500 Medical Workers In Wuhan Have Been Infected And Experts Are Warning Of An Exponential Rise In Coronavirus Cases

IWB ^ | Michael Snyder

[davikkm]

If the coronavirus is spreading this rapidly among hospital workers, what chance do the rest of us have? What we are witnessing in China right now is absolutely unprecedented. Despite the lockdown of major city after major city, this mysterious new coronavirus continues to spread like wildfire, and Chinese government officials are becoming visibly frustrated. The number of confirmed cases has nearly doubled over the past seven days, and that is extremely concerning. But even more alarming is the unofficial information which has been leaking out of China. According to the South China Morning Post, “at least 500 hospital staff in Wuhan” have now been infected…

At least 500 hospital staff in Wuhan had been infected with the deadly new strain of coronavirus by mid January, multiple medical sources have confirmed, leaving hospitals short-staffed and causing deep concern among health care workers.

While the government has reported individual cases of health care workers becoming infected, it has not provided the full picture, and the sources said doctors and nurses had been told not to make the total public.

There have been numerous reports that indicate there isn’t enough equipment to sufficiently protect medical personnel in Wuhan, and that is probably the biggest reason why this number is so high.

[Ancesthntr]

“Unless the mortality rate comes up a lot I just cant all that scared of this virus. The regular flu has much higher kill rate.”

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With all due respect, you are simply wrong.

The “regular flu” has approximately a 0.1% mortality rate for ALL people infected. Keep in mind that most infected never go to a doctor, much less a hospital - they handle it on their own with sleep, vitamins, OTC meds, etc. That is a measure of how non-lethal it is (at least among those younger and healthier). Of those who go to the hospital (in which case you are already pretty sick), the mortality rate is about 10%.

The Wuhan virus is about 2.5% lethal IF, IF, IF you:

a) believe that the Chinese even know themselves (because not everyone sick has been tested, and they don’t test people who already died); and

b) believe that the Chinese are telling us whatever they know to be the truth (and I don’t think that anyone believes that); and

c) calculate the death rate by the very simple method of reported deaths/reported cases. That’s a fine method if the outbreak is OVER. But it is utterly unrealistic (i.e. it understates the death rate) while the outbreak is still ongoing, because the disease doesn’t kill people instantaneously. It takes at least many days, and likely several weeks. So people reported as newly infected on Monday of this week will have an extremely low death rate right now (Friday afternoon); Wait a week or two and look at those EXACT same people, and the death rate will assuredly be higher.

That all said, even if you assume that the 2.5% figure is correct (which I don’t, but this is an assumption), that is STILL 25 times higher of a mortality rate than the “regular flu.” NOT less lethal - MORE lethal, by a LOT.

[Vermont Lt]

I think you might be missing an important aspect of this:

This virus is much more contagious. Nearly twice as many people are hospitalized. About 1/5 of them need ICU treatment, including ventilation and breathing apparatus.

No, you probably won’t die from this. But if you need any type of medical treatment during this, you are shit out of luck. The system will be overwhelmed. Take a stroll around a hospital now—in the middle of flu season. There are no available beds. Add a few hundred people to every facility.

The truck drivers that bring your food won’t be driving around. People will shut down shops, stores, and factories. Schools would close. The economy will simply stop.

I guess you can go out with a mask—but those have not been available since the middle of January.

There is a lot more about this which should generate some concern. Note: I am not saying panic. I am saying you should be thinking about what steps you might take if this breaks out in the US. But, be sure everyone else will be thinking the same thing at the same time.

[DiogenesLamp]

Fake news is a bit harsh. Do expect to get accurate numbers at this point.

This thing is frightening. Something I saw last week was definitely unsettling. It was a commentary from someone who knows someone from Hong Kong. I'll repost it here.

Chat with acquaintance in HK.

1. If you don't keep your shoes outside of your house or scrupulously manage them just inside your door and handle them as if you were removing a diseased kidney from an AIDS patient, including immediately scrubbing your hands, forget about the masks, etc. Streets are always filthy, and now they are contagious.
2. 27 Chinese cities are under quarantine, including three major coastal cities. This is a catastrophe.
3. Economic activity has been essentially zeroed out. He has knowledge of a large liquor/food distribution company. Revenues of that company have fallen to zero. Not down, zero. No one is eating in restaurants or bars. Other consumer businesses are likewise in free fall. And no business, not even Microsoft or Apple, can survive for more than a month or two with zero revenues. Zero, not down, zero. Entire factory districts are empty. Not just one factory, miles of them.
4. The Chinese banking system will collapse. When your loan customers have zero revenues, you have zero revenues. Of course, the government will print money, but so what.
5. All modern distribution systems are built around just in time delivery. If you quarantine a modern city for more that 48 hours, everything starts to run out.
6. The quarantines make no sense in light of what has been publicly stated about the disease. To be effective, a quarantine must be longer than the incubation period and the infectious period. That period means probably a month. China will not survive a month long quarantine.Thus, why bother? 7. The gov is now driving large trucks up and down city streets with fogging equipment. Giant clouds of who knows what.
7. HK has four routes in, and weirdly, only three have been cut off. It appears, that keeping a road open into HK (heavily guarded and checked, but nevertheless open) is more important to the commies than keeping 27 huge cities open. Hmmm..... He observes that HK has always been the way out of China.
8. He was already in the US when the SHTF, his issue is he can't go back (not that he's all fired up about that). But he was standing in the local big airport, and heard a US customs person ask a person of Chinese persuasion if they had been to Wuhan in the last month. My friend almost burst out laughing. A. Saying yes is an automatic 14 day quarantine, so no one in their right mind answers yes. And the US has no means of verifying the answer. B. Just Wuhan?
9. The Party's response to the published nature of the disease is entirely disproportionate. The Party's actions are consistent with an end of the world disease. Not a bad case of the flu. 27 closed cities?

Fogging trucks? If one assumes the leadership has a reasonable level of IQ, an instinct for self preservation, and some reasonable level of IQ among its advisers, something much worse than a bad case of the flu is on the loose.

Other than that, everyone's doing great. /I'm not buying masks, I'm buying disposable booties.

//oh, forgot. The countries sending aircraft in for their nationals are not being nice. They are being scared sh*tless that said nationals will make it back into their home countries on their own, if left to their own devices. The planes are flying prisons.

[xp38]

Hunker down and Freep til the end!

[Vermont Lt]

Thats been going around for a while. Hong Kong still stands.

I am all about being concerned, but not rushing to conclusions without a lot more facts. Several years ago we had a weeklong blizzard/ice storm. I never let the preps work down below a month since then. That simply makes common sense.

No need to worry about this killing you. You just need to make sure to stay away from the ugly masses for a month.

[DiogenesLamp]

I know people two people have been sent home already that werent Asian. they said it really sucked and I’m sure it did but they survived and they’re good.

And they had the Corona Virus?

And they have recovered?

How does anyone know that they aren't still infectious?

[DiogenesLamp]

+1.

[Kozak]

No the flu does not have a higher mortality rate. Right now ( if you believe the Chinese numbers) Corona has a 3% mortality rate.

The flu typically has 0.2%

[Starcitizen]

And that’s a bad thing? Why?

[LilFarmer]

I know zip about math, but it was something like 3rd degree polynomial, whatever that means

[Starcitizen]

The Phillipines numbers are not to be trusted. Dutae has ordered the Health Services to under report and not investigate ChiCom virus cases, as not to offend Winnie Xi Pooh.

In fact, Dutae is lifting the travel ban against Chinese Communists, while banning Taiwanese. I’m sure ordered by Winnie Xi Pooh.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[null and void]

FAKE NEWS - the number is now 1700...

500 is sooo yesterday, like when the article was written...

[null and void]

Will you worry when half the people in NYC try to get out?

[grumpygresh]

It’s an indication that this infection is very serious. Even though you don’t care about their economy or Chinese deaths, you should be concerned about the effect they have on the world including US. Long incubation period means that it’s is likely that asymptomatic carriers have already spread this throughout the world. Moreover, it will be tough to stop secondary spread in India and Africa and these people are still entering US.

You might also care that China produces a lot of pharmaceuticals and especially antibiotics needed for surgery and bacterial infections.

[allendale]

Key politically incorrect question that has yet to be asked and answered. Are non Chinese Westerners living and working in Wusan becoming infected and dying at the same rate as endemic , genetic Chinese? Understanding a given populations genetic susceptibility to any virulent pathogen is critical in determining if it remains a pandemic or epidemic. By asking and investigating those questions, even scientists and physicians are subject to career ending accusations of racism.

[ConservativeMind]

Apparently, Asians were thought to have 5X the receptors for entry for this virus. However, that was a sample of one and he was a smoker.

Another improvised evaluation showed Asians didn’t necessarily have that number of receptors and it was smokers that had more.

But the first study showed two other smokers not from Asian heritage that didn’t have enhanced numbers of receptors.

So it’s not really known. Some people have more receptors. Could be me or you, it would seem.

The studies:

https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3815061/posts?page=179#179

[dp0622]

Had the virus. Recovered.

You’re asking the wrong guy if they are still infectious:)

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

TY. Have a relative in Singapore on biz and am really worried.

[Paul R.]

Well, aside from any kind of civilized concern for human life, when you get sick and there are no meds because the supply chains* have broken down, the economy worldwide is disrupted, and there is no way to ramp up production here quickly enough...

You may have a different outlook.

I’m not saying that WILL happen, but if this thing goes badly, which is certainly possible, it may.

I suggest you spend the weekend doing some research. The “Live” coronavirus threads here are a beginning. Start a couple weeks ago, throw out the wild stuff on one side and the “What, me worry?” on the other, and see what you are left with. Be sure to catch some of the discussion regarding “supply chains”* in recent threads.

*A misnomer, IMO, but I use it here because it is the common term.

Sorry to ruin your weekend. Learning isn’t always all “fun”, but it can be quite valuable. It can even save your life.