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538: Dem Primary is over, Biden is nominee (93% certainty, 2300 del)
Five Thirty Eight Poll Aggregator and Analysis Site ^ | March 9, 2020 | Nate Silver

Posted on 03/09/2020 6:57:54 AM PDT by nwrep

WHAT, WHO: Biden has 93% chance of being Dem nominee

HOW: Estimate of 2300 delegates (1991 needed for majority)

WHEN: WA, MI, MO, MS - all forecasted to go to Biden this week

Bernie is <1% chance now.


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: michigan; mississippi; missouri; washington
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Nate Silver declares it is over.
1 posted on 03/09/2020 6:57:54 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: nwrep

No Milwaukee DNC Convention chaos :(


2 posted on 03/09/2020 7:03:10 AM PDT by JerseyDvl ("If you're going through hell, keep going.")
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To: nwrep
Biden is imploding in front of our eyes and won't last until the convention.

Plan on Hillary stealing it again.

3 posted on 03/09/2020 7:04:46 AM PDT by G Larry (There is no great virtue in bargaining with the Devil)
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To: nwrep

Hillary wins Democratic Party nomination again, 100% certainty.


4 posted on 03/09/2020 7:05:40 AM PDT by thoughtomator (... this has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.)
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To: nwrep

Nate Silver declares it is over.


Well, didn’t he say that about Trump pretty much right up to the election?


5 posted on 03/09/2020 7:07:17 AM PDT by chaosagent (Remember, no matter how you slice it, forbidden fruit still tastes the sweetest!)
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To: chaosagent

No. That was the Huffington Post. Nate Silver said that the Huffington Post is stupid and it’s 1/3 Trump 2/3 Hillary.


6 posted on 03/09/2020 7:10:13 AM PDT by Krosan
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To: nwrep

Nate Sliver


7 posted on 03/09/2020 7:13:21 AM PDT by headstamp 2 (There's a stairway to heaven, but there's also a highway to hell.)
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To: JerseyDvl

The Bernie Bros will make it interesting.


8 posted on 03/09/2020 7:14:40 AM PDT by bwest
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To: JerseyDvl

No Milwaukee DNC Convention chaos :(

****************

And no need for Biden to have to face Bernie in debates which would have exposed Biden’s decreasing mental acuity.


9 posted on 03/09/2020 7:28:28 AM PDT by Starboard (has so far)
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To: nwrep

Nate has been right on occasion, and he is fairly likely to be right now. However, 93 percent? Really? I wouldn’t give Joe Biden a 93% chance of being able to find the Democrat National Convention in July.


10 posted on 03/09/2020 7:29:23 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed")
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To: nwrep
Nate Silver declares it is over.

Why don't they just wait until the G.d D..n elections actually take place?? I am SO SICK of hearing about polls on both sides.....

11 posted on 03/09/2020 7:30:21 AM PDT by Mopp4
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To: nwrep

Will Biden be able to speak real words at all in 6 months?


12 posted on 03/09/2020 7:49:08 AM PDT by Pollard (If you don't understand what I typed, you haven't read the classics.)
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To: Mopp4

Some of this could be push polling, intended to convince people that it’s all over, so vote for Biden in upcoming primaries to confirm that allegedly settled fact.


13 posted on 03/09/2020 7:54:57 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Pollard
Will candidate Biden be able to speak real words on the campaign trail?

Not to worry....the DNC is planning close-captioning subtitles, visual displays
and on-site interpreters that let the electorate know what Baffled Biden really said.

14 posted on 03/09/2020 7:57:41 AM PDT by Liz (Our side has 8 trillion bullets; the other side doesn't know which bathroom to use.)
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To: Liz

With this whole Deep Fake video thing, the dems and msm could get together and show him on TV a lot but when it comes debate time, they better find a doppelganger.


15 posted on 03/09/2020 8:00:12 AM PDT by Pollard (If you don't understand what I typed, you haven't read the classics.)
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To: Pollard

The impact of debates has been incredibly over-rated. Mostly because the media try to make themselves appear relevant.

SlowJoe has been the least effective of all the Dem candidates in debates and he’s probably going to win the nomination..


16 posted on 03/09/2020 8:03:03 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: Dilbert San Diego

“...intended to convince people that it’s all over, so vote for Biden in upcoming primaries...”

Good catch. Everyone loves a winner.

rwood


17 posted on 03/09/2020 8:09:42 AM PDT by Redwood71
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To: nwrep
WHEN: WA, MI, MO, MS - all forecasted to go to Biden this week

None of the Democrat primaries are winner-take-all. Delegates are assigned by the proportion of the popular vote. So it is nearly meaningless to say which states were won by a Democrat candidate.

18 posted on 03/09/2020 8:17:01 AM PDT by kidd
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To: Pollster1

“Nate has been right on occasion, and he is fairly likely to be right now. However, 93 percent? Really? I wouldn’t give Joe Biden a 93% chance of being able to find the Democrat National Convention in July.”

I would think you would have to shave a few more points off of that 93% since he just might not be alive by the time of convention. He is of that age and with his mind slipping. who can tell!


19 posted on 03/09/2020 8:17:56 AM PDT by amnestynone (We are asked by people who do not tolerate us to tolerate the intolerable in the name of tolerance.)
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To: nwrep

It is clear that Biden is getting a full court press on his behalf by all the “powers that be (MSM and old Dems.). Bernie is getting all the negative press and Joe has all the endorsements. They will build a cabinet around him and he will begin to wear a hearing aid to tell him what to say.

That and Virus negativity will make the next few months very good for Joe.


20 posted on 03/09/2020 8:38:18 AM PDT by JeanLM (Obama proves melanin is just enough to win elections)
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