Posted on 03/26/2020 2:55:12 PM PDT by Impala64ssa
British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios.
Ferguson’s report from Imperial College, which White House and other officials took seriously, said that if the U.S. and U.K. did not shut down for 18 months, and isolation measures were not taken, “we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months.” His “models” showed overflowing hospitals and ICU beds.
“For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times greater than the maximum supply in both countries,” the report reads.
Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, reportedly said the administration was particularly focused on the Imperial College report’s conclusion that entire households should stay in isolation for 14 days if any member suffered from COVID-19 symptoms.
But after tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, and businesses closed, Ferguson is now retracting his modeling, saying he feels “reasonably confident” our health care system can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in a few weeks. Testifying before the U.K.’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology on Wednesday, Ferguson said he now predicts U.K. deaths from the disease will not exceed 20,000, and could be much lower.
Alex Berenson
✔@AlexBerenson
· 10h
1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID; https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/ …
UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts | New Scientist
Neil Ferguson, whose modelling has informed the UK's coronavirus strategy, says that the need for intensive care beds will come close to, but not exceed, national capacity
newscientist.com
Alex Berenson
✔@AlexBerenson
2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
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7:14 AM - Mar 26, 2020
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Jordan Schachtel
✔@JordanSchachtel
Big thread. The man who panicked the world is now running from his doomsday projections. Shut up and quarantine crowd MIA. No need to apologize to those of us who told you not to blindly trust 1 projection. Scrutinize a little more next time before you surrender your freedoms. https://twitter.com/alexberenson/status/1243133211011690499 …
Alex Berenson
✔@AlexBerenson
1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for COVID19
Lee Smith@LeeSmithDC
3.3 M jobless claims in US as scientist walks back hysterical model warning between 2-4 M dead. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1243133211011690499 …
Alex Berenson
✔@AlexBerenson
1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID; https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/ …
Ferguson, who has since tested positive for the Wuhan virus himself, has not issued any official retraction or apologies for his incorrect predictions. The New Scientist reports Ferguson did acknowledge it was impractical to keep the country in an isolated lockdown for 12 to 18 months, especially because of the impact on the economy. “We’ll be paying for this year for decades to come,” he said.
The Imperial College report was also the basis for the modeling used by the website COVID Act Now, which local and state officials in the U.S. then used to issue “shelter-in-place” mandates. COVID Act Now, which was founded by a handful of Democratic activists in Silicon Valley, is an online mapping tool that generates models predicting coronavirus hospitalizations, which have also already proved to be
they will never admit they were wrong, they will just say the lock down stopped it.
How much additional financial hardship to millions did this fool cause? So now it’s oops? Think before you shoot your mouth off.
Merely a couple decimal places off? What is a couple orders of magnitude error?
Still probably more accurate than the climate change models.
NO walking back, you made this mess, now let us tag your name to it.
yeah making insane predictions and here on FR being called traitors and murderers and do you think there will be one apology?....not a chance...
And no shortage of freepers bought it hook, line, and sinker!
In two days there is going to be a half million dead Americans if we don’t do something!
Nancy and company should send a letter to those guys/gals too.
On another note, did anyone hear Trumps corona press conference today? He specifically said (and sounded none to happy about) that when this first came out the numbers he was being told were crazy large and that thankfully that hasn’t materialized.
I think Trump knows now, what he knew then, that this wuflu is not as bad as the hysteria has made it out to be and that his enemies tried to use it against him.
Of course Trump being Trump, he handled it the best he could. Take the advice as given to buy time to ensure his gut feel was right. Now? Back to work!!!!
What I hate is that idiots in charge, give credence to this kind of crap.
Hard-core Social Darwinists approve of seeing the lower social strata made poorer... Fleecing the rubes is a time-honoured tradition after all. (rolls eyes)
Hard-core Social Darwinists approve of seeing the lower social strata made poorer... Fleecing the rubes is a time-honoured tradition after all. (rolls eyes)
Because the mockery will be relentless and there never will come an expiration date.
Because it will always be an appropriate time to point out that the empirical evidence contradicted a disease that was going to prove historical in mortality rate and a disastrous lack of integrity was necessary prerequisite to not thoroughly evaluating that evidence.
Like the people here who insisted that the voters who refused to vote for Mitt Romney and and John McCain over securing the border, the panic pushers will be called upon to answer for their rhetoric even years from now.
Divide the totals , walk them back to present day. That should give you the magnitude of previous calculation, but what really counts is how many days difference? Exponentially, it may be not that many exponential days.
Why wouldn’t a “journalist” want to reveal the simple math to round out the breaking news? Especially during this critical and anxious point in time?
We did all this, all over the world, because of one team’s prediction?
Sheesh.
I have to wonder if it was a computer model...
I have to wonder if it was a computer model...
Yes, probably the same model which gave the dire global warming predictions. Garbage in/Garbage out
Jesse Waters on Fox News confirmed today on Fox News what I have already posted here a few times. Jesse was quoting from a doctor who has been treating covid-19 patients. The doc is now convinced how to avoid getting infected. Besides all the obvious precautions, MOST IMPORTANT THING is to avoid touching your face (eyes, nose, mouth, ears) until you had a chance to disinfect your hands thoroughly.
My original theory behind not touching face was that the skin on palm and fingers is tough and virus cells cannot easily penetrate. But if virus cells are on your hands due to touching anything other infected people might have touched and you scratch your nose or bite your nails, the virus gets into your body.
The science isn’t settled?
California and NY State will say their brave governors saved their states in spite of the evil Trump.
Then, they will depose of Biden and nominate and run these 2 liars/losers governors for Potus and Veep.
Had anyone told the Governor of NY, the Mayor of NYC and the Mayor of LA? Didn’t think so. Will the MSM ask these Democrats why they feel the sky is falling? NOPE.
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