Posted on 02/06/2020 9:59:51 PM PST by davikkm
My mom was born in1908. She contracted and survived the great of 1918.
correction: She survived the influenza epidemic
Who hasn’t been advised to get the flu shot?
What are they supposed to do? Declare martial law and forcibly inject us?
Change all the media to 24/7 promotion of the flu shot?
This silliness about the flu is going to cost lives if it results in people not taking precautions against the new coronavirus.
Both my parents were born in 1918. Both survived the pandemic. I've read that everyone who worked in the cinnamon factory did too.
They just make up the numbers about the flu in the US. Anyone honestly believe they test all these supposed victims before or after they die?
The figures the Chinese government is providing are wildly unreliable, at both ends of the spectrum.
That said, using those dubious figures, they suggest a horrendous mortality rate of around 26%, down from 35-40%, plus lung scarring, at least with Chinese health care.
The 2% mortality rate is bad math, but even at that, it is *much* higher than the flu in your example. Calculating dead/growth is how you get 2%, and that is just wrong.
The mortality rate is not the number of those who have died so far divided by the number who have been infected. Is is the proportion of those infected who will die because of it, or who will die because of it within a certain time frame. Early on, that is done by taking cohorts and within the cohort determining how many die, vs how many recover.
For today, the official number is 638 dead to 1764 recovered - but for some reason only 20 dead outside of Hubei province with 897 recovered. For Hubei that is a 43% fatality rate. Outside it is a 2.2% fatality rate.
That too is some serious divergence which requires explanation.
Of course I don’t believe the Chinese numbers. That was my point - to be able to tell us that out of 11+ million people they have counted 457 (or 652 or whatever) people don’t to the last digit.
Although even if they said they estimate 450 to 650 have died, I still wouldn’t believe them.
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