Question regarding Maricopa AZ early voting

twittter ^ | 10/25/2020 | Garrett archer

[ThinkingBuddha]

Maricopa County: 2016 - all early ballots returned prior to election day: Total: 1,025,703 R: 421,566 D: 327,546 O: 276,591

2020 - Early ballots Total: 1,064,013 R: 379,435 D: 421,241 O: 263,337

[cgbg]

Great discussion of early voting and fake polling here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs&feature=youtu.be

We have got this.

[Cornfed21]

Not sure I understand the concern about this. In most state analyses I’ve been reading, heavier than expected early voting for GOP is considered good news, given how heavily the Dems have been pushing mail in voting. Repubs tend to vote heavily on election day, so if the Dems dont roll up a decisive edge early, they are in trouble.

[wiseprince]

I gotta imagine AZ is filled with McCain repukes. They want to hurt Trump. Its almost as if there is no GOP to help get out the vote for Trump.

[hollywood12345]

I truly don’t think you can ever really tell too much about early voting showing up. No one knows who will show up on Election Day. Republicans usually always out perform Dems. Plus, most importantly party loyalty and Independents in all races determine. More important need to know breakdown of Super Voters left for each party..They may have shot their wad.

[PermaRag]

“Post-Debate Polls Show Donald Trump Leading in MI, AZ, and FL, from Breitbart and the Trafalgar Group.

Still, we must be vigilant and never give up.”

Particularly since every lead that even the most optimistic polls show in critical swing states (and even a few others that aren’t supposed to be ‘swinging’ at all) has Trump up only within the approximate margin of error of the poll, and WELL within the margin of Democrat vote fraud.

We’re all going to need to be vigilant (as in ‘vigilantes’) well past election night.

[wiseprince]

The early voting flipped from 2016. Reps gotta show up big election day

[wiseprince]

Honestly some of the polls just defy logic. I saw a GA poll with Biden up 7. Trump would probably be in the 1.4m vote range in that case...less votes than Bush got in 2000? Down 3 in Texas?

[Dr. Sivana]

Phoenix proper is Dem, but Mesa, Tempe, Glendale, Scottsdale are Republican. Some of the NYC/Chicago retirees in Scottsdale are bad news. Some of the CA transplants (not all) are also bad news). Republicans come out stronger on election day proper, so I wouldn’t panic.

[Dr. Sivana]

The Democrats have been heavily pushing Mail-In ballots to their base whereas Republicans are pushing in person voting.

Republicans have been pushing mail-in balloting as well. The mail-in ballot is mature in AZ, as is early voting, with decent safeguards in place. We do have a problem with the Maricopa registrar, and some of his shenanigans (changing your ballot by marking on it) have been struck down. Last time he opened up some unauthorized sites. They also extended (through courts) registration past the opening of early voting which allows for double votes in different counties, but that got appealed and shut down fairly quickly.

[hsmomx3]

I try not to put my faith in the polls but I admit I love to hear we’re ahead. I just pray people will vote for Trump.

[hsmomx3]

I know people who are registered I’s and they will not vote for Trump. These are elderly, 80 years of age. No matter how hard we try, they refuse to believe what we tell them about Biden.

[bort]

So, to give you an example, in North Carolina Democrats requested 10X the number of mail ballots than in 2016. This is not about enthusiasm. It’s about fear of China virus. The question is: Who is voting? Are they people who always vote and are now just voting early? That’s what is happening in N.C.

[WalterSkinner]

..Trump will win AZ by a larger margin than 2016. And the other side is terrified. Their sign stealing is pathetic...

[GAHeel]

Yes we pushed early voting in Az and got burned in 18 . So strategy is to wait to Election Day so they can’t steal.
GA and Texas look good

[PermaRag]

That’s what I meant by states — Texas and Georgia — that most people believe shouldn’t be ‘swinging’ yet. Within a few years they will be swinging for sure, especially Texas, but it’s not supposed to be taking place quite this soon and we all fervently believe that it isn’t.

What may be happening there, and in the other critical states, are a couple of things which (IF TRUE) are going to cause a lot of shocked faces a week from Tuesday:

[. . .putting on flameproof underwear for daring to say what MIGHT be happening. . .]

1. Republicans will turn out massively on election day and will vote in greater numbers altogether than even 2016 — but the big story will be “Well what do you know? Democrats turned out much more than expected given how many of them voted early in person or by mail, and whatever happened to that ‘cannibalizing’ stuff anyway?”

2. In the critical states one or both of the following:

a. So-called independents breaking hard against Trump and other Republicans.

b. Republicans voting for Democrat candidates in much larger numbers than Democrats voting for Republicans. In comparatively small, non-contested states (LA, AR, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, etc.), of course lots of Democrats will vote for Trump. But in the bigger, more important states it will be quite the opposite.

[Coop]

According to Wikipedia in 2016 Trump won Maricopa County by nearly 3 points while carrying AZ by almost 4 points. Using those Twitter statistics - right now, with 9 days until election day, Republicans are already at 90% of their Maricopa early vote from four years ago. (379,435 / 421,566 = 90.0%) I'd say that's a pretty darned encouraging sign for a party that's known for winning the election day vote. Democrats are definitely doing better than in 2016, but are they going to have anything left in the tank for Nov. 3rd turnout?

[Coop]

Its almost as if there is no GOP to help get out the vote for Trump.

That is patently absurd. Keep working hard for Sleepy Joe.

[Coop]

I saw a GA poll with Biden up 7.

Yes, I saw that, too. And on the same thread someone posted a GA poll from Oct 2016 showing Clinton up by 7. She lost GA by close to 6 points.

[Jess Kitting]

within the approximate margin of error of the poll, and WELL within the margin of Democrat vote fraud.

Of the two, I'm more concerned about the "margin of Democrat voter fraud."

[Jess Kitting]

I try not to put my faith in the polls but I admit I love to hear we’re ahead. I just pray people will vote for Trump.

Faith and prayer. Love it. I will be praying fervently for President Trump as well. And I too will put my faith in God, not in the polls. Thanks!