Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Note for new readers - I use these postings for my own preparedness situational awareness and share them with you. The are all part of a web of interactiveness where actions in one area affect others. For example, I saw this develop with wuhan spread while the congress was fixed on impeachment. I saw precursors to the current infant formula crisis and made sure my new granddaughter had a years worth in advance of the current chaos.

I strive to keep the BS conspiracy to a minimum but remember that even a blind squirrel can find a nut.

I am pessimistic that things will improve. Therefore I plan accordingly remembering the phrase “knowledge is power”. Hope this is useful to you as well.

FYI, I reply to my previous posts, so one can trace them backwards in time.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Asia’s manufacturing activity stalled in June as many companies were hit by supply disruptions caused by China’s strict COVID-19 lockdowns, while sharp economic slowdown risks in Europe and the United States reinforced fears of a global recession.

OBSERVATION - Listed under GGR due to developing global recession and being a key component (economic chaos) to GGR’s plans.

The highest court in the Netherlands ordered the government to comply with an EU law to reduce the inert gas nitrogen in vulnerable areas. That would mean culling 30% of its livestock. One farming organization called the plans ‘disgusting’. The 30% reduction is in response to the so-called ‘nitrogen crisis’, including concerns about ammonia pollution.
To cut livestock numbers by 30%, the Finance And Agriculture Ministry published two proposals: the forced sale of farmland and the mass disposal of livestock. Both would devastate farmers across the country.

OBSERVATION - GGR food control goals being implemented under climate change ‘rules’.

National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, during an interview on CNN in regard to skyrocketing gas prices said “What you heard from the President today was a clear articulation of the stakes. This is about the future of the Liberal World Order and we have to stand firm.”
OBSERVATION - For the confused, the term “Liberal World Order” is the same as New World Order and Global Reset.

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Wuhan virus -

Biden administration’s health officials announced they are planning to spend $3.2 billion on 105 million doses of Pfizer’s two-dose, mRNA vaccine.

OBSERVATION - As evidence is showing, the jab doesn’t prevent the infection or spread of the virus and post jab medical issues - including death - are major issues, ones that the medical community refuse to address.

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Economy -

Biden - Drivers will pay more for gas “As Long as It Takes” to stop Russia’s war in Ukraine

While speaking at a European Central Bank Forum in Portugal on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he couldn’t guarantee that the Federal Reserve can bring inflation back down while also retaining a strong labor market. This means interest rates will continue to go up, which may cause an increase in unemployment. Economists are saying the probability of the US experiencing a broad economic crisis is rising and could possibly occur in 2023 or even sooner. In the meantime, Biden still insists a recession is not inevitable, despite worsening projections by economists.

Meanwhile, evidence that the economy has officially entered the recession zone. The economy is expected to fall to a negative 1 percent annual rate in the April-to-June period, according to the Atlanta Fed Bank’s GDPNow model. That’s down from an 0.3 percent projection from earlier this week. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. This update comes one day after the final first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) reading was revised lower to an annual rate of minus 1.6 percent, the first quarterly drop since 2020.

A recent June global market survey from Deutsche Bank found that 90 percent of respondents anticipate the next U.S. recession will take place by the end of 2023 or before, up from 78 percent in May. The same study revealed that 20 percent think a recession is poised to happen this year, up from 13 percent last month.

OBSERVATION - These initial numbers of GDP drops are likely the precoursors to a much more substantial decline later in the fiscal and calendar year as economic quakes from high fuel and commodity prices amplify their effects. The happy sauce being pushed is that it will be a ‘mild’ recession. A broader view by many is that it will be anything but mild.

The Feds core personal consumption expenditures prices, excluding food and energy, rose 4.7% from a year ago, slightly less than expected. Headline inflation remained strong, rising 0.6% on the month and holding near the highest level since 1982. Disposable income and inflation-adjusted spending both declined on the month.

High diesel prices are continuing to make news in regards to food production and distribution. Some farm organizations are noting that much of the farm equipment is sitting idle because farmers cannot afford to fuel them. This will result in decreased yields and increased prices at the store.

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Invasion of Illegals -

The Supreme Court handed President Joe Biden a victory Thursday, ruling that he can shut down a Trump administration program designed to restrict immigration at the southern border.
The court said in a 5-4 ruling that the Biden administration acted properly in seeking to end the “Remain in Mexico” policy, formally known as the Migrant Protection Protocols. It required people seeking asylum at the southern border, mainly from Central America, to wait in Mexico while their claims were decided.

OBSERVATION - Removal of the Title 42 restrictions will open the final flood gate to illegals on our southern border. Uncontrolled flow of illegals is exactly what biden et al want, and the general public does NOT want. Could easily place this under GGR as the WEF envisions a world without borders.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

A new University of Chicago poll found that over a quarter of a deeply alienated American public, particularly those who identify as Republican, believe that it may “soon be necessary to take up arms” against the government,
The poll, a collaboration between Republican and Democratic pollsters Neil Newhouse and Joel Benenson, respectively, surveyed 1,000 registered voters around the U.S.. A slight majority of those, 56%, said they believed the government was corrupt and “rigged against everyday people like me,” with self-identified Republicans polling substantially higher on that question than Democrats.
In total, 28% of voters agreed with the statement “it may be necessary at some point soon for citizens to take up arms against the government.” That skewed heavily toward Republicans, with one in three Republicans and 45% of self-identified “strong Republicans” agreeing with the statement. The GOP doesn’t hold a monopoly on the sentiment, though – one in five Democrats agreed, as did 35% of self-identified independent voters.
The belief in armed resistance was loosely correlated with actual gun ownership. About 37% of those who said they had guns in their homes also agreed with the “taking up arms” statement.

https://www.courthousenews.com/poll-quarter-of-americans-open-to-armed-rebellion-against-government/

OBSERVATION - I’ve noted in the past a growing trend of thought on a ‘peaceful’ divorce between the Red and Blue regions of the country. Embedded in that trend was probability that the separation would not be able to be peaceful. This poll takes this element out and indicates that it is thought much higher than a couple years ago. If the violence I think is trending to explode this fall hits, these percentages could go higher.

ADDITIONALLY - American Thinker has a good commentary on this subject at this link

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/07/the_united_states_has_become_two_countries_within_a_nation.html

“These two countries within a country can no longer maintain their increasingly tenuous and potentially volatile relationship. We as a nation are at that defining moment when one side has to win and the other lose; there is no middle ground. “

NYT reports that “Violence in and around retail settings is definitely increasing, and it is a concern,” said Jason Straczewski, a vice president of government relations and political affairs at the National Retail Federation.
From 2018 to 2020, assaults reported to the FBI by law enforcement agencies overall rose 42%; they increased 63% in grocery stores and 75% in convenience stores. The assault numbers can fluctuate depending on how many local police departments and other law enforcement agencies report to the FBI, and more departments reported in 2020 than 2018. Of the more than 2 million assaults reported to the FBI by law enforcement agencies across the country in 2020, more than 82,000 — about 4% — were at shopping malls, convenience stores and other similar locations.
Last year, the FBI said, more than half of active shooter attacks — in which an individual with a gun is killing or trying to kill people in a busy area — occurred in places of commerce, including stores.

OBSERVATION - Just another component showing that the lawlessness promoted by democrats is increasing. See also above on the necessity to take up arms.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi continues to ignore a resolution sent to her by West Virginia representative Carol Miller that would allow the last surviving World War II Medal of Honor recipient to lie in honor at the US Capitol.
The veteran in question, Woody Williams, passed away on Wednesday at the age of ninety-eight, serving in the Pacific Theater of World War II, and most notably fighting in the battle of Iwo Jima.

Biden said that he supports Congress ending the filibuster to pass legislation protecting a national right to abortion on Thursday.
“The foremost thing we should do is make it clear how outrageous this decision was,” Biden said. “I believe we have to codify Roe v. Wade in the law, and the way to do that is to make sure that Congress votes to do that.” “And if the filibuster gets in the way, it’s like voting rights, we should require an exception to the filibuster for this action,” he continued.

OBSERVATION - There is virtually no chance that the filibuster will be set aside for this issue.

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China -

Chinese president Xi spoke at a Hong Kong ceremony marking 25 years since Britain returned the city to China. There he defended China’s “one country two systems” policy. For Xi, this is on his first trip outside of the mainland in two years.

OBSERVATION - just a few years back (2019), TM monitored the Hong Kong independence movement, a movement that was a brutally squashed by wuhan lockdown sanctions and now HK’s other “system” is ruled by puppet leaders under the control of China.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

No news on current preparations. Many analysts believe preparations at the test site are complete and NK can conduct a test at any time.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war .

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia’s capture of Sievierodonetsk puts the battle in eastern Ukraine into a new phase and analysts watching to see if it can maintain the initiative and press on, or pause for a breather.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia has begun shipping grain from territory its forces are occupying in Ukraine, A vessel carrying 7,000 tons of cereal has left the port city of Berdyansk to go to “friendly countries”, a pro-Russian regional official says.
OBSERVATION - Some may consider this western propaganda, however pro-Russian sources are confirming. This is economic warfare.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia still having challenges getting recruits for its military efforts in Ukraine. Russian recruiting offices seem to be intensifying their efforts to attract regular soldiers. Various sources report that they are also targeting conscripts. In Russia, men aged 18 to 27 are legally obliged to do 12 months of military service. Exceptions are made for those who cannot serve for health reasons. Students are also able to defer for the duration of their studies.

- Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov announced on June 29 that another Akhmat special battalion, the Vostok (east)-Akhmat battalion, has been successfully formed and will shortly move to its point of permanent deployment and begin active service. He has promised four more battalions for the war.

Economic Impact -
- The United States took enforcement action imposing restrictions against Delaware-based Heritage Trust on the grounds that sanctioned Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov holds a property interest, the Treasury Department said. The move subjects the trust, with a value of over $1 billion, to the same restrictions as Kerimov, barring Americans from dealing with it or the contribution of funds.

- Putin has issued a decree that seizes full control of the Sakhalin-2 gas and oil project in Russia’s far east, a move that could force out Shell and Japanese investors. The decree, signed on Thursday, creates a new firm to take over all rights and obligations of Sakhalin Energy Investment Co, in which Shell and two Japanese trading companies Mitsui and Mitsubishi hold just under 50%.

- Russia’s energy giant Gazprom on Thursday lost more than a quarter of its market value after the state-owned company decided not to pay out dividends. Gazprom’s stock price tumbled 27% before Moscow’s stock exchange intervened to halt trading.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot and dry over the 10 day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces continue their successful assault towards Lysychansk from the south, a move that will result in all of the Luhansk Oblast being under Russian / separatist control. Russia also continued extensive missile strikes across Ukraine, striking mostly civilian targets (while claiming they are being used for military purposes).

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More Russian artillery and limited counterattacks. Recent attacks look like Russia is attempting to move towards Kharkiv on two axis, one from the north and a second from the west.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continues to launch attacks through the sector.

Fighting in the Lysychansk pocket continues with see-saw fighting around the Lysychansk refinery and smaller surrounding cities to the south. There are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have entered Lysychansk proper from the north and south. Russian forces continue to pressure Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, making Ukraine use very risky.

As the Lysychansk pocket closes, Russia is increasingly focusing on its next objective - Bakhmut. This both as a means to cut off Ukraine defenders in Lysychansk, but as a road network hub to pursue combat towards the west.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
More artillery strikes and limited attacks by Russian / separatist forces. Over the past few days Ukraine has reportedly hit at least 6 major Russian ammo dumps in controlled territories.

Crimea Front -
Russian Army launched 3 Kh-22 missiles at Bilhorod-Dnistrovsky of Odesa region, residential apartments block destroyed, 14 people killed, 30 wounded. Another missile destroyed a resort: 3 killed, 1 wounded. Kyiv’s defence ministry identified the weapons as Kh-22 (X-22) - an old type of cruise missile originally developed in the 1960s. Fired from Tupolev-22 bombers, they are a medium-range weapon and in their original form were not accurate. They didn’t need to be initially, as the plans were to equip with a nuclear warhead, where pinpoint accuracy wasn’t as necessary (cue horseshoes and hand grenades meme)

Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

Partisian Resistance -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Russia continues to maintain the initiative and tempo in eastern Ukraine, focusing on Lysychansk. Russia appears to have come up with a tactic of massive artillery to allow Russian troops to advance into Ukraine defensive positions. The Russian flanking move on Lysychansk has neutralized some of the terrain advantage the Ukraine forces possess.

Scrutiny of Russian munition availability to sustain the intense artillery attacks that have been key to Russian advances in eastern Ukraine. Russia holds about a 10:1 advantage in artillery and has poured literally tons of munitions into easter Ukraine. Dipping into 60’s vintage Kh-22 (X-22) missiles, let alone T62 tanks, suggests that Russia is scraping the bottom of the bucket and raises serious doubts that extended operations to capture all of Donbas is out of reach.

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Europe / NATO General -
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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says his government will increase Canada’s troop presence in Latvia as part of NATO’s commitment to strengthen its deterrence measures along Russia’s border.
Trudeau made the announcement at the close of the three-day NATO summit in Madrid. He did not give specific numbers. Canada leads NATO’s battlegroup in Latvia of around 2,000 soldiers in total.

NATO allies Estonia and Latvia, which share borders with Russia, agreed to jointly purchase a mid-range air defense system, the Estonian defense ministry said in a statement.

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Israel -

The out going Israeli govt focused more on social justice than on military strength, and the violence seen during the past Ramadan in the West Bank may been reason for the loss of support. This rejection of the social program, in the face of rising dangers from Iran/Hezbollah may swing support back to Netanyahu.

Egyptian security officials warned Iran not to operate on Egyptian soil to target Israelis, days after Turkey and Israel apparently thwarted attempts to target Israeli civilians in Turkish territory, according to a report Wednesday in the Qatar-backed daily Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed.
“Egyptian officials informed their Iranian counterparts that Egypt will not accept the involvement of its security reputation in the ongoing conflict between Tel Aviv and Tehran,” the report said.

OBSERVATION - Iran has been seeking ways to target Israelis in other countries, most recently in Turkey. Egypt doesn’t want any part of this as it would affect the positive benefits of its relationship with Israel.

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Iran -

Senior Western officials voiced doubts about reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal on Thursday, with the European Union saying it “might not make it over the finishing line” and a U.S. official saying the odds had lengthened after this week’s failed talks.

OBSERVATION - Iran wants talks to fail, it would give them carte blac to proceed unmonitored with their nuclear ambitions.

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Syria -

See Turkey

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Turkey -

Responding to what appears to be delays in the announced Turkish offensive against Kurds in Syria, Erdogan stated “Let’s be patient a little, we are working on launching an operation that will be bigger than the operations we have done gradually and we will implement it in the appropriate time. Turkey is working on an operation in Syria in which everything can happen suddenly.

OBSERVATION - Turkish operations against the Kurds in Syria may have gotten delayed due to many Russian-based factors. First being the withdrawal of Russian forces and the transfer to Iran/Hezbollah. The second being the recent warnings that Russia will restore Syria’s territorial integrity (ie, remove Turkey, US and other country forces). These recent changes may have forced changes in plans.

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