Cheney, will not be renominated.
Fitzpatrick, probably will win unless he loses to a rat if his seat ends up worse.
Gonzalez (OH), already quit because he was going to lose the primary.
Katko, seat will probably be gerrymandered by the rats.
Kinzinger, seat eliminated by the rats and I think he was gonna be toast anyway.
Mace, has challengers, I think we have great chance of getting rid of her in runoff.
Meijer, has a couple challengers, we’ll see. He’s scum.
Upton, has a strong looking challenger and might get tossed in the same seat as another Republican Rep. I think he’s gone.
Herrera Beutler, unfortunately WA has a stupid top two system. She will probably be reelected in November with rat votes over a real Republican. We need a strong rat to run to ensure she comes in third in the primary and doesn’t advance.
So, no. I think ‘most’ of them will probably not be back.
Interesting. I hope you’re right.
A few observations:
We don’t know with what sort of districts Meijer and Upton will end up, since that stupid “nonpartisan commission” is drawing them and has been all over the place with its maps.
Upton has the advantage of being from a corner district that is not overwhelmingly Republican, while Meijer easily could be given a district where another Republican could beat him (assuming that the anti-Meijer vote isn’t split among several candidates—no run-offs in MI).
SC hasn’t redrawn its districts yet, and presumably the SC-01 will be made more Republican. If that is accomplished by adding very Republican Horry County, then bye-bye Mace, unless Tom Rice (who is from Myrtle Beach, in Horry County) runs there as well and Mace and Rice make it into the run-off because 17 candidates split the conservative vote, in which case SC Republicans would face a no-win situation.
Herrera Buetler’s CD almost certainly will be GOP leaning but not overly Republican (at least that’s how it’s drawn in the two GOP and two Democrat submissions to the “nonpartisan” redistricting committee. The blanket primary will end up with Herrera Buetler and a Democrat in the top two, not Herrera Buetler and a conservative stalwart in the top-two. So not only will Herrera Buetler win, but you’ll be supporting her in the run-off. (It goes without saying that not only is the Washington/California “nonpartisan blanket primary” an affront to democracy and freedom of association, it is unconstitutional despite SCOTUS’s stupid 7-2 decision to uphold it against a facial challenge—it’s one of Clarence Thomas’s biggest goofs on the Court.)