(Just offering this as a prudent, double-checking reminder.) :-)
Here’s what I factored in:
*Student shortfall due to 100% closed campuses in all U Cal, Cal State, Pomonoa, Harvard, Princeton, Michigan State, and many other universities, combined with only 50% open campuses at almost all other locations, should see a 30% decrease in student voting. That’s 1 to 1.5m NON voters from 2018 when students voted at a 40% rate.
*Most polls have Trump at 15-25% approval. I figure this is an actual VOTE for Trump of 12-13% but a STAY AT HOME of another 5-8%.
This translates to 3-4 million more votes that Biteme won’t get. Trump will get 2 million of them. That brings Biteme down by 4 to 5.5 MILLION just in those two categories, before you get a single vote switcher.
*In NC, FL, PA, IA, NH, NM, and NV you have had substantial (sometimes astounding) voter registration shifts. In 2012 FL had nearly a +1m D advantage. It’s down to 160,000 and falling. Ravi thinks it could be close to even on election day. Same thing in NC. It’s over 100,000 net GOP gain in PA.
Once these are factored in Murphy’s law says Trump will win the popular vote and it shouldn’t be close.
...Murphy’s Law...
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From what I’m reading and seeing, Murphy is applicable to the progs, this go-round.