Posted on 02/28/2020 6:34:54 AM PST by TigerClaws
Process, what could go wrong ...
Related:
Coronavirus: CDC didn’t immediately test coronavirus case
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-cdc-didn-t-immediately-test-covid-19-case-n1143996
PING
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From a medical professional:
For my non-medical friends in the developed world, it’s time to think about coronavirus (COVID-19) coming to a neighborhood near you in the coming weeks.
Firstly, some perspective. COVID-19’s mortality rate in China is ~ 2%, but prior epidemics show that mortality rates for infectious diseases change in relation to the healthcare infrastructure present in the affected area. Using the 2014 ebola outbreak as an example, mortality rate in the developing world was ~50%, but 17% in the developed world. No vaccine or direct treatment was available for anyone, only supportive care like intravenous fluids, mechanical ventilators, etc., which developed countries have in abundance relative to west and central Africa. A similar effect of supportive care would likely render COVID-19 mortality rate at (0.17/0.5) x (0.02) = 0.7%, e.g., in the ballpark of yearly influenza mortality in the US (0.1-0.6%).
So, essentially, you can think of COVID-19’s effect as an extra flu season for the year. Whether concerns are overblown, or quarantine efforts are unsuccessful or unnecessarily actioned, only time will tell, but it seems clear that society will react with significant disruption over and above the direct disruption and threat COVID-19 poses, as predicted by prospect theory. Expect closings of school, work, public events, and such, even if they aren’t completely necessary.
The actions you can take to protect yourself from COVID-19 should sound familiar, as they are similar to what you can do to prevent influenza infection:
- Wash your hands often—before and after you eat, go out, work, train, etc. Use soap and water. Antibacterial soaps are a waste of time.
- If you are sick, stay home. Take fluids, acetaminophen/paracetamol (if your health problems allow), and lots of rest. If you can breathe and keep fluids down, then don’t go to the clinic to infect everyone else. Call your clinic for advice if you need it, instead of visiting in person. If you can’t breathe or can’t keep fluids down, then skip the clinic and go to A&E/the Emergency Department. Wash your hands when you return home.
- If you are sick, and have to go out, wear a surgical mask. If you are not sick, then don’t bother with a mask, as it won’t help you at all. The masks work only when they’re over the face of the infected. Don’t waste masks, as shortages are expected—leave them for the sick and for surgeons. Wash your hands some more instead.
- There is (currently) no direct treatment or vaccine for COVID-19. Wash your hands.
- Don’t forget to get the tips of your fingers and under your fingernails when you wash your hands.
- If you wonder if it’s a good time to wash your hands, then wash your hands.
Lastly, if you’re wondering who to listen to amidst the political gobbledygook, listen to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, or any career scientist at the CDC. Their words on COVID-19 are as good as gold. As we learn about COVID-19 and advice changes, and if you hear something from them that is different from what I’ve said, listen to them instead of me.
But should I wash my hands?
I hate to say it, but...
Now, when I see articles like the one you linked, I have to ask “Are they trying to hurt President Trump?”. It’s sad when that possibility must now be considered.
VermontLT nailed it: STAY OUT OF THE HOSPITAL
“Employees at the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say the mood in their office is somber.
The employees of one of the largest federal agencies in Atlanta said they’re concerned about job safety, funding and new public health policies under Donald Trump’s presidency.
At the General Muir deli across the street from the CDC, a few employees talked to WABE, asking that their names not be used. One microbiologist said her colleagues were crying in the hallways.
“It’s really sad,” she said. “It’s depressing. I’m eating a bagel to try and be happy.””
This can’t still be operative, can it?
Isn’t this the way they made it impossible to detect community transmission and, likely, the vast majority of cases, until now?
I’m trying to tell FR members they need to prep.
WHO is run by a Marxist third worlder. CDC is just another incompetent government agency.
Information about a pandemic is a bit beyond “hurting Trump.” Your life, my life, our families’ lives are at stake. CDC needs to get its act together.
I would hope this would get ‘beyond politics’ but apparently not.
Sure looks like a trap to me.
A trap that inevitably seems will be responsible for the deaths of many Americans too, btw.
A lot of information on this thread:
https://mobile.twitter.com/dailydigger19
Warning: Some graphic fights over masks and food and a Chinese man hanged himself in one of the videos.
It didn’t take a rocket scientist to know that CV patients were in that area causing potential exposure. So, yes it makes one wonder.
Only 1/3 of those screened coming into the country are detectible. It has an incubation period of up to 24 days (though 95% are showing symptoms within 14 days).
There are also plans in place to quarantine U.S. cities. I’d expect New York would be a big risk city given the international travel, close-quarters living, and public transportation system.
Worse, word of the lockdown of Wuhan got out and millions of Chinese fled the city to the rest of the country.
Then, the TSA just asked folks flying in if they’d been to that area or not. Of course, they lied.
The Twitter thread above has a lady that said she and her husband had been tested in Japan for COVID-19 and were awaiting results but decided to lie and say there were clear.
We need an early summer. The virus doesn’t do well in hot temperatures.
That process is so complicated it looks like any non-China connected person has to be at death’s door before they’ll be tested.
That may not matter today, because treatment is supportive, rather than curative. But, in the hopeful case that Gilead’s remdesivir (sp?) is therapreutic, it might be a life/death difference.
Of course, it will initially be in short supply, as will reliable coronavirus tests, so (to quote Hillary)”What difference does it make?”
The death rate globally is at 3.53% according to Forbes.
“I’m trying to tell FR members they need to prep.”
We spooled up prep efforts years ago. Unfortunately, we considered putting the house on the market and have stored a lot of “stuff” at a distant storage center. We’ll be visiting the center to recover that stuff this weekend. Also be resupplying cooking/heating fuel. Most other things I think we’re good on. Thanks for the warning...it’s a good suggestion.
If you make two HUGE assumptions:
ONE: China is honestly reporting cases and outcomes.Try running the numbers with people who are through the full course of the disease as the denominator. That is, the people recovered and dead, not everyone who is still sick.TWO: EVERYONE who is a confirmed case will live.
For Hubei the REPORTED numbers are 26,403 recovered, 2,682 dead.
(2682/(2682+26403)*100=9.2%
The textbook formula is for historical epidemics, one where everyone who was sick has finished the full course of the disease, either by recovering or dying.
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