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Is that more of a function of ramping up testing abilities?

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When we had no tests, we had no disease.

Then we had tests and we had disease.

The more tests we have the more disease we have.

Occam’s Razor: The tests cause the disease.

It could be both. It's also a function of the natural progression that this sort of thing follows. Let's go to the video tape: SARS.

You'll notice that early on, the rate of growth is quite high. And then, the growth rate tails off and it eventually stops.

The daily rate of growth in confirmed cases in the US has averaged 43% for all of March; it was 11% prior to March. If I consider this chart and project the US confirmed cases as a function of today's count and the rate of growth in Hubei (if you believe their data) from the end of January (which is similar to the US growth rate today), it's likely the US could see 40.5k confirmed cases in one month (April 13)...but then it'd peter out.

Now, 40.5k cases out of 329MM people isn't bad - it is 0.012% of the nation. It is a LARGE number, to be sure, but it is smaller than the entire 67,786 case count for Hubei.

Now, certainly you'd expect with the entire nation being in lockdown, people obsessively washing hands and elbow bumping, and shifting their entertainment from bar hopping to Netflix streaming, it is possible the 40.5k count may be lower.

But at a minimum, this analysis suggests it's going to get worse...but then level off. And then in 9 months, we'll have a CoronaBaby boom!