more, across the continent.” In the face of a massive spike in energy prices, skyrocketing inflation, the raising of interest rates, the crushing effect on asset markets and the European banking sector, and the explosion of a full-blown debt crisis, Malinen predicts the unraveling of the Eurozone and the possible collapse of the global financial system.

OBSERVATION - The current transjectory of the EU in the face of the oncoming energy crisis has left countries scrambling to try to stave it off and survive through the winter. Prospects are not looking too good. The potential chaos is what leftists want to use to then sweep in as the saviors of the world to instill the final pieces of the GGR take over. Germany seems to be in the most precarious position and is the country to watch. If it falls, the domino effect will ensue.

MORE RELATED - As Germany’s electricity and natural gas prices soar, a wave of companies – some having a long tradition – are filing insolvency. Toilet paper maker Hakle has filed for insolvency, citing “increased energy costs”. Others include shoe retailer Görtz, who cite low sales as consumers cut back on their discretionary spending, and automobile supplier Dr. Schneider. Steel producer ArcelorMittal in Hamburg und Bremen are also following.
“With a tenfold increase in gas and electricity prices, which we had to accept within a few months, we are no longer competitive in a market that is 25% supplied by imports. We see an urgent need for political action to get energy prices under control immediately,” said Reiner Blaschek, CEO of ArcelorMittal Germany (Financial Market World).
Another industry sector facing extreme hardship is the bakery industry, which relies heavily of affordable energy. According to Blackout News: “For bakeries, the energy crisis is now worse than the Corona pandemic, according to industry sources. ‘We have the problem as a micro baker that we have to adjust our prices to the raw material and energy prices, of course, which also burdens the customer, if he is also a bit tighter on cash,’ says an affected baker from Heilbronn.”
One baker in our local area has seen his monthly gas bills go from 3000 euros earlier this year to 11,000 euros!

OBSERVATION - This is a rolling snowball - one which the only short term solution is Germany biting the bullet and firing up coal generators. Most likely they don’t have the common sense to do so. As Ive noted before, the fall and end of the year have a number of social and economic vectors converging in this time frame - all seemingly harbingers of something wicked this way coming.

Economy -

Congress is focusing on a continuing resolution to prevent the county from shutting down on September 30th. But the path is anything but clear. One major sticking point is Schumer, D-N.Y., commitment to pass the oil and gas permitting bill by the end of September as part of a deal with Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. In exchange for passing the bill, Schumer secured Manchin’s support for the White House’s $739 billion climate change and tax hike package. Democrats are more than willing to stick their knives in Manchin’s back.

Indicators are not looking good as US freight railroads will reduce their services starting Monday after two of the country’s largest rail unions failed to agree on a new contract this week, the Journal of Commerce reported.
The railroads began notifying customers about the service cuts, which are taking place ahead of a possible strike on Sept. 17, the publication said, citing a customer advisory from Norfolk Southern Corp. The Association of American Railroads confirmed in a statement Friday that six Class I freight railroads will begin to take steps to “manage and secure” shipments of some hazardous or sensitive materials from Monday.

OBSERVATION - This can well be a high speed train wreck if the unions decide to go through with a strike.

Biden / Harris watch -

Biden’s 9/11 speech at the Pentagon Sunday was a disgusting bloating pile of crap. biden said that the “greatest lesson of September 11” was that we should not be unkind to muslims.

CW2/Domestic violence -

UPS has stepped up its anti-gun campaign by requiring online sellers to ship an average of 50 handguns daily to use its 2nd Day Air service.
Sellers who do not ship at least 350 handguns a week risk losing their shipping accounts. Under the new agreement, UPS is only required to give customers a ten-day notice before cutting them off from the shipping service. The volume necessary means that most online retailers and manufacturers are now cut off from shipping guns through the carrier unless the handgun is shipped using the expensive Next Day Air service.
The notice was sent to UPS customers that deal in firearms. UPS has been under pressure from anti-gun groups and politicians to stop doing business with the gun industry. This new move appears to be a way that UPS can cut ties to most of the industry without jeopardizing its major accounts.
The letter also references updating its policies to be in line with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and state regulations. This reference most likely refers to new rules surrounding privately manufactured firearms (PMF). But UPS goes much further than required by law.

OBSERVATION - Once again, private industry is doing the dirty work of the left. This may turn around and bite them later.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - With the route Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, its ability to sustain its offensive to capture the Donbas region is in jeopardy. Retreat of Russian forces have reversed 5 months worth of effort and resulted in huge losses of equipment.

********

Russian announced it is repositioning forces east of the Oskil River, apparently in hopes that they can delay Ukraine crossing /pursuit across the river.

On his Telegram, Kremlin chief propagandist, Soloviev, called for the execution of Russian commanders who allowed the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region

Chechnya’s Kadyrov publishes a rambling voice memo criticizing the Russian army for retreating and suggesting Putin may not be fully aware of the situation on the ground. “Mistakes were made. I think they’ll draw conclusions”

RUMINT - ——
Putin is trying to shape the information cycle to convict the Russian General staff for the failure in Kharkiv. Some think he is trying to do so before he falls out a window.

Currently there are media rumors saying Moscow is preparing to issue a formal declaration of war, as opposed to a current limited “special operation” - which would mean greater mobilization across armed forces branches and society.

Since early in the summer, preparations were being made to hold referendums on the official annexation of two regions in Ukraine unofficially known as the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, along with much of the Kharkiv region. The annexations would be proclaimed to be “indefinite.” The tentative date for the votes was planned for November 4th, Russia’s “Unity Day.” But now, sources close to the Kremlin say that those plans have been iced and there is no talk of a vote in November anymore, assuming it will ever happen at all.

Logistics -
- It is becoming increasingly evident that Russia forces abandoned tanks and armored vehicles that will take years for Russia to replace.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia has just fired Lt. General Berdnikov, its commander of the western military district. He’s been in post for 15 days.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine is restoring control over state border with Russian Federation in Kharkiv region west to Oskol river. Clean up operations are also continuing as Ukraine forces continue to chase Russians fleeing Izyum.

Large parts of Ukraine in blackouts including Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv and Poltava after Russian cruise missile strikes on thermal power plants and stations on Sunday evening. Power was restored in many communities within hours.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Widely scattered artillery attacks.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Operation tempo continues to be very high and the situation is changing moment by moment.

Russian forces appear to have withdrawn across the Russian border under pressure in the areas north - northeast of Kharkiv. This will eventually permit Ukranian artillery to target Bolgorod area military facilities.

Ukraine forces continue to clear out the Izyum pocket. At this stage the region is fully under Ukraine control, except for some pockets of resistance. Ukraine forces are chasing Russian units eastward.

Endless que of cars are leaving the parts of the Luhansk region that border the Kharkiv region. It is believed that these are Russian sympathizers and collaborators trying to flee before being faced with arrest for their actions.

Donetsk Oblast ——
More Russian artillery and ground assaults in the vicinity of Bakhmut with no gains on the ground. Overall, action along the LOC is down.

Crimean Front ——
Spokesperson of Operation Command South confirmed 5 settlements and 500 km, liberated in Kherson region in last 2 weeks: Vysokopillia, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Myrolyubivka and Sukhyi Stavok.

There are rumors that some Russian units at Kherson frontline are negotiating surrendering their weapons.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian army conducted 18 missile strikes, 39 air strikes at civilian and military objects across Ukraine. Damage in over 30 settlements, among them: Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, Dnipro, Pavlohrad, Velykomykhailivka. Russian army conducted missile strike at Kharkiv Power Plant.

Russian Territory -—
Governor of Belgorod region reports Logachevka border post was shelled.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

Ammunition / logistical sites hit —
Explosions audible in Kherson.

OUTLOOK ——

Official confirmation from the General Staff that Russian units are leaving Svatove towards Luhansk direction. Ukrainian forces have already clamped the railway in Vovchansk. The only other rail entry outside Crimea is Logachevka which leads to liberated Kupiansk Ukraine.
Meaning -
Which means whatever Russian armor or mechanized units can only escape east and will likely have no additional fuel to do so. Northern Luhansk could soon be in play as a result of the melt down of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russians are in a very precarious place in northern Ukraine, especially after losing a massive amount of equipment. We’ll probably see them try to hold the east bank of the Oskil river, but the Ukrainians have the initiative right now.

To continue the attack across the Oskil river to now is the dilemma that Ukraine has to quickly decide. Has several major components to the decision
First - This area was largely rear area for the Russians - occupied mostly by supply types, hardly the dig in and fight types
Second - The Russian forces fleeing there from Kharkiv left most of their armor behind and likely only have what they could carry on their backs (or with them on what ever other vehicle they could get on. After getting the snot kicked out of them, they probably have very little fight left in them and are in a state of disarray.
Third -Russia has no stratigic reserve to bring into play in such short notice
Fourth - Supply lines into the east of Oskil region are tenuous at best.
Finally - For Ukraine, they may face an over extended supply line and risk from Russian counter attacks. However given the state of their forces in the region - that risk is currently minimal.

Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays will be later reporting for an indefinite period

Globalism / Great Reset -

On August 31, the California State Senate passed a bill that would allow courts in California to take custody of minors from out of state who come to the Golden State seeking gender transition surgeries and cross-sex hormones, even if these actions go against the wishes of the minors’ parents.
Meanwhile, a host of legal experts have expressed grave concerns about the bill’s legality and consequences for children and parental rights.
“SB 107 is one of the gravest threats to parental rights in recent years,” said Jonathan Keller, president of California Family Council. “If Governor Newsom foolishly signs this measure, California should brace for lawsuits. Other states’ attorneys general will not sit idly by as California steals children from parents who don’t want them sterilized with these trans-treatments.”

OBSERVATION - Why is this listed here - because kalifornia is a beta test of what the GGR wants to put in police globally. They want to dismantle the family unit and this is one way of doing so. Ubergoverment wants to control all children be it through the evil of the transgenderism, wuhan vaccination, MAGA extremism, etc.

Wuhan virus -

New Zealand will be retiring its COVID-19 traffic light system and significantly scaling down COVID restrictions from Sept. 13 so Kiwis could “move forward with certainty,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced.
“It’s time to safely turn the page on our COVID-19 management and live without the extraordinary measures we have previously used,”
New Zealand will be retiring its COVID-19 traffic light system and significantly scaling down COVID restrictions from Sept. 13 so Kiwis could “move forward with certainty,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced.
“It’s time to safely turn the page on our COVID-19 management and live without the extraordinary measures we have previously used,” Ardern said, calling it a “milestone.”

OBSERVATION - NZ was one of the hardest core wuhan tyrannies of the plandemic. Though the country is letting its restriction drop, the question is how successful were they in sucking the will out of the sheeple for the next round of what ever ‘emergency’ pops up.

Economy -

Yellen told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union” that gas prices could rise due to the European Union largely halting Russian oil purchases this winter and banning provision of services that allow Russia to ship oil by tanker.
“It is possible that that could cause a spike in oil prices,” Yellen said.
But Yellen noted a western price cap proposal was designed to balance curbing Russian oil revenues helping fund its war in Ukraine, while maintaining some access to Russian oil to “hold down global oil prices.”
“So I believe this is something that can be essential,” she said. “And it’s something that we’re trying to put in place to avoid a future spike in oil prices.”

OBSERVATION - It doesn’t support the globalist agenda to have prices lowered.

The world’s second largest appliance manufacturer, Electrolux, announced a collapse of corporate earnings -the result of the western alliance economic contraction- leading to major cost cutting and future incentive programs.

OBSERVATION - another key precursor to a recession.

Invasion of Illegals -

A new report indicates there has been a dramatic shift in the demographics of the illegal immigrants crossing the border, as agents from the Border Patrol process people from over 115 countries at bustling crossing locations – with hardly any of them being Mexicans.
An Associated Press analysis documents agents processing migrants trying to cross the border in Yuma, Arizona as well as Eagle Pass, Texas – two of the busiest crossings.
“Migrants from at least 115 countries have been stopped here in the last year, but that may be less striking than what’s missing: Mexicans are virtually absent,” they write.

OBSERVATION - This is an invasion, pure and simple.

Chuck Todd, host of NBC’s “Meet the Press,” asked Vice President Kamala Harris in recorded interview on Friday: “Since we’re here in Texas, I want to ask you about the border. Would you call the border secure?”
Harris said it was.

OBSERVATION - Record seizures of illegal drugs - Meth, cocaine and fenityol as well as human trafficking - yep sounds pretty secure to her.

POLITICAL FRONT -

According to the New York Times, about 40 subpoenas have been issued seeking information about the 2020 election and Capitol riot. Among those subpoenaed were top Trump advisers Boris Epshteyn and Mike Roman, who reportedly had their phones seized as evidence.
Many other Trump aides and confidantes close to the 45th president both in and out of the White House were also subpoenaed, including Dan Scavino, his former social media director.

OBSERVATION - DoJ/FBI actions are clearly designed to influence the midterms as well as tarnish Trump and any 2024 president run.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

On the 21st anniversary of 9/11, CBS News has confirmed that military prosecutors and attorneys for five defendants charged for their roles in the attacks are negotiating potential plea deals that could take the death penalty off the table and keep the detention camp at the military base in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, open for the foreseeable future. Their cases have stalled over access to CIA evidence and, more recently, delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The chief defendant is Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the self-described architect of 9/11. The other four defendants are Ramzi Binalshibh, Mustafa Ahmed al-Hawsawi, Walid bin Attash and Ammar al-Baluchi.

OBSERVATION - Not a coincidence this information came out on 9/11. They should hav been off’d years ago.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
Another terrible , bad day for Russia as public opinion formed by the Russian talking heads and brave politicians turn on Putin.

RUMINT -
Reports that Putin has retreated to his Sochi mansion and cancelled all his meetings with his military staff.

Logistics -
- There are reports via Forbes that in recent days over $600 million worth of Russian equipment has been destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
- Debris of Iranian Shahed-136 drone #M214, rebranded as Geran-2 were found in Kupyansk district. First direct evidence of Russian use of Iranian drones.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- the 1st guards tank army has after the heavy losses from the first phase of the invasion and being decimated in the Kharkiv offensive is now reportedly not much more than a battalion

- The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade has lost more than 85% of its personnel and is now refusing to return to combat

- Unconfirmed reports that the Russian military command may be suspending the deployment of newly formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian losses and overall degraded morale.

- The Russian military command said in a SM post that “The current situation in the theatre of operations and distrust of the higher command forced a large number of volunteers to categorically refuse the prospect of service in combat conditions,”.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

RUMINT -
Unconfirmed, but am now hearing that Ukraine has captured “more than one” Russian general

Unconfirmed: the Russians have surrendered on both sides of the Dnipr river in Kherson.

Further RUMINT that Ukraine massing forces to strike toward Mariupol.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The Ukraine army continues mopping up Kharkiv Oblast and appears to be probing into Luhansk Oblast. The Kherson offensive continues at a methodological pace.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Widely scattered artillery attacks.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Operation tempo continues to be very high and the situation is changing moment by moment. Ukraine continues to consolidate its gains while it also continues to pressure Russian forces fleeing east.

Combat footage taken in Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast, on September 11 confirms that Ukrainian troops have retaken ground in Luhansk Oblast.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults on various settlements around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Attacks that have no meaningful chance of securing operationally significant, let alone decisive, gains now that Izyum has been liberated

Crimean Front ——
OSINT sources indicate from satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River. Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City.

Ukraine’s Kakhovka Operational Group announced that Ukrainian forces have penetrated the front line at depths between 4 and 12km in unspecified areas, amounting to over 500 square kilometers of liberated territory. The Kakhovka Group stated that Ukrainian troops have liberated 13 settlements,

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
Governor of Belgorod region of Russia urges citizens in Zhuravlyovka and Nekhoteyevka villages on the border with Kharkiv region to evacuate.

2 electrical power pylons were blown up at railway road in Bryansk region of Russia

Partisan Resistance ——
Partisan activity continues to increase in all the occupied regions

Ammunition / logistical sites hit —
Long range Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets near Mariupol were reported yesterday
Explosions from missile strikes reported near Kherson

OUTLOOK ——
Still waiting to see if Ukraine is going to opt to press its attacks further east into northern Luhansk Oblast. Ukraine has the initiative and advantage. Such an attack could be swung southwards. I think the greater chance is the Kherson offensive firing up. Progress was made along the central axis of attack.

Russia continues to press its attacks against Bakhmut and Avdiivka, losing more and more forces and equipment. This is evidence of a breakdown in a coherent plan of attack. Capture of these cities - if they even have a chance at this stage - will not serve the war effort except go be a PR ‘win’.

Quick comment on the reported demise of armor some have made of his conflict. Actually it it the demise of the Russian application of armor. Ukraine used the same series of tanks Russia did (T64/72/80) but operated in a combined arms manner like the US - infantry protects the tanks, and the tanks protect the infantry. This combined arms method was further enhanced by the development of a NCO and junior officer corps that enhanced the interoperation. The tank isn’t dead - only the Russian method of employment is.

Iran -

Blinken: An agreement on a nuclear deal now seems unlikely, Iran has taken a step back in negotiations with the P5+1 group

OBSERVATION - Iran never for a moment wanted any agreement on their nuclear production, everything was and is a stalling action

A senior Iranian military commander said Monday that Iran has developed a long-range suicide drone intended to strike major cities along Israel’s Mediterranean coast. Brig. Gen. Kioumars Heydari, who heads the Iranian military’s ground forces, said the Arash-2 drone was specifically designed to attack Tel Aviv and Haifa.

OBSERVATION - I suspect that these drones would be used like the Houthi have used theirs, to attack softer petroleum facilities. Against Tel Aviv and Haifa, they would be more of a terror device with its smaller warhead. Israel is already about to reply a counter laser system to such a threat.

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Large clashes broke out between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces along the border between the two countries on Monday night, according to Azerbaijani and Armenian Defense Ministries. As of Tuesday morning, clashes were ongoing, despite a statement by Russian officials that a ceasefire had been reached.

Both the Armenian and Azerbaijani Armed Forces have reported casualties. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that 49 Armenian soldiers had been killed in the fighting as of Tuesday morning. Three Armenian civilians have also reportedly been injured by the shelling.

Azerbaijani artillery and UAVs reportedly targeted sites in Vardenis, Goris, Sotk and Jermuk in eastern Armenia overnight, with the Armenian Defense Ministry stating on Tuesday morning that strikes continued to target those military and civilian infrastructure in those areas and in Ishkhanasar and Kapan.

Armenian PM Pashinyan has held a phone call with Russian President Putin to discuss the escalation tonight between his country and Azerbaijan.

Russian Foreign Ministry says it has mediated ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan, starting 9am. Also expressed deeply concern over situation

On Tuesday morning, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry claimed that the Armenians were attempting to delay the signing of a peace agreement between the two countries.

The Azerbaijani APA state-run news agency published an analysis on Tuesday morning calling for Armenia to be “forced to peace” and for a “safe zone” to be created on the border between the two countries. The article additionally claimed that Armenian forces remained in Nagorno-Karabakh region despite agreements to withdraw.

OBSERVATION - BLUF This fight may develop into a significant regional war. This action taken by the Azeri’s is likely a direct result of the defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine throwing the military into chaos and unable to respond to Armenia calls for help. Russia has stripped its forces around the globe to support its offensive in Ukraine that there are no assist readily available to come to Armenian need. Russia already is in poor standing with Armenians because of lack of peace keeping from earlier instances. As the attacks are on Armenian territory and not the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh is making the situation even more dangerous for the region.
Russia supports Armenia - and direct intervention may bring them into conflict with Turkish forces and potential NATO involvement. Iran and Azeris haven’t been getting along too well and Iran may be drawn into the conflict as they nearly were during the last conflict.

World events are hitting at a rate that I’m having trouble keeping up with, let alone analyze for future trends and impacts.

Globalism / Great Reset -

GGR minions have been open about seizing high tech for their use and not the rest of the world.

Wuhan virus -

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has acknowledged publicly for the first time that the agency gave false information about its COVID-19 vaccine safety monitoring.
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the agency’s director, said in a letter made public on Sept. 12 that the CDC did not analyze certain types of adverse event reports at all in 2021, despite the agency previously saying it started in February 2021.
“CDC performed PRR analysis between March 25, 2022, through July 31, 2022,” Walensky said. “CDC also recently addressed a previous statement made to the Epoch Times to clarify PRR were not run between February 26, 2021, to September 30, 2021.”
Walensky’s agency had promised in several documents, starting in early 2021, to perform a type of analysis called Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) on reports submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, which it helps manage. But the agency said in June that it did not perform PRRs. It also said that performing them was “outside th[e] agency’s purview.” Walensky’s new letter, dated Sept. 2 and sent on Sept. 6 to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), shows that Walensky is aware that her agency gave false information.

OBSERVATION - Such a review would have been detrimental to the narrative at the time. Now much wuhan news is off the front burner and CDC is trying to protect their rear ends from a republican lead congress.

The U.S. Navy quietly rolled back an order punishing SEALs who remain unvaccinated due to their religious beliefs, according to recent court documents.
The order, “Trident Order #12,” disqualified SEALs seeking religious exemptions from the COVID-19 vaccine from training, traveling for deployment and conducting other standard business. It was first issued on Sept. 24, 2021 by Vice Chief of Naval Operations Admiral William Lescher, and all special warfare forces were initially expected to come into compliance with the vaccine mandate by mid-October 2021.

OBSERVATION - With recent back tracking by the CDC, increasing evidence of illegal blanket rejections of exemption requests and increasing numbers of studies showing that the jab is more dangerous that wuhan the military has to stage a strategic ‘retreat’ on its policy. The overall attitude by the military was to kick out as many as possible via exemption rejections and weaken the moral of the forces.

Economy -

More than 115,000 rail workers will be legally allowed to strike on Friday.

Some US railroads will start halting crop shipments on Thursday, a day ahead of a potential work stoppage, threatening exports and feed deliveries for livestock, according to Reuters.

Lawmakers are under pressure to avert a rail worker strike as soon as this week that would batter the nation’s economy just before November’s midterm elections. Republican senators introduced a resolution to impose a new contract if negotiations between railroads and unions collapse, while Democrats say they would pass legislation to block a rail shutdown if necessary.

In Tuesday’s White House press briefing, Karine Jean-Pierre failed to provide much reassurance for American citizens or businesses eyeing the looming threat of a rail worker strike that is shaping up to be something of a repeat of the Biden administration’s previous mismanagement of U.S. port backlogs and infant formula shortages.

As Vespa explained on Tuesday morning, potential rail disruption is “another looming economic crisis that could strike hard this week,” one that “could cost the US economy billions and disrupt virtually all commercial and passenger traffic.”

OBSERVATION - The contract stalemate looks to go into nation wide strike. This will cause wide spread disruption of transportation network and ripple down to the consumers eventually. biden paying lip service to ‘plans’ while the congress is ready to pass legislation to stop any strike. IIRC the last strike lasted only about 3 days before congress stepped in. If applied today, those three days could require weeks to sort out the shipping backlog and cost about 2 billion per day.

Bank of America is once again warning of a coming recession jolt after the Federal Reserve pledged to “forcefully” fight record-high inflation, even if means slowing the economy. In a Friday analyst note, strategists led by Michael Hartnett predicted a “fast inflation shock, slow recession shock” as the economy continues to confront surging consumer prices, high household savings, billions in fiscal stimulus and the impact of the war in Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - More warnings that are going unheeded by many.

But, the increase in the food index far outpaced that of overall CPI, rising 0.8% over the month, as the cost of eating food at home index rose 0.7%. Over the last year, the overall food index rose 11.4% - the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report, released Tuesday, showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, increased by 8.3 percent in August when compared to the same month last year and increased 0.1 percent from July.
Many economists had predicted inflation would decline slightly in August. Markets nosedived on the news, with the Dow falling 1,250 points — the most since June of 2020.

The median Consumer Price Index, which reflects only measures in the center of CPI’s prices changes, rose 0.7 percent compared with the prior month, an acceleration from the 0.5 percent increase recorded in June. The unrounded figure of 0.73789 percent is the highest on record, slightly above the previous record of 0.73078 percent set in June.

The median CPI, which excludes all the large changes in either direction and is better predicted by labor market slack, is out and is extremely ugly. A 9.2% annual rate in August, the single highest monthly print in their dataset which starts in 1983 (second highest was in June).

OBSERVATION - Bad news for Americans, even has biden tries to do a victory lap with the “Inflation Reduction Act”. Numbers are a little confusing though, but it is clear that they are not going in the correct direction .

biden has directed withdrawals from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve plunging it to its lowest since 1982. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. emergency crude oil stocks fell 8.4 million barrels last week to 434.1 million, the lowest level since October 1984. According to Bloomberg people familiar with the matter, the US may begin refilling its emergency oil reserve when crude prices fall to around $80 a barrel.

OBSERVATION - Highly doubtful that oil will return to those levels for long given the effort to kill the oil industry in the first place. His pull down of the strategic reserve is a deliberate action to weaken the country in the event of a national emergency.

Biden / Harris watch -

Biden celebrated his “inflation reduction act” with higher inflation and a 1276 point Dow drop.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

An exploding package at Northeastern University sent one to the hospital with light injuries. A second device was found nearby. Motive is still uncertain as I type this.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
Bad days continue for putin.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Still consolidating gains from the blitzkrieg. Ukrainian forces have reportedly crossed the Oskil river northeast of Izyum. This has been confirmed by Russian sources also claiming that Ukrainian forces crossed the Oskil River at Borova.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Widely scattered artillery attacks.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Scattered russian artillery along the northern flank of the Donbas front.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia made some minor gains against Bakhmut and northeast of Donetsk.

Ukraine gaining a foot hold in the Donetsk Oblast via an attack southward towards the occupied town of Polohy. Russian related telegraph messages and Russian milbloggers are concerned that there is a buildup of Ukranian forces in that area that could punch through Russian defenses similar to Kharkiv. The say the front had been stripped to move forces to Kherson defense.
Reportedly in response, Russian forces are racing to reinforce defenses around Tomsk and Polohy to prevent this attack from turning into a breakthrough and into a larger operation. .

Crimean Front ——
Heavy fighting along the central axis of attack in the Kherson front in the Davidiv Brid area. It is being reported that Ukraine is still making gains, though not as spectacularly as in Kharkiv.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
Ukrainian partisans reportedly conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack on September 12 targeting the Russian-appointed rector of Kherson State University, Tetyana Tomilina, at her apartment.

Partisans also reportedly attacked a Russian patrol in Mariupol with explosives as the patrol tried to erase an “Ї” symbol that was painted on a building. “Ї,” a letter found in the Ukrainian but not Russian alphabet, has become a Ukrainian resistance symbol since the invasion began.

Ammunition / logistical sites hit —
Ongoing

OUTLOOK ——
Ukraine will continue to secure the territory liberated and likely to conduct more attacks to the east, exploiting continued Russian confusion. Russian troops are unlikely to be strong enough to prevent further Ukrainian advances along the entire Oskil River because they do not appear to be receiving reinforcements.

Today’s topic is the threat by Russia to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine and/or the west. putin et al have been making threats against the west and Ukraine since before the war started. In part they were directed at keeping NATO from putting boots on the ground in Ukraine. These threats have continued in the context of forbidding western weapons from being used to target Russian territory. Now with the Russian war effort flying apart and on the verge of failing, the threats have come out again.

What would be the purpose of a nuclear strike at this stage of the war? One though is to quickly take Ukraine to its knees to salvage the failed military campaign. Another thought is the ravings of a mad man (putin) to take revenge for the disastrous defeat that is growing. That revenge first upon Ukraine and secondly upon NATO support (most likely Poland).

One standard observation is - any nuclear attack will likely bring direct involvement by NATO and will backfire on Russia in a big manner. It is not in Russia’s best interests to execute the nuclear option. But if they do it will most likely be a tactical nuclear warhead (to minimize global ‘concerns’). Targets could be the Black Sea (threat demonstration) or a major city (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, etc). Yes, such civilian targets cannot be ruled out given the deliberate targeting with conventional weapons of apartment and other civilian features. A strike on a NATO nation world result in immediate European war and Russian getting nuked as well, likely with stratigic nukes.

One last though is would putin’s military follow through with an order. I am on the fence on this one and will need to see how the Kremlin finger pointing plays out. Hopefully the Kremlin will intercept and prevent such an order. However there is a very strong sentiment that Ukrainians are sub human and would support such a strike ( fact some Russian talking heads are openly wondering why Ukraine hasn’t been nuked already).

I’m inclined to believe that at this time, putin and Russian would not be so stupid to drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine. But desperate men will do desperate things to stay in power.

Israel -

Rising threat levels and concern by Israel of terror attacks and Palestinian uprisings as the high holy days of Judaism approach.

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Reports of heavy clashes in a number of regions along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border with reports that Azerbaijani SF have seized an Armenian military outpost. Heavy artillery with UAV coordination has targeted Armenian military targets.

There are reports of negotiations by both sides to try and bring an end to the fighting via a ceasefire, no word on how those talks are going.

OBSERVATION - Azeri’s could be looking at taking the country since Armenia is a small country and a small military that has relied for decades of Russia for protection. That protection has been smashed in Ukraine.

Misc of Note -

Clashes broke out between Kyrgyz and Tajik border guards on their respective borders. Kyrgyzstan claims Tajikistan forces used mortars to target positions. Meetings underway to try and resolve incident.

OBSERVATION - Russia’s iron fist in the past kept these type of incidences under control In this Ukraine war world, Russia is becoming more and more impotent.

Have you stocked up on essential food and supplies yet? If not, why not.

Globalism / Great Reset -

Numerous related post on wuhan and economic items supportive of GGR goals.

Wuhan virus -

The Department of Defense (DoD) has been in “potential noncompliance” with standards for reviewing and communicating denials of religious accommodation requests to the vaccine mandate, the Pentagon’s watchdog wrote to the secretary of defense in a June memo obtained by The Epoch Times.
The June 2 memo by acting Inspector General (IG) Sean W. O’Donnell stated that after reviewing dozens of complaints from service members who were denied religious accommodation, the IG’s office “found a trend of generalized assessments rather than the individualized assessment that is required by Federal law and DoD and Military Service policies.”
The purpose of the memo was to inform the secretary of defense of “potential noncompliance with standards for reviewing and documenting the denial of religious accommodation requests of Service members identified through complaints submitted to the [IG’s] office.”

OBSERVATION - The DoD doesn’t give a rats rear end about complying, period. This was deliberate and directed for the top to demoralize and disrupt the military. Nothing will change with this report until it gets folded in to legal challenges by affected military personnel - probably years down the road.

The city of Seattle and the Seattle Fire Department have agreed to temporarily not terminate firefighters who refuse to comply with the mayor’s vaccine mandate, at least until a hearing on the matter in October.

OBSERVATION - Terminations of key public safety employees as well as military, is a deliberate act to increase chaos - an item that the left desires to impose further controls on the sheeple.

Economy -

Railroad companies and rail worker unions struck a tentative deal to avert a strike, according to the U.S. Labor Department. The deal still has to be approved by Union membership, but also includes a 30 day cooling off period if rejected to permit further negotiations.

OBSERVATION - Train wreck adverted? Wait and see. Potential for it sto rear its heads after midterms if unions reject and more ‘negotiations’ the place.

The Sacramento River Valley is one of the top producers of rice. Half of the crop is exported to Japan and Korea and much of the sushi rice eaten in the United States is grown here. But according to the California Rice Commission, of the 500,000 acres normally produced, only 250,000 will be harvested this year. Some growers were only able to produce 1/4th their average crop.

OBSERVATION - Kalifornia has apparently wasted bonds voted for about 7(?) year ago to build more storage capacity to counter droughts. Nothing has been started. The rice crop is only the tip of the iceberg of the damage to kalifornia crops due to prioritizing fish over crops. BTW, I resided in the Sacramento region for many, many years before being able to escape back home to the Redoubt. Not only will this hit farmers, but all associated businesses and laborers.

Invasion of Illegals -

Using planes, the Florida Governor overnighted hundreds of Mexicans to Martha’s Vineyard. Officials in the vineyard were struggling to ‘assist’ the illegals.

Two busloads of migrants were dropped off by a metro bus stop near Vice President Kamala Harris’s residence in the Naval Observatory during the brisk early morning hours on Thursday.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s administration approved the drop-off following her assertion that the southern border is “secure” during a recent interview. The Lone Star State’s morning surprise to Harris was intended to belie her claim and bring the problem she is ignoring to her doorstep, a source told the Washington Examiner.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker on Wednesday issued an emergency disaster proclamation in response to several hundred foreign nationals being bused to the state from the southern border by Texas’ governor. “Today, I signed a disaster proclamation allowing the state to speed up the procurement of the immediate resources needed to help Chicago, Cook County, and other jurisdictions provide humanitarian assistance to the asylum seekers who are being sent to our state with no official advance notice by the Governor of Texas,” Pritzker said in a statement. “Let me be clear: while other states may be treating these vulnerable families as pawns, here in Illinois, we are treating them as people.”
NOTE - perhaps he should talk to Chicago mayor first. . . . Abbott also called Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot “hypocrites” for criticizing over the busing initiative when they then bused hundreds of migrants to suburban communities with no notice to those town’s mayors.

OBSERVATION - The left has called this a publicity ploy - well its working bigly.

China -

The Chinese Communist Party Congress is set to begin on October 16th, and reports coming out of China indicate a radical overhaul in economic leadership posts. There will be a gift towards more govt managed economic planning and away from a more capitalistic system.

OBSERVATION - Between property market disaster and its zero-COVID policies, much of China’s economy remains on life support. Only the will of the CCP has kept things together. But these aspects loom heavy over prospects for the coming year(s). This makes the prospects for a Taiwan war even more imminent.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now well into its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
Bad days continue for putin.

The Russian Navy Pavel Derzhavin had to be towed to port this morning, due to what appears to be propulsion issues. Derzharvin is the only TOR fitted Bykov PHM in service in the Black Sea.

RUMINT -
Georgia wants to hold a referendum on war with Russian Federation This was stated by the chairman of the Georgian Dream party George Kobakhidze. According to him, the people will decide for themselves whether they want to open a “second front” against the Russian Federation. Additionally, rumors that the Georgian Military is reported to be on the move on the Ossetian border.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- The founder of Russia’s shadowy Wagner mercenary group has appeared in leaked footage attempting to recruit prisoners to fight in Ukraine. In filmed footage, verified by the BBC, Yevgeniy Prigozhin can be seen addressing a large group of detainees. Prigozhin told prisoners their sentences would be commuted in exchange for service with his group. If they didn’t stay the 6 months, they would be tracked down and executed.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Relatively quiet compared to the previous couple weeks. Russian activity has slowed down significantly across the front, save for continued Russian attacks towards Bakhmut and northward out of Donetsk.

Overnight Russian cruse missiles struck the dam of the Karachunovsky Reservoir in Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk, causing a flood on the Ingulets River. The strike destroyed / damaged several spill gates, releasing water. The apparent purpose was to create a flood on the Ingulets to damage Ukranian pontoon bidges downstream - isolating Ukranian forces and inhibiting the Kherson offensive.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Widely scattered artillery attacks.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Ukranian forces continue to consolidate it gains and appear to be pressing forward across the Oskil River.

Minor Russian artillery shelling along the border northeast of Kharkiv.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Widely scattered Russian artillery across the front. Ground combat continues in the Bakhmut and Donetsk areas. It has been identified that Wagner Group mercenaries and VDV forces are the units involved in the fight at Bakhmut.

Crimean Front ——
More Ukraine gains on the Kherson front.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

Ammunition / logistical sites hit —
Ongoing

OUTLOOK ——
Not much change from previous posts. Though I see action slowing down for a while as Ukraine regathers and Russia tries to figure out its next step.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Rumors that Transnistria is bargaining with the Moldovan government to kick out Russian troops in exchange for independence, or at least internal autonomy

Europe / NATO General -

A coalition of right-wing parties had won a “thin majority” in the Swedish parliament. Following the announcement, Swedish Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson said he would begin forming a new government “for all of Sweden and all citizens” that “can get things done.”

OBSERVATION - One of the key selling points for the right wing parties was the willingness to counter the proliferation of Muslim “no go” zones in the country and increase in crimes committed by immigrants.

Syria -

Hamas has announced a restoration of ties with Syria’s Assad government

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Reports of an agreement on a ceasefire, that appears to be holding. This follows Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan official request for aid from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). That request has largely been rejected by key members other than Russia. CSTO is essentially dead.

Earlier on Wednesday, PM Pashinyan said Azerbaijani forces had taken control of 10 square kilometers (almost 4 square miles) of Armenian territory during the clashes.

The capitol of Armenia is experiencing riots calling for the resignation of the PM for letting the Azeri attacks be unanswered and the lack of military preparedness.

OBSERVATION - The Russian answer to NATO is collapsing because Russia can no longer project power in the associated regions. Armenia is on its own.

have your gotten your food and essential supplies stocked up yet? If not, why not?
Repeating myself - most certainly as this is a critical message.

Globalism / Great Reset -

In a WEF sponsored article titled ‘My Carbon’: An approach for inclusive and sustainable cities’ written by Mridul Kaushik, Mission Director, Smart Cities Mission, Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs of India, she praises how people complied with “restrictions” imposed as a result of the wuhan lockdown, suggesting they would do the same under the guise of reducing carbon emissions. gown

OBSERVATION - Early on during the wuhan lockdowns, GGR / climate change cultists speculated about the declaration of a global climate change ‘emergency’ structured similarly to the wuhan declarations. They still haven’t lost that desire. However, with the evidence / proof of the pandemic being largely a scam, people will be more reluctant to hop into the train car this time around. See for evidence the growing pushback in Europe that has been the result of a flawed and bogus push towards green energy that has forced govt’s like Germany to reopen coal plants to keep the lights and heat on this winter. IMHO any push for a wuhan like environment emergency will result in govts forcibly making the citizens comply - to the extent even more than wuhan (which was bad enough.)

Wuhan virus -

The study was posted on The Social Science Research Network (SSRN) in September, titled, “COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters for Young Adults: A Risk-Benefit Assessment and Five Ethical Arguments against Mandates at Universities.“
It was conducted by nine top scientists from the University of Washington, University of Oxford, University of Toronto, Harvard University – Harvard Medical School, University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), Johns Hopkins University – Department of Surgery, and others.
Using CDC and sponsor-reported adverse event data, researchers conclude that booster regulations may result in more harm than good.According to the study, for every one COVID hospitalization prevented in previously uninfected young adults, “18 to 98 actual serious adverse events” have been caused.

OBSERVATION - These studies continue to keep coming out. The problem is the powers that be have taken measured to protect the key players. However, this will add fuel to the lawsuit fires that may eventually bring some justice to the pandemic managers.

Transplant recipients are rejecting their new organ after receiving a vaccination against COVID-19, adding an additional challenge for the vaccinated population, according to the new study published in the Journal of Clinical Medicine.
A group of 18 health experts and researchers from Japan conducted a study to systematically evaluate and characterize the currently reported cases of acute corneal graft rejection after COVID-19 vaccine administration.

OBSERVATION - Just another stack on the growing pile of evidence that the jab’s is not so benign as advertised.

Economy -

Mortgage rates topped 6% (6.28 percent) this week, their highest level since 2008, giving a jolt to home buyers who last year were paying less than half that.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.02% this week, up from 5.89% last week and 2.86% a year ago, according to a survey of lenders released Thursday by mortgage giant Freddie Mac. The last time rates were this high was in the heart of the financial crisis almost 14 years ago, when the U.S. was deep in recession.

MORE RELATED - “Everything points to another 75 basis-point rate hike by the Fed when it meets next week. The likelihood that it will have to go ‘big’ again in November is elevated, too,” said Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, an economist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “What’s more, its new projections should indicate that the fight against inflation will be more painful than previously acknowledged.”

OBSERVATION - The Fed is reportedly still bullish on raising the prime rate any where from a half to a full point at their next meeting. This will cause mortgage rates to skyrocket and potentially crush the housing market. That will set in play a series of dominos that may result in a very deep recession. One report a month or so ago noted that the Fed chair considered the housing market to be ‘collateral damage’ in the fight against inflation.
Also - This will have significant consequences on those leaving the hell holes of liberal blue states/cities for freedom in Red zones. Not sure how this will pan out, but may result in a boom in RV sales as folks down size in order to escape. RV boom has been going on since the start of wuhan and only recently slowed down due to loan rate increases.
ON THE SIDE - I sold my kalifornia home this past january. I had considered renting it, however my loan wouldn’t allow that. It was an ARM, and now I’m very glad to be out of it.

Argentine corn planting has stalled due to the driest conditions in 30 years, indicating that export demand for U.S.-based corn may increase substantially during the next harvest season.

OBSERVATION - Corn in the US however, has had a rough year and the potential impact of another La Nina winter doesn’t bode well for next year.

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Latest estimate: 0.5 percent — September 15, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.5 percent on September 15, down from 1.3 percent on September 9.

OBSERVATION - The economy is still on the transition period into a deep recession. The numbers game will get more intense as the ‘official’ GDP is announced. With the midterms on the line you can bet they will add special sauce to the numbers to insure they are positive. Past GDP now estimates have been positive, while the final numbers were negative.

Invasion of Illegals -

President Biden called on Republican governors Thursday to stop sending migrants into Democratic cities and communities, calling such actions “political stunts” and “un-American.”
During an address at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute gala, Biden accused Republicans of “playing politics” and using migrants as “props” after dozens of migrants were sent to Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts and to Vice President Kamala Harris’ residence in Washington, D.C.
“Republicans are playing politics with human beings, using them as props. What they’re doing is simply wrong, it’s un-American, it’s reckless,” Biden said Thursday. “We have a process in place to manage migrants at the border,” the president added. “We’re working to make sure it’s safe and orderly and humane. Republican officials should not interfere with that process by waging a politically political stance.”

RELATED - The racist white limousine liberals on Martha’s Vineyard are not happy about their new poor, brown neighbors. Martha’s Vineyard happily hosts thousands of tourists every summer, however when 50 poor illegals are dumped on the island it is a “humanitarian crisis.” Martha’s Vineyard Homeless Shelter Coordinator Lisa Belcastro melted down over the 50 illegals during an interview with the Cape Cod Times. “The difficult challenges are — we have to, at some point in time they [illegals] have to move from here to somewhere else – we cannot, we don’t have the services to take care of 50 immigrants and we certainly don’t have housing. We’re in a housing crisis as we are on this island! We can’t house everyone here that lives here and works here!” She continued, “We don’t have housing for 50 more people.”

OBSERVATION - We pretty well know biden’s statements are not true. DHS has shipped illegals all across the country - mostly into red area. there is no process at the border, as illegals are hardly slowed down following apprehension being release to appear before courts on their honor. This just shows how hypocritical the left is, willing to have everyone else deal with it Martha’s vineyard cannot handle 50 illegals while cities like El Paso deal with thousands daily.
HINT - they can be housed easily in 0bama’s 12 million dollar mansion (threatened buy global sea level rise)

Meanwhile air head Kalifornia governor Gavin Newsom is demanding the Justice Department investigate De Santis and Abbot for human trafficking because they are busing migrants to Blue cities.

Biden / Harris watch -

biden got lost on stage after another rambling speech.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Democratic congressman running for an open U.S. Senate seat in Ohio has made it clear his intent isn’t just to win his race but to destroy Republicans in the process, which means attacking at least half the country. Rep Tim Ryan made his goals perfectly clear saying “Some of those answers will come from Republicans, not the extremists that we are dealing with every single day,” Ryan continued. “We’ve got to kill and confront that movement, but working with normal mainstream Republicans, that’s going to be really, really important.”

OBSERVATION - Similar words from a republican would garnish widespread condemnation form the media for inciting violence.

The Biden administration has asserted one of the top security threats facing the nation comes from domestic extremists. Supporting such a claim, however, requires cases, but rank-and-file FBI agents are saying the threat is way overblown.
According to The Washington Times, current and former FBI agents say the bureau is getting pressured to come up with domestic terror cases and find white supremacists in order to meet internal quotas.
“The demand for White supremacy” coming from FBI headquarters “vastly outstrips the supply of White supremacy,” said one agent, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “We have more people assigned to investigate White supremacists than we can actually find.”

OBSERVATION - FBI/DoJ making efforts to attack half of the country running into a speed bump.

POLITICAL FRONT -

Not ignoring the Trump - FBI saga. This is just in the opening rounds with the FBI/DoJ finding themselves fighting on Trump’s turf.

Cyber Warfare -

Iran received additional sanctions for cyber attacks and other hacking.

China -

As mentioned a few days ago, China is expected to shift to an even more centralized approach to its economy after October’s 20th Party Congress. Analysts think that this is an attempt to mitigate Western sanctions over its expected action on Taiwan. But another possible reason is that China could experience a 2008-esque financial crisis that the Chinese Communist Party wants to centrally control. As I’ve been noting, China’s real estate crash. So far the results of the chaos have been localized bank runs and frozen customer deposits, smartphone tracking apps that won’t allow customers into public areas to withdraw bank deposits, mortgage boycotts which stopped mortgage payments in over 100 cities, capital outflows from Chinese bonds seeking safety in other markets. According to Chinese Everbright Bank, some eight million home construction projects are stalled as construction companies await bailouts to continue building. China has been able to kick the can down the road so far but some believe that the piper will need to be paid with a 2008-esque meltdown. next year.

The Chinese government has stopped announcing annual GDP growth rates and is now announcing it will make its best effort to keep economic growth going. Those efforts are concentrating on preventing a collapse of the financial system. Unofficially, the government expected 5.5 percent growth in 2022. Foreign economists estimate a more realistic 3.5 percent growth. The actual decline in GDP growth is a state secret but is believed to be bad enough to produce GDP shrinkage and an official end to the decades of high GDP growth.

OBSERVATION -This will not stop any Taiwan operation, but may well affect how it goes about it.

Japan -

There are discussions to sell 24 F22 fighters the pentagon is seeking to retire to Japan. Congressional approval al would be necessary , but they would bolster Japan’s defense against Chinese air threats including the new J20.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now well into its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
Bad days continue for putin. Russian media admitting to the beating it took and is trying to spin the news, but not very well given the loss of the narrative the whooping they got in Kharkiv.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Video on social media reportedly shows prison transport vans departing from where a pitch to join the Wagner Group mercenaries was made. Estimated capacity of the convoy was in the neighborhood of 400.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and increasing rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine maintained the tempo in the east, pushing further east across the Oskil River in several places as Russia scrambles to reorganize the fleeing forces and establish a resemblance of a defense. Ukraine advance is slowed by efforts to consolidate gains and a lengthen logistics line that is struggling to keep up with the speed of the advance.

Russian made two more missile strikes on the dam near Kryvyi Rih. Now word that I could find on just what part(s) of the dam were struck.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Scattered Russian artillery fire across the region. Blackout occurred in 21 settlements of Sumy region as result of Russian shelling targeting a substation yesterday.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Ukrainian forces are reportedly advancing across the Oskil River in northern Kharkiv Oblast. A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces are establishing bases and artillery positions throughout Kharkiv Oblast

Russian sources also reported that Ukrainian forces are continuing ground operations southwest of Izyum, near Lyman, and on the east bank of the Oskil River, reportedly compelling Russian forces to withdraw from some areas in eastern Ukraine and reinforce others. Russian artillery has been striking areas southeast of Izyum correlating with Ukranian attacks around Lyman.

Massive burial site found in Izyum after Ukraine liberated it from Russian occupation. About 440 graves were discovered, according to Sky News.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Ukrainian and Russian official sources confirmed fighting in Spirne (east of Siversk) and Mayorsk (south of Bakhmut). Observers note that the intensity of the fighting has appeared to have declined over the past couple days. It is being reported that the Russian assaults were not successful overnight.

Crimean Front ——
Ukraine continues to maintain considerable OPSEC on the Kherson offensive. However over the course of the offensive, Ukrainian and Russian sources indicate three axises of attack by Ukraine: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border west of Vysokopillya.

More Russian missile strikes targeted the dam that was already hit near Kryvyi Rih.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Reported air strike alerts across western and central Ukraine with local ADA activated.

Russian Territory -—
Heavy shelling, Belgorod Oblast, Pro-Russian sources claim an electrical substation was hit, and power in the area of Valuyki has been knocked out. However from videos posted on social media it may well be initially a strike on an ammo dump with rockets flying off in random directions

Partisan Resistance ——
Prosecutor and his deputy were killed as result of explosion in occupied Luhansk.
In occupied Berdyansk, the “deputy head of the military administration for housing and communal services” Oleh Boyko and his wife Lyudmila, who headed the “city election commission for the referendum” were killed

Ammunition / logistical sites hit —
A Russian strategic command post was destroyed in Nova Kakhovka.
Explosions were also heard in Melitopol overnight with reports the Airfield was targeted.

OUTLOOK ——
Pretty much the same as the past few days. The ball is in Ukraine’s court as Russia is incapable of reorganizing the forces that fled Kharkiv Oblast (minus their armor and ammo) into an effective defense in what used to be their rear area. Russia will pursue its attacks towards Bakhmut, with high losses from the meat grinder for an objective that now has little to no tactical advantage other than a PR goal to show Russia is still in the game.
The Kherson offensive continues to be under heavy OPSEC, but the pieces of info show a continued set piece advances.

Russia may be further distracted from its efforts in Ukraine by fighting in Armenia/Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan. These all combine to create severe constipation at the national strategic level for Russian planners and what will be the more serious result from inaction or inability to respond militarily .

Pakistan -

Pakistani officials are saying it may take two to six months to get assistance to victims of flooding from this year’s very active monsoon season. Dengue fever, dysentery, and malaria are breaking out across refugee camps as the flood waters begin receding.

OBSERVATION - This will put a critical strain on the current govt already facing challenges from it despised previous president.

Iran -

Putin on Thursday announced that a delegation of 80 large Russian companies will visit Iran next week, state-owned news agency RIA reported

OBSERVATION - Russia is desperate to develop economic ties that circumvent current sanctions. It finds itself in the same boat as Iran so naturally an alliance can develop as both are opposed to the west.

Syria -

The Israeli military has identified the withdrawal of some Iranian militia forces as well as Iranian and Hezbollah operatives withdrawing from Syria.

The withdrawal of the forces detected by the IDF comes after a report in the Saudi-owned a-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper that reported Russian officials demanding that the Iranians leave several sites in Syria, including its military headquarters in the western Hama province, situated next to the Syrian army’s Regiment 49 base.

OBSERVATION - Israel and Russian have been careful not to engage each other during Israeli strikes on Hezbollah/Iranian targets. Russia seems to want this to continue. iran was apparently hoping they could jump into these abandoned Russian bases, but Russia is saying otherwise. Iran may well be complying in order to stay on good terms as it works to go forward on increasing economic ties with Russia.

Venezuela -

US is threatening more sanctions if Venezuela doesn’t return to the negation table.

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

The situation remains tense while a cease fire holds. Armenia said that at least 135 of its troops died in border clashes with Azerbaijan this week, bringing the overall toll to more than 200. Both sides accuse each other of initiating clashes, which erupted into the worst fighting in two years.
Azerbaijan says 71 of its troops have died in border clashes.
PM of Armenia Pashinyan had phone calls with Macron and Putin overnight.

OBSERVATION - Armenia is pretty on its own. Russia can’t/won’t respond, other Russian allied nations nada. The EU too busy with Ukraine.

Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan conflict (NEW) -

Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan conflict has escalated to levels possibly beyond April 2021. Flashpoints and combat across distant sections of the border. Kyrgyz media reporting that even Batken has been shelled, which is a dangerous and unprecedented development

Tajikistan accuses the Kyrgyz military of targeting their territory with “all types of weapons,” despite Tajik efforts to implement ceasefire.

OBSERVATION - With the Russian military falling apart in Ukraine, these former Soviet states are seizing the opportunity to settle grudges and take territory they claim is theirs but unable due to Russian ’s heavy hand. This is almost like a Yugoslavian scenario. In the case with Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan conflict, there appears to be a factor of ethnic enclaves with in the two countries and a poorly defined border between. The fight to consolidate enclaves and restructure the border is one.

Black Swans -
Following predictions of a major hurricane season, the reality is it has been a dud. There is risk in being complacent because the season isn’t over yet. A major hurricane strikes in the Gulf region could cause major fuel shortage and other issues from food to power, etc Currently the only game in town is Tropical Storm Fiona which is expected to hit Puerto Rico over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center so far hasn’t published expectations that the storm will develop into a hurricane before it threatens U.S. landfall. It is currently expected to brush up along the east coast.

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