Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Biden's vote data is far more anomalous than Trump's
Twitter ^ | November 5, 2020 | statsguyphd

Posted on 11/05/2020 11:21:16 AM PST by karpov

I am making these tweets to explain in one place some analysis that was done last night. 1 - I was asked offline about doing Benford's on election data. I explained that this is common and a useful way to detect anomalies in data that are driven by artificial process (e.g. fraud)

2 - My student then pointed me towards a tweet that was exploring this type of analysis (but they hadn't done Benford's). So I chimed in.

3 - However, I did not know what data they used so I found a source for the context they referenced. However, I could not initially find write-ins versus non-write-ins, so I looked at candidate counts.

4 - I then wrote a quick script to gather that data, here is an example of what the data gathering portion of this process looked like.

6 - I wrote the code to produce the Benford's discrete distribution. This code looks like this.

7 - Now that I had the data and the distribution, I simply needed to perform the test. To do that, I leveraged scipy's chisquare. However, prior to doing that, you need to produce the expected result values (not just the percentages. But this is as simple.

8 - To do that, you take the total number of observations (number of numbers that the first digit counts are derived from) and multiply them by the Benford's distribution frequencies accordingly. This looks like this:

(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: benfordslaw; votefraud
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-23 next last
I have NOT reproduced the author's work, which examines if Biden's and Trump's vote totals conform to Benford's Law and I cannot vouch for it. I hope Trump has statisticians on his campaign team that can look into this.

The Python code is here. Maybe some Freepers can replicate the analysis.

1 posted on 11/05/2020 11:21:16 AM PST by karpov
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: karpov
I leveraged scipy's chisquare

Chisquare is the boss.

I haven't taken statistics in a long time, but I sure remember that statistic basically telling you if a new set of data is for all intent, bogus, given a known set of data.

2 posted on 11/05/2020 11:26:51 AM PST by PallMal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: PallMal

Could someone translate this thread in simple envy?


3 posted on 11/05/2020 11:37:27 AM PST by rfmadjr
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: karpov

Excellent!

Math doesn’t lie!

To all you criminals, including those on this site, you’re done for!


4 posted on 11/05/2020 11:37:37 AM PST by reasonisfaith (What are the implications if the Resurrection of Christ is a true event in history?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: reasonisfaith

English please


5 posted on 11/05/2020 11:39:10 AM PST by rfmadjr
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: karpov

Not a statistician but I have been wondering if there has been an analysis of precincts that tend more towards conservative down-ballot candidates or propositions, but then skew heavily to Biden over Trump, that would seem to be a contradiction and might indicate fraud at the top of the ballot.


6 posted on 11/05/2020 11:47:59 AM PST by caseinpoint (Don't get thickly involved in thin things.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: rfmadjr

When the occurrence of events is random, the associated patterns are very different from patterns associated with events that are coordinated in a deliberate and planned manner.

The fraudulent delivery of ballots leaves an identifiable pattern.


7 posted on 11/05/2020 11:49:41 AM PST by reasonisfaith (What are the implications if the Resurrection of Christ is a true event in history?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: All

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/20511

52 U.S. Code 20511.Criminal penalties

A person, including an election official, who in any election for Federal office—

(1) knowingly and willfully intimidates, threatens, or coerces, or attempts to intimidate, threaten, or coerce, any person for—

(A) registering to vote, or voting, or attempting to register or vote;

(B) urging or aiding any person to register to vote, to vote, or to attempt to register or vote; or

(C) exercising any right under this chapter; or

(2) knowingly and willfully deprives, defrauds, or attempts to deprive or defraud the residents of a State of a fair and impartially conducted election process, by—

(A) the procurement or submission of voter registration
applications that are known by the person to be materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent under the laws of the State in which the election is held; or

(B) the procurement, casting, or tabulation of ballots that are known by the person to be materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent under the laws of the State in which the election is held,

shall be fined in accordance with title 18 (which fines shall be paid into the general fund of the Treasury, miscellaneous receipts (pursuant to section 3302 of title 31), notwithstanding any other law), or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both.


8 posted on 11/05/2020 11:52:19 AM PST by Liz ( Our side has 8 trillion bullets; the other side doesn't know which bathroom to use.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: All

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/20511

52 U.S. Code 20511.Criminal penalties

A person, including an election official, who in any election for Federal office—

(1) knowingly and willfully intimidates, threatens, or coerces, or attempts to intimidate, threaten, or coerce, any person for—

(A) registering to vote, or voting, or attempting to register or vote;

(B) urging or aiding any person to register to vote, to vote, or to attempt to register or vote; or

(C) exercising any right under this chapter; or

(2) knowingly and willfully deprives, defrauds, or attempts to deprive or defraud the residents of a State of a fair and impartially conducted election process, by—

(A) the procurement or submission of voter registration
applications that are known by the person to be materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent under the laws of the State in which the election is held; or

(B) the procurement, casting, or tabulation of ballots that are known by the person to be materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent under the laws of the State in which the election is held,

shall be fined in accordance with title 18 (which fines shall be paid into the general fund of the Treasury, miscellaneous receipts (pursuant to section 3302 of title 31), notwithstanding any other law), or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both.


9 posted on 11/05/2020 11:52:20 AM PST by Liz ( Our side has 8 trillion bullets; the other side doesn't know which bathroom to use.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: karpov

10 posted on 11/05/2020 11:55:17 AM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: reasonisfaith

The problem is that most (all?) judges do not understand math nor statistics.


11 posted on 11/05/2020 11:55:52 AM PST by jrestrepo (“My rights don’t end where your fear begins" - borrowed)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: jrestrepo

They would understand if they went into a casino and rolled 10 consecutive seven’s at the craps table.


12 posted on 11/05/2020 11:57:13 AM PST by PallMal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: jrestrepo

They understand a generalized summation of it, as in post #7. All judges can understand it, every last one of them.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3902254/posts?page=7#7


13 posted on 11/05/2020 12:00:19 PM PST by reasonisfaith (What are the implications if the Resurrection of Christ is a true event in history?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: PallMal

LOL!!!


14 posted on 11/05/2020 12:02:45 PM PST by reasonisfaith (What are the implications if the Resurrection of Christ is a true event in history?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: karpov

Interesting zero hedge article here:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/why-does-biden-have-so-many-more-votes-democrat-senators-swing-states


15 posted on 11/05/2020 12:24:07 PM PST by cgbg (We shall fight on beaches, on grounds, the fields, the streets, the hills. Never surrender. WC)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS

Data-driven ping


16 posted on 11/05/2020 12:48:12 PM PST by aposiopetic
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cgbg

The evidence mounts....and that is a huge chunk.

Just no way that can happen apart from rigging.


17 posted on 11/05/2020 12:50:13 PM PST by crazycat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: karpov

There should be very few differences in the voting patterns of Ohio, with that of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.


18 posted on 11/05/2020 12:52:16 PM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: reasonisfaith
Reminds me of this clip from Casino.

As much as I hate DeNiro, Trump is DeNiro, and the guy that gets his hand smashed are the Dem cheaters who have been caught.

19 posted on 11/05/2020 1:00:10 PM PST by PallMal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: dfwgator

A liberal friend of James Woods pointed that out.Glad to see it affirmed.


20 posted on 11/05/2020 1:08:00 PM PST by georgia peach (georgia peach)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-23 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson