Its based on the 2018 Cruz/Beto race and it multiplies county early vote totals X Cruz/Beto percentage.
The model is Super conservative to Trump. Trump has many paths to victory if the Model shows he's losing. If the Model shows Biden he's losing, Biden is Toast.
Currently, Biden is Losing by 150K votes.
If I use 2016 as a Model, Biden is losing by 540K votes.
Biden is neither a Texan nor a fake hispanic. Add 10 points.
I love Ted! But honestly, he struggled across the line against Beto. The President helped him across. I know he was heavily outspent but I think Ted is going to be a great pillar in the Senate for conservatism. Maybe eventually the Supremes, since he is still a young man! Trump is going to do much better that Ted’s statewide count.