Posted on 03/23/2020 5:44:30 AM PDT by Its All Over Except ...
The mortality rate for the coronavirus in the US continues to fall as more and more Americans are able to be tested.
12 days ago the US coronavirus mortality rate was 4.06 Today the mortality rate is down to 1.25%!
4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases) 3.69% March 9 (26 of 704) 3.01% March 10 (30 of 994) 2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295) 2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695) 2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247) 1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954) 1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680) 1.6% March 17 (116 of 7,301) 1.4% March 19 (161 of 11,329) 1.25% March 20 (237 of 18,845)
Yossi Getetner posted a list earlier in the week. Thanks to the fraudulent numbers by the WHO the global economies are in a meltdown.
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(Excerpt) Read more at domigood.com ...
Brit Hume provide that 4.06% and it has dropped to 1.25% in less than a month.
If we had done nothing it may not have been an exaggeration.
Hey, that’s tongue in cheek right there, man, c’mon now.
Lots of sloppy raw numbers, every country has different definitions, the vaunted worldometer.info reporting that in the US 171 people have recovered. Yes, 171. That number is so incredibly bogus, meantime reporting that 7,000 plus in Italy have recovered.
I liked worldometer when it first came out, now I’m beginning to wonder if it’s run by the Chinese Red Army as a tool to panic people, and crash our economy..
Sorry to hear about your wife. Prayers.
I just want to let you know that I chickened out on my outing. I read that the Surgeon General said this week is going to be bad, and that made me rethink how badly do I want to go to the store.
Maybe I’ll change my mind again later, world has gone crazy, or maybe it’s just me!
Take care, ZinGirl, glad to know your out there. There is comfort to be had here, it’s a good place to read.
You probably won’t have time to be angry...you’d be dead. Remember, everyone will eventually be dead. You are more likely to get hit by a speeding car when you go out.
the vaunted worldometer.info reporting that in the US 171 people have recovered. Yes, 171. That number is so incredibly bogus,
No way, I can always carve out some time to be angry!
The study states that up to 86% of cases are asymptomatic on extremely mild (missing any detection). In the US where testing has been sparse to say the least those cases have by and large not been picked up. Once those are added into the denominator, along with those that either don’t have enough viral load to test positive and those previously infected, the mortality rate will be vastly lower.
Another nasty panic-inducing practice of worldometer.info is that when you click on an individual country, the very first of a series of graphs they present is “total cases.” The unsuspecting lay person may not realize there is a huge difference between “total cases” and “current cases.” By definition, it is mathematically impossible for this curve to have a downward trajectory. It is a poor measurement of what is currently occurring.
And then let us realize that “current cases” Is distorted in an upward way (drastically in the case of the US) because, per their reporting, almost no one in the US recovers from Covid. According to them, 7 people in the entire US recovered yesterday. Clearly this is utter BS..
Be careful where you get numbers from.
The study states that up to 86% of cases are asymptomatic on extremely mild (missing any detection). In the US where testing has been sparse to say the least those cases have by and large not been picked up. Once those are added into the denominator, along with those that either don’t have enough viral load to test positive and those previously infected, the mortality rate will be vastly lower.
Soaked that into by brain some 45 years ago.
Also why a fired bullet does not fly indefinitely.
I would encourage you to look at the three threads that I have posted using validated data regarding trends. These are my data driven opinions. I am not just pulling numbers out of my rectum
+++++
OK. I did that. I read your long post from yesterday. So I agree that you have some background in this area. I just don’t agree with you on the supposed slowing of the growth in U.S. infection and death rates that you seem to see.
We may be looking at different data sets. I’m not paying much attention to how the world is doing for at least a couple of reasons: I believe nothing the Chinese tell us and there is the excellent but unusual performance by South Korea. Both distort the world level data.
I use the Wikipedia articles for the U.S. for my data. Your mileage may vary but that is my source.
The U.S. is currently running infection rates in the 35% to 45% range. 38% yesterday. 49% a few days ago. We have experienced very close to an order of magnitude increase in declared infections in the last week and over a 6-fold increase in fatalities in the same timeframe.
So where do I look to find a slowdown, particularly one that will get us to South Korean infection and death rate levels in the next 4 weeks?
I really don’t think you can answer that. The data just doesn’t support that view. I wish it did but, with all due respect, I just don’t see it.
Damn, I hate physics! LOL
:-)
The number of people infected is probably vastly under-reported, you have a lot more people in the US in the 20-30 age range that 70-100, yet only a minuscule amount of REPORTED cases from them, but there are undoubtedly lots and lots of them asymptomatically spreading.
And that is mostly good news. Wouldn’t surprise me at al. If half the kids in the USA are carriers. They touch everything they like everything the hug everyone, (I’m not complaining, I have a dozen fantastic grand-squirts), I honestly think that herd immunity is happening very quickly. 10% of the population may have had it already, and if so, it will be 90% by May.
South Korea may be doing well because at the beginning, they had a big number of “seed” cases existing in very social people, and so lots and lots of spreaders almost immediately, which makes it likely it has gone through the population much faster
Thank you for your commentary. As I said in my threads, I will declare my opinions and my judgments but I am putting emotion aside and letting the data lead. That being said, I think that looking at the US only is not understanding the context. I may even agree with you that the China data is a load of crap, but I have run most statistical models to exclude the data as outlying, and I the data just does not support excluding it. I actually think that Iranian data is more crap, but it is what it is.
What I do know is that this exists within a contextual timeline. We can look to South Korea for a contextual timeline. 6 - 8 weeks in a population. Thats all it seems to be.
So here is a list of my unresolved questions:
1. TREATMENT ARM — it appears that there is now data validating hydroxycholorquine. In actually trials, there is a statistically significant reduction in time to clearance of viremia (75%-24%) at day #5 of treatment, and reduction of severity if illness. Lets assume we have a treatment that reduces infection 66% and reduces overall severity. This expands hospital capacity by reducing demand, instead of increase supply
2. Unsaturated kinetics of testing vs Saturated. Follow me on this one. Using a fixed amount of tests per day, the number of tests remains saturated by what we see in the community. What DOES appear is that somewhere between 4% - 10% of people with symptoms that are worrisome actually test (+). That means 90 % of symptomatic people are suffering from something else. NYC is very interesting. They actually may have more tests than demand. This is “unsaturated” in my terms — which is to suggest non zero order kinetics. What this means is if everyone is tested we may see emergence of actaul cases — such as the panic driving the vast majority to test, we will start to pick up the Mild, asymptomatic, and self limited cases that would not be tested. Because any definition these are mild, the case RATE will go up, but the critical and death rate will plummet. Therefore we may see the actual emergence of what exists in the wild.
The corollary to this is that As of now there are +5825 NEW cases today in America (approximately 1200 on eastern seaboard). 5085 comes from New York. There were +9300 cases yesterday. Understanding that a growth factor of 1.00 - 1.10 demonstrates a linear instead of exponential growth, the number that would define linear growth today would be new cases < 10,250 plus or minus a few.
Italy has taken to dropping its numbers once a day around 1400 out time. They had a drop in new cases yesterday suggesting a regressing case load. If there is a second data point today, then I think a trajectory may be establishes, which also allows us to establish a more realistic timeline.
LAST THOUGTHS: We can start to predict that is occurring. Lets continue to let the data drive our analysis.
Seems to me that there are many ways that statistics can be found:
Total number of ‘positive’ cases versus the ENTIRE population.
Total number of deaths versus positive cases.
Total number of deaths versus total population.
I don’t have a clue hoe false positives would factor in....or how false negatives would factor in.
However-—in Lombardy region of Italy:
3095 were dead out of 25,515 positive cases known. That is a 12% death rate...also called a mortality rate, IIRC.
If you do the calculations against the entire population, it will make the smallest percentage number, I think.
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