Replies

FRIDAY trend posting.

Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - OMICRON is a big nothing burger. Globally there have been only one reported fatalities associated with it and its transmission is not significantly greater than Delta.

Biden on Thursday warned people who are not vaccinated against Covid-19 are looking at a very bleak and dangerous winter if they do not get their shots soon.
“I want to send a direct message to the American people: Due to the steps we’ve taken Omicron has not yet spread as fast as it would have otherwise done,” Biden said in remarks at the White House following his Covid-19 briefing Thursday.
“But it’s here now and it’s spreading and it’s gonna increase. ... We are looking at a winter of severe illness and death for the unvaccinated — for themselves, their families and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. But there’s good news: If you’re vaccinated and you have your booster shot, you’re protected from severe illness and death,” the President added.
OBSERVATION - Many are reading into the “winter of severe illness and death” statement as an omen that the powers that be will come up with something more deadly. Omicron is not panning out to be the threat needed to scare the people into more compliance. Globalists implications
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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Global powers that be (GPTB) backing off from hyping Omicron given its underwhelming threat. Countries and the US are moving forward for harsher treatment of the Unvaxxed anyway.

A group that includes former Pfizer vice president Dr. Michael Yeadon filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court (ICC) on behalf of UK citizens against Boris Johnson and UK officials, Bill and Melinda Gates, chief executives of Big Pharma companies, World Economic Forum executive chairman Klaus Schwab, and others for crimes against humanity.
The UK group, including an astrophysicist and a funeral director, additionally charged Dr. Anthony Fauci; Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO); June Raine, chief executive of Medicines and Healthcare products regulatory agency (MHRA); Dr. Radiv Shah, president of the Rockefeller Foundation; and Dr. Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, as “responsible for numerous violations of the Nuremberg Code … war crimes and crimes of aggression” in the UK and other countries.
OBSERVATION - This group has been unsuccessful getting UK courts to take up this case. I think it is highly dubious that the globalist controlled ICC will take up the case either.

Protests continue around the world against tyrannical lockdown/vaccination mandates - in spite of media silence. New Zealand, home to one of the most radical leaders of the wuhan cult, thousands turned out to protest the continuation of restrictions. NZ is reputedly approximately 90% fully vaccinated.

IN RELATED - While not in the thousands, acts of disobedience by smaller groups can gain strong notice. For example,. a group of unvaxxed protesters dared to try to order a meal at an Applebee’s in the New York City borough of Queens on Wednesday. They were arrested by NYPD in a action that has started to go viral. Optics against the NY city and NYPD are not good, given that DeBlasio is out of office in 15 days and his successor is not supportive of his tactics. The four people arrested were charged with criminal trespass, the NYPD later added. This comes one day after six anti-mandate scofflaws were arrested at a nearby Cheesecake Factory.

Germany is seeking to crackdown on the Telegram app because of its use to organize protests. Telegram has been used around the world for fast, secure messaging - giving organizers of protests/riots quick response to events. These responses are even quicker than law enforcement can act, giving protestors/rioters a significant tactical advantage. Telegram has played a massive role in organizing anti-COVID protests across Europe and has been used as a crowd-sourcing platform for challenging the establishment narrative during the pandemic.

More legal hits to biden’s mandates. The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals declined Wednesday to hear “en banc” the case against President Joe Biden’s rule forcing large private employers to vaccinate or COVID-19 test their employees.
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Economy - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - US inflation continues to get worse. Setting record highs. Supply issues continue to get worse. Congress keeps kicking budget and debt ceiling down the road a month at a time. Now the Fed is planning to take more aggressive tactics next year, planning on raising the prime rate three times next year. Some indicate the potential for double digit inflation as early as next summer.

Looking into 2022, some economists are indicating that the US may see double digit inflation. This assessment is supported to a degree in the Fed’s look at three interest rate increases for 2022. This imbalance and fed response could tip the economy into a deep recession and even depression.

According to a new report from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, “inflation in 2021 will require the average U.S. household to spend around $3,500 more in 2021 to achieve the same level of consumption of goods and services as in recent previous years (2019 or 2020).” In other words, due to inflation, Americans’ standard of living is rapidly plummeting.

It is increasingly becoming apparent that biden’s “Build Back Better” plan is going to be shelved due to all the pork, and how it will maintain high inflation.

Democrats are increasingly blaming producers of goods for high prices as rising inflation drags down President Joe Biden’s approval ratings and threatens the party’s prospects. For example, Biden called upon the Federal Trade Commission to launch an investigation into oil and gas companies. He claimed their “anti-consumer” behavior is behind the inflated gasoline costs. Now democrats are calling for investigation into the meat/poultry industry industry for high prices.
OBSERVATON - I like the commentary by one economist on this -
John Rosen, an adjunct economics professor at the University of New Haven, told the Washington Examiner that the driving factor behind the current broad-based inflation in the economy and marketplace is simply too much money chasing too few goods. He said that during inflationary years, politicians like those in the administration try to look for “villains” to blame for the higher prices.
“But blaming producers for price increases is kind of like blaming an airplane crash on gravity. It’s technically accurate, but it’s not very informative, and it doesn’t tell you what to do,”
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts

The Justice Department has stopped negotiations with lawyers representing migrant families who were separated at the border and says it’s ready to return to court, according to one of the attorneys.
The DOJ hasn’t commented about why it stopped the talks, but the news comes after the White House came under fire over news that payments of up to $450,000 — to which President Joe Biden objected — were under consideration for the immigrant families, reports CNN.
OBSERVATION - Public reaction was caustic upon the $450K revelation. I suspect that, combined with poll numbers in the toilet and the oncoming democrat train wreck midterms drove the pull back.

Initial reports indicate that border arrests jumped 5% in November to 173,600. This headcount is far short of the record 213,000 arrested in July, but increases in the arrest of Venezuelan nationals and continued unrest in Cuba and Haiti promise larger numbers in the near future.
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Biden watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade

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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - New trials are stimulating BLM violent protests. Potentially may also leverage a reversal of Roe v Way for addition violence.

Reports coming out of the Bay Area of new measures to combat the explosion of “smash and grab’ car break-ins. In the robbery-infested areas of San Francisco and Oakland, California, some residents are so fearful of having their cars broken into that they are deliberately leaving their car trunks open so robbers won’t shatter the windows. People have even posted signs on their cars begging, “Please use the door,” or “Please Do Not Break Glass!! Nothing Inside!!”

BLM/Antifa activity continues at a low level across the country. Leftist protests focus primarily on environmental actions.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW *updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - Democrat infighting increasing. Moderate democrats now appear to have torpedoed biden’s BBB and election “reform” HR1.

The White House wants to mark the new year with a forceful push for voting rights, portraying the protection of the ballot as a battle for democracy itself. But despite a renewed emphasis from an increasingly impatient and frustrated base, prospects for legislative success still look grim. With an impending democrat disaster in the midterms. efforts to force HR1 will intensify.
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Domestic Terror - BLUE

There is a nation wide ‘threat’ promulgated on Tic Tok calling for a ‘challenge’ to phone in threats to school and/or bring weapons and kill students. Schools are taking increased precautions, though there are no specific threats identified.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*

Germany’s Defense Ministry said the frigate Bayern began a transit through the disputed waters on the way to Singapore, a trip that should take a few days. The last time a German warship sailed through the South China Sea was in 2002. This year, both France and the UK have deployed their navies to the South China Sea, and Canada joined the US in a Taiwan Strait transit back in October.

Senators gave final congressional approval Thursday to a bill barring imports from China’s Xinjiang region unless businesses can prove they were produced without forced labor, overcoming initial hesitation from the White House and what supporters said was opposition from corporations.
The United States says China is committing genocide in its treatment of the Uyghurs. That includes widespread reports by rights groups and journalists of forced sterilization and large detention camps where many Uyghurs allegedly are compelled to work in factories.
China denies any abuses. It says the steps it has taken are necessary to combat terrorism and a separatist movement.
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North Korea - BLUE *unchanged*

Government authorities have ordered the public to not show any signs of happiness while North Korea commemorates Kim Jong Il’s death. Kim Jong Il ruled North Korea from 1994 until his death in 2011, and was then succeeded by his third and youngest son, current leader Kim Jong Un.
Ten years after his death, North Koreans are being forced to observe the 11-day period of mourning where they are not allowed to laugh or drink alcohol. They added: ‘In the past many people who were caught drinking or being intoxicated during the mourning period were arrested and treated as ideological criminals. They were taken away and never seen again.
‘Even if your family member dies during the mourning period, you are not allowed to cry out loud and the body must be taken out after it’s over. People cannot even celebrate their own birthdays if they fall within the mourning period.’
OBSERVATION - Though this remembrance doesn’t pose a direct threat to the US, it does demonstrate the degree of control the NK govt has over its populations.
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Russia - ORANGE and increasing *last updated 121021*
DISCUSSION - Putin sees US/NATO weakness, especially after his phoncon with biden. Russia deploying medical and combat sustainment units to the region - a step unusual for an ‘exercise’. Trying to force NATO to respond to its “proposals” (ie demands) with lack of favorable response a justification for war.

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, NATO has reportedly failed to respond to the numerous Russian proposals for security dialogue. Russia offered the United States to agree not to create military bases in post-Soviet countries, not to use their military infrastructure and not to develop military cooperation with them. Russia also proposes NATO not to deploy additional military and weapons outside the countries in which they were in May 1997 (before the accession of the Eastern European countries to the alliance) - except in exceptional cases with the consent of Russia and NATO members.

OBSERVATION - The term “post-Soviet countries’ refers to those eastern European countries that were once under the control of the Soviet Union / Russia. Russia desires these countries to be ‘buffers’ against NATO. However, Russia’s track record so far has been to infiltrate and covertly try to install pro-Russia governments. They don’t really exempt themselves from what they warn NATO on. these “post-Soviet countries’ are being denied their sovernity to act on their own. Not going to go well with those countries who are most concerned about a Russian invasion of Ukraine and coming after them next.
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Ukraine - ORANGE *updated 121021*
Increased potential of an attack by Russia.

An awkward moment in Russian court today: a recent fraud conviction appears to confirm Russia’s army is occupying the separatist states in eastern Ukraine. The 1,300 tons of food the defendant sent there every two weeks is enough for 26,000 troops. Kremlin’s spokesperson denies that Russian troops present in Eastern Ukraine. Calls a mistake court ruling which mentions supply of Russian troops at occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.
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Belarus - YELLOW *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION - Migrant ‘crisis’ has significantly decreased. Monitoring / evaluating if it will participate with Russia in an Ukraine invasion.

Russia has been delivering upgraded BTR-80 APCs to Belarus military units.
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Poland - YELLOW trending upward *last updated 121021*
Migrant ‘crisis’ has significantly decreased. Monitoring / evaluating if it will participate against Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine. Ongoing illegal islamic migrant issues with Belarus
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Europe General - YELLOW TRENDING UPWARD *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in a Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.
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Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezebollah and Iran continues.

Indicators that Israel is preparing for / expecting biden to stab them in the back in response to Iran’s nuclear program.
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Iran - ORANGE *unchanged*

Iranian Navy & Royal Navy of Oman had an exercise yesterday in the strait of Hormuz & Gulf of Oman. IRIS Sahand, Shahid Nazeri Catamaran, a P-3F aircraft & a SH-3D helicopter as well as Omani Al Mubshir class support vessel Al Naasir & an NH90 helicopter participated in the exercise.

An EU diplomat tells repots that no real progress occurred this week in the nuclear talks with Iran. At current pace it could take 6 months to get a deal. Another meeting could take place next on December 27th.
OBSERVATION - Delay tactic. Iran has no interest in anything short of complete removal of any sanctions.
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Iraq - YELLOW trending down *last updated 121021*

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HEADS UP - Today’s and tomorrow’s posts will be the last regular ones for at least a week. I’ll be getting a new knee and hospital time/ initial recovery will inhibit my work. I’ll still be monitoring and hope to have a crystal ball view of 2022 sometime between Christmas and New Years. BTW - don’t bemoan by surgery during the holiday season, I’ve wanted to get it done while my deductables are met and I consider this kinda as a present as i”ve been waiting over 10 years for these operations.
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Wuhan virus -

Australia reported record high new COVID-19 cases on Saturday for a third day, with outbreaks growing in the two most populous states, however Prime Minister Scott Morrison continued to downplay the risks as the country eases pandemic curbs.
OBSERVATION - Obviously, the institution of wuhan ‘quarantine ‘ camps haven’t worked, and other harsh crackdown measures either have they.

The Omicron variant is “spreading at lightning speed” in Europe and will likely become dominant in France by the start of next year, French Prime Minister Jean Castex has warned. Nearly all European countries are instituting more restrictive measures to counter it. However, the severity of the variant continues to be mild with only one death still officially attributed to it.

At the epicenter of the omicron discovery, South Africa reported a much lower rate of hospital admissions amid signs that the wave of infections may be peaking, according to Bloomberg. Only 1.7% of identified COVID cases were admitted to the hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, according to local data.
That’s compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference.
This is all evidence that the strain may be milder, and that infections may already be peaking in the country’s most populous province, Gauteng.

World Health Organization European Advisory Group of Experts in Immunization former Vice President Professor Christian Perronne said that all vaccinated people must quarantine over the winter months or risk serious illness. Perronne was the Chairman of the Specialized Committee on Communicable Diseases of the High Council of Public Health.
RELATED - Israeli doctor Kobi Haviv told Channel 13 News: “95% of seriously ill patients are vaccinated. Fully vaccinated people account for 85-90% of hospitalizations. We are opening more and more COVID branches. The effectiveness of vaccines is declining or disappearing.”
OBSERVATION - Vaccine provides no defense against wuhan?

SPORT VACCINE IMPACTS - Numerous professional sports have forced their players to be ‘fully vaccinated’ and as such have created a kind of control group open for citizens to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccines. Soccer players in Europe have been suffering an abnormally number of heart issues following the jab. In the US, basketball teams ‘fully’ vaccinated are postponing games because of infections. Things are not much better in the NFL with postponements of Raiders-Browns, Washington-Eagles, Seahawks-Rams games due to COVID-19 infections. The Browns placed more than 20 players on the reserve/COVID-19 list throughout this week, including 11 starters.
OBSERVATION - Pro sports teams were one of the first to jump on the mandated jab bandwagon. This makes the ineffectiveness of these ‘vaccines’ very visual where other break through situations can get buried in other news (if reported at all).
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Fauci on Friday said the ongoing national surge in COVID infections could result in “more restrictive” measures being implemented.
During an interview on CNBC, Fauci said numbers are showing surges of both the delta and omicron variants.
“If the counts keep going up and the test positivity keeps going up, we may need to be more restrictive,” Fauci, the White House’s top medical adviser, told “Squawk Box.” “But for right now, people who are vaccinated and boosted should feel reasonably comfortable. The risk was never zero.”
OBSERVATION - The documentation is out there - vaccines are ineffective. But the threat of more ‘restrictive’ measures is ominous considering this is an election year and these measures generated a lot of questionable election law ‘changes’. Omicron hasn’t been the killer they hoped for so the fear factor is cranked up, ignoring the actual impacts.

MANDATE WAR - The Boeing Co. has suspended its own mandate for all employees to receive COVID-19 vaccines, citing a federal court’s decision to stop enforcement of President Joe Biden’s mandate requiring federal contractors to have a fully vaccinated workforce.
The 6th U.S. Court of Appeals in Cincinnati has reinstated the Biden administration’s vaccine and testing requirement for private businesses that covers about 80 million American workers. The ruling lifted a November injunction that had blocked the rule from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, which applies to businesses with at least 100 workers.
OBSERVATION - There has been a surge in companies pulling out of the biden/OSHA mandates. Not sure if this ruling will reverse the
trend, but things may stay on hold until the USSC decides on it.

IEA’s Coal 2021 report says global power generation from coal soared 9% in 2021 to an all-time high of 10,350 terawatt-hours. The rebound comes amid a rash of green policies and stupid political choices, such as decommissioning oil and gas-fired power plants and fossil fuel exploitation projects, ironically resulting in an energy crisis worldwide.
OBSERVATION - this is a set back to globalists as the stark reality that ‘green’ power cannot replace conventional power from fossil fuels. IMHO we’d be better off investing in newer, safer nuclear rather than solar/wind.
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Economy -

The DOW wasn’t too happy with the Fed outlook Friday, dropping over 500 points.

Food is still in danger for 2022. According to the USDA, 53% of the winter wheat crop is affected by drought conditions. Meanwhile, the cost of fertilizer is skyrocketing, with a 131% increase in the cost of anhydrous ammonia, 110% increase in the cost of urea, and 120% increase in the cost of potash. Some farmers report paying three times as much for nitrogen. Higher fertilizer costs are pushing some farmers away from fertilizer-intensive crops, such as wheat, and into crops like soybeans. Other farmers say they will simply cut back on fertilizer use for spring planting, which is likely to drive down yields. Lower wheat yields will also mean increased demand for cereal grains like corn, which will likely result in higher prices all around. Additionally, Chinese officials have not yet reversed an export ban on phosphate and other fertilizer components. Those restrictions aren’t expected to expire until June 2022. Increased farming costs, shifts in spring planting, and drought conditions for winter wheat will keep upward pressure on food prices next year.(FO).
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Invasion of Illegals -

Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott announced on Friday that the construction of the state’s border wall has begun. The first wall panels have gone up in Starr County in the RGV. State land, state money. This particular contractor was building Trump’s wall until Biden cancelled them. Texas is also having to procure its own fencing to same standards Trump’s wall were made because biden will not release/sell the stacks of it sitting getting rusty following his shutdown of the project.
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Biden watch -

More false memories. Biden issued a series of false remarks when speaking on a college campus Friday; claiming he helped desegregate restaurants and movie theaters during the Civil Rights Era.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Official results certified by King County Elections on Friday show Seattle City Councilmember Kshama Sawant defeated an effort to recall her from office by 310 votes.
OBSERVATION - Open communist BLM Antifa supporting councilwoman. You get what you vote for Seattle.

Wealth liberals in the Bay Area are continuing to panic because crime is still spreading into their little bubbles of existence.
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CYBER/CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

Conservatives have been establishing alternatives in the cybersphere and other outlets to put their message out following censorship from the major social media sites. Rumble, Gab, Mewe, etc have grown now to start challenging the left. Latest shock has come when Rep Nunes announced that he would retire in January to serve as the new CEO of Trump’s Truth Social company. The left cannot conceive losing control of their narrative and the conservative move to bypass the left has started some heads to explode.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas revealed Tuesday that he is working with the social media giants to combat “misinformation,” Brad Stone, senior executive editor for Bloomberg News, asked Mayorkas if he considered “misinformation” a “part of your mandate at DHS, and how much resources are you devoting to fighting misinformation such as election falsehoods or Covid disinformation?”
Mayorkas responded: “I think that’s very much within, uh, our domain, uh, misinformation, uh, pointedly, disinformation have very serious and significant ramifications for homeland security. The integrity of our election system, the security of our election system is a prime example of that. And so, um, our office of Strategy, Policy, and Plans under Rob Silver’s leadership, CISA [Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency] under Jen Easterly’s leadership, uh, John Cohen leading, uh, the office of intelligence and analysis, uh, in an acting capacity, Samantha Winograd, a senior counselor to the Secretary and our Acting Assistant Secretary for Counterterrorism, these are individuals very much involved in their respective workforces, very much involved in addressing misinformation, disinformation, and the threats that they pose to the homeland.”
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Domestic Terror -

No school shootings following the Tic tok ‘challenge’ yesterday. Here in the Redoubt some schools had threats but nothing significant.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

U.S. F-15s deployed in Campia Turzii, Romania to operate side by side with their hosts and the Italian Eurofighter detachment at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base from December 18-22.
OBSERVATION - This places them capable to fly northward to support any NATO operation in Ukraine if necessary.

The Department of Defense is slowly releasing numbers on troop separations for vaccine refusal. Across all branches, around 8,000 service members are facing separation with the majority coming from the Navy and Army. No service is reporting a successful religious exemption filing to date.
OBSERVATION - Denial of religious exemptions is a continuation of the military’s purge of conservative / red state members of the armed forces.
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China -

See SWIFT under Russia below

This week China carried out joint military exercises in the contested South China Sea in waters to the east and south of Hainan Island and in the Gulf of Tonkin. Simultaneously with the naval exercises, the PLA conducted airborne assault operations with paratroopers and drones on an island off the coast of China near the Taiwan Straits.
OBSERVATION - An indicator of progress towards an anticipated invasion are exercises. Scale and complexity of these exercises normally increase as they put the pieces together. An invasion operation of the scale necessary to capture Taiwan is intensely complex and China has very little experience coordinating all the pieces (navy, air, army) necessary to pull it off. Any screw up in that coordination can cause things to collapse. This is why many are thinking China is trying to gain surrender without having to do the military option.
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India/China -

The U.S. Defense Department is newly concerned about China’s further military buildup near the demarcation line across its Himalayan border with India, a senior defense official told Foreign Policy, after Beijing deployed long-range strategic bombers to the area last month in another apparent warning to New Delhi. Current tensions find their root when armed Indian troops with bulldozers successfully forced a halt in the construction of a road near the Chinese-Indian-Bhutanese border at Doklam in 2017, a situation that embarrassed Chinese officials.
OBSERVATION - China has increased buildup in the region to include many military bases, civilian ‘villages’ and other infrastructure.
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Russia -

INCREASED WARNING - OSINT and other analysts are noting the continued build up of military assets that go far beyond those necessary for a military ‘exercise’. Putin has seriously deployed for combat.
I’ve scrapped up some of the Russian order of battle being deployed.

PARTIAL RUSSIAN ORDER OF BATTLE -
Elements of the 8th, 20th, 41ST, and 22d Combined Arms Armies are deployed opposite of Ukraine. (NOTE - 41st added to the front line from reserve status) I suspect the 58th CAA(42d MRD) is in reserve in the Georgia region, with the 106th Airborne division in the Moscow region. Other potential reserve units consist of a mechanized infantry unit in Moldova (breakaway region of Transnistria - See Europe General below).

North to south - NOTE ; Tweaked the association and units with more recent information.
20th CAA (Northern Ukraine border)
- 144th Motorize Rifle Division (MRR)
- 3d MRR
- 106th Airborne division
41st CAA - Located on the eastern border of Belarus
- 1st Guard Tank Army are massing at Pogonovo, near Voronezh adjacent northeastern Ukraine; (SUSPECTED)
8th CAA (Opposite current Dombass conflict zone)
- Dombass ‘separatists’ An approximately division sized element that the 8th CAA provides command and control for the separatists/Russian forces in the disputed area.
- 150th MRD (consisting of two rifle regiments and two tanks regiments)
22d CAA (Crimea)
- 7th Airborne Division
- 810th Marine Infantry Brigade (Crimea)
- 3rd Air Assault Regiment (Crimea, airborne)

Russia proposes NATO not to deploy additional military and weapons outside the countries in which they were in May 1997. This Russian draft would mean leaving Baltics, Poland and the rest of the Eastern members to defend themselves alone from further Russian aggression.
OBSERVATION - This component of the Russian “proposal” will not go far. These countries clamored (as their right as independent countries) to join NATO and did. Absent NATO presence, Russia would be free to subvert these govts and if they want, military threaten them as they currently are with Ukraine.

RUMINT - More Russian military units have been sent to the border area in recent days, sources tell CNN. US and Ukrainian officials have also seen evidence that Russia has begun diverting commercial air and rail systems to support the military effort.
OBSERVATION - Trying to track these new units. Conversion of air/rail systems for military use is more concerning in the long run. This initially consists of setting up vehicles/equipment unloading facilities in forward areas to sustain combat.

Russia and China have agreed to create an alternative to the U.S.-backed Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system. SWIFT is the global messaging system that financial institutions use to clear payments. Proposed U.S. and European Union sanctions against Russia and Belarus would remove their access to the SWIFT system, and China remains vulnerable to removal from SWIFT, as well. Both Russia and China have been developing their own alternatives to the SWIFT system, in order to undermine U.S. financial dominance.
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Iraq -

With the cessation of US military operations in Iraq, Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have increased their attacks against US forces. The nature of these attacks are not specific but appear to be against logistical convoys and drone/rocket attacks outside Baghdad.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Afghanistan continues to be a sore point for biden and more damage has come out. The Wall Street Journal reported last night that State now estimates that number of Afghan allies abandoned to be 62,000 . This figure does not include family members of those interpreters and other workers who supported US efforts in Afghanistan. The true number of people at risk of reprisals from the now-ruling Taliban (or others) may well go into six figures. And that also doesn’t include the 13,000 Americans — citizens and legal permanent residents — that remain stuck behind Taliban lines months after Biden’s bug-out.

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Turkey -

Yesterday, the Turkish Lyra crashed - big time. The Central Bank of Turkey intervened in the foreign exchange market. Turkey’s BIST100 index fell 5%. The Turkish stock market hit a circuit breaker. YTD the currency has lost more than half of its value. The fall of the Lyra raises concerns of the collapse of Turkey’s economy and hyperinflation.
OBSERVATION - I”ve noted in the past Turkish economic woes that have increasingly put brakes on Turkish goal to become the next caliphate. This will increase internal unrest and likely result in initial new crackdowns on political opponents in the short term and growing anti govt protests in the longer term.
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